Viewing Month: December 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 04, 1959
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\ Walston &Co. In.c, M embel's New YOl'k Stock Exchange FILE NEW YORK SAN FRANCESCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 4,1959 Action of the market averages over the past two weeks must be considered constru t e. On November 20th, this letter noted an uptrend channel that has prevailed in the Dow-JonE s Industrials in the past three months. This uptrend channel continued with the ability of th average to reach a new intra-day high of 668.70 on December 1st. The average has now pushed into the heavy overhead supply which exists in the 655-665 area, and the upside indication continues to be 705-710. Some strength was also noted in the Rail average during the past week. As previou I noted, the Rails had a downside objective of 143, and an intra-day low of 145.19 was on November 25th.' Since ,then, theo averages moved ahead, reaching a high 88 on Friday. Although the uptrend mayor may not continue, selected rail purchases appear to carry a minimum of downside risk at the present time. GREAT WESTERN SUGAR Price Current Dividend Current Yield 29 1. 70 5. 9 7 Cum. Pfd. Stock Common Stock Sales – 1959-60 (El Sales – 1958-59 150,000 shs. 1,800,000 shs. 110,000,000 107,380,000 Earn. Per Sh.1959-60 (E) 3.25 Earn. Per Sh.1958-59 3.13 Mkt.Range 1959-1955 317/8 – 191/4 seem to be such a stock. Great Western i -, ing for 'more than 3'quarter-of the In the advanced stages of a bull marke astronomical price / earnings ratios, and miniscule yields become the order of the day. Thus an equity with a p / e ratio of unde 10 and a yield close to 6 is somewhat of a rarity. When this stock, in addition, is of sound investment quality, has an assurec steady growth potential and, in addition, possesses as attraction near-term incre, s in eco doubly worthy of at Western Sugar would eadHig'l. beet sugar producer, accoun — been paid smce 1933, and h e of the past three years. The current 1. 70 rate a 5 n 6 based on recent prices. Balance sheet position is stro VI ,and only a small preferred issue ranking ahead of the common. In order to fu y u stand Great Western it is necessary to understand that sugar is a closely-regula ommodity with tariffs set up to protect the U. S. market, imports closely regulated and marketing quotas divided among various producers. The Sugar Act of 1948,as amended, divides up the U.S. sugar market between domestic beet producers, domestic cane producers, Hawaiian producers, and sugar imported from Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Cuba. The provisions of the Act are extremely complicated but under the quota system as it is currently set up, U. S. producers should enjoy a growing share of a growing U. S. market. This should afford Great Western and the other domestic beet producers opportunity to increase sales at a steady rate over a period of time. Since capacity is ample, capital expenditures can be devoted to modernization of existing plant, thus im- proving profit margins. It lS, therefore, quite possible that net will increase at a great- er rate than sales in the years-ahead. In addition to its sound investment base, Great Western Sugar affords a measure of speculative attraction based on the current uncertainty in Cuba. Under the Sugar Act referred to above, over one-third of sugar consumed in the U. S. is produced in Cuba. Were Cuba's ability to deliver sugar to be impaired, either by nationalization of sugar lands, by refusal of growers to plant crops, or a change in U. S. policy, the resultant sugar deficiency would have to be made up by other sources. A major share of this deficiency would undoubtedly have to be filled by the U. S. beet sugar industry. Under such clrcumstances, the rise in Great Western Sugar's earnings could be 'quite SUbstantial. From a technical point of Vlew, the stock has an upside potential considerably abov present prices. The projection calls for an intermediate term 40 followed by a longer term objective of 55. Strong support is provided at 29-25. The stock is being added to StU I eesfflDiefle1eEllie1l rsp fHiPeRese is iRVQl!!r5J;Q.9Rt aQQQllptS seekips good income and is to be construed as, an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy tb1\-b\rDed–ltt!relrHs tIOn by Walston & Co, Inc. All expressions of or completeness Ilnd opInion Ilre sllbJect the to fcuhramngsehm,giththoeurEtJriffld1r\f1c\i.o!u;OWJa(!tls't,rMftie&'\nitieo., purchnse, sell and mlly hMe lin mterest m the securItIes mentlOned on day to day mnrkct neWEl and not liS II complete analYSIS flirniRhcd upon r e q u e s t ' , referred to herem. The mformatlOn Is.to be construed as, a representalti'ters, Directors, Stockholders and presented merely as n general, referred to herein will be WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 11, 1959
