Viewing Year: 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - January 02, 1959
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,i Walston &Co. —–lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange FILE COPY ,, NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 2, 1959 SINGER MANUFACTURING COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common 48 2.20 4.6 32,790,000 – '4,50'0; OOn-shE. In our forecast for 1959, outlined in last week's letter, one item ran as follows Many stocks , some high-grade which have been overlooked, which have done little or nothing marketwise for ten years or longer, – are breaking base on the up side. It is this development which Sales, 1957 Net Per Share 1957 358,602,505 3.15 (1) leads to the belief that we will have an,entirely new set of market leaders, many of which have participated only to a limited extent in the advance to date. Mkt. Range 1958-52 493/4 – 29 One stock which might be mentioned in connection with the above forecast is Singer (1) Excludes non-recurring items Manufacturing Co. That Singer represents quality can hardly be contested. It is now the only important domestic producer of sewing machines and it has been the leader in the field for close to 100 years. That the stock has been something less than a market leader is also fairly obvious. From 1952 until recently, it ranged between a low of 29 and a high of 47. By reaching a high at 48, it broke out on the upside of this long tion of as much as 90-95 over the long term. Support is provi d technical indicaotliginal base just under current levels. A cursory glance at Singer's operating record doe prices. Its earnings over the past five years 1957 resultswere 3.-1,-after eliminating nell-re – ite e t 0 stification for higher m in 1953 to 4.25 in 1956. nd 1958 – further decline to the 2.50-2. 75 – Before drawing the obvious it is necessary to stress two facts 1. The reason for recent po rear e competition from imported machines —has been at least pa ti 1 43iAit e. 2. The company's po puts it in a position to diversify into other profitable \ lines, a course which it e de aking under the aegis of a young and aggressive management. In regard to imports, er's family machines, led by the new patent-protected, Slant- o-matic, are now belie to be fully competitive with German and Japanese imported models. In 1958, sales of home machines by Singer have been up 6 over the prior year. If Singer were to regain anything like its former share of the market, earnings from this source alone could increase sharply. In this connection, it is worthy of note, that U. S. retail outlets have been increased some 50 in 10 years and the company is now selling machines and supplies through Woolworth's and other variety stores. Over the long term, however, Singer's attraction lies in still another direction. With its conservatively-stated book value of 69.17 per share and working capital of around 62 per share after deducting debt, Singer is in an admirable position for expansion and diversi- fication into related fields. Two possible outlets for such diversification come to mind first, research and engineering, a field for which the company's long experience in fine machinery eminently qualifies it, and, second, related retailing lines. In this connection, it is interesting to note that Singer probably has more world-wide retail outlets than any other company in the world. The marketing power thus generated could be fantastic. Tentative steps toward diversification have been taken, with the acquisition of a Canadian pulp and paper producer and a small research and development firm. These acquisitions, while relatively small, may signify the beginning of a trend. Thus, Singer appears to present a minimum of downside risk, plus attractive income and capital gains possibilities over the long term. The current dividend, 2.20 per share, provides a yield of close to 5 and, with the favorable cash position, could be increased as earnings improve. The stock is being added to our recommended list for purchase on a long-term investment basis. EDMUND W. TABELL This mnrket letter IS not. nnd under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to scl( 0 I rtlrtM to h II 11 el!ufltJ e ted to herem The infdrmahon A if contp,med herem IS not gunrantc('cllls to accuracy or completeness anrl the furmshlns! thereof IS not, and under no circumstance'! is to be conshued ns, a representa- . n!).i\f(iY 'Vlllston & Co Inc. All expreo;SlOns of OPlnLon are subject to chanJle WIthout notlce Walston & Co, Inc, and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders and -r-,mpln)'ee'! thereof, pnrchllse, sell and may an mterest 10 the securIties mentIOned herem. ThIS market letter is 10tended and presented merely as a general, mformal commcntary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal 1OformatlOn 'illth respect to an)' securIties referred to hCT('in wdl be furlllshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\'\, 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - January 09, 1959
