Viewing Year: 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 07, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 07, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - March 07, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

r-I Walston &- Co. lnc' – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TAB Ell'S MARKET lETTER March 7, 1969 Last week saw more of the wild gyrations typical of periods of market uncertainty. The week began with an extension of the February recovery, the Dow-Jones Industrials tacking on some 17 points in the first three trading seSSlOns. This was followed in Thursday' trading by an abrupt reversal and an almost-10-point loss which was extended another 9 points in early trading omF.rlda,y;rITlienj(Ctypical late- Friday strength set in, and most of the drop was recovered in the final hour of trading. The whole thing added up to a gain of some 6 points on the week. The week's wide swings were typical of an atmosphere in which many investors are -trying to decisions to' protectcapitalin the -Actually, a hmelike the — present is not a good time for hasty decislOn-making. The really tough decisions about the future of the market do not need to be made now, but at some time within the next few weeks. Let's see if we can't clarify this statement a little bit. The market, at last week's low, and again at the lows of this week, was notably oversold. (The word oversold has been accused of being an imprecise term used by technicians for obfuscation. We mean it here in a precise and measurable sense — In terms of the actual number of declining stocks and percentage change in the averages compared with prevlOus market bottoms). The over- sold condition was, in fact, so deep that some sort of a rally from the lows could and can be forecast with a relatively high degree of probability. At the same time, the immediate down side risk from the present level appears to be slight. It is ') 1 this next rally that the really hard decisions will have to be made, for it is the shape of this future upswing which will determine whether our conception of the long range has, in fact, been correct. .'\,)J To recapitulate, we have undergone, since b r, ree-phase decline — not at all an uncommon pattern. This decline a dr December and the first p of January, a rather tepid upswing into recent selloff to the lows of a T,he p,!st1,hree,mOl!tDs al c , Ra,ttern traced out in the past three years. T t r 'ou ccasions were, (1) 1966, with a de- cline in February-March, a a drop in April-May, and (2) 1967-68 when the market decline betw and November, rallied into early January and dropped off to a low i af aths of these two periods were, of course, quite different. The 19 6 ed a major buying opportunity and the market spent most of the last thre ter. 1968 in a dynamic upswing. The 1966 decline was, of course, followed by th v us liquidating wave of July-August. Looked at,fro e vantage point of the respective lows, i. e., May 1966, March 196 and February 1969, there is very little technical difference between the three patterns. The distinction, in the first two cases, came on the subsequent rise. In 1966, a tepid rally on low volume in May and June failed to provide any strong recovery evidence. By contrast, the sharp upswing of April 1968 was a distinct reversal pattern. It is to the forthcoming rally we must look for clue s as to how the 1969 pattern will shape up. We confess again our own bias in that we think the present looks a great deal more like 1968 than it does like 1966. We will, nonetheless, allow our thinking to be dictated by future events as they unfold. Meanwhile, the market weakness, as weakness always does, provides an excellent testing ground for the strength of individual stocks and industry groups. The present is no exception and a great many issues display what must be considered to be exceptional strength in the face of the general market selloff. There is common ground shared by many of these issues in that, by and large, they appear to be statistically cheap and to possess inflation hedge characteristics in the form of asset values and/or natural resources holdings Such groups showing above average action of late include Aluminums, Coals, Natural Gas, Fire and Ca.sualty Insurance, Oils, Paper, and Tobaccos. Other groups showing exceptional strength include Airlines, Banks, Farm Machinery, Motor Freight, Rails, Rubbers and Utilities. Purchase of issues of this type a.t current levels would seem to be the best possible protection against market vicissitudes. t Dow-Jones Ind. 911. 18 Dow-Jones Rails 246. 26 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thill market letter is p'Ubllshed for your convenumee nnd mforml!.t.lon ll.11d Is not an offer to sell or a sollcLtation to buy an)' secur.tlefl thscussed. The information was obtained from sources We betu!ve to be nhable. but we do not guarantee Its accurac). Walston & Co. Inc. and its officers. directors or employees may have an Interest in or purchase and sell the secuntle5 referred to hel ein WN801 ,, w

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 14, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 14, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - March 14, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER March 14, 1969 Be not the first by whom the new are tried, Nor yet the last to lay the old aside. Alexander Pope Essay on Criticism It is, let us face it, a brand new ball game. For some time now, ever since October 1966 to be exact, there have been certain distinct charasteristics of the investment environment. A great many of these character- istics have changed, and they-have changed -rapidly. – Oneortlie' market advance of the past two years had been, until recently, the paucity of stocks in dis- tinctly weak'technical positions. To oversimplify, the market consisted of a number of stocks thatwere moving up, a number moving sideways, and practically none which were moving do,);n. The weakness of the latter part of 1968 and early 1969 has changed this picture There are now more stocks in confirmed downtrends than has been the case jn some time. H,8.ving unburdened ourselves of this observation, we must now face the question that will inevitably be asked, Is it a bear market The answer is we doubt it. i ,To a great many investors, the past six months one of the worst sort. The carnage that has been wrought t 0 a bear market, and rOolios heavily in- ves!ed in, say, has been fully equal Wtthe i s i' upon holders of television stocks in 1966, or the transistor t moment, the num- ber of stocks down 30, 40 and 50 from highs mad/l…oA.y 1 ear is typical of the advanced stages of a major downswing. Yet, e, in terms of the averages, it is fact trials are off some 8 1/2 from a ft e a.RPened. The , sago — hardly major weakness by anybody's standards. e the number of major downtrends has substantially increased, e a ' f' u s still appear to have their