Viewing Year: 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 15, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 15, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - March 15, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 15, 1974 – 011 V! ednesjaYRJ ,thJs ,,.e ,.th.Dow;fons .Indu'l.l!.lJ\ve(I,c!ose(La t.Lnv;J1J.gh.Il'yeaa, 891. 66 posting a technical upside breakout indicating an upside objective of 960-970 from our 5-point unit chart. However, it must be noted market breadth short-term is adjusting the market internally from an overbought condition which reached a high of 3227 on our IO-day oscillator on February 27. We would, therefore, expect the market as measured by the Dow-fones Industrial Average to continue to test and broaden the trading area in which it has been contained since the December closing low of 788.31 and its recent high of 891.66 before any major broad-based advance were to occur. Meanwhile, on minor weakness in this potential support area, we feel purchases of individual securities with constructive technical patterns ca n be Justified. We are continuing this week with our review of the current technical patterns for major industrial groups The comments on individual stocks are based solely on technical factors, and further information on all issues are available on request. COPPER – This highly cyclical group has shown strong relative strength and feel Anaconda (27), and Copper Range (28), at current levels appear attractive for purchase. Kennecott (39), and Phelps Dodge (41), are consolidating around current levels and should be watched for possible relative improvement. COSMETICS – Deterioration of this group has been severe. Avon Products (56), has reached initial downside objectives in the low 50-high 40 area. Although downside risk from these levels appears minimal, considerable time will be needed to improve technical patterns. Gillette (40), and Revlon (59), have also broken down and would avoid until patterns clarify. Heavy overhead supply present above current prices. DRUGS – These issues as a group are showing below average relative strength and although there is a wide diversity of patterns, further long term vulnerability is indicated. From a short term point of view, a number of stocks in this group have broken out of short term bases which can be projected into existing – – overhead' supplyo—Would-be-inclined -to' s ell-stocks-in'-this -group-on- trengthtowari0veheadsupply area levels. ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT – General Electric (52), has reached its initial downside objective in the low 50 area and appears to be meeting support at these levels. Time will be needed for pattern to improve in order to penetrate overhead supply present in low 60 area. Westinghouse Electric (22), has undergone a severe correction from its 1973 high reaching its downside objective in the 29-25 area. There is no evidence of improvement in technical patterns over short term. Would avoid. ELECTRONICS – It is hard to survey this group of securities because of diverse individual patterns that exist. There are, however, currently a number of potentially interesting patterns in this industry. The ability of Texas Instrument (108), to break out at 116 on the upside would indicate substantially higher levels, while a penetration of 92 would destroy the existing pattern. Strong support is present in the low lOa-high 90 area. Raytheon (38), recently broke out on the upside indicating a potential move to the 60 area with strong support present in the mid 30' s. FARM EQUIPMENT – Deere (45), and International Harvester (28), both have recently broken out on the upside from short-term base formations indicating 57 and 35 respectively. In both cases support is present under current levels. The ability to reach these objectives should take time as overhead supply is present. Purchases are recommended on minor weakness. FOODS – The related food group has with few exceptions put in at best a neutral performance in relation to the general market. Recent relative strength in the food areas has shown an improvement. Notable examples which we feel can be justified for purchase would include Campbell Soup (36), in the canned food area; Esmark (33), in the meat packing area; and General Foods (28), in the food packaging area. INSTALLMENT FINANCING – The,performance of this group has mixed patterns. Beneficial Finance (22), continues in a clearly defi;)'ed downtrend and 'wotildavoid purchase. CIT (40) ,0 technica-l patterll currently is neutral. Heller International (39), continues to perform well and would continue to hold commitments in stock. MACHINERY – OIL WELL EQUIPMENT – This group has previously turned in an outstanding performance. However, companies such as Halliburton (1581.and Schlumberger (108), have broken out at major top formations on the downside and although they appear to be in the process of forming potential short-term bases which could indicate higher levels, would consider these stocks sell candidates on any strength. Dresser (52), and McDermott (83), have also broken long-term uptrends and are potential sale candidates. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 884.39 S & P Compo (12 00 p.m.) 98.89 Cumulative Index (3/14/74) 639.98 RJS/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No tolement or expression of op,rllon or any olner motter herein contolned IS, or 15 10 be deemed 10 be, dlret1IV or Indirectly. on offer or the sollCltollon of on offer to buy or sell any secuflty referred to or mentioned The maHer IS presented merely for the converlcnce of Ihe subSCriber, While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we 10 no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any action fa be token by the subKrlber should be baJed on hl5 own IOVettlgotlon and mformallon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corpora/Ion, and 1/5 off,cers or employees, may now have, or may later lo).-e, positions or trades In respect 10 any secu(l1les mentioned In Ihl or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its IOveslment adVISOry and olhel customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other luue Further mformollOn on any secuflly mentIOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - March 22, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!i40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe March 22 1974- – – ; ; -……….. — ..- —-..-..;. -……..-.– – -.— … ,-…..-'— –.