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NEW YORK -. \-.FILElmPV Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA' CHICAGO OffICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 9, 1959 After almost approaching the 600 objective mentioned in my recent letters, the Do /. Jones Industrial average deelined from a high of 594.31 on Monday to a low of 581. 07 on Wednesday. A rally at the end of the week carried to an intra-day high of 5 94. 8 on Friday, a new high for the average. Probably the market is in need of a consolidating period around these levels. is strong support at 570-560, and any technical decline not accompanied by unfavorable news factors should not carry below that level. Some individual issues have reached up- side objectives, but from a technical viewpoint there are a great many more that indi- cate considerably higher objectives. As always, the action of individual issues will be more important than the action of the market averages, The objective of my recommended list is to select individual issues which should show above average action, The issues recommended are long term holdings meant to be retained six months or longer and are not suggested for trading turns. When object- ives are reached, individual stocks are dropped from the list. In this connection, we are now dropping three stocks Anchor Hocking had an objective of 80-90 and has reach- ed 80 3/4, Container Corporation had an objective of 30-32 and has reached 30 1/4, and Lily Tulip, with an objective of 95-110, reached 106. The complete list follows, together with a separate list of low-priced speculations originally recommended on November 7, 1958. Recommended Price Current Price Current Dividend . /0 Yield American Can 5 Family Finance .,.. Flintkote5 Getty Oil – 4222 46 28 5304 57 rsd 26 vJ 0 2.4 4.0 4.7 -4.2 Gimbel s 27 '\/ 1.80 4.9 Gulf Oil -' Heinz, H.J. 115 56 2.50 2.20 2.0 3. 1 Hercules Powder Hoffman Hooker Chemic V 40 37 1.10 1.00 1.00 2. 1 2.5 2.7 Intern'l Minerals 29 1.60 5.5 Magnavox 52 1.50 2.9 Monsanto Chemical National Distillers National Gypsum s 38 27 42 .40 1.00 2.5 '32 1.00 3. 1 62 2.00 3.2 Newport News Shipbuild. . 47 46 2.00 4.3 Pan Amer. World Air, 15 26 .80 3. 1 Pennsalt Chemical 71 80 1.85 2.3 Philip Morris s 48 64 3. 00 4.7 Royal Dutch 48 48 1. 32 2.8 Shell Transport 22 21 1.04 4.9 Singer Manufacturing 48 53 2.20 4.2 Wilson & Co. 15 34 1. 40 4.1 Recommended Price Avco 9 Chemway 11 Curtis Publish. 15 Decca Records 18 Divco Wayne 17 Fruehauf 17 LOW-PRICED STOCKS Current Recommended Price Price 12 Hotel Corp. 7 12 National Can 14 15 Pacific Pete 18 19 Publicker 11 23 Rayonier 19 20 United Industrial 13 Current Price 8 14 18 13 21 17 I i I I EDMUND W. TABELL ThUj market letter is not. and under no ci'rcumst;ances IS to be construed as, an to sell or sohcitat!6r'l It& The mformatlOn contained herein 18 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furmshmg thereof IS not, and under no clreumstances is to be conetrued as, a representa- tion by \I.'alston & Co Inc All expressIOns of opIniOn are subJect to chanRe without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and thereof sell and may have an mterest In the securities mentIOned herem ThiS market letter is Intended and presented merely as a Reneral, JtcommenUtry on day to day market news not as a complete analysIS. AddltJona.! InformatIOn wlth respect to any securitJes referred to herem flll nlsherl upon re'1uest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - January 16, 1959
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/!'- / FIJLE COP Walston Inc—- Membe,'s New YOTk Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD January 16,1959 A year ago this letter pointed out that market action in December and January seems to follow a pattern. Since 1935, tax loss selling and switching usually has had effect on markets at the end of each year. The following table shows that there has been rally at the end of each year which has carried through into January of the following year even though it has been very small and of a few day's duration in sOITeinstances. The table, based on Standard & Poor's 425-Industrial Stock Index, shows, in columns 1 and 2, the date and price when the average reached its December low. In columns 4, 5 and are date and price of the next subsequent high and the percentage advance. If the low of 'the previous the dateTs noted in colurrii17. Tlie- subs-equent low, the year-end close, and the trend are noted in the last three columns -1- -2- -3- -4Year Date Low Year Date -5- Next High -6/0 Adv -7- Dec. Low Broken -8Subsequent Low -9- -10Year's Trend Close \ \ 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 12/16 12.07 1936 4/6 14.81 22.7 Never 12/21'16.031937 3/6. 18.10 12.9 4/26 12/28 10.03 1938 1/11 11.73 16.9 12/9 12.28 1939 1/4. 13.08 6.5 -1/13 12/12 11.89 1940 1/3' 12.42 .4.5 -1/12 12/23 10.18 1941 1/10. 10.62 -1/21 12/23 8.47 1942 1/5. 9.15 8.0 -3/11 12/1 9.39 1943 6/14 12.58 13.4 Never 12/1 11.06 1944 3/17 12.16. 9.9 Never 12/1 12.64 1945 3/7 14.10 11.6 N1iIer 12/21 16.39 1946 2/2 17.99 9.8 2\(J;iJc 12/1 13.94 1947 2/8 15.71 12.7 Nt/vep) 12/6 14.51 1948 1/2' 15.17 12/1 14.90 1941f-ll8-'-fiill5)ffi4 27 12/1 15.89 1950 12/4 19.17 1951 5 ,1;0J cO ever Never 9.73 8.39 9.92 8.70 8.47 7.54 -'0jJ .4 3.58 16.50 -10.26 13.07 12.06 -10.34 8.78 9.93 11.63 0 13.05 16.79 1.i.3.5 15.18 15.12 Up Down Up Down Down Up Up Up Up Down Up 20.57 Up 24.24 Up 195112/1 1952 12/4 1953 12/29 1954 12/1 1955 12/20 1956 12/4 1957 12/23 1958 12/3 25. 24.5 35.14 47.79 49.05 41.88 55.58 1 7.7 Never ..82 -3.8 3/18 14 27.15 10.5 Never 195 3 38.17 8.6 Never 6 1/3' 48.07-0.6 -1/23 1957 1/4' 49.971.9 ,-1/14 1958 2/4 45.57 8.8 Never 1959M1/12''''' 59.92'' 7.8 22.70 45.71 41.98 26.89 Up 24.87 Down 37.24 Up 48.44 Up 50.08 Up 42.86 Down 58.97 Up , \ wa1 23. 30bn a decisive downside penetration. 