Viewing Month: September 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 05, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 05, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - September 05, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc –……;;….;;… Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 5, 1969 Stock market analysis will, we suspect, always remain as much an art as a science, and it is only this fact which prevents the analyst from striking a highly definite and highly positive note about today's stock market. Were market forecasting to be totally sCientific, there would be room for only one possible interpretation of the market action of the past month, for it has conformed with almost uncanny accuracy to a tried and true model — the bear market bottom, post-World War-II style. This scenario has repeated itself some four times now in the past quarter century and its pattern is, or should be, familiar. Bnefly, the sequence runs something like this – — — (1)-The'marketdeclines'sharp1y,-persIstently-and .over,a.protractedper.iodof.time,. with momentum building up toward the end, the final decline reaching a figure in the n'eighbo — hood of 200/0 in the popular averages. This occurred, as we all know, in 1957, 1962, 1966 and again in 1969. (2) A bottom takes place which is characterized by the large majority of issues post ing new lows, followed by a few days of sharp, dynamic reversal. This occurred on and following October 22, 1957, May 28, 1962 and August 29, 1966. It occurred again on July 29, 1969. '! (3) This initial bounce is followed by a period of relative firmness on fairly low. volume. This period lasted for four weeks in 1957, three weeks in 1966, and only a week in 1962. Through the high of September 2nd, such a period has lasted for a bit more than three weeks in the present instance. (4) The next phase has, invariably, been a a couple of week's duration. The weakness on the last thr ainto this pattern. Generally, the decline carrles to of no more than d thqs week certainly fits s ig t rough the previous low — although a great many stocks do not move to ows. (5) The next phase generally is a ha 11 covering most of the ground lost on the previous slide. – (6f This; 'in turn; neighborhood of two to three (7) By this time a bas s p of relative firmness . W !yo the takeoff rally of a new bull market begins Were the e time in Decembe , . I e st likely time sequence, this would occur some0 nClde with the usual year-end rally. As we sald, t r s ance of the current market to the model above is almost eerie. Since, however, rket forecasting is an art as well as a science we find ourselves looking for ways in w ch the market might surprise us by deviatmg from the expected model. One way, of course would be for the market slide to continue to much lower levels. It is, of course, possible and there are, indeed, a great many pessimistic forecasters abou assuring us that precisely this will be the case. We think, however, a number of factors argue against this sort of a surprise, among them the relatively low level of the market, or, at least, the quality portion of the list, based upon proven earning power, and, perhaps as importantly, the technical patterns of individual stocks. If the market were truly to pull a surprise at this stage, it would have to be in the opposite direction. In other words, at some point it would have to begin slowly rising, and instead of simply remaining firm and level, keep on going up. A case can be made for this sort of surprise precisely on the grounds that nobody that we areaware of, including, be honest, ourselves, really thinks that it is going to take place, and, when the market chooses to behave in a contrary fashion, lt generally does that which is least accommodating to the greatest number of people. We must confess,however, that we do not, at the moment, see the base patterns conducive to any sort of protracted and immediate market rise. We have to return, therefore, to our forecast model above under which prices are likely to be lower next week, about the same next month, and higher next year. While al- ways on the alert for surprises, we think it prudent to work on the a ssumption that the market in 1969 will conform to its tested behavior pattern. Dow-Jones Ind. 819.50 Dow-Jones Rails 197.88 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT'amb ThIS market, iettcr IS Jlllhh1h''(j fm C'on\'cn1l1rl' ;lllf/ mrllm.lt!on .\lU( 1; not lUI offer to sel! or ,orm,ntlon \\I\s ohtmnt',1 from \\(' \)(11'\; to he 1(Ii.lhk hut we rio not Its n('cUrlH') mny have an mtel eat III or I'U! ,..ha,oJ .Uld bdl '.' Ullt!. lef!'! rc,1 to helclIl tQ hu &. Co, Jnt' '';'Ullt., Th !l1I0i Its offict'l'l dlrc(t e Ln. ' orH u WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 12, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 12, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - September 12, 1969