- ——…o.. We are contmuing this week with our review of the current technical patterns for major indus- tnal groups. The comments on individual stocks are based solely on technical factors, and fur- ther mformation on all issues is available on request. MACHINERY – Group action m the related machinery stocks continues to be mixed. Ingersoll-Rand (87), still looks attractive for the longer term although the short-term pattern appears to be con- solidating in the mid 80 area. Joy Manufacturing (42), in the pollution control area, continues in a long-term downtrend, while short-term improvement indicates a potential move into heavy over- head supply m the high 40 area. Chicago Pneumatic Tool (30), and Cincinnat1 Milacron (34), representative of the machine tools, also continue in major downtrends and should be avoided. MOTION PICTURES – The stocks in this group are all in major downtrends. The two growth favorites in the industry, Walt Disney Productions (51), and Warner CommunicatlOns (15), have formed short-term base patterns indicating potential upside objectlves 80 and 21, respectively. Even at these levels, however, stocks are considerably below their previous h1ghs. For aggressive trading accounts on mmor weakness, we feel purchases can be justified. OFFICE EQUIPMENT – Majority of stocks in this group are in major downtrends. Two exceptions wh1ch we feel look attractive technically are Digital Equipment (ll8) , and Sperry Rand Corporation (42). Recent short-term strength in stocks such as Burroughs (213), and IBM (243), constitute moves only mto existing overhead supply. Do not feel long-term purchases can be currently justified. The software data processing and computer leasing area also looks poor technically and would avoid. . OILS-.The rehning-.maIketing companies. poor priceperformance can obvious ly be ttriQutabte to the energy shortage and the economical and political uncertainty m the Middle East. However, C1ties Service (50), Shell Oil (62) , Sun 0,1 (49), and Standard 0,1 of Indiana (95), look attractive at current levels because .of their representation in domestic oil. Also, 10 the natural gas products group, Canadian Superior Oil (57), and Home Oil (53), look attractive. PAPERS – As a group these 1ssues continue to perform well and on any weakness toward support levels feel purchases can be justified. Downside risk in these stocks appears minimal, and the long-term relative strength remains good. Issues we feel appear attractive mclude Crown Zellerbach (38), Great Northern Nekoosa (48), St. Regis Paper (32), Union Camp (56), and Westvaco Corp. (35). PUBLISHING – This group including newspapers, periodicals, and books continues to turn in a below average performance going back to the early part of 1972. Although downside objectives are beginning to be realized, would continue to avoid purchases untll 1mproving relative strength is present. RADIO-TV – The drastic correction in the broadcasting stocks appears to be near an end. Longterm downside objectlves in a great many of these 1ssues are being reached or have been realized. However, would continue to avoid group as considerable time will be needed to 1m- prove existing patterns. RAILROADS – Long-term group action has improved and feel that at current levels a number of stocks appear attractlve for purchase. These stocks are selling at the lower level of potentlal support areas indicating higher prices. These would include Burlington Northern (43), Norfolk & Western (68) Santa Fe Industries (34), Seaboard Coastline(30) ,-and Southern Pacific.(34). RAILROAD EQUIPMENT – The leader in this group has been Pullman (65), which at current levels should be watched for potential deterioration. ACF Industries (52), and Amsted Industries (46), both look attract1ve at current levels and on minor weakness feel purchases can be justified. RETAILING – The long-term group strength of the department stores remams negative With the exception of Sears (86), which has recently broken out of a short-term base Wh1Ch counts in the overhead supply mto high 90 area and J. C. Penney (72), which counts into the low 80 area. The most improved area in the retailing group is in the food stores. Would suggest possible purchase candidates to include American Stores (32), Colonial Stores (24), Safewav (40), and Wmn- Dixie (43) . Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 873.12 S & P Comp (1200 p.m.) 96.91 Cumulatlve Index (3/21/74) 624.99 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL RJS/jb No statement or eXpreSSion of OpInion or any other motter herein tonte.ned IS, or 15 to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the hc,'otlon of on offer 10 buy or sell cny securtty referred 10 or merotloned The molter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber WI'IIle oNe beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guorontee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude here!n Any action to be taen by the subSCriber should be Ixued on hiS own !nvestlgatlon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and ItI officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, positions or trades In respect 10 any secUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different from any views now Or hereafter eypressed In Ihis or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to tts Investment adVISory and olhel customers !ndependently of any statements made !n thiS or In any other Issue Further !nformatlOn on any security mentioned heHlIn IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - March 29, 1974
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-. – – —- ———, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER –,– ——–' 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE,INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE March 29, 1974 — – – – .Themar,ketdecline,.this weeLasmeasured by tlw Dow-Jones I!gustrialAerage gn(l cDuJlled with the relatively low New York Stock Exchange volume, was, tosay the least,not-une,;pect;d. The DJIA as noted in this letter several weeks ago, broke out of a base formation on the upside indicating a potential 960-970 upside objective. At that time, we were unable to get excited over the possibility of these objectives being immediately achieved. Among the contributing factors were the recent poor daily breadth and the inability of the Dow-Jones Transportation Average to penetrate its old closing high of 202.45 on Jan. 3rd earlier this year. Using Dow Theory, thIS non-confirmation would negate any long term upside move. Within this market framework something is out of keepmg with the established notions of order. This apparent anomaly can be seen in the strength of several technical indicators which reflect constructive long term implications. These would include mutual fund cash as a percentage of total assets at a high level of 9.7 for the month of February, the increase to 1.47 in the short mterest ratio, which measures short interest in relation to average daily volume, and the historically large, untapped buying power of individuals as measured by NYSE brokerage margin account. To sum up, therefore, we feel the market is still digesting the rotation of leadership from the high multiple glamour stocks into the lower multiple commodity-oriented cyclical areas. Withm this structure, we feel another test of the Dec. 5 low of 788.31 is possible. However, we would still construe the trading range from the December low to our recent high as ultimately being a consolidation area of major significance. We complete this week our review of the technical position of major mdustrial groups. The comments on individual stocks are based solely on technical factors, and further information on – – —aU-issues-i,s-avanable-on-request,. – , – –,…,…. ,,. u , – – RUBBER The major tire companies continue to show no relative price improvement and in a great many cases have penetrated their 1970 lows. Would avoid purchases in this group with the possible exception of Bandag (27), which breaks out of potential consolidation area at 33 