long-term up- trends intact and, i e 1 c Just be ginning. Now, Ishly inclined who will admit that a great many stocks have held up well, but will po' ut, and correctly, that, in the final phase of a decline, the good is taken down alo with the bad. We are inclined to doubt that this will be the case in this instance, however. We think that what we are seeing at the moment is no more than the final verification of a phenomenon remarked by this letter repeatedly over the past year — – the shift in leadership to higher-quality, relatively unexploited issues. It is all too painfully clear where the downswing of the past few months has been concentrated. It is centered around the speculative leaders of the 1966-67 upswing. It has been a particularly poor time to have overstayed the market in last year's winners, and we suspect this situation will get worse before it gets better. The solution to the investor's dilemma at.this stage of the market is not cash but a rigorous upgrading of portfoliOS into the highgrade issues neglected in the 1966-67 speculative upsurge which are now just lately coming into technical prominence. We suspect that this policy will payoff, not only in terms of capital protection, but before too much time has elapsed, in the form of handsome capital gains. , Dow-Jones Ind. 904.28 Dow-Jones Rails 241. 92 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thill market letter is published for your convenience and lllfOlmntlOn nnd IS not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to hu) Rny .securities uISCUSSed. The in- formation was obtatned.from 8Ourc('o; we believe to be rehable. but we do not Its !ccurnc)', Walston & Co., Inc. and Ita officers. directors or emDloyees may have an mtere!lt In or lJuFehase and sell the securitles referred to helem. WN.Bll –…

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 21, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 21, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - March 21, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

r '. Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange / and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S LETTER March 21, 1969 Last week, 's market action did little to resolve the dilemma which has been facing in- vestors over the past month or so. A smart rally at mid-week took the Dow-Jones Industrial Average to an intra-day high of 926. 16 on Friday, just under the 929.89 peak of early March. The Index then backed away in desultory action late Friday. The Dow has thus continued for almost a month in a sidewaysA;t;ladinglrange bounded by rough intra-day limits between 895 and 930. Indecisive action at the moment is hardly unexpected. The market is approaching a critical juncture, and the events of the next thirty days or so will probably contribute, in a m19a6j9o.r way, to solving the dilemm(l. o(the,,-m. ar-j-et' s di-r.e–c-t-i-o..n for most of the- rema-i'nd–e-r–o-f'– To illustrate this, let us try to separate the action of the Dow-Jones Industrial Aver- age over the past 2 1/2 years into Major, Intermediate and Minor trends. (Those with a chart book handy may want to follow the discussion by reference to a chart of the Dow). First of all, the long-term trend. This can be defined by an uptrend channel containing the Octobe 1966 low of 735.74, and the December 1968 high of 994.65. The market is still within the confines of this channel, the lower limit of which is presently somewhere around the 880 level. Next, the intermediate trend. Until recently, this trend was defined by a steeper up- trend line running from the March 1968 low of 817.61 through the December high. This trend channel was decisively penetrated on the downside in early January. At the moment, there- fore, the intermediate-term course of the market can be regarded as, at best, uncertain. Lastly, the short-term trend. This is defined, obviously downswing between the December high and the February 1969 low of s is still in effect with a current upper confidence limit around 935. To summarize then — the long-term trend re(lYl up, ough close to the lower part of its trend channel; the 1 rtain; the short-term trend is down. Thus,the ba.sisfQJ' the Let us outline the two POSSibi be.reSQlyed. – II l01fl ution. On tpe bullish side, a move to the 935-940 level would do of all, destroy the short-term down- trend which has contain e for ht-'ee months, and it WOuld, secondly, remove, at least for the time b i a 'b of destroying the long-term uptrend by returning the Dow to the middle t n annel. On the other hand, a decisive move to below, say, the 880 level, would short-term downtrend to intermedi8te-term proportions and, more important, call i uestion the whole structure of the basic longer-term upswing channel that has prev . ed ever since the end of 1966. As can be gathered from the discuss- ion above, these forces are now converging and a resolution is likely within a relatively short period of time. Now, this discussion has been confined to the Dow-Jones Industrial Average whiCh, of course, is just one indicator of what the market overall is doing. At the moment, as we have indicated in recent issues of this letter, it is almost impossible to describe the whole marke by the action of a single index. Selectivity is now vicious. Many stocks are in clearcut long term downtrends, and a great many others, despite the poor action of the market, are pre- sently in clearcut uptrends on both a long-term and intermediate-term basis. There is, for example, nothing in the discussion above that will be very illuminating in describing the average paper, oil, aluminum orsteel stock. Mo'st of these issues are,in clearcut major an intermediate uptrend channels, and in some cases (new highs were made in a number of paper issues last week) the short-term trends can be defined as upward as well. We, therefore, continue to feel that the investor'S most SUitable protection at this stage lies in upgrading portfolios so that they consist, almost exclusively, of quality issues such as the ones suggested above, and others on our Recommended List. In the event the current impasse is resolved on the upside — as we think it is likely to be — it is in those stocks that have resisted the decline that the future upside action will be centered. If the downtrend moves into something more dangerous than we have seen so far, these issues will, it is true, be affected, but the decline is likely to be less steep and the rebound all the stronger. Dow-Jones Ind. 920.00 Dow-Jones Rails 243.97 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter IS pubhshed for your convenience and mfOrm1l.tlon and IS not an ofTt.r ,to sell or It '1011clt.ntlon to /lny securIties dl;cussed The in- formation was ob4uned from sources we belu've to be rehnl)le, but …. e do not guarantee Its necura!'). ,'alston t.. Co, Jne and Its offieers. hr('(tor; or AWTamb may have an Interest In or purchase and the se('unt.e; refured to herem, WN.!

