Viewing Year: 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - September 26, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OYER lOD OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS l,ABEll'S MI ARKEl lETTER September 26, 1969 il PITTSTON COMPANY (65)…… Can you remember the last time you saw a load of coal being delivered Very few households today use this fuel for heatmg purposes and most people would think the coal business is a dying business. Quite the contrary' Especially for Pittston Company, one of the largest distributors of coal and a diversif1ed holding company in its own right. In fact, earnings have been in an impressive uptrend for almost ten years, rising from 1.64 a share m 1959 to 3.38 last year and an estimated 3.60 to 3.70 for 1969. Despite the favorable trendto.date, the.outlook e impressive. While volume should benefit from increased capacity in coal operationS, favorable trend in oil distribution facilities and a good level of steel operations on the part of steel companies, the main point of attraction is the fact that escalation clauses in certain of the company's coal contracts are combining with increased sales of more ex- pensive grades of coal to indicate an impressive Jump in earnings potential for 1970. Current esti;nates of earnings for next year now approximate the 5.25 to 6.00 a share range, a gain that 1S larger than the total gams of the last seven years. ' Pittston also is an important factor in the trucking industry through its U. S. Truck- ing and Brink's, Inc., subsidiaries. Brink's furnishes armored car services in 132 cities as well as overseas. The company also operates 31 terminals in addition to barges and tankers. Nine of these terminals have facilities for could become important in connection with Alaskan oil. W tankers, which 0 Technically, Pittston has formed a broad and one-half that suggests a price objective with a higher goal readable at 90. There limiting downside risk. Now being to e –mended.!ist,-PittstonGompany.sha'l'- 54 over the last year 10 mid-seventies, and CO in the 62-58 area, ice preciation section of our recom- d e d – f o r – p u r c h a – s e – a t – t h e – m a – r k e t – – .- – – 1 ' 1 UNION CARBIDE ride that has characterized common shares of the Union for the past decade appears to be nearing an end as prospects for mcreasingly favorable. Earnings this year are ex- pected to reverse til ntr that started in 1966, thanks to recent pr1ce increases on low-density polyethyle e several other chemical and plastics items. It is in the can mer area that UK has been showing much of its recent zip. Disposable plasttc Glad bags and wrap are doing especially well, while consumer response to the Eveready line of batteries, particularly the new longer-life types, remains quite strong. The cold weather season is coming on rapidly in'some parts of the country and the well-established line of Prestone antifreeze is expected record a new sales peak this winter. On top of all this, operations at the huge new petrochemical complex in Louisiana, have improved to the point that margins actually have been helped. All this contributes to the more favorable outlook now being held for Union Carbide. It also is being reflected in actual earnings. Compared with 2.60 a share last year, results for 1969 are being estimated at close to 2.90 a share, with a jump to well above the 3.,00 level anticipated for 1970. No incr,ease in the current 2. 00 -annual dividend. is likely during the coming twelve months. Technically, Union Carbide has been building a base for two years that indicates unusually strong support in the 42-40 area. This same base also enables a price objective to be indicated, initially in the 52 area, followed by a higher reading at 65-70. Now being recommended for purchase, Union Carbide is added to the Quality & Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List. I ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER Dow-Jones Ind. 824. 18 Dow-Jones Rails 199. 54 WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb This market letter is pubhshed for your convenience and IDformatlon and IS not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy Bny seeUtltles diSCUSsed The in- formation was obtained from sources we believe to be rehable, but we do not lrUarantee Its Walston & Co. Inc and its officers. dn'ectors or employees may have an Interest In or J)UFchfUle and sell the Si!CuntllB referred to healn WNBOl 'ill , ,J ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 03, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OF..FICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS /1.- C TABEll'S MARKET LETTER October 3, 1969 For a while, at least, the 800 level in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average appeared to hold some magic for the market. This level, let it be remembered, wa s the low that had turn ed back three declining phases during the past two months. On Thursday, the Dow again ap- proached 800, reaching an hourly bottom of 801. 