Viewing Month: April 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 03, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange FILE NEW YORK ' SAN FRANCISCC ' LOS ANGElES ' PHILADElPHIA ' CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 3, 1959 Considering the sharp drops (30 to 40 in some instances) in a number of over- exploited speculative issues, the general market performed in excellent technical fashion during the past week. It largely ignored the gyrations of the lunatic fringe and reacted moderately from the mid-March high of 618.80 to an intra-day low of 599,21 on Tuesday, a decline of only a little more than 3. By Friday, much of the lost ground had been re- gained; an intra-day high of 614.39 being reached. Even more impressive was volume action. The top turnover (and the high of the market) was reached on March 13th with volume at 4,880,000 shares. At Tuesday's low, trading had dropped to 2,820,000 shares -a'decline of 40. cFurtheTrribre, halted-arthe'fitst supportzone- the top of the 600-580 area. Also, the rail average, at an intra-day low of 157.73 on Tuesday, fail- ed to break below the February low of 157.13. So far, action has been impressive. Best technical action from here on would be a quieting down phase with a further consolidatin period followed by an eventual upside penetration of the highs in both the industrial and rail averages. As mentioned in last week's letter, the present stage of the market, in my opinion, is quite similar to the March 1955 stage of the 1953-1956 rise. In March, 1955, the Indu – trial average already had completed 60 of its eventual advance. Various speculative stocks were having somewhat similar advances to those witnessed recently. These stocks suffered sharp price declines in the Spring of 1955 without unduly disturbing the general market which continued to advance until April, 1956 and then went through a lengthy top- ping out period for over a year. Markets never exactly repeat themselves, but applying the 1953-1956 patt,ern to the present situation would around 770 to be reached in a year or so, probably followed by a topping 0 t or ib't1tional period similar to 1956-1957. The sequel will probably e g ea e n any witnessed since 1937. This is not as ominous as it sounds. e ve n t y had a severe de- cline in recent years. The greatest s t decline in 1946. The 1957 decline -was 20, but it probably halt at around the 525 level a er time-.-.-Any decline wou-ld eft riple tops of 1956 and 1957. If the average did reach 770, a to about 30, or a bit greater than the 1946-1949 bear rna et All of this is of a e ecture, but the present technical pattern lends some credence to med above. At the moment, the only issues that have built up vulnerable t hn c tterns are some (but not all) of the glamour stocks that have had steep price a ces and are sellmg at extremely high price-tirnes-earnings ratios. There are s 1 a considerable number of issues that have sound technical pat- terns and indicate higher levels over the intermediate term. FANSTEEL METALLURGICAL (60) offers interesting potentials. This leading domestic processor of rare metals such as tantalum and columbium also produces tungsten and molybdenum. Tantalum capacitors represent the fastest growing section of the company's products. Leading markets for the company's products are electronics, automobiles, metal working, electric power, aircraft and atomic energy. The stock sold at a 1957 high of 64 and reacted to 42 later m 1957. It recently equalled its 1957 high of 64 and has reacted to the 60 level. Ability to reach new h1gh territory would be a constructive technical indicatlon. aOLIVER CORP. (19) is low-priced issue with an in- teresting technical p-atte- rn. The stock has recently broken out on the upside of the 8-18 area in which it had held since 1945. This should have considerable technical significance. This company has had a spotty earnings record, but it had a book value of 33.38 as of October 31st, 1958 and could be of interest to another company for merger or purchase of assets. Both issues are being added to my recommended list. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. mnrkellctter 15 not, nnd under no cIrcumstances is to be contl'ucd as, un offer to sell or n soitcltahon to buy any securities referred to herem The mformation con till ned herem IR not gnnrllnt('ed to accuracy or compictenl!!!s and the furmshlnj;! thereof IS not, and under no circumst.&nees is to bc construed as, a representa- tion hy '''alston & Co, Inc. All e).preSSlOns or OpmlOn arc subJQct to chnnge Without notIce Walston & Co, Inc and Officers, Dlrectors, Stockholder'! and Fmpjoyecs thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mtcrest m the ;ecUTltJes mentIOned herein ThiS markel Jetter IS mtended and presented merely as II general, mformal commentary on day to clay market news and not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal mformatJon nth respect to any SeCUTltlcs referred to herem WIll be fUI nlshed tlllOn r e q u e s t ' \\ N 30 . – – -, ……….

