Viewing Month: March 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 06, 1959
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fiLE COPV NEW YORK Walston &- Co. Inc Members New YOk Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 6, 1959 It is probable that in every major rise in stock market history there has existed a school of theorists who have claimed the rise was unfounded and that perdition was around the corner. Thus,as the market continues to reach new high ground today, sophisticated analysts look upon the rise with skepticism and tend to lean more toward a conservative policy with every new upward surge of the Dow-Jones average. Technical theorists have never held with this approach, preferring to believe,along with the late Samuel Dow,that a trend.once established,tends to remain in force. Anoth r c;orn,e!.s!oneof technicalt!leQry is that hi,sto!'Yhproper1y)nterRreted,pr-qYldes , guide -to probable future events. In this -connection, and in answer to'that school of ana – lysts which fears a rising market, it is interesting to compare the current bull market upswing with similar upturns in the past. Such a comparison was made in our January 16th letter when it was pointed out at some length that, in every year since 1935, the low of the previous December was brcken early in the year or not at all. It was stressed, indeed, that never in those 23 years had the December low been broken after April. As March comes upon us there appears to be little likelihood of the December bottom in any of the averages being pene trated in the next few weeks. Another interesting study can be made dealing with the length and extent of the averf- age bull market. The following table, based on the Dow-Jones Industrials,lists the 14 major bull market ,upswings that have taken place since 1885, together with the number of months they continued and their percentage advance. Close students of the averages may wish to argue with our definitions of a bull market. In general, we have tried to lean to the side of conservatism, i. e., the 1921-1929 bull markets are broken into three phases, whereas many t e continuous upswir g Low 2296..1144 – Date High 74//22//8858 —3937.1.274 Date 5117 N. th 2 – ' – 3 242 .- – – – – – 20.90 8/8/96 56. 94 172 30.92 52.40 11/9/03 7/30/14 110. /co'f;)'1.tJ 27 28 144 110 65. 95 63.90 85.76 135.20 40.56 84.58 92.69 160.62 254.36 41fl.15 8/ 10/2 3 3/30/2 7/8/3 2/26/34 4/28/42 6/14/49 9/15/53 10/22/57 11\6 16 .10 111. 93 195.59 213.36 295.06 524.37 615.77 3/19 3/20/23 2/11/26 9/3/29 2/5/34 3/10/37 5/29/46 1/5/53 4/9/56 3/2/59 23 19 36 39 19 36 49 42 31 15 81 65 92 185 175 131 130 84 106 47 '' '' to date. From the above study a number of conclusions may be drawn. It will be notE d that, so far, the current bull market has lasted 15 months and advanced 470/0. In 14 previous bull markets the average length of time was 30 months and the median length 29.5 months. The average percentage advance was 1110/0 and the median percent advance was 108. The shortest of all bull markets under study was 17 months long and took place prior to the turn of the century. The smallest percentage rise was 320/0 also in the 1890. Measured against these figures it would appear that the current 15-month, 470/0 rise has been extremely moderate. Indeed, if it were to conf.)rm to the average, it would carry to April, 1960 and reach a high of 878. Whether these lofty figures will ce'attained is questionable, but it seems to be a proven fact that bull markets often continue far beyond the expectations of many investors. AWTat EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not, and under no circumstances 18 to be construed U5. an offer to sell or n soitCltatlOn to buy any securities referred to herem The informatIOn ('ontumed herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completcnl!SS nnd the furnishing thereof 18 not, and under no cIrcumstances is to be construed as, a rcpr(!Senta- tlon h) \\'nlston & Co, Inc All e'ICpresslOns of opinIOn nrc subJect to change v,lthoul notIce 'alston & Co, Inc., and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders nnd t-;mIJoyces therrof, purchase, sell nnd may have an mtere'lt 10 the secUrIties mentioned herem, Thl l1!arket letter IS Intendell and presented merely as a general, mformal commentary on ia to da)' market nevo'l! and not as a complete anaiyslb AddLilonailnformatlOn ltb respect to IIny seeuntll.'s referred to herein will be furnJshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\'N 30l

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 13, 1959 page 1