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– Wdlston &- Co. —–Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Pr;nc;pal Stock and Commod;ty Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 12, 1969 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average made its fourth assault at the 840 level this week and, for the fourth time, was set back. After making an intra-day low of 804.45 on Tuesday a sharp rally set in at mid-day followed by the 12-point Wednesday advance. After an llltraday high of 838. 50 on Thursday, however, the market again turned down, followed by further weakness on Friday in response to resumption of B-52 raids in Vietnam. All of these short-term swings are, of course, conslstent wlth our theory that the market is undergoing a process of base formation which wlll continue for some time. During such a period a great many attractive stocks become available for purchase on weakness. A few of the- issues on buying on market dips;earenevtewedbelow. CLARK EQUIPMENT (31) turned in an excellent earnings performance in the first half of 1969 with six months net reaching 1. 53 a share vs. 1. 00 in the comparable 1968 period. For the year w' would expect earnings to rise to 3.00 vs. 2.45, and, although reduced capital goods spending next year may prove a mild depressant, we would expect further lmproved results in 1970. The stock is currently available at an historically low multiple of ten times estimated 1969 earnings and has sold at 14 to 17 times current earnings at some time during every year in the past decade. The stock has a long-term obJective of 61,and there is strong support in the 30-28 area. DART INDUSTRIES, INC. (46), formerly Rexall Drug & Chemical, presents an in- teresting growth picture. The most exciting aspects of al(Y the direct selling an consumer products groups, including Tupperware plastic 0 osmetics marketed door-to-door as well as West Bend products and i gs. ese groups account for only 33 of sales, but 66 of profits. These t ass container group, will become more important as agreement in ached to sell Dart's ethical drug division to Minnesota Mining. has fallen through;-but there-is-no-'re 0 0 t, fr ise and retail drug operations l that'thts-op-e-ration win be-dtspo-sed- – of at some time in the future. at 2. 25-2, 35 vs. 1. 91, and we would be a buyer of t e sto 0 FIRST CH T F y mo llltO the low 40' s. 7) is the outstanding technical performer in an out- ! standing group, the 'ngs & Loan issues. The stock has maintained a consistent uptrend all through th rket debacle, and continues to have a long-term objective of BO. It is the largest of &L holding companies, and owns the second largest association in the country. Earm gs growth based on the strong underlying demand trend for homes in Califorma is expect ed to continue, and yields on new mortgages should remain high. Savings flow, of course, remains a questionmark, but FCF is not dependent on out-of-State funds, having developed a strong local base. For 1969, earnings are expected to reach a record 2. BO-2. 90 level vs. a depressed 1. 81 la-st year. We would be a buyer of the stock on dips to the low 40' s. PARKE-DAVIS (32) has, for a long time, been included in our Recommended List and during most of the period its market performc,nce has been somewhat less than stellar. However, it has come into its own in the bear market of 1969, proving, by-and-Iarge, resistant to the sharp drop in stock prices. During this process a substantial base has been formed indicating that it 'may 'soon reward- the patience'of its holders. 'Recent earnings declines in Parke-Davis have been due, of course, to the decline in profitability of nO-Iongerpatent-protected Chloromycetin, and from a peak of 2, 20 in 1965,earnings dropped to a nadir of 1. 25 in 196B. 1969 results are expected to begin a recovery and could well approach 1. 40-1. 45 area. Accompanying this could be a return to the growth multiples which were characteristic of the stock before the Chloromycetin difficulties began. We would be a buyer in investment accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. B24.25 Dow-Jones Rails 19B.45 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ThiS mnrl.et, letter IS Jlubhshcd for )OUr o.!onvenH'nr(' and mformatlOn m,\ Ito not ;\11 olTeJ tn sell 01 ..I. SOlll'll,ltlO1l W 1IU\ ,In) !,,,Ulltll!'!. rhscusscd The In. formation '1\; obtnJncl from SOUt.(' ,\(' belwv(' to be r('hnbll' Lut \\( do not In!.lrantet' Its finUr,!,), \\nbton IV Co, Int. Jlml lh nffic('r'/, rhrt.'Ciors 01 employccs may hnvc an mtel cet lfi 01 !lUI lind '1ell thc I CrCI L'(l tu WN.SOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 19, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 19, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - September 19, 1969
