Viewing Year: 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 06, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 06, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - July 06, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

FILE COpy Walston- Inc &- Co. \, Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 6th, 1962 Breadth-of-the-market action has improved. During the past several days, our daily breadth index has shown the sharpest advance since early 1961. This action is not yet reflected in our longer term breadth index, but such a development could take place in the relatively near future. It was the relatively unfavorable action of this index that prompted our cautious attitude toward the market last August. At that time, breadth turned down despite the fact that the averages continued to advance. This worse-than-market action, led us to counsel a policy of selling on strength, Door action the abortive Spring rallY' further strengthened our bearish fee.ing. , InApril, the market turned-a6w-n'with flie breadth index,and-)oth-indiceshave ', I moving together since that time. Before a definite change in trend is indicated, the breadth index should act better than the market averages. Last week's action is the first indication that this may occur shortly. The rally from the June 25th intra-day low of 524.55 on the Dow-Jones Industrials carried back to 586. 30 on Thursday. A one-third retracement of this relatively rapid advance wo,ud bring the average back to the 565 area. Friday's intra-day low was 571. 28. A later extension of the rally could result in an advance to the 610-620 level, which is the objective of the base pattern formed during June. After that some further backing and filling would be needed to enlarge the longer-term potential base. The 560-550 range should now be a solid long-term resistance area. From here on the action of individual. issu-es should be more important than the action of the various averages. Last week this letter mentioned a number of possible candidates on our recommended list as purchases on weakness. We are contin uing this review with four more securities which appear Woolworth (68), a favorite of this letter for i a a price less then the market value of the 52.7 interest in its y. s, in effect, the entire U. S. operation and the highly profitable Wes,\ xican and Canadian subsidiaries are-being – 0-dividendprovides a-fair- – yield,and expansion into diSCOUntinms \), holds promi.se. \0J 0 million expansion program U. S. ,lywood (43) double sales since 1954 but the earn- ings record has been atrprice structure. Thus, the fact that earn- ings recovered . e . e year ended April, 1962, from a depressed 2.55 in the prio si cant, in that U. S. Jlywood was able to show good results despite low ice 1ch prevailed during most of the period. Any future imp- rovement in the buil market andlor strengthening of products prices could increase earnings substantia y,and the company is now being appraised at a conservative mult- iple of its 1961-1962 showing. Burroughs (37) is well along the road to recovery, but the present price appears conservative when viewed against the ultimate potential. Heavy development costs in recent years reduced earnings to 97 per share in 1958, from which level they have trended steadily upward to an estimated 1. 80-2.00 for 1962. That even greater increases are possible, however, is evidenced by the fact that net income from for- eign subsidiaries in 1961 '\liIls 11. 1 million while reported total net income was only 10.5 million. Thus, the domestic operation, which accounts for the major portion of sales, was still showing a los.. of this lo,ss to a prof!!- in years obviously creates highly favorable earnings prospects. Cn the face of it, the earnings of lVIurphy Corporation (16) have held in a narrow range between a 1.17 and 1. 36 per share since 1956. A glance at the cash flow, normally the most important measure of an oil company's growth, however, tells a somewhat different story. Cash earnings have increased in every year since 1955 and in 1961 were approximately 3. 37 per share. The company has one of the better records in the industry insofar as oil and gas exploration is concerned,and there is little reason to expect that the growth in cash flow will not continue. Thus, the current price which marks the stock at only five-times 1961 cash earnings, appears highly con- servative. Dow-Jones Ind. 576.17 Bow JUlIeS Rails – 4e ThiS market Jetter ie not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to OrEDMUI\TD W. TABELL OVALS I or fl sohcil;ntlOn to buy any secl,lTlbes rc err ere'n' e l Jrmntlon contamed herein is not gunranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof lS not, and under no nl'cumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- tIon by Walston & Co , Ine All expreSSIOns of oplmon are subJect to change WIthout notlCC. Walston & Co, Inc.' and Offlcers, Directors, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, sell and may have an Interest m the secUrlUec mentIOned hercm ThiS market letter lS mtended and presellted merely as gencral, Informal commentary on day to day m\rket news anq not as a complete 'lnalYSlS Additional1nformatlOn With respcct to allY securities referred to herem be furmshcd upon rCiucst. JOl