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, -W–a-l-sltnocn.-&-C–o-. FILE COpy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 13, 1959 The Dow-Jones Industrial average reached new high territory on Friday at an intra-day high of 618.80. Technical work indicates a possible 625 on this short-term mov , followed by a consolidating period before the advance is resumed. Despite the sharp ad- vance, there are still no signs of any long-term technical vulnerability. Would continue to ignore the various averages and concentrate on the action of individual issues. Below is a review of all of the issues on my recommended list. These recommend tions are for the intermediate term holder whose objective is sizable long-term capital gains of six months to two years. These recommendations are not designed for the short- rerrtftra-der in moves-of a few points. – .. AMERICAN CAN (49) has done little marketwise since its original recommendatio at 42. However, the stock has a sizable long-term upside potential and support close to the market, so there appears to be a minimum of downside risl. Yield is slightly over 4. BUY-HOLD BUTLER BROS. (39) was recently recommended at around present levels. Divi- dend has been increased to 45 quarterly to yield 4.2. Technical pattern suggests a slow rise to the 60 level. BUY-HOLD CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, ST. PAUL & PACIFIC (28) Recently recommended in the 28-26 range. This rail has very sizable upside potentials because of possible merger developments. Has had wide moves back and forth in the 30-10 range since 1951. Ability to break out of this would give a very constructive technical indication. Stock yields 5 1/2 at present dividend rate of 1.60 annually. Very attractive, in my opinion. BUY-HOLD CL,'ETT PEABODY (55) Recently recommended O An important manufacturer of men's apparel, but also has a et process,Clupak, with an excellent earnings potential. Stock has a ov 8 a share and yield of over 4. Technical pattern suggests s over the longer term. BU.Y- BQLD . . . . .. FAMILY FINANCE (32) The to a a 0 advance from our originally . action may be slow, but can b . desiring income. Yields approximately 50/0. HOLD FLINTK a ecommended at 46, the stock still suggests higher l.L…. ,ie ' . HOLD most of the oils, this stock has shown below-average action since my recommen n at 28. However, a very strong potential base pattern appears to be building up in this stock. Timing is difficult, but patience should be rewarded in this issue. Ability to move above the October high of 30 1/4 would be constructive and indicate considerably higher levels. BUYHOLD GIMBEL BROS. (45) The stock has had a nice rise since our original recommenda tion at 27. Still has a 45-55 potential. HOLD GULF OIL (117) Still selling around our originally recommended level. From a technical point of view, the stock appears to be building a wide potential base in the 100129 range. BUY-HOLD HEINZ, H.J. & CO. (70) Originally recommended at 56, the stock still has a very interesting upside potential. With 80 of earnings from foreign sources, profit margins tligh. BUY-HOLD HERCULES POWDER (61) Has advanced from originally recommended level of 48 but still has a minimum technical objective of 75. HOLD HOFFMAN ELECTRONICS (54) This stock originally entered our list in the 22-2 area. The base formed in that range indicated an objective of 43-52. Later action indi- cated 52-57. At the high of 541/2, these objectives have been achieved. Probably the stock of this well managed company will consolidate in a trading area to form a new patte This may take time so I am dropping it from my recommended list for the time being. Switch into other issues in list. HOOKER CHEMICAL (43) Originally recommended at 35, the stock has an upside potential of 50-60. HOLD ThiS lett.llr IS not, Rnd under llo Circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to Bell or n solicitatIOn W buy any securities referred to herem The mCol'mation contnlned hcrem IS not guaranteed a!