20th, 1952, but this is not considered . To date. A number of interesting conUusions can be drawn from the above figures and applied to the current market. For example, if the market has been higher for most the given year, the December low is usually reached early in the month. The reverse usually true if the trend has been down. Thus, in 1957, the December low was not until December 23rd, while in 1958 it was reached on December 3rd. More im- however, is the fact-that in has the beeri' broken after and in most cases, if broken at all, it is penetrated in the of the ing ye,ar. Furthermore, with one exception,an advance of 10/0 or more from the DeceJffi(.el' low has always been followed by an up market. So far this year the market has already advanced close to 8/0 from the December low. Thus, the 1958 December bottom of 55.58 in the Standard & Poor Index becomes an important one to watch. If this low holds for the next six to eight weeks, or if an advance of 10/0 to around 61.00 is recorded, the likelihood of a down market in 1959 becomes less. So far, no deterioration in the uptrend is evident. EDMUND W. TAB ELL AWTamb WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mllTket letter is not. Ilnd under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or II sohCltatlOn to buy liny securilies referred to herem The information contained herem IS not guaranteed ns to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmJ! thereof not, and under no eircumstnn-c!S i to be construed as, a repr!Sentn tl()n by '\\'nlston & Co, Inc. All expressIOns of OPinion arc 8ubJ!Ct to change \\Ithout nollce Walston & Co. Inc. and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Emll1()yees ther(!Of, purchase, sell and may ha\e an Interest In the s(CUrItIes mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely aj n general, mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a comlliete analYSIS Additional mformatlOn With respect to any SeCurities referred to herein Will be upon r e q u e s t ' \\ N 30l i

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - January 23, 1959
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NEW YORK FILE COpy Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 23, 1959 Statistics BUTLER BROTHERS Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Minority Interest Common Stock 39 1. 60 4.10/0 6,504,000 1,156,000 1,016,142 shs, From time to time this letter has pointed out some of the growth prospects inherent in the retailing field. In this field, Butler Bros., with a unique franchise-type operation, appear s to have a good deal of attraction. Butler franchises some 2400 retail varie IY stores known as Ben Franklin Stores. This Sales-1958-E 170,000,000 Earned Per Sh, 1958 – E 3.00 Mkt. Range 1959-58 40 1/2 – 22 1/4 franchise system has numerous advantages, both for Butler Bros. and for the independent owners who operate the stores. The owner has the satisfaction of having his own busines , but has the large buying power of a nationwid chain. Consequently, the average store purchases 800/0 of its merchandise from Butler's own Ben Franklin warehouses, From Butler's pOint of view, the parent company is not committed to tying up capital in expansion. It can open stores as fast as it can find de- sirable operators, A further corollary is the fact that, as additional units are opened, profit margins for Butler expand as warehousing costs are spread over a larger number of units. Sales to franchised Ben Franklin Stores constituted some 710/0 of Butler's total sales in 1957. These sales have shown an increase in since 1949 and current volume is more than three times that of ten years ago. 'E at growth trend has not been apparent is due to the fact that Butler, ed in other retail- ing fields. Some of these fields were relatively d zed capital which could better have been employed in the Ben FrankliJ\0'4rati 'uver the past seven years unser a series of managements, Butler effort to divest itself of less attractive segments of its s investment on more profitable lines, This effort has Corporation which now 9wns . the aegis of Rapid American the outstanding common stock. Butler now consists of the . i ; Scott-Stores, a chain of company-owned variety stores . e Mid-West, and the recently acquired T.G.& Y. Stores, serving the 1Ioth the Scott and T. G. & Y. divisions have proved con- sistently profitable d e eir centralized regional-type operations. The only low profit division remaining i chain of West Coast department stores. Possible future sale of these outlets would provide further funds for expansion. Thus, the Butler story so far has been one of improving earnings by eliminating relatively unprofitable outlets. Under this policy net income has increased from 739 per share in 1953 to 2.74 in 1957, a gain of 2750/0, on an 110/0 increase in sales. 1958 earn- ings are estimated at 3.00, and for 1959 net profits could well be over 4.00 a share. The next chapter in Butler's history will probably be acquisition of other profit- able regional chains such as T.G.& Y. It is felt that these acquisitions can be accom- plished with a minimum of equity dilution. Thus, the earnings trend of the last five years could well be continued. The current dividend of 1. 60 provides a 4.10/0 yield, but this figure is somewhat below the company's usual payout ratio and a slight increase would not be surprising. Further liberalization could take place as earnings expand. From a technical pOint of view, the stock has a possible long term objective of 60, with support just under current levels. The stock is being added to our recommended list and is suggested for relatively good income and capital appreciation, AWTamb EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not. and under no Circumstances IS to be construed UB, an ofter to sell or n soliCitation to buy any secUritieS referred to herem The mformatlOn conltuned herein IS not Jlulll'anteed as to uccurac)' or completencss and the furnishing thereof IS not. and under no Circumstances is to be construed nfl, n reprC'Jenta. tlOn by ,,alston &. Co, Inc All expressions of opinIOn are subject to chnnJe Without notice. 'Valston & Co., Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stockholdcrs and Informal thereof, purchase, commentary on da)' tsoeldl anyndmmarnkyethnaevWe'Sananmd tneroetsat sma the SCCllrJtlC!l complete mentioned herem ThiS market letter IS Intended AddltlOnnl mformation With respect to any and presented merely a5 a general, securities referred to herem will be furnl'lhed upon r e ( l u e s t ' . WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 30, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 30, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - January 30, 1959
