Viewing Month: February 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 06, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 06, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 06, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

– ——– – – – – FILE COPY &-Walston Co. Inc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN fRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 6,1959 The Dow-Jones Industrial average broke below the January 29th low of 584.71 to reach an intra-day low of 580.54 on Friday. This technical action, combined with a breaking of the November-January uptrend line, indicates a reversal of trend and decline to lower levels in the general market. As indicated in recent letters, I believe the 570- 560 level in the industrials will furnish very strong support. A full normal technical correction of 33 1/3 to 40 of the fifteen-month advance of 180 points from the October, 1957 low of 420 to the January 1959 high of 600 would bring the average down to the 540525 area. It will be noted that 525 is the level of triple top of the 1953-1957 advance. A 'high of approximately5-25 was-reached- twrc-e-in 1956 antI' ag-aiil-inJline;-195 7-This, te-ch nically, would be a very strong support level. However, unless very unexpected news events should change the picture, a reaction to that level does not appear probable. The averages have not yet built a distributional pattern of sufficient size to indicate an important decline and only a few over-exploited issues have built up top patterns. Most individual stocks indicate the probability of only a relatively mild decline. Believe further weakness should be used to add to holdings in selected issues with favorable long term fundamental and technical patterns. Reprinted below is my recommended list with the exception of one stock which is still a prospectus issue. The issues recommended are for long term holding of six months or longer. Would add Cluett Peabody (52) if available in the 50-47 range, and Northrop Corp. (33) if available in the 33-31 range. A separate list of low-prices specu lative issues is also included Recommended Current Price Price iW\\\ A'n ce Current Price American Can Butler Bros, Flintkote Getty Oil Gimbel Gulf Oil Heinz, H.J. Hercules Powder Hoffman Electronic Hooker Chemical Intern'l Minerals 42 48 &B39 39 ical 46 5'R0! .'WPNi;'wport News Ship. 6 \ – Pan Amer. -World Air 2fr/sY\, 120 Pennsalt Chemical Philip Morris 6 69 Royal Dutch 52 Shell Transport 2-21 39 Singer Mfg. 35 37 Wilson & Co. 29 29 40 38 47 15 71 48 48 22 48 15 52 -41 46 28 76 63 47 21 49 33 LOW-PRICED STOCKS Recommended Price Current Price Recommended Curren Price Price Avco Chemway Curtis Publishing Decca Records Divco-Wayne Fruehauf Trailer -9 15 i8 17 17 12 12 — 14 18 26 21 Hotel Corp. National Can Pacific Petroleum Publicker Rayonier United Industrial 7 14 18 11 19 13 — 7 – 18 14 21 17 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thlij marhcL letter is not, and under no circumstances IS to be conRtrucd as, an offer to sell or n solICitatiOn to buy any securaties referred to herem The informatlOn I'ontll.lncd herein 1' not guaranteed flF! to accuraey or completeness and the furnlShmlt thereof IS not, and under no Clrcumstunccs IS to be construed as, a 11011 h) \Vnlstoll & Co. Inc. All expressions of op1Own are subJect to ehnngc Without notice & Co. Inc, and OffICCrs, Dtreetors, Stockholders and ElIlplyccs thereof, pUlchnle. sell anrl may have an mterest 10 the secUrities mentIoned herem ThIS market letter IS Intended and presented merely aq a lI'1formnl ('ornmcntnry on day to day market news not as a complete annlysls Addltlonnl mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herem furlllshcd npon request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 13, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 13, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 13, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

FILE COpy Wdlston &Co. —-Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 13, 1959 On below average volume, the Dow-Jones Industrials dropped 7.87 pOints on Tuesday to reach a new intra-day low of the year at 571. 73. This decline was entirely retraced on Wednesday when the average advanced 8.19 pOints. Since then, the Indus- trials have traded in the lower part of the 600-580 range with volume at relatively low levels. Volume on Thursday at 2,630,000 shares, was the lowest since September 5th. The averages are now wedged between an overhead supply of a month's duration in the 580-600 level and a downside support level of about equal importance at 570-555. With a good portion of the fourth quarter earnings reports published, it may require -some outSicfe news-iirfluence -to- push-the -general markefa'oQve-tK-e'overheadsupply'Or-.-',..