81. That afternoon a rally on good volume ensued and the average, whlch had been off better than five points, wound up almost five points on the plus side. The rally followed through on Friday morning, but falled to hold its ground and Friday's close was mixed – the Dow showing a three point loss. Amid this confusion, a few basic facts should be remembered (1) The market is, ,we believe, m the process of forming a base, and this will be true regardless of whether -the 800 levcl ispenetrated or not. ispenetraied;-rns'un– likely to be breached by a substantial amount. (2) In any case, a good deal more time will be required before the market moves ahead substantially. Paradoxically, less time would probably be required were a new low to be made, as this would probably produce wide fluctuations which would speed up the accumula- tion process. Another three to four months around present levels is a distinct probability. (3) The time required to complete new bases will vary widely among individual stocks and different issues will reach their ultimate lows and! or support levels at di!ferent times during the base formation period. The sensible course in such an environment is to build up a fully-invested position in attractive issues by purchasing these stocks as individual support levels are reached. We suggested such a buying program in our September 19th date eight stocks have been added to our list under this program. They are, with t el r&ended prices Dixilyn (28), Great West. Financial (25), Merck (95)Bt.o a a s t e r (140), Pittston (65), Tishman Realty (30), Union Carbide (41 3!8), 011,. (32) reviewed below. GROLIER, INC., one of the largest PUb5irSs er books in the world, is ridin a rising tide of hunger for education and kno res g in record sales and earnings for the 0 Lworksarethe….2.0-3.01umeJilew Booj of Knowledge and the A new 50-volume set of the World Great Classics has just been i t 0 18-volume set of the French Book of Know- ledge and a S ge ernational Encyclopedia now are in progress. Foreign sales hav e p' in recent yeaI'ls and now constitute more than 25 of total revenues. 1969 is expected 0 b ecord year for both sales and earmngs. The sharp rise of 17 in first-half sales was in large part to a lessening of tenslOns and civil unrest, factors that made many people unwilling even to open their doors to Grolier salesmen last year. The company derives approximately two-thlrds of revenues from the sale of publications made on a door-to-door basis. Management estimates that 1969 revenues will approximate 195 mil- lion, up from 181 million last year, while per share earnings are expected to come close to 2.25 a share, exceeding the old hlgh of 2. 20 set back in 1966, and well above last year's 1. 79. Further improvement is being prOJected for 1970. Some mcrease in the 90 annual dividend is anticipated in 1970. Future earnings should be aided by recent moves to enter th low-cost housing and mobile homes industries via development of a trailer park in Texas. The World War II babies now are at the marrying and family formation stage, and t,hey belong to a generation that has put education and learning high on the must list. The birth rate also has started-to-turn upa-gain, and 1969 is.li-kely to be the best year in this respect since the late 1940's. All this seems to augur well for the long-range prospects of GroUer and other publishers. Technically, Grolier, recently added to the Price Appreciation section of our Recom- mended List at a price of 32, shows a strong area of downside support in the 30-25 area, where It is believed that accumulation has been going on for more than one year. ThIS congestion area has formed a base enabling the projectlOn of a price objective at 48, approximately 50 above current market levels. Groller again is recommended for purchase in in- vestment accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 808.41 Dow-Jones Rails 196.07 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb ThIS market lettcr I! puhlJ'Ihcd for Your convemen('c tnd IllfoJIll,\tmll all' 1'.. not nn to'lf'1I 01 lL .,,,iUltltUn to ;,ecuntlt's ,hscussed The in- formation WlI'I oLUunl't fl0m 'OUlU'l we hphl'vl' to be teh,IIlIi, hut we do not J.,.U'lll\ntec .(lOur.I.'V, \Vnhtoll &. Co, Inc IIn,1 Ih officuH, dllcctor.; or employee!! may have un interest In or I'UI chase !Inri sell the \lllll. I ('f.. rre,1 to h.. 1ell) WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 10, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS -….TABELL'S MARKET LETTER'- .. – … October 10, 1969 Since this is a technical market letter, many readers will, we suppose, expect us to go into a long dissertation about this week's testing of the 800 level in the Dow-Jones In- dustrials and to issue a forecast as to whether this supposed bastion will, in fact, withstand the assaults of enraged sellers. Frankly, we couldn't care less. Moreover, we think the market agrees with us. The momentary penetration of 800 at noon Thursday, was accompanied by nothing more than yawns and decreased volume. When it became apparent that the sky was, in fact, not fallmg, prices immediately firmed and were somewhat stronger on Friday. 1Despite the action of the,Dow, of course,it .is, obvious.thaLthe.market levels reached, on July 29th were not, in fact, being tested at all'this week. Only 125 issues made new 1969 lows on Thursday, as contrasted to 732 new lows posted on July 28th. Moreover, the intra- day low on the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index was 91. 75 vs. 88. 04 at the end of July, with the New York Stock Exchange Index showing a comparable disparity. It should be ob- vious that the investor who is spending a lot of time worrying about the 800 level, could profitably be turning his energies in a number of other directions. We have reiterated our attitude concerning the present stock market in previous edi- tions of this letter. It is, 1n sum, that the market is presently forming a base for an advanc to begin at some future date. At the present time, 1t is impossible to make projections as to how far this advance might carry. What is beginning to emerge at the moment is a serie of clues about the nature and shape of the base formatlOn and the likely behavior of indivi- dual stocks while the formation is taking place. Let us theme a bit further. Base formations can be relattvely wild, vlOlent affa' swings back and fort or they can be more protracted periods with g h ract ed by relatively light volume. We are conditioned by recent experience to ormer e. Both the 1962 and 196 bottoms involved relatively wide swings and . 