Viewing Year: 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 04, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 04, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - January 04, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCI( eXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe ror January 4, 1974 somE'-years no;;we'lfilve'tU1I!ea lhe'Iamillarse-a'sonal lenden-ey -of 'th-estock market tostage-ayear-end rally, and it has been the custom of this letter around the New Year to point out some of the conclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon, We have suggested that an exhaustive study of chart patterns since the Dow-Jones Industrial Average first was computed in 1897 indicated that such a rally, however miniscule, invariably had taken place. A number of interesting facts about the market action of the year-end may be noted. (1) – As stated above, an identifiable year-end rally has taken place in every year since 1897. This rally often has been of great magnitude with advances as great as 28 having been recorded. It also, on occasion, has continued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. How- ever, on other occasions, it has been of only a few days' duration, reaching a top extremely early. Thus, in 1960, 1962, 1970, and, most recently, in 1973, the rally reached a peak in the first week in January. In 1961, 1964, 1967, and 1971, it continued into February or March. (2) – There has been a perSistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up, and late in years when the market has been down. ' In recent upward years, 1959, 1963, and 1967 are examples, the rally commenced from early December. In 1962, 1966, and in 1969, it began late in the year. If the rally this year started on December 5, 1973 will be an exception. (3) – The important thing to watch in cam ection with market action in the early months of the new year is the low for the previous December. This low has been broken in forty-four years out of the past – .,.seventy-three. H-owever,,–ln twenty.,six. oftheseforty-fourca ses.,,, itwa sbroken.-in Ja nuaroY,,a nd-February. Since 1937, it has never been broken later than mid-March, with the single exception of 1965. Thus, if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2 1/2 months of the year, chances become good that this low will not be broken. For example, in 1969, 1970, and 1973, the December low was broken early in January. In1963, 1964, 1967, and 1971, and, most recently, 1972, it never was broken, 1965, as noted above, was unusual with the December, 1964 low of 850.19 being broken in June when the Dow reached an intra-day low of 832.74. (4) – In years when the December low has been broken, the subsequent trend has been downward two- thirds of the time. 1962, 1966, 1969, and 1973, of course, are typical cases. Again, 1965 was an ex- ception. 1970, of course, was a down year in the first half. d- (5) – The magnitude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an advance of 10 or more from the December low has been followed by an upward or neutral market in thirty-one of the thirty-six years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10 from the December low before an identifiable correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in twenty-five of thirty-seven years. 1963, 1964 and 1971, the year-end rally approximated 10, and in 1972 it was 17. In 1962, 1970, and 1973, for example, it was less than this figure. (6) – The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year also is important. For example, in nineteen years the rally continued into March or later. In seventeen of these nineteen years the eventual trend was upward. In 1964 and 1972 the year-end rally continued into March and in 1961, 1963, 1967 and 1971 into February, TJ1fs- year;- therefore;tlie-previousDeceiiiberciosing low of 788.3 i becomes an import-;nt -ref'e-re-n-c-e—-. point to watch. On Thursday of this week the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at 880.69. The fact that this average has already advanced 10 must be viewed constructively. If the rally continues into February or March, historically a good market year would be indicated. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) S & P Compo (1200 p. m.) 98.85 Cumulative Index (1/3/74) 604.191 RJS/jb 873.92 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expreulon of opinion or any otner motter herein tonlo,ned IS, or 1110 be deem!!d 10 be, directly or mdlrl!c'!ly, an offer or the 501lcllollon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The mCl1ler 15 presented merely for The corWCr,cnce of the subscrober While -He be!leve the sources of our Inforr'n,,- tlon to be reliable, we In na way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements ml,lde herem Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own investlgotlOn and Information Janney Monlgomery Scott, Inc , as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, POSitions or trades In respect to ony secUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion moy be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scat!, Inc, whlch IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment odvisory ond other customers Independently of any statemenu mode In thiS or In ony olher Issue FUr1her ,formollon on ony security mentIOned herem 1 avolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 11, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 11, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - January 11, 1974
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0—————————————————— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OB540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – — – – —- .- -; 7- ..- ..- – – … Januaryl.l/;;1974…, — .- If the wild gyrations which ushered in 1974 constitute any indication of the sort of stock market we are going to have, 1974 is, perforce, gOing to be quite an exciting year. We started out by enjoying the year-end rally — and with a vengeance. From a Christmas Eve low of 814.81, the Dow forged ahead to reach a closing high of 880.69 on 1974's second trading day. This constituted an advance of over 10 from the early December low of 788.31, a phenomenon which, as we suggested in last 'week's letter, has historically been a bullish one. In the current instance we would prefer to await additional evidence before stating that such was definitely the case. Having thus displayed extraordinary vigor on the upside, the market then did a 180-degree pirouette. A few days of consolidation were followed by a sharp drop beginning on Tuesday of this week, and the average wound up the week having retraced about two-thirds of the December-January rise. Despite the wide swings in both directions, we see no reason at this stage to change our forecast as to the shape of the 1974 stock market year. That forecast it will be recalled, called for strength in the early part of the year followed by a move to around and quite possibly through the previous lows with a true bottom to occur sometime