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 13, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 13, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - July 13, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc – – – – – FLE COpy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 13th, 1962 The market rally continued for most of last week with the Dow-Jones Industrials reaching an intra-day high of 599.(J2on Tuesday. Breadth action was unusually good with better than 1, 000 advances chalked up in Tuesday's session. Through Thursday, the average had advanced some 14 in twelve trading days, and at this week's high, had recovered about a third of the loss since the April high when the most precipitous portion of the decline began. As this letter has previously .pointed out;'-aboutzthe -'0 – – ' late last month is 615-630. From a short-term point of view, therefore, it would seem prudent to utilize rallies for the sale of unfavorably-situated issues, later using the proceeds to purchase attractive equities on weakness. en a longer term basis, however, a number of encouraging signs continue to accumulate. The recent reduction in margin requirements was a rather 'obvious response to the sharp drop in the use of stock market credit and the apparent cooling of the speculative fever that raged in 1960 and 1961. It is interesting to note, however, that the Federal Reserve Board, inadvertent- ly or otherwise, has had a rather good record of predicting market turns. ThrEe times since 1949 margins have been reduced to 50, and each of these thrEe' reductions took place within three to six months of a major stock market upturn. It will be interesting 'to see whether this occurs again. (\' 0 Of deeper significance is the number of patterns that are beginning to develop in many industrial groups. and er theorists have ,pointesl out and.third being downward movements with an een. Thus the table below, which shows the action of DO; Average an.. Standard & ryoor's International Oil Index since 5 0\ 1956-1957 High W JiA 524.37 S& -oJ Oil Index 96.78 1957 Low 416.15 72.46 1959 High 68B.2l 88.00 1960 Low 564.23….. 70.20 1961 High 741. 30 88. 54 1962 Low 524.55 79.83 i;ven a casual glance at the above figures will show an obvious divergence. The Dow made successive new highs in 1956-1957, 1959 and 1961. In addition, the 1960 low was above the 1957 low, after which, in 1962, the 1960 low was exceeded. By contrast, the Oil Index failed to reach a new peak in 1959 and barely exceeded its 1959 level in 1960. And, although the 1960 low was, unlike that of the DOW, below its previous bottom, the index did not even approach a new low this year. The conc1usions'are inescapable. The Dow reach-ed its \j-ull-market p-eak but this peak had been achieved four years earlier by the Gils. These issues, moreover, probably completed their bear-market cycle in 1960 while the Industrials, in all probability, have two further phases to complete. I J, I i I' I,''I, Such action strongly indicates that the oils are likely to outperform the general market over the next few years. Other groups, including Aerospace, Coal, Natural 'I ;as ipelines and Textile have similar patterns and, in these industries, many stocks which are attractive candidates for purchase on weakness will be found. ether groups such as Copper, lViachine Tools, and Containers, although the patterns are not strictly similar, also appear interesting. ilAd, and lHlder3&Wircul;ances IS to be construed as. an ffer to sell or a 50hCltation to .,formation nol K6aranteed as or and the furnlehmR' thereof IS not, o.nd under coAstl!uliJ!Ji.1i).RIJopresento.- All cxbQSiilO11J f!f opinIon are euhJcct to change ,,!Ithout notice '\Yaiston & ChrUlCI' sw.qtpq1ders and sell o.n interest m the securitIes mentIOned herem ThiS market general. on day to day market news amJ not as a complete Additional mformatlOn With respect to any eecurltu!s rcferrc to herein furmshed upon request.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 20, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 20, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - July 20, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. flLtcOPy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 20, 1962 At the week's intra-day low of 568.02, the Dow-Jones Industrials had lost a little over 400/0 of the advance from the June low of 524. 55 to the recent high of 599.02. 'ur breadth index has shown better action during the past several weeks than any time since early 1961. During the past week it has backed down moderately from its high. Ability of the breadth index to reach a new high above last week would indicate a further rally in the Dow-Jones Industrials to the 620-650 level. By every tenet of what has, over the past few years, passed as security analysis there is no reason to purchase .textile stocks. Industrygrowth has, since \!\forld 'lIar II, been negligible;. with production during the 1950is rising at an annual rate of around 20/0 vs. a rise of 30/0 for GNP. Earnings growth for major companies in the fielc has been nonexistent, and, in most cases, 1961 earnings figures were at a mid-point between 1949-51 highs and 1954-55 lows. rofit margins for the textile group have been among the lowest for any major industry over the past decade. All of this has been re- flected in the performance of the stocks. At the moment, Standard & Door's index of seven textile weavers is selling considerably under its 1951 high. Yet despite the myriad of surface reasons that can be advanced for ignoring the .textile industry completely, the group has, since the latter part of 1960, acted consider- ably better than the general market. The group is one of the few mentioned last week that has managed to hold above its 1960 lows on the recent break, and many stocks in the industry, such as American Viscose, Beaunit \/fills, Burlington Industries, Collins & Aikman, Reeves Brothers and J. J. Stevens are on our recommended list. In almost every case throughout the industry, technical patterns appear to indicate substantially higher levels over the long term. Since this is the case, at the industry, in- volving something more than a mere measurementtear i g is indicated. The overall lack of sales growth in the ar so can be explained very the .most of his in- . creased diSposable-iticomeon hardiOdS a a iance ther than on clothing and other textile-using items. It is extremel .rend will continue at the same pace, and it is logical to more closely to approximate growth in disposable income thJ;l-n ha II the past. The other n n industry's record is the wide swings in proft margins and ear.;\. en place. These are normally thought to be the' product of a enomenon called the textile cycle. Actually, a close look at the figures prbv at sales fluctuations