indicatmg initial upside objective of 52. SAVINGS AND LOANS This group, we feel, because of recent improvement in short term rela- tive strength should be considered for possible purchase. Great Western Financial (18), is in support in the 19-17 area and breaks out on the upsIde at 24. This pattern ig representative of the majority of stocks in this group. SOAPS Both Colgate (26), and Procter & Gamble (93), are in short term uptrends. However, Colgate on strength toward its upside objective of 34 and Procter & Gamble on strength in the low 100 area, would be potential selling candidates as heavy overhead supply is present at these levels. SOFT DRINKS Although Coca Cola (111), and Pepsico (60), have both broken major support areas in the fall of 1973, and although initial downside objectives have been realized, sub- stanhal time will be needed to improve patterns. STEEL Long term patterns of the major steel companies remain constructive. Bethlehem Steel (32), indicates an initial upside objective of the mid 40 area with support present in the 32-30 area. U. S. Steel (43), also indicates substantially higher levels technically and on weaknes-s toward the low 40 area continue to feel purchases can be justified. TOBACCOS Technical position of stocks in this group is mixed. Philip Morris (98) '. has broken -down technically and indicates ,lower -levels. -Would,be mclined to sell commItments on any strength, possibly switching mto Reynolds Industries (44), WhICh appears to have met support in the mid 40 area. UTILITIES This group as measured by the Dow-Jones Utilities Average or Standard & Poors Utilities Average have recently broken down indicating potential moves toward their 1973 lows. In particular, the electric utillhes look lower and though in many cases downside objectives have been reached, would contmue to avoid. The gas-oil pipelines have improved short term and would suggest Kaneb ServlCes (43), Northern Natural Gas (51), and Texas Gas TransmisSlOn (29), for possible purchase. However, do not look to the related utility areas for any major upside moves m the immediate future. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 851.45 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 94.43 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (3/28/74) 604.59 RJS/jb No slotement or expression of opinion or ony other mottcr herem contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 he, directly or indirectly, on offer or the SOllcltallon of on Qffer 10 buy or sell ony security referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presenled merely for the conver'lenco of the subSCriber While oNe belIeve the sources of our Informo lIOn to be relloble, we In no woy represent or guorantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscnber should be based on hIS own investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scoft, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may 10 IeI' lake, posItions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In Ihls or any future Issue, and such poslhon moy be different from any views now or hereafter e)(pressed In Ihls or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whtch IS registered With Ihe SEC as on Investment adVIsor, may give adVIce 10 lIs Inveslmenl adVISOry and othel cvstomen Independenlly of any stalemeflls made In thiS or In any other ISsue Further Informahon on any security mentIoned herein IS available on request —-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 05, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 05, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - April 05, 1974
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————–, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER , ….l 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE – -c……;;;-.,-.- …4o;- — – '–!!'- '-…,…o-AprH . . 5r.–1-974 -…………- -..'i.–.-.;; I Maybe it is only the euphoria induced by a three-week vacation featuring large doses of sun, powder snow and the beauty of Idaho's Sawtooth Mountains. In any case, we think we see some slight improvement in the stock market picture. It is not so much that we are at the moment wildly bullish, but that we are more ready to become bullish — not so much that we think technical work totally p,ecludes a move through the December lows on some averages ,but that we can see some convincing reason for buying into such a decline. Let us try to document this in a bit more detail. The latter part of March featured a rather sharp short-term decline in which the Dow declined from a high of 899.16, on a cloSing basis, to a low on March 29 of 846.68. The downside objective of the top formed in early March had been approx- imately 840, and apparent demand was met in this area as our short-tem oscillator reached an over- sold condition and mild price improvement was seen in the latter stages of last week. It is generally an encouraging sign when minor declines halt at objectives or support levels, and this apparently has been the case with the present one. We now apparently have the opportunity to broaden further the base in the rough 800-900 area which was begun in the latter part of 1973. — As we said above, the question of whether Spring (and this would be a normal seasonal pattern) will see a new low remains moot. The answer, as has been the case with a number of stock market dilemmas over the past couple of years, will be provided by the action of the now-Iargelydiscredfte'drrj'stner g-rowtn'sl6cKs-TI1-ese Issues nave generollysofa-A3rl!a-sr,–been-able-to'– –,- – hold above their recent lows. Were these lows to be penetrated — and it should be noted that short-term patterns tend to suggest the likelihood of such a penetration — another downside move of considerable proportions in these issues could ensue. To what degree the rest of the market would be resistant to such a move is, of course, problematical but in any case, we would expect the bulk of the list to outperform the fading glamours In such an eventuality. The real reason for our feeling that some improvement in the technical picture has taken place lies in the way individual stock patterns seem to be developing. With a few notable exceptions few issues appear to have moved into major uptrends. What has happened, rather, is that in many stocks — perhaps in the bulk of them — downside movement has been replaced by lateral movement. In a significant number of cases downtrend channels going back two or more years have been penetrated,and it appears apparent that a great many issues sometime between last fall and today became thoroughly sold out and reached what are apparently demand levels. Such action does not in any way suggest immediate upmove, but it is nonetheless a precursor to it. It has been suggested in some quarters that the poor breadth action of recent weeks (through Tuesday, five of the last six days when the Dow advanced had more declining stocks than advan- cing ones) is a sign of underlying weakness. This view, in our opinion, uses a valid indicator for an invalid purpose. Poor breadth after a long market advance is interpreted quite correctly as a sign market odfecwlainneing upsIde,momentum andwe-are, at the and,a,clue to moment, not tahnati'mfapreonfdfintghm-arlketofpeaakY.earF-oilolnogwbienagrmaa-mrkaejot,r ,–,.