Viewing Month: June 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 06, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc —-Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS – J L'E. TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 6, 1969 Question If what goes up, comes down, – will what goes down come up Answer TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INCORPORATED Current Price 123 1/4 The latter variation on the cliche cited Current Dividend 0. 80 above often has been related in the past to Current Yield O. 60/0 the movement of securities. It is a well Long Term Debt 52,900,000 known fact of market life that fads and fash- Common Stock .' 10,940,190 shs. ions have their day as the popularity of groups 770,000, 000- -wax-and then wane-as 'the fad changes. StfCli…. -H Sale-s-1968 671,230,000 has it always been in the marketplace and like- Earn. Per Sh.1969-E. 2.75 – 2.85 ly will it so remain far into the future. What Earn. Per Sh. 1968 2.41 is a particularly hot item one day has been Mkt. Range 1969-68 127 3/4 – 86 1/4 known to leave investors cold the next. The antithesis of this suggests, therefore, that what is avoided one day eagerly may be sought after the next day. Testamony to these thoughts seems to be amply demonstrated by a review of the performance of the Electri- cal Equipment and Electronics industrial group in recent years. A glance at the charts for this group of stocks reflects that they were much in fashion in the 1964-1965 period and again in 1966 after the market completed the sharp downtrend that characterized much of the latter year. The advance that characterized the group from the final three months of 1966 to approximately the ffas quickly followed by a falling out of favor that brought about a fairly sJtl6rp li of the issues in this industry. Thus, the group has been through a ow and now seems to be at the point from which the potential for capital 've. This now would ap- pear to be the case for TEXAS ) Texas Instruments (TXN) is one f t r t f t' lectrical-Electropics group –. operatlOn on '9, tndustry. The rapidity with which-it — increased revenues and s bears mention. From under 92 million in 1958, sales r se to 1 n st year and are expected to easily exceed 700 million this yea pe mance has been equally dramatic, with the results for the current ye a ost four times the 74 a share reported a decade ago. Earnings rose to an ic of 3.30 a share as early as 1966. Although price- earnings multipJ,es are lkely to return to the unusually high level of only two years ago, the indicated improv nt in earnings performance is expected to bear favorably on future multiples. Fears that the current controversy over defense items and military expenditures will result in cutbacks in these areas by Uncle Sam, the industry's No.1 customer, responsi- ble for about 550/0 of industry output, would appear to be somewhat unwarranted. Industry analysts argue that a Vietnam peace would be partially beneficial to the industry since the lion's share of current Government purchases are for hardware rather than for sophisti- cated products, and the resultant cutback on companies able to quickly adjust and shift to a new demand pattern should have only a temporary effect on operations. TXN is increas- ing its diversifica.tion to take advantage of the attractive potential afforded by industrial and commercial markets. Certainly the areas of data processing and TV where.the demand for integrated circuits is mushrooming offers above-average sales potential. Technically, the stock has been forming a base going back well over a year that has created an area of support between 112 and 95. This base also now provides the setting of an initial price objective around the 165 level with a higher goal readable at 185-190. Now being added to the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List, Texas Instru- ments shares are recommended for current purchase by investment-oriented accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 924.77 Dow-Jones Rails 230.39 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO., INC. HWLat This market letter IS Ilubhshed for your ('onventenee and mformatlon and 1'1 not lin offer to sell or II. '1ttilcltatlon to bu) Hny secUrities dlscussM The mformntlOn was obtained from sources we believe to be rehable, but we do not guarantee Its RccurllCY Walston &. Co, Inc, lind Its officers, directors or employees mlljt have an mterest m or purchase and .sell the 8eCurltlt'S referred to herem, WNSOI .1. 11.,.11110. . .1,11&. -!

