Viewing Month: August 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 01, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 01, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - August 01, 1969
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Walston &Co. – – – – – Inc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 1, 1969 We concluded last week's edition of this letter by saying – The stage, therefore, 1S set. Downside objectives are beginning to be reached, stocks are at low levels, and the timing is about right. However, any evidence of a change in the downside momentum of today' stock market is still waiting, as of this writing, in the wings. This week, the evidence began to emerge from the wings. The week began in the dreary fashion to which investors have become accustomed. The Dow chalked up an almost 12-point loss on Monday, and, after a feeble rally attempt Tlesday morning, dropped another 4 points by the close. This decline continued in Wednes- day's early morning trading with the Dow reaching an intra-day low at mid-week at 788.07. —Noontime''OriWednesday,liowever, marKedtlie turn. 1'1ieDow erased a 9-poiiit-lossto c1ose with a small gain, and extended this with advances of over 11 points on both of the final two trading days of the week. The total advance from low to high was 55 points in two and one- half trading days. Is this, then, conclusive evidence that the downtrend has been reversed The answer must be no —for the reasonthatlhere has simply not been enough time for such evidence.to be conclusive. What can be said, however, is that the action of the past two and one-half days is totally consistent with the theory that a major bottom has been seen. Let us enumerate some of the favorable features of the rally. First of all, market breadth. On both Thursday and Friday more than 1100 stocks, better than 70 of the total traded, advanced. (The 1183 advancing issues on Friday constituted the highest total in the history of the Stock Exchange). This type of unusual occurred on each initial rally following each major low in the stock market 0 years. It is paren- thetically only the second time in 13 years that the a' fi,(stocks has been this high for two consecutive days — additlOnal evidence e dee ersold condition that existed at the mid-week lows. Volume, in ,w a' ctory. It extended to over 15 million shares on Wednesday and Friday id ove is t. tho million on Thursday. This statisti sents a satisfactory rise Despite all this, a we' i , of volume on the last leg down. is not totally conclusive, and only time will provide confi m area has been reached. It is worth enumerating some of the things – or to provide such evidence over the coming period. We would watch, firs 1, e a conclusive penetration of the downtrend channel which has characterized the ar since May. This could take place were the advance to continue next week or, as a rna of fact, if the market were simply to hold its gains over the comin few tradtng sessions. Further 1mportant evidence of a bottom having taken place would be provided by a sharply reduced number of stocks making new lows. It would be highly en- couraging if the number of daily new lows were to drop off to around the 50 level and stay there for a period of time. This would confirm that almost all stocks had exhausted their downside momentum on the recent decline. Another encouraging factor over the next week or two would be a buildup in the level of odd-lot short sales, a number which generally in- creases shortly after major market bottoms. A final evidence would be provided by the ability of our short-term breadth/volume figures to reach an historical overbought condition. Since most of these are based on 10-day totals, such action could hardly occur before mid- August, at the Jatest. – -It iswell to remember,- also, downswing were to have been made as of last Wednesday, that an immediate advance from these levels would be unlikely. The most bullish near-term prognosis that it is possible to come up with 1S continue backing and filltng around the present area in order to build a base for a further market ad- vance. When and if the evidence continues to pile up that the decline has been completed, there will be plenty of time to assess the prospects for the future. Dow-Jones Ind. 826. 59 Dow-Jones Rails 199.31 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thi8 market l(!tter IS pubhshed for )'our convenHmce find InformatIOn And 1' not .\11 ofTet to 01 '1ohcltatJon to buy 1m …..'('untles lhscussed The In. formation WA'I obtamed from sources Vol' heh'\'(, to be rehable hut we do not gUAr.-mtec Its acc-ural') \Valslon & Co. Inc and Its officers. dIrectors or employees may have an mterest m or Ilunhllse and sell the refClrC(t to