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 10, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 10, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 10, 1959
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— — W—–a–l-s-tIoncn—&–C—o. Members New York Stock Exchange Opy NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 10, 1959 Market activity quieted down considerably during the past week which is all to the good at this stage of the technical pattern. The industnal average came within shoot- ing distance of the mid-March high of 618.80 at Monday's mtra-day high of 614.39, and then reacted to 602.12 on Thursday. Friday's close was 605.97. The rails, at the week' intra-day high of 163.96, were still quite a distance away from the January high of 168.27 but held quite firmly while the industrials were sellmg off in mid-week. From a near- term point of view, the important points to watch on the upside are 618.80 on the indus- trials and J68. 2J on the ralls. The advance. potential on the industrials, in the event of a ..an upside penetration, is-not clear-and probably-more cons'olidalioh-is needed-before -.,..– sizable advance is indicated. The rails, however, have formed enough of a potential base in the past three months to indicate, technically, an advance to the 175-180 level in the event of an upside penetration. On the downside, the important points are, of course, the Aprlilst lows of 599.21 and 157.20, A downside breakthrough of these points would give a technical indication of a decline to about 580 in the mdustrials and about 148 in the rails. There are, as yet, no valid technical signs of longer-term deterioration in the market pattern. The indications are still for a selective advance for the balance of the year interrupted occasionally by technical corrections. The oils have been one of the poorer acting groups since July. The re are several oils on my recommended list and I have been premature in recommending their purchase, but there is no change in my opinion that this group will have a worthwhile upward move before the general market advance is completed, Actually, the oil group can be broken down into three broad classifications, namely, domestic companles, international companies and Canadian 011 and gas near-term, the do'mestic companies have the best technical Mo 0 ar selling clos e to all-time highs and are close to upside er at have been form!ng since , Most the d0r'eStic oils have ential of about 300/0 The mternahonal are close to thelr .- 1957-1958 lows and, from a nearby change in trend. How d91 ,there is no indication of a rnational olls have held in trading areas for almost a year and a potential bases much greater than those formed by the ic D h, for example, is sellmg at 44 and has an upside potential 1000/0, for the longer-term, Technically, down- side risk seems re . ly s also. The 40-37 area should be a good support zone. The only question is e mmg and that should not particularly concern the followers of this letter who ar ncerned with capital gains over a period of six months or longer and not in short-term swings. It lS interesting to note in the March 31 st report of the Lazard Fund, Inc., that this astutely managed investment fund added to then holdings of Gulf Oil, Royal Dutch and Texas Company in the first quarter, and that Rcyal Dutch is their second largest holding of their entire common stock portfolio and Gulf Oil is the fourth largest. The other group, Canadlan oil and gas stocks, have also performed poorly marketwise. However, they also have formed wide potential bases with upside poten- tials of 1000/0 m some cases. Here again it appears to be a question of timing and more patience may be required before a reversal of trend. On my recommended list are GETTY OIL GULF OIL (112 3/4) ROYAL DUTCH 45) and SHELL TRANSPORT (19 3/4) in the international oils, and HOME OIL (18 1/4) and PACIFIC PETROLEUM (15 1/4) in the Canadian group. Among the domestic oils, PNDERSON PRICHP.RD (35 3/4), P-TLPNTIC REFINING (50), CONTINENTAL OIL (63), OHIO OIL (40 5/8), PURE OIL (46 3/4), SKELLY OIL (71 7/8), STANDARD OIL OF OHIO (61 1/4), and UNION OIL OF CALIFORNIA (46 7/8) have attractive technical patterns. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 1 hIS market letter IS not. Rnd under no Clrcumstanc(! IS to be construed us, an offer to sell or u solicitation to buy any securlttes referred to herem The infOrmation conttllned herem 1'1 not guaranteed IlS to accuracy or completeness and the furOlshmg thereof 15 not. and under no Circumstances 15 to be construed IlS, II. representa- tIOn by Walston & Co. Ine All '….presslOnll of oPinIOn are subJect to change ,Ithout notice Walston & Co, Inc. Ilnd Officers. Directors, Stockholders and thereof, purchnse, sell Ilnd may have an Interest lTI the Sf!eUrJtJes mentIoned herelO. This market letter IS mtended nnd presented m(!reiy as n general. mformnJ commentary on dny to dllY market news nnd not IlS 0. complete Addltlonnlmformntlon With respect to any seeurlties referred to herem v.ill be f\1I nlshed upon r e q u e s t . ' \\;- 30l

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 17, 1959
