Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - April 25, 1969
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r– Walston &Co. Inc—– Mambe New York Stook Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER. 100 COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS F'- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 25, 1969 A standard forecast for the economy has, it seems, been just about arrived at with all the attendant perils that the emergence of such a forecast usually entails. The scena rio runs something like this. The first half of 1969 will retain Its momentum insofar as corporate profits are concerned, but by the second half, th( tight money policy of the Federal Reserve Bank, plus the fiscal policies of the Nixon administration, will make themselves felt,and profits will be under pressure 1ll the second half. Trymg to find a forecaster who does not believe something like the above is like trying to find one wh6 thinks the New York \1ets will win the National League pennant. The fact, of course, is that the forecast is probabl) a,-curate. What does it mean for the stock market Well, of course, stock market tops and bottoms tend to lead the economy rather than coincide with It, so a turndown in the economy starting in, say, June, may have been just what the market was trying to tell us when It started going down last December. Likewise, if the economy is going to move down, and thcn improve in 1970, a stock market rally starting in'june- or July, a month or two away, would not be unusual. In any case, we think. the best course is to own attractive values such as the following. AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS, INC. Current Price 43 1/2 Chemical stocks in general have been througl Current DIvidend Current Yield 0.20 stk. 0.5 the mill over the last year or so, reflecting an economic climate thl has caused a drag tn earn- Long-Term Debt !l4 75 Cum. Conv. Pfd, Common Stock Sales 1969 Est. 98,000,000 200,000 shs. 5,186,490 shs. 220, 000, 000 lllgS This problem conti- nues, but has b p trol of Elts al through ,'- better con pIckup in demand in s 0 R Dci line. Lower outlays , 1 also have helped improvp j Sales 1968 Ear'n, Per Sh, Per Sh. 1968 Mkt. Range 1967-1969 202,200,000 th,\ '!; i n!!5-u ook. 1\,2,45 – 210- llqpii'l ('\,ltnpal.,,'S III c,.J11'1',1 hdve rathp.r' ' 12. 2-\\ \ \; \llT.9vf.p'roduct 1111(S and SPcc,.lliz.aUon, ig'-rather 30 I49 – fu,.'Y-c \\1th111 th(' 1l1dustry, However;!t)s Just such // a special'7;ed company that attacts our attention I at present' Air llldustnal gases & S,' Inc., a leader III the productIOn and distriibution of I Il' ed e lpmellt. ' , As previously to be in construction, ed 111 these letters, the next r('ally bit; ('conomie boom is lLkf'l) , ight of thIs budding demand, tl1' outloo! for an lllcrease in steel proouctJ(ln would appear 10 be brlght, which in turn would call for greater ('onsumpt ion of I llIuustnal gases. The increaslnV- trend toward utiliatwo of r!lir og,'n g.l In We dr,v fr'ezinli f uf foods also D.ugurs well for future (armngs prospects. ,\11' lndutnal gases and related equipment account for about three-fourths of total sales, chrmicnls ami ('3ta1 sts, 17, and plant construction and services about 9. The company was piolleer in the con- struction of on -site plants, whlch eliminates transportatlOn problems and affords operating efficiencies to both producer and consumer. The complll)' also has its problems, most of wlH('lJ ('( ntpr around poor fcrhluer prices and a resultant unfavorablE' pricmg climate for nmmonia. flowever, continued increas( to industrial gas consumption 3n1 an expanding riwmicab operation suggest -hat ear1 LnG tn future w,ll 1,/' ..I II '101';1 x,'oiU rat' 1han tht typical of the pecenl past, Th(' fiscal, year ending September 30, 1060 is ( p,–ted to be the itr ,t year ,-,1 ti'L ' gam in profitability. ;lhare earmngs of between 2.45 and !2. SO a are cstimatC'd, lnm- parpd with 2,24 for the previous fiscl year, WhIle some improv(,l1wnt 10 the highly con ,p,r' vatlve a share quarl1'rly payout pate is likely to para, I 1) p ro tl' tn earl1logs, the stock shuuld not be ('onsi iered for income purposes, but primal',ly fop liS Hr, capital ,lppre- ('1 ation potential, over the longer pull. From the technical view, APD h'1S been creatlllg a chart pUern that indicates an 1ni- H;)l price objective III the mid-GO' s, followe,J by a hIgher goul readable at 88. On the downSldt! there is support iaent starting around 40, ,\ (,);'Z'\ bI'eakout on the upside would take pla('e at 50. Added to the Pric(' ApIH'(ciation section of (JUI' Re..'ommenrJed List in January, theSe shares again are recommended for purchasE' at pl'f'vailll1g IH'lel' l('vels, Dow-Jones Ind. 924. 00 Dow-Jones Rails 236,02 W, TtUl' W, LAL'BSCHER W\LS';O-;; & ro. IXC'.

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