in the spring. Such a pattern still appears to have a high degree of plausibility. We do not, however, think the recent decline is necessarily the start of the future weakness we anticipate. To begin with, it is possible to read higher objectives near term for at least some of the major indices. The Dow, for example, has readable upside objectives in the 920-930 range, and it has re-, -,turned to reasonabl-y good support atcurrentlevelrhepat-ternsGf-theeaiita-I-weighted -indiees-;sueh ,-, as the S & P 500, are considerably less impressive. That indicator has very little in the way of a readable upside potential and runs into heavy overhead supply just above current prices. The same is true of the similarly-constructed New York Stock Exchange Index. That this should be the case is hardly surprising. The latter two indices are heavily biased in favor of the former first-tier growth stocks, and it is this bias, no doubt, that accounts for their relatively inferior patterns. It is with these issues, actual-Iy, that the real tale of the stock market's action over the past two to three weeks lies. The dismantling of the two-tier market has now reached a point where the momentum generated by this process is becoming inexorable. In one sense, actually, the two-tier market has not been dismantled. The tiers have simply been reversed. The high p/e, growth favorites of a year ago have now, almost without exception, broken down from top areas of massive proportions, and the downside momentum that many of them have built up is indeed fearsome. To those of us familiar with the dynamics of stock market processes, it appears unlikely that the corrections in these issues will end either very soon or at prices very close to current ones. Not only is the vulnerability in these issues maSSive, the time span before any appreciable recovery takes place could also be great. It is a time, however, when the diversity of individual stock patterns is astounding. At the same time that the deterioration in former glamor' issues continues, large numbers of stocks, notably in the commodity and natural resource areas ,possess highly constructive patterns suggesting considerably higher.pricesoyer.the.long,term .It!ls.ampng.these.lssues.that.recentkupstde ,leadership ha s developed, and-,.. we would expect this to continue to be the case in any near-term advance whlch might eventuate. We would also expect such issues to be relatively resistant to any weakness which might later develop on the downside. The first half of 1974, in sum, shapes up to be a period when stock selection will be of cntical im- portance. This is, of course, always the case, but we suspect It will be true, doubled and In spades, in the months ahead. Dow Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 828.80 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 92.80 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIE LD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (1/10/74) 585.907 AWT/jb No statement or e)'preSS10n of opinion or any other molter herein tontoH\ed IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or IndHectly, on offer or the soliCitatIon of on offer to buy or selJ any security referred 10 or mentioned The moiler 1 presented merely for the conver'lenct of the subscrIber WhIle -Ne believe the sources of our Informa tlon 10 be reliable, we m no way represe.,1 or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mllde herein Any action to be token by Ihe subscriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and mformotlon Jonney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a carperolton, ond Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, posilions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such paslilon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In th,s or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which ,s registered With Ihe SEC as on Ifwestment adVisor, may give odvlce to Its Investment ad'o'l5ory cnd clhel customers Independently of any statements mode In thl or In any other Issue Further Informotlon on ony security mentioned herein IS ovolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 18, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 18, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - January 18, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE January 18, 1974 As twenty years of experience has made us painfully aware, forecasting the stock market is a hardgus hu.stness. Qcsionally );he..taskJs madedo.ubly difficult. Thereare often.timesLwhen ,in …., addition to figuring out where the market is going, it is necessary to devote fairly intensive scrutiny to find out where it has been. The last six months or so constitute a perfect example of a period for which Just such is the case. Date DnA Chg. S & P 500 Chg. Cum. Index Chg. 8-22-13 10-26-73 12- 5-73 1- 3-7' 1-10-74 1-\7-74 851. 90 987.06 15.9 788.31 -20.1 880.69 11. 7 823.11 – 6.5 872.16 6.0 100.53 116.38 92.16 99.80 92.39 97.30 15.8 – 20.8 8.3 – 7.' 5.3 652.19 749.77 561. 90 614.62 585.90 610.11 15.0 -25.1 – 9.' 4.7 4.1 HIgh made January 7. 1974 The table above shows the levels of three averages, the Dow-Jones Industrials, S -& P 500 and our own Cumulative Index, which it will be recalled, is an unweighted index of all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, at six significant benchmark dates during the past half-ear. The first of these dates is August 22, 1973, which was the starting date of the market advance that preceded the recognition of the energy crisis. As can be seen, for the period beginning on August 22 and ending October 26, all three indices posted identical 15 advances. The sharp decline which then ensued to the lows of early December chopped some 20 off both of the widely-followed averages and constituted the sharpest drop for such a short period in recent stock market history. The fall taken by the average stock, as shown by the pumulative Index, was even worse, that index losing, over the six-week period, more than one–juaner of its-value.oc W-e then had theunusually strong year-end rally whIGh-peakedout.on,January.3 , 1974, and at this pOint an interesting fact began to manifest itself. The Dow advanced on that rally considerably more than did the S & P 500, moving up 11. 