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\ fiLE COpy Walston &Co. – – – – – Inc – – – Mem bers New Y O1'k Stock Exciw.nge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 11, 1959 Action of both the Industrials and Rails continues constructive, despite profit- taking which crept into the market on Friday. As previously noted, the upside objective on the Dow-Jones Industrials is 705 -710 and the Rails appear to be slowly basing out. FERRO CORPORATION, INC. Current Price Current Dividend ,– 44 1. 60 3. – In almost any area of the United States, newly constructed office and industriaCouildirigs dot-the urban ana rural Long Term Debt Common Stock 5,962,641 748,627 shs. scenes. To any observer of this con- struction, the growing use of brightly colored porcelain enamel -pm !s, both Sales – 1959-E 63,000,000 as curtain walls and interior decoration Sales – 1958 56,380,000 must be apparent. Porcelain also con- Earn. per share 1959-E 4.30 – 4.50 Earn. per share 1958 2.76 tinues to be used in the home, not only as part of the house itself, but also as a coating for appliances. All porcelain, Market Range 1959-1951 45 5/8 – 16 wherever used, has one thing in common- the raw material used in coating the metal base. This material is called frit, and the country's largest producer of enamel frit is Ferro Corporation, Inc. Ferro produces not only porcelain frit itself, but also offers an engineering ser- vice selling the furnaces and various machines used in It is also the seller of non-organic pigments used to color 0 ti IWhes products are sold both in this country and abroad, with about coming from wholly-owned foreign subsidiaries. 1\ V;) t e c any's total sales – and relateci-products-are- – howeve-r. It is an important producer of fibre, a 0 ct .ch is now reaping record sales production, and, in addition, business and other engineering lines. With the gro i F ro s products, sales and earnings have expanded sharply in 1959. ae y reported 3.52 earned per common share for the first nine months 9 . . 5 for the same period in 1958. For the full year 1959 an considerably better than 3 million after taxes, roughly in the range of 4.30 t .50 per common share. This is expected to be achieved on sales of some 63 million indicating a pre-tax profit of close to, or better than 100/0 of sales, Significantly, this will be the best such margin in Ferro's recent history. For 1960 and beyond, the outlook is even more impressive. Sales should expand sharply as industrial construction continues to grow. Appliance companies, one of Ferro' major categories of customers, should have a banner year in 1960. Ferro's capital goods divisions, which contributed little or nothing to profits in 1959, should be on a profitable basis as capital spending increases. Thus, per share earnings for 1960 could well reach the 5.50 level. Over the long term, the growth in the use of porcelain enamel should continue. Ferro's entrenched position in Europe places it in a favorable position .in repectto sales in the European common market.Fibre gluss continues in short supply, and continued expansion of this product is foreseen. In the research field, Ferro has been working for a number of years on lowering temperatures required to bake enamel. This research is tremendously important since as this temperature is lowered, new material such as narrow gauge steel, and aluminum can be porcelainized thus widening tremendously Ferro's potential market. Despite the favorable near term and long term outlook, current prices mark Ferro at only ten times estimated 1959 earnings and eight times possible 1960 The recently raised 1.60 dividend provides a 3.6 yield and could be further liberalized. From a technical point of view, the stock has a long term upside objective of 73 with strong support at 38-35 just under current levels. It is being added to our recom- mended list for purchase in capital gains accounts. n r BBfvRJUB W.'PyrDELLTA under4.lld M-.lRflMnnces IS to be construed aB, an offer to sell or a Sc9t1)1t11f1.tronc.tfl'lltlOl.llllY to herein The mformnlion It!,funVrU''l1ltlIil.\I;I.t fIf or oompJeteneslI and the thereof I nN he' eonstruM a9 n repr(!Senta opinion are to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Offlcerll, Directors. Sto'ckholders and C'l'S thereof. purchase. sell and may ha,e an Interest m the securities mentlOTIe herem This market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general. lri'ii. i'I'Reemllry on day to dny n1llrket news nnl not as a comDlete analysts Additional mformatJon wtth n!Spect to any securities referred to herein Will be furmll ectllpon request. . \\'N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 18, 1959