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 08, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 08, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - August 08, 1969
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W—-a–l–s-tIoncn—&—C–o. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVErt 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS — ! TABEll'S MARKET lETTER Q. Is this a technical rally within a bear market Q. Is this a new bull market A. No. Q. Have the lows been seen A. Maybe. August 8, 1969 A. No. The above represent the most probable answers to the three questions most commonly asked about today's stock market, and they derive from what, historically, has been normal technical action following a severe decline. Following such a decline, a base must be form- ed for a new advance and this process takes time — generally up to six months. Therefore, the question about a new bull market can be decidedly answered in the negative. The initial stage of such abase formation isgenerallya sellingcltmax of whii'hthe action of a week ag is typical. Such action is much more characteristic of the beginning of a baElEithan a in an ongoing decline. Thus the no answer to the first question.As to whether the ultimate lows have been reached, it is necessarily to remain equivocal. A base has always involved some sort of a test of the climax lows. At recent bottoms, i. e., 1962 and 1966, these lows have been penetrated. In previous bottoms, such as 1957 and 1960, they were not. The ex- istence of lower downsk!et0bJeltt-ilveEmIremIlDshindtces makes a penetration of the former low,s at least a possibility. ' In such an environment, the obvious course is to purchase stocks on weakness and to refuse to chase rallies. Among the issues in our Recommended List which would be attract- ive in periods of decline are the following. VORNADO (19 1/2).Things are looking up for this important food retailer and discount chain operator. Although second quarter results will West Coast stores and the phasing out of ten Ummart unit. H strike at some all Vornado divisions now are in the black, management is OPti!jiC 0 es or the fiscal year ending next January 31. Although record sales and n come i ticipated, per share re- sults are estimated at between 1. 90 and 1965. Industry analysts are optimistic over som at w the per share record of sult proaching the 2.20 a share level –F-rom-the -technical-view, VNO has upSIde price objectives KYSOR INDUSTRIAL (26 ) . rt in the-l7—1-5a-rea.–Longer–term— i l \li&3Jl–J6i II 0 range. e ec&;p'r sharp market decline worked its effect on KZ along with most liste s I t ontinuing impressive earnings trend. Results for the fiscal year en ere 1. 62 a share, up slightly from 1. 57 for the pre- vious twelve months. eve, anagement recently forecast sharply higher earmngs for the three months to en A st 31, projecting 43; a share, vs. 25; for the similar period a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending next May 31, management is estimating a rec- ord 2.10. Sales are expected to advance to near 66 million, from the 56.8 million of fiscal 1969. Downside support in the 25-22 area has been augmented by recent backing and filling action. ALLIED SUPERMARKETS (143/8). Although competitive pressures remain evident in some of ASU' s marketing areas, modest improvement has been noted in Detroit, an area highly important to this supermarket chain. Results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 1969, are likely to see a decline to around the 40; a share level, from 84; in fiscal 1968. These results obscure the progress being made with the K-Mart division, which is well in the blac with profitability steadily increaSing. There now are 190 K-Marts and another 65 are sched- uled to be added in fiscal 1970. As a result of this, fiscal 1970 is expected to be much better for ASU with'sales likely to expand well above the-1- billion' mark. Technically, ASU has – support on the downside around the 10 level. PARKE DAVIS (325/8) .. One of the few stocks to have bucked the market downtrend this year, PDC continues to bask in the light of sigmficant developments. The Chloromyeetin problem is becoming increasingly less important to overall operations and for ,the current year should account for only 12 of total sales. At the same time other products have been increasing their market penetration. Three new products could prove important to future operations (1) a rubella vaccine (German measles), (2) improved influenza vaccine and (3) an anesthetic that does not affect blood pressure or respiration rates. These all should be introduced in the near future. Earnings are benefiting from a vigorous cost control program and for the 1969 year, net may reach 1. 