Viewing Year: 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 13, 1959 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - March 13, 1959 page 2
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, -W–a-l-sltnocn.-&-C–o-. FILE COpy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 13, 1959 The Dow-Jones Industrial average reached new high territory on Friday at an intra-day high of 618.80. Technical work indicates a possible 625 on this short-term mov , followed by a consolidating period before the advance is resumed. Despite the sharp ad- vance, there are still no signs of any long-term technical vulnerability. Would continue to ignore the various averages and concentrate on the action of individual issues. Below is a review of all of the issues on my recommended list. These recommend tions are for the intermediate term holder whose objective is sizable long-term capital gains of six months to two years. These recommendations are not designed for the short- rerrtftra-der in moves-of a few points. – .. AMERICAN CAN (49) has done little marketwise since its original recommendatio at 42. However, the stock has a sizable long-term upside potential and support close to the market, so there appears to be a minimum of downside risl. Yield is slightly over 4. BUY-HOLD BUTLER BROS. (39) was recently recommended at around present levels. Divi- dend has been increased to 45 quarterly to yield 4.2. Technical pattern suggests a slow rise to the 60 level. BUY-HOLD CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, ST. PAUL & PACIFIC (28) Recently recommended in the 28-26 range. This rail has very sizable upside potentials because of possible merger developments. Has had wide moves back and forth in the 30-10 range since 1951. Ability to break out of this would give a very constructive technical indication. Stock yields 5 1/2 at present dividend rate of 1.60 annually. Very attractive, in my opinion. BUY-HOLD CL,'ETT PEABODY (55) Recently recommended O An important manufacturer of men's apparel, but also has a et process,Clupak, with an excellent earnings potential. Stock has a ov 8 a share and yield of over 4. Technical pattern suggests s over the longer term. BU.Y- BQLD . . . . .. FAMILY FINANCE (32) The to a a 0 advance from our originally . action may be slow, but can b . desiring income. Yields approximately 50/0. HOLD FLINTK a ecommended at 46, the stock still suggests higher l.L…. ,ie ' . HOLD most of the oils, this stock has shown below-average action since my recommen n at 28. However, a very strong potential base pattern appears to be building up in this stock. Timing is difficult, but patience should be rewarded in this issue. Ability to move above the October high of 30 1/4 would be constructive and indicate considerably higher levels. BUYHOLD GIMBEL BROS. (45) The stock has had a nice rise since our original recommenda tion at 27. Still has a 45-55 potential. HOLD GULF OIL (117) Still selling around our originally recommended level. From a technical point of view, the stock appears to be building a wide potential base in the 100129 range. BUY-HOLD HEINZ, H.J. & CO. (70) Originally recommended at 56, the stock still has a very interesting upside potential. With 80 of earnings from foreign sources, profit margins tligh. BUY-HOLD HERCULES POWDER (61) Has advanced from originally recommended level of 48 but still has a minimum technical objective of 75. HOLD HOFFMAN ELECTRONICS (54) This stock originally entered our list in the 22-2 area. The base formed in that range indicated an objective of 43-52. Later action indi- cated 52-57. At the high of 541/2, these objectives have been achieved. Probably the stock of this well managed company will consolidate in a trading area to form a new patte This may take time so I am dropping it from my recommended list for the time being. Switch into other issues in list. HOOKER CHEMICAL (43) Originally recommended at 35, the stock has an upside potential of 50-60. HOLD ThiS lett.llr IS not, Rnd under llo Circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to Bell or n solicitatIOn W buy any securities referred to herem The mCol'mation contnlned hcrem IS not guaranteed a!\ to accuracy or completencss and the fut'mshml thereof IS not, and undcr no O!It'cumstances is to be construed as, B representa- iwn lW Wnlstnn & Co, Inc. All cXprcsswns of omnlon al c subJect to ch);lnJ.!'c 'j\.lthout notICe Walston & Co, lnc, and OffIcers, DIrectors, Stockholders llnd Employees therC(lf. purchase, sell and may hll\e an interest In the securities mentIOned herein ThiS market lettcr IS mtcnded Bnd presented merely as a general, mformal commentary on dllY to dny market news and not as n complete analYSIS Additional information With respect to any securities referred to herem wlil be (urfllilhed upon r e q u e s t ' Wr,' JOI fBtE COpy – INTERNA TIONAL MINERALS & CHEMICAL (30) This has been the most disappointing issue in my list. It has done practically nothing pricewise and is selling just a shade above its origmally recommended level. However, its potential base is so wide that I am continuing to recommend the issue. to reach 34 would be extremely constructive technically and indicate much higher levels. BUY-HOLD MAGNAVOX (57) The stock has rallied sharply from the recommended level of 40, but still indicates higher levels. BUY-HOLD MONSANTO CHEMICAL (47) Has moved ahead nicely from the recommended level of 38, but still has a higher technical objective. BUY-HOLD NA TIONAL DISTILLERS (34) This is one of my favorite issues for long-term appre- ciation. It has moved ahead from its originally recommended level of 27, but still has a very sizable upside potential for the longer term. BUY-HOlD NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING (49) Has done little marketwise since it was recom- 47 has a ve!Y20und favorable longterm pattern. BUY-HOLD — — – – — NORTHROP CORP. (42) One of the more interesting missile-electronic stocks. Has advanced from a 33-31 recommended level, but still has a much higher potential,in my opinion. BUY-HOLD NORTHWEST AIRLINES (41) See my letter of February 27th when this stock was recommended at 38. This is one of the more attractive airline issues and indicates higher levels. Earnings for 1959 should be above 5.00. BUY-HOLD PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAYS (30) This issue has been one of my airline favorites for a long time and was originally recommended at 15. Still indicates higher levels, despite its 1000/0 advance. BUY-HOLD PENNSALT CHEMICAL (89) The stock has risen from a recommended 71, but has a much higher potential. Believe it to be one of the more dynamic issues in the chemical group for long-term holding. BUY- HOLD PHILIP MORRIS (64) Has advanced steadily from a recommended level of 48, but I still advise continued purchase and retention. BUY-HOLD ROHR AIRCRAFT (24) Is still selling at my recommended level of 24. The com- pany's principal product is a power package for jet, prop-jet and propeller aircraft. 