Viewing Year: 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 16, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 16, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - May 16, 1969
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Walston &Co, Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER. 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 16, 1969 The stock market extended its gains last week, although in somewhat desultory fashio and with considerably less ebullience than had been displayed in the dramatic advance a fortnight before. After early weakness, 5-point advances were chalked up on both Tuesday and Wednesday and, although the lack of any dramatic proposals in Mr. Nixon's speech caused a mild selloff on Thursday, a portion of this loss was recovered in Friday's trading. The week's high, reached on May 14th, was 974.92 in the Dow. Much has been written in the financial press about the surprising nature of the stock market advance in late April and early May. Actually, there is very little very surprising about the advance. In fact, it would have been much more surprising had the market not gon – -up than'had it behaved-just exadlY-a-s-inHd-. – Let us see if we cannot document this thesis a bit. The central fact of today's stock market is the fact that it has been in an uptrend ever since October, 1966. In an uptrend as long as this one the trend channels are quite clearly defined, and at this stage of the game it is possible to define the uptrend on the Dow with a good deal of precision. At the present time, that channel is rising at the rate of a bit more than a point a week and its center is around 955. The upper level of the channel is at 1018 and the lower level at 893. Viewed in this context, the rise is hardly surprising. At the February low of 899, the Dow had returned to the very bottom of the trading channel which had contained it for more than two years. It is a basic tenet of technical work that such a channel is more likely to hold than to be broken. In this light, the advance was hardly surprising and, indeed, in view of the limit of the channel mentioned above, a further extension of ed improbable, hardly be consider 0 So much for the comforting truism that we arfa'l i et. Assuming it is true, the inevitable corollary follows. It is, at this ,r n old bull market. It has been going up for some 2 1/2 years now — 626 in s to be precise. This length of time does not constitute senility for a any means. For comparative purposes, the previous major 962a.nd endeci..inl!!fi6 carried,for 911 trading days, –alliitileonei-efSj– in 1957, managed to last for some- thing over 1000 days prior to 1 ' . NW\ lhelss, if our bull is not senile, he is, at least n ee It is true of s ust as it is of mankind, that the fullest fruits of vigor are found in the full 0 Thus, as we look back on the market history of the past few years, we find tha 19 as a rather easy year in which to make a good deal of money in stocks, and that 196 hile presenting a few more difficulties, still was conducive to rather good investment results. One would suspect that any portfolio manager, viewing 1969 to date, would hardly characterize the climate as being as conducive to huge capital gains. Despite our admittedly optimistic stance, we do not think that the investment task for the remainder of 1969 will become any easier. What we are seeing at the moment is nothing more than the normal phenomenon which takes place in the advanced stages of any upswing. At its latter stages, any upswing tends to be supported by fewer and fewer stocks. Such is the case at the moment. Most indices of market breadth suffered severe damage in the December-January decline. Since the Februa bottom, breadth, while on the plus side, has been unimpressive, considered by the standards of 1967 and 1968. Again, this is a tendency we would expect to see continued. One other characteristic of middle-aged bull markets is worthy of note. That is the- damage to speculative confidence and the improved relative performance of high quality stcks, a natural concomitant of investors seeking downside protection as well as capital gains. It is the recognition of this phenomenon that has led this letter to advocate — ad nauseam, we suspect — the upgrading of holdings and the restricting of investment to better-grade issues which appear historically low based on earning power. Fortunately, as our Recommended List will attest, there is no dearth of such issues available. We do not think that the party is over by any means. We are, however, inclined to believe it may be considerably less raucous. Dow-Jones Ind. 967.30 Dow-Jones Rails 241.41 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ThiS mnrk(!t Jettel IS Iluhh.hed (or OU! rOIlH'I\I'IIC'C lind Inform,lllOn and IS not an offer to s('l1 01 fl 'OhCLlatlOlI t) buv !til) I!cuntles formntlOlI was obtained from 'fUlCe-; we whev. 10 he Ihable, hut \\e ,10 lIot g\11rnnttl,' Its nceurnLV ,,,'alston 8. Co. lllc nnd It offi.e(,ls, employee'! mllY hnve nn mt.'leBt In 01 pUlchnsc lind tC1I the rtC'llctilo hClcln The In. 01 WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 20, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 20, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - May 20, 1969