55 a share, vs. 1. 25 last year. Considerable down side support has been created by recent stock activity in the 31-28 area and the initial up- side objective remains in the mid-40's. Dow-Jones Ind. 824.46 f I – ANTHONY W. W. LAUBSCHE Dow-.ToneR Rails 197.81 WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS maTket letter is JJU1JJI;hcd for your alLd InfOllnatlOn Itnd IS not ,In ofT., to ;( UI .1 ,olullat,OlI lo bu\ ,ul) ,h;(Utf'd Tho.' 111- formation WII'I obtain cd from we hdH'V to hc rell,llll.,. hut v. L do lIot 1-.'1.111 lis ,('LUI,\( W.t11.011 &. Co. 1m. find It ufficel, .hrettor… 01 employees n'lll.y have nn Jnterest In or purcha.c .\lId sell the W(UIJtJC, rt,rtrlcd to heJl'lll WN.30t

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 15, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 15, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - August 15, 1969
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange and Other PrincIpal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER August 15, 1969 Those who bring sunshine to the lives of others cannot keep it from themselves. …. Barri It would appear from the market action of recent days that at least a temporary testing of the recent lows around the 800 DJ level has been successful. This should give way to a rally of indeterminate proportions on a near-term basis. Overhead supply is evident around 830 and 850-860 levels. This does not rule out the possibility of another test later on. In either event, it would seem likely that the market will be engaged in a backing and filling operation for several months ahead, offering investors ample opportumty to add to holdings. One current opportunity is described below. – ',11!;c – -….1-k-,j Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock Sales-1968 Sales-1969-E. Earn. Per Sh. -1968 Earn. Per Sh. -1969-E Mkt. Range 1968-69 36 7/8 0.10 0.3 16,000,000 3,936,348 shs.';' 16 400 000 22' 000' 000 1. 50 2.20 54 – 35 3/4 The merger between MESA PETROLEUM COMPANY and Hugoton Production is expected to result in an above-average performance with- in the oil and gas mdustry in coming years. The combination of Mesa's young and aggressive management with the stable earning power and large assets of Hugoton strongly suggest a. favor able outcome to this particular marriage contract. Mesa is a young company, having been form ed as recently as 1964, with the corporate object (Fully diluted basis) lve to an ev and geophysical f oil and gas prop- erties, acquire leases and other interests in such , d t termine the presence or absence of commerCial values by drilling wells ol'1\tfro/)se pr ties. The results of this objective have been favorable. The ll9S/be lmpressive with profit growth averagmg in excess of 25 annually .y – — -For'thefiscal'ye-ar enden-i\-prii' 1 evenues-reached-a-record'high-of – – 16,404,476, while net from 5.8 million the previous twelve months. This comes do to . e;Vs. 1. 48 the previous year. These results in- clude the merger on r 1 ugoton Production on a pooling of interest basis. The company has switched from an April 30th fiscal year to a calen- dar year basis. On t si or the six months ended June 30,1969, net income totaled 3, 3 million, equal to share, vs. 2. 9 million, or 74; a share on somewhat more shar outstanding for the fi six months of 1968. Gross revenues for the first half of 1969 de- clined slightly from the same period a year earlier. For the twelve months ending Decem- ber 31,1969, record earnings of around 2.20 a share are estimated on a fully diluted basis of 3,936,348 shares. Fully diluted basls assumes complete conversion of all outstanding convertible debentures and preferred stocks. The 5 1/2 convertible debentures are conver ible into common stock at the rate of 43.31 prinCipal amount of debenture per share. If any reason can be given for recent weakness in MSA, we would ascribe to the idea tha Hugoton holders, which received vrSA shares as a result of the merger, were more income oriented and thus did not care to retain MSA shares due to the low yield. The merged company now controls huge reserves of natural gas located in Kansas.Sinc to date lit has limited its sales of natural gas to it has aVOided coming under control of the Federal Power Commission. However, it is anticipated that sales to other areas will be made .in futur.e.With,drilling and of the picture,due-to the merger, the effective tax rate is expected to be lower. Management recently noted the expanding demand for gas throughout the nation and the critical shortage of gas supply'for interstate carriers and voiced an optimistic note for in- dependent producers with uncommitted reserves. Mesa has more than 1/2 trillion cubic feet of undedicated