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FILE COpy Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OffiCES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 30, 1959 Since the start of the year the market, as measured by the averages, has held in a relatively narrow trading range between roughly 600 and 580. After reaching my inter- mediate term objective of 600 at the January 22nd high of 601. 74, the average declined to a low of 584.71 this Wednesday. A good part of the decline was recovered at Friday's close of 593.96. It is possible that the market is in need of some consolidation at around present levels, but there is no indication of an important top. A downside penetration of 600-580 tl'ading range would indicate a long as a buying opportunity. Such a correction, if it 'occurs, should not carry fer. There is strong support in the 570-560 range and the minor potential tops already formed do not indicate a decline below that area unless the pattern broadens considerably. The wise st course of action today, in my opinion, is forget about the action of the averages and the general market and concentrate on the action of individual issues. There are a great many that indicate higher levels before the present long term advance is completed. Technical corrections in issues in an uptrend should be welcomed as buyin opportunities. The airlines, for example, have had a sharp advance since the first of the year, but the upside potentials on my technical work are considerably above both the re- cent highs and present levels. PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAYS (28 5/8)on my recom- mended list at an original level of 15, reached a new high at 30 1/8earlier in the month. It reacted to 27 1/4 on Wednesday. The longer term upside potential remains at 40-50 and there is good downside support at 26-24. About the same pattern applies to other air- lines. The group appears to be a good buy on moderate wea The oils, which started to show improving actio e 0 ecbJ.esday's dip, also are attractive at current levels. They have a t'al p nt' bases and could be one of the strong groups of 1959. GULF OILl1 CH (48), SHELL TRANSPORT (21), and GETTY OIL (26 3/8) a on ec ended list. The chemicals also appear tii-De fo I , gte-clinical palterrl6,HERCUL POWDER (54 1/4)which is down I 1, is near strong support levels. PENNSALT CHEMICAL priced. '\. '-Y high of 85 and also appears attractivel There 0 (44 1/8)has, In m '0rQ)t t at ear attractive. NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING ficlent techmcal correction of its advance to 50 5/8. The company state y t 's 1958 earnings would be above the 4.00 level anticipate earlier. The company' esent backlog extends well into 1960 and earnings of at least 4.00 a share appea 0 be a minimum. The maximum earnings, dependent on new orders from the ship subsidy program and atomic submarines for the U. S. Navy, could be considerably higher. I like the stock at present levels. SINGER MANUFACTURING (49) down from a high of 54 7/8, and MAGNAVOX (51), down from a high of 60 1/2, are close to good support levels and should be bought on moderate weakness. There are a number of other issues not in my recommended list that I would purchase on further weakness. CLUETT,PEABODY (48 1/2), recently broke out of a ten-year trading range between 22 and 50 to reach a high of 53. It reacted to 46 on Wednesday. Would add the issue to the list in the 45-47 area. A rail, CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, ST-.,-P-AUL-&rPACIF.lC,( 277/8), has bUIlt up a verYInteresting lQng term technical potentral. The recent high was 30 3/8 and the stock has held in the 10-30 range since 1951. Ability to break out of this area would indicate a long term trend reversal. The stock moves in a wide range, but would add it to the list for long term holding if available in the 28-25 area. EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC, ThiS market letter IS not. and under no Circumstances is to be construed as, an offer to sell or n soliCitatIOn to buy any s(!Cunties referred to herem The Information contained herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlShlllJl!' therC!'O( IS not, and under no CIrcumstances 19 to be construed as, n Teprcsenta tlflll b li\'nJo.tnn & Co, Inc All e'lpresslOns of opllllon are subJect to change Without nobce Walston & Co, Inc, and OfficeI'!!, Directors, Stockholders and Employccs thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest in the lIecurities mentioned herein ThIS market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general, Informal commentary on day to day market news and not us a complete analYSIS AddltJ(lnnl information With respect to any seCUrities referred to herein Will be furlllshed upon r e q , u e s t ' \\N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 06, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 06, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 06, 1959