7 vs. an 8.3 advance in the more comprehensive index. Interestingly, for that period the Cumulative Index also outperformed the S & P, posting a9.4 advance and extending its rally to January 7, two days beyond the peak in the other averages. On the decline to January 10, the Cumulative Index was the star performer, declining far less than the Dow or the S & P which again turned in the worst performance. For the rally through yesterday the S & P again posted a relatively Inferior advance. To / From 8-22-73 10-26-73 12-5-73 1-3-74 1-10-74 Change Dr sp Cum DJ SP Cun DJ SP Cum Dr SP Cum Dr SP Cum 10-26-73 12- 5-73 1- 3-74 1-10-74 1-17-74 15.9 15.8 15.0 – 7.5 – 8.3 -13.8 -20.1 -20.8 -25.1 3.4 – 0.7 – 5.7 -10.7 -14.2 -18.0 11.7 8.3 3.4 – 8.0 -10.1-16.6 -20.6 -21.8 4.4 0.2 2.3 – 3.2 – 6.5 -U.6 -16.4 -18.6 10.6 5.6 9.4 4.3 .8.6 – 6.5 – 7.4 – 4.7 – – 1.0 – 2.5 – 0.7 6.0 5.3 II I 4.1 The table above shows the percentage change in each of the three indices for all of the benchmark dates mentioned above to each subsequent benchmark date, the starting date being shown acros s the column headings and the end date down the rows. As the first set of columns shows quite clearly, the investor in stocks In the Dow has tended to outperform other Investors since last October. At the December low he had posted only a 7 1/2 loss of his capital since August, and, as of early January and today, he is actually ahead of where he was at the August lows, while the other Indices still show losses. Since December as the right-hand 'figures show, the Cumulative Indexhas turned in an improving'relative-e– performance. It Is now 8.6 above its December lows and Is the closest of the three indices to posting a new high for 1974. All of the above number crunching is, we will be first to admit, nothing more than past history, but we do think it offers a number of clues to the market's current state. As we have suggested in the past, we think the relatively poor performance of the S & P 500 is no accident and is attributable to the relatively heavy weight in this index of the high p/e,growth issues with their continuing vulnerable technical patterns. To us, perhaps the most significant fact is the recent improvement in the action of the Cumulative Index. This suggests a somewhat firmer undertone in the market than the other averages have perhaps so far indicated. Such action, it seems to us, if continued, could only be interpreted con- structively. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 860.85 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p. m.) 96.17 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (1/17/74) 610.113 AWT/Jb No Slalement or expression of opinion or any olher matter herein contOlned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dlrec1ly or Indirectly, on offer or the Sollcllotlon of on offer to buy or self any security referred to or men1ioned The motter IS presented merely for the conver!enc of the subSCriber Whde oNe believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be taen by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Jannev Montgomery Scott, inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toe, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any hlture ISsue, a'1d suc pmltlO'1 moy be ddferent from any views now or hereafter eyp'essed In thiS or ony ather Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whJCh IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 Its Investment adVISOry and Olhel customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS ovallable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 25, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 25, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - January 25, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER '.- 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE Jal-lUary 25, 1974 – – The -mar,ket as measured by ,the Dow Jones- Industr-ial Average;c continues' to fluctuate-ina tange . , bounded by the support offered by the December base at 840-820 and the year-end rally high of 880. The lateral nature of trading is underscored by the fact that on Thursday, of 1766 issues traded, only 21 made either new highs or new lows for 1973-4. As we have stated in the past, we feel the resolution of this im- passe may be on the upside but continue to have some doubts about the validity of any ensuing advance. As the averages move sideways, individual stocks are beginning to present interesting investment di- lemmas. For over a year now, this letter has made no secret of its general bias against relatively high- priced growth favorites and in favor of supposedly cyclical, commodity-related companies. This bias has been based on both technical and fundamental grounds, the technical ones being that most of the first- tier issues, at some time in 1973, initiated major downtrends by breaking down from distributional areas of some significance. The fundamental grounds centered around the fact that the price being paid for basic earning power of cyclical companies, in our view, was ridiculously low, both on an historical basis and in comparison with the much higher prices being paid for growth issues. As technical patterns develop, it is interesting, however, to note that a great many growth stocks have in the past couple of months ceased to decline and begun to move in lateral trading ranges, If these ranges are penetrated on the upside, fairly substantial short-term moves ight ensue although it must be empha- sized that in no case would the major downtrend be destroyed, and any rally follOWing upside breakouts from these potential bases would, in most cases, provide a selling opportunity, Since the patterns are fairly uniform, we have tabulated below the statistics on eleven growth favorites showing, in the first three columns, the 1973 high, a recent price and the percentage decline from the high of 1973, The next two columns show the level at which the stock would break out of its recent trading range on the upside and what the upside objective would be were such a breakout to be achieved. It will be noted that in no case do-theseobj ectives-exceed-the -19-73 -highs-and-insome-cases,are-cons iderablyebelow-those 'highs.-The— – — final column shows the downside breakout level for the recent trading ranges. Were these new lows to be attained, all of the above, of course, would become nothing more than mere theorizing. 1973 High Recent Decline Uaside Bkout Upside Obi. Downside Bkout Avon Products 140 61 -56 68 80-92 50 Burroughs 252 196 -29 214 235 168 Coca Cola 150 121 -19 130 135-150 112 Disney 122 45 -63 50 72 35 Eastman Kodak 150 III -26 118 140 100 IBM 360 247 -31 260 300 220 Int'l. Flavors 50 41 -18 42 46 32 McDonalds 76 56 -26 60 76 44 Polaroid 142 80 -43 82 108 66 Sears Roebuck 122 89 -27 90 98-104 78 Xerox 170 ll8 -31 130 142 106 The patterns for the commodity-related companies, the bulk of which have been in uptrends extending as far back as two years, are considerably less uniform. Some industries, steel for example, show no sign whatever of technical deterioration. Stocks in others, such as aluminum, have potential short-term dis- tributional patterns with the downside breakout in the case of Alcan (36) being 35, with an objective of 30- 27 and Alcoa (73) 68 with a possible downside target of 58. Even were these downside breakouts to take place, long-term uptrends would not be destroyed. Paper issues in most cases have already reached short- term downside targets and appear to be attempting to rebase around current levels. In some cases such as chemicals, thecpicture within the industry is mixed,-Monsanto'55) which'recently declined from a'1973 high of 75 has reached its downside objective and has already formed a fairly substantial base. Allied Chemical (45) by contrast, has violated a short-term top with a possible downside target in the middle 30' s,but this, again, would constitute nothing more than a return to proven support levels. It should be emphasized again that the possible short-term market change in leadership cited above is at the moment only potential, and there exists no indication that the major downtrends in the growth issues or the major uptrends in the cyclicals are about to be reversed. We do, however, feel that the possibility of short-term strength in growth stocks and some minor weakness in basic industry companies is one that is raised by present technical patterns. Note The above comments are based largely on technical factors. Further information on companies mentioned is available on request. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 858.78 S&PComp. (l200p.m.) 96.55 ANTHONY W. TABELL Cumulative Index (1/24/74) 609.36 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWT/jb No statement or epreulon of Opinion or ony other motter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on oHer or the solicllotlOn of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the corwerlence of the subSCriber Whde ….e believe the sources of our Informa tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of th(! statements mude herein Any action to be tak(!n by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its offlCl'rs or employees, may now hove, or may later lake, posilions or trades In respect to any scuntles mentioned In tlus or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter eypressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, tnc , whlen IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to lIS Investment advls.ory and otnel customers Independently of any uatements made In thts or In any other Issue Further information on any secvroty mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - February 01, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE —Last-;eebYci larg';,c;o;;-tinedthe rent paftern 'of lack!!t;;Jit97i;–lopoint act -. -k vance on a fairly healthy increase in volume wiped out earlier losses on Wednesday, but this was unable to hold, and the week ended with little change in most indices. Thus the market remains, for the time being, on dead center,but it is, in our view, approaching a fairly critical Juncture, one which could go a long way toward indicating what to expect for the first half of 1974. Many commentators seem to feel that the impelling force for an eventual move in either direction will be some sort of news event. We have in the past confessed our impatience with this sort of thinking, and we suspect that that impatience will be tested in the coming months, if for no other reason than the fact that there exists, at the moment, a record number of developing news stories to serve as a convenient rationale for explaining the market's behaViOr. Watergate, impeachment, the energy shortage, the posturings of the Arab states and international monetary developments all will no doubt be used in coming weeks to provide excuses as to why the market is behaving as it is. We much prefer, as market technicians, to view the present dilemma in technical terms, and we feel its ultimate resolution in those terms will be a great deal more clear-cut. Today's stock market can be understood in terms of three historic benchmark dates. The first of these is January II, 1973, on which day the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its all time high of 1051.70. The second is December 5, 1973, eleven months later. By this time, the Dow had declined to a closing low of 788.31, down 25 from its earlier high — a decline that was pretty much of a continuous phenomenon, interrupted 'only by a fairly dynamic rally in August, September and October ,.,.a ndoonewhich.,in.histor,ica lter.ms.,,,,cel;talnly..qualafies,,,for ,thea ppela tion maJorbear .,., market. The third benchmark date of importance is January 3, 1974, at which point the year-end rally from the aforementioned December low topped out at 880.69, after an advance of ll. 72, which qualifies as a rise of intermediate-term proportions. Now, it is possible to describe the 1973 bear market by a mathematically-constructed trend- line. This line starts at a base of approximately 975 in January, 1973, and declines at the rate of approximately 0.42 pOints per trading day. Its current level is about 863, a pOint fairly close to where the market is at the moment. It is also possible to measure the variability about this line. If we draw parallel lines 76 points above and below the trend line itself, we have a channel that contains almost all of the fluctuations of the Dow from January, 1973 to date. It is likewise possible to utilize exactly the same process to describe the rally from December 5, 1973, through January 3, 1974. This trendline starts from a base of 805 and rises at a fairly steep rate of 2.40 points per trading day. The variability about the line suggests that a trading channel 34 pOints on either side of it should contain most of the fluctuations of the Dow. Now, it is obvious that these two channels, one descending at a very slow rate and the other rising at a relatively fast one, must ultimately converge and, indeed, the trend lines themselves have converged already, the basic trendline for the intermediate uptrend now being some 40 pOints higher than for the major downtrend. It will be, however, a while before the lower part of the uptrend channel moves through the upper limit of the downtrend channel. That event will occur sometime during the last week in February. At the week's close, the Dow had moved below the intermediate term uptrend channel, al- tlfough not'by qU1te-enough'to call'the'penetration decisive .. In any case;–however;'the'situation'— will shortly be resolved. EIther the uptrend channel will be decisively violated on the downside, strongly suggesting that the market remains in the grips of the major downtrend which has been in effect for thirteen months, or it will continue to a point where that downtrend channel will be decisively penetrated. Were such a penetration to be accompanied by other favorable technical Signals, a vastly improved market climate for 1974 could be foreseen. The ultimate resolutlOn of this technical impasse will, in our opinion, provide a more valuable clue as to the probable future course of the market than random news events. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 846.17 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 95.57 ANTHO NY W. TABELL DEALFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (1/31/74) 614.41 AWT/jb No statement or expreulon of opinion or any other maHer herem contOined IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or ,nd,rectly, an offer or Ihe soitcltatlon of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentIOned The mOllcr IS presented merely for Ihe converlenc of the subscriber While -Ne bellev!! the sources of our InformatIOn 10 be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action 10 be toen by the SUbSCflber should be based on hiS own InvestigatIOn and Informotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, Of may later toe, pOII,ons or hades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSIlon moy be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue JO'1ney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe 10 IS Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any slotements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any sectHily mentioned herem IS aVailable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - February 08, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE — — …. –..