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Walston &- Co, Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS F,Le lABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST May 20, 1969 This edition of our Recommended List gives long-term technical upside objectives, plus indicated support levels or shorter-term downside objectives. In all cases, we believe the stock would be attractive for purchase at the levels given in the support column. QUALITY & LONG-TERM GROWTH Close Qual- Upside Sup- 5/19/69 ity Obj. port Close Qual5/19/69 ity Alum-. Co.Ame-r. 79 3H- B–125190- 7J68-Jolin-s'Man-39'5'jR–'-'-A – Amerada 1183/4 Amer. T & T. 56 7/8 Borden Co. 31 5/8 Boston Edison 40 Caterpillar Tr. 54 1/4 A A A A A 132 -155 112 -108 67-75 52 43-60 28 54-62 37 64-80 43 Kraftco 47 Nevada Pro 46 3/8 Parke Davis 33 1/4 Phillips Pete 72 5/8 Radio Corp.46 1/2 A B B A A- Del Monte Feder.Dept. St. Goodyear Tire Intern'l Paper 29 1/2 37 1/4 32 1/4 45 1/2 A A A A- 50-70 50-62 40 51 28 30 27 39-36 Reynolds Tob. 39 1/2 Royal Dutch 54 5/8 U. S. Gypsum 85 1/2 Winn Dixle 343/8 A A AA Jewel Compo 52 7/8 A Addresso. Multi 77 1/2 A 68 43 90-112 74-68 Superior Oil2271/4 A- PRICE APPRECIATION Upside Obj. 60 ,56 62 44-60 78-86 50-82 54-74 62 102 45-64 255 Support -34 39 38 26 68 42-38 38-34 46 76 32-28 210 Close Qual- Upside Sup- 5/19/69 ity Obj. port Close Qual- Upside Sup- 5/19/69 ity Obj. port Air Products 43 1/2 A- 50-61 41-36 Ingersoll R. 46 3/4 A- 78-100 43 Air Reduction 28 – Arrier.Bakeries-23-17 2 A- 44 24 Koppers Co 45 B 60-66 Be\– –32 40 Amer. Distil. 28 1/2 Amer. Mach. F. 24 Arvin Ind. 32 3/8 Cenco lnstrum. 60 CiJ.ic. Mus. Inst. 26 3/8 Copperweld St. 23 5/8 Dan River Mills 21 7/8 Dart Ind. 49 3/4 Dresser Ind. 35 5/8 First Chart. F. 43 5/8 General Cigar 26 B 47-56 36 Medusa P.C. 53 5/8 A- 58 30 B 37 22-19 Mesabi Tr. 10 3/8 22 10-8 B 50 26 Olin Math. 31 1/4 B 43-50 28 B 72 52 Republic St. 45 1/2 B 62-90 38 B 38 25-22 Reynolds Met. 41 3/4 B- 71 36-34 B 42-58 20 nobt Control. 38 B 104 54 f B 38-46 20 Seaboard C.L. 45 B 55 42 A- 52-78 46-42 Stokely V. C. 28 7/8 B 35-44 26 B 48-57 32 Suburban P.G.39 1/2 A- 52-66 34 60-80 38-34 Union Camp 67 3/4 B 74-92 54 A- 53-72 26-23 Vornado 25 1/2 30-40 20 Gt. North Paper 69 3/4 B 75-108 58 Clark Equip. 39 A- 43-61 35-32 SPECULATlVE PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual5/19/69 ity Allied Supermkts. 15 3/4 B Amer.Motors 11 B Auto.Data Proc. 82 3/4 Camp. Chic. 9 3/8 Comp.Scieflces 68 3/4 Gibraltar Fin. 37 1/4 Upside SupObj. port 2632 – 14 24-32 10-8 90 74-68 20-26 7 80-85 58 58 30-28 Close 5/19/69 Kysor Ind. -36 3/4 Macke Co. 19 7/8 Mesa Pete. 41 3/8 Pacific Pete. 35 5/8 Penn-Central 56 3/4 Technicolor 23 5/8 Quality B B B B Upside SupObj. port 52 36 25-47 17 60-73 42 51 32 62-104 48 30-50 18 Anthony W. Tabell Walston & CG. Inc. ThiS Hulletln IS TluiJh'lhu\ fOI )OUI (onVI.'TlfH ( .llIeI ,nI, Illlmn ,Ind ',0 not .In oIT. t tn …. ltS from '10UI(''., WL 1luVl' tn \ It-I,!,h, hut v.t' dn not It-. .'Ut,\.\ hnve fl. Intel cst I ur l,ur.. ,Inti It lht, wtUlllIt I'relltd tn h'I''11l 01 ,\ '''\n ,t Itll1 to 1U\ ,\11) l. IIIIIl.s ,IlSI The lnflllm.llion \V.t1.,tnn J,. (; 111(' BlOt,\ .. f1WI'IS dlll','I,,, ' ('mplmt''S mnl WN-916

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - May 23, 1969
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Wdlston &Co. —-.,;;..; Inc -..;;……;;….;;;.; Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS -IL &' TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 23, 1969 Tobacco, ctivine, rare, superexcellent tobacco, which goes far beyond all the panaceas, potable gold and philosopher's stones, a sovereign remedy…. .. Anatomy of Melancholy REYNOLDS (R. J.) TOBACCO COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt 38 3/8 2. 20 5.7 34,000, 000 Controversy always has been the forge at which the metal of stocks as well as that of in- vestors in general has been tested. It is hkely to remain so in future, as the more things chang …. 3.60 Cum. Pfd Stk; 200,000 sh;'- dustry has been clothed in controversy for sev– — – Common 40,235,552 shs. eral years now as anti-smok;mg campaigns wax Sales-1969-E Sales-1968 2. 1 billion 1. 9 billion Earn. Per Sh. 1969-E 4.15 Earn. Per Sh. 1968 3.71 and wane almost in time with the change in sea/ sons. Except for one brief period in 1964, the effect of all this notoriety seems to have had very little effect on earning power, for in the cases of the industry's leaders, per share earn- Mkt. Range 1969-1968 505/8-37 ings have been in a strong uptrend. Once again the shadows of concerned dis- cussion have entered the tobacco picture. Now it is the fear that the Federal Trade Com mission will require even stronger warnings to be used in all Cigarette advertising regarrl- ing health hazards. This fear already has caused the equities in the in- dustry to decline rather sharply in recent months. The de -n \ vicious in several instances, resulting in the almost sudden h t eery e investor continually seeks a genuine bargain. The shares of REYNOLD AC prevailing market levels are believed to constitute such a bargain. Reynolds is the largest of the cmgar;e a act weathervane for-'tne \i'iaustry, renec I -g – – v – s and as such has acted as the or not. From an early h5 the point where today it 's sell' . h on been ravaged by selling pressures to level near 38. This decline of approxi mately 250/0 from its I' i r ' s een without its compensating factors. Based on earnings projecti 4. s e, or better for the current year, RJR sells at an at- tractive price-to-ea n s I' of less than nine to one, well below its 12-to-1 average ratio of the last fifteen y s. The current 5.7 return afforded by the seC'lre 2.20 annua dIvidend, a definite aidate for liberalization, is well above the 4.60/0 return that is the average for the 1953-1967 period. The fear of more stringent health warnings being forced upon the industry by the FTC has created worries about the future of tobacco advertising on TV. It is quite possible that TV advertising will be sharply curtailed…. resulting in enormous cash savings to the cigarette companies. Certainly much of the funds will be directed mto other areas of ad- vertising, but, as in the case of Reynolds which in 1968 expended almost 80 million on TV advertising, the