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– ——– – – – – FILE COPY &-Walston Co. Inc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN fRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 6,1959 The Dow-Jones Industrial average broke below the January 29th low of 584.71 to reach an intra-day low of 580.54 on Friday. This technical action, combined with a breaking of the November-January uptrend line, indicates a reversal of trend and decline to lower levels in the general market. As indicated in recent letters, I believe the 570- 560 level in the industrials will furnish very strong support. A full normal technical correction of 33 1/3 to 40 of the fifteen-month advance of 180 points from the October, 1957 low of 420 to the January 1959 high of 600 would bring the average down to the 540525 area. It will be noted that 525 is the level of triple top of the 1953-1957 advance. A 'high of approximately5-25 was-reached- twrc-e-in 1956 antI' ag-aiil-inJline;-195 7-This, te-ch nically, would be a very strong support level. However, unless very unexpected news events should change the picture, a reaction to that level does not appear probable. The averages have not yet built a distributional pattern of sufficient size to indicate an important decline and only a few over-exploited issues have built up top patterns. Most individual stocks indicate the probability of only a relatively mild decline. Believe further weakness should be used to add to holdings in selected issues with favorable long term fundamental and technical patterns. Reprinted below is my recommended list with the exception of one stock which is still a prospectus issue. The issues recommended are for long term holding of six months or longer. Would add Cluett Peabody (52) if available in the 50-47 range, and Northrop Corp. (33) if available in the 33-31 range. A separate list of low-prices specu lative issues is also included Recommended Current Price Price iW\\\ A'n ce Current Price American Can Butler Bros, Flintkote Getty Oil Gimbel Gulf Oil Heinz, H.J. Hercules Powder Hoffman Electronic Hooker Chemical Intern'l Minerals 42 48 &B39 39 ical 46 5'R0! .'WPNi;'wport News Ship. 6 \ – Pan Amer. -World Air 2fr/sY\, 120 Pennsalt Chemical Philip Morris 6 69 Royal Dutch 52 Shell Transport 2-21 39 Singer Mfg. 35 37 Wilson & Co. 29 29 40 38 47 15 71 48 48 22 48 15 52 -41 46 28 76 63 47 21 49 33 LOW-PRICED STOCKS Recommended Price Current Price Recommended Curren Price Price Avco Chemway Curtis Publishing Decca Records Divco-Wayne Fruehauf Trailer -9 15 i8 17 17 12 12 — 14 18 26 21 Hotel Corp. National Can Pacific Petroleum Publicker Rayonier United Industrial 7 14 18 11 19 13 — 7 – 18 14 21 17 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thlij marhcL letter is not, and under no circumstances IS to be conRtrucd as, an offer to sell or n solICitatiOn to buy any securaties referred to herem The informatlOn I'ontll.lncd herein 1' not guaranteed flF! to accuraey or completeness and the furnlShmlt thereof IS not, and under no Clrcumstunccs IS to be construed as, a 11011 h) \Vnlstoll & Co. Inc. All expressions of op1Own are subJect to ehnngc Without notice & Co. Inc, and OffICCrs, Dtreetors, Stockholders and ElIlplyccs thereof, pUlchnle. sell anrl may have an mterest 10 the secUrities mentIoned herem ThIS market letter IS Intended and presented merely aq a lI'1formnl ('ornmcntnry on day to day market news not as a complete annlysls Addltlonnl mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herem furlllshcd npon request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 13, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 13, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 13, 1959
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FILE COpy Wdlston &Co. —-Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 13, 1959 On below average volume, the Dow-Jones Industrials dropped 7.87 pOints on Tuesday to reach a new intra-day low of the year at 571. 73. This decline was entirely retraced on Wednesday when the average advanced 8.19 pOints. Since then, the Indus- trials have traded in the lower part of the 600-580 range with volume at relatively low levels. Volume on Thursday at 2,630,000 shares, was the lowest since September 5th. The averages are now wedged between an overhead supply of a month's duration in the 580-600 level and a downside support level of about equal importance at 570-555. With a good portion of the fourth quarter earnings reports published, it may require -some outSicfe news-iirfluence -to- push-the -general markefa'oQve-tK-e'overheadsupply'Or-.-',..—- below the downside support before late March or early April. I envision a consolidating or trading area for the next month or so, with individual issues moving in their own price pattern. If no untoward news developl'i, I would expect that the favorable com- parisons of the 1959 first quarter earnings with the 1958 first quarter should result in new highs for the averages in April. Attention might be drawn to my letter of January 16th in which we stressed the importance of the December low and subsequent price action for the first four months of the next year. Since 1935, if the December low was not broken by April,. it was not broken for the balance of the year. Our compilations of January 16th were in terms of Standard & Poor's 425-Industrial Stock Index which reached an intra-day December low of 55.58 on December 3rd. In terms of the Dow-Jones Industrials, the December intra- day low was reached on December 8th at 553.70. Thus the important low points to watch for the first four months are 55.58 and 553.70. If these lows are not brQken by the end of April, experience of the last twenty-four wi1l!e broken for the balance of the year. Friday's close was 57 '0Ydand 587.97on the Dow-Jones Industrials. on Ii Poor Index The January 16th compilations also the' esting fact that in twelve -out ca-ses, if-a-hi-gh ber…lew-was -r.ea-ched early in the year,the market nce of the year. Thus, if a new high of about 61.00 on Index and about 610.00 on the Dow- Jones Industrials are reache 'n t or so, the odds would favor an up- side market for the e e. intra-day highs for so far in 1959 are 60.27 on the S & P Ind 0 ow-Jones Industrials. From a te 1 i int, the market does not show any important indica- tions )f long term to individual issues have built up potential tops of only rela- tiVE minor import These tops could, of course, broaden but