Viewing Month: February 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 07, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 07, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - February 07, 1969
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Walston-&–C-o-. f II..-e., Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 7, 1969 One of the many old Wall Street saws is Never sell a dull market. Based on the activity in the last dozen or so sessions, the present market, if the adage is true, rates as on of the least likely candidates for sale in recent history. Dullness has, without a doubt, been the watchword. The Dow-Jones Industrial Aver age closed the session of January 23rd at 940.20. Friday's close was 947.85. In the inter- vening eleven sessions the total net change was plus or minus less than two points in nine of them. Even more symptomatic of the dullness have been the advance-decline statistics. Over the eleven sessions, the highest number of individual advances scored has been 686 an the lowest 617. Declining stocks nave-ranged -Volume– has remained reasonably high, but the evidence of any distinct price trend in either direct- ion has, to date, been negligible. Three weeks ago in this space, shortly after the January low was made, we suggest- ed that,while a short-term bottom had probably been reached, there was no way of knowing what shape the eventual base for the next advance might take. At that time we said A num- ber of questions….. remain unanswered. These center, by and large, on the eventual shape of the base for the next advance. One possibility would be a continued drift in the 920- 940 area, perhaps even involving modestly lower lows for the averages. Another possibility would be a move back to around the 950 level and extension of the base at that point. Un- fortunately, in the intervening period, the market has failed to accommodate us by supplying any conclusive answer to the dilemma. Short-term timinides had moved, as of last week, from their deeply oversold position into just slightl 0 and have,as of the moment, retreated from there to a neutral u are such as to sup- port a continued advance, but with no clearcut ch advance is in the cards In the major averages, very short-term price b d large, been reached. It should be made clear that what . question here is only the im- mediate trend — not the outlook r constructive. -Our currentmodel f t – – . te onger term. This we believe to be sumes that a major advance begMin– mid-1968 and that this of the longer-term uptrend which had started in October tll advance will continue to new high territory be- fore any serious in e u t e . The question at the moment, as it so often is, is what will take plac . .. As noted ab ,th ustrial Average has afforded us precious little in the way of a clue. Where, then, we seek a portent The answer may be provided by a glance at the action of the thre ow-Jones Averages since the advance began last August. Inspection shows that the Rails and Utilities have been showing rather different action than the more- widely-followed Industrials in recent weeks. All three came off major base areas from their August lows to highs in December, the Utilities waiting a bit longer (until October) to get off the ground and compressing most of their move into a short period in mid-November. The Rail and Industrial averages scored almost identical 150/0 advances with the Utilities lagging behind at 10')'.. All three averages declined by similar amounts (around 8) in January, and, at their lows, had returned to strong support levels. At these levels, both Industrials and Rails were about 6 above their August lows. Since the January lows, however, both Util- ities and Rails have strongly out-performed the Industrials. The Rails have advanced almos 90/0, and the Utilities a 4 rise in the Industrial Index. As a result, the Rails chalked up a newall-time high on Thursday and the Utilities were within an ace of making a three-year peak. The Industrials, by contrast, were still 40/0 under their Decembe level. It will be worthwhile, therefore, to watch the action of the Rails and Utilities closel Continued ability of the former to move ahead, coupled with new highs in the electric com- pany index, would be a constructive sign indicating that the Industrials might, in due course, follow along. Failure of these two indices to follow through might, conversely, indicate a weaker immediate market tone. Dow-Jones Ind. 947.85 Dow-Jones Rails 279.88 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter is published for your conY!'nlenee and informalion And 18 not an offer to sell or a solldtatlOn to buy any securitie9 lhacuued Th . formation was obtained trom sources We beheve to be I't!1iable, but we do not guarantee Its J.ccuracy, Walston & Co, Inc. and its offieers. In; employees may have an interest In or pUJ'chase and sell the securities referred to herein. ………, 0 WN.BOl —— —