01 a rather sizeable penetration of the inittal climactic low. The initial low in as e in August and this was later br-oken in-October.-In'1962;-there p' nthrusts'after'the May-selling climax, a move to a new low in the May low in October. action is, so far, refusmg to confor t o\j;li'ese patterns. In 1966, a new low was made 24 days after the 1 i 62 a new low was posted within 11 trading days. ' All of these new 1 P recoveries. The Dow recovered 6.3 following the May 1962 low and 6. How' the August 1966 low. In the present case, the Dow in September recovered nl . from the July 29th bottom, but as of the moment, 51 tradin days after the sellin ax, no new low has been posted. All this is obviously descriptive of a period in which the fluctuations are less v101ent ' and in a narrower range than in any of the two previous market bottoms. In order to find a base formation period that is comparable, we have to go back a number of years to 1957-58. In this instance, the climax low reached in October of 1957 proved to be the ultimate bottom and the market spent some six months scraping along th1S bottom on relatively light volume before any sort of an advance was able to get under way. If the 1957-58 parallel continues to be followed, we can, at the moment, look for very little action in the averages, a protracted trading range perhaps extending well into the firs quarter of 1970. However, one additional characteristic of 1957-58 is worth noting. During that period, there were large numbers of issues Wh1Ch remained relatively unaffected by the bear market and wh.i'ch, during'the period the averages were'basing out, were al- ready well on their way to new highs. This was true at the time of most drug, tobacco re- tailing, food, and utility issues, and it is interesting to note that these issues not only con- tinued to move ahead uninterruptedly during the base formation, but were the leaders once the 1958 advance got under way. The comparable action being displayed at the moment by Office Egmpment, Drug, Cosmetics, Savings & Loans, and certain Retailing issues, is striking; and it may well be that a great many stocks in this category have already embarke on bull markets of their own. In other words, while 1t is too early to get excited about im- mediate general market prospects, we think that more and more stocks are beginning to show up as attractive capital gains vehicles. Dow-Jones Ind. 806.96 Dow-Jones Rails 196.09 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket I, tter IS for your ,mri mform.llIon Ilnol not 1\11 offc' to 1(.11 OJ .1 formatIOn WII!!I oblmncd from we Iwlu\', to bL Hllllhlt. hut WI.! do not Inlarantee Its .ICCUla'\ A mil, have an mtereet m or Jurcha.st .md sell the St'!.Ulltt!5 ref'.!t nl 10 hCl m W T amD to bu) illlY '(j, unties JI,,(USSed The ill\\'.Ilston 8. Co, Inc lind Its officers. dLrectors or WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 17, 1969
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Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABEll'S MARKEl lETTER October 17, 1969 The stock market this week demonstrated one of its more engaging characteristics .,the ability to find an excuse to do what it was already obviously about to do in the first place The operative excuse in this particular instance was peace, and we duly celebrated a peace rally. It was a pretty good one too. The Dow advanced 12 points on Monday, opened with a gap on Tuesday, and tacked on another 13 points. Then, after some digestion at mid-week, another 14 points was added on Thursday when news of the Hanoi secret-talk proposals appeared. On both Tuesday and Thursday, almost 20 million shares were traded. – -.Some-mild.profit taking,entered.thesceneIate. were rejected. So, despite the fact that we are just about as close to peace today as we – were a week ago, the averages now find themselves some 30 points higher. It was, of course; the -flimsiest sort of an excuse, and it would, 'indeed, have made just as much sense to say that the market was going up because the New York Mets were winning the World Series. The real reason for the market advance went largely unnoticed. At the beginning of last week the market was trading close to its lows for the year, having spent most of the first 7 months of 1969 in a precipitous decline. The reasons for this decline were obvious enough — fear of a recession and worry over the effects of anti- inflationary measures. During the decline, cash available for equity investment in the hands of institutions had built up to near-record levels. QUite obviously, at some level or another, the collective judgment of the market place was be that the worst that could be seen had already been thoroughly discounted, an e all going to be Throughout August, September and October it becal)1 inc e Sl e' nt that that level was at around 800 in the Dow-Jones. Thus, a t 00 el needed no real rationale and the market simply seized on the most enie xcuse lying around; The question we must now –rio;sly alters the-stock market outiO -. – – ew the week's market strength months.