there is no imme- diate indication of such a development. The only issues with vulnerable patterns are those issues that have had extremely sharp price advances and are in need of technical correction. For the general market to show signs of a vulnerable condition would re- quire a longer period of time. Important top patterns usually take six months or longer to form. Some groups that have moved ahead sharply since the start of the advance in October, 1957 have reached upside objectives and appear in need of at least a consoli- dating area. Such a classification would include drugs, food chains, food products and, in some cases, utilities, and also some of the electronic issues and specialties that howe risen shlrply in a short period of time. On the other hand, there are still a great many groups that are a considerable distance away from their upside potentials. A partial list of such groups include airlines, building supplies, chemicals, coppers, meat packing, oils (domestic), paper, railroads, rubber, soft drinks and textiles. Other groups could join this list after some minor consolidation or decline. Some other groups have shown relatively poor immediate action but appear to be forming sizc.ble base patterns for the longer term. This may require more time and moderately lower price levels. Aluminums and international oils are in this classification. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. Thl'l market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or n sohCltatlOn to buy any securities referred to herein The informatIOn contamed herem 15 not guaranteed no; to nccuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof lS not, and under no clrcumstnnces is to be construed us, a representa- hon by ,Valston & Co, Jnc. All expressions of opinion arc subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, nnd Officers, Directors, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, seJl and may huve an intE!rcst 1n the mentIOned herein ThiS market letter 1S Ifltcnded nnd presented merely a'J a general, mformal commentary on day to day mnrket ne….'S and not os a complete anolYSI'J Ad,htinnal IflformatlOn With re'Jpect to IIny securities referred to herem Will be furmshed upon r e q u e s t ' 30l

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 20, 1959
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W—a-l-sItnocn.-&-C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange fiLE COPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCC LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 20, 1959 In recent issues this letter has commented on the oil stocks, stressing the fact that they appeared to offer sound investment value around current levels. Since that time, mar ket action has been somewhat desultory. Briefly, the current picture is as follows. International oils, under considerable pressure due to political news and adverse ma – keting developments, have not destroyed their favorable technical patterns. Indeed, they continue to build up bases which mdlcate substantial upside potentials over the longer ter Although over the nearer term action may be slow, they should be bought on weakness by long term investors. For most of the domestic oils, the immediate potential is consider- ably brighter and these could show better market action than the internationals over the next few months. However, longer term possibilities are not a, s dynamic. A third segmen of the group is the Canadian industry, which will be reviewed briefly below. Based on information currently available, it seems that the greatest immediate poten tial for Canadian oil companies lies in natural gas. Gas is, indeed, one of the fastest growing energy sources. It now accounts for 27 of the energy consumed in the United States, vs. less than 17 ten years ago. At the end of 1958, proven reserves of natural gas in Canada were about 28.5 trillion cubic feet. potential reserves have been placed at 308 trillion cubic feet vs. known U. S. reserves of around 230 trillion. However, lack of transmission facilities has prevented Canadian gas from being readily marketed. Indeed, producers have been forced to flare, or burn up, a large amount of the gas produced as a by-product of oil drilling. There is now evidence that this unhappy situation may be coming to an end. Late last year the Trans-Canada pipeline, the world's largest natural gas line, was completed fro the Alberta fields to Montreal, thus opening up eastern Alber a gas. Much greater potentials lie in the eventual of n ga to the western and mid-western United States. Currently, a eli e on both sides of the border is delaying the realization of ort ,eventually, when regula- tory difficulties are resolved, it has been e ed'ttrat over a billion cubic feet per day could be exported from clude the following. (1) A prOcit'eS' via Westcoast Transmission d 1 i !California ( i io w markets. Proposals for export inin exported from the Peace River area Pipeline to Washington, Oregon and y Tennessee Gas Transmission to serve the mid-west area v' c0 rans-Canada pipeline. (3) A planned 1,300-mile transmission line en r lberta to San Francisco to be built by Pacific Gas & Electric. Although i is likely that any of these proposals will be approved imme- diately, it would see at Canadian gas must eventually find its natural U. S. market. Meanwhile, the oil picture, while not immediately exciting, offers a bright long- range future. The major prospect here is a projected oil pipeline running to Montreal which is now importing some 400,000 barrels of crude oil and products per day. In sum- mary, then, it would seem that the Canadian oil industry, long stifled by lack of outlets for its products, is now entering the very beginning of an era in which extensive markets will be opened up. Under this