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FILE COpy h Walston &Co. Inc—- Members New yo,'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABEll'S MARKET LETTER April 17, 1959 Both the Dow-Jones Industrials and Rails reached new high territory for the year Thursday and extended the advance on Friday. The lindustrials passed the March high of 618.80 to attain an intra-day peak of 626.66 on Friday. The achievement of the Ralls wa probably more noteworthy because they pushed through the high of 168.27 that had held since mid-January. Friday's high was 170.14. The high on the Industrials is a new all- time high. The Rails are still below their 1956 high of 182.54 by about 50/0. The Indus- trials, on the other hand, are almost 200/0 above their 1956 high of 524.37. Just how high the market can carryon this phase of the advance appears to be Clearer–on the-Rails-tnan'on 'the Industrials. d past'tIlree-m-onths on the Rail average suggests a potential of 175-180, as compared with Friday's close of 168.92. The technical pattern of the Industrial average indicates the possibility of an advance to the 635-650 level, as compared with Friday's close of 624.06. After these objectives are achieved, normal technical procedure would call for another consolidating or resting period in order to form a new pattern. I am still of the opinion that the Indus- trial average will eventually reach the 750-800 area before the advance from October, 1957 low is completed. However, I also believe that this is the third and final phase of the tremendous advance that started in 1949. Comparing these three phases shows Low 160.62 254.36 416.15 Date 6/14/49 C//15/56 10/22/57 High 295.06 524.37 626.66 Date 1/5/53 4/9/56 4/17/59 No. of Months 42 31 18 Advance 84 106 53 ; To Date. So far, the present upswing is moderate as co a the two previous' advances since 1949. It is also moderate as h av e of the fourteen major bull market upswings that have taken place average of these four- teen bullmarets ti,!Ile rtynron and of 1110/0 as compared to eighteen Percentages are import or resent advance. t 1 Suppose the Industrial average ad- vances to 800 by 1960 or points above the present level. Sounds like a lot. Yet it is on e ent level. The investor who bought at the 1949 lows has al d d e advance of 3440/0. From these figures it would appear that the ne r0 just discovered that the stock market has been going up is getting in awfu lat e has missed most of the advance and for a possible gain of 280/0 is taking the r' of the most dangerous part of the market. As readers of this letter know, my specific stock recommendations are de- signed for the individual who is interested in long-term capital gains for a holding period of six months or longer. My advice is not for the short term trader trying to guess the short-term swings of a few pOints. For this reason, the stocks recommended usually have, in my opinion, an upside potential of at least 500/0 or more over a period of six months or longer. ThEse recommendations are based both on technical and fundamental factors. Obvio'.!ly, these potentials are not always achleved, but there are several stocks m my recommended list that are approaching their own individual upside poten- tials. These stocks still indicate somewhat higher levels, but appear to have already witnessed a good portion of their indicated advance. FAlHILY FINANCE (32 5/8) was originally recommended-at 22 and has reached a high of 35. It has'an upside potential of 43 and, for the patient investor desiring a 4.8 yield, it can be held, but other issues in my recommended list probably offer better appreciation prospects over the next 6 months GIMBEL BROS.(45 1/2) entered my recommended list at 27. It has/an upside potential of 45-55 and has reached a high of 47 1/8. NATIONAL GYPSUM (68 3 8) was originally recommended at 42 and has an upside objective on my technical work of 75-85. Stock clos d at its high for the year on Friday at 68 3/8. All three of these stocks can be held until they reach their potential, or switched into other issues in my recommended list such as MONSANTO CHEMICAL (48),NATIONAL DISTILLERS (33 1/2),ROYAL DUTCH (463/8) or lINGER MFG.(49 3/8). All of these lssues indlcate higher levels over the mtermediate term. I am also adding FEDDERS CORP. (19 1/8)to my low-priced list. A complete write-up will follow. EDMUND W. TABELL WThIS market letter 15 not. and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an offer uGQaJMCitles referred to herein The Inform(l.llOn C'nntained herein I'; not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnishIng thereof IS not. nnd under no Clfcumstancl!S IS to be construed as, a representa- hon by 'alston & Co. Inc All e'(presslOns of OpInion arc subject to change \Hthout not1CC Walston & Co. Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and IIlrormaJ thereof, purchase, commentary on day stoelldaayndmmarakyethnavewe sananmd terest m not as a the securltJcs mentlOned herein ThIS market letter lS mtended complete analYllls Additional mformatJon With respect to any and presented merei)i- ns a general, secuntH!S referred to herem WIll be fllrmshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\ N 301 ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 24, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 24, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - April 24, 1959