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 16, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 16, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 16, 1969
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Walston &CO. —-Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS 1 L r;. . lABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 16, 1969 WESTERN UNION TELEGRAPH COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Pfd. Stk. (all classes) Common Stock SaleS-1969 Est. Sales-1968 .,… . Earn. Per Sh. 1969-Est. 54 112 Most of the problems in our society today 1. 40 seem to hold a distinct affinity with misunder- 2.6 standing. If through some method a formula 191,172,318 can be devised whereby misunderstanding is 1,192,531 shs. made to be outdated, so much the better we'll 8,888,000 shs. all be for it. In the meantime, however, mis- 395,000,000 understandings persist, with much of the blame 360,-100,000 -due to-the-inability of persons.,.and states 2.50 municate with one another. The ability to com- Earn. Per Sh. 1968 Mkt. Range 1969-68 2.03 58 3/8 – 31 municate, therefore, is the primary goal. WESTERN UNION (54 1/2) was founded on this need and continues to exist today in order to bet- ter service tha.t need. Its sole purpose is to provlde better communications and in this ef- fort it appears to have marshalled an impressive array of forces. Because of these forces and what we feel to be their future effect on our times and our economy, we are recom- mending the purchase of Western Union common shares by investors. The trend in recent years in areas of public service has been toward customer-to-cus- tomer services and Western Union has moved aggressively to provide these services. In this area, WU provides Telex, a fully automatic teleprinter exchange service which per- mits subscribers to dial any other subscriber and a direct connection As of year-end 1968, there were WU Telex exchanges in 4 Wlt more than 26, 100 subscribers and a waiting list of 2500 additional tio The company also provides Shared-System Ser w 1 ilize the multiple-access capabilities of the computer centers in sub e type of private communica- tions network for .-rec -keeping without major invest- – Grams, Perfume-by-Wire, t e facUities, a facsimilie service for trans- mission of communi a other graphic material, etc, also are offered. To service t e of the Federal government, WU offers AUTODIN, a nationwide comput c trol communications system for the Defense Dept., GSA Ad- vanced Record Syste to ve the civilian agencies of the government, and other systems serving the FBI, Air ather Service, NASA, Joint Chiefs of Staff, etc. Early this year, WU entered into agreement with the Bell System for the purchase of the Teletypewriter Exchange Service (TWX). If permitted by the FCC, this TWX pur- chase will permit the combination of TWX and WU Telex into a unified teletypewriter ex- change service which should substantially enhance future earnings. An earnings comeback appears to be in store for WU, based on encouraging reports for the final quarter of 1968 and the first three months of 1969. Although a recent offer- ing increased outstanding common shares by 17, no dilution in earnings is anticipated since most of the proceeds are to be used to retire debt where savings in interest charges about equal what otherwise would have been dilution. This is true only as long as WU earn ings remain free of liability for Federal Income taxes. Earnings of 2. 50 a share are estimated for' 1969, up from 2.03 lasfyear and 1. 61'1.n 1967. Further lmprovement is anticipated'for i970.; . z;,' to..tet1 fo- 711. ,n1Llw'; for lP7G. The company believes that based on its estimate of 1969 income, all dividends paid on its common stock will represent a return of capital and therefore will not be taxable as dividend income but rather as long-term gains and therefore at the lower rate prevailing for such gains. Technically, Western Union has been building a base for three years and has created an important level of support in the 48-44 area. This same base suggests a price objective at 68-70 initially, followed by a higher goal readable in the 95-100 area. In view of these promising prospects and the improving fundamentals, we are adding Western Union to the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List. Dow-Jones Ind. 894.84 Dow-Jones Rails 222.69 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO., INC. AWTHWLat Thill market letter is published for your convenJ('n('e and m(ormnhon nnd Ifl not an offer to sell or n 'IOliCltllt(m to LuI' any securll1021l The In- formation was obtained from sources we h(!1ieve to be r(!lIable. hut WI'! do not !(\Iarantee Its \Val!rton &. Co. Inc. nnd Its officers. directors or employees may have an mterest In or purchase and sell thi'! SCCUfitleo; referred to herein. WN-8() ii.' r . , , …. , -, I, ,u; ,' . .11,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 20, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 20, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 20, 1969