curtailing or cessation of TV advertising (perhaps a blessing in disguise to millions of TV viewers) would have an impressively favorable effect on earnings. RJR spen roughly 2.00 a share on advertiSing in 1968. As one leading financial service stated, The -noimplications for RJR's earnings picture, if most of this moneyeould be retained, is almost staggering. Time alone ';ili tell, but there is doubting that-the prevailing fe-aI'S have about worked their wor st on the stock's price. In addition to the plusses afforded by rising earnings, continued diversification into non-tobacco lines (aluminum, packaging, Chinese foods, grocery products, vinyl films) suggests a steadily.lessening dependence on tobacco, although this end of the business will con tinue to be the all-important factor. The recently approved merger with McLean Industries, the largest containerized freight service system in the world, is expected to bear favorably on longer-term earnings prospects. Techmcally, RJR is on top of its support zone at 38-36 and the upside objectives remain 54, initially, and 74 eventually. With downside risk from this level believed to be quite small, the other factors in this situation combine to suggest Reynolds Tobacco as an above-average purchase for investment at this time. The stock already is on the Quality & Long-Term Growth part of our Recommended List. Dow-Jones Ind. 947.45 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER Dow-Jones Rails 238. 30 WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market Jetter IS lJubhbht..d for ff,(OnVl'lllenc(' ,Ult'l Infol In,llmn IInrl …. nt III r In sell t …Iu It,ll, ttl forrnntJon a… ohtnme,j from we lwht'H' to 1,11.1J,1( lmt \\1' tlo not. It!; .Ir UI.I' W X C emltoYl'C,\ may hnve RII lntN(!st JIl or J)urrhn'll' Ilnu s11 thl L'amb rcfl'II,j to hClcm un ….fUr II WI 111' nnd d The wor ' WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 29, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 29, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - May 29, 1969
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Walston &- Co. – – – – – I n c – – – f i L e Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OffICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 29, 1969 The stock market continued reactionary throughout most of last week with the week's low being reached around 1100 a. m. on Thursday when the Dow posted an hourly figure of 933.23. The intra-day low on Thursday was 928.58, maklllg the total decline from the mid- May high 46 points or just under 50/0, a normal figure for a minor correction. Modest strength set in on Thursday afternoon and Friday,and the week's close was 1937.56 From a technical point of view, the decline since the middle part of May was normal ity personified. The top formed on the Dow in the first two weeks of the month yielded a downside objective of 938 which coincided with the strong support in the 930-920 area, the level at which the original base for the April advance had been formed. The Index pushed slightly further-'ifito,the support than mignCbeexpected,- but otherthan–thisthere wasverY,-little surprising about the decline. The pattern over recent years has been for short-term declines, such as this one, to be followed by a period of consolidation rather than an Immediate move upward, so that a week or two of irregularity would be the expected action at this pOint. Such a period could be followed by a move toward the 990 level which is the upside objective of the original base formation formed in February-March. As has been pointe out in previous letters, conSidering the present long-term stage of the market, act LOn can b expected to be highly selective with strength concentrated in higher quality issues selling on the lower end of their historic price-earnings-multiple range. Much has been made, of late, of the so-called money crunch, a phenomenon, which, while rather vaguely defined, does, without doubt, exist. It is statistically demon- strable that the Federal Reserve authorlties have reduced xxpansion in the mone supply sharply since early this year with the objective ion. The effect has, to date, not unexpectedly, been relatively is likely to be continued. 1\ V;f ti eing, however, it Widespread disagreement exists to the effects of current tight money efforts. The conventional ie uld indicate that such efforts will –p-roduce–contiriued high interest-rate – n , .. -d- '1'0 -edemoraiized-state -of the bondmarket at the moment would appear majority of the newer school of mone- taryeconomists, howev t as having a somewhat different effect. The initial effect of tig t e e s view, to cause a sharp rise in interest rates as in the present cas ,t onetary view would hold that shortly thereafter,the slower rate of expan . n f ey supply wlll cause a slackening of demand for new capital, and, therefore, a drop er than a rise in interest rates. It is, at least, arguable that the monetary contraction s proceeded far e mugh to date that, over the intermediate-term, lower lllterest rates appear almost a certainty. This probability leads to some rather interesting thoughts on the present investment scene. Money rates at present are at the highest level since the early 1920's, bond prices having been in an almost constant decline since 1946. It has been pointed out previously in this letter that the only regular pattern discernible in bond prices is one of very long cycles — twenty years or more in length runmng all the way back to the Civil.War. The enti period 1921-1946 constituted, with minor interruptions, a bull market for bonds, and the entire period from 1946 to 1969 has constituted a bear market. This bear market cycle is now twenty-three years old or about the average length of such a