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W—-a–l-s-tInocn—&–C–o–. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Slock and Commodity Exchanges I OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 19, 1969 The technical dilemma now facing the stock market should be quite clear by now to almost all investors. It is symbolized perfectly by the most-widely-looked-at single stock market chart — the one that appears on the next-to-the-last page of the Wall Street Journal, covering the three Dow-Jones Averages. As the chart quite clearly shows, since the low of July 29th, the Dow Industrials have held in a sideways trading range contained by, roughly, 800 on the downside and 840 on the upside. Three separate tests of the downside portion of this range occurred, and four separate tests of the upper part, including last week when the Dow spent most of its time bouncing against this temporarily impermeable Thechart oi.Jhe Dow-Jones Rails looks very much like the Industrials. – – ——- Whichever way this trading range is penetrated, the chart is going to look awfully good or awfully bad to the untutored eye, and we believe this is significant enough to indicat a rather quick move in either direction. The upside target for the Dow would be 875, and the downside target somewhere in the 785-775 ra.nge. While the direction of the immediate penetration is still in doubt, there is very little doubt that the trading range constitutes part of an ultimate base formation. The only question that remains is the ultima.te shape of the base. Here we are willing to let the mar- ket tell its own story. In such an environment, however, it is incumbent upon the investor to build up a fully invested position in those stocks which can be potential leaders on the upside. To as- sist in this task we are making, herewith, a number of ur Recommended List. We are removing from the list a number of issues whose e h i aRern has been damage by the 1969 decline, or where we think the issues being removed are as follows' t 1 is Po average. Those Quality & Long-Term Growth Amerada – – — — -Prlce Appreciation Air (39);- ved in exchange for Amerada 1/ d e . (27), Goodyear (28 5/8), Kraftco – s -( /2);-Winn–Bixie-(-3-3-7/8-). .., i..RMCluction (18), American Bakeries (13 1/4), (193/8), Great Northern Paper (54), '——r- , We are ii .' additions to the list, but are suggesting buy pomts for 24 issues which wil tom ally added to the list if those buy points are reached. This strategy is in line wit th ssibility that a further extension of the trading range may brin these lssues down to e attractive buying levels. Should an upside breakout take place, of course, we will revise this strategy and suggest immediate purchase of a number of issues. We will duly notify our readers of such a change in this letter. Quality & Long-Term Growth Stock Buy Level Stock Buy Lev Int'l Bus. Mach. 340 Squibb Beech-Nut 55 Merck 95 Sears Roebuck 66 Nat'l Cash Reg. 140 Union Carbide 41 Procter & Gamble 95 Price Appreciation Stock Buy Level Stock Buy Leve Alberto Culver 45 Culligan, Inc. 22 Atlas Chemical 27 Faberge, Inc. 32 Amer. Hosp.Supply 38 Grolier, Inc. 32 AMP, Inc. 47 Hewlett-Packard 90 Big 3 Ind. Gas 44 Carter Wallace 27 Speculative Price Appreciation Stock Buy Level Capitol Ind. 41 Dixilyn Corp. 28 i I Great West. Fm. 25 Pittston Times Mirror Stock. Memorex Tishman Realty 65 44 BUy Level 92 30 Those issues which are ultimatel y added to the Itst will be reviewed in subsequent issues of this letter. Dow-Jones Ind. 830.39 Dow-Jones Rails 200. 35 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIS mnl'hM httl!l' 15 Iubhsh(d fot )Oll/ nn(1 lllfollnnllon and ,'- not an aIT'-'J formatIon was obtamed from we 1…1Ll'v' to he lell!!h1. hut We do not emptoyees may have an Interest Ln or pureha;e Rutl !.ell the '\',UlltW' Ifrclred to herein to sell 01 a '1011t'llRtlOn to bu) ,tn seCUrities dISCussed Its .I'cur.I(\ W.llton &. Co Inc Rnrl Its officel'; 'I'he In. OJ WN.aot