-It-(struetnat 8t the sehighs on Thursday all of the out of the long trading ranges that had characterized them thro gh th . e p r )1 July. If the market follows through with these breakouts, it i e t ad upside targets for the various indices. The Dow pattern is so upside objectives varying between 852 and 885. The more broadly based e ge ve more definite patterns. It is possible to project the Standard & Poor's Indus Index, now at 105, to around 115; and the Standard & Poor's 500, now at 95, to und 102. Having mentioned these objectives, we must confess that, at this stage of the market, we are not sure of their significance. It is possible that the rally might carry to these targets in a sharp, straight-line sort of a move, but we think it unlikely. We are still inclined to go along with our original assumption that more time will be required to complete a base for a larger advance to take place during 1970. The bottom limit of that base has now been pretty well defined as 800, and we suspect that at the moment the market is trying to define an upper limit for the base formation. During this period, most stocks will be completing their accumulation patterns while some, in which the accumulatton is complete, start on major upside moves. It is identifying the stocks in this latter category which will be the major task for the investor in the months ahead. NOTE Four additional stocks were added to our Recommended List two weeks ago under the buying program outlined in our letter of September 19th. They are, with their recommended prices Atlas Chemical (27), Faberge (32), International Business Machines (340) and Sears Roebuck (66). Dow-Jones Ind. 836.06 Dow-Jones Rails 199.56 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This matket letter IS Imblished for your conVerllefllt!' and mforrmitlon lind 1'1 not an offer to sell or tt sohCltation W bl,l) flny se1UnllC6 dll;cw;sed. The m- formatIOn wns obtnmed frgm oourees we hf'lLcve to be rehable. bl.lt we do not guarantee lts accurl\CY Walston & Co Inc and Its oflk.ers directors or emploees may have an IntercBt In or pur!!hase and sell the .!.ecuritles to herem WN.801

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 24, 1969
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Walston &- Co. lnc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 7rfr – i..Eln October 24, 1969 The evidence is now glaring — and the investor ignores it at his peril. July 29, 1969 constituted, in all probability, a major bottom in the stock market. Now, we are well aware of the fact that nothing in the equity market is ever a 100 certainty, but last week's market strength unquestionably seemed to provide the final affir- mation of a long-held contention — that the past three months have constituted part of a base formation which will, ultimately, lead to higher market levels. Strength continued un- abated in this week's trading, with the Dow scoring a 3-point advance on Monday, a 7-point advance on Tuesday and, finally,a 13-point advance on Wednesday. Weakness which brought the Index down 10 points in early trading Thursday was erased that afternoon and the next day, with anew high of 868. By mid-week the market had reached what may be termed an extreme-overbought condition on a short-term basis. On that day, the average plurality of advances over decline for the previous ten days was 385 or 24 of the average number of issues traded. This is a rare occurrence and is typical only of rallies which take place following major market bot- toms. It has occurred only six times previously in the past 13 years; in January 1958, three times at successively higher levels following the 1962 bottom, in January 1967 and most re- cently in April 1968. In all cases, a worthwhile advance ultimately followed the occurrence. Now, admittedly, the very fact of the market's being overbought indicates the prob- ability that the upswing will run out of steam on a short-term basis in the near future. How- ever, the most probable aftermath could be a period of consolidation perhaps going on into early 1970 rather than a substantial correction. We feel offer an excellent chance to take a fully invested position. of consolidation wil st cks in which we would favor accumulation on weakness is the FABERGE … (37 1/4) Few industries have prpyE;4. the ves as well insulated again the effects of economic cycles as has the c02s . For the last decad'e, sales have been growing at an annual rate -sumer disposableincome-but-change – n- —-0, e ing not only the steady rise in con- (CJf- lie-of-the American-population;-Today;- the male population, here as a started to spend a greater part of his in- come on such 15ie of success has bee t e e v s, deodorants, bath soaps, etc. The sweet sme just granted. As a leader 1 benefited from the sh an cosmetic field, Faberge, formerly Rayette-Faberge, has is hair spray use in recent years. Rayette Aqua-Net, the com pany's leading brand in field, has been the nation's top selling brand for several years, accounting for about 0 of the total domestic market. In addition to the various lines of hai products, produced by the Rayette, Tip Top and Caryl Richards divisions, Faberge also manufactures such popular items as lip sticks and nail glaces (a more sophisticated name for nail polishes), Kiku Japanese-inspired bath items, Brut, Woodhue and Aphrodisia men's shaving and bath products. A new line of fragrances, cosmetics and bath items is slated for introduction this Fall under the name Xanadu, and should be of help to nubile men and wome Sales and earnings have been improving steadily in recent years with the current pro- jection for 1969 calling for revenues to rise to near 140 million, vs. 130.4 million last year, and earnings are expected to approximate 1. 70 a share, compared with 1. 52 in 1968 Considering that the final quarter of the year, encompassing the busy Christmas buying sea- son, normally is the best by far, the earnings may exceed the estimated level by a small a-mount. Either way the outlook remains highly favorable-for a continuation-of-this impressiv — trend well into the foreseeable future. One leading advisory service is on record as antici- pa-Ling earnings well above the 2.00 level during the 1972-1974 period. Judging from past action, it would not be surprising to us to see this earnings level reached in the 1970-1971 period. Technically, FBG has formed an area of congestion in the low 30' s tllat goes back over a year. Not only does this base area form considerable downside support, but it also enables the projection of a price objective around the 55-60 area. Already on the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List, Faberge again is recommended for purchase by invest- ment-oriented accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 862.26 Dow-Jones Rails 201.23 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. This mnrket letter 18 published for Jour convemence and InformatIOn Hl1d IS not an offr to sell or n soliCitatIOn to bu any secuntles dlSCUSqed The m- fonnatlOn was obtamed flom sources we helleve to be rehahle, but we do not guarantee Its a'CUrRcy \Vnlston lL Co. Inc anll lb, officers. directors or cmplo)cc'l may have Rn mterest In or pUl'lhltSl' and set! the 'amb referred to herem WNsol

