Viewing Month: October 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 03, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OF..FICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS /1.- C TABEll'S MARKET LETTER October 3, 1969 For a while, at least, the 800 level in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average appeared to hold some magic for the market. This level, let it be remembered, wa s the low that had turn ed back three declining phases during the past two months. On Thursday, the Dow again ap- proached 800, reaching an hourly bottom of 801. 81. That afternoon a rally on good volume ensued and the average, whlch had been off better than five points, wound up almost five points on the plus side. The rally followed through on Friday morning, but falled to hold its ground and Friday's close was mixed – the Dow showing a three point loss. Amid this confusion, a few basic facts should be remembered (1) The market is, ,we believe, m the process of forming a base, and this will be true regardless of whether -the 800 levcl ispenetrated or not. ispenetraied;-rns'un– likely to be breached by a substantial amount. (2) In any case, a good deal more time will be required before the market moves ahead substantially. Paradoxically, less time would probably be required were a new low to be made, as this would probably produce wide fluctuations which would speed up the accumula- tion process. Another three to four months around present levels is a distinct probability. (3) The time required to complete new bases will vary widely among individual stocks and different issues will reach their ultimate lows and! or support levels at di!ferent times during the base formation period. The sensible course in such an environment is to build up a fully-invested position in attractive issues by purchasing these stocks as individual support levels are reached. We suggested such a buying program in our September 19th date eight stocks have been added to our list under this program. They are, with t el r&ended prices Dixilyn (28), Great West. Financial (25), Merck (95)Bt.o a a s t e r (140), Pittston (65), Tishman Realty (30), Union Carbide (41 3!8), 011,. (32) reviewed below. GROLIER, INC., one of the largest PUb5irSs er books in the world, is ridin a rising tide of hunger for education and kno res g in record sales and earnings for the 0 Lworksarethe….2.0-3.01umeJilew Booj of Knowledge and the A new 50-volume set of the World Great Classics has just been i t 0 18-volume set of the French Book of Know- ledge and a S ge ernational Encyclopedia now are in progress. Foreign sales hav e p' in recent yeaI'ls and now constitute more than 25 of total revenues. 1969 is expected 0 b ecord year for both sales and earmngs. The sharp rise of 17 in first-half sales was in large part to a lessening of tenslOns and civil unrest, factors that made many people unwilling even to open their doors to Grolier salesmen last year. The company derives approximately two-thlrds of revenues from the sale of publications made on a door-to-door basis. Management estimates that 1969 revenues will approximate 195 mil- lion, up from 181 million last year, while per share earnings are expected to come close to 2.25 a share, exceeding the old hlgh of 2. 20 set back in 1966, and well above last year's 1. 79. Further improvement is being prOJected for 1970. Some mcrease in the 90 annual dividend is anticipated in 1970. Future earnings should be aided by recent moves to enter th low-cost housing and mobile homes industries via development of a trailer park in Texas. The World War II babies now are at the marrying and family formation stage, and t,hey belong to a generation that has put education and learning high on the must list. The birth rate also has started-to-turn upa-gain, and 1969 is.li-kely to be the best year in this respect since the late 1940's. All this seems to augur well for the long-range prospects of GroUer and other publishers. Technically, Grolier, recently added to the Price Appreciation section of our Recom- mended List at a price of 32, shows a strong area of downside support in the 30-25 area, where It is believed that accumulation has been going on for more than one year. ThIS congestion area has formed a base enabling the projectlOn of a price objective at 48, approximately 50 above current market levels. Groller again is recommended for purchase in in- vestment accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 808.41 Dow-Jones Rails 196.07 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb ThIS market lettcr I! puhlJ'Ihcd for Your convemen('c tnd IllfoJIll,\tmll all' 1'.. not nn to'lf'1I 01 lL .,,,iUltltUn to ;,ecuntlt's ,hscussed The in- formation WlI'I oLUunl't fl0m 'OUlU'l we hphl'vl' to be teh,IIlIi, hut we do not J.,.U'lll\ntec .