600/0 of backlog is commercial. Technically, it has a much higher potential. BUY-HOLD TCH(44) Se-interrfati-onat oils– are selling below the recommended levels of 48 and 22. However, like Gulf Oil, they are building up very sizable potential bases and upside objectives appear to outweigh downside risk, but patience may be required. BUY-HOLD SINGER MFG. (46) Believe this issue is outstandingly attractive. Recommended at 48, it advanced to 54 7/8 and is now below recommended levels. Book value is a stated 81. a share, but is probably considerably higher. BUY-HOLD WILSON & CO. (38) This stock has advanced 1500/0 from my recommended level of 15, but I am still advising its purchase. Management is excellent and earnings should continue to improve. BUY-HOLD LOW-PRICED STOCKS This group was recommended on November 7, 1958 as a package, with the exception of the more recent recommendation of Home Oil A and B – Recommended Price Current Price Remarks Avco Corp. 9 13 Buy-Hold Chemway Curtis Publishing Decca Records Divco Wayne Freuhauf Home Oil A or B Hotel Corp. National Can Pacific Petroleum Publicker Rayonier United Industrial 11 17 15 14 18 19 17 17 — 25 20 19 78 14 13 18 16 11 14 19 25 13 14 Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold BUY-I1old – Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold .. The upside potentials on all of the issues mentioned in this letter will be found in my Technical Analysis of 1,100 Common Stocks, Copies are available to clients in all Walston & Co. offices, , EDMUND W, T ABELL WALSTON & CO.INC, .-.-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 20, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange 'fIt NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 20, 1959 With apologies for subjecting the reader to guessing games, this letter would like to pose the following query What do these stocks have in common Aluminum Co. of America, Coca-Cola, DuPont, General Motors, International Nickel, International Paper Kennecott, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Westinghouse Electric, Union Pacific. The first obvious point of Similarity is that all the foregoing companies are leaders in their respect ive industries. The second point, which, at first glance, may not be so obvious is that, with the Dow-Jones Industrial average selling at 610 vs. the 1956-57 high of under 525, all of these stocks are selling well under their previous bull market peaks . This is nothing more than another. way of. t.hat the query, What is the market going to do is the'most fruitless of all investors' questions. The investor buys and sells stocks, not the market. The security analyst recommends stocks, not the market. It is the task of this letter, therefore, to recommend securities where value seems to exist. In 1948, the writer was lucky enough to predict that the Dow-Jones Industrial aver age would reach 500 by the mid-1950s. The prediction, however, would have proved wort less had it recommended United Shoe Machinery (then 52, now 51), or Underwood (then 45, now 28), as vehicles for participation in that growth. Another way of pointing out the same thing is by utilizing the supposition that the investor could buy the Dow-Jones Industrial average, and furthermore that he could ac- curately have predicted everyone of the thirteen major swings that have taken place from June, 1949, to date. On this basis, assuming the investor had bought at every bottom,and sold short at every top, he would have netted 78,000 on a 10,000 investment after pay- ment of taxes. Obviously, this would be impossible, Upssible in 1949,how ever, to have put 10,000 into Standard Oil of New Jerse T would be worth 55,000 after taxes, and an investment in I.B.M. bas' ould be worth 114,000. Theoretically, our investor could have a bit sophisticated. He mig t .. boughLStanc!arcLOilof N.J. m 1949, to Alcoa in-August 1954, in al Electric in January, 1952 DavifnflJUne-lll57, Corp. in December 1958. On that 00 mvested would be worth 619,700 after payment of all taxes. e still further, had he bought Dana Corp. in June 1949, switche a . e!-'in April 1953, to Lorillard in June 1957, and to Zenith in Sept b 9 w now have 3,665,000 after payment of taxes. In any case, he had a f i d n' rably better investment results by 'seeking out individua stock values than by ryi guess swings in the Dow-Jones Industrials. Nor is the st of different industries any substitute for the analysis of individua stocks. Again going back to 1949, it was possible to choose between three stocks in the Railroad industry selling at 18 per share, Pennsylvania, N. Y. Central, and Denver & Rio Grande Western. Pennsylvania is still selling at 18, N.Y.Central has advanced to 27, and Denver Rio Grande Western adjusted for a 500/0 stock dividend, and a three-for- one split, is now selling for the equivalent of 297. The same principle has held true in recent years. For example, both Wilson and Swift & Co. are now selling around 38. At their respective 1956 highs, Wilson was at 17, and Swift was at 50, Northwest and Easte Airlines both sell around 42. At their 1956 highs, Northwest was at 17 and Eastern at 57 All of the above statistics are valueless unless their current lesson is heeded. This lesson is a very simple one, it is that the investor should cease worrying about the rapidity of the markeFrise and the possibilityof-a correction, and,turn,his attention to indivldual stock values where they exist. I ended last week's letter by saying that the upside potentials of all of the issues in my recommended list could be found m my Technical Analysis of 1,100 Common Stocks, and was available to clients in all Walston offices. What I meant was that it is available for perusal by Walston clients. Our representatives only have one copy. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. '!1rket letter III not, lind under no circum;tnnCf! 1; to be Cf)fllltrued nil, an offer to hell or II sohclwtlOn to buy any referred to herelll The lIlformabon c()ntulIl(!d ,hereIn IB not gunrnntcetlnll to accurllCY or compietene–s lind lhe furnl91unv thereof I not, linn unil(!r no ClrcumstanCC9 I to be construed II. a reprcsentll- t!on by \\ alston & Co, Inc All e'lpreS'lon9 uf nplIllon are sllhJect to change Without notice 'Ya1ston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholdcrs Rnd F mllioycc'l purchase. sell and mdY hnve an Interest III the securIties mentIOned herelll Thl9 market letter III mtended and presented m(!rely as a gell(!ral fIunrfnolrlmlhneld cuopmonmerenqtaureyston ilny to day market new Hn.! not as a complete Adciltumnl informatIOn Ith respect to any securitieS referred to herem will WN J01