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - September 26, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OYER lOD OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS l,ABEll'S MI ARKEl lETTER September 26, 1969 il PITTSTON COMPANY (65)…… Can you remember the last time you saw a load of coal being delivered Very few households today use this fuel for heatmg purposes and most people would think the coal business is a dying business. Quite the contrary' Especially for Pittston Company, one of the largest distributors of coal and a diversif1ed holding company in its own right. In fact, earnings have been in an impressive uptrend for almost ten years, rising from 1.64 a share m 1959 to 3.38 last year and an estimated 3.60 to 3.70 for 1969. Despite the favorable trendto.date, the.outlook e impressive. While volume should benefit from increased capacity in coal operationS, favorable trend in oil distribution facilities and a good level of steel operations on the part of steel companies, the main point of attraction is the fact that escalation clauses in certain of the company's coal contracts are combining with increased sales of more ex- pensive grades of coal to indicate an impressive Jump in earnings potential for 1970. Current esti;nates of earnings for next year now approximate the 5.25 to 6.00 a share range, a gain that 1S larger than the total gams of the last seven years. ' Pittston also is an important factor in the trucking industry through its U. S. Truck- ing and Brink's, Inc., subsidiaries. Brink's furnishes armored car services in 132 cities as well as overseas. The company also operates 31 terminals in addition to barges and tankers. Nine of these terminals have facilities for could become important in connection with Alaskan oil. W tankers, which 0 Technically, Pittston has formed a broad and one-half that suggests a price objective with a higher goal readable at 90. There limiting downside risk. Now being to e –mended.!ist,-PittstonGompany.sha'l'- 54 over the last year 10 mid-seventies, and CO in the 62-58 area, ice preciation section of our recom- d e d – f o r – p u r c h a – s e – a t – t h e – m a – r k e t – – .- – – 1 ' 1 UNION CARBIDE ride that has characterized common shares of the Union for the past decade appears to be nearing an end as prospects for mcreasingly favorable. Earnings this year are ex- pected to reverse til ntr that started in 1966, thanks to recent pr1ce increases on low-density polyethyle e several other chemical and plastics items. It is in the can mer area that UK has been showing much of its recent zip. Disposable plasttc Glad bags and wrap are doing especially well, while consumer response to the Eveready line of batteries, particularly the new longer-life types, remains quite strong. The cold weather season is coming on rapidly in'some parts of the country and the well-established line of Prestone antifreeze is expected record a new sales peak this winter. On top of all this, operations at the huge new petrochemical complex in Louisiana, have improved to the point that margins actually have been helped. All this contributes to the more favorable outlook now being held for Union Carbide. It also is being reflected in actual earnings. Compared with 2.60 a share last year, results for 1969 are being estimated at close to 2.90 a share, with a jump to well above the 3.,00 level anticipated for 1970. No incr,ease in the current 2. 00 -annual dividend. is likely during the coming twelve months. Technically, Union Carbide has been building a base for two years that indicates unusually strong support in the 42-40 area. This same base also enables a price objective to be indicated, initially in the 52 area, followed by a higher reading at 65-70. Now being recommended for purchase, Union Carbide is added to the Quality & Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List. I ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER Dow-Jones Ind. 824. 18 Dow-Jones Rails 199. 54 WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb This market letter is pubhshed for your convenience and IDformatlon and IS not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy Bny seeUtltles diSCUSsed The in- formation was obtained from sources we believe to be rehable, but we do not lrUarantee Its Walston & Co. Inc and its officers. dn'ectors or employees may have an Interest In or J)UFchfUle and sell the Si!CuntllB referred to healn WNBOl 'ill , ,J ,

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