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 28, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 28, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - March 28, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER March 28, 1969 The fox barks not when he would steal the lamb. Shakespeare Somewhere in the dusk that is the future can be detected the grey outline of a monstrous boom — a boom that looms larger every month it is postponed. When it does reveal its lovely self, it is going to have an effect on every nook and cranny of our economy and, particlilarly so, on the Savings & Loan Industry — the weathervane of every residential housing upsurge. Interest on the part of Informed money already is being whetted, as reflected by steady accumulation of Savings & Loan shares. By the hme public psychology spotlights the group, many Issues likely Will have advanced beyond the accumulation stage. Prices of Savings & Coans have sharply – in large part to money market condItions. Although conditions presently are not conducive to a renewal of favorable market actIOn, there are indications that the worst could be near- ing an end. Favorable factors include' (1) The Federal Home Loan Bank, the regulatory agency for Savings & Loan compames, has taken a .onstruchve positIOn in making funds available for mortgages. (2) LiqUidity has been markedly increased. (3) Much of the savings inflow has been locked up in three-year bonus accounts. (4) Repossessions and foreclosures have been sharply reduced, helped largely by rlsmg demand for hving units in California areas. ThiS, In turn, has freed up some prevlOusly frozen funds. (5) Larger Savings & Loans have been engaged In widespread acquisition programs, absorbing many of the smaller, less well managed savings and loan companies. T1ns has resulted in variou operating economies. (6) Earnings benefIts are due m 1969 over of the in- dustry's loan portfolios a s earlier lower Yleldmg hfed and replaced with loans affording higher returns. (7) A hOUSing shor,ge i e n specially in Calif- ornia. (8) Final 1968 totals should show a pickup 10 I ahfornia housing starts, or about 150,000 starts. Further gains to nrar 180 llij star re expected this year. Demographic factors remain . 70' s the size of the prime home buymg age group, after hitting a 1. 9 million annual; are expected to be booking ting hitched. As recen e upward after sev 1 r cl. .a . are on the uptrend By 1975, 2.5 mIllion couples annually of eternal bliss, or, plainly speaking, get- vernment, the birth rate is also again trendmg This suggests a near-term future need for larger quarters for many e. Deposit Inflow m the key to S&L profItability, and for the hOUSing boom we anticipate, an expans of funds available for new mortgage debt must take place. Savings Loans ASSOCIatIOns recently reported a 3 larger net savmgs Inflow m February over the year earlier month. Should this continue through the Spring, the outlook would take on a definitely favorable trend. Historically, the group has a pattern of over-acting to various developments. This has been accentuated by the relatively thin floatIng supply of all lIsted issues. Total capital ization of the ten leadIng S&Ls is less than 50 million shares. The fl08t is believed to be less than half of this. The best situated S&Ls are those located in Cahfornia with only a minor portion of theIr depOSIts derIved from out-of-state sources. These non-CalIfornia depOSIts often are the most volatile in that they come and go, ever seeking highest yielcting Instruments. The sudden withdrawal of these funds caused much of the decline m liquidity and had an unfavorable effect on earnings. Our partIcular faVOrItes within the group include FIRST CHARTER FINANCIAL (43) and GIBRALTAR FINANC1AL (33 1/2), bot11 of which Jlready are on the Price Appreciation part of our Recommended List. From the techmcal view, much higher obJectives are readable for the entire group. Our particular price goals for First Charter and GIbraltar are 80 and 58, respectively. r nvestors aw.tre of the coming housing boom and willing to exerci se patIence will find, in ihis industry grouping, the potential for above-average capItal appreciatIOn. Dow-Sones lnd. 035.48 Dow-.Jones R8ils 24'3. 64 HARRY W. LAUBSCl-lEIl. FOIl. ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT'HWL'amb ThiS mnrket !'th'r III p\lhh'lhed or \ur ,,,I\H'nj.l1t' \11'1 ll,f,m'(I1l I, .. ,,1 III Il.j \ … 11 I ',,ullllll1 I I'ul e.. ,formntmn …. 1\'1 obtnln, frllm ,,111,1' (' 1,,111' In I.. 1'111.1. I.ul ,. ,! n,1 ..'Il.l!.,njc ,t … (IUII,\ \\-11 .. \ InC' mil) have lin III 01 1'1lh,I … lnd ..,II th, r'I'o h,ltll ',Ilnill The In In.! It-. flit, .., ,luN'lors or WN301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - April 03, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