\ to accuracy or completencss and the fut'mshml thereof IS not, and undcr no O!It'cumstances is to be construed as, B representa- iwn lW Wnlstnn & Co, Inc. All cXprcsswns of omnlon al c subJect to ch);lnJ.!'c 'j\.lthout notICe Walston & Co, lnc, and OffIcers, DIrectors, Stockholders llnd Employees therC(lf. purchase, sell and may hll\e an interest In the securities mentIOned herein ThiS market lettcr IS mtcnded Bnd presented merely as a general, mformal commentary on dllY to dny market news and not as n complete analYSIS Additional information With respect to any securities referred to herem wlil be (urfllilhed upon r e q u e s t ' Wr,' JOI fBtE COpy – INTERNA TIONAL MINERALS & CHEMICAL (30) This has been the most disappointing issue in my list. It has done practically nothing pricewise and is selling just a shade above its origmally recommended level. However, its potential base is so wide that I am continuing to recommend the issue. to reach 34 would be extremely constructive technically and indicate much higher levels. BUY-HOLD MAGNAVOX (57) The stock has rallied sharply from the recommended level of 40, but still indicates higher levels. BUY-HOLD MONSANTO CHEMICAL (47) Has moved ahead nicely from the recommended level of 38, but still has a higher technical objective. BUY-HOLD NA TIONAL DISTILLERS (34) This is one of my favorite issues for long-term appre- ciation. It has moved ahead from its originally recommended level of 27, but still has a very sizable upside potential for the longer term. BUY-HOlD NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING (49) Has done little marketwise since it was recom- 47 has a ve!Y20und favorable longterm pattern. BUY-HOLD — — – – — NORTHROP CORP. (42) One of the more interesting missile-electronic stocks. Has advanced from a 33-31 recommended level, but still has a much higher potential,in my opinion. BUY-HOLD NORTHWEST AIRLINES (41) See my letter of February 27th when this stock was recommended at 38. This is one of the more attractive airline issues and indicates higher levels. Earnings for 1959 should be above 5.00. BUY-HOLD PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAYS (30) This issue has been one of my airline favorites for a long time and was originally recommended at 15. Still indicates higher levels, despite its 1000/0 advance. BUY-HOLD PENNSALT CHEMICAL (89) The stock has risen from a recommended 71, but has a much higher potential. Believe it to be one of the more dynamic issues in the chemical group for long-term holding. BUY- HOLD PHILIP MORRIS (64) Has advanced steadily from a recommended level of 48, but I still advise continued purchase and retention. BUY-HOLD ROHR AIRCRAFT (24) Is still selling at my recommended level of 24. The com- pany's principal product is a power package for jet, prop-jet and propeller aircraft. 600/0 of backlog is commercial. Technically, it has a much higher potential. BUY-HOLD TCH(44) Se-interrfati-onat oils– are selling below the recommended levels of 48 and 22. However, like Gulf Oil, they are building up very sizable potential bases and upside objectives appear to outweigh downside risk, but patience may be required. BUY-HOLD SINGER MFG. (46) Believe this issue is outstandingly attractive. Recommended at 48, it advanced to 54 7/8 and is now below recommended levels. Book value is a stated 81. a share, but is probably considerably higher. BUY-HOLD WILSON & CO. (38) This stock has advanced 1500/0 from my recommended level of 15, but I am still advising its purchase. Management is excellent and earnings should continue to improve. BUY-HOLD LOW-PRICED STOCKS This group was recommended on November 7, 1958 as a package, with the exception of the more recent recommendation of Home Oil A and B – Recommended Price Current Price Remarks Avco Corp. 9 13 Buy-Hold Chemway Curtis Publishing Decca Records Divco Wayne Freuhauf Home Oil A or B Hotel Corp. National Can Pacific Petroleum Publicker Rayonier United Industrial 11 17 15 14 18 19 17 17 — 25 20 19 78 14 13 18 16 11 14 19 25 13 14 Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold BUY-I1old – Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold .. The upside potentials on all of the issues mentioned in this letter will be found in my Technical Analysis of 1,100 Common Stocks, Copies are available to clients in all Walston & Co. offices, , EDMUND W, T ABELL WALSTON & CO.INC, .-.-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 20, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange 'fIt NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 20, 1959 With apologies for subjecting the reader to guessing games, this letter would like to pose the following query What do these stocks have in common Aluminum Co. of America, Coca-Cola, DuPont, General Motors, International Nickel, International Paper Kennecott, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Westinghouse Electric, Union Pacific. The first obvious point of Similarity is that all the foregoing companies are leaders in their respect ive industries. The second point, which, at first glance, may not be so obvious is that, with the Dow-Jones Industrial average selling at 610 vs. the 1956-57 high of under 525, all of these stocks are selling well under their previous bull