cycle historlcally. With monetary factors indicatiJ.g a possible intermediate-term bottom for bond prices, it is interesting to speculate as to whether this bottom may not constitute the once-in-a-lifetime turning pOint, in other words, if 1969 may not see the beginning of an interest rate downturn lasting for two decades. If this,s-thecase, and it is only conjecture at this point, the effect on stock prices is likely to be nil. Indeed, no discernible technical relationship between bond and stock prices which has worked for any period of time has as yet come to light. It could, however, have an effect on the relative performance of issues which tend to sell on a rate-of-return basis such as utilities and other defensive quality stocks. Dow-Jones Ind. 937.44 Dow-Jones Rails 233.40 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'5 mnrkct Jettel IS l)uhln,hed for ).OUl f'OnV!..nI('nce Jllllj mfDrm.dlon Iwd ' not .HI offer to sell or sollclt.atlon to Lu\ In) i .ormation WitS ohtmne(l from soure' w(' hf'h('v. to be rl'h.lhlc hut we do not 1(U1.rnnt('c It6 R('curacy alston & C . dISCUS tod Th I t ffi sd In- may have an Interest In or pur('has' nnd …ell the 'UlltH'S r('rl!lrcd to hClcln ' o. nco .In( ISO ccrs. ITLctors or . mb WN.SO\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 06, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc —-Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS – J L'E. TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 6, 1969 Question If what goes up, comes down, – will what goes down come up Answer TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INCORPORATED Current Price 123 1/4 The latter variation on the cliche cited Current Dividend 0. 80 above often has been related in the past to Current Yield O. 60/0 the movement of securities. It is a well Long Term Debt 52,900,000 known fact of market life that fads and fash- Common Stock .' 10,940,190 shs. ions have their day as the popularity of groups 770,000, 000- -wax-and then wane-as 'the fad changes. StfCli…. -H Sale-s-1968 671,230,000 has it always been in the marketplace and like- Earn. Per Sh.1969-E. 2.75 – 2.85 ly will it so remain far into the future. What Earn. Per Sh. 1968 2.41 is a particularly hot item one day has been Mkt. Range 1969-68 127 3/4 – 86 1/4 known to leave investors cold the next. The antithesis of this suggests, therefore, that what is avoided one day eagerly may be sought after the next day. Testamony to these thoughts seems to be amply demonstrated by a review of the performance of the Electri- cal Equipment and Electronics industrial group in recent years. A glance at the charts for this group of stocks reflects that they were much in fashion in the 1964-1965 period and again in 1966 after the market completed the sharp downtrend that characterized much of the latter year. The advance that characterized the group from the final three months of 1966 to approximately the ffas quickly followed by a falling out of favor that brought about a fairly sJtl6rp li of the issues in this industry. Thus, the group has been through a ow and now seems to be at the point from which the potential for capital 've. This now would ap- pear to be the case for TEXAS ) Texas Instruments (TXN) is one f t r t f t' lectrical-Electropics group –. operatlOn on '9, tndustry. The rapidity with which-it — increased revenues and s bears mention. From under 92 million in 1958, sales r se to 1 n st year and are expected to easily exceed 700 million this yea pe mance has been equally dramatic, with the results for the current ye a ost four times the 74 a share reported a decade ago. Earnings rose to an ic of 3.30 a share as early as 1966. Although price- earnings multipJ,es are lkely to return to the unusually high level of only two years ago, the indicated improv nt in earnings performance is expected to bear favorably on future multiples. Fears that the current controversy over defense items and military expenditures will result in cutbacks in these areas by Uncle Sam, the industry's No.1 customer, responsi- ble for about 550/0 of industry output, would appear to be somewhat unwarranted. Industry analysts argue that a Vietnam peace would be partially beneficial to the industry since the lion's share of current Government purchases are for hardware rather than for sophisti- cated products, and the resultant cutback on companies able to quickly adjust and shift to a new demand pattern should have only a temporary effect on operations. TXN is increas- ing its diversifica.tion to take advantage of the attractive potential afforded by industrial and commercial markets. Certainly the areas of data processing and TV where.the demand for integrated circuits is mushrooming offers above-average sales potential. Technically, the stock has been forming a base going back well over a year that has created an area of support between 112 and 95. This base also now provides the setting of an initial price objective around the 165 level with a higher goal readable at 185-190. Now being added to the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List, Texas Instru- ments shares are recommended for current purchase by investment-oriented accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 924.77 Dow-Jones Rails 230.39 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO., INC. HWLat This market letter IS Ilubhshed for your ('onventenee and mformatlon and 1'1 not lin offer to sell or II. '1ttilcltatlon to bu) Hny secUrities dlscussM The mformntlOn was obtained from sources we believe to be rehable, but we do not guarantee Its RccurllCY Walston &. Co, Inc, lind Its officers, directors or employees mlljt have an mterest m or purchase and .sell the 8eCurltlt'S referred to herem, WNSOI .1. 11.,.11110. . .1,11&. -!