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 26, 1959
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Walston &Co. Inc —….;;- Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEL1.'S MARKET LETTER March 26, 1959 The general market drifted lower during most of the week with the Dow-Jones Industrials, at 606.58, off 3.79 points from the previous Friday's close. Volume of trad n on the New York Stock Exchange declined along with the dip in the price level. The real scene of activity was the American Stock Exchange where the volume was almost equal to that of the Big Board. Many stocks of extremely questionable quality hav been having a field day on the American Stock Exchange in recent weeks. This activity reached a climax in the past fortnight and on Thursday, these stocks took a severe beatin and suffered drastic price declines both in number of points and percentagewise. This sho have come as no great surprise to anyone. It was Just a matter of when it was going to ha – pen ana'hoW-ridicuJously lilgli someof'fneseissues were ine-vitab1e decline occurred. In a sense, the market situatlOn today is quite similar to that of March, 1955. At that time the market had been advancing for eighteen months and had moved from 255 in the Dow-Jones Industrials to over 420. The advance had everyone worried, including Washington, and Congress conducted the Fulbright mquiry. There were sharp advances in issues of questionable quality with the only difference from today being that the names were different ones — like Bellanca Aircraft, United Dye Works, and others. In March of 1955, issues of this type declined sharply and continued to drift lower for two years. The general market declined mildly, in sympathy, from 420 to 385 and then continued to advance until April, 1956 when the industrial average reached 525. The technical pattern is quite similar today. Most stocks have only small top pat- terns,if any. The Industrial average has a strong support level at 600 to 580 and the nical pattern suggests a dip into the support zone. There terioration in the great majority of issues. \W of longer term de- While a great number of issues appear to 0 ist' y priced today, ther are a number of good values shll around. NORTHR FAORP 1/4) is a case in pOint. Earnings for the six months ended January er ced last week at 1. 97 a share, a-gainst -108-2 the-previous t, -Resea-rch -Department has' – just issued an excellent hIWC electronic and missile stocks 'Il! t t points out that in their search for be overlooking Northrop which derives nearly 700/0 of e r 'cs, missiles and related products, and ment expects thi companies west of t 1 ase. Northrop ranks among the largest electronics is s 1 with electronic sales alone higher than such substan- tial enterprises as A pe eckman Instruments, Consolidated Electrodynamics, and Hoffman Electronics espite these factors, the stock is selling at only 9.4 times earmngs of 4.29 for the fiscal year ended July 31, 1958. Northrop is on my recommend ed list. Another issue on my recommended list that appears undervalued is WILSON & C (37) despite its sharp advance from a recommended level of 15 to 38. Earmngs for the flscal year ended October 31st were 3.10 a share, but are estimated at a possible 4.50 a share for the 1959 flscal period. Improved operating methods, packaging and fication have madette meat packing much less cyclical than in the past. Another company showing an improving picture is tTORTHWEST AIRLINES (40 3/4). February revenues set an all-time record for the month. Its new route from Chicago to Florida has largely eliminated the I.\sual large seasonal losses in the winter months. Estimates of 1959 earn- ings incicate 5.00 a share before possible capital gains. Some of the railroad earnings for the first two months of 1959 make interesting comparisons with a year ago. Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe earned 21 vs. 11, Southern Pacific 1.20 vs. 84, and Vv'estern Pacific 1.26 VS. 49. The rail average has been resting in the 168-157 area since mid-January and has built up an excellent potential base. EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter IS not., und under no IS to be construed DS, nn offer to sell or n sOhcltatlOn to buy any seeuTltJes referred to herem The mformation contnmcd herem m)t J.!;unranteed as to nccurucy or completeness and the thereof lS not, and under no clt'c\zmstanre; 111 to he ('ons1rued as, n rePrcsenta- tum bl- 'nlston &. Cn. Inr. All e).presSlOns of OIHIllon arc subJect to Without notICe Walston & Co. Inc. nnd Officers. D1rectors. StockhOldQrs and Empin)oees thereof purchn!e sell nnd may hae an Interest In the flccurltle9 mentIOned herem Thlq market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general. mformnl eomrnentnry on to nay market news nnd not as n complete El.nll!)o;ls. AddltlOnal mformntlon with respect to an)' lIeellrltlcs referred to her(!Jn wIll be fUlnZc,hed upon r C f l u e s t ' \\'N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 03, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange FILE NEW YORK ' SAN FRANCISCC ' LOS ANGElES ' PHILADElPHIA ' CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 3, 1959 Considering the sharp drops (30 to 40 in some instances) in a number of over- exploited speculative issues, the general market performed in excellent technical fashion during the past week. It largely ignored the gyrations of the lunatic fringe and reacted moderately from the mid-March high of 618.80 to an intra-day low of 599,21 on Tuesday, a decline of only a little more than 3. By Friday, much of the lost ground had been re- gained; an intra-day high of 614.39 being reached. Even more impressive was volume action. The top turnover (and the high of the market) was reached on March 13th with volume at 4,880,000 shares. At Tuesday's low, trading had dropped to 2,820,000 shares -a'decline of 40. cFurtheTrribre, halted-arthe'fitst supportzone- the top of the 600-580 area. Also, the rail average, at an intra-day low of 157.73 on Tuesday, fail- ed to break below the February low of 157.13. So far, action has been impressive. Best technical action from here on would be a quieting down phase with a further consolidatin period followed by an eventual upside penetration of the highs in both the industrial and rail averages. As mentioned in last week's letter, the present stage of the market, in my opinion, is quite similar to the March 1955 stage of the 1953-1956 rise. In March, 1955, the Indu – trial average already had completed 60 of its eventual advance. Various speculative stocks were having somewhat similar advances to those witnessed recently. These stocks suffered sharp price declines in the Spring of 1955 without unduly disturbing the general market which continued to advance until April, 1956 and then went through a lengthy top- ping out period for over a year. Markets never exactly repeat themselves, but applying the 1953-1956 patt,ern to the present situation would around 770 to be reached in a year or so, probably followed by a topping 0 t or ib't1tional period similar to 1956-1957. The sequel will probably e g ea e n any witnessed since 1937. This is not as ominous as it sounds. e ve n t y had a severe de- cline in recent years. The greatest s t decline in 1946. The 1957 decline -was 20, but it probably halt at around the 525 level a er time-.