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Walston &Co. Inc Members New YOk Stock Exchange FILE QPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 24, 1959 The F. R. B. Index of production, and most other business indices, reached their lows just about a year ago and began to move upward. This advance slowly gained mo- mentum over the months,and what started out to be a recovery phase has now blossomed into a new boom. Present indications are that this boom wi) 1 continue both in terms of time and volume. Earnings for the first quarter are sharply above those of a year ago,and the improvement should continue into the se cond quarter. To the novice inve stor, all of this presumably means that the stock market will continue to move ahead at the same rate as the business pattern improves. This assumption may not necessarily be correct. The stock market usually acts as a barometer rather than a thermometer. It must be remembered that the stock market ignored the dismal earnings reports of a year ago and started to advance three to six months before business reached its low. This is not an unusual phenomena, even though it may appear unusual to the new investor. If past technical action means anything, the stock market will probably reach its high before the indices of business reach their highs. Neither of these highs appear imminent at the mom ent. I believe that the present advancing phase in the stock market that started in Octo- ber – December 1957 at around the 420 level in the Dow-Jones Industrials will continue into 1960-1961 and will reach a level around 800–give or take 5 in either direction. However, we have probably completed the initial part of the upswing wherein the market advances in more or less straight-line with only moderate, short-lived technical declines. The swings from now on could be wider. In the advance from Oct- ober, 1953 to April, 1956, the advance from October, was of the straight-line variety from 255 to 425. After that, h th 'tiJkk verages con- tinued to advance, the general market became T ctual high in the averages was reached at 524 a year later in 1956, wide swings up and down.before-the I wed c' , in- nother year late.. 1957. -of se.ver,,a,.,.l 1 As noted in these letters et is approaching the equiva- ent of March 1955. The ing their tops, just as they . and individual issues may be reacha\155 in the 1953-1956 rise. While at the moment, advances n u declines, we are pro.bably apprcaching the stage (like 1956 of ) when just as many stocks decline as advance,de- spite the fact that era ay continue to rise. Relative stren h . n -the price action of each individual issue as compared to the price action o.f t eneral market- is often helpful as a clue to. future price action. INTERNATIONAL MINERALS & CHEMICAL (32 1/8), which has probably been the most disappointing issue on my recommended list, has at last begun to show signs of impro.vin relative strength. One reason fo.r this improving action is the favorable earnings report for the first quarter. Earnings were reported at 83 for the three months ended March 31st as compared to 33 in the 1958 quarter. This stock has been building up a substan- tially potential base area in the 26-33 range since late 1955. Ability to. relch 34 would have favo.rable technical Significance. NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING (42) suffered some selling last week because of a rather pessimistic report in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal on the U. S. Shipbuilding industry. This article points out the current slowdown in the replacement pro.gram due to. a depressed world shipping market. These conditions, in my opinion, are temporaryand in the meantime the present backlog assures a sat- isfactory rate of operation for so.me time. Earnings for 1959 sho.uld be above the 4.19 reported for 1958 and the 2.00 dividend paid in 195' (35 quarterly 60 extra) yields 4.7 at present price level. Stock should be bought on pref'ent weakness. NOR THWESr,. AIRLINES (405/8) declined to. 39 1/4 during the past week fro.m a recent high of 46 1/8, and also should be bo.ught during periods of market correction. Earnings pro.jections for 1959 still indicate an earnings probability of 5.00 a share plus,for the year. EWT/at EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Th! letter I'; not and under no Circumstances 19 to be construed as, an offer to lIell or a soliCitatIOn to buy an) SCCUrlt1(,'S referred to herein The information .'ontnm(l1 herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or and the furnlshmg thereof '1 not. nna under no Circumstances IS to be constl ued ns, n rellrC'Icntn- tlon 1\). Vlnhton & Co, Inc All expreSSIOns of opinIon are subc('t to WIthout notwc WlIlston & Co, Inc, and OffIcer'!, Dlteetor!;, Stockholders find thereof, purchfl!;C', sell nnd mlly have lin intllrest 10 the !;CCUrltIes mentIOned herem Thl'! mllrkct f'Lter IS mtended nnd presented merely as a general, 1Oformul commentary on day to day market ne\\!! and not as a complete analySIS AddItIonal mformatlOn WIth respect to Ilny referred to herem WIll he fUI nlshed upon r e q u e s t ' OX 30 /

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