(lOur.I.'V, \Vnhtoll &. Co, Inc IIn,1 Ih officuH, dllcctor.; or employee!! may have un interest In or I'UI chase !Inri sell the \lllll. I ('f.. rre,1 to h.. 1ell) WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 10, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS -….TABELL'S MARKET LETTER'- .. – … October 10, 1969 Since this is a technical market letter, many readers will, we suppose, expect us to go into a long dissertation about this week's testing of the 800 level in the Dow-Jones In- dustrials and to issue a forecast as to whether this supposed bastion will, in fact, withstand the assaults of enraged sellers. Frankly, we couldn't care less. Moreover, we think the market agrees with us. The momentary penetration of 800 at noon Thursday, was accompanied by nothing more than yawns and decreased volume. When it became apparent that the sky was, in fact, not fallmg, prices immediately firmed and were somewhat stronger on Friday. 1Despite the action of the,Dow, of course,it .is, obvious.thaLthe.market levels reached, on July 29th were not, in fact, being tested at all'this week. Only 125 issues made new 1969 lows on Thursday, as contrasted to 732 new lows posted on July 28th. Moreover, the intra- day low on the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index was 91. 75 vs. 88. 04 at the end of July, with the New York Stock Exchange Index showing a comparable disparity. It should be ob- vious that the investor who is spending a lot of time worrying about the 800 level, could profitably be turning his energies in a number of other directions. We have reiterated our attitude concerning the present stock market in previous edi- tions of this letter. It is, 1n sum, that the market is presently forming a base for an advanc to begin at some future date. At the present time, 1t is impossible to make projections as to how far this advance might carry. What is beginning to emerge at the moment is a serie of clues about the nature and shape of the base formatlOn and the likely behavior of indivi- dual stocks while the formation is taking place. Let us theme a bit further. Base formations can be relattvely wild, vlOlent affa' swings back and fort or they can be more protracted periods with g h ract ed by relatively light volume. We are conditioned by recent experience to ormer e. Both the 1962 and 196 bottoms involved relatively wide swings and . 01 a rather sizeable penetration of the inittal climactic low. The initial low in as e in August and this was later br-oken in-October.-In'1962;-there p' nthrusts'after'the May-selling climax, a move to a new low in the May low in October. action is, so far, refusmg to confor t o\j;li'ese patterns. In 1966, a new low was made 24 days after the 1 i 62 a new low was posted within 11 trading days. ' All of these new 1 P recoveries. The Dow recovered 6.3 following the May 1962 low and 6. How' the August 1966 low. In the present case, the Dow in September recovered nl . from the July 29th bottom, but as of the moment, 51 tradin days after the sellin ax, no new low has been posted. All this is obviously descriptive of a period in which the fluctuations are less v101ent ' and in a narrower range than in any of the two previous market bottoms. In order to find a base formation period that is comparable, we have to go back a number of years to 1957-58. In this instance, the climax low reached in October of 1957 proved to be the ultimate bottom and the market spent some six months scraping along th1S bottom on relatively light volume before any sort of an advance was able to get under way. If the 1957-58 parallel continues to be followed, we can, at the moment, look for very little action in the averages, a protracted trading range perhaps extending well into the firs quarter of 1970. However, one additional characteristic of 1957-58 is worth noting. During that period, there were large numbers of issues Wh1Ch remained relatively unaffected by the bear market and wh.i'ch, during'the period the averages were'basing out, were al- ready well on their way to new highs. This was true at the time of most drug, tobacco re- tailing, food, and utility issues, and it is interesting to note that these issues not only con- tinued to move ahead uninterruptedly during the base formation, but were the leaders once the 1958 advance got under way. The comparable action being displayed at the moment by Office Egmpment, Drug, Cosmetics, Savings & Loans, and certain Retailing issues, is striking; and it may well be that a great many stocks in this category have already embarke on bull markets of their own. In other words, while 1t is too early to get excited about im- mediate general market prospects, we think that more and more stocks are beginning to show up as attractive capital gains vehicles. Dow-Jones Ind. 806.96 Dow-Jones Rails 196.09 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket I, tter IS for your ,mri mform.llIon Ilnol not 1\11 offc' to 1(.11 OJ .1 formatIOn WII!!I oblmncd from we Iwlu\', to bL Hllllhlt. hut WI.! do not Inlarantee Its .ICCUla'\ A mil, have an mtereet m or Jurcha.st .md sell the St'!.Ulltt!5 ref'.!t nl 10 hCl m W T amD to bu) illlY '(j, unties JI,,(USSed The ill\\'.Ilston 8. Co, Inc lind Its officers. dLrectors or WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 17, 1969