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 31, 1969
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Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Prine, pal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER October 31, 1969 After reaching a new high at 868 in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average last Friday, the market was subject to profit taking most of the week and moved back to an intra-day low of 839.82 on Thursday before strength on Thursday afternoon and Friday era sed half of the week's losses. Considering the overbought condition mentioned in last week's letter, the most probable outlook for the foreseeable future is a senes of extended swings back and forth — probably centering around the 860 area. Durmg this period, individual issues wlll pursue their own patterns, and periods of weakness should be used for accumulation. One 1.. stock suitable for such acC1t1JJlUlahuntillstreYi-ewed below. -THE NATIONALCASH-R-EGISTER…COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock 145 1/8 1. 20 O. 8 319,600,268 10,330,675 shs. It would appear that few companies have as much going for them as Natbnal Cash Register has going for it. After IBM, NCR is the largest and most important factor in the offic equipment field. It has held the major share of the cash register market for a long time Sales-1969 Est. 1. 245 billion and now seems about to expand its already Sales-1968 1. 102 billion large overseas market in this area as switch- Earns. Per Sh. 1969-E Earns. Per Sh. 1968 4.20 4.35 3 74 . ing over to the decimal system takes place throughout the United Kingdom. In to benefit from its Mkt. Range 1969-1968 154 1/4 – 99 1/2 increasingl tr ry position in the h ne , an area expected to show unusually large production gains during the 197'o(sifASupp . nd services connected with the cash register and accounting at9I a nt for a considerable portion of revenues, which is fully expected to parall hin es growth in the years ahead. . –Only a few -years -i . at -into the computer-'ring.–It intro- – ' duced its latest line in March ing area have risen shar y wit lka. in the electronic data processrs computer-related products now accounting for between 15 and 2 0 e . Trade sources have suggested that NCR has the potential to double market within the next four years. The company has been highly selective 1 ap ch to the computer and EDP markets in general and has sought to concentrate on oping business in the financial and retailing industries, where it already had long-stan' favorable relations with customers. Earnings have been in an erratic trend in recent years, largely due to costs related to the computer business. Heavy initial depreciation charges on recent computer placements and the still high introductory costs are expected to keep results under some pressure. However, 1969 earnings results are expected to witness the first breakout from the 2. 50 to 4.00 earnings plateau that has been maintained for ten years. Current estimates call for earnings to rise to between 4.20 and 4.35 a share, from the 3.74 reported for last year. One leading advisory service has gone on record as projecting NCR's earnings for the 1972-1974 period to above the 7.00 a sh'tre level. Technically, there is substantiahon for the fundamental enthusiasm in this situation. When NCR moved above the 140 level in September, it broke.o.ut of a trading range that.kept the stock confined to an area between 140 and 110 for more than a year. This base area not only now creates a formidable support zone limiting downside potential, but it also enables the proJection of a price goal at 175 initially. Recently added to the Quality and Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List when it temporarily dipped slightly below the 140 level in late September, the shares of National Cash Register Company again are recommended for purchase at preyaiUng mar-ket… Dow-Jones Ind. 855.99 Dow-Jones Rails 200.20 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb ffThis market I,ttel 19 I'uhlu,hld 01 'Olll ('OIl\l'IlIUlI'C mil n'OImnt1fHl lind ,.. not ,In to 1'1(11 01 l ..IJ(ll.ltWIl in Iou\' lin L('uI,llllI The tn- fOlmatJon Wf\'I ol.otl\lllPd Clom we hrI'v. to he It'h,II,.., hut '\L ,I not b'1Il1,wtl't. Lh,lIl'(,'u1';H\ \\',lI;;tol1 l.. Co 1111'. ,md it .. officer'!, ,IUI-dort or emplove!', mllv have IIIl IIItt'rCBt III 01 IIUIf'h.I;'It' .Ind sell the .. 1 to herelJl, WN.301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 07, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 07, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - November 07, 1969