Wdlston & Co. —–lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER KYSOR INDUSTRIAL CORP. Apnl 3, 1969 Current Price 39 1/4 Holding a Royal Flush is a pretty good way to Current DIvidend Current Yield 0.45 1. 1 win a poker game. Being in the right business at the right time is another way of becoming success- Long Term Debt 4,379,000 ful. Kysor apparently fits both these bills. Not only Common Stock 1,043,223 shs. does the group of companies it has assembled unde Sales-1969-Est. 45 000 000 its own corporate roof m years have above- Sales-1968 31' 200' 000 average potenhal, but m followmg the pathway of — – 0- – '' management saw fit to make Earn. Per. Sil. 1969-E 1. 90-2. 00 – earni-ngsin-any-way.- Earn. Per Sh. 1968 1. 43 Purchases have been made either for cash or for Mkt. Range 1968-69 17 3/4- 411/2 stock and even after assembling fourteen companie in less than five years, total outstanding debt is les than 4. 5 million. Kysor's activities cover several important areas. Last week this letter Introduced the spectre of a commg housing boom that is expected to dwarf all previous booms. Well esta- blished in the residenhal hardware held through Its Dexter subSIdiary, Kysor seems parti- cularly well situated to benefit from t111s anhcipated boom, one most likely to last well beyon the mid-1970's. With mobile homes contmuing their own particular boom, Kysar management is getting ready to train their able sales guns on thIS important market. Dexter is the third largest factor in the reSIdential hardware held and its just m the last eight months. lJ5-s more than doubled ,W Machme tools and related areas have been y in ent months and Kysor' achvities in thiS particular area have been no except . hrou arious Subsidiary compa- nies, KZ produces a full line of band saws a tmg machinery and cutters for milling machines. Although total Wgr9wth IS through increased h ar shll is small, the potential for et lOn and a steadily broadening overall markei10re of This figure is expecte t lally during the next five to ten years with a figure exceeding the 6 0 the 1980's. This also means that demand for refuse disposal eqUlpment '1 III 1 ase sharply. Kysor's Anchor Machine Company produces a complete refuse han stem and has installed more of these systems than any of its competitors. Produchv paclty is being increased and moves to increase the already high- ly effiCIent operations are under way. Some mdustry analysts have suggested that Anchor's sales could reach 20 million by 1973, vs. 1. 7 million m fiscal 1968. The real Ace in Kysor' s hand is ItS air-conditioning busmess. Keep your cool with Kysor could become the rallymg cry of thousands of Teamster's before long. Today, only a portion of trucks are air-conditioned. The powerful Teamster's Union is expected to change this situation, as they press their demands for 1000/0 of all long haul on the highway trucks to be air-conditioned. This demand IS going to be part of contract renegotiations starting late this year. This means the market for truck air-condItioners will rise from the present 15,000 umts mstalled in 1968 to over 150,000 umts annually by the end of 1972. Kysor's con tract with International Harvester calls for at least 4000 units annually. KZ is the leader in this field with about 80 of the available market. Kysor also is benefIting from the trend toward use of al!totp.atic radiator shutters on trucks, which increase engine effiCiency and reduce operatmg and repair costs. In 1968, KZ sold 140,000 shutter units, but volume is expected to more than double over the near term as the company goes after the much larger lighter weight truck market. United Parcel Service recently switched over entirely to shutters and Ryder Systems, a leading trucking operatlOn, now is convertmg all of Its rental fleet. For the fiscal year ending May 31, 1969, sales are expected to reach 45 million, up from 31. 2 million last year. Earnings are estimated at near 1. 90 a share, vs. 1. 43 a year ago. Prospects for fiscal 1970 are bright with 2.35 to 2.50 a share, or more, considered reasonable. Dividends are likely to parallel the uptrend in earnings. Technically, Kysor' s chart reveals a pattern of higher highs and hIgher lows, and a bas area that mdlcates a goal of 52. Already on the Speculative part of our Recommended hst, it again is suggested for purchase. Dow-Jones Ind. 927.30 Dow-JoneB Ralls 241. 52 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Th ,., III II .-1 II ttl I ,.., u1,11,,11, ,1 r, H '\11 , n II II, t' ,lid III r, ' fUl,Ll\nn \1.., nh(,ll'ltd f'''tl ii' ,H' 11,,,. ,11. ,,11110). 'lIllltn\l'i''1I1l,I h\\c In Inill.,,\ III )I 1'1 , h, ,01 …,I! Ih. AWTHWLamb It III ,II. I ,.. nol n ,011, I !,\I! \\, 01 IlI,t ,.!U.I' Hit , 1.,),1 ( h11 \ … II I I ..nJ,. IJ It II It-. ,'II, ' \\ ,1.. .. ! ,-' hu !In lJl II ,j, II' ,I 'I h, 111 ('''' Ilw ,\1\, Ih ,h . … Ild,(t'l'' 1)1 WN.'lH\

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - April 11, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

…- — – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock dnd Commodity Exchanges OVER 10C OA51 TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 11, 1069 Wl111e It would be an overstatement to descrtbe the stock market's performance of the last couple of weeks as impresslve, an objectlve observer would have to term lt at least mildly encouraging. If the patient can surVlve I blt longer wIthout a serious relapse, lt may well be posslble io sav thai recovery IS assured. Actually, 1he market's 1w1'VioJ smc(, 1he cebruary low has been fairly Iypieal. The move to em in'ra-day peak of fJ42. 21 on 111e i)ow at 1he end of M,H'ch W3S about the best that could be expected ('onslc!e,'mg the small base 1hat hJd bcen built. The decline by the 1l1cease In ,'eBervl' cclrried back to the 020 support level, and the recoverv to' an ll1tl'J. – clay 'peed, oj !J4-1c-28-on-'JaIll sday-hab. easeJLthe,-…. enilre 10S8. In 1he pI'OCCSS, 1he downtrend in effect 8111ce Ikeember has been fairly dec1si vely violated. The longer the market can remam firm, the stronger posltion we will be in. Thirty- one trachng days have now passed slI1ce thc February low, whlch is close to the limit of the permlsslbL, tune perIOd for a short-1erm rally In the context of a larger downtrend. (Since 1962 no such rally hds hlsted morc Ihan 16 days) Continued abllity to move to new 11lghs would thus have to be consldercd conslructlve. lVleanwllile, we relterate our theSIS Illat proper polley conSIsts of restricting in- vestnlent to stocks of stabillty and quallty. Not only wlll such mvestments provide down- slde protection, but In 1.l1e present market pholse they are likely to be ihe leaders lf a move toward the olel highs gets under way shortly. One such company is revIewed below. JEWEL COMPANIES (47 1/2). .. !\llthat glitters g6l , bu1 there would seet'l to he a good deal of golden potentJal m the ewel Companies. Investors should fmd much to smt thelr particular II &11sis'1n A-quality s10ck, both from the capltal appreclatIon and &I-income aspects. Tn recent years, .Iewel has m the grocery ch'a;; I;dustry. 1'h;- if l de e of aggresslveness not common the fact tllat sales 11ave more \;n and now are approachll1g Ille 1. 5 blllion mark. Better tl . n 75 btrsine ss denves from operations of lts 370-unit supermarket chain '1 'l15;fibm 133 drug stores and/ or drug departments, 76 bakerY-lce cre ! 2,000 home serVlce food and general merchandIse rouies, 9 self-servi d stores and overseas ll1terests. Additional expansion is slated for ihe year with 26 supermarkets, 22 drug stores, 35 conve- nience stores and betgn 15 LInd 20 other type shops planned to be opened. One of the very few grocery chams to go JJ1ternational, Jewel tOday holds a 17 mterest in a Belgian supermarket and department store chain, l!Jo/n in a cham of Belgian discount stores and 49 in an Itahan supermarket chain. The first dlvIdend was received from overseas mterests tIns past year. All this recent actJvlty has been reflected in earnings. For the fiscal year ended January 31, 1969, net rose to a record 3.01 a share, from 2.64 the previous year. In the current year, industry sources expect earnings to approximate 3.35 a share. In VIew of the improvmg earmngs, cash diVIdends were raised last September to a 1. 40 a share annual rate. Thls now affords a return apprOXImating 3, somewhat less than the average return for the last fifteen years. In view oftncreasing casb-dividends fromoverseas interests and rising earnings, furtber improvement in the diVidend payout rate during tbe current year would not be unexpected. Techmcally, the base bmlt over the last SlX years suggests an imtial price obJective near 68, followed by a higher goal readable at 80. Good support exists in the 45-42 area. Added to the Quality and Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended Llst this past January, Jewel Companies agam is suggested for purchase. Dow-Jones Ind, 933.46 Dow-Jones Rails 239.48 W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ,,'Ih, IUlllk,j I,ll., I'! 1'1I1,I1-.h,,1 f, ''''II ,,,\,nl''' 11101 ,,,r'tl''' .011 I t ,ltI .,ff . ,II ' , ..,,1'\,111' tn I,,,, Ill' UII', ,h,,'u….,, 'In. 11'- 10,111,\,,,,,,, … 1,1,,,,,,, fl''' \1,,,,-., \,,1'1 ,,, I 1,1,101, 1'111, 01, t g-II, d 1- \\,011,, ,\ I, 'lI' ,dt-. m .., dll,lOJ .. III Illl\ h'l ,Ill ' 11 plIl,hl' ,,,01 .,,1\ 'h, 'Ii'\ 1 .. 11,, ht'l1 WN30! , . – -.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - April 18, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

,, ;L Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST 10 COASi AND OVERSEAS ;./ LC TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April IS, 1969 Quality Long-Term Growth Price Colgate-Palmolive 49 1/2 Caterpillar Tr. (51), Addressograph Multi. (73 1/2) Continental Oil 35 l/S Phillips Petroleum (69), Superior Oil (21S) Kellogg Co Price Appreciation 42 International Paper (43 1/2)' Kraftco (45 3/4) Adams Millis Bulova Watch Burlington Ind. Chris-Craft Commonwealth Oil Diners Club Sharon Steel 17 5/S 47 3/4 37 45 1/4 23 5/S 27 1/4 43 1/2 Amer. Mach. Fdry (25 1/S), Pacific Petroleum (34 3/ Clark Equipment (3S 1/4), First Charter Fin. (43) Dresser Ind. (37 1/2), Dan River Mills (22 1/2) Koppers (46 3/4), Suburban Propane (3S 3/4) American Distilling (39 3/S), Copperweld Steel (23 5/ Air Reduction (2S 1/4), Amer. Mach. Fdry. (251/S) Ingersoll -Rand (45 1/2), Republic Stee1(46 1/4) Speculative Price Appreciation Electronic Specialty 17 1/4 American Motors (10 3/4), Amer. Mach. Fdry (25 1/ Home Oil A Microwave Assoc. 52 l/S 233/4 Pacific Petroleum (34 3/S), Mesa Petroleum (4S 3/4 Gibraltar Financial (363/4), Computer Scien. (623/4 UMC Ind. IS 3/S Campbell Chib. (9 5/S), Olin Mathieson (291/2) Victoreen Leece Neville 13 1/2 Campbell Chib. (9 5/S), Kysor Industrial (41 1/4) Removed effective with delisting of March 10, 1969 Dow Jones Ind. 924. S2 Dow-Jones Rails 236.40 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter IS pubhshcl for )our CORve-mcnee Ilnd mformahon and IS not an offer to sell or fl sohcltatlon to buy nn) securities dlscuseed The in- fOnDlltion was obtained from soure ! we bchevc to be rehable. but we do not guarantee ltS llccuracy Walston &. Co.. Inc. and Its officers. directors or AWTambemployees may have an interc5t In or purchase and sell the securities referred to herem. WNSO!