-.-Any decline wou-ld eft riple tops of 1956 and 1957. If the average did reach 770, a to about 30, or a bit greater than the 1946-1949 bear rna et All of this is of a e ecture, but the present technical pattern lends some credence to med above. At the moment, the only issues that have built up vulnerable t hn c tterns are some (but not all) of the glamour stocks that have had steep price a ces and are sellmg at extremely high price-tirnes-earnings ratios. There are s 1 a considerable number of issues that have sound technical pat- terns and indicate higher levels over the intermediate term. FANSTEEL METALLURGICAL (60) offers interesting potentials. This leading domestic processor of rare metals such as tantalum and columbium also produces tungsten and molybdenum. Tantalum capacitors represent the fastest growing section of the company's products. Leading markets for the company's products are electronics, automobiles, metal working, electric power, aircraft and atomic energy. The stock sold at a 1957 high of 64 and reacted to 42 later m 1957. It recently equalled its 1957 high of 64 and has reacted to the 60 level. Ability to reach new h1gh territory would be a constructive technical indicatlon. aOLIVER CORP. (19) is low-priced issue with an in- teresting technical p-atte- rn. The stock has recently broken out on the upside of the 8-18 area in which it had held since 1945. This should have considerable technical significance. This company has had a spotty earnings record, but it had a book value of 33.38 as of October 31st, 1958 and could be of interest to another company for merger or purchase of assets. Both issues are being added to my recommended list. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. mnrkellctter 15 not, nnd under no cIrcumstances is to be contl'ucd as, un offer to sell or n soitcltahon to buy any securities referred to herem The mformation con till ned herem IR not gnnrllnt('ed to accuracy or compictenl!!!s and the furmshlnj;! thereof IS not, and under no circumst.&nees is to bc construed as, a representa- tion hy '''alston & Co, Inc. All e).preSSlOns or OpmlOn arc subJQct to chnnge Without notIce Walston & Co, Inc and Officers, Dlrectors, Stockholder'! and Fmpjoyecs thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mtcrest m the ;ecUTltJes mentIOned herein ThiS markel Jetter IS mtended and presented merely as II general, mformal commentary on day to clay market news and not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal mformatJon nth respect to any SeCUTltlcs referred to herem WIll be fUI nlshed tlllOn r e q u e s t ' \\ N 30 . – – -, ……….

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 10, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 10, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 10, 1959
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— — W—–a–l-s-tIoncn—&–C—o. Members New York Stock Exchange Opy NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 10, 1959 Market activity quieted down considerably during the past week which is all to the good at this stage of the technical pattern. The industnal average came within shoot- ing distance of the mid-March high of 618.80 at Monday's mtra-day high of 614.39, and then reacted to 602.12 on Thursday. Friday's close was 605.97. The rails, at the week' intra-day high of 163.96, were still quite a distance away from the January high of 168.27 but held quite firmly while the industrials were sellmg off in mid-week. From a near- term point of view, the important points to watch on the upside are 618.80 on the indus- trials and J68. 2J on the ralls. The advance. potential on the industrials, in the event of a ..an upside penetration, is-not clear-and probably-more cons'olidalioh-is needed-before -.,..– sizable advance is indicated. The rails, however, have formed enough of a potential base in the past three months to indicate, technically, an advance to the 175-180 level in the event of an upside penetration. On the downside, the important points are, of course, the Aprlilst lows of 599.21 and 157.20, A downside breakthrough of these points would give a technical indication of a decline to about 580 in the mdustrials and about 148 in the rails. There are, as yet, no valid technical signs of longer-term deterioration in the market pattern. The indications are still for a selective advance for the balance of the year interrupted occasionally by technical corrections. The oils have been one of the poorer acting groups since July. The re are several oils on my recommended list and I have been premature in recommending their purchase, but there is no change in my opinion that this group will have a worthwhile upward move before the general market advance is completed, Actually, the oil group can be broken down into three broad classifications, namely, domestic companles, international companies and Canadian 011 and gas near-term, the do'mestic companies have the best technical Mo 0 ar selling clos e to all-time highs and are close to upside er at have been form!ng since , Most the d0r'eStic oils have ential of about 300/0 The mternahonal are close to thelr .- 1957-1958 lows and, from a nearby change in trend. How d91 ,there is no indication of a rnational olls have held in trading areas for almost a year and a potential bases much greater than those formed by the ic D h, for example, is sellmg at 44 and has an upside potential 1000/0, for the longer-term, Technically, down- side risk seems re . ly s also. The 40-37 area should be a good support zone. The only question is e mmg and that should not particularly concern the followers of this letter who ar ncerned with capital gains over a period of six months or longer and not in short-term swings. It lS interesting to note in the March 31 st report of the Lazard Fund, Inc., that this astutely managed investment fund added to then holdings of Gulf Oil, Royal Dutch and Texas Company in the first quarter, and that Rcyal Dutch is their second largest holding of their entire common stock portfolio and Gulf Oil is the fourth largest. The other group, Canadlan oil and gas stocks, have also performed poorly marketwise. However, they also have formed wide potential bases with upside poten- tials of 1000/0 m some cases. Here again it appears to be a question of timing and more patience may be required before a reversal of trend. On my recommended list are GETTY OIL GULF OIL (112 3/4) ROYAL DUTCH 45) and SHELL TRANSPORT (19 3/4) in the international oils, and HOME OIL (18 1/4) and PACIFIC PETROLEUM (15 1/4) in the Canadian group. Among the domestic oils, PNDERSON PRICHP.RD (35 3/4), P-TLPNTIC REFINING (50), CONTINENTAL OIL (63), OHIO OIL (40 5/8), PURE OIL (46 3/4), SKELLY OIL (71 7/8), STANDARD OIL OF OHIO (61 1/4), and UNION OIL OF CALIFORNIA (46 7/8) have attractive technical patterns. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 1 hIS market letter IS not. Rnd under no Clrcumstanc(! IS to be construed us, an offer to sell or u solicitation to buy any securlttes referred to herem The infOrmation conttllned herem 1'1 not guaranteed IlS to accuracy or completeness and the furOlshmg thereof 15 not. and under no Circumstances 15 to be construed IlS, II. representa- tIOn by Walston & Co. Ine All '….presslOnll of oPinIOn are subJect to change ,Ithout notice Walston & Co, Inc. Ilnd Officers. Directors, Stockholders and thereof, purchnse, sell Ilnd may have an Interest lTI the Sf!eUrJtJes mentIoned herelO. This market letter IS mtended nnd presented m(!reiy as n general. mformnJ commentary on dny to dllY market news nnd not IlS 0. complete Addltlonnlmformntlon With respect to any seeurlties referred to herem v.ill be f\1I nlshed upon r e q u e s t . ' \\;- 30l

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 17, 1959
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FILE COpy h Walston &Co. Inc—- Members New yo,'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEll'S MARKET LETTER April 17, 1959 Both the Dow-Jones Industrials and Rails reached new high territory for the year Thursday and extended the advance on Friday. The lindustrials passed the March high of 618.80 to attain an intra-day peak of 626.66 on Friday. The achievement of the Ralls wa probably more noteworthy because they pushed through the high of 168.27 that had held since mid-January. Friday's high was 170.14. The high on the Industrials is a new all- time high. The Rails are still below their 1956 high of 182.54 by about 50/0. The Indus- trials, on the other hand, are almost 200/0 above their 1956 high of 524.37. Just how high the market can carryon this phase of the advance appears to be Clearer–on the-Rails-tnan'on 'the Industrials. d past'tIlree-m-onths on the Rail average suggests a potential of 175-180, as compared with Friday's close of 168.92. The technical pattern of the Industrial average indicates the possibility of an advance to the 635-650 level, as compared with Friday's close of 624.06. After these objectives are achieved, normal technical procedure would call for another consolidating or resting period in order to form a new pattern. I am still of the opinion that the Indus- trial average will eventually reach the 750-800 area before the advance from October, 1957 low is completed. However, I also believe that this is the third and final phase of the tremendous advance that started in 1949. Comparing these three phases shows Low 160.62 254.36 416.15 Date 6/14/49 C//15/56 10/22/57 High 295.06 524.37 626.66 Date 1/5/53 4/9/56 4/17/59 No. of Months 42 31 18 Advance 84 106 53 ; To Date. So far, the present upswing is moderate as co a the two previous' advances since 1949. It is also moderate as h av e of the fourteen major bull market upswings that have taken place average of these four- teen bullmarets ti,!Ile rtynron and of 1110/0 as compared to eighteen Percentages are import or resent advance. t 1 Suppose the Industrial average ad- vances to 800 by 1960 or points above the present level. Sounds like a lot. Yet it is on e ent level. The investor who bought at the 1949 lows has al d d e advance of 3440/0. From these figures it would appear that the ne r0 just discovered that the stock market has been going up is getting in awfu lat e has missed most of the advance and for a possible gain of 280/0 is taking the r' of the most dangerous part of the market. As readers of this letter know, my specific stock recommendations are de- signed for the individual who is interested in long-term capital gains for a holding period of six months or longer. My advice is not for the short term trader trying to guess the short-term swings of a few pOints. For this reason, the stocks recommended usually have, in my opinion, an upside potential of at least 500/0 or more over a period of six months or longer. ThEse recommendations are based both on technical and fundamental factors. Obvio'.!ly, these potentials are not always achleved, but there are several stocks m my recommended list that are approaching their own individual upside poten- tials. These stocks still indicate somewhat higher levels, but appear to have already witnessed a good portion of their indicated advance. FAlHILY FINANCE (32 5/8) was originally recommended-at 22 and has reached a high of 35. It has'an upside potential of 43 and, for the patient investor desiring a 4.8 yield, it can be held, but other issues in my recommended list probably offer better appreciation prospects over the next 6 months GIMBEL BROS.(45 1/2) entered my recommended list at 27. It has/an upside potential of 45-55 and has reached a high of 47 1/8. NATIONAL GYPSUM (68 3 8) was originally recommended at 42 and has an upside objective on my technical work of 75-85. Stock clos d at its high for the year on Friday at 68 3/8. All three of these stocks can be held until they reach their potential, or switched into other issues in my recommended list such as MONSANTO CHEMICAL (48),NATIONAL DISTILLERS (33 1/2),ROYAL DUTCH (463/8) or lINGER MFG.(49 3/8). All of these lssues indlcate higher levels over the mtermediate term. I am also adding FEDDERS CORP. (19 1/8)to my low-priced list. A complete write-up will follow. EDMUND W. TABELL WThIS market letter 15 not. and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an offer uGQaJMCitles referred to herein The Inform(l.llOn C'nntained herein I'; not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnishIng thereof IS not. nnd under no Clfcumstancl!S IS to be construed as, a representa- hon by 'alston & Co. Inc All e'(presslOns of OpInion arc subject to change \Hthout not1CC Walston & Co. Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and IIlrormaJ thereof, purchase, commentary on day stoelldaayndmmarakyethnavewe sananmd terest m not as a the securltJcs mentlOned herein ThIS market letter lS mtended complete analYllls Additional mformatJon With respect to any and presented merei)i- ns a general, secuntH!S referred to herem WIll be fllrmshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\ N 301 ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 24, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 24, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 24, 1959