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Walston &Co.—–Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 20, 1969 There was little in the way of encouragement in last week's stock market per- formance. The four-week-old downswing continued unabated, with the Dow Jones Indus- trial Average slipping to a new 1969 intraday low of 873.32. Two abortive attempts at a rally were made, the first when a twelve-point slide reversed itself in the final hour of Tuesday's trading, and the Dow rose some seven pOints on a late tape. This was follow- ed by strength Wednesday morning, but the rise soon petered out and almost all of the gains were erased by the close. The slide continued on Thursday and a rather tepid rally on Friday morning was also squelched, the Dow again ending in minus territory. The viciousness and breadth of the decline coupled with the ease with which the support ar92-0900-wa-spenetrated was, qUlte-cand1dly-;–surprising toth(s -letfer. fac-C that the investment environment had deteriorated markedly since the end of last year was nothing new. In March of this year we pomted out that more stocks were in confirmed downtrends than had been the case in sometime. The number of such stocks has been in- creased even more by the recent weakness, eV1denced by the skyrocketing numbers of new 1969 lows being chalked up by individual issues – – – as of a week ago, almost 500/0 of the entire list. Still, before palsied fingers reach for the panic bcitton, it is perhaps worthwhile to make a few attempts to put the current declining stock market mto perspect- ive. Two sorts of technical measurements are relevant in the present case. The first kind attempts to gauge what the market has been doing. The second is an attempt to gauge the internal market structure and its susceptibility to a The first type of measurement – – an analysis 0 e On't rend – – – is, quite obviously, bearish. The Dow is now down 11. 30/0 1.13 in s, the ninth most serious decline in the past thirteen years, To put per ive, however, it must be noted that many declines of i are hardly remembered as great d1sasters. There were two such drop i 56, ther one in 1965, and most re- cently, the decline betwe..en R9'57 ch,.196R,which,incidentally,closel. resembles the present one of stocks declining) the rese terms of market breadth (the number more severe, although again hav- .. – ing none of the char t u eclines as those occurring in 1962, 1966, or even 1960. It is hard sion to state that the current trend 1S downward, and evidence of revers sons – ously absent. To get an id a ow far the decline may carry, however, we must turn to study- ing the market's int 1 condition and ask ourselves whether the internal factors condu- cive to a major decline are, or may be present. Let us mention just a few factors. 1. Previous major declines have, mevitably been preceded by rising confidence and an increasing multiple of earnings being paid for equities. The price-earnings ratio for the Dow over the past two years has been falling rather than rising. 2. Previous bear markets have also started when very little cash was available for investment in the hands of institutions. In the present case, institutional cash position is at record levels. 3. In the past, major bear markets had been foreshadowed by decreasing volume. Volume, so far, in this market, is remaining high. 4. Another universal precursor of previous declines has been an extremely low short interest. The present short-interest, while declining,is-still hardly at a low figure7 5. Most important, perhaps, previous bear markets have been accompanied by an almost universal deterioration in stock patterns, Despite the number of stocks in down trends, a large number of patterns are at the moment still potentially strong. It is in summary, difficult to argue against the probability of lower market levels over the near-term, At the moment, however, it is difficult to envision the present drop as a start of a major bear market, and we are inclined to suspect that the ultimate recov- ery may be as surpriEiing aEi- was the decline. Dow-Jones Ind. Dow-Jones Rails 876. 16 216.13 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO., INC. AWTat ThiS mnrk(.t l(tt('l IS \uhhthNI fOI OUI .. and .ind 1, not an offl to edl 01 a ''If)h(,ltation to hu) .lIt The In- (ormatIOn WlI, obtained from we iwh,'c to be rO,IMhle, but \\1.' do not gunl.lntcc Its \alston &. Co. Jnr an.l It; officcls. dlrcttor, or employees rna) have an Interest In or purchase nll'\ !;ell the Ietrl cd to herein

