Viewing Month: July 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 02, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 02, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - July 02, 1959
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Walston &Co. FILE COP, Membe1's New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 2, 1959 The number of advances and new highs increased sharply during the past week and the improving breadth-of-the-market action resulted in an upside breakout of the recent trading range in the Dow-Jones Industrials. Friday's intra-day high was 659.18 as com- pared to the June 1st high of 648.65. The rails failed to definitely break out of their al- most six months trading area between 157 and 171, but should do so shortly. Just how far the averages can advance on this move is not technically apparent, but a large num- ber of individual issues indicate higher levels. While the,oils showed a little bit bet-ter price,action during the. past ,week, .they. are shll among the poorest acting groups. Some of the problems facing the petroleum indus- try are very ably summarized in the July 1st issue of Forbes, together with some very interesting statistics and estimates on operations, earnings and reserves of forty-six leading oil companies. At the moment, the main problem is a simple one — there is too much oil around. There are a great many other complicating factors such as in- creasing development and marketing costs, lowered profit margins, demands for a larger share of oil revenues from Latin America and the Middle East, import quotas, the at- tack on depletion allOWances, capital costs rising faster than capital generation, and doubts of the ability of the industry to attract the estimated 140 billion of new capital that the industry will probably require in the next ten years. On the favorable side is the rising demand for oil. It is conservatively estimated that free world consumption of oil will increase at least 300/0 between now and 1965 be- cause of rising living standards and population growth. Such a demand would probably take care of the increased supply and raise prices to a level that would assure a good profit even at present high replacement costs. Just how will last is, of course, the major problem. flO W oversupply From a technical viewpoint, most individual av ut the same general pattern although some issues show better relative a' than others, depending on the outlook for the various fields in which is a marketeer, is selling SAmerada, a crude \sp\ci'.;J . . Standard Oil of Kentucky, and well above its 1957 low, while It 7 low. In general, however, most oil stocks have been in a wid r 1 by the October 1957 lows and the late 1958 highs. the 1957 high on 0 1 highs were below the 1957 highs. For example, s The decline later that year carried the stock down to 38. In 1958, Ro utc ched 53 and has since declined to 41. From a technic I . point, the formation of this trading area has three possible implications. The f possible implication is that this area is a wide accumulation base from which a very sizable upward move could eventually develop. In the case of Royal Dutch, the upside potential is well above 100. It must be admitted that both from a fun- damental and technical relative strength viewpoint, such an upward move does not appear imminent. The second implication is that the entire area between the 1957 high of 60 and the 1957 low of 38 is a vast distributional area with stock passing from strong to weaker hands. This would mean substantially lower levels. While this is possible,it would appear c,uite improbille from a funda mental viewpoint despite the current uncer- tainties that plague the industry. Also, as evidenced by first quarter reports, several of the larger funds have been buyers of this issue. The third alternative is that Royal Dutch win remaifJ.-fn- the- broadtrading the petroleum situation clarifies. With the probability that either the first or third al- ternatives is the more likely, ROYAL DUTCH (42 5/8) appears to be at a buying level with a minimum of downside risk. It is already on my recommended list as is SHELL TRANSPORT & TRADING(19 1/8). Both issues are rated Buy-Hold. Another international oil, GULF OIL (111 1/8) is also on my list and was recommended at 115. It has a simllar technical pattern to the above two. However, I suggest a switch into UNION OIL (49 3/4) as it appears technically to have a better percentage appreciation possibility. GETTY OIL (22 1/4) also on our recommended list, is more difficult to evaluate both technically and fundamentally, but I continue to rate it Buy-Hold. Dow-Jones Industrials – 654.76 LJuw-Jones Kalls – 166. 2 EDMUND W. TABELL WA T.STGN & co me ThiS market letter is not, and under no circumstances IS to be construeI'! as. an offer to sell or a BohcltntJon to buy an) securities referred to herein The mformatlOn contamed herem IS nut guaranteed as tt accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof not alld under no CIrcumstances IS to be construed n reprcsentu- tlfla hy & Co, lac, All e'lpreSBlOas of opInIOn are subJect to change \\-ithout notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Jomployees thereof, purchase, Informnl commentary on day sell to d an ny d may have market new a s n a m nd tere not st I as fl D the securities mentIOned herem ThiS market letter 1 mtended complete analYSIS. AddItIOnal mformntlOn With respect to any and presented merely as a general, secuntJcs referred to hereIn WIll be furmshed upon request \\,N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 10, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 10, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - July 10, 1959