stimulus, production, reserves, and earnings could expe- rience remarkable growth. From a technical point of view, many Canadian oil issues have built up substantial bases which could indicate sizable upside potentials. Two Canadian issues, both traded on the American Stock Exchange, appear favor- ably situated. PACIFIC PETROLEUM (17) has been on our recommended list for some time. The company holds an interest in almost 17 million gross acres, many un- developed, largely in the Peace River area. Through a 27 holding of Westcoast Trans- mission Co. Ltd., it is in a position to participate in gas distribution as well as product- ion, Proven gas r;eserves are about a half-trillion cubic feet. . HOME OIL, LIMITED, (B stock price 20) also has some half-trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, plus substantial proven oil reserves. Extensive oil development is taking place on its promising Swan Hill fields in Alberta. Two classes of stock are traded, t'he A stock, which has a dividend prefererce and the B stock, which otherwise is co-equal. Both are recommended for purchase and are being added to our recommended list. EDMUND W. TABELL ,,'lihtllr'l!lrj(e1Jl'I1.ter IS not, and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to ,eferred to herem The mformatlOn l1rMVtaUV!aLJlilkkh IS not Itunrnntced as to accuracy or completeness nnd the furnlshmg thereof is not. and under no cU'cumst/lncco; is to be construed as, a representa- tIOn by Wnlston & Co., Inc All c'lpreSSlOns of opmlOn are subJect to change '.I.ithout notJce Walston & Co, Inc. and Officers, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, selland may have an mterest III the seeuntJes mentlOncd herem ThIS market letter IS llltended and presented merely as a genera, mrormal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformation With respect to nny securities referred to herem Will be furmshcd upon r e q u e s t ' \\ N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 27, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 27, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - February 27, 1959
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Walston &Co. —–lnc. —– Members New York Stuck Exchange fit NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 27, 1959 The market forged into new high ground this week with the Dow-Jones Industrial average reaching a peak of 606.53 on Friday. As mentioned before, upside potential for the average appears to be 625 for the shorter term. Beyond this, it will be necessary to watch future price developments in order to determine the direction of the next near-ter trend. Regardless of the action of the market, however, individual stock selection will be most important. In this connection, the airline group appears to offer a good deal of upside attract ion. In most cases, financing arrangements for the jet age have been completed and the majorityof .. t. thea,d.vent oLj ets. a-maj or stimului3 .to .aircarriel' revenues. Pan American World Airways (28) has been on our recommended list for som time. NORTHWEST AIRLmES, mc., which is reviewed below, is being added to our list and its purchase is recommended for capital appreciation. NORTHWEST AIRLmES,mC. Current Price CCuurrrreenntt YDiievliddend 38 2.01.80 Northwest Airlines is both a domesti and international air route system servi g OEaprenreatdinpgerReSvheanrue-e1-1995588 310 918,283,000 26 cIties in 11 states, 2 cities in Canada Alaska, Hawaii, and 5 major cities in th Orient. Domestic routes connect Minnea Funded Debt 62,500,000 pOlis-St. Paul; Chicago,Detroit and Mil- 51/4 Cum.Cv.pfd.(25 par) 457,873 shs.(l) waukee with Seattle-Tacoma and Portlan Common Stock 1,373,620 shs. in the York and Wash Market Range 1959-58 39 1/4 – 10 1/8 0e eaboard. Recently (1) – Each share convertible into 96/100ths share common. a arded routes to Atla t nts via Chicago. Three in routes are operated, running -es are 'aerived from. thedomestic Perhaps mo t strl'n Northwest picture is its current statis- tical cheapness com a major domestic trunk lines. Despite the fact that its price has ris less than six months, it is still cheaper on an earn ings basis than mo he 0 air carriers, and sells at less than ten times 1958 earn ings. The company l' ce estimated 1958 per-share results at 3.98, probably includin some 60 capital gaO rom sale of equipment. This contrasts with 1957 earnings of 3.5 of which 2.18 was capital gains. Thus operating revenues for the year were up some 150 0 Further growth is expected for 1959. The recent award of the Florida route elimi nates much of the seasonal fluctuation that heretofo re characterized the company. Until this year, a large deficit was perennially shown in the March quarter. It is expected that Florida operations will put the company in the black for the first quarter of 1959, thus ind'- cating earnings for the twelve months,to end March 31, 1959 in the 4.50-5.00 range.Th , the company is in an admirable position to step into the new era of jet transport. The company's jet fleet will be five Douglas DC-8s, the first to be delivered in 19 0 This aircraft will be used on transcontinental and trans-Pacific routes. Intermediate haul will be served by ten Lockheed Electras which will be delivered later this year. Both Loc heed and Douglas have agreed to accept piston-engined craft now owned .by Northwest as trade-ins. Financing for-the new aircraft has already been accomplished. Some 40 milli n of 6 Notes were placed privately. 