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 16, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 16, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 16, 1969
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Walston &CO. —-Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS 1 L r;. . lABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 16, 1969 WESTERN UNION TELEGRAPH COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Pfd. Stk. (all classes) Common Stock SaleS-1969 Est. Sales-1968 .,… . Earn. Per Sh. 1969-Est. 54 112 Most of the problems in our society today 1. 40 seem to hold a distinct affinity with misunder- 2.6 standing. If through some method a formula 191,172,318 can be devised whereby misunderstanding is 1,192,531 shs. made to be outdated, so much the better we'll 8,888,000 shs. all be for it. In the meantime, however, mis- 395,000,000 understandings persist, with much of the blame 360,-100,000 -due to-the-inability of persons.,.and states 2.50 municate with one another. The ability to com- Earn. Per Sh. 1968 Mkt. Range 1969-68 2.03 58 3/8 – 31 municate, therefore, is the primary goal. WESTERN UNION (54 1/2) was founded on this need and continues to exist today in order to bet- ter service tha.t need. Its sole purpose is to provlde better communications and in this ef- fort it appears to have marshalled an impressive array of forces. Because of these forces and what we feel to be their future effect on our times and our economy, we are recom- mending the purchase of Western Union common shares by investors. The trend in recent years in areas of public service has been toward customer-to-cus- tomer services and Western Union has moved aggressively to provide these services. In this area, WU provides Telex, a fully automatic teleprinter exchange service which per- mits subscribers to dial any other subscriber and a direct connection As of year-end 1968, there were WU Telex exchanges in 4 Wlt more than 26, 100 subscribers and a waiting list of 2500 additional tio The company also provides Shared-System Ser w 1 ilize the multiple-access capabilities of the computer centers in sub e type of private communica- tions network for .-rec -keeping without major invest- – Grams, Perfume-by-Wire, t e facUities, a facsimilie service for trans- mission of communi a other graphic material, etc, also are offered. To service t e of the Federal government, WU offers AUTODIN, a nationwide comput c trol communications system for the Defense Dept., GSA Ad- vanced Record Syste to ve the civilian agencies of the government, and other systems serving the FBI, Air ather Service, NASA, Joint Chiefs of Staff, etc. Early this year, WU entered into agreement with the Bell System for the purchase of the Teletypewriter Exchange Service (TWX). If permitted by the FCC, this TWX pur- chase will permit the combination of TWX and WU Telex into a unified teletypewriter ex- change service which should substantially enhance future earnings. An earnings comeback appears to be in store for WU, based on encouraging reports for the final quarter of 1968 and the first three months of 1969. Although a recent offer- ing increased outstanding common shares by 17, no dilution in earnings is anticipated since most of the proceeds are to be used to retire debt where savings in interest charges about equal what otherwise would have been dilution. This is true only as long as WU earn ings remain free of liability for Federal Income taxes. Earnings of 2. 50 a share are estimated for' 1969, up from 2.03 lasfyear and 1. 61'1.n 1967. Further lmprovement is anticipated'for i970.; . z;,' to..tet1 fo- 711. ,n1Llw'; for lP7G. The company believes that based on its estimate of 1969 income, all dividends paid on its common stock will represent a return of capital and therefore will not be taxable as dividend income but rather as long-term gains and therefore at the lower rate prevailing for such gains. Technically, Western Union has been building a base for three years and has created an important level of support in the 48-44 area. This same base suggests a price objective at 68-70 initially, followed by a higher goal readable in the 95-100 area. In view of these promising prospects and the improving fundamentals, we are adding Western Union to the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List. Dow-Jones Ind. 894.84 Dow-Jones Rails 222.69 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO., INC. AWTHWLat Thill market letter is published for your convenJ('n('e and m(ormnhon nnd Ifl not an offer to sell or n 'IOliCltllt(m to LuI' any securll1021l The In- formation was obtained from sources we h(!1ieve to be r(!lIable. hut WI'! do not !(\Iarantee Its \Val!rton &. Co. Inc. nnd Its officers. directors or employees may have an mterest In or purchase and sell thi'! SCCUfitleo; referred to herein. WN-8() ii.' r . , , …. , -, I, ,u; ,' . .11,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 20, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 20, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 20, 1969
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Walston &Co.—–Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 20, 1969 There was little in the way of encouragement in last week's stock market per- formance. The four-week-old downswing continued unabated, with the Dow Jones Indus- trial Average slipping to a new 1969 intraday low of 873.32. Two abortive attempts at a rally were made, the first when a twelve-point slide reversed itself in the final hour of Tuesday's trading, and the Dow rose some seven pOints on a late tape. This was follow- ed by strength Wednesday morning, but the rise soon petered out and almost all of the gains were erased by the close. The slide continued on Thursday and a rather tepid rally on Friday morning was also squelched, the Dow again ending in minus territory. The viciousness and breadth of the decline coupled with the ease with which the support ar92-0900-wa-spenetrated was, qUlte-cand1dly-;–surprising toth(s -letfer. fac-C that the investment environment had deteriorated markedly since the end of last year was nothing new. In March of this year we pomted out that more stocks were in confirmed downtrends than had been the case in sometime. The number of such stocks has been in- creased even more by the recent weakness, eV1denced by the skyrocketing numbers of new 1969 lows being chalked up by individual issues – – – as of a week ago, almost 500/0 of the entire list. Still, before palsied fingers reach for the panic bcitton, it is perhaps worthwhile to make a few attempts to put the current declining stock market mto perspect- ive. Two sorts of technical measurements are relevant in the present case. The first kind attempts to gauge what the market has been doing. The second is an attempt to gauge the internal market structure and its susceptibility to a The first type of measurement – – an analysis 0 e On't rend – – – is, quite obviously, bearish. The Dow is now down 11. 