market peaks . This is nothing more than another. way of. t.hat the query, What is the market going to do is the'most fruitless of all investors' questions. The investor buys and sells stocks, not the market. The security analyst recommends stocks, not the market. It is the task of this letter, therefore, to recommend securities where value seems to exist. In 1948, the writer was lucky enough to predict that the Dow-Jones Industrial aver age would reach 500 by the mid-1950s. The prediction, however, would have proved wort less had it recommended United Shoe Machinery (then 52, now 51), or Underwood (then 45, now 28), as vehicles for participation in that growth. Another way of pointing out the same thing is by utilizing the supposition that the investor could buy the Dow-Jones Industrial average, and furthermore that he could ac- curately have predicted everyone of the thirteen major swings that have taken place from June, 1949, to date. On this basis, assuming the investor had bought at every bottom,and sold short at every top, he would have netted 78,000 on a 10,000 investment after pay- ment of taxes. Obviously, this would be impossible, Upssible in 1949,how ever, to have put 10,000 into Standard Oil of New Jerse T would be worth 55,000 after taxes, and an investment in I.B.M. bas' ould be worth 114,000. Theoretically, our investor could have a bit sophisticated. He mig t .. boughLStanc!arcLOilof N.J. m 1949, to Alcoa in-August 1954, in al Electric in January, 1952 DavifnflJUne-lll57, Corp. in December 1958. On that 00 mvested would be worth 619,700 after payment of all taxes. e still further, had he bought Dana Corp. in June 1949, switche a . e!-'in April 1953, to Lorillard in June 1957, and to Zenith in Sept b 9 w now have 3,665,000 after payment of taxes. In any case, he had a f i d n' rably better investment results by 'seeking out individua stock values than by ryi guess swings in the Dow-Jones Industrials. Nor is the st of different industries any substitute for the analysis of individua stocks. Again going back to 1949, it was possible to choose between three stocks in the Railroad industry selling at 18 per share, Pennsylvania, N. Y. Central, and Denver & Rio Grande Western. Pennsylvania is still selling at 18, N.Y.Central has advanced to 27, and Denver Rio Grande Western adjusted for a 500/0 stock dividend, and a three-for- one split, is now selling for the equivalent of 297. The same principle has held true in recent years. For example, both Wilson and Swift & Co. are now selling around 38. At their respective 1956 highs, Wilson was at 17, and Swift was at 50, Northwest and Easte Airlines both sell around 42. At their 1956 highs, Northwest was at 17 and Eastern at 57 All of the above statistics are valueless unless their current lesson is heeded. This lesson is a very simple one, it is that the investor should cease worrying about the rapidity of the markeFrise and the possibilityof-a correction, and,turn,his attention to indivldual stock values where they exist. I ended last week's letter by saying that the upside potentials of all of the issues in my recommended list could be found m my Technical Analysis of 1,100 Common Stocks, and was available to clients in all Walston offices. What I meant was that it is available for perusal by Walston clients. Our representatives only have one copy. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. '!1rket letter III not, lind under no circum;tnnCf! 1; to be Cf)fllltrued nil, an offer to hell or II sohclwtlOn to buy any referred to herelll The lIlformabon c()ntulIl(!d ,hereIn IB not gunrnntcetlnll to accurllCY or compietene–s lind lhe furnl91unv thereof I not, linn unil(!r no ClrcumstanCC9 I to be construed II. a reprcsentll- t!on by \\ alston & Co, Inc All e'lpreS'lon9 uf nplIllon are sllhJect to change Without notice 'Ya1ston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholdcrs Rnd F mllioycc'l purchase. sell and mdY hnve an Interest III the securIties mentIOned herelll Thl9 market letter III mtended and presented m(!rely as a gell(!ral fIunrfnolrlmlhneld cuopmonmerenqtaureyston ilny to day market new Hn.! not as a complete Adciltumnl informatIOn Ith respect to any securitieS referred to herem will WN J01

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 26, 1959