-I- inferior breadth action is a relatively routine phenomenon. Shattered confidence after a market drop tends to be rebuilt slowly and normally flows first into the blue-chIp Issues in the Dow- Jones Industrial Average thus causing the Dow to outperform the general market, often well on into an advance. As we suggested, whether the market lows have yet been seen is problematical, but we would find ourselves uncomfortable in the camp of the ever-more-vocal superbears. Dow-Jones IndustrIals (1200 p. m.) 848.48 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 93.26 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index '4/4/74) 598.01 AWT/jb No statement or epresslon of opinion or any OTher matter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be. directly or indirectly, on offer or the solicitatIOn of an offer to buy or sell onr, security referred to or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the converlenCE of the subKTlber While we believe the sources of our information to be rellob e, we In no way represent or guarantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any ocllon to be token by the subs.crlber should be based on hiS own Investlgollon ond Informatron Jonney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as 0 corporatron, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, poslflofl5 or trades In respect to ony securities menlloned In thiS or ony future Issue, and such POSITion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thu or ony other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC os on Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 Its mvestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any stoTements mode III thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - April 11, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER , -..J 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE , ..,,-. .. Aprll11, 1974 It has been, in a worn, a market-of-iilmcisl-tntrealbl-e tlllllness.TJ1eWeek-began-as'the'prevlous-one had – left off with a sharp decline in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, accompanied by more than a thousand declining issues One would have thought, perhaps, that the stage was being set for yet another precipitous downward move such as the declines of mid-January and early February.'-Yet, despite continuing news of higher short-term money-market rates, the market moved higher in Tuesday's trading and co'ntinued dull for the remainder of the week. The most notable feature of the week probably was the volume or, more properly, the lack thereof. For the past fortnight, daily New York Stock Exchange volume has been running in the 10-11 million share range, a level not seen since a short period in June of 1972 and, prior to that, during the normal period of dullness following the May, 1970, lows. Yet if the NYSE figures appear miniscule, consider American Stock Exchange figures. Volume West of Trinity Churchyard has been running consistently under the two-million share level, a rate about half of the still-depressed trading level of the end of 1973. Quite obviously, the torpor of last week has done little to resolve any of the questions which beset the current stock market. We would like, therefore, to devote our space this week to expanding a bit on some of the thoughts we expressed seven days ago. The general tenor of last week's letter was that (1) we thought there was some degree of likelihood that the market might move lower, and (2) that we thought any such weakness should be used as a buying opportunity. We were, with this pronouncement, doing two separate things, two acts that are often confused in in- vestment thinking. We were — in ltem I above — making a forecast and — in item 2 — suggesting an investment strategy. As we suggested above, it is, we think, lmportant to keep the two processes separate. Quite obVIously, in an uncertain world, forecasts are necessary, and some expectation as to the probability of future price action Is quite certainly a necessary component of any investment plan. Fore- –……o..ca-sting.,howevJI',a;;thoseoLus–'-.Voho have been in the business of sticking our necks out for some period of time are well aware, continues tobe a hazardous -a-;;-d-uncertain art, and; with'an enlbarra-ssirrgdegree 6FI- regularity, forecasts made with all due diligence based on the best avallable data often tum out to be just plain wrong. Strategy, therefore, involves a great deal more than forecasting. It involves the formulation of an investment plan which must allow for what will happen if the forecast on which the plan is based turns out to be totally incorrect. The forecast in last week's letter suggested a market which might move through the previous lows but not to a great degree. This, therefore implied a strategy which involves the maintenance of reserves for the time being but the commitment of those reserves on any relahvely minor down move in the market — to, let us say, the 750 level in terms of the Dow. If the strategy is followed and the forecast turns out to be correct, there is obviously very little problem; the investor who became fully Invested at the 750-800 range will wlnd up with some very attractive purchases. Strategy, however, must focus on the way in which the forecast could go wrong and there are, obViously, two ways in which this could take place. The first, of course, is a market decline greater than the one we now envision, the sort of thing being suggested by the vocal super-hears we mentioned in last week's letter. Were this eventuality to ensue, the investor would find himself 100 committed at the 750 level while the market continued to plummet. Yet, even in this case, it seems to us, the risk would be temporary in nature. The levels at which we are suggesting commitment of reserves would be ones offering incredibly sound fundamental value. It would appear to be totally unwarranted pessimism to suggest that stocks might sell for any great length of time below these levels a 5 anything other than a temporary market aberration. It is the other direction in which the forecast could turn out to be incorrect that. quite frankly. worries us a blt more, for a great many more lnvestment problems would be posed, we would think, were the mar- ket to refuse to move toward or through the December lows and then begin to exhibit some strength. The strategy wehave suggested would then leave the investor maintaining fairly large res'Les Vfhip!t he hC!d refused to commit at lower prices, with the possibility of a major advance staring him In the face. Nor would he be alone in th.s particular dilemma. The current high levels of institutional cash position suggests that the number of poor Grenvilles could be embarrassingly large. In strategic terms, we are willing to put up with the first risk mentioned above and we know of no real answer for the second, except the continuing scrutiny of individual technical patterns and the pattern of the general market. We must reiterate that we see no reason at this point to alter our forecast of some- what lower prices as a working hypothesis for putting together an investment plan. We would certainly, however, be willing to alter it were any evidence of improvement in upside momentum