—- below the downside support before late March or early April. I envision a consolidating or trading area for the next month or so, with individual issues moving in their own price pattern. If no untoward news developl'i, I would expect that the favorable com- parisons of the 1959 first quarter earnings with the 1958 first quarter should result in new highs for the averages in April. Attention might be drawn to my letter of January 16th in which we stressed the importance of the December low and subsequent price action for the first four months of the next year. Since 1935, if the December low was not broken by April,. it was not broken for the balance of the year. Our compilations of January 16th were in terms of Standard & Poor's 425-Industrial Stock Index which reached an intra-day December low of 55.58 on December 3rd. In terms of the Dow-Jones Industrials, the December intra- day low was reached on December 8th at 553.70. Thus the important low points to watch for the first four months are 55.58 and 553.70. If these lows are not brQken by the end of April, experience of the last twenty-four wi1l!e broken for the balance of the year. Friday's close was 57 '0Ydand 587.97on the Dow-Jones Industrials. on Ii Poor Index The January 16th compilations also the' esting fact that in twelve -out ca-ses, if-a-hi-gh ber…lew-was -r.ea-ched early in the year,the market nce of the year. Thus, if a new high of about 61.00 on Index and about 610.00 on the Dow- Jones Industrials are reache 'n t or so, the odds would favor an up- side market for the e e. intra-day highs for so far in 1959 are 60.27 on the S & P Ind 0 ow-Jones Industrials. From a te 1 i int, the market does not show any important indica- tions )f long term to individual issues have built up potential tops of only rela- tiVE minor import These tops could, of course, broaden but there is no imme- diate indication of such a development. The only issues with vulnerable patterns are those issues that have had extremely sharp price advances and are in need of technical correction. For the general market to show signs of a vulnerable condition would re- quire a longer period of time. Important top patterns usually take six months or longer to form. Some groups that have moved ahead sharply since the start of the advance in October, 1957 have reached upside objectives and appear in need of at least a consoli- dating area. Such a classification would include drugs, food chains, food products and, in some cases, utilities, and also some of the electronic issues and specialties that howe risen shlrply in a short period of time. On the other hand, there are still a great many groups that are a considerable distance away from their upside potentials. A partial list of such groups include airlines, building supplies, chemicals, coppers, meat packing, oils (domestic), paper, railroads, rubber, soft drinks and textiles. Other groups could join this list after some minor consolidation or decline. Some other groups have shown relatively poor immediate action but appear to be forming sizc.ble base patterns for the longer term. This may require more time and moderately lower price levels. Aluminums and international oils are in this classification. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. Thl'l market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or n sohCltatlOn to buy any securities referred to herein The informatIOn contamed herem 15 not guaranteed no; to nccuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof lS not, and under no clrcumstnnces is to be construed us, a representa- hon by ,Valston & Co, Jnc. All expressions of opinion arc subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, nnd Officers, Directors, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, seJl and may huve an intE!rcst 1n the mentIOned herein ThiS market letter 1S Ifltcnded nnd presented merely a'J a general, mformal commentary on day to day mnrket ne….'S and not os a complete anolYSI'J Ad,htinnal IflformatlOn With re'Jpect to IIny securities referred to herem Will be furmshed upon r e q u e s t ' 30l

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 20, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