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - April 25, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

r– Walston &Co. Inc—– Mambe New York Stook Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER. 100 COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS F'- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 25, 1969 A standard forecast for the economy has, it seems, been just about arrived at with all the attendant perils that the emergence of such a forecast usually entails. The scena rio runs something like this. The first half of 1969 will retain Its momentum insofar as corporate profits are concerned, but by the second half, th( tight money policy of the Federal Reserve Bank, plus the fiscal policies of the Nixon administration, will make themselves felt,and profits will be under pressure 1ll the second half. Trymg to find a forecaster who does not believe something like the above is like trying to find one wh6 thinks the New York \1ets will win the National League pennant. The fact, of course, is that the forecast is probabl) a,-curate. What does it mean for the stock market Well, of course, stock market tops and bottoms tend to lead the economy rather than coincide with It, so a turndown in the economy starting in, say, June, may have been just what the market was trying to tell us when It started going down last December. Likewise, if the economy is going to move down, and thcn improve in 1970, a stock market rally starting in'june- or July, a month or two away, would not be unusual. In any case, we think. the best course is to own attractive values such as the following. AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS, INC. Current Price 43 1/2 Chemical stocks in general have been througl Current DIvidend Current Yield 0.20 stk. 0.5 the mill over the last year or so, reflecting an economic climate thl has caused a drag tn earn- Long-Term Debt !l4 75 Cum. Conv. Pfd, Common Stock Sales 1969 Est. 98,000,000 200,000 shs. 5,186,490 shs. 220, 000, 000 lllgS This problem conti- nues, but has b p trol of Elts al through ,'- better con pIckup in demand in s 0 R Dci line. Lower outlays , 1 also have helped improvp j Sales 1968 Ear'n, Per Sh, Per Sh. 1968 Mkt. Range 1967-1969 202,200,000 th,\ '!; i n!!5-u ook. 1\,2,45 – 210- llqpii'l ('\,ltnpal.,,'S III c,.J11'1',1 hdve rathp.r' ' 12. 2-\\ \ \; \llT.9vf.p'roduct 1111(S and SPcc,.lliz.aUon, ig'-rather 30 I49 – fu,.'Y-c \\1th111 th(' 1l1dustry, However;!t)s Just such // a special'7;ed company that attacts our attention I at present' Air llldustnal gases & S,' Inc., a leader III the productIOn and distriibution of I Il' ed e lpmellt. ' , As previously to be in construction, ed 111 these letters, the next r('ally bit; ('conomie boom is lLkf'l) , ight of thIs budding demand, tl1' outloo! for an lllcrease in steel proouctJ(ln would appear 10 be brlght, which in turn would call for greater ('onsumpt ion of I llIuustnal gases. The increaslnV- trend toward utiliatwo of r!lir og,'n g.l In We dr,v fr'ezinli f uf foods also D.ugurs well for future (armngs prospects. ,\11' lndutnal gases and related equipment account for about three-fourths of total sales, chrmicnls ami ('3ta1 sts, 17, and plant construction and services about 9. The company was piolleer in the con- struction of on -site plants, whlch eliminates transportatlOn problems and affords operating efficiencies to both producer and consumer. The complll)' also has its problems, most of wlH('lJ ('( ntpr around poor fcrhluer prices and a resultant unfavorablE' pricmg climate for nmmonia. flowever, continued increas( to industrial gas consumption 3n1 an expanding riwmicab operation suggest -hat ear1 LnG tn future w,ll 1,/' ..I II '101';1 x,'oiU rat' 1han tht typical of the pecenl past, Th(' fiscal, year ending September 30, 1060 is ( p,–ted to be the itr ,t year ,-,1 ti'L ' gam in profitability. ;lhare earmngs of between 2.45 and !2. SO a are cstimatC'd, lnm- parpd with 2,24 for the previous fiscl year, WhIle some improv(,l1wnt 10 the highly con ,p,r' vatlve a share quarl1'rly payout pate is likely to para, I 1) p ro tl' tn earl1logs, the stock shuuld not be ('onsi iered for income purposes, but primal',ly fop liS Hr, capital ,lppre- ('1 ation potential, over the longer pull. From the technical view, APD h'1S been creatlllg a chart pUern that indicates an 1ni- H;)l price objective III the mid-GO' s, followe,J by a hIgher goul readable at 88. On the downSldt! there is support iaent starting around 40, ,\ (,);'Z'\ bI'eakout on the upside would take pla('e at 50. Added to the Pric(' ApIH'(ciation section of (JUI' Re..'ommenrJed List in January, theSe shares again are recommended for purchasE' at pl'f'vailll1g IH'lel' l('vels, Dow-Jones Ind. 924. 