to develop. Dow-Jones Industrials 844.81 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo 92.12 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (4/10/74) 584.74 AWT/Jb No statement or expressllm of opinion or any olher matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlredly or Indlredly, an offer or the ollcltotlon of on offer to buy or sell ony 5ecuflly referred to or menhoned The matter IS presented merely for the conVerlencc of the subSCriber While oNe believe the !.Curces of our Informalion 10 be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any ochon 10 be token by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own investigation ond informatIon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os a corporat,on, and lIS officers or employees, may now hove, or may later toke, pOSitIOns or trades In resF)ect to any seCUrttles mentioned In Ihls or any future Issue, ond such position moy be different fro'T1 ony views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Jenney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 's registered With the SEC 05 on Investment adVisor, mQy give advl(e to Its 'nvestment adVisory and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In th.s or In any other Issue Further onformotlon on ony security mentioned hereon 15 ovailoble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - April 19, 1974
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TABELL-S MARKET LETTER L – – , 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW .JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE .. April 19, 1974 We have examined, in our past two letters, the merits of an attitude toward stock prices more , -posinvehall 'we-have-b'een 'able'to'assurrre-for sometime';-specificaHy;–suggesting,thepossibil-, – ity that the lows of last December may ultimately prove to be an important cyclical turning point. We are, as we have suggested for the past two weeks, still not totally convinced of the conclusiveness of this contention and are not yet willing to base investment policy thereon. Yet a number of arguments in its favor do begin to emerge. Interestingly, a number of these arguments center around the calendar, which, for the first time in many months, is beginning to work in the market's favor. It has never been our thought that seasonal patterns in the stock market should be relied on m toto. Indeed, ironically enough, if reliance on these patterns proves to be correct in the current instance, such reliance will be proved to have been wrong last December. At that time, It was possible to argue that the month's low was not a major bottom, simply because no major low m many years of market history had occurred between December and April. Now, however, seasonal patterns are suggesting that 1973 may be the first instance of just that phenomenon occurring. To begin with, let us consider the historical length of past bear markets. The longest downswing in the postwar experience, that of 1968-70, lasted 18 months. Most of the others have been considerably shorter. If we are still in the bear market which began m January, 1973, it is now 16 months old. The record tends to suggest that time is running out. , – Tn'e' pnenomenon oftfieyei,fterl(rrally,mdth'eDecemberlow-is 'one-;wh,ich'we haveoof-ten ,(lis-,cussed in this space. In 17 of the 48 market years since 1926, the low of the previous December has never been broken. In 22 of the 31 years that the low was, in fact, penetrated, penetration took place in January or February. With only four exceptions such a penetration, if it was going to occur, took place prior to April 26 and two of those exceptions turned out to be temporary aberrations in what was basically an upward market year. The fact that the December lows have, in fact, held as late as the date of the current writing in 1974, must be viewed in a positive sense. The final mteresting bit of calendar evidence is provided by the decennial pattern. We have, ourselves, always been a bit suspicious of this pattern since we can find no particular rationale for it. It IS, nonetheless, on the face of it, persuasive. The 70 market years from 190'0 through 1969, have included 43 advancing and 27 declining ones, with the average advance being 6.5. Yet for some reason, years ending in the digits 4 and 5 have tended to depart dramatically from this norm. Six of the seven years ending in 4, from 1904 through 1964, were advancing ones and five of them produced advances greater than the overall average. The average performance for such years is a 16.71 gain. The pattern for years ending in 5 IS even stronger. All seven of these years produced advances of an amount greater than the 70-year average and the mean performance for the seven years is a 34.42 advance. Based on this theory, at least, we are entering mto what must be conSidered an auspicious portion of the decade. Now,' as we said above, we think total reliance on patterns of this sort IS probably super ficial, and we would want to see the bullish argument confirmed by more persuasive technical evidence as the market pattern develops. We think, however, the factors cited above will provide an interesting background to such evidence should It emerge. i Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 860.92 S&P Compo (l200p.m.) 93.82 Cumulative Index (4/18/74) 593.76 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL No statement or eprCS510n of opInion or any other mOiler herein contolned IS, or 1510 be deemed 10 be, directly or tndlrectly, on offer or the sollc,totlon of on oHm to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the conllel'lence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mforma tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy ihereof nor of ihe siatements mude herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgotlon and Information Jonney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, 0 a corporatIOn, and lIs officers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, pOSlhons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In Ih,s or any future ,ssue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter e…pressed In thl or any other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, whl;h IS registered with the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVice to liS Investment adVISOry and oth(!1 customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS 01 In any other ISsue Further Informollon on any seo;urlty mentioned herem IS aVailable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - April 26, 1974