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Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABEll'S MARKEl lETTER October 17, 1969 The stock market this week demonstrated one of its more engaging characteristics .,the ability to find an excuse to do what it was already obviously about to do in the first place The operative excuse in this particular instance was peace, and we duly celebrated a peace rally. It was a pretty good one too. The Dow advanced 12 points on Monday, opened with a gap on Tuesday, and tacked on another 13 points. Then, after some digestion at mid-week, another 14 points was added on Thursday when news of the Hanoi secret-talk proposals appeared. On both Tuesday and Thursday, almost 20 million shares were traded. – -.Some-mild.profit taking,entered.thesceneIate. were rejected. So, despite the fact that we are just about as close to peace today as we – were a week ago, the averages now find themselves some 30 points higher. It was, of course; the -flimsiest sort of an excuse, and it would, 'indeed, have made just as much sense to say that the market was going up because the New York Mets were winning the World Series. The real reason for the market advance went largely unnoticed. At the beginning of last week the market was trading close to its lows for the year, having spent most of the first 7 months of 1969 in a precipitous decline. The reasons for this decline were obvious enough — fear of a recession and worry over the effects of anti- inflationary measures. During the decline, cash available for equity investment in the hands of institutions had built up to near-record levels. QUite obviously, at some level or another, the collective judgment of the market place was be that the worst that could be seen had already been thoroughly discounted, an e all going to be Throughout August, September and October it becal)1 inc e Sl e' nt that that level was at around 800 in the Dow-Jones. Thus, a t 00 el needed no real rationale and the market simply seized on the most enie xcuse lying around; The question we must now –rio;sly alters the-stock market outiO -. – – ew the week's market strength months.-It-(struetnat 8t the sehighs on Thursday all of the out of the long trading ranges that had characterized them thro gh th . e p r )1 July. If the market follows through with these breakouts, it i e t ad upside targets for the various indices. The Dow pattern is so upside objectives varying between 852 and 885. The more broadly based e ge ve more definite patterns. It is possible to project the Standard & Poor's Indus Index, now at 105, to around 115; and the Standard & Poor's 500, now at 95, to und 102. Having mentioned these objectives, we must confess that, at this stage of the market, we are not sure of their significance. It is possible that the rally might carry to these targets in a sharp, straight-line sort of a move, but we think it unlikely. We are still inclined to go along with our original assumption that more time will be required to complete a base for a larger advance to take place during 1970. The bottom limit of that base has now been pretty well defined as 800, and we suspect that at the moment the market is trying to define an upper limit for the base formation. During this period, most stocks will be completing their accumulation patterns while some, in which the accumulatton is complete, start on major upside moves. It is identifying the stocks in this latter category which will be the major task for the investor in the months ahead. NOTE Four additional stocks were added to our Recommended List two weeks ago under the buying program outlined in our letter of September 19th. They are, with their recommended prices Atlas Chemical (27), Faberge (32), International Business Machines (340) and Sears Roebuck (66). Dow-Jones Ind. 836.06 Dow-Jones Rails 199.56 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This matket letter IS Imblished for your conVerllefllt!' and mforrmitlon lind 1'1 not an offer to sell or tt sohCltation W bl,l) flny se1UnllC6 dll;cw;sed. The m- formatIOn wns obtnmed frgm oourees we hf'lLcve to be rehable. bl.lt we do not guarantee lts accurl\CY Walston & Co Inc and Its oflk.ers directors or emploees may have an IntercBt In or pur!!hase and sell the .!.ecuritles to herem WN.801