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Walston Inc -&—C-o-. fiLE COpy Members New Ym'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 10, 1959 As was expected, the Dow-Jones rail average finally broke out on the upside of the long (almost six months) trading range, between roughly 157 and 170. This is a constructive technical development and confirms the strength already shown by the indus- trial section of the list. Subject to mild correctionary moves, the market appears to be headed higher after the three-month consolidating period between 610 and 648 from April to June and the longer period for the rails. The utilities, under the negative influence of money rates, will probably not participate in the advance to any great extent. As I have .said before, the market is probably in the final phase of the major ad- vance that started in 1949. This final phase startedat the October, 1957, lows. As mentioned in my letter of March 6th, a study of the 14 major upswings that have taken place since 1885 indicates that the average time duration was thirty months and the aver- age percentage advance was 1110/0. To meet the average would mean that the present market advance might continue to April, 1960 and reach a high of around 880. Whether the advance will be below or above average is, of course, not ascertainable, but if the advance reached its peak at the recent high of 668.26, it would be the smallest percent- age advance since the turn of the century, and from a timing viewpoint would just about be equal to the two shortest upswings since the same time period. As the present advancing phase continues, it is to be expected that action will be increasingly selective and also that more speculative issues will come into play. Until the present phase started in October, 1957, the low-priced issues have done little marketwise since 1946. Despite the sharp runups in the general market in 1951-1952 and 1956-1957, it was not until mid-1958, twelve years later, that the index of low- priced stoc.kS able t.o penetrate the 1946 high. The issues topped out m Apnl of th1S year, but after a three-rwwth 0 s enod, began to show some signs of a renewal of strength. . . The advance since the first of the year has sele e and will continue 4 – . -0 co . ' . hand, quite a few gr u s l' b w'the prices at the start of the year despite an advance of arou . a The below-average groups were sugar, cans, food chains, sulph , s, o usiness machines, air crafts and utilities. Most of the ro at have led the advance continue to show good technical action. The electro' ssues moved ahead very shl;rply earlier in the year and reached their upside objectives outlined by the 1957-1958 bases. They have had a sharp correct- ion and may be in the process of building up new accumulation patterns. The textile issues continue to indicate higher price levels. The airlines are among my favored groups. Two issues are on my recommended list, one of which is a prospectus issue. The other is NORTHWEST AIRLINES (42) which has recently been in a consolidating phase after reaching a high of 46 1/8 earher in the year. This issue continues to indi- cate higher levels from a technical as well as fundamental viewpoint. Other attractive issues are American Airlines and United Airlines. The rubbers also should continue their uptrend, although some issues have advanced sharply and may be in need of con- solidation. My favorite is DAYTON RUBBER (355/8) which is on my recommended list. The farm equipment groupis represented by OLIVER CORP.(21 1/4), a low-pnced 1ssue; the aluminum selectlons are KAISER ALUMINUM (59 1/2) and U.S.FOIL B (70 1/2) which still indicate higher levels over the longer term despite the healthy advance already regiS teredo KAISER INDUSTRIES (18 5/8) on our low-priced list, is also a beneficiary in any advance in the aluminum stocks as well as steels. The meat packing group has been ably represented by WILSON & CO. (43), which has appreciated 1800/0 from its originally recommended level of 15. In fact, most of the meat packing group looks attractive. I like most of the issues in the group. I am adding to my low-priced speculahve list a meat packing stock that is subject to foreign uncertainties but has an attractive technical pattern. It 1S INTERNATIONAL PACKERS (155/8). It will be reviewed later. Dow-Jones Ind. 663.56 DQw-IOpeS Rails 72 22 EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter not, and under no IS to he construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcitatlOn to buy any F;ecuntlel reierred to herem The lnfOrmutlOn contamed herem not v;uarnnteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof 1, not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, a reprccnta. bon by Walton & Co, Inc All expressIOns of opinion are subject to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, pure-hase, mformal commentary on day tsoelldaayndmmarakyethntlewe sananIdntneoretsatsilal the secUrities mentIOned herem This market letter IS illtended complete