00 Dow-Jones Rails 236,02 W, TtUl' W, LAL'BSCHER W\LS';O-;; & ro. IXC'.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 02, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 02, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - May 02, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS — – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 2, 1969 As so often happens III the stock market, lethargy came to an end thlS week and was replaced by fireworks. Following three days of rather grudgmg strength, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average scored a 9-point advance on Tuesday and followed this up with an even more spectacular Wednesday performance, advancing some 16 points on a trading volume of 19,350,000 shares. This volume was all the more outstanding considering its achievement in an abbreviated 4-hour session. Had the same pace been maintained throughout a standard 5 1/2-hour trading day, total volume would have been a record 26,300,000 shares. After consolidation on Thursday, strength on the week's final'day continued the gain with an intraday high of 961. 68 being reached. Where does all this leave the market at the moment It IS a trUlsm to say that the — short-term trend must now be defined as being up. But this IS, actually, the major change brought about by last week's manifestatlOn of strength. Late m March, the downtrend, which had remained in effect through December, January and February, was broken, and through- out April's sideways action, the short-term plcture had to be characterized as uncertain. Although, by last month, the selling pressure which had brought about the December-Februa decline had almost completely disappeared, the market was still unable to mount any worth- while action on the upside. This picture changed dramatically with Tuesday's and Wednes- day's heavy upside trading volume and moved the short-term picture from one of uncertainty to one of a rather clearly defined upward trend. How far can such a trend continue In terms of the Dow-Jones Industrials, a logical upside target would center around the 995 level. Thls for a number of reasons. It is, first of all, the upside ohjective of thJJ'0in n se formed in the 900-938 range throughout early 1969 — a range n ee clsively penetrated on the upside. Secondly, it mvolves a test of the old un 1000, which turned back the Dow first in February 1966 and then ast year. Thirdly, there is historical swing and then consolidate. Thus, un 1!…e retrace the n forms, changing tne picture, an attack on the 1000 level 1 expectatton. There er r sons for believing that such an attack could be ultimately successf term objectives fo IN-fu e ecord high levels for the Dow. The higher longereen mentioned before in this letter, and they sttll exist. They existed, mdeed, r u the last four months' weakness, and they continue to be valid today, In other wo ,the long-term picture, as contrasted with the shorter and inter- mediate-term, was b Ish when the Dow last made a high in December, continued so through out the subsequent short-term downtrend, and remains so now that that downtrend is probabl over. This letter continues to believe that the market remams m the confmes of a long-term basic uptrend which began m October 1966, and which, despite the vicissitudes willch have oc- curred in the interim, was never seriously breached. On two occasions in the past 2 1/2 years, of course, sufflclent deterioration was ex- hibited to cause serious doubts to be ralsed. The flrst such occasion was early 1968, and the second — coincidentally, Just about a year later –was early 1969. For the past few months thlS letter has been pointmg out the serious deterioration that was evident. History bears us out, however, in the presumption that it is almost always advIsable to walt for totally de- finitive eVldence before assuming the eXlstence of a maJor downtrend; -The evidence, to our mind, never became defmitive at any ttme during the past 2 1/2 years. In summary, then, we are now in a perlOd when both short-term and the long-term trends are positive. The intermediate-term picture is still clouded.The upswing from the February lows is still not great enough to be defined as being intermediate-term m stature, and the previous mtermedlate uptrend was broken in early January. Thus, some uncertamty still exists in the picture and will be resolved only by coming events. Meanwhile, however, the policy suggested by thIS letter in recent months — that of full investment in highgrade securities — should begin to offer tangible rewards. Dow-Jones Ind. 957. 17 Dow-Jones Rails 237.36 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AW.Tamb This mnrket \ptlt'l 1'1 puhh&hll\ fOi ,nUL ,nllVI1I'Il,l' .,ud ,nrnlfl),ltlnn .In!! 110t .111 (lITt'l In ;tll 'II .1 'IUIL.lllflll tn l.u, .In) St',UItlt'l !I,,'u-.;cd 'lhe In formation \\lIl oiltmnei frnm ,ou, …. \\P 1,,11\' 10 II., 'II,tI,lt, hut w.' .I liot 1l\l.1l,lnlcl- It& .1('(UI.l'\ \\',110.101 K. C(), Int ,Iud dll.'rWrH QI l'rnnloy,', mlLY have all mh'JCHt III 01 IUl,hH,c and ,.11 th\ l.l'II,d tn hCll'ln ., .