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, Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS IL E TABEll'S MARKET lETTER November 7, 1969 The passage of hme and the progression of market cycles continually bring new sets of problems which are posed to the market technician. Until just recently, the major prob- lem was to determine whether July 29, 1969 constituted a market bottom, or merely an in- terruption of an ongoing decline, The evidence inclined us fairly firmly toward the former view all along, and it has continued with each week to be more conclusive. The market strength of the latter part of last week when the Dow again approached its October 24th high added further evidence. It was accompanied by positive readings in a number of lagging indicators — indicators designed to signal uptrends not close to bottoms, but after a revers has been well confirmedAt.the present time, most such devices are in positive territory –and the premise-of a new seemsto- furtherevi -, . dence contradicts it. This being the case, a- new set of problems is then posed, centering around the ques tions of how far can the advance carry and how long can it be expected to remain in effect. There is, f!ir a number of reasons, no easy answer to these questions at the moment. One reason is that all of the popular stock market indexes, along with a substantial number of individual stocks, are in what are known in technical parlance as broadening base patterns. A broadening base occurs when a decline takes place with a number of significant pauses on the way down. When the market finally bottoms and a recovery sets in, very often pauses will take place at approximately the same levels on the upside followed by a resumption of th uptrend. This produces the familiar head and shoulders type of base formation which, when it is complete, allows for a much broader the case. Let us take as an example the current chart 9f&tur h\'iiow- nes Industrial Average. Between May and July of this year, the fr ust under 970 to its low of under 800. There were, however, a couple of f\tlj.y si cant pauses on the way down, one in early July in the 868-888 area, remember, once having touched its w – – -\ 'd id-July at 840-856. As we all he subsequently remained in a -at-the-t-ime; -the upside'potenti-als -of-this base centered around the penetrated on the upside in October, however, a trading rang is willing to accept h t i an 81n characterized the market ever since. If one he' e late July pause in the downswing, a broadened upside projection 0 – 5 c s possible. The pattern could broaden still further with additional work in th 8 ar A similar possib' for broademng exists in the Standard & Poor's 500. A conser vat i v e projection on e upside is 103 versus a present level of 98. This would be below both the May high of 106.74 and the 1968 all-time high of 108.37. It is, however, not at all a stretch of the imagination to conceive that the pattern could broaden so as to indicate an objective in the 110-115 range or a newall-time high for the Index. The problem of projecting an upside target is further compounded by the fact that, since the middle 1960' s, bull markets, in the averages at least, have been considerably less dynamic. The Dow advanced better than 700/0 between 1958 and 1961, and better than 850/0 between 1962 and 1966. The subsequent advance to December 1968, however, was only 320/0. The familiar argument tht the Dow was not representative of the market during the peri od is, at best, only partiril1y true, since the broader-based incJices also chalked up historically small adva.nces in 19613-(;8. One that seems to be ;hanging, however, is the length of time which an advancing phase occupies, On this basis, it would be normal to suggest that the coming upswing will last somewhere between a year and two years, pretty much the standard for the post-war period.- – ..'1 In summary, then; -there–are- some real difficulties involved in forecasting just how far the market rise may carry,and we would not expect these difficulties to be resolved for some time. It is not necessary, however, to be able to see the end of the road at the begin- ning of the journey. The odds now favor a fully invested position until such time as market evidence persuades us otherwise. Dow-Jones Ind. 860,48 Dow-Jones Rails 199.16 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT'amb This mRrl.ct kttl1 IS pul,ilshed for YOUJ con'cnlcnee It,d 1nfOlmRtmn nnd 1, nut In O.fI'CI to 01 H formntJon \\,IUI obtRlllooJrom wurce. we bellevl' to be rehal,lc. hut do not gunr,\l\tc(' Its lICCUH1C\ employees rna) have an mterellt In or pUTrhase an'\ sell the S('CUlltW' referred to hetelll — lu ,U) ;,eCUllth!!\ d,,,tus,,ed The 1fiv \V,llslon &. Co. Inc ,tnd officers, Ullcctors or

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 14, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 14, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - November 14, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–lnc —-Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 14, 1969 Any reader of the financial page is certainly familiar with the great debate that, at the moment, is raging in economic circles. On one side are those who contend that the monetary restraints imposed on the economy throughout 1969 are indeed working, even though the results may not yet be apparent, and that the major danger at the moment is one of overkill — the precipitation of too deep an economic recession in 1970. The other side would argue that inflation has not yet been cooled — that the economy is still buoyant and continued restraint is..Btill-I'.equired. so obviously turn and start to move up last August There is an answer, we think, and it is perfectly consistent in light of the market's past behavior in similar circumstances. . '.1 Let us state, first of all, that we find ourselves on the first side of the argument mentioned above. We think that the effects of monetary restraints will become manifest at the end of 1969 and early 1970, that a recession is a distinct possibility, and that there should, under any rational policy, be shortly forthcoming some measure of monetary ease. How, then, do we square this view with our admittedly optimistic assessment of the outlook for common stock prices The National Bureau of Economic Research defines four periods in post-war econo- mic history as recessions November 1948-0ctober 1949, July 1953-August 1954, July 1957 April 1958 and May 1960-February 1961. In the case of four, there was an accompanying decline in stock prices. In the 1948-49 rec Sl in stocks came five months before the economic recession as defin9,yt e . 