- …. …….—!i!'-…….., —.- … '- — ..-,; …….—- February 8, 1974 Part of our routine activity in observing market action each week consists of compiling a list of securities which have built fairly substantial potential base formations. The securities on this list have, in general, a number of common factors. First, they remain within the confines of bases which have not yet been penetrated on the upside. Secondly the upside objechves of those base patterns generally suggest price objectives substantially above current levels. Our latest tabulation of this type contains a total of 94 stocks, and one of its interesting facets is the industry representation. In the present instance, the 94-stock list contains 7 rails,S steels, 4 textiles, 4 foods and 10 companies either in the oil or natural gas transportation area. These 7 industries, in other words, comprise almost one-third of the total list which has, in turn, been culled from a master list of 1607 companies on the New York and American Stock Exchanges. The character of these industries, says, we think, a great deal about today's stock market since one quality they all have in common is fundamental cheapness. The following table shows the January 30th level of the Standard and Poors industry index for each of the industries in- volved, and the estimated 1973 earnings for that index together with the price/earnings ratio. The next column shows the year the index last sold at a lower price/earnings ratio, and the last column shows the highest price/earnings ratio at which the industry has sold since 1946. 1973 S&P Index Earnings-E Year Last Sold High PiE at this PiE Since 1946 Rails 42.71 4.56 9.4 1966 stee' -'-7-6r–6.47— '74- 1957 17.9(1961) 24.rT1962)— Textiles 44.54 6.89 6.5 1950 29.6 (1971) Foods 64.43 5.15 12.5 1953 27.8 '1961) Natural Gas 111.78 10.91 10.2 1970 22.2 (1959) 011 140.04 16.04 8.7 1954 17.1(1958) The results are interesting. Textiles, for example, have not sold at a price/earnings ratio lower than the current one since 1950 and foods since 1953. The peak valuation of earnings was 4 1/2 times the current one for textiles, 3 1/2 times for steels and at least twice as great for all of the other industries mentioned. Now, a low price/earnings ratio was accorded a great deal more importance back In the dark ages of the 1950's,when we first engaged in the securities business, than it is today. At that time we ourselves often derided the emphasis that a great many analysts placed on it, suggesting that there had to be more to security analysis than the mastery of long division. Now the emphasis has changed. According to the ardent advocates of the growth school, all that is now necessary to become a competent analyst is mastery of the nuances of a compound-interest table. It is the compound-interest school, in fact, that would probably find little exciting In the above industries for the reason that they are not generally regarded as growing ones. Nonetheless, as the final column of the table shows, quite rational investors dId, at one time or another In the not- too-distant past,regard earnings in these industries as being worth a good deal more than the price placefromat which those same earnings are today available. The interesting factor, we think, is the fact thaTthe tnd-U'STries-were-drawn Tn–the -first alist ofstocks-'which hadsom; attractlon– from a techmcal pOint of view. Our own biases have always leaned to the combination of sub- stantial technical potenhal and fundamental cheapness. We think that combination exists In a good many areas today. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S&P Compo (l200p.m.) 92.79 Cumulahve Index (2/7/74) 597.39 AWT/jb 823.53 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No statement or expreulon of opinion or any other motter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, dtrectly or Indirectly, en offer or the ollcllotlon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentIOned The molter IS presented merely for the conve,enct of the subscriber While we believe the Ources of our Informahan to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the occurocy thereof nor of the statemenls mude herein Any aellon to be token by the subflber should be based on hIS own investigation and information Jonney Montgomery Seott, Inc, as 0 corporotlon, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, POSitiOns or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItIon may be ddferent from any vIews now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh,ch IS registered With the SEC os on investment odvisor, moy gIVe adVice to Its Investment odvlsory and othEl! customers Independently of ony statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further informatIOn on any security mentIOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - February 15, 1974
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, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEM8EA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE -.–I–'-,,,,,,,,-,,,,—- …o. -'-' n'–.'- ''e15ruary r5-r9-74—' – In a familiar blue-Monday trading session, the stock market plunged to new lows in the initial trading session of last week, moving significantly below the previous bottom whi ch had been es- tablished in early December of 1973. At its lowest levels of last week, the market was lower than it had been at any time since a few days around the bottom posted in November of 1971. The previous point that stocks had traded at a lower level was on the initial rally of the 1970-73 bull market in the late Fall of 1970. Now we are well aware that there are those, confirmed watchers of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, who will immediately take issue with the above paragraph. For, in fact, in terms of the Dow, the market did not, last week, move below its December 5th low of 788.31. Monday's close was 803,90 and the latter part of the week saw SOme improvement, albeit in a rather des- ultory fashion. In addition, our Cumulative Index was, at the beginning of the week, well above the bottom it had posted last September. If, however, we are willing to accept the broad-based Standard & Poor's 425-stock Industrial Index,or the SOO-stock Composite as true measures of the general market, our opening statement is, in fact, perfectly true. The December 5th lows for the two indices were 103.37 and 92.16, respectively. The comparable Monday closing figures were 100.83 and 90.66. These figures compare in turn with November, 1971 lows of 99.36 for the Industrials and 90.16 for the Composite. The above, in our opinion, is something more than just an idle statistical exercise. We think, 1 .