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Walston &Co. Inc Members New YOk Stock Exchange FILE QPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 24, 1959 The F. R. B. Index of production, and most other business indices, reached their lows just about a year ago and began to move upward. This advance slowly gained mo- mentum over the months,and what started out to be a recovery phase has now blossomed into a new boom. Present indications are that this boom wi) 1 continue both in terms of time and volume. Earnings for the first quarter are sharply above those of a year ago,and the improvement should continue into the se cond quarter. To the novice inve stor, all of this presumably means that the stock market will continue to move ahead at the same rate as the business pattern improves. This assumption may not necessarily be correct. The stock market usually acts as a barometer rather than a thermometer. It must be remembered that the stock market ignored the dismal earnings reports of a year ago and started to advance three to six months before business reached its low. This is not an unusual phenomena, even though it may appear unusual to the new investor. If past technical action means anything, the stock market will probably reach its high before the indices of business reach their highs. Neither of these highs appear imminent at the mom ent. I believe that the present advancing phase in the stock market that started in Octo- ber – December 1957 at around the 420 level in the Dow-Jones Industrials will continue into 1960-1961 and will reach a level around 800–give or take 5 in either direction. However, we have probably completed the initial part of the upswing wherein the market advances in more or less straight-line with only moderate, short-lived technical declines. The swings from now on could be wider. In the advance from Oct- ober, 1953 to April, 1956, the advance from October, was of the straight-line variety from 255 to 425. After that, h th 'tiJkk verages con- tinued to advance, the general market became T ctual high in the averages was reached at 524 a year later in 1956, wide swings up and down.before-the I wed c' , in- nother year late.. 1957. -of se.ver,,a,.,.l 1 As noted in these letters et is approaching the equiva- ent of March 1955. The ing their tops, just as they . and individual issues may be reacha\155 in the 1953-1956 rise. While at the moment, advances n u declines, we are pro.bably apprcaching the stage (like 1956 of ) when just as many stocks decline as advance,de- spite the fact that era ay continue to rise. Relative stren h . n -the price action of each individual issue as compared to the price action o.f t eneral market- is often helpful as a clue to. future price action. INTERNATIONAL MINERALS & CHEMICAL (32 1/8), which has probably been the most disappointing issue on my recommended list, has at last begun to show signs of impro.vin relative strength. One reason fo.r this improving action is the favorable earnings report for the first quarter. Earnings were reported at 83 for the three months ended March 31st as compared to 33 in the 1958 quarter. This stock has been building up a substan- tially potential base area in the 26-33 range since late 1955. Ability to. relch 34 would have favo.rable technical Significance. NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING (42) suffered some selling last week because of a rather pessimistic report in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal on the U. S. Shipbuilding industry. This article points out the current slowdown in the replacement pro.gram due to. a depressed world shipping market. These conditions, in my opinion, are temporaryand in the meantime the present backlog assures a sat- isfactory rate of operation for so.me time. Earnings for 1959 sho.uld be above the 4.19 reported for 1958 and the 2.00 dividend paid in 195' (35 quarterly 60 extra) yields 4.7 at present price level. Stock should be bought on pref'ent weakness. NOR THWESr,. AIRLINES (405/8) declined to. 39 1/4 during the past week fro.m a recent high of 46 1/8, and also should be bo.ught during periods of market correction. Earnings pro.jections for 1959 still indicate an earnings probability of 5.00 a share plus,for the year. EWT/at EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Th! letter I'; not and under no Circumstances 19 to be construed as, an offer to lIell or a soliCitatIOn to buy an) SCCUrlt1(,'S referred to herein The information .'ontnm(l1 herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or and the furnlshmg thereof '1 not. nna under no Circumstances IS to be constl ued ns, n rellrC'Icntn- tlon 1\). Vlnhton & Co, Inc All expreSSIOns of opinIon are subc('t to WIthout notwc WlIlston & Co, Inc, and OffIcer'!, Dlteetor!;, Stockholders find thereof, purchfl!;C', sell nnd mlly have lin intllrest 10 the !;CCUrltIes mentIOned herem Thl'! mllrkct f'Lter IS mtended nnd presented merely as a general, 1Oformul commentary on day to day market ne\\!! and not as a complete analySIS AddItIonal mformatlOn WIth respect to Ilny referred to herem WIll he fUI nlshed upon r e q u e s t ' OX 30 /

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 01, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 01, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - May 01, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —…..;.- Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD fiLE COpy CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 1, 1959 The oays 01 we stralghtline advance may well be numbered. For the first time since October, 1957, the market has shown some initial signs of loss of momentum. This shows up most obviously in ratio of advances to declines. In th week ended April 24, 535 stocks advanced in price, and 741 declined. This ratio was mai tained on daily figures last week. This simply indicates that it is becoming more and mor difficult to select issues that are in an advancing phase, a typical characteristic of a mature bull market. At this stage, the careless investor begins to find that it is possible for poorly-chosen stocks to go down as well as up. This is not to imply that the bull market is over. The analogy of the current marke , and that of 1955, has been drawn before, but it bears restating. By the middle of 1955, the Dow-Jones Industrial average had reached a high above 470, and was still to advance to its ultimate high of 524. However, the period between mid-1955 and mid-1957 saw many wide swings of more than 100/0 in the averages, and in addition many stocks topped out a long time before the averages reached their peak. This could happen