1953-54, it came six months before and in 1957-58 a month before (a h s c lces had been flat for a year), and in 1960-61 the peak in stock ain the nomy by five months. Again, in all four cases, the market had bottomed rted rior to the recession trough. The marketbottom-led the b ou onths-in-1949,eleven-months-in 1954;- six months in 1958 and five Now, admittedly, 'f we rm period, it is difficult to know where the peak will e e 1 P n ted. The FRB Index has moved ahead, albeit sluggishly, throu . Corporate profits, however,peaked in the first quarter and earning n e Clard & Poor's 500 reached their high in the last quarter of 1968. All this, it seem us, is perfectly consistent with a market which reached its high in Decerhber 19 , and it s bottom at the end of .Tuly 1969. The stock market's quite obvious lead on the economy is an outgrowth of its willing- ness to capitalize earnings which are being affected by a recession more generously than it capitalizes earnings at the height of a business boom — which is, when one thinks of it, a perfectly rational tendency. In the four recessions mentioned above, corporate profits after taxes, as measured by the Department of Commerce, declined around 25 in the first three and 11 in the last. In the first two recessions, the decline in earnings on the Standard & Poor's 500 was less than the total corporate profits decline, and in the latter two it was slightly greater. What is interesting, however, is the fact that in every recession the price earnings ratio has increased sharply, 20 in 1948-49, 15 in 1963-64, 33 in 1957-58, and 44 in 1.960-61. — – This is especially interesting in view of the current relatively low multiple on the Dow. Present prices mark the Dow at 14 times latest earnings. In a recession a 20 decline in earnings, about the worst being forecast, would bring earnings of 48. A 30 increase in the multiple, not at all out of line historically, would result in those earnings being capitalized 18.2 times for a price of 873. Were the increase in multiple to be compara,ble to the 1961 receSSlOn, the multiple could rise to over 20, which would result in a price target of close to 1000 at the recession's bottom. Dow-Jones Ind. 849.26 Dow-Jones Rails 196.22 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ThIS market letter IS publtshed (or your COn\CnlCnec nnd mformatlOn lind 1 not tn offf'r to sell or .1. soiL'Jtntton to bu\ !lny seeuntles The In- ormatIon WAS obtnmed from sources we heILevl.' to he rehable. hut …. e do not guarantee Its accunl.l'\' emplo),s may have an mter('f!t In or purchase and sell the S(eurltll's rercrrl(1 to herein & Co Inc Ami Its officers. director'! or WNSOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 19, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 19, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - November 19, 1969
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Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS Fu.-c.. lABEll'S RECOMMENDED LlSl November 19, 1969 This edition of our Recommended List gives long-term technical upside objectives, plus indicated support levels or shorter-term downside objectives. In all cases, we believe the stock would be attractive for purchase at the levels given in the support column. QUALITY & LONG-TERM GROWTH Close Qual- Upside 11/18/69 . ity Obj. Address.Multi. 66 1/4 A 94-112 Alum.Co.Amer. 73 3/4 B 82-84 Amer.Tel & T 53 1/8 A 60-67 Boston Edison 32 3/4 A 62-80 Caterpillar Tr 42 3/4 A 51-64 Del Monte 29 3/4 A 35-50 Fed.Dept. St 38 1/2 A 49-53 Int.Bus.Mach. 363 1/4 A 450 Intern'l Paper 41 A- 46-60 Jewel Cos. 50 1/2 A 64-80 Johns Manville 33 A 46-57 Sup- 60 67-65 50-48 32 37 23 30 325 35 47-44 26 Close Merck 1071/4 Natl Cash 143 Nevada Pr 43 5/8 Parke Dav. 35 Phillips P 26 Radio Corp 40 Rey.Tob. 485/8 Royal Dutch441/2 Sears Roe. 69 1/2 Sup. Oil 158 Union Carbo 40 5/8 Qual- Upside Sup- Rort A 116-136 96-90 A 175 138-128 B 68 39-36 B 50-60 32-28 A 37-43 23 A- 47-62 36 A 76 45 A 62-68 40 A 102 62-56 A- 195 140 A 50-63 40 PRICE APPRECIA TION Close Qual- 11/18/69 ity Amer.Dist. 215/8 B – Amer-Mach.F.-ill/2 B Arvin Ind. 26 1/4 B Atlas Chern. 23 1/8 B Cenco Instrum. 453/8 B Chic. Mus. Ind 30 B Clark Equip. 35 A- Copperweld St 18 7/8 B Dan River Mills 141/4 B Dart Ind. 53 1/2 A- Faberge 375/8 B First Chart. Fin. 411/4 Grolier,Inc 323/4 B Ingersoll Rand 41 5/8 A- Koppers Co. 41 1/8 B Upside Obj. 42-47 27-37 34-50 38-50 52-56 38-45 46 46 22-36 68-78 55-60 60-80 43 53-78 60-68 Sup- Close port 11/18/69 19 McNeil Corp. 17 3/4 19'—'M-edusaP.C-30 22-18 Mesabi Tr. 9 17 Pittston 67 3/4 40-38 Rep. Steel 37 1/4 28-24 Reynolds M.353/8 29 Robt. Cont. 40 1/8 14 Seab. Coast 1. 38 1/2 10 Stokely V.C.31 3/4 46-42 Sub. Prop.G. 33 1/2 33-27 Texas Inst. 119 1/2 43-37 Union Camp. 33 30-26 Vornado 22 1/4 39 West. Union 481/2 38-35 Quality B A- B B B- B B B A- B B B Upside SupObj. port 23-32 15 4058 24–16-22 8 75-90 64-60 45-62 34-28 42-71 30 52 33-30 48-55 39-34 44-56 26-22 40-54 29-26 165-180 90 46-74 28 29-40 18 70-79 44 SPECULATIVE PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual11/18/69 ity Allied Supermkts.14 5/8 Amer .Motors 10 7/8 Camp. Chiboug. 11 5/8 Comp.Sciences 30 1/4 Dixilyn Corp. 24 7/8 Gibraltar Fin. 32 1/2 Gt. West Fin. 25 1/4 B B B Upside SupObj. port 22-33 24 20-26 40-43 30-4846-58 40-60 10 8 10 24 19 28-26 20-18 Close Qual11/18/69 ity Kysor Ind. 27 7/8 Macke Co. 18 3/4 Mesa Pete. 44 1/4 Pacific Pete. 27 5/8 Penn Central 323/4 Technicolor 23 7/8 Tishman R. 25 5/8 B B B B B Upside Obj. 36-52 26-47 60-73 43-51 62-104 40 45-58 Support 24 15 41-38 25 27 18 21 Anthony W. Tabell Walston & Co. Inc. This Bulletm lS llUbhshl.!d fot your ('onvefilt'OU' .)fi' Info mlilion …. nd IS not .n OtT('1 to or a SOlICit ItLnn to buy an) b('CUfltlCS ,hsCI\s,c,! The )nformatwn wns oht!\lncd (lorn we ldlLVt to I leh,\ble, hut Wt rio not gU.l.r.lnltL' Its ,\ClUIII'Y, \V….lbton &, Co, Inr an,l officel. tillc'torR 01 may hElve an Interesllfi or llUlrhllb' an.l bell the IdellL'i1 to helt'ln WN-916