analy&!, AdditIOnal mformatIOn WIth resPect to any and presented merely as a genelal, secUrities referred to herem ,ill be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 17, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 17, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - July 17, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–lnc —– Members New Y01'k Stock Excw,nge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 17, 1959 Uncertainty about the duration of the steel strike will probably call a temporary halt in the recent stock market upturn and result in a broad trading shelf in the averages for a period of time. During this period, individual issues will pursue their own In,C1epe,nc1t' ent courses as dlctated by earnings, new developments, etc. As far as the averages are concerned, the Dow-Jones Industrials will probably meet support at around the 650-640 level as compared with the recent high of 668.26, and the Rails should meet support m the broad 170-157 area in the Rail average in which they have held for SlX months until the recent mild upside range in both 'averages penetra vllll be toionnln. e'Tuphseideevewntiuthalsehmoret-r'g1eenrmce't1omf tihngis-dceopnetheamehptla'otend trading ments on the labor front. During the current irregularity, I would add to holdings in groups wlth favored long term techmcal potentials and showing the best relative strength patterns at the moment. Such a classification would include selected issues in groups such as airlines, aluminum, chemical, coal, electrical equipment and electronics; liquor, machmery, meat packing, movies, railroads, soft drinks, steel and textiles, and other miscellaneous issues mentioned m my various technical studies. To many investors, the past two or three years have been puzzling ones. It has appeared that on the basis of all traditlOnal yardsticks, the stock market is terrI- fically overvalued. Perhaps a look at the broad pattern of growth trends, market evaluations and price movements might be of value in clarifying the present positlon of the market. The long term major trend of our economy, and, therefore, of stock prices, 1S toward higher levels. This basic trend will remain in force as long as America continue to grow and there is no reason to believe that there IS long term concept. The investor who has continuously investwl, in t e n st cks of a broad segment of American industry has fared very well Unfortunately, this long term upward e rs in s prices has not been t-li-ne progr-ession. ,.rheI'e-have be ions to a lesser extent, 1946 and 1957. Th i t pt ,and subsequent advances, can- – If these yardstlcks were the 1 movements, all the successful inve would need a Stock p e e a dtling machine. c y four factors. Three of these are fundamental and basic. Theyaree i s, i' nds and money rates. The fourth factor, and sometimes the most important, s v mtang1ble. It is a thing called investor confidence. Investor confidence IS that i Ible thmg that makes a stock earning 5.00 a share sell at 125. a share, or twenty-five times earnings, when investor confidence is high,and makes the same stock still earning 5.00 a share sell at 35.00 a share or seven times earnings when investor confidence is low. Investor confidence is impossible to measure by figure It is an emotional something that cannot be put down on paper. Perhaps the be st app to how investors feel at a given time period is by watching the technical action of the market. That is why I maintain a library of 2000 graphs of individual issues and breadth- of-the -market studies. At the moment, investor confidence is extremely high. Immediate earnings and dividends are not important. Many stocks are selling today on the basis of what they will earn several years from now, and the investor is confident that earnings will be higher. This confidence has not'always been with us.-In th-e period, blue cnip issues like General Electric sold as low as seven times earnings to yield over 7. Earnings were improvmg, but investors did not believe the improvement would last. Investor confidence was low and everybody was waitmg for the usual post-war depresslOn that never happened. Technical market action durmg the 1946-1950 period built up the huge accurnulatlOn patterns that resulted in the present rise. At the moment, investor confidence remains high. Until something happens to change this intangible factor, the stock market can and will move hIgher. As I have stated before, I believe the stock market is in the final phase of the advance that started in 1949. There are no technical indications as yet that this final phase has ended. Dow-Jones Ind. – 657.13 Dow-Jopes R.ails – 166 95 EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO.INC. ThiS market letter 18 not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcltatlon to buy any secUrities referred. to herem The mformfl.tlOn contamed herein IS not tuarantcerl as to accuracy or compLeteness !Lnrl the furnlshlllg thlrcof IS not. and under no cIrcumstances is to be conatrued DS, a reprC'lentatlon hy Walston & Co, Inc All e..pre9Blons of OplTIlOn ure subJect to change 'Ithollt notICe. Walston & Co. Inc. nnd Officers, Directors, Stockholdera nnd Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest ID the securlues mentiOned herem. Thla market letter 15 intended and prC!!ent.ed merely as a general, mfufronrlsmhaeld cuopmomn erntarey on qday touday mearkest newts a'nd not as a complero analyllis Additional lllformntlon with nSpect to any St'CUrltl(!S referred to herein WWNill 3b01e