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 27, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 27, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 27, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 27, 1969 For those who believe that market bottoms must be active affairs with late tapes and all the classical signs of a selling climax, last week's action offered little to confirm the hope that a bottom had been reached. The Dow-Jones Industrials staged another minor rally from noon Monday to noon Tuesday, but spent the rest of the week sliding off and posted a new closing low on Friday at 869. 76, although the intra-day lows on Monday, Thursday and Friday were at around the same level. For whatever it is worth, the Dow showed the least favorable picture of the market. On both Thursday and Friday the S&P 500 advanced, there were more advances than declines, and upside volume, as measured by Quotron, exceeded dr-oiwsen.sid-e volume. – – -tQl5N-k-1-l-t.it.though,it.was,hardly.a.vigorous.mar.ket It would be difficult, in view of last week's action, to assert with any confidence that the nadir of the stock market slide had been reached. Indeed, based on past experience, probabilities actually favor a lower market over the near-term. However, — and it is im- portant to understand the distinction, — the proposition that stocks have reached what will ultimately prove to be an attractive buying level, is a good deal easier to defend. Let us see if we cannot document this proposition a bit further. As we noted in last week's letter, the market had, by the low of last Monday, reached what can be called a deeply oversold position and had, by the end of that week, rallied sharp ly from that position. Now, the term oversold is one of the more abused in the stock mar- ket lexicon, but we refer here to the number of declining stocks over a relatively short pe- riod measured against the number of issues traded. without going into de- tail, that prior to this year, the market had reached a co a a level only fiftee times since 1956. ((0 The dates of the fifteen occurrences are t e w. In each case, the dat is three days after the maximum oversold condition ea ,making it comparable to the close of Thursday of this week. The falr ere sting. The first column 11 e tly.-r.eached-1ow.Ascanbeseen, the market did, in fact, move on t een occasions, and on three of those occasions a further . What is more interesting, howeve is the percentage chang . months later and a year later. In thirteen cases out of fifteen, the ar w,' e x months after the registration of an oversold positio comparable to that k in fourteen cases out of fifteen, it was higher a year later. The numerous arp es recorded document the fact that conditions such as those evidenced this week hav een present at every major bottom in recent market history. This is a record that is dif cult to ignore. CHANGE IN DJIA Date At Next Low Six Months Later One Year Later 6/4/56 10/4/56 10/24/57 9/23/59 9/30/60 6/7/62 6/27/62 10/4/62 10/31/62 6/17/65 5119/66 8/3/66 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 – 11 0 -4 0 -5 – 15 – 12 2 1 6 -1 19 7 21 22 22 9 -9 2 4 -3 24 -6 21 21 33 27 29 2 1 8 9/1/66 -6 7 13 10/12/66 -1 13 19 2/21/68 -3 9 10 Whether this week's action will-constitute a major bottom such as 1957,1960,1962 and 1966, an intermediate turning point such as those of 1956, 1965 or 1968, or a prelude to lower prices such as 1959 or May 1966 is, at the moment, difficult to say and the answer will probably be afforded only by subsequent action. It would appear, however, that an interesting juncture lies just around the corner. ANTHONY W TABELL Dow-Jones Ind 869.76 Dow-Jones R81ls 212.62 WALSTON & CO INC .. This market letter IS Ilubhshed for your convcnll'nce nnd mfO malmn nnd 1'1 not fin offer to aell 01 It '1oltutntlon to buy lin) M'euTltles dlscua'Joo The Informntlon WII'! obtamed from source!! we hellevl' to be rl'it.ll.l', but we do not gUHrantec its accuracy Wtlston . Co, Inc und Its officers. duectors or employees may have an Ultercat m or Jlurchase alld sell the SeCUritLes referred to herem. WN.sol ..an. aiLi ,'lUi'aa& Ii ….Wi ..

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