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Walston &Co. Inc —….;;- Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEL1.'S MARKET LETTER March 26, 1959 The general market drifted lower during most of the week with the Dow-Jones Industrials, at 606.58, off 3.79 points from the previous Friday's close. Volume of trad n on the New York Stock Exchange declined along with the dip in the price level. The real scene of activity was the American Stock Exchange where the volume was almost equal to that of the Big Board. Many stocks of extremely questionable quality hav been having a field day on the American Stock Exchange in recent weeks. This activity reached a climax in the past fortnight and on Thursday, these stocks took a severe beatin and suffered drastic price declines both in number of points and percentagewise. This sho have come as no great surprise to anyone. It was Just a matter of when it was going to ha – pen ana'hoW-ridicuJously lilgli someof'fneseissues were ine-vitab1e decline occurred. In a sense, the market situatlOn today is quite similar to that of March, 1955. At that time the market had been advancing for eighteen months and had moved from 255 in the Dow-Jones Industrials to over 420. The advance had everyone worried, including Washington, and Congress conducted the Fulbright mquiry. There were sharp advances in issues of questionable quality with the only difference from today being that the names were different ones — like Bellanca Aircraft, United Dye Works, and others. In March of 1955, issues of this type declined sharply and continued to drift lower for two years. The general market declined mildly, in sympathy, from 420 to 385 and then continued to advance until April, 1956 when the industrial average reached 525. The technical pattern is quite similar today. Most stocks have only small top pat- terns,if any. The Industrial average has a strong support level at 600 to 580 and the nical pattern suggests a dip into the support zone. There terioration in the great majority of issues. \W of longer term de- While a great number of issues appear to 0 ist' y priced today, ther are a number of good values shll around. NORTHR FAORP 1/4) is a case in pOint. Earnings for the six months ended January er ced last week at 1. 97 a share, a-gainst -108-2 the-previous t, -Resea-rch -Department has' – just issued an excellent hIWC electronic and missile stocks 'Il! t t points out that in their search for be overlooking Northrop which derives nearly 700/0 of e r 'cs, missiles and related products, and ment expects thi companies west of t 1 ase. Northrop ranks among the largest electronics is s 1 with electronic sales alone higher than such substan- tial enterprises as A pe eckman Instruments, Consolidated Electrodynamics, and Hoffman Electronics espite these factors, the stock is selling at only 9.4 times earmngs of 4.29 for the fiscal year ended July 31, 1958. Northrop is on my recommend ed list. Another issue on my recommended list that appears undervalued is WILSON & C (37) despite its sharp advance from a recommended level of 15 to 38. Earmngs for the flscal year ended October 31st were 3.10 a share, but are estimated at a possible 4.50 a share for the 1959 flscal period. Improved operating methods, packaging and fication have madette meat packing much less cyclical than in the past. Another company showing an improving picture is tTORTHWEST AIRLINES (40 3/4). February revenues set an all-time record for the month. Its new route from Chicago to Florida has largely eliminated the I.\sual large seasonal losses in the winter months. Estimates of 1959 earn- ings incicate 5.00 a share before possible capital gains. Some of the railroad earnings for the first two months of 1959 make interesting comparisons with a year ago. Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe earned 21 vs. 11, Southern Pacific 1.20 vs. 84, and Vv'estern Pacific 1.26 VS. 49. The rail average has been resting in the 168-157 area since mid-January and has built up an excellent potential base. EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter IS not., und under no IS to be construed DS, nn offer to sell or n sOhcltatlOn to buy any seeuTltJes referred to herem The mformation contnmcd herem m)t J.!;unranteed as to nccurucy or completeness and the thereof lS not, and under no clt'c\zmstanre; 111 to he ('ons1rued as, n rePrcsenta- tum bl- 'nlston &. Cn. Inr. All e).presSlOns of OIHIllon arc subJect to Without notICe Walston & Co. Inc. nnd Officers. D1rectors. StockhOldQrs and Empin)oees thereof purchn!e sell nnd may hae an Interest In the flccurltle9 mentIOned herem Thlq market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general. mformnl eomrnentnry on to nay market news nnd not as n complete El.nll!)o;ls. AddltlOnal mformntlon with respect to an)' lIeellrltlcs referred to her(!Jn wIll be fUlnZc,hed upon r C f l u e s t ' \\'N 301

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