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——– Walston &CO. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange fiLE COPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELl'S MARKET lETTER December 18,1959 Irregularity dominated the market during most of the past week as the Dow-Jones Industrials approached, but were unable to penetrate, the August high of 683.90. A new high for the current upturn, however, was achieved on Wednesday at an intra-day peak 0 681.00. As has previously been noted, the upside objective for the Industrials is 705-710. This letter has previously noted the fact that, when the market has been higher for most of the year, the December low is usually reached early in the month. This was the cC.se this year as the market rose through most of December and the low for the mon h ,as attained in the very first week. Tax-loss selling, of course, continues to cause som irregularity, and- an fmportant clue for 1960 will be-afforded by watching the December 3rd Dow-Jones low of 658.48. Studies previously published by this letter indicate that this low, if broken at all, is usually broken early in the following year. This study will be republished and brought up to date in an early January issue of this letter. Meanwhile, despite the fact that the averages are close to an all-time high, the stock market was kinder in 1959 to some investors than to others. It was, of course, possible to purchase American Motors at 39 5/8 in January of 1959. It was also possible at the same time to purchase United Aircraft at 60 7/8. In summary, investment succes was determined largely by stock selection. Action for 1960 is expected to be similar. As an aid to such selection we continuously maintain a recommended list of issue Among the issues on this list is AMERICAN VISCOSE (46 5/8), originally recommended at 52 and which has been acting better in recent weeks after declining to a low of 41. The company's earnings have fulfilled all expectations and, for the third quarter, the parent company reported earned per share vs. 48 in the comparable 1958 period. This brought parent company earnings for the nine to this figure must be added the 2.29 equity in earnings of giant Chem- strand Corporation. On a consolidated basis, e should run to 5.!5 – 6.00 stock pre prices. Another lssue on our hst for some SciIrrli ANUFACTURING (56), -has also shown improving action of by the excellent 1959 earn- ings picture. rise in sales over the 1958 level, which would a ne a r the company. More interesting, however, was the as earnings over last year's depressed 2.41 per share. A revita is making sweeping changes within the company and operations a eing expanded. Singer Manufacturing, with extensive overseas acilities, appears to afford an excellent participation in the future of under-de oped nations. Recent weakness in INTERNATIONAL PACKERS, LTD.(19), has stemmed from the announcement on the part of Armour & Co. that it is spinning off some 129,000 shares of International's stock. These shares are part of a total of 885,000 shares held by Armour in a voting trust and whichwere acquired in exchange for all of Armour's overseas' facilities. Pursuant to the provisions of this trust, Armour must divest itself of all of these shares by 1967. Since the stock is being distributed in small lots (each Armour holder receives 1/40th of a share for each share held) a large part of it will probably come on the market. While this may cause some nearterm weakness, International is considered an outstanding buy at this time, based on the sharply improving earnings outlOOk for 1959 and-beyond. – KAISER ALUMINUM (53 1/2), on our recommended list for some time, has also shown improving action and, after reacting to support at 46, reached a high of 54 on Friday. While 1959 earnings will probably be even lower than the 1. 43 of 1958, the company recently announced it expects to reach 900/0 of capacity in 1959. Since the business is highly leveraged, such an increase could result in a worthwhile earn- ings improvement. AWT.amb Dow-Jones 676. 65 EDMl'ND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 154.78 ThIS market letter 15 not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed 116. an offer to 'leU or a solicltatton to buy any secUrities referred to herein The information contamed herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the Curnlshlng thereof IS not. and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, a rcpresenta tlOn by Walston & Co., Inc All expressions of OPInion are subject to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, DIrectors, Stockholders and F.mployees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest in the secuntles mentioned herem ThiS market letter IS intended and presented merely as a general, informal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS AddItional mformaiJon with respect to any secunties referred to herein wIll be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' \\'N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 24, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 24, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 24, 1959