again. The' other side of the coin is, of course, that many stocks had worthwhile upside moves in tl e 1955-1957 period. The job of the analyst tOday is to select such stocks. One clue as to a possible investment opportunity may be gained from the recent action of the rail group. As most investors are aware, the Dow-Jones Rail average has refuse d to follow the Industrials into new high territory and is still below its 1956 high of 182. During the past two weeks ,action has been more encouraging. Last week while the Industrials declined, the rails held re2.conably firm. From a fundamental point of view, it would be unusual for an industrial recovery of the current magnitude to take place without concurrent sharp improvement in the f better railroads. One rail on our recommended list is CHICAG MI A ,OS. PAUL & PACIFIC (26 3/8). Both 1958 and first -quarter re t i co y 'were su'rp-rising1' gOOd. For the year, per-share earnings improved d e a decline in operating revenues. In the first three months of 0 ating income increased to 1.75 million from 22,000 in t rrier, which produces most of its earnings in the Summer mont 0 720,000 from 1. 8 million. On this basis, it seems will be surpassed in 1 t post-war earnings peak of 3.27 in 1955 b (lomfortable margin. Another st u ed list which has been temporarily weak is NOR THROP AIRC 1 . Investors who seem to be willing to pay almost any price for glamour lect c stocks have as yet failed to realize that almost two- thirds of Northrop's s fall into this category. The fact that the company's Snark program may come 0 an end in 1960, has been muer. overdone, and new programs are expected to take up the slack. At current levels, the stock is available for slightly over nine times last reported annual earnings, despite the fact that these earnings should increase in the fiscal year to end July 1959. As time goes on, and stocks on our recommended list advance it becomes necebsary to make deletions In order to make room for new canditates, HERCULES POWDER originally recommended at 481/8, closed this week at 70 1/2. The stock has an obj ective of an initial 78 followed by a longer-term possible 95, but as the initial objective has almost been reaChed, it is bEO;'lg dropped from our list. MeanwhIle, despite the fact that one maJor company cut its dividend last week, favor- able patterns Lave been building up in the aluminum group. KAISER ALUMINUM (41 3/8) has been building up a strong long-term base in the 48-22 area, and ability to reach 49 would indicate conSIderably higher levels. U. S. FOILB (50 1/4) the holding company for Reynolds Metals, has also built up a favorable pattern. Both these stocks are being added to our recommended list. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTat ThiS market letter 15 not. and under no circumstances ia to be construed (lB, an offer to Bell or a solicitatJon to buy any seeuritiea referred to herem The mformatlon contained hereln IS not guarnntced as to Ilccuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof IS not. llnd under no circumstances is to be construed 8S, u representa- han by 'Walston & Co, Inc. All expresslOno; of opimon are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc. and Officers, Directors, Stockholders Ilnd Employees thereof, purchaM, sell and may have an mterest In the securities mentioned herem This market letter 18 intended and presented merely ns a general, mformal commentary on day to day market neWli and not as a complete analysIs AdditIOnal mformatlOn WIth respect to any securities referred to herem Will be furnished. upon r e q u e s t . ' \\1;' 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 08, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 08, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - May 08, 1959
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FfLECOPY NEW YORK Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchanae SAN FRANCISCC – LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET LETTER May 8, 1959 The market suffered its sharpest break in some time on Thursday as the Dow Jones Industrials plunged 8.75 points and reached an intra- cay low of 611.68. A rally starting late Thursday afternoon carried through into Friday's market and most of the lost ground was regained. As has often been the case, the decline took place quickly. The downside obj ective of the top formed by the Dow-Jones Industrials was 615-612, just about the level reached at Thursday's low. Significantly enough, during the decline, the rail average did not brea ouLof.the trading range in which It has held since.thebeginning oLI959., . .- For the past few weeks thIS letter ha s tried to characterize the present market by drawing an analogy to the market of mid-1955. This comparison becomes more interesting as it IS examined closely. From ;1 low of 254.4 in September 1953, the Dow-Jones Industrials started a straigh line advance which was interrupted by only three minor corrections. A 4.40/0 drop took place in January 1954. This was followed by a 5.40/0 drop in August and a 4.40/0 drop in October. These minor down-swings were the only important corrections which took placE during the period. For most weeks during 1954, advances sharply outnumbered declins, and in the few weeks where this was not the case, the two figures were practically equal. There were S( idom more than 5 or 10 new lows for the year in any week, and new highs often number ed as many as 200 a week. It was hard not to own at least a few stocks that were acting \ e 1 As 1955 began, the swings became wider. The Dow average dropped 6.50/0 in January Two months later, in March, an 8.10/0 drop took place. through the summer, but in September and Octob.r, a decline of 10. t . All th is time the bull market was beginning sir,ndloSS of mome'n- tum. In March 1955' s drop, fr r example, 362 new 9 5 low re made uring the week of March 14-18. In the prevlOus – clmed. Iii the September 26-30, vs. 184 advances. Two obvious that many of the , c ad advanced while 1173 de-de– dauring-thE(weekofSeptemoerQ.O w 1955 lows were posted. It is new lows at this time continued declin- – ing as 1955 The sequel, s I el own. The market eventually mde a new high reaching 524.37 – ri 9 nd holding in a range between these levels and 453.07 for fifteen months. nn e entire perioq action was (,ytremely diverse, with many indIvidual issues ell and others acting very poorly. How does thIS action compare with the current market So far, the upswi!'g which started in October 1957 has been underway 18 months. The previous bull market lasted 30 months between low and high. The first signs of in- ternal weakness, as noted above, took place in March 1955, 17 months after the start .rof the bull market Significantly, the same signs have begun to manifest themselves. For the past two nks, declines have outnumbered advances. For the week ended May 4th, 122 new 1959 ,ows were posted. If the SImilarity continues, what type of market action may be expected Probably, something on the order of the following 1. The averages WIll continue cn into new high grOl.rd. ' 2. However, wide r swings will take place, and broader corrections than those experienced so far may be expected. 