30/0 1.13 in s, the ninth most serious decline in the past thirteen years, To put per ive, however, it must be noted that many declines of i are hardly remembered as great d1sasters. There were two such drop i 56, ther one in 1965, and most re- cently, the decline betwe..en R9'57 ch,.196R,which,incidentally,closel. resembles the present one of stocks declining) the rese terms of market breadth (the number more severe, although again hav- .. – ing none of the char t u eclines as those occurring in 1962, 1966, or even 1960. It is hard sion to state that the current trend 1S downward, and evidence of revers sons – ously absent. To get an id a ow far the decline may carry, however, we must turn to study- ing the market's int 1 condition and ask ourselves whether the internal factors condu- cive to a major decline are, or may be present. Let us mention just a few factors. 1. Previous major declines have, mevitably been preceded by rising confidence and an increasing multiple of earnings being paid for equities. The price-earnings ratio for the Dow over the past two years has been falling rather than rising. 2. Previous bear markets have also started when very little cash was available for investment in the hands of institutions. In the present case, institutional cash position is at record levels. 3. In the past, major bear markets had been foreshadowed by decreasing volume. Volume, so far, in this market, is remaining high. 4. Another universal precursor of previous declines has been an extremely low short interest. The present short-interest, while declining,is-still hardly at a low figure7 5. Most important, perhaps, previous bear markets have been accompanied by an almost universal deterioration in stock patterns, Despite the number of stocks in down trends, a large number of patterns are at the moment still potentially strong. It is in summary, difficult to argue against the probability of lower market levels over the near-term, At the moment, however, it is difficult to envision the present drop as a start of a major bear market, and we are inclined to suspect that the ultimate recov- ery may be as surpriEiing aEi- was the decline. Dow-Jones Ind. Dow-Jones Rails 876. 16 216.13 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO., INC. AWTat ThiS mnrk(.t l(tt('l IS \uhhthNI fOI OUI .. and .ind 1, not an offl to edl 01 a ''If)h(,ltation to hu) .lIt The In- (ormatIOn WlI, obtained from we iwh,'c to be rO,IMhle, but \\1.' do not gunl.lntcc Its \alston &. Co. Jnr an.l It; officcls. dlrcttor, or employees rna) have an Interest In or purchase nll'\ !;ell the Ietrl cd to herein

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 27, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 27, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - June 27, 1969
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 27, 1969 For those who believe that market bottoms must be active affairs with late tapes and all the classical signs of a selling climax, last week's action offered little to confirm the hope that a bottom had been reached. The Dow-Jones Industrials staged another minor rally from noon Monday to noon Tuesday, but spent the rest of the week sliding off and posted a new closing low on Friday at 869. 76, although the intra-day lows on Monday, Thursday and Friday were at around the same level. For whatever it is worth, the Dow showed the least favorable picture of the market. On both Thursday and Friday the S&P 500 advanced, there were more advances than declines, and upside volume, as measured by Quotron, exceeded dr-oiwsen.sid-e volume. – – -tQl5N-k-1-l-t.it.though,it.was,hardly.a.vigorous.mar.ket It would be difficult, in view of last week's action, to assert with any confidence that the nadir of the stock market slide had been reached. Indeed, based on past experience, probabilities actually favor a lower market over the near-term. However, — and it is im- portant to understand the distinction, — the proposition that stocks have reached what will ultimately prove to be an attractive buying level, is a good deal easier to defend. Let us see if we cannot document this proposition a bit further. As we noted in last week's letter, the market had, by the low of last Monday, reached what can be called a deeply oversold position and had, by the end of that week, rallied sharp ly from that position. Now, the term oversold is one of the more abused in the stock mar- ket lexicon, but we refer here to the number of declining stocks over a relatively short pe- riod measured against the number of issues traded. without going into de- tail, that prior to this year, the market had reached a co a a level only fiftee times since 1956. ((0 The dates of the fifteen occurrences are t e w. In each case, the dat is three days after the maximum oversold condition ea ,making it comparable to the close of Thursday of this week. The falr ere sting. The first column 11 e tly.