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1- TABELL-S MARKET LETTER — 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE .-.' – ,,–,',- 'd '' . Apr,il'26,1974,.–w- – All right. We know that we have used the last three issues of this market letter examining the reasons for being bullish about stock price prospects, and we are likewise painfully aware that, starting on the day when we published the last of these effusions, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average proceeded to drop some 42 points before a rally this morning. After 20 years we have be- come thick-skinned enough to be inured to this sort of thing. Besides we can say, in all honesty, that we were not, in the series in question, suggesting the deployment of buying reserves. We were merely examining the conditions under which such reserves might be deployed. So much for excuses. Where do we stand at the moment In terms of the Dow, we have now moved out on the downside of a rather classic short-term head-and-shoulders top formation which suggests various objectives in the range of 800-780. The suggestion is, of course, a test of the December 5 low of 788.31. We have repeatedly stressed, as our readers are aware, the histor- ical significance of this low. We noted last week that on only four occasions since 1926 has it been violated to later than April 26 of the following year. Whether 1974 will prove to be the fifth exception is a rather interesting question. The problem is that, in restricting our discussions to the Dow, we are talking about only a rather small segment of the market. Most indices of first-tier growth stocks continued to plunge to new bottoms well after the DJIA low was made in December, and technical patterns clearly suggest that most of these issues have a fair amount of further room on the downside. Indeed, at least in part due to the weight given growth issues in its construction, the S & P SOO-Stock Gompositewa,a oi..Yg.tElrkY, already at a new 1973-74 low. For this index, ,the bearmart continues. Our own Cumulative Index was, as 'of yesterday 'a mere tWo'points ab6vetfi'e -low….it' – … chalked up on December 24. Part of the reason for the poor performance of the S & P 500 and also of the Cumulative Index can also be ascribed to the fact that a new villain has entered upon the stage, that villain being the utilities. Prior to last week's passed dividend by Consolidated Edison, we thought the market was responding somewhat better to unexpected bad news than it previously had been. The first omitted dividend since 1885 by a large and respected company was evidently, however, a bit more than it was prepared to take. The Dow-Jones Utility Average gapped on the downSide (something we don't ever remember happening, although it may have occurred sometime in the dim, dark past) and plunged from a level of 86.69 last Friday to a close of 78.80 yesterday, a decline of 9 in five days in an index of supposedly non-volatile investment grade issues. It is an interesting, albeit somewhat disturbing fact, that the Dow Utility Average is,at today's prices, at a lower level than at any time since early 1958. As we said above, this has had something to do with the per- formance of the S & P 500 and of the Cumulative Index. The 500 contains 60 utility issues, weighted by capitalization. There are well over 100 utility issues listed on the New York Stock Exchange which are included, on an unweighted basis, in the Cumulative Index. Thus, the fact that these indices are at or flirting with new lows should be hardly surprising. Thus, while admittmg that the short-term prospect for lower prices is a real one, we confess we are inclined to view such a decline with equanimity. While the question of whether the Dow will penetrate the December bottom is an interesting one from an academic point of view, we do not'tlililklt 15 o(overriding-importa-nce–The answer tothe question will,in our view,be determined by whether a severe enough decline takes place in the qrowth issues (and perhaps now in the utilities) to drag the rest of the market down along with it. The whole pOint of our discussions in the last three letters was that we were becoming worried about an investment strategy which con- tinued to stress the maintenance of buying reserves in a market which might not give us the opportunity to commit those reserves at lower prices. On any weakness around or to new lows by the Dow, we think that the commitment of those reserves would be indicated and would ultimately prove to be profitable. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 825.95 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 89.55 DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL Cumulative Index (4/25/74) 554.83 AWT/jb No stotement Qf expreSSion of OpinIon or ony other motter herein contaIned '5, or 1 to be deemed 10 be, dIrectly or 'ndlrectly. on offer or the OIICIIOl1on of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menhoned The mOiler IS presented merely for the converlence of the subscriber 'WhIle we believe the sources of our InfOrmolion TO be reliable, we ,n no way represent or guarantee The accuracy thereof nor of the lIatements mude herem Any ocllon To be token by The SubSCriber should be based on hiS own InveSTigaTion and information Janney Montgomery Seoll, Inc, as a corporaTion, and ITs officers or employees, may now have, or may laTer toke, posITIOns or trades In respect to any secUrities mentIOned 10 thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different from ony Views now or hereafTer erpressed In thIS or any other Inue Janney Montgomery SCaN, Inc, which IS regisTered WITh the SEC as on investmenT adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and olher customers Independently of any statements mode In thIS or In any other luue Further information on any security mentIOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - May 03, 1974
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.———- – ——- I TABELL'S I MARKET LETTER I I 1 —-'1 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE May 3, 1974 After collapsIng a week ago for a very good reason, the Consolidated Edison dividend cut, the market proceeded, on Wednesday and early Thursday, to turn around and retrace a good deal of the ground lost for no apparent reason whatsoever. Indeed, it did so in response to more of the same sort of news that pundlls have been assuring us for the past few months is responsible for the market's malaise. As of this writing, the 10 3/4 prime rate has become more widespread, and an 11 rate already exists in certain quarters. All this, we are assured, is bearish for stock prices although it is seldom made clear why this should be so. Theoretically, one might suppose a high prime rate would produce a high call-loan rate, which would discourage borrowing to finance stock purchases. Yet in fact, stock exchange margin debt has recently reversed its sharp slide of 1973 and begun to edge up somewhat. Most of the recent comment on short-term interest rates has, in our view, been centered around the wrong area, i.e. the level of those rates, and it is indeed true that that level is at its highest point in over fifty years, a fact which, no doubt, lends the rate some news value. A more useful figure for analytical purposes, however, is not the level of short term rates—which, although at a record, is not all that different from where it was in the Spring of 1970 or the Fall of 1973—but its relationship to longer-term money rates, in other words, the shape of the yield curve. The recent situation has been ,- fundame ntatl y d ifferent-from'tha t'of ;-sayc;-luly19-70'-'\ t-thatpoi nt,short- te rmorates7were-r4 si ngdra – –,-1 matically, but only for a short period and by a modest amount did they ever rise above the rate offered by high-grade corporate bonds. By contrast, in the Fall of 1973 when prime commerCial-paper yields, a widely used gauge of short rates,averaged 10.23, seasoned