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 24, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 24, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - July 24, 1959
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I 1—– Wdlston &- CO. Inc Member's New YOj'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 24, 1959 With the exception of a few sharp price advances in individual issues, the market h s been marking time since the beginning of the month. The Dow-Jones Industrials have bee ranging in roughly the 670-650 area and the rails between 174 and 165. This consolidatin phase may continue for the balance of July and into August. From a technical viewpoint, it would appear that any weakness at this paint will be relatively mild and should be used as a buying opportunity. The indications'on many of my graphs paint to the probability of the start of a new advancing phase in the not too far distant future that could carry through, with minor interruptions, for the balance of the year. I expect that some of the lower-priced listed speculatIve issues will ward move. This group has been dormant since the early part of the year when it succeeded for the first time in thirteen years in penetrating the 1946 high on my index of low-priced stocks. While many issues are selling at all-time highs, there are still issues to be had with attractive potentials which are selling below the highs of recent issues. Two such issues are reviewed below and are being added to my recommended list. AMERICAN VISCOSE (52 3/8) is America's largest producer of rayon and the second largest producer of cellophane. It also owns a 50 interest in Chemstrand Corpo- ration, a major producer of nylon and Acrilan synthetic fiber. Rayon operations, sharply depressed in 1958 when the company earned only 1. 36 per share, have picked up sharply with 1.53 earned in the first half. A net of 3. 25 from operations is thus possible for 1959. The company's new viscose tire yarn, Tyrex, has been in heavy derrand and it is expected to make rayon fiber once more competitive material for tire cord. With the growth of convenience packaging, celloph e s e all3e increasing sharply and are expected to continue to increase plastic. \.Yv p' 'n m transparent Meanwhile, it becomes more and C strand is truly a growth -enter,prise.. The company.has-incr.eased sa . ms-rJU . illion-in-1955. to 1.7.2..m.illion in 1958, and a further sharp e is year. Avisco's other major affiliate, Ketchikan Pulp, quirements, went into f 11 sc e abQ!ttohalf of the parent company's pulp re1958. American Viscose's equity in the earnings of th s i eached 1. 61 in the first half and should better 3.25 for 58. This would bring consolidated earnings close to the 6.50 level, con' ed growth in all segments of the operation in prospect for 1960. The technical attern reflects the improving picture, indicating an eventual 65 followed by a possible long term 120. CONSOLIDATION COAL (36) is the largest and one of the most efficient domestic coal producers, with an extensive reserve position. This company also experlenced difficulties in 1958 with per-share earnings dropping to the second lowest level in ten years. Again, a sharp recovery for 1959 is expected. Steel shipments will be up sharply this year despite interruptions due to the strike and the sales of coal to utilities will show continued growth. General indu strial sales should improve along with growing industrial activity, and earnings could be fairly close to the record 2.90. Over the long ferm, the company's reserve pOSition and research leadership augurs well for the future. It is the leader in coal chemistry research and is now operating America's first coal pipeline which transports coal 108 miles to Cleveland from a mine in southern Ohio. It is also doing extensive work with fuel cells which draw el,ectricity directly from a chemical reaction. Ability to reach 42 would indicate 50-80 from the technical pOint of Vlew. Dow-Jones Industrials 663.72 Dow-Jones Rails 167.69 EDMUN,D W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thll market letter 15 not. and under no circumstances 11 to be construed as, an offer to sell or n sohCltation to buy an\- SecUritIes referred to herem The information contamed herem IS not Inlaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furmshing thereof IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, n. reprc;enta hon by \Valston & Co. Inc. All expressions of opmion are subject to change Without notice V;'alston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors. Stockholders and thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest in the securities menboned herem. ThiS market letter is mtended and presented merely ns a general, mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatlOn Volth respect to any securlbe! referred to herem Will be furmshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\,N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 31, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 31, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - July 31, 1959