1 rrillicn was raised from the sale of a 5 1/40/. convertible preferred issue. Each shar of preferred is convertible into 96/100ths share of common. This will result in considerable dilution, but no immediate conversion is ex- pected to take place since the preferred dividend of 1.31 is currently larger than the 0. paid on the common. Meanwhile, growth in population of the cities served, plus economi s afforded by modern aircraft, should continue to spur earnings growth. Another stimulus could be possible award of a New York-San Francisco route now pending before the CAB. From a technical point of view, the stock has an upside obj ective of 65 over the Ion term followed by possible higher levels. Both the common and the convertible preferred, whih provides a more generous yield but sells at a slight premium over conversion A.c t m1Iq!tcr not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed llS, an off i'l not guaranteed as to nccurncy or completeness and the furnlshl M il.l leferrcd to hClein The mformatlOn CCS IS to be construed as, u represent.n- lion y Wnloton & Co. hll' All expreSSlonll of OplTIlOn arc subject to chunge WIthout. notice & Co, 1nc, OfTlcers, Stockholders and thereof, pU1('hase. sell nnd may have nn mterest in the secuntie'1 mentIOned herem ThIS market letter lR Illtended nnd presented mcrely fLS a gcneral mformnl commentary on day to dny market neWS and not a'l n complete analYSIS AdrhtlOnal mformatton WIth respect to any securitIes referred to herem WIll be furTIlshed upon r e q u e s t , ' \\';\ 30l

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - March 06, 1959
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fiLE COPV NEW YORK Walston &- Co. Inc Members New YOk Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ABROAD TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 6, 1959 It is probable that in every major rise in stock market history there has existed a school of theorists who have claimed the rise was unfounded and that perdition was around the corner. Thus,as the market continues to reach new high ground today, sophisticated analysts look upon the rise with skepticism and tend to lean more toward a conservative policy with every new upward surge of the Dow-Jones average. Technical theorists have never held with this approach, preferring to believe,along with the late Samuel Dow,that a trend.once established,tends to remain in force. Anoth r c;orn,e!.s!oneof technicalt!leQry is that hi,sto!'Yhproper1y)nterRreted,pr-qYldes , guide -to probable future events. In this -connection, and in answer to'that school of ana – lysts which fears a rising market, it is interesting to compare the current bull market upswing with similar upturns in the past. Such a comparison was made in our January 16th letter when it was pointed out at some length that, in every year since 1935, the low of the previous December was brcken early in the year or not at all. It was stressed, indeed, that never in those 23 years had the December low been broken after April. As March comes upon us there appears to be little likelihood of the December bottom in any of the averages being pene trated in the next few weeks. Another interesting study can be made dealing with the length and extent of the averf- age bull market. The following table, based on the Dow-Jones Industrials,lists the 14 major bull market ,upswings that have taken place since 1885, together with the number of months they continued and their percentage advance. Close students of the averages may wish to argue with our definitions of a bull market. In general, we have tried to lean to the side of conservatism, i. e., the 1921-1929 bull markets are broken into three phases, whereas many t e continuous upswir g Low 2296..1144 – Date High 74//22//8858 —3937.1.274 Date 5117 N. th 2 – ' – 3 242 .- – – – – – 20.90 8/8/96 56. 94 172 30.92 52.40 11/9/03 7/30/14 110. /co'f;)'1.tJ 27 28 144 110 65. 95 63.90 85.76 135.20 40.56 84.58 92.69 160.62 254.36 41fl.15 8/ 10/2 3 3/30/2 7/8/3 2/26/34 4/28/42 6/14/49 9/15/53 10/22/57 11\6 16 .10 111. 93 195.59 213.36 295.06 524.37 615.77 3/19 3/20/23 2/11/26 9/3/29 2/5/34 3/10/37 5/29/46 1/5/53 4/9/56 3/2/59 23 19 36 39 19 36 49 42 31 15 81 65 92 185 175 131 130 84 106 47 '' '' to date. From the above study a number of conclusions may be drawn. It will be notE d that, so far, the current bull market has lasted 15 months and advanced 470/0. In 14 previous bull markets the average length of time was 30 months and the median length 29.5 months. The average percentage advance was 1110/0 and the median percent advance was 108. The shortest of all bull markets under study was 17 months long and took place prior to the turn of the century. The smallest percentage rise was 320/0 also in the 1890. Measured against these figures it would appear that the current 15-month, 470/0 rise has been extremely moderate. Indeed, if it were to conf.)rm to the average, it would carry to April, 1960 and reach a high of 878. Whether these lofty figures will ce'attained is questionable, but it seems to be a proven fact that bull markets often continue far beyond the expectations of many investors. AWTat EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not, and under no circumstances 18 to be construed U5. an offer to sell or n soitCltatlOn to buy any securities referred to herem The informatIOn ('ontumed herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completcnl!SS nnd the furnishing thereof 18 not, and under no cIrcumstances is to be construed as, a rcpr(!Senta- tlon h) \\'nlston & Co, Inc All e'ICpresslOns of opinIOn nrc subJect to change v,lthoul notIce 'alston & Co, Inc., and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders nnd t-;mIJoyces therrof, purchase, sell nnd may have an mtere'lt 10 the secUrIties mentioned herem, Thl l1!arket letter IS Intendell and presented merely as a general, mformal commentary on ia to da)' market nevo'l! and not as a complete anaiyslb AddLilonailnformatlOn ltb respect to IIny seeuntll.'s referred to herein will be furnJshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\'N 30l

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