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 21, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 21, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - November 21, 1969
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Walston &Co. ———Inc ——–Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER l000F.FICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TADELL'S MARKET LETTER November 21, 1969 Stock market action has deteriorated quite sharply over the past two weeks. From a high of 871. 77 in mid-November, the Dow has reacted to an intra-day low of 820. 35 as of Friday. Although volume has not been heavy, breadth has been poor and most short-term indicators are now in deeply oversold territory. The depth of the decline at this stage is somewhat disquieting, but inspection of individual chart stock patterns shows absolutely no reason to abandon our contention that most stocks are somewhere in the process of forming a base. We would accordingly utilize the weakness to add to holdtngs of issues in good technical patterns such as Reynolds Tobacco C — – REYNOLDS TOBACCO. COMPANY — – – –,-,11 Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 46 3/4 2.40 5.1 The renewed earnings upsurge previously an hCipated for Reynolds Tobacco seems to be on schedule. Despite rising industry costs, conti- Long-Term Debt 2.25 Conv. Pfd. Stk. Common Stock Sales-1969-E st. Sales-1968 297 million 8, 103, 837 shs. 40,235,552 shs. 2. 25 billion 1. 96 billion nued harassment by anti-smoking groups and an anti-trust action settlement, earnings for 1969 are expected to rise better than 10 above 1968 levels. Even more appealing to longer-term investors, the outlook for this rate of improvement being augmented is highly optimistic than Earn. Per. Sh. 1969-E. 4. 15 to several developments having taken place sinc Earn. Per Sh. 1968 3.71 RJR was the letter back in April Mkt. Range 1969-68 50 5/8 35 1/4 of this year w n h a sharerfb The most recent development was the 0a cR was selling at 38 3/8 ago of a new method of puffing cigarette tobacco, doubling its bulk and possible to produce a cigarette with a great deal less tobacco. 111 have two major effects. Firs the.-E-.ffi()1,lnt of tobacco in a tine the smoker irlhaleS. Second, si — u , so will the amount of tar and nicos represent 60 of ffiaiiUfacturing costs, substantial production ,s Meanwhile, 4 i Ust b s i fro e coming halt of TV and radio advertising are imminent. Sales vo u ' e damaged httle by the cessation, and cost reduct- ions of close to ne 1ble. In addition, se a i tant acquisitions have been completed over the past year, or are now in various stag discussion. The most important addition was McLean Industrie one of the largest oce freight transporters. Now called Sea-Land Service, this subsidiary has 38 vessels, 33 of which are container ships. Eight additional ships are under conversio to container carriers and eight more ships are being built abroad. Sea-Land also is nego- tiatingthe charter of sixteen containerships with the U. S. Lines subsidiary of Walter Kidde & Co. This unusually rapid growth is a reflection of the highly promising outlook for ocean trade and containerization in general. The merger with Professional Golf Company, a leading producer of golf balls and equi ment, has been temporarily suspended until agreement on the ratio of exchange of common shares has been reached. The eventual additio'lof this company to Reynolds' expanding inte- rests, should it definitely come about, would provide still another step away from the earlie almost complete dependence on tobacco products. This diversification into non-tobacco lines has resulted in a substantial position in the food industry. Although a recent agreement with the Dept. of Justice will result in the divest iture of its Penick & Ford Ltd. subsidiary, the company will be able to retain its profitable consumer food business. This operation includes such well known brand names as My-T-Fin Vermont Maid, College Inn, Chun Kmg Chinese foods, Patio Foods, Filler Products and Pacific Hawaiian. The company also is active in the production of aluminum, packaging and vinyl films. Technically, RJR continues to suggest favorable market action. There 1S good support in the mid to'low 40's and a long-term price objective in the mid-70's. Already on the Quality section of our Recommended List, Reynolds Tobacco again is recommended for purchas – Dow-Jones Ind. 823. 13 Dow-Jones Rails 192. 91 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT,m3J '8 m b This market letter lS )lulJllsheri for find Infolmdtlll1 IInri not 1\11 off..t tn or ,I ..,olultatlon to bu\ .lny dlscusst'tl The In- formatIOn …. n'l ohtnmcd from .,OUICt' v.e h'li('v,. to ,,. rdmhl,. hut …. e do not guarantel Its lIccur,lcy 8.. Co. Inc. ,lnd ts ffi d t employees mny hnve nn Illterest In or JJUuh.lSe liml !cll the !elUrLtles referred to herem L 0 leers, Irec or! or WN.301

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