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 09, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 09, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - May 09, 1969
View Text Version (OCR)

– Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILe TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 9, 1969 Last week's market, essentially sIdeways to firm, was normal following the sharp run- up in the Dow scored during the prior week. Although the market is at the moment mildly overbought on most short-term indicators, there is nothing to indicate that the move could not. be extended a bit further and we continue to feel that 995 constitutes a logical near-term ob- jective for the Dow. Despite the lack of action in the averages during the past week, a great many oil stock with acreage in the Arctic region,were strong. These stocks have been market leaders over the past year and, admittedly, a great many are highly speculative, especially in view of the faet that they,have advances.of better than,1000/0 from fairly recent lows. Nonetheless, for those investors who can assume-risk, we feel there is substance in the Arctic 'oil play. With amrajor.rpercentage of the world's oil reserves locked up in the Middle East and along the northern fringe of the African continent, areas subJect to no small degree of poli- tical unrest, it is understandable why in recent months especially, economic and government planners of the Western World have been turning their attentions to the NewWorld's far nort ern reaches in hopes of finding oil depOSIts of commercial size. Recent discoveries present the suggestion that these hopes may be realized even beyond earlier expectations. Last July's discovery of what probably is the largest petroleum deposit in North Amer ica by the Atlantic-Rtchfield-Humble Oil group was important not only for its size but for its DOMESTIC location. Not only did this discovery help lessen dependency on foreign oil, albeit by the very smallest degree, but It encouraged increased exploration work across Alaska, through the MacKenzie Delta and into the Canadian Arctic also has encouraged the Russians to send oil geologists into the northern reach of 0 it would seem tha things definitely are heating up in the ice-covered Geologically, it has been well known for many e S tha ctures in this area were favorable for the discovery of oil deposits. se en deposit forms almost a colla around the top of the world and sts fa 1 i it Ia!llts-have—produce-d'formations-geot -c –s Ha s structure state that folds and ' These same geologists have sl.m'iity that oil located in these northern re- gions could number in th hun It is possible th t .n barrels, much of which could be recoverabl ic areas might offer investors more exciting poten tial than does Ala – t found, although some gas has been located, and shares of companies involve n his search have unusual speculative potential. The recent dis- covery of natural gas 0 iIle Island bears adequate testimony to the excitement that could accompany any ificant oil find. When news of this was flashed to the investment community, the demand for shares pushed many stocks up between 10 and 20 in only a few hours. The Melville Island story is this. A test well at Drake Point on the island encountered a 90' gas zone at 3600 feet. An unmeasured gas flow occurred while removing the test stem. The flow of gas indicates the structure being drilled has porosity and permeability, permit- ting the possible presence of oil further down. Time alone will tell, but Lady Fortune seems already to be whetting her lips. One of the more interesting situations connected with this turn of events is one of the stocks on our Recommended List Pacific Petroleums, Ltd. (36 7/8). Pacific Pete holds about 5 million acres in Northern Canada, more than half of whtch IS located along the rtm of the Sverdrup Basin, the area of present urgency. A find of even one billton barrels of oil on PP' property would add an additional 20 in assets fo the approximate 23 in assets already be- hind each PP share. Few analysts believe these figures are not conservative. Thus, Pacific Petroleums, selling around the 37 level, IS priced below its potential asset value and offers substantial increases in asset worth should oil be discovered in commercial quantities. Phillips Petroleum, also on our Recommended Ltst, holds almost 10 millIOn shares of PP, which is worth approximately 21 per Phillips share at current markets, substantially augmenting the upside potential for Phillips. Other companies of interest active in this same area include Standard Oil of N. J. , Imperial Oil of Canada, and those smaller companies form ing the Panarctic Oils consortium. This latter group includes Bow Valley Industries, Dome Petroleum, Canadian Pacific Oil & Gas (subsidiary of CP RR), Canadian Gridoil, Barber Oil and Bankeno Mines. Dow-Jones Ind. 961. 61 Dow-Jones Rails 238.85 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb This mnrket letter IS Jlubhshed for OUI conv(nlencc and mforffiltlOn and 1, nnt .111 off1 to 9(11 Ol ,I to buv .lny '(.l'uraLws dlscussPd The tn- formntLOn wns obtamed from sources we believe to be hut …. e do !lot gu\I,mtec Its Ilccuracy. \\Rlston & Co Jnc, an.\ Its officers. dIrector! or employees may have nn Interest m or I)urchase and sell the HCUlltics rderreri to herein WN3tll I I I I I I I ! I I ……… ',lni 'ii .nl1

Download PDF