W—a-l-sItnocn.-&-C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange fiLE COPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 20, 1959 In recent issues this letter has commented on the oil stocks, stressing the fact that they appeared to offer sound investment value around current levels. Since that time, mar ket action has been somewhat desultory. Briefly, the current picture is as follows. International oils, under considerable pressure due to political news and adverse ma – keting developments, have not destroyed their favorable technical patterns. Indeed, they continue to build up bases which mdlcate substantial upside potentials over the longer ter Although over the nearer term action may be slow, they should be bought on weakness by long term investors. For most of the domestic oils, the immediate potential is consider- ably brighter and these could show better market action than the internationals over the next few months. However, longer term possibilities are not a, s dynamic. A third segmen of the group is the Canadian industry, which will be reviewed briefly below. Based on information currently available, it seems that the greatest immediate poten tial for Canadian oil companies lies in natural gas. Gas is, indeed, one of the fastest growing energy sources. It now accounts for 27 of the energy consumed in the United States, vs. less than 17 ten years ago. At the end of 1958, proven reserves of natural gas in Canada were about 28.5 trillion cubic feet. potential reserves have been placed at 308 trillion cubic feet vs. known U. S. reserves of around 230 trillion. However, lack of transmission facilities has prevented Canadian gas from being readily marketed. Indeed, producers have been forced to flare, or burn up, a large amount of the gas produced as a by-product of oil drilling. There is now evidence that this unhappy situation may be coming to an end. Late last year the Trans-Canada pipeline, the world's largest natural gas line, was completed fro the Alberta fields to Montreal, thus opening up eastern Alber a gas. Much greater potentials lie in the eventual of n ga to the western and mid-western United States. Currently, a eli e on both sides of the border is delaying the realization of ort ,eventually, when regula- tory difficulties are resolved, it has been e ed'ttrat over a billion cubic feet per day could be exported from clude the following. (1) A prOcit'eS' via Westcoast Transmission d 1 i !California ( i io w markets. Proposals for export inin exported from the Peace River area Pipeline to Washington, Oregon and y Tennessee Gas Transmission to serve the mid-west area v' c0 rans-Canada pipeline. (3) A planned 1,300-mile transmission line en r lberta to San Francisco to be built by Pacific Gas & Electric. Although i is likely that any of these proposals will be approved imme- diately, it would see at Canadian gas must eventually find its natural U. S. market. Meanwhile, the oil picture, while not immediately exciting, offers a bright long- range future. The major prospect here is a projected oil pipeline running to Montreal which is now importing some 400,000 barrels of crude oil and products per day. In sum- mary, then, it would seem that the Canadian oil industry, long stifled by lack of outlets for its products, is now entering the very beginning of an era in which extensive markets will be opened up. Under this stimulus, production, reserves, and earnings could expe- rience remarkable growth. From a technical point of view, many Canadian oil issues have built up substantial bases which could indicate sizable upside potentials. Two Canadian issues, both traded on the American Stock Exchange, appear favor- ably situated. PACIFIC PETROLEUM (17) has been on our recommended list for some time. The company holds an interest in almost 17 million gross acres, many un- developed, largely in the Peace River area. Through a 27 holding of Westcoast Trans- mission Co. Ltd., it is in a position to participate in gas distribution as well as product- ion, Proven gas r;eserves are about a half-trillion cubic feet. . HOME OIL, LIMITED, (B stock price 20) also has some half-trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, plus substantial proven oil reserves. Extensive oil development is taking place on its promising Swan Hill fields in Alberta. Two classes of stock are traded, t'he A stock, which has a dividend prefererce and the B stock, which otherwise is co-equal. Both are recommended for purchase and are being added to our recommended list. EDMUND W. TABELL ,,'lihtllr'l!lrj(e1Jl'I1.ter IS not, and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to ,eferred to herem The mformatlOn l1rMVtaUV!aLJlilkkh IS not Itunrnntced as to accuracy or completeness nnd the furnlshmg thereof is not. and under no cU'cumst/lncco; is to be construed as, a representa- tIOn by Wnlston & Co., Inc All c'lpreSSlOns of opmlOn are subJect to change '.I.ithout notJce Walston & Co, Inc. and Officers, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, selland may have an mterest III the seeuntJes mentlOncd herem ThIS market letter IS llltended and presented merely as a genera, mrormal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformation With respect to nny securities referred to herem Will be furmshcd upon r e q u e s t ' \\ N 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 27, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 27, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 27, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. —–lnc. —– Members