3. It will still be possible to acheive capital gains in selected issues, but the number 0 Issues in uptrends will be decidedly smaller. 4. The number of stocks acting poorly wIll increase sharply. It would thus appear that the time again has come to separate the men from the boys. Losses will become more prevailent, and stock selection will again be the si nc qua non of investment success. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AW rial TIllS market letter IS not, Ilnd under no ClrCtlmRt/lncc; is to he com,trucd all offi'r to ell or Il !Ihcltntmn to buy any seCUrities referred to herem The mformnt()11 ('I)ntllincd here1n1'\ not I.rtlllrantero lUI to Ilccurncy or complctct1els snli the furnihlll). thereof IS not, nnd under no cIrcumstances 1S to be COn'ltl ued a!', a rcpresentll hnn b \Vnbton & Co., Inc All (''lprCslOns of OPinton arc subject to change WIthout nollce Walston & Co, Inc, and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders nnd thereof, plIrchn;e, sell and may have an mterest m the securIties mentioned herem ThiS market letter IS Intended nnd presented merely as n general, wf()rmal commentary on dny to dn) mnrket news and not ns a complete anah-sls Addltlon..!1 mformatlon WIth resPect to any flCCUl'ltles referred to herem WIll be furnished upon r e q u e s t ' \\.N 301 –'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 15, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 15, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - May 15, 1959
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Walston &Co. In.c. Mernbers New York Stock Exchange FILE COpy NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 15, 1959 I spent the past week in England and Scotland on a short business trip. It is interest ing to compare the stock market there with the American market. Both markets have risen about 50 since early 1958. Despite the equal rise, United Kingdom issues still appear reasonably priced in comparison with our equities. The yield on the averages on the London market is around 5, compared to slightly above 3 here. Uncertainty about the national elections, probably to be held in the Fall, is most likely one of the main reasons for the spread. Some very interesting values appear available in the London market. Our market staged a sharp recovery from the intra-day low of 611.98 on the Dow – Jones Industrials reached on May 7th. The rally of the past week carried to a new intra-day high of 637.04 on Friday. This is about the middle of 635-650 rally objective mentioned in my letter of April 17th, as the probable upside potential of the breakout of the 600-615 area in which the average held for some six weeks in March and April. Despite the rise in the averages, my breadth-of-the-market studies still Indicate a loss of momentum. Upside volume has been decreasing, and downside volume increas- ing. Over the past ten weeks, there have been more stocks declining than advancing, even though the industrial average is some thirty points higher. Although'these may-;be on preliminary warning signals, they suggest some caution over the nearer term and the possibility of at least a lenghty consolidating period. There are, however, no definite indications of a long term top. The best course of action still appears to be one of finding issues that are still undervalued in the light of prospects for the forseeable 'future. Such an issue is (\ 0 COCA COIc1 Coca Cola is the closed at 141 5/8 r e for 1958-1959 has been 98 1/2 -141 3/4. The company is e rink industry, and accounts for 45 of the total industry sales. d b e)l.) over 100 countries around the world. There is no long term debt, a owns 28 of the 4,232,078 shares outstanding. E s 58 et'-e equal to 7.10 per share. Unremitted profits from for ' r e .15 additional per share so consolidated earnings were equ 8 . . rnings for the first quarter of 1959 were 1. 24 per share, compare to in the initial 1958 quarter. The company maintains 30 plants with 15 of t well scattered around the world. Most of its syrup prod- uction is sold to large bottling companies hich supply local and independent bottlers operating in exclusive territories. Coca Cola was the blue-chip growth stock of the 1920's, and 1930's. It sold at 170 1/2 in 1937, and 200 in 1946. Since the early 40's, its profit margins have been slowly declining due to increasing competition. New operating management has adopted a more aggressive merchandising policy than was followed, heretofore and the promotional budget is steadily being increased. Sales in 1958w'ere at a new peak, and given favorable weather, should attain a new high in 1959. Sales in the future will be helped by the rising birth rate starting in 1942, and continuing to the present. This will add 2 million or more additional customers each year to the teen- age group. Foreign sales are also showing an increaSing growth trend. Last Fall, the company introduced, in certain territories, five new carbonated drinks that had been sold abroad for four years. This may add substantially to domestic sales when distributed nationally. It is possible that earnings may reach 7.50 to 8.00 per share plus 1.50, from unremitted foreign profits. In the late 1930's, Coca Cola sold at 20 to 25 times earnings, and, with increaSing profit margins, this might happen again. In addition, there is the possibility of a dividend increase during 1959. A stock split is also entirely possible. Techmcally, the stock has a very ,-ttractive potential. It has broken a down- trend line which has been in effect since, 1946, and is near an upside breakout of the 95- 1'45 in which it has held for almost ten years. The stock appears, from a t T IS ('t lettenr eISQnilo ,Ilnd ,T'rtr. unJer no Circumstances IS to he con nlcd as, n o!1'er to sell or a solleltattan to buy any as to accuracy or completeness and the furnl;hmv thereof 1111 expreSSIOns of opimon are subJect to challICe WIthout notcJ…7i'U'hlthi'LCoVVl'Qc referred to herem. The 1 formnbon '-.h'dd…ll'JUId5J..lichornescttrourse,d as, n representnStockholder'! aod thereof, purchafle. lIell and may have no interest m the IICCllrltles mentIOned herem ThIS market letter IS mtcnd-erl and presented merely aB a general. informnl commentary on dllY to day mllrkct news Rn1 not as a complete nonly;ts Addltwnal 'F)Nt&nO)1!ltlml/cri 10 hereIn wI!1 be f\lrnlShed upon request \' 301

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