–E.y contrast,–!hat the ,!;bove numbers rather nicely encapsulate what has really been taking place –in the equity rriarkt over 'the pilsi-Iew weeks. We'lfave poInted-Out mirriytlmesilill1e'jm-S't 'that- — the Standard & Poor's indices are weighted more heavily in favor of the billion-dollar growth stock favorites of 1972 than is the Dow, and this discrepancy is even truer of the comparison be- tween the S&P indices and our Cumulative Index,which gives equal weight to every New York Stock Exchange-listed issue. The contrasting performance of the two indices, in other words, neatly underscores the fact that the leaders of the downside parade have been growth issues, while the rest of the market, if not exactly in robust health, has managed to stave off utter collapse. This fact is further highlighted if we look at the list of new lows for Monday and Tuesday. The list is relatively small (a point we will return to later), but it reads like an honor roll of last year's growth favorites. Such names as Avon Products, Clorox, Coca Cola, Eastman Kodak, Eli Lily, Pepsico, Ponderosa, Procter & Gamble, Searle, and Tropicana, once the darlings of the one-decision school of investment, are conspicuous by having posted 14-month lows. In a number of cases, the dismantling of the first tier has assumed blockbuster proportions, as wit- ness a Simplicity Pattern managing to lose half its market value in two trading days. The old saw about the optimist seeing the glass half-full and the peSSimist seeing it as half- empty IS applicable in many ways to today's stock market. The peSSimist can point quite rightly to the utter devastation taking place among growth issues, calculate the billions of invest- ment values being lost due to the huge capitalizations of these issues, and conclude, with some justification, that the present market situation is, in fact, utterly chaotic. The optimist can, on the oth-er hand-;-ctraw comfort from the observation that the growth-stocks have'managed to move off the bottom of most charts without, so far at least, taking the rest of the market with them, The phenomenon of 53 new lows on Monday and 66 on Tuesday, days when both S&P 10- dices were effectively trading at their lowest levels of the past 27 months, is, in fact, a unique and lOteresting one. It is here, we think, the battle will be joined, a nd our vle;s on the future of the growth stocks, as readers of this letter are well aware, are anything but sanguine. Whether they will succeed in dragging the rest of the market down along with them, something they have not been able to do in recent weeks, is a question which should be answered shortly. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 813.52 S&P Compo (1200 p.m.) 91.48 ANTHONYW. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (2/14/74) 585,98 AWT/jc No stalement or expression of opinion or any other metter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to bvy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for tne conver'lenc of tne subscrober. While we believe the sources of our Informotlon fa be relmble, we In no woy represent or guarontee tne occuroey thereof nor of tne sloleme-nls mode herem Any ccllon to be token by Ihe subunber should be based on hiS own !nveSllgallOn and Information Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corpOr()tlon, ond Its officers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, POSitions or trades m respect to ony SeCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dlffere'1l from any views now or hereafter expressed m thiS or ony olher Issue Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc. which IS registered With the SEC as on mvestmenl adVisor, may give adVice to lis mvestmenl adVisory and othel customers Independently of any statemenTS mode In thIS or In ony other Issue Further information on ony security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 22, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 22, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - February 22, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE February 22, 1974 the craze- . ..-;– A 'couple'of yearsgcwheh the one;tleclsionnvErstmentCbhcepfand for growth -Zr-.;e;…. stocks still retained the status of revealed religion, it was a fairly difficult task to suggest to many portfolio managers that these stocks, on a technical basis, possessed rather substantial potential vulnerability. More recently, since many of the growth idols have developed apparent feet of clay, it has become easier to convince investors that indeed some risk may attach to these issues, and we find ourselves being asked more and more often at what level does technical work suggest they should be bought. This, unfortunately, is precisely the wrong question. The right question as regards many of the former favorites is not at what level they should be purchased, but whether or not they should, at any time in the foreseeable future, be purchased, and, indeed, by extenSion, whether they should not now, even at current depressed levels, be sold. The 1973 bear market, in other words, has convinced many investors — rather painfully — that stocks which become excessively priced in relation to others can be vulnerable to correction. The attitude still remains, however, that at some point the unpleasantness will be over, and we can go back to playing the same old game with the same old familiar names we came to know and love a couple of years ago. That particular myth may die harder, and, while it is still believed, it is likely to be productive of subpar investment results. Let us illustrate by a fable. Suppose a number of years back that an investor had located a rather interesting company in one of America's larger industries. Recent years had produced def icits due to industry-wide overcapicity, but the technological and earnings outlook for the industry was good. The stock was available at a modest price of around 13 and a hypothetical ilwJlsJor ,jllS sa',decided to purchaselOOO shaces. Thedecisionproved to pe.a wise one. – Over the next 18 y'ears, barely half a working lifetime, the original 1000 shares had increased through splits to 12,000,and each one of these 12,000 shares was worth 111. The original 13,000 investment, in a relatively short period, had increased to over 1.3 million. These flcticious results were perfectly attainable. The company in question was the Boeing Airplane Company,and the 18 years referred to were from 1949 to 1967. The subsequent story, of course, has not been as happy a one. In the 1968-70 bear market, Boeing declined to a low of 12, and has spent the entire subsequent period trading between that low and a high of 26. Indeed, its average price for each of the past four years has been around 19 a share. Not that this is par- ticularly the