gas reserves and it anticipates being able to sell this gas under highly de- sirable contractual terms within the year. Technically, the recent decline has brought MSA down into a strong support zone betwee 38 and 34, going a long way toward lowering downslde risk. On the upside, we continue to hoI to an mitial price objective in the mid-to-upper 40' s, with a higher reading on a longer-term basis at 60 to 73. Mesa, already on tile Speculative Price Appreciation section of our Recom mended List, again is recommended for purchase at current market. ', .. Ind. 820.88 … ,. Dow-Jones Rails 198.12 TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIEl marl..et 1,ttL! 1' puhh&hcd fnJ lonYl'l11L'rlre and lur'm.lb .llId I nt ,II /f,, to (11.1 …,,11 11M,,, to \'Il\' fmmntlon …..18 ollRlnttl from '1tll 1'lu,, to hl 1,II.\I,lt. I,ut w,' ,In lIlt J,UIl,\lIlt. ,I.. ,'U, l\ \\'Itoll Co. Jilt' employees may have an Interetlt In )r I,urrh,\l' ,Iml bell thl' 'UIII … 111'111,.,110 hIlll HWLamb 'It… , U I I ! I I ' , The 1/1 I It… oflhI, dlrttort 01 WN'ot I ,L ,d ,IU,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 22, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 22, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - August 22, 1969
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Walston &- Co. Inc –…;.– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 22, 1969 The stock market extended its rebound from the oversold position of last July in the past week, turning in what must be characterized as a reasonably impressive performance. Solid advances were chalked up on Monday and Tuesday and after some consolidation at mid- week, the upswing continued in more restrained fashion with the Dow-Jones Industrials reaching a high of..8d3.. July 30th intra-day low of 788. 07. It has been something better than three weeks, now, since that low was made, and as the growl of the bear recedes further into the distance, it is worthwhile to stand back and try to put the current stock market into perspective. The benchmarks are, at the mo- ment, actually rather clear–and;-if we assume by-tbe which characterized the post-war period, a few fairly obvious conclusions can be drawn as to the market's future. .. n The first and most obvious fact is that the action of the last week in July had all of the characteristics of a typical selling climax. More than 1100 Issues, 650/0 of the total number of issues traded, made new lows for the week, and this was followed by two days of a sharp rebound with 700/0 of issues traded advancing on July 31st and August 1st. Similar conditions have occurred at three, and only three, periods in the recent past — in October 1957, May of 1962 and August of 1966. All three of these periods will be recalled as times when the stock market was in the process of making major bottoms. However, lest joy become unconfined at this prospect, let us take a close look at the action of the market in each of these periods. The for each of the three previous bottoms, and for 1969 to date, the w'7rJdy a; '0 I dthe climax was recorded \'y the week in which 1957 1962 6 1969 Week DJIA New Week DJIA New k New Week DJIA Ended 10/25/57 9/;66 11/1/57 432 180 6/8/ 775 420 8/8/69 821 11/8/57 434 0 9/16/66 795 165 8/15/69 809 11/15/57 430 2 / 3 425 9/23/66 791 220 8/22/69 827 11/22/57 432 160 /6 5 620 9/30/66 772 480 11/29/57 435 100 10/7/66 744 780 12/6/57 447 100 12/13/57 438 205 12/20/57 426 325 New 189 238 N/A A few patterns are clearly noticeable. In all cases, a move to or through the initial low took place following the climax. In 1962 and 1966 new lows were posted on the average- in the first instance, four weeks later and 70/0 below the climax lows and, in the second, six weeks later and 30/0 lower. Comparable figures for the current market would be 745 and 778. In 1957, the old low was virtually equalled some eight weeks later. The figures for new lows, however, are interesting. In all three previous cases the number of weekly new lows at the second downward move was considerably less than it had been at the time of the climax. If history is followed in the present case, it would mean a large number of issues saw their lows for the year as of last month. – – – – — For the near term, then, caution should be the watchword. Experience indicates a strong likelihood of a downward move within the next two to six weeks which could bring thb Dow back to its former low and perhaps through that low by a fairly Significant amount. Such action would probably bring about widespread prophecies of gloom and doom. Experience indicates, however, that, Yver,e-new lows to hold below their 1969 peaks, it would probably constitute a major buying opportunity. Dow-Jones Ind. 837.25 Dow-Jones Rails 202.02 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter is J)ubhshed for YOU) convemellce Rnd InformatIOn and not an offer to sell or II. soliCitation to bu) finy seuntle. dIscussed. The lfl- fonnatlan was obtained from source! we believe to he rehable. but we do not guarantee Its accuracy Walston & Co., Inc. and its officers, dlretorB or employees may have nn ',ntereet In or I)UfChA.Se and sell the .beCuntlCS referred to herem.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 29, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 29, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - August 29, 1969