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Walston &Co. – – – – – I n c . – – FILE CO Mem bers New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO lOS ANGELES PHILAOELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 24, 1959 Upon my return from my around-the-world trip I fmd the market averages show very little change from when I left New York on November 27th. The Dow-Jones Indus- trial average has failed so far to penetrate the August high of 683.90, but came quite close to that figure on Monday of this week when the intra-day high was 681. 54. One dis- turbing technical development is the rather poor action of some of our breadth-of-the- market studies on advances and declines and new highs and lows. This action could be accounted for by year-end irregularity and tax selling. If so, these indicators should improve after the turn of the year. They must be watched closely. – – – Mytripwas most satisfactory. A day's stop in-San Frandsco was-a'good start- Ing point. Hawaii was most beautiful, as always, and the growth potentlal of our newest state matches its natural charm. A trip to Tokyo followed. I was most impressed with this city and its terrific post-war comeback. The people are hard working and resource- ful, and the economic climate encourages this background. I visited the Tokyo Stock Ex- change which is a most modern and efhclent market. Tokyo is the world's largest city in terms of population, and the growth potentials are most favorable. Hong Kong surpassed even my expectations. I am quoting below some excerpts from the First National City Bank of New York Monthly Letter. Hong Kong's recent economic growth is one of the outstanding success stories m the Far East today. This achievement has been one of private enterprise operating within a free market economy A great seaport and commercial center, Hong Kong grew to prospenty on the entrepot trade with China, its location convenient for trans- shipment of goods to and from the West. But when the mainland fell to the communists, and the Korean War brought a United Nations embargo was suddenly changed. . ((D A W China, all this When necessity forced Hong Kong to find o' ome to replace the lost China trade, its resourceful ti ew opportunities were vigorously sougMAn Southeast ASIa A 0 . SlilP mg.and some small amount of light industry were already C y, expansion faced difficulties lack of fuel, scarcity of 'mpetitionfromwellestablishedforeign producers, not to men 'on tli e p that the Chinese communists might some day cho s 0 u e little island colony. .1t there were assets too. Skilled labor an 1 ere augmented by an influx of refugee labor and capital from the m nd. t important of all, the economic climate was favorable to y was expanded and, at the same time, energetic efforts were made to deve arger export markets. New products were introduced and old ones adapted to consumer needs In different countries In the past decade factory employment has tripled. Despite fluctuations in over- all trade, exports of Hong Kong manufactures have climbed steadily, from a bare 100/0 of total export sales in 1947 to nearly 700/0 thIS year. In value terms this represents a rise from about 40 million to almost 400 million, with more than half comprised of textiles and apparel. Hong Kong's success in attracting foreign investment and achieving rapid de- velopment despite inherent disadvantages IS striking testimony to the truth of liberal economic principles As the Hong Kong Government itself states in Its latest annual Jeport The predominant theme in International discussions about ASIa in recent years has been the urgent need for outSIde promote . economic de- velopment and to raise the standard of living Hong Kong, .however, has (been) . the exception. This small Colony, almost entirely lacking in natural resources other than the indomItable will and enterprise of ItS people, has not only belied all prophecIes of economic disaster, but also established itself as a vigorous industnal power This development has been achieved without major recourse to outside economic assistance. The main impression I gathered from my trip is that both In the Far East and ir, London and Paris conditions are extremely prosperous and the potentials for world trade over the next twenty years are tremendous. A MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL FROM MYSELF AND THE STAFF. 