-r.eached-1ow.Ascanbeseen, the market did, in fact, move on t een occasions, and on three of those occasions a further . What is more interesting, howeve is the percentage chang . months later and a year later. In thirteen cases out of fifteen, the ar w,' e x months after the registration of an oversold positio comparable to that k in fourteen cases out of fifteen, it was higher a year later. The numerous arp es recorded document the fact that conditions such as those evidenced this week hav een present at every major bottom in recent market history. This is a record that is dif cult to ignore. CHANGE IN DJIA Date At Next Low Six Months Later One Year Later 6/4/56 10/4/56 10/24/57 9/23/59 9/30/60 6/7/62 6/27/62 10/4/62 10/31/62 6/17/65 5119/66 8/3/66 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 – 11 0 -4 0 -5 – 15 – 12 2 1 6 -1 19 7 21 22 22 9 -9 2 4 -3 24 -6 21 21 33 27 29 2 1 8 9/1/66 -6 7 13 10/12/66 -1 13 19 2/21/68 -3 9 10 Whether this week's action will-constitute a major bottom such as 1957,1960,1962 and 1966, an intermediate turning point such as those of 1956, 1965 or 1968, or a prelude to lower prices such as 1959 or May 1966 is, at the moment, difficult to say and the answer will probably be afforded only by subsequent action. It would appear, however, that an interesting juncture lies just around the corner. ANTHONY W TABELL Dow-Jones Ind 869.76 Dow-Jones R81ls 212.62 WALSTON & CO INC .. This market letter IS Ilubhshed for your convcnll'nce nnd mfO malmn nnd 1'1 not fin offer to aell 01 It '1oltutntlon to buy lin) M'euTltles dlscua'Joo The Informntlon WII'! obtamed from source!! we hellevl' to be rl'it.ll.l', but we do not gUHrantec its accuracy Wtlston . Co, Inc und Its officers. duectors or employees may have an Ultercat m or Jlurchase alld sell the SeCUritLes referred to herem. WN.sol ..an. aiLi ,'lUi'aa& Ii ….Wi ..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1969
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W—-a–l-s-tIoncn–&—-C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange, OVER 11)0 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 3, 1969 Expen.ence 1. S the 0 nly proph ecy 0 fW'1se men …….. Alphonse de Lamartine The past is the key to the future! This has proven to be especially true over the years in regard to the actions of the stock market. It is not at all difficult today to find market letters and advisory services relating the sequence of past events and subsequent market activity. Of late, much can be read about Summer rallies, how often they have taken place in the fileable past and how well these rallies did in their respective upward movements. Only last week, this letter retraced the history of the last 13 years with regard to oversold levels and subsequent changes in the Dow Industrial index six months later. Thus;-investors often'turn 'past-for-their-solace; espectally'whe– market events have proven unsettling. In reviewing the past, it is interesting to note one particular piece of information that has generally gone unheralded by the investment commu nity as the bearishness of the last several weeks grew ever more intense, The market, as registered by the DJI, reached a peak in May of this year and started into its decline from a closing high of 968.65 (intra-day peak of 974.92). The closing low was reached late in June at 869. 76 (intra-day nadir 862.46), a drop of almost 100 points on a closing basis and 112 points on an intra-day basis. This decline has had the effect of turning many a bull into a bear and generally has worked unfavorably on investor psychology. In recent days it has not been difficult to find market analysts predicting much greater declines later on in the year, and one advisory service recently said that the best Christmas bonus this year will be the end of 1969. But, if indeed the past is the key to the future, there hope for the balanc of 1969. It is a fact that the Dow Industrial p te 'ng high only once in the month of May since 1900. That particular 0 nce in almost 70 years did May manage to win out as the high month for the Th cent high of 968. 65 really is not so very far away from the present ustrials. It came down in less than two months and the year 1969 ef . 1t. July is a bullish month normall market averages increase – – — .p.o – -rIng JulY-than forarlYother-month, and the most consistent record i investment climates Since the turn of the century is held jointly b n fact, since 1900, July has recorded more tha twice as many adva c s, vs. 23, to be exact. We are, we b I C n n a rallying phase that most likely will be referred to a the Summer Rally of 6. eavily oversold position now has been altered to one more approaching a neutral st e, which in turn is expected to turn into an overbought condition before the rally ends metime in the several weeks ahead. At least, this is the anticipated schedule. The extent of the rally probably is not as important as the duration. A rather long drawn out rally, with backing and filling, would build a base that not only could afford sup- port in any subsequent downturn but also prov1de the basis for a later advance, Earnings for the second half are difficult to predict at present. Perhaps the earnings on the DJI will be somewhat less than the previously estimated 63 a share. Also, perhaps the recent market decline already has adjusted for this disappointment. If so, then there is a possibility that the lows for the year may have been recorded and that May 1969 just might step aside later in the year to hand over the prize for the closing high to another month yet to come, maybe November or December, both of which are on record as normally being bullish months, Thus, cgreaLpessimism seems uncalled for. , . In the past it has proven good investment sense to seek out values in the market place, not regardless of the general market climate, but often m spite of it. The market has been in poor health in recent weeks, but many stocks and stock groups can be found that have re- covered from their illnesses. It is in these industrial groupings that investors aoe most likely to find situations of greatest interest. While no one knows now what will be the next glamor group, there are certain groups that appear to have the technical factors and the fundamentals in their favor. Among these we would include OFFICE EQUIPMENTS, DATA PROCESSING,-RET.AILING,..JJRUGS & COSMETICS and selected OILS. ,- I Dow-Jones Ind. 886.12 Dow-Jones Ra ils 212.30 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb ThIS market letter IS lluhho;hed fOI ('onYemenl'(' lind mfOlm.ltlOn nnd J.!. not nn offl'r to 'leU 01 .-I sohrlU\hon to bu\ ,111) 'e('untu.'S lhseus'Il'd The in- formatIOn ,,\I obtnlned flom '-OUf(',…, WI'' 1,,'II('\'1' to h(' rehablt,. hut I' tin not ltUarantee Its .11'('ur.I('3 \\-'III;lon & Coo. In(' ,inri Ils offieerl!. (hrectors or cmploy'1 may have an Interest III or urehuse and bell the W(.\lI Ltll' ll'fl'r! I'd to helem. WN.aOl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - July 11, 1969 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - July 11, 1969 page 2