fault of Eoeing itself. True, there was a difficult period in 1969-70, but the re- covery has been fairly impresslve,and the company, while earning half of what it earned in the 1967 high, is selling for one-tenth of the price. Clearly the bulk of the reevaluation has been caused by the market's looking at Boeing in a different way today than it did a few years ago. The magic of the compound interest table, moreover, cuts in two directions. If our hypotheti- cal Eoeing investor had analyzed his rate of return during the first ten years or so of his invest- ment, he would have discovered he was earning at an annual rate of 40-50 on his capital from capital appreciation alone. Despite the fact that the same investor today has a 1000 profit, his annualized rate of return has been reduced to 11 compounded. We are furthermore hypoth- esizing the case of a man who was lucky to buy early in the advance, in 1949. Any investor who came to the game somewhat later, and bought the same stock at its average price for any year subsequent to 1953 today shows a loss on his Investment. The pOint Is–;- of course,-that todays avld'seekers-of growth'stocks are neither more nor less— bright than their counterparts who were bemused by the prospects of the aerospace industry a decade or so ago. Those analysts were just as certain of the bright future of the aerospace in- dustry in the middle '60's as analysts of a couple of years ago were sure that first-tier issues were going to continue their growth forever. As we suggested above many investors are still not totally disabused of this idea, and the process of so disabusing them Will, we think, be a long one. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 94.74 Cumulative Index (2/21/74) 601.46 AWT/jb 848.09 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expreSlOI1 of op'nion or any other metter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or ,ndirectly, on offer or the sollclhJllon of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred to or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convellenCe of the subscriber While Ne believe the sources of our Informoflon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guorontee the accuracy thereof nof of the stotementt mude herein Any action to be token by the subscflber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformollon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, positions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any vle…,s now or hereafter el'pressedhln 1lIs or ony o'her ISSUII Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which l registered wlln Ine SEC os on Investment adVisor, may gl….e ad.. ,e.e to Its ((\vestmllnt adVISOry and ot III customers Hldepcndently of any statements mode Hl thIS or In any other Issue Further Informa'lon on ony securoty mentIoned herein IS ovodable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 01, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 01, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - March 01, 1974
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– -1 I TABELL'S MARKET 1 I I LETTER – ,, I 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION 01 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE — .' -.'-.– — – –.-;. . rc..h-t,..,,1J)oI4 — ..,- In a couple of months the writer will have completed his 20th year a s a practicing stock market technician, and it has occasionally been useful over those twenty years to reflect a bit on the nature of technical analysis and just what, preCisely, it is that market technicians are supposed to be doing. We are not the only ones engaged in this sort of exercise. The growth of our profes- sion has engendered the founding of a professional society — of which we are proud to be mem- bers — and part of the task of this society will be to define more precisely the technician's role. At the moment, moreover, in a practical sense, we think an examination of that role yields some observations which are useful in helping to understand today's stock market. Technical analysis, quite obviously, does not exist in a vacuum. It exists because there is, in fact, a stock market and that stock market, in turn, exists because there is available capital to invest. The technician, therefore, can be socially useful only insofar as he aids those who are required to ma ke decisions about the investment of that capital. This we are firmly convinced, despite the occasional academic rumblings to the contrary, he can do. In what way can he be of aid We have always liked to define the technician as an analyst who uses as his basic input the raw data stream of stock prices and attempts, by analysis, to draw useful conclusions therefrom. We think this working definition is a good one, but there are ob- viously many different sorts of conclusions that can be drawn from the examination of prices. The -current-market,provides-a-case-inp0int. – …….,I Sunday's New York Times carried an excellent article quoting some of our colleagues on the subject of odd lot short sales and mutual fund cash position, two indicators which historically have reached certain levels at major market bottoms. It was pointed out, and rightfully so, that these indicators had not, recently, attained the levels which had accompanied major bottoms in the past, and the inference was thus drawn that the December, 1973, low might not, in fact, be the bottom of the 1973 bear market. Certainly, on the record, that inference was proper. Now in this instance, technical work approaches the status of a precise science. Market bottoms can be Gpecifically defined and the past correlation with such indicators as odd lot short sales and mutual fund cash precisely measured. In many cases, however, and we suspect this may be the cause of some academic impatience, technical work must remain an art rather than a science. Quite often, we think, the technician is compelled to exercise simple intuition in his interpretation of a given set 01 statistics, and we feel, furthermore, that the exercise of such intuition is indeed perfectly proper. Let us conSider the following example We suggested in this space a week ago that the phenomenon of only 53 new lows on February II — on a day when most market averages were posting new bottoms, off 25 from their 1973 peaks — was a significant and interesting one. Here history is of no help to us whatsoever, forthe'Verys1mpleriiason-that a comparable pnenom-enonnas never taken place-'–at-Ieast-in the 40-some-odd years of data we have available for study. We are thus forced to examine the question of whether this constitutes a sign of strength on an mtuitive basis. Our own opinion is that it does — that the small number of stocks making new lows suggests that the great bulk of listed issues had become thoroughly sold out at an earlier period and have reached a pnce level where they are, in fact, encountering effective demand. It is this sort of conclusion, in addition to the usual historical ones, that we think practicing technicians are compelled to draw. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 851.61 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 95.53 Cumulative Index (2/28/74) 616.81 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expressIon of opInion or any other motter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the sollcltotlon of on offer to b….y or sell ony security referred to or men1!oned The molter IS presen'ed merely for the convellenc of the subSCriber While He believe the sources of our Informa tlon to be rel,oble, we In no woy represent or guorontee The occurocy Ihereof nor of the stotements mode herem Any Oellon 10 be token by Ihe subscriber should be bosed on hiS own InVestlQotlon ond Informollon Jonney Montgomery Scol', Inc, os 0 corporation, ond 115 officers or employees, moy now hove, or moy loter toke, poSitions or trodes m respect loony si'!Curihes mentioned In thiS or ony future Issue, ond such position moy be different from ony views now or hereofrer epressed m HilS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to lIS Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any stolements mode In Ih,s or In any other Issue Further Informotlon on any security menlloned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 08, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 08, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - March 08, 1974
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK EXCHANQE, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 8, 1974 Market a etion continues to improve. The Dow jones Industrial Average since the December low of 788,31 rallied 11.72 to a high of 880,69 in early january. Since then a successful test of the December low was made m February, albeit the broader based averages such as the S & P Composite and the New York Stock Exchange Composite penetrated their respective lows. The Dow is now making an attempt to breach the january high, It is interesting to note at the same time daily market breadth as measured by our Cumulative Index penetrated its january high and continues to act most impressively, The pieces continue to fall into place. The 200-day moving average was broken intraday, new daily lows continue at low levels and the 11. 72 year-end rally has carried in length of time into March. As noted in an earlier market letter this year, in the 19 years railles of the magnitude of 10 or more have continued into March or later, 17 of these years the eventual trend was upward. Past issues of this letter have focused on the now obvious shift in leadership which has been takmg place in the market between the deteriorating growth issues selling at high multiples and imprOVing actlOn on the part of the low multiple,commodity-oriented,cyclical sector. Because of this coupled with the improving picture of the general market, we are therefore starting this week and will continue in future letters to review the technical position of major industry groups. The comments which follow are based on technical factors only and further information on all issues is available on request. AEROSPACE – Group relative strength continues to be below average, Most stocks in this group continue to sell around their 1970 lows, Although this area should eventually constitute potential bases, time will be needed, Overhead supply should prevent any immediate move from current levels. hown– A1R'rRASPbRr- Having reacnea-1ileriaownslde bJ5jj;Cflvaroufia'il1e1t-191nows tfilsgrouplias's increased relative strength over the past few months. At these levels National Alrllnes (19), Northwest Alrlines (24) and UAL Corp. (27) break out on the upside slightly above current levels. Feel stocks can be purchased in support areas on minor weakness. ALUMINUM – This group is typical of those cyclical industries mentioned above and for the past year has shown above average relative strength, Alcan (35), Alcoa (46) and Reynolds Metals (21), indicate longer term upside objectives and continue to feel stocks should be purchased, AUTOMOBILES – Although relative group average has deteriorated recently, Chrysler (18), Ford (49) arid General Motors (51), have met downside support and appea.r to be forming short-term bases indicating moves into overhead supply, Ford has, in fact, recently broken out on the upside indicating a move into the high 50 area, Time will be needed to improve group. Purchases on weakness in American Motors .l.!Q.l in the 10-9 area is, however, recommended for the more aggressive portfolios, AUTOMOBILE PARTS – Relative prices action of this group continue to put in below average performance, Although downside objectives have been realized, we feel considerable time will be needed for patterns to broaden. Eaton Corp. (28) and Gould, Inc. (23) have already started this process ,looking attractive short-term,and should be watched. BUILDING MATERIAL – BUllding related groups continue to deteriorate relative to the market and although downslde risk appear minimal,generally the attraction of this group is below average at th,s time. CHEMICALS – This is another cyclical group which has continued to show lmproving action. Air Products li1l, Hercules (32) and Monsanto (59) continue in uptrends wlth higher levels indicated, Allied Chemical 1i1l., Dow Chemical (60) and Union Carbide (36), also have constructive potential base formations and appear interesting as a purchase candidate. Representation in group is strongly recommended. COlirTAINER1r7METAt-& GLASSMajOr issues 'in-thls groupcontinue'to show -poorrelaflveacfion'and heavy overhead supply appears to limit any upside potential for the time being, Supply exists in the 3035 area for American Can (29) and the h,gh 20-10w 30 area for Continental Can (25), CONTAINERS – PAPER – Most issues in this group appear to be In neutral to moderate downtrend and would avoid purchase as time will be needed to improve technical positlOn of the group, Dow-jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 869.06 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 96.85 Cumulative Index (3/7/74) 625.79 RjS/jb ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or exprCSlon of opInion or any other matter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrettly or indirectly, an offer or the solitltatlon of on offer to buy or sell any sewflty referred to or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the convenience of the substflber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the !tatements mude herein Any octlon to be token by the substflber should be based on hiS own westlgatlon and Informatlo Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a torporOI,on, and Its officers or employees, may now hove, or moy later toke, POSitions or trades In respect to ony setUrihes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition l'1'\(ly be different fro'll any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on mvestnenl adVisor, may gIVe odvlce to Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herein IS avaolahle on request

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