New York Stuck Exchange fit NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 27, 1959 The market forged into new high ground this week with the Dow-Jones Industrial average reaching a peak of 606.53 on Friday. As mentioned before, upside potential for the average appears to be 625 for the shorter term. Beyond this, it will be necessary to watch future price developments in order to determine the direction of the next near-ter trend. Regardless of the action of the market, however, individual stock selection will be most important. In this connection, the airline group appears to offer a good deal of upside attract ion. In most cases, financing arrangements for the jet age have been completed and the majorityof .. t. thea,d.vent oLj ets. a-maj or stimului3 .to .aircarriel' revenues. Pan American World Airways (28) has been on our recommended list for som time. NORTHWEST AIRLmES, mc., which is reviewed below, is being added to our list and its purchase is recommended for capital appreciation. NORTHWEST AIRLmES,mC. Current Price CCuurrrreenntt YDiievliddend 38 2.01.80 Northwest Airlines is both a domesti and international air route system servi g OEaprenreatdinpgerReSvheanrue-e1-1995588 310 918,283,000 26 cIties in 11 states, 2 cities in Canada Alaska, Hawaii, and 5 major cities in th Orient. Domestic routes connect Minnea Funded Debt 62,500,000 pOlis-St. Paul; Chicago,Detroit and Mil- 51/4 Cum.Cv.pfd.(25 par) 457,873 shs.(l) waukee with Seattle-Tacoma and Portlan Common Stock 1,373,620 shs. in the York and Wash Market Range 1959-58 39 1/4 – 10 1/8 0e eaboard. Recently (1) – Each share convertible into 96/100ths share common. a arded routes to Atla t nts via Chicago. Three in routes are operated, running -es are 'aerived from. thedomestic Perhaps mo t strl'n Northwest picture is its current statis- tical cheapness com a major domestic trunk lines. Despite the fact that its price has ris less than six months, it is still cheaper on an earn ings basis than mo he 0 air carriers, and sells at less than ten times 1958 earn ings. The company l' ce estimated 1958 per-share results at 3.98, probably includin some 60 capital gaO rom sale of equipment. This contrasts with 1957 earnings of 3.5 of which 2.18 was capital gains. Thus operating revenues for the year were up some 150 0 Further growth is expected for 1959. The recent award of the Florida route elimi nates much of the seasonal fluctuation that heretofo re characterized the company. Until this year, a large deficit was perennially shown in the March quarter. It is expected that Florida operations will put the company in the black for the first quarter of 1959, thus ind'- cating earnings for the twelve months,to end March 31, 1959 in the 4.50-5.00 range.Th , the company is in an admirable position to step into the new era of jet transport. The company's jet fleet will be five Douglas DC-8s, the first to be delivered in 19 0 This aircraft will be used on transcontinental and trans-Pacific routes. Intermediate haul will be served by ten Lockheed Electras which will be delivered later this year. Both Loc heed and Douglas have agreed to accept piston-engined craft now owned .by Northwest as trade-ins. Financing for-the new aircraft has already been accomplished. Some 40 milli n of 6 Notes were placed privately. 1 rrillicn was raised from the sale of a 5 1/40/. convertible preferred issue. Each shar of preferred is convertible into 96/100ths share of common. This will result in considerable dilution, but no immediate conversion is ex- pected to take place since the preferred dividend of 1.31 is currently larger than the 0. paid on the common. Meanwhile, growth in population of the cities served, plus economi s afforded by modern aircraft, should continue to spur earnings growth. Another stimulus could be possible award of a New York-San Francisco route now pending before the CAB. From a technical point of view, the stock has an upside obj ective of 65 over the Ion term followed by possible higher levels. Both the common and the convertible preferred, whih provides a more generous yield but sells at a slight premium over conversion A.c t m1Iq!tcr not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed llS, an off i'l not guaranteed as to nccurncy or completeness and the furnlshl M il.l leferrcd to hClein The mformatlOn CCS IS to be construed as, u represent.n- lion y Wnloton & Co. hll' All expreSSlonll of OplTIlOn arc subject to chunge WIthout. notice & Co, 1nc, OfTlcers, Stockholders and thereof, pU1('hase. sell nnd may have nn mterest in the secuntie'1 mentIOned herem ThIS market letter lR Illtended nnd presented mcrely fLS a gcneral mformnl commentary on day to dny market neWS and not a'l n complete analYSIS AdrhtlOnal mformatton WIth respect to any securitIes referred to herem WIll be furTIlshed upon r e q u e s t , ' \\';\ 30l

Download PDF