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Walston &- Co. – – – – – I n c – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other PrincIpal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OfFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 11, 1969 The 1969 market slide picked up steam and took equities to new lows last week with the Dow-Jones Industrial Average reaching a bottom of 844. 30 on Thursday. The decline began early in the week, when the rally of the flrst week in July failed to hold in Monday's trading, and a 3-point loss in the Dow on Monday was followed by a preclpitouS 34-point slide over the next three days. A mild rally on Friday trimmed the losses somewhat, but the advance was unimpressive, with advanCing stocks barely exceeding declines. From a technical point of view, the market picture is now an interesting one, paradox- icallyoffering, on the one hand, the prospect of lower prlces and yet, on the other, the ,possibil-ity of an point not too far inctheJuture.As oLJune.27th,when.the. previous low in the Dow was recorded, the market had entered one of the unusual deep over- sold conditions which generally characterize declines of major importance. As discussed in our letter of two weeks ago, such conditions have characterized major bottoms in the past, but they have also occurred at intermediate bottoms within the context of longer-term down- trends. In such cases, they have been followed by periods of further distribution and an additional precipitous slide in prices. The tepid rally of June 37th-July 3rd was hardly sufficient to allow for further distribu- tion, and the oversold condition was never fully corrected. It thus appears more than likely that the next low to be reached could develop into a major turning point. Pinpointing the level of such a low is, at best, difflcult. Market downswings create their own momentum and traditional support levels tend to mean little, Just as they have meant little in the decline so far. The most bearish of the 1968-69 top would call for a retracement of the enttre advance fro 9 ve to the 750 level. This appears unlikely at the moment. A more i eo' tive is the 830-820 range, or a retracement of that portion of the advan e ich b in March of 1968. Such an objective would also make sense in that 0/. ow the June 27th low. This ben bottoms of the If the above analysis is Jl&t& weakness will provide a buying opportu- nity. Generally after a eriou d , !iharpest rebound is provided by two kinds of stocks – those which dest on the way down, and those which have gone down the least or d . It is generally a mistake to try to pick bottoms tn the first category. h pot hl gains are large, risk is great and the absence of any readable downside obj ct makes the possibility of mis-timing purchases rather hlgh. We would prefer to conc ate purchases in those stocks which have proved resistant to the decline and which appear to have reached short-term downside targets. Among the issues and industries which would appear attractive for purchase at levels not too far under cur- rent market prices would the following. Brewing Rheingold, SChaeffer, Schlitz. Broadcasting American, Columbia Broadcasting, Taft Broadcasting. Chemi!cals Atlas, Big Three Industrial Gas & Equipment, Nako. Communications Comsat, Western Union. Containers-Metal Continental Can, Crown Cork & Seal. Cosmetics Alberto-Culver, Avon, Lanvin-Charles of the Ritz. Drugs Merck, Parke Davis, AmericanHospital Supply, American Sterilizer, Carter-Wallac Electronics Texas Instruments, AMP Inc., Burndy Corporation. Savings & Loans Flrst Charter Financial, Glbraltar Financial, Great Western Financial. Foods Campbell Soup, Borden, Kraftco Corp. Machinery Caterpillar Tractor, Clark EqUlpment. Office Equipment Addressograph, Computer Sciences, International Business Machines, Sperry Rand, Xerox. Oils Pacific Petroleum, Superior Oil, Standard Oil of Indiana, Royal Dutch. PaPers Mead Corp., International Paper, Union Camp Corp., Westvaco. Retailing Federated Dept. Stores, Sears Roebuck, Jewel Companies, Von's Grocery. Dow-Jones Ind. 852. 25 Dow-Jones Rails 205. 58 ANTHONY W. T ABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS m,arket It'ttcr IS published for your convemence ami In(orlllll(lOll and not an o1T(t to sdl or a ItltlOn tu 10\1\ ,lin rll …cussed The In. formatIOn was obtamed from sources we bch('v( to he rt'lmblp, hut v.e do not IUllr.1Il1ee Its aCCUrIlC, \\'.II;ton & Co. Inc and lts officel),!J llre.tQrs or employees may have an mter(!!;lt m or Imrchase and bell thl' 'll'(.untl(,'l l('ferred to herCIn. t' ', WN301 –!1 .( .July 11, 1060 ALL I The prcclpitolls market decline of the past two clays comlDg on top of ./ the deeply oversold condition which had been reached on .June 27th points' strongly to the following conclusions. (1) The market IS probably going lower. (2) The bottom when it occurs will be of at least inter-mediate term,and quite possllJly, major proportions. The present 'wultiple climax selling waves,from a teclmical pomt of view in other words,are strongly rcminiscent of major market lows such as 1962 and 1966. As noted above, nearterm possibiltty is for lower prices and a tentative target in terms of the Dow-.Joles Industrial Average would be in the 830-820 range, although it is very difficult in this sort of a market to pinpoint absolute targets for the average. Would, however, he a buyer 0f above-average Issues on clips into that range and would in addition suggest purchases on any evidence of a climax reversal, i. e., a sharp drop followed by an equally sharp recovery both on above average volume. At the moment the most attractive purchase candtdates are those issues which are holdi ng above their February lows. Industrial groups in which most major tssues fall into this category mclude Cosmetics, Drugs, Office Equipments, Papcrs, Savings & Loans, and Retailers. Woulel strongJy emphasize such issues many buymg program but would set purchase levels blow present market in most cases. Anthony W. N.Y.

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