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 14, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 14, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - February 14, 1969
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r Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER February 14, 1969 INGERSOLL-RAND ( 53 l.. Despite higher labor, material and depreclation costs, the machinery industry is expected to show continued improvement in 1969. Among the more important lssues in this industry category, Ingersoll-Rand stands out as being parhcularly attractive. One of the largest I-R is the leader in the field of air and gas compressors and related equipment, the demand for which still appears to be in a major Ion term uptrend. The product range is broad, encompassing engines, pumps, rock drills, electric and hand tools, paper and plashcs machinery and general mining equipment. The approved merger with Torrington-Gompany 'win-add ,-knitti-ng–a-nd-sew- ing machtne needles, dnll bits and nuts and bolts to the combined product line. While pro- saic in their nature, all of these items are necessary in our economic scheme, and are of particular importance to the construction, utility, mining and service industries. For several years, I-R's earnings have been on a plateau around the 3.80 a share level. 1969 is expected to witness a break away and up from this plateau with current pro- Jections calling for 4.25 a share, vs. an estimated 3.85 for 1968, including Torrington's contribution pro forma for calendar 1968. Further gains are seen for the years immediatel ahead, especially as the benefits from the Torrington merger are realized. Although the increase in outstanding shares will approXlmate 100/0, no reduction in the current 2.00 annual dividend will occur. In fact, the expected earnings lmprovement this year is likely to result in a dlVidend increase. The decade of the 1970's is expected to prove to I-R. Demand for its products should help management reach its goal dou 1 g earnings over the next five years. Selling for less than 13 times this en imate and providing an above-average industnal Yleld, the shares merit ideration. Technically, IR has formed a base ngth in the mid-40's that in- dicates a price objective at 88, near 100. There is good support at 48-44. IR is on the PnceApprec' owc oUr Recommended List-.– — – CENCO INSTRUMEN … nursing homes, hospitals and hospital supplies and equipme t fastest growing m'u 1 even think of Cenco. And yet, lt is one of the les in this health field. Its product line runs the gamut from production ana s ibu i f scientific and laboratory equipment to hospital beds and furniture,and includes te' disposable items for operating rooms. teaching aids and schoo accessories, water p lOn abatement equipment, gymnasium seating and locker room equlpment, graduation and church choir apparel and owning and managing hospitals and nursing homes. The company is maktng significant strides toward reaching its goal of owning or leasing more than 24 hospitals and nursing homes by 1971. Last July lt purchased two Los Angeles hospitals and announced plans to build two additional facilities in California. It recently purchased a 320-bed facility in Orlando, Florida. Its own subsidiaries will supply the furnishings and much of the required equipment. Earnings for Cenco have increased every year since 1953, an envlable record in the glamor-stock field. For the fiscal year ending April 30, 1969, net is estimated to reach 1. 95 a share, compared with 1. 76 for fiscal 1968. Some analysts are projecting a dou- bling in earnings by 1973. The dividend, now at 30 annually, is expected to parallel this anticipated rise in income. Technically, the Cenco chart reveals an area of extensive backing and filling in the 55-45 area that has created a base suggesting a price objective in the mid-80's. With good support at 58-54, CNC also is recommended as a purchase for Price Appreciation. Dow-Jones Ind. 951. 95 Dow-Jones Rails 275. 72 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb Thhl market letter 18 published for )our convenience and mformntlon nnd IS not an offel to sell or a soliCItation to buy Il.n) securities UISCUSSed, The in- fonnatlon was obtalned,from sources we to be rehable. but we do not sroaralltee Lts accurnc). Walston &. Co.. Inc. and Its officers, dLrector. or employees may have an mterest In or purchase and sell the securities ref('rred to heLem WN.801