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 24, 1969
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Walston &- Co. lnc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 7rfr – i..Eln October 24, 1969 The evidence is now glaring — and the investor ignores it at his peril. July 29, 1969 constituted, in all probability, a major bottom in the stock market. Now, we are well aware of the fact that nothing in the equity market is ever a 100 certainty, but last week's market strength unquestionably seemed to provide the final affir- mation of a long-held contention — that the past three months have constituted part of a base formation which will, ultimately, lead to higher market levels. Strength continued un- abated in this week's trading, with the Dow scoring a 3-point advance on Monday, a 7-point advance on Tuesday and, finally,a 13-point advance on Wednesday. Weakness which brought the Index down 10 points in early trading Thursday was erased that afternoon and the next day, with anew high of 868. By mid-week the market had reached what may be termed an extreme-overbought condition on a short-term basis. On that day, the average plurality of advances over decline for the previous ten days was 385 or 24 of the average number of issues traded. This is a rare occurrence and is typical only of rallies which take place following major market bot- toms. It has occurred only six times previously in the past 13 years; in January 1958, three times at successively higher levels following the 1962 bottom, in January 1967 and most re- cently in April 1968. In all cases, a worthwhile advance ultimately followed the occurrence. Now, admittedly, the very fact of the market's being overbought indicates the prob- ability that the upswing will run out of steam on a short-term basis in the near future. How- ever, the most probable aftermath could be a period of consolidation perhaps going on into early 1970 rather than a substantial correction. We feel offer an excellent chance to take a fully invested position. of consolidation wil st cks in which we would favor accumulation on weakness is the FABERGE … (37 1/4) Few industries have prpyE;4. the ves as well insulated again the effects of economic cycles as has the c02s . For the last decad'e, sales have been growing at an annual rate -sumer disposableincome-but-change – n- —-0, e ing not only the steady rise in con- (CJf- lie-of-the American-population;-Today;- the male population, here as a started to spend a greater part of his in- come on such 15ie of success has bee t e e v s, deodorants, bath soaps, etc. The sweet sme just granted. As a leader 1 benefited from the sh an cosmetic field, Faberge, formerly Rayette-Faberge, has is hair spray use in recent years. Rayette Aqua-Net, the com pany's leading brand in field, has been the nation's top selling brand for several years, accounting for about 0 of the total domestic market. In addition to the various lines of hai products, produced by the Rayette, Tip Top and Caryl Richards divisions, Faberge also manufactures such popular items as lip sticks and nail glaces (a more sophisticated name for nail polishes), Kiku Japanese-inspired bath items, Brut, Woodhue and Aphrodisia men's shaving and bath products. A new line of fragrances, cosmetics and bath items is slated for introduction this Fall under the name Xanadu, and should be of help to nubile men and wome Sales and earnings have been improving steadily in recent years with the current pro- jection for 1969 calling for revenues to rise to near 140 million, vs. 130.4 million last year, and earnings are expected to approximate 1. 70 a share, compared with 1. 52 in 1968 Considering that the final quarter of the year, encompassing the busy Christmas buying sea- son, normally is the best by far, the earnings may exceed the estimated level by a small a-mount. Either way the outlook remains highly favorable-for a continuation-of-this impressiv — trend well into the foreseeable future. One leading advisory service is on record as antici- pa-Ling earnings well above the 2.00 level during the 1972-1974 period. Judging from past action, it would not be surprising to us to see this earnings level reached in the 1970-1971 period. Technically, FBG has formed an area of congestion in the low 30' s tllat goes back over a year. Not only does this base area form considerable downside support, but it also enables the projection of a price objective around the 55-60 area. Already on the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List, Faberge again is recommended for purchase by invest- ment-oriented accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 862.26 Dow-Jones Rails 201.23 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. This mnrket letter 18 published for Jour convemence and InformatIOn Hl1d IS not an offr to sell or n soliCitatIOn to bu any secuntles dlSCUSqed The m- fonnatlOn was obtamed flom sources we helleve to be rehahle, but we do not guarantee Its a'CUrRcy \Vnlston lL Co. Inc anll lb, officers. directors or cmplo)cc'l may have Rn mterest In or pUl'lhltSl' and set! the 'amb referred to herem WNsol