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Walston &Co. ————lnc———— Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 29, 1969 Sherlock Holmes buffs will no doubt recall from the story Silver Blaze Holmes' al- lusion to the curious incident of the dog in the nighttime. When Watson remonstrated that the dog did nothing in the nightttme, That, replied Holmes, was the curious incident. In the week ended August 1, 1969, 1102 issues on the New York Stock Exchange posted new 1969 lows. Other issues had posted such lows in the previous week or, in a few cases, in the weeks following. The names of these issues were duIy recorded in the fimmcial journal Considering the severity of the market decline of June-July, it is hardly surprising that a great many issues reached new low territory. The curious incident in this case is that, during the past two and one-half months, 211 NYSE common issues did not make new -1969 lows- This'is 'more 'thansimply'an'idle 'exerclse-Between'mid- May-and -the-end ,of;;-Jul-y- 1969, the Dow-Jones Industrials dropped almost 190 points, one of the steepest short-term declines on recent record. The ablity of an individual lssue to hold above its previously made low during this period is indicative of the sort of relative strength that cOuId put it among the leaders in the next upswing — especially if it continued to hold its low during any testing period that may occur in the next month or two, We have compiled below a listing of all those common issues on the NYSE which held above their previous lows during June, JuIy and August of this year. Included are a few stocks that made new lows by fractions and have since recovered substantially. We think it is a group of issues from which upcoming market leaders may well emerge. L' .Abbott Labs Campbell S Fed.Dept. S. Ky. Fried Ch. Papercraft Staley Mfg. AMP, Inc. Aguirre Co Carter Wal Ferro Corp Kresgej Caterpillar Fin. Feder. Kroger ron, Standard Brands 0 Std. Oil of Ohio Alberto CuI. Cent. So. W First Chart. LFC vtPe ,Allied Maint. Chesebrough First Nat. SLane Br. 1\ si . Sterling Drug Sunbeam Corp Amer. Enka Clark Equip Fla. E. C. Ry. Amer. Home P Clark Oil Food Fair -Amer.. Hosp. SCoca COla .Amer. Res. D Coca Cola B L t.. Amer. Steril. Comsat ssv()Amer. T&T e e St. MGIC Inv Ampex C Manpower P , Chas. lttston Co .'polaroici Proctor G. Pueblo S. M Purolator Quaker St. O. Surveyor Fund Texas Instrum. Texas Utilities Tishman Realty Todd Shipyards Trane Co Anchor Hock. Cont a raltar F Marlennan Read. Bates Transworld Fin. Armco Steel Corn.G a Gimbel Revco Tri-Continental C Armstrong C Crow ork Global M Maytag Revlon Uarco, Inc. Assoc. Dry G Culligan Grant,W.T. McDonald Rheingold Union Camp Atlantic Rich. Atlas Chern. Avery Prod Avon Prod Bard, Inc. Baxter Labs Beatrice F Beckman Inst Becton Dick Benguet Con Big 3 Ind Black Deck. Boise Cas Broad.Hale Bulova Watch Burndy Corp Burroughs Butler Shoe Calif. Finan Callahan Min Cunning. Dr Great W. Fin Mel. Shoe Cutler Ham Grolier Memorex Dart, Inc Dexter DiGiorgio Dictaphone Diebold Disney, W Dlst. Corp Dr. Pepper Dominick F East.Kodak Ebasco Ind. Harcourt B Merck Hewlett P. Midwest O. Holiday Inns Miles Lab Honeywell Minn. MM Host Intl Mobil Oil Hotel Corp Motorola Hughes & H. Narco S. Imperial C.' IBM Nat! Bis. IntI. Flav. F Natl Can IntI. Paper Natl Cash Eckerd Dr. IntI. T&T Natomas Elec. Mem. Japan Fund Norton S Emerson El. Jewel Cos. Outboard M Faberge Factor, M Fedders John. & John. PPG Ind Kauf. & Br. Pac. Light. Kellogg Pac. Pete Fed. Paper Kendall Co Pac. Tin Rich. Merr. Riegel Paper Robt. Cont. Robins, A. H. St. Regis P Schering Schaefer,FM Schlumberger Scott Paper Searle,.G. D. Sears Sher. Wms. Signode Skyline Smith Ind. S. Car. E&G Southern Co Sperry Hut. Squibb Beech. Unishops, Inc United Fin. U. S. Pipe & Fdry Valve Corp. Amer Varian Assoc. Walker, Hr. G. W. Walter, Jim Warner Lambert Webb, Del WescQ Fin… Western Union Whirlpool Wickes Corp Williams Bros. Woolworth Xerox Dow-Jones Ind. 836.72 Dow-Jones Rails 201. 18 . ' ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. – ' – II

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