1nti.And u1RJfl1Tia c!r6llmatanees is to be conRtrued as, at! off.!!' ta scll or uErk.MJJWQr .. to herem The Jnformation tMtb tc'l!'urncy or completeness and oplrllOn are subject the to furmshmg therCQf change 'Ithout n IS ot l Wnotl.VtS no . &. 0 te; pUe!tors, as. a representa Stockholders unci mrormal commentary on day to and-MlifoflMr1!lan Interest In day market news and not as a the securltle1 mentioned hereln'Iilis marKet e complete analysIs AdditIOnal mrormatlOn with ter IS IrI n respect to any an prCBented merel). us a general securities referred to herem 'Ill fllrmshed upon request 1\ 301 -'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 30, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 30, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 30, 1959
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NEW YORK Walston &- Co. Inc – – – – – Membe1S New Y01k Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS FILE COpy CHICAGO December 30, 1959 As the end of the year arrives economists, security analysts, and financial writers are issuing forecasts for 1960. The most interesting thing to note about these forecasts is their unammity. Most analysts appear to be looking for new highs in the 700-750 range to be made sometime m middle or early 1960, followed by a reaction in the latter half of the year. From a technical pOint of view, this forecast seems plausible, and it has been the View adhered to by thiS letter. A forecast is value, however,unless itaids.usinc;tetermining investment policy. – rn–determimng such policy, -it is necessary-to realize that the market is not a one-way street — that it can go down as well as up. Jf, indeed, the Dow-Jones Industrials do advance to 750, this would constitute a gain of some 12 from current levels. Considering the fact that the market has already advanced some 300 since 1949, and is statistically rather high, a possible 12 advance seems somewhat picayune when measured against the downside risk inherent in a great number of stocks. Admittedly, the outlook for certain individual issues appears much brighter than that for the averages. After a ten-year bull market, however, a good deal of risk must be said to be present. This rlsk is underscored by the rather desultory breadth-of-the-market action in recent weeks. The market defimtely appears to be losing upside momentum and this loss, combined with the factors mentioned above, certainly constitutes a caution signal. It must be noted, however, that the unfavorable breadth figures may be distorted somewhat by tax loss selling and by rates. For example, on Tuesday, December 29th, there wek onl e -ghs versus some forty-five new lows. Of these forty-five WJ.-9w we ,twenty-five were preferreds which move in response to – – The effect of tax sellin However, as this letter has pre past twenty years has pr c – more difficult fect at the end of each of the fClii'arket action which can be helpful in ion, a number of note. (1) a December and ca yin ce 1935 there has been a year-end rally starting m rough into January of the following year. (2) If market has been higher for most of the given year, the December low is usually reached early in the month. The reverse is usually true if the trend has been down. This was the case m 1957 when the low was reached on December 23rd, whereas in 1958 the low was reached on December 3rd. This year, the low in the Dow-Jones Industrials was reached on December 3rd, and on Standard & Poor Stock Index the bottom was reached on December 1st. (3) In every year since 1937, an advance of 100/0, or more, from the December low has indicated an up market in the following year. (4) Since 1937, the December low, if ever broken, has always been broken before mid-TIVIarch– usually in early January. Thus, the December lows of in658.48 in the Dow-Jo-nes Industrial average and 62.70 the Standard &. Poor Index become important figures to watch. The longer the market holds above these lows, the more likely an uptrend for 1960 becomes. If the market could move 10 above these lows — to some 725 in the Dow-Jones Industrials, and to 69.00 in the Standard & Poor Index — the likelihood of an uptrend market is even greater. If, on the other hand, the lows should be broken in January, extreme caution would certainly be indicated. ….q'\A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL FROM MYSELF AND THE STAFF. AWTamb Dow-Jones In d 676. 97 EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. tl''- ….';', J

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