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - October 31, 1969
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Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Prine, pal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER October 31, 1969 After reaching a new high at 868 in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average last Friday, the market was subject to profit taking most of the week and moved back to an intra-day low of 839.82 on Thursday before strength on Thursday afternoon and Friday era sed half of the week's losses. Considering the overbought condition mentioned in last week's letter, the most probable outlook for the foreseeable future is a senes of extended swings back and forth — probably centering around the 860 area. Durmg this period, individual issues wlll pursue their own patterns, and periods of weakness should be used for accumulation. One 1.. stock suitable for such acC1t1JJlUlahuntillstreYi-ewed below. -THE NATIONALCASH-R-EGISTER…COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock 145 1/8 1. 20 O. 8 319,600,268 10,330,675 shs. It would appear that few companies have as much going for them as Natbnal Cash Register has going for it. After IBM, NCR is the largest and most important factor in the offic equipment field. It has held the major share of the cash register market for a long time Sales-1969 Est. 1. 245 billion and now seems about to expand its already Sales-1968 1. 102 billion large overseas market in this area as switch- Earns. Per Sh. 1969-E Earns. Per Sh. 1968 4.20 4.35 3 74 . ing over to the decimal system takes place throughout the United Kingdom. In to benefit from its Mkt. Range 1969-1968 154 1/4 – 99 1/2 increasingl tr ry position in the h ne , an area expected to show unusually large production gains during the 197'o(sifASupp . nd services connected with the cash register and accounting at9I a nt for a considerable portion of revenues, which is fully expected to parall hin es growth in the years ahead. . –Only a few -years -i . at -into the computer-'ring.–It intro- – ' duced its latest line in March ing area have risen shar y wit lka. in the electronic data processrs computer-related products now accounting for between 15 and 2 0 e . Trade sources have suggested that NCR has the potential to double market within the next four years. The company has been highly selective 1 ap ch to the computer and EDP markets in general and has sought to concentrate on oping business in the financial and retailing industries, where it already had long-stan' favorable relations with customers. Earnings have been in an erratic trend in recent years, largely due to costs related to the computer business. Heavy initial depreciation charges on recent computer placements and the still high introductory costs are expected to keep results under some pressure. However, 1969 earnings results are expected to witness the first breakout from the 2. 50 to 4.00 earnings plateau that has been maintained for ten years. Current estimates call for earnings to rise to between 4.20 and 4.35 a share, from the 3.74 reported for last year. One leading advisory service has gone on record as projecting NCR's earnings for the 1972-1974 period to above the 7.00 a sh'tre level. Technically, there is substantiahon for the fundamental enthusiasm in this situation. When NCR moved above the 140 level in September, it broke.o.ut of a trading range that.kept the stock confined to an area between 140 and 110 for more than a year. This base area not only now creates a formidable support zone limiting downside potential, but it also enables the proJection of a price goal at 175 initially. Recently added to the Quality and Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List when it temporarily dipped slightly below the 140 level in late September, the shares of National Cash Register Company again are recommended for purchase at preyaiUng mar-ket… Dow-Jones Ind. 855.99 Dow-Jones Rails 200.20 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb ffThis market I,ttel 19 I'uhlu,hld 01 'Olll ('OIl\l'IlIUlI'C mil n'OImnt1fHl lind ,.. not ,In to 1'1(11 01 l ..IJ(ll.ltWIl in Iou\' lin L('uI,llllI The tn- fOlmatJon Wf\'I ol.otl\lllPd Clom we hrI'v. to he It'h,II,.., hut '\L ,I not b'1Il1,wtl't. Lh,lIl'(,'u1';H\ \\',lI;;tol1 l.. Co 1111'. ,md it .. officer'!, ,IUI-dort or emplove!', mllv have IIIl IIItt'rCBt III 01 IIUIf'h.I;'It' .Ind sell the .. 1 to herelJl, WN.301

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