AAA long bonds afforded only a 7.88 return. Roughly the same sort of relationship prevails today. Now there has been some recent disagreement as to Just where the prime rate, and the multitudinous other short-term rates which are tied to it, will ultimately wind up. The president of a large Philadelphia ba nk recently opined that a 12 prime was in the offing, while a major New York City bank suggested that 6 by sometime this summer was a possibility. At the moment, Philadelphia, although tied with New York in ice hockey. appears to be leading it in interest rate prediction. Regardless, however, of the differing opinions of human forecasters, the collective forecast of the marketplace is quite clear. The phenomenon we have at the moment is known as an inverted yield curve, and it has never, in the past, persisted for very long. Normally, the resolution is a return of short-term rates to their normal position below the yield of high grade bonds. In its willingness to lend money over the longer term at rates decidedly inferior to those readily available from short instruments, the market is quite clearly saying that it does not expect short rates in the double-digit range to be a permanent feature of the finanCIal scene. –IInto We the think, lA any case, that, whatever happens present pricestrucfureforcommoostocks– to As the we prime rate, 'suggested this factor has now lA'last week's'letter, beuennlllbui-lt–' Consolidated EdIson came along, the market had been responding well to bad news. Having absorbed Consolidated Edison, it has evidently reverted, for the time being at least, to that pattern of response. Ignoring bad news has long been one of the signals that a market decline is at or past a terminal phase. It will be interesting to see if such turns out to be the case in the present Instance. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 91.62 Cumulative Index (5/2/74) 564.00 AWTed 847.23 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or e)(preSSlon of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe sollCltoTlon of an offer to buy or sell any seCUrity referred to or mentioned The mailer IS presented merely for Ihe convel'ence of the subSCriber. While -lie believe the sources of our mformo han to be rellable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation ond mformallon Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc. 0 a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, poSitions or trades In respect to any secUrities mentioned In Ihls or any future ISUe, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter el'pressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice to Its Investment advlwry and othel customers Independently of any statements made rn thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1974
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,I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE . May 10, 1974 – .-Thre -a-re a–number o-fr sons1or-looti;g–f;rd to–Maychye a'mong'tliem '-thefwering of the — dogwoods in Princeton, New Jersey. To us numbers freaks, however, May's arrival takes on an additional significance. For It brings the issue of Fortune magazine containing ItS statistICal tabulation on the 500 largest U. S. industrial corporations. There is almost no limit to the permutations and combinations of lIgures one can derive from a perusal of this data. One of our own favorite mampulations, with the phenom- enon of earnings growth havmg attamed an almost rellgIOus SIgnifIcance m the financial community, is to cull out the ten companies with the largest 10-year growth In earnings per share. The list almost invari- ably is composed mostly of surprises rather than the familiar billion-dollar growth companies, and this year is no exception. Herewith, then, the ten companies WIth the largest 1963-73 per share earnings growth as computed by Fortune. Return to Rank Return to Rank Investors 1973 in 500 Investors 1963-73 In 500 ITE Imperial -48.42 403 14.86 61 Fleetwood Enterpris es -83.65 483 White Consolidated -51. 00 415 19.14 33 Loews Corp. -53.60 423 24.90 14 Champion Home Builders -76.64 480 New York TImes -26.44 248 Wheelabrator-Frye Clark Oil Tesoro Petroleum Sk-y-l-i-ne-H-omes -39.18 335 -27.01 314 24.36 49 -6-.5.-28-.—461- 5.38 223 27.20 9 22.22 20 20-52–. -..-26 – – As we suggested above, however, the names are not exactly those that the average investor mIght guess were he to attempt to pick the compames with the greatest earmngs growth for the past decade. It must be noted, also, in all fairness, that Fortune's method of computing earmngs growth may be over-simplistic, in that a straIght 1963-73 comparison can be distorted if the 1963 base year happened to be a particularly poor one for the company involved. which IS I in fact, true in some cases above. The most fascinating statistic, however, IS the way the market treated these ten companies m 1973. The second column of the table above shows the return to mvestors for 1973 as computed by Fortune, m- eluding capItal gain or loss, plus dividend mcome, together with its rank in the 500 on this baSIS. Nme of the ten common stocks show a loss, and In each case that loss IS substantial. A 100,000 portfolio equally mvested in the ten compames at the end of 1972 would, at the end of 1973, have shrunk to 55,314 . Over the longer term, however, the lIgures would tend to suggest that the market does recognize true growth. For the seven companies where data was available, six, In fact, showed above average percentage returns over the 10-year period. The average annual percentage return and its rank m the 500 for this perIod is shown in the rIght hand two columns. 10,000 mvested m each of the companies at the end of 1963 would have grown by 1973 to 457,000. We thmk the table demonstrates rather vividly what, to us, are some of the least appealing tendencies in Wall Street's valuation of stocks, the tendency to pay a great deal of attentIOn to short-term, even quarter-to-quarter, earnings changes and the tendency to place premIum multiples on at least some com- panies with above-average past earnings growth. Thus I the presence of three mobile-home companies on the list and the fact that these three represent the three worst performers IS not surprIsing. The mobIle home industy In gen-eralhas shown one of the more astounding grow-th rates in the U. S. economy-over —– the past decade. The market duly noted its appreciation of this fact in 1972 when it valued Skylme at 47 times earnings, Fleetwood at 41 times and Champion at 55 lImes. In 1973, earnmgs growth for all three companies flattened out, and it was VIvidly demonstrated that what the market gives It can take away, the taking away being documented In the stocks' performance. A more rational approach to valuation rmght have prevented the stocks from attainmg the euphOrIC levels they reached In the lIrst place, and lessened the shock when the problems within the mdustry, (which,for all we know,may be temporary) became apparent. Dow-Jones Industrials (200 p.m.) 862.33 S&PComp. (200p.m.) 92.73 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL Cumulative Index (5/9/74) 557.65 AWT/jb Note Comments on indIVIdual stocks are based solely on techmcal factors, and further informatIon on all issues IS