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - February 20, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Membe New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stork and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER February 20, 1969 See what ttrnigs- ve S, … …. Marcu s Aurelius .. Desplte the weakness of the last week, it lS difficult to become bearish. Telling lt the way it really is, the charts suggest that the process of base-building is contmuing. The re cent decline has extended the depth of this base area, but has in no way altered the prevailing indications of higher markets to come. The base building could take a number of forms, the worst of which likely would be a pullback mto the 880-890 Dow-Jones area. The market will attempt to hold in the 910-920 reglOn, from which it started ltS last advance. A failure to hoI there would suggest the testing of the 890 level. In any event and until indications are change substantially, we cannot v,ew-th,s wea-kness-as the'start-of-any-major-decline, and-would rather remain wlth the optimists awalbng the anticipated upturn and taking advantage of what appears to be bargain pncing. When that upturn does come, the action is expected to be in the dividend-paymg, quality stock category. One of these time-tested issues that seems to offer the investor a favorable buying opportumty at present is General Cigar. GENERAL CIGAR COMPANY. INC. Current Price -29 1/8 Second largest of the domestic cigar producers, Current Dividend 1. 20 General Cigar appears to be at a Juncture where it of- Current Yield 4. 1 fers investors an attractive combination of capltal ap- Long-Term Debt 36,722,000 Common Stock 1,531,431 shs. Sales-1968-Est. 240,000,000 Sales-1967 220,590,000 Earn. Per Sh. 1968-E 2.20 Earn. Per Sh. 1967 1. 97 preciation and sat isfactory current income. Helped by a series of advantageous acquisitions made in recent years, sales and s and prospects for a n been in a strong uptren th,S into the fore- seeable Latest ava o. st st' suggest that cigar sales are on the ups' for first bme since 1964 when Mkt. Range 1969–6734 3/8 – 18 the widely publicized report on If the se . General Cigar would be than most of lts compebtors. The company is rt' I 1 ro iK the cigar field, especially in the tip-clgar categor e r' brand is an lmportant factor. Should a gentleman of- fer a lady a TipariI ore and more women are smoking tip-cigars and if, as is expected, the cigar s ki munity does expand, tip cigars are expected to widen their popularity. In addition, company has been upgrading its productive capacity and efficierJ,cy to the point at which . inite lmprovement in profit margm; would coincide with sales in- creases. We suggest that this lmproved operating performance has already started and should be apparent in future quarterly earnings reports. Since the ten-year earmngs low point was posted m 1966,General Cigar's market per- formance has reflected the rather impressive rebound that has taken place in overall net income. On no more than an average mcrease in sales volume in 1967 over 1966 results, earn- ings advanced approxlm,tely 28, rising from 1. 54 in 1966 to 1. 97 a share in 1967. For the 1968 year recently ended, this uptrend continued with earmngs estimated at a new-all-time hlgh near 2.20 a share. Looking ahead through the balance of the current year, per share re sults have been projected by mdustry ana.lysts to around the 2.40 level. In the meantime, management has been active in the acqUlsition field. The recent earn ings improvement reflects these additions to the corporate network and further acquisitions, perhaps outside the cigar field, could compound future growth. Dlvidends have been paid in each year since 1909. Prospects a.re favorable for an increase in the long- standing current 1. 20 a share annual rate, especially as earnings maintain their present uptrend. Technically, General Cigar has formed an extended base in the 28-34 area that indi- cates a price objective near 55. There is a higher goal readable at 72, Good support is found to exist at 26. Recently added to the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List, General Cigar again is suggested for investment purchase at prevailing market prices. Dow-Jones Ind. 916.65 Dow-Jones Rails 263. 55 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W, T ABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb This market letter is published for )our ronvemence Rnd mformatlOn find IS nnt lin offer to sell or It solicitatIOn to huy any sel'Untles ulscussed. The JH- formation was obtamed from we hehlNe to he rl'ilRhlc. but. we do not guarantee Jts nccurnc) Walston & Co., Inc, nod Its officers, directors or employees may have an murest In or IJUTchasl.' and sen the sl'Cuntw'l ref..rred to hel('ll' WNSOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 28, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 28, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - February 28, 1969