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Walston &Co. Inc FILE M em be,',\ New YOTk Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADElPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 31, 1959 During the past week, the Dow-Jones Industrials reached a fractional new intra- day high at 678.67 as compared with an early July high of 668.26. I say a fractional new ,high because a rise of ten points in the Industrial average now only amounts to 5/8 of 1. The Rails, held back by the temporary decline in carloadings because of the steel strike, were unable to even approach the early July high of 174.41, much less the 1956 high of 182.54. This last figure compares with a 1956 high of 524.37 on the Industrial average which closed on Friday 29 above the 1956 high. Many rails appear very modest ,pricedhcn compared with the industrials. of .the week was a.sudde burst 'of strength in the oil shares.- This strength showed signs of petering out as the week closed, but if it can be revived, it would be a most encouraging development. The oils; as far as relative strength is concerned, have been among the poorest acting groups. As for the near term general market action, I expect continued strength in selected issues, but a continued consolidating phase in the averages followed by an upward pene- tration in the not too far distant future. Earnings reports for the first half of 1959were more favorable than most people anticipated. Quite a few of the companies on my recommended list have issued six months results. MONSANTO CHEMICAL (55 1/4) reported 1.51 earned for a 1000/0 in- crea'se over the 1958 period. I continue to advise retention of this issue which originally entered my list at 35. The nearer term technical objective is 65 followed by a longer terrrl., 88. DAYTON RUBBER ( 34 1/8) also showed a 100 increase with against I think this issue, recently recommended at 32, has a considerable amount of attraction. Frofu what I gather, Goodyear's reduction of 5 to 15 in the price of replacement tires will little effect on most rubber companies ' into new fields and has a urethane division producing unde'r the trade name of Stafoam. Technically, th 0 id and pblyether typ an' 1al objective of 55. CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, ST. PAUL & PACIFIC (29 cut' sual first-half deficit -afteJ; preferred dividends very sharply. –T . d,- . st-all-grain–beit' carriers,re- its earnings in the t elve months ended June 30th, 1959 the road shows earnings of 28 mpetently managed and has some very interesting merger originally recommended at 26, has a teqhnical projecti reached just by . fi1! . .i . termediate term. Such an objective could be and earning power. Merger developments could result in a price Ie uc' er than that over the longer term. NATIONAL DISTILLERS (321/ i ased earmngs to 1.05 from a 1958 six-month figure of The dividend was i ased from quarterly to quarterly. Recommended at 27, the stock still qualifies for purchase on the basis of improved earnings for its rapidly growing chemical division as well as the distilling division and the stock's excellent long,term technical pattern. NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING (42 1/8) also showed an excellent six-month report with 2.93 earned as against 1. 33 in 1958. Billings carried over from last year may have resulted in somewhat higher earnings than anti- cipated. This issue is selling below my original recommendation at 47, but the longer term favorable outlook indicates purchase for the patient long term holder. PENNSALT CHEMICAL (33) has not yet issued its official report, but the president indicated earn- ings will be 50 above the 1958 level. Originally suggested at 23 7/8 (on a 3-for-1 split basis) I this stock merits abuy-hold rating. It has PFobably the best long term techn, ical pattern m the chemical group. RAYONIER (27 1/2) showed a sharp increase in first-half results when it reported 1. 20 against in 1958. Recommended at 19, this issue reached its first objective of 30 at the recent h1gh. Would still hold as the stock has a higher long term potential. AMERICAN CAN (45 1/4) and PHILIP MORRIS (59 1,/4) both showed modest increases in earnings. These two issues recommended at 42 and 48, respectively, have done little marketwise for quite some time. They are both good yielding investment issues and can be held on that basis. However, for better six-month or longer capital appreciation, the two issues recommended last week, AMERICAN VISCOSE (53 5/8) and CONSOLIDATION COAL (39 1/8) appear more attract- ive technically and would suggest a switch. MAGNAVOX (66 3/4) indicates they will recommend a 2-for-1 spilt shortly. This stock, recommended at 40, shll merits a hold. Technics pot9ptiaJ is 85 folJoU''ic' by 110 T'l'w&,w!rWlflj.ej.,lS1Ult,.IQud.l.LIlUtl'flt l W he construed nil, nn offer to or fl herem The mformabon .I.t!It'i'lneGll\elJm n… 6061QctenesB and the fUrnlBhlng thereof IS Itl\Et comtrued as, a repreS(.ntn- i3Pll'Jc….. An c),.ltr!fllltOnrnX' oPinion ntC' gubJcct to chnng(' without 4 'C6J.,'1ITIli Stockholders and nnd.fllnltJJt\1Jnn mterest In the BeCUrities mentIOned herein ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as II. general. wformnl commentary on duy to day market news and not ns n complete nnnlysl' Aild!tLonnl InformutlOn With leSpeCt to nny secUilhes ref(.rred to herein Will be fur01shed upon r e q u e s t ' \\.N 301

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