available on request. No statement 10 buy or sell or expression of opInion or any other any security referred to or mentioned motler herein lhe motter IS contained presented '5, or IS to be metely for the cdoenevmee'JdI1n0CEboef, directly or mdlleclly, the subsCtlber While on we offer or the soliCitation of believe the sources of our on offer Informa- 110n to be reliable, we In no way represent or guatantee the occl,Irocy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any Oellon to be tolen by the subscriber should be based on hiS own pos,tlons or trades Inveshgollon and Informallon Janney Montgomery In respect to ony seCUrities mentioned 10 thiS or any Scott, future Inc, as a Issue, and csourcphorpaOtilotnl,onanmdoyItsbeoffdicifefersreonrt employees, moy from any views now now have, or may later lake, or hereafter elCpressed In thIS or any other Iue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC 05 on Investment adVisor, may g,ve adVice to lIs IIwestmenl adVisory ond olhel customers mdependently of ony slo/ements made 10 Ih,s or 10 any olher ,Sl,Ie Further Informollon on any secutlty menlloned herein 1 aVailable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - May 24, 1974
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TABELL'S I, MARKET I LETTER I JI 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGe May 24, 1974 – Readers of this letter over the past couple of months will be aware that we had been trying to worLourselves into ,a .more optimisticframe .ofmindabout- the, stock .mal'ket.thanAthad ,beeF1 pos s -….. Ible to assume for some time. The basic reasoning behind this was that, having for some time ad- vocated the maintenance of some amount of cash reserves, we were becoming worried about whether the weakness which would allow those reserves to be committed would ultimately occur. Many of the factors we cited as prospects for possible optimism were so-called background factors, stemming from the fact that all available evidence suggested that there were large amounts of potential equity money sitting on the sidelines and that any favorable development, the most obvious one being a drop in short-term interest rates, could return this money to the stock market with explosive force. The prices which existed when the market held relatively firm throughout April and early May, however, were evidently not attractive enough to entice this sideline money. Starting two weeks ago, a sharp plunge to a new lower price level took place,with the Dow, which dropped for seven straight trading days through Wednesday of this week, having gotten within an ace of Its December low of 788.31. A sharp rally on Friday morning improved the picture somewhat and, once more, for the time being at least, the previous low has held. The Dow, however, is the only average still remaining tenuously above its prior bottom, almost every other major index hav- lng, on the recent decline, moved into new low territory. Along with this drop, a number of disappointing technical developments can be cited. For a while, at least, the market was showing a fairly healthy ability to resist bad news. The prime rate, ostensibly the market's major worry, was actually above where it had been last December when the Dow last bottomed, and yet stocks had been holding considerably above that low. This I –re5lstante to'l5ad news -eviderrtlyfetmIMtedwffntheConEaTIOn debacle; fo'rlnce 't!ITin-;-t/je' — market has resumed its familiar bear-market tendency to seize upon even modestly bad news Items as an excuse for havoc. The well-advertised problems of Franklin National Bank have created a run, not on banks, but on the stocks of practically every major financial institution, not only banks, but insurance and loan companies. The phenomenon of rotational collapse, where, one after the other, new stocks get clobbered by unfavorable comments or earnings news, has returned with a vehemence equal to that of the spring of 1973, as holders of such issues as Combustion Engineer- Ing and Research-Cottrell must now be painfully aware. Perhaps more disturbing is the advent of potential price vulnerability in issues which had, throughout 1973, been leaders on the upside. Notable examples of this sort of thing are the oil and electrical equipment industries. Weakness has also manifested itself in such industries as copper and aluminum, although here we suspect It is going to turn out to be relatively minor in nature without destroying the favorable long-term patterns which most of these issues still possess. It will, nonetheless, as is almost the case with short-term downtrends, be disquieting while it is taking place. Likewise disappointing has been the failure of many technical indicators which had reached moderately bullish positions in March and April to move into maximum bullish territory. Typical of this class of indicators is the short-interest ratio, which had reached a moderately bullish 1.82 in April (1.95 or better las m the pastbeen a signal for major bottoms), but declined in May to 1.41, a positive but not wildly optimistic reading. Obviously ,then, there are disturbing factors inthe present day.picture. Certainly.ifthe ban- ing system is about to collapse, for example, the equity market is not the place to be while the collapse is taking place. As we have pointed out in the past, however, profitable buying oppor- tunities have historically occurred when the market 'was discounting developments which ultimate- ly failed to take place. In most times and in most places, it has been profitable to bet against the apocalypse. On this theory, we would be willing to commit reserves if the decline were to move through the December lows on the Dow and continue on Into the 700's. Were this to happen, it would, of course, create a typical confusing and disquieting market atmosphere. We believe, however, that purchases made in such an atmosphere would ultimately turn out to be well-bought indeed. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 811.40 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 87.91 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (5/23/74) AWT/jb No statement or expre!on of op,nion or any other motter herein contOlned Is, or IS to be deemed to be, directly Of ind,rectly, on offer or the sol,cltot,on of on offer 10 buy han to or sell cny security be reliable, we In referred no way 1re0porersmenetntoior ngeudaraTnhteemothileerac1cuprraecsyenttheedremoferneolyr for the convel'lenc of the subscrIber While oNe believe the sources of our tnformaof the statements mode heretn Any action to be ta!.;en by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Informollon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and lIS officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, pOSitions or trodes In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thl5 or any future Issue, and such POSitIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter epressedhi thiS or any other Issve Janney Montgomery SCOll, Inc, which IS registered With Ihe SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advISory and aT el customers Independently of any statemenTS mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS avoiloble 01'1 request

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