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– W—a-lIsntocn.-&—C-o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVER.SEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 28, 1969 Rapid change is a permanent attribute of the stock market, and events of the past two weeks provided still another example. Just three weeks ago this letter found it necessary to comment on the dullness which had characterized trading for most of 1969. That dullness rapidly disappeared in a blazing display of fireworks. On February 17th, the market com- menced a six-day declinewhichin-rlerms of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, erased better than 60 points inthe'shortSpaC'e'of six trading days. What was, at least, a temporary bottom, appeared to have been reached last Wednesday when a four-point recovery occurred. At the week's lows, the Industrials were well below their previous lowest level for the year, while the Rails and Utilities had retraced-all of or abit-morethan the'advance-from-ctheir respective January bottoms. The central question, as it is following any short-term decline, revolves around the extent to which the longer-term market pattern has been altered by the weakness. As read- ers of this letter are well aware, we have adhered for over two years now to a basiC fore- cast model for the stock market. This model states, in sunmary, that a long-term uptrend began in October 1966 and that, despite interruptions, it has remained in effect ever since that time. This model enabled us to remain relatively optimistic throughout late 1967 and early 1968 and, in the context of this forecast, the 1968 advance to a high in early December was hardly surprising. Obviously, our task at the moment is to fit the recent decline into the context of this model and, if this cannot be done, to revise the forecast. Looked at in percentage terms, there is absolutely nothing unusual about the market downswing which began in early December and continued, last Tuesday. Based on the Dow-Jones close, it constituted an 8.670/0 dr 0 of 53 trading day Declines of this magnitude have repeatedly punctuatar '0 sups' s, admittedly, in most cases, somewhere around the latter stages of ups i As an example, the mar ket advance from 1953 through 1957 saw no an d nes of a magnitude and dura- tion to t!tis one. The -1 s simila declines between 1959 and 1960. va was punctuated by a 'similar drop in May-June 1965, and the pres t a was interrupted by declines in the Fall of 1967 and in early 1968. weakness shapes up as nothing more than a common, gard – rection. The preci' u e e six-day drop ended last Tuesday, however, is some thing else again. Tn only five steeper six-day declines in the past thirteen years and of those, fo w characteristic of major bear market bottoms — three oc- curring around the 19 wand one at the 1966 nadir. It is necessary to go all the way back to 1956 to find a decline as vicious as the last one ending an intermediate-term downtrend. In other words, the sharpness of the decline in a short period strongly suggests selling of a climactic nature. This is a bit surprising when it is remembered that volume on the drop increased hardly at all. Despite the apparent cross-currents, however, we have no difficulty in fitting market events so far into our basic model for the stock market. The present phase of the advance began with a move out of a broad trading range between, roughly, 817 and 935, which had contained the Dow throughout most of 1968. The present downswing, after all, constitutes nothing more than a return to the upper part of that level. Furthermore, the type of stocks that were more severely hit by the decline are consistent with the pattern. It was the obviou areas of speculative excess which received the greatest shelling, most notably the conglo- merates with ricky-ticky capitalizations. We may well be witnessing the first stages of a demise of the entrepreneurs who thought they could put together investment magic through the issuance of brightly colored pieces of paper. Meanwhile, the less exploited, higher quality issues have proved relatively resistent to the drop. This weakness in areas of blatant speculation, coupled with a search for sounde values, is perfectly consistent with the market stage we are assuming. In summary, there- fore, we see little reason to reduce our basic thinking about the investment outlook. Cli- mactic declines are tricky things and we would not want to write off the possibility of further downside fireworks. Nonetheless, we are inclined to view the present level as a buying op- portunity. Dow-Jones Ind. 905.21 ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails 253.68 WALSTON & CO. INC. This mlLrket letter Is published for yOUr convenience and InformAtIOn and Is not an offer to Bell or a sollcltatlon to buy any seeurltles lhscussed. The in A lormatlon was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. but we do not guarantee Ita accuracy. Walston & Co., Inc. and Its offlct'rs. dlrecto have an interest in or pUFchase and sell the securities referred to herein.

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