in textiles are extremely moderate and that textile producti ends to decrease less in recessions than does industrial product- ion. 1f.'hat has varied widely over the past few years is textile prices, and, in an industr already operating on a low profit margin, price cutting can be close to disastrous. The reasons for price cutting must, in turn, be examined. Textiles, more than any other industry, have been plagued with over-capacity — much of this over-capacity obsolete and high-cost, but there is some evidence that this situation has mitigated of late. Industry estimates place excess facilities at 150/0 in mid-1961, down from 300/0 as late as 1956. It is also an undeniable fact that concentration of output in the hands of major producers has increased markedly in recent years, especially in the stronger and more profitable items, thus giving the industry a greater measure of price control than it has had heretofore. – But, despite the progress that has been made, current prices mark most stocks at around or less than ten times expected 1962 earnings, just as if they were still sub- ject to the cyclical vagaries which were their lot in the decade of the 1950's. Yields, in most cases, are generous and book values in many companies exceed the market prices of the common eqdty. That textiles have become a rapid-growth industry, or that they are now recession-proof, is not to be claimed. It can, however, be argued that present prices hardly reflect recognition of the improvements that have taken place and that re- presentative textile stocks deserve a place in the long-term investor's portfolio. Dow -Jones Ind. 577. 18 Dow-Jones Rails 123.05 ANTEONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. market letter is not, and under no circumstances IS to be as, nn ficr to sell or a solICitation to buy any secUritIes referred to herem The mCormatton contamoo herem is not as to accuracy or completeness and the (urmshml thereof not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, a representn.- twn by Walston & Co , Inc All expressions of oplOwn are subcct to change Without notIce. Wnlston & Co., Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest 10 the secUritieS ment.lOned herein ThiS letter IS Intended and pr,csented merely as a gencrnl, Informal commentary on dny to day market news Ind not ns a complete analYllIR AdditIOnal InformntlOn With respect to any securities rderred to herem Will be furnished upon r e q u C I I L ' WI\' 30) –

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 27, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 27, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - July 27, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

r — –;;iiO..—–…..—.- … Walston &Co . lnc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CKiCAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 27, 1962 Since May 27th, the Dow-Jones Industrial average has fluctuated in a hundred- point area between 625 and 525. Actually, most of the time has been spent in a much nar rower range. For the past forty-three trading days, including May 27th, the average has sold below 550 during only five trading days and above 600 during only ten trading days. For the remaining twenty-eight trading days, or almost two-thirds of the time, the intra- day range has been between 550 and 600. During this two-month period, the averages and a sizable number of individual issues have, from a technical viewpoint, formed fairly substantial potential base patterns. The Dow-Jones Industrials, 'for example, have built a possible base centering around the 570-575 area with'a possible'upside potential-of- 620 to 650.1'Technically, such an objective would be signalled by the 'ability of the aver- age to reach 600. The early July intra-day high was 599.02. Such an objective would also be signalled by the ability of the breadth index to better its early July high. Our various breadth have shown definitely improving June. While no positive signals of a action of an In';!''' LUIUll to the averages. For example, if the average declined 10/0 and an individual stock de- clined only 50/0, that stock is showing above-average action or good relative strength des- pite the fact that it has declined. Conversely, if the average advanced 100/0, and an indi- vidual stock advanced only 50/0, the relative strength of the individual stock is poorlAno- ther, and simpler, approach is to select the stocks or that have held above a previous low despite the fact that the territory., For the Dow-Jones Industrial average ,1960, and then advanced to 741. 30 in November of 19 1. broken below the 1960 low to reach 524. 55. The hlyeJleI,d,aboye their i9601ows have, therefore, action and their relative strength is good despite the fact in price. There is that these issues aretrmenedetoinrg b ages. Some of the m(ll'jiVfinportarlt category are listed MjlhclbeLle'HJ.Y Aerospace Automobile Auto Trucks Banks-Outside N. Y. Beverage -Distillers Beverage- Soft Drinks Coal Containers-Metal & Glass Fertilizers Finance Companies Fire Insurance Food Gold Mining Machine Tools Machinery-Construction Machinery-Oil Well Machinery-Steam Generating Mining and Smelting Natural Gas Office Equipment Oil Railroad Equipment Rayon Retail Stores Shipbuilding Shipping Soaps Textiles Tobaccos -Utilities The oils have shown particularly good technical action.This group average reach- ed its high in June, 1957 and compl eted a three-wave downtrend three years later in 1960. Since that time the group average has been in a slow uptrend. It has not only held above the 1960 low but also above its October, 1961 low. Among the oils and associated companies in our recommended ,list are Gulf Oil (35), Kern County Land (70), Louisiana Land (65), J. Ray McDermott (23), Murphy Corp. (16), Phillips Petroleum '(46) and Royal Dutch (38). EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 585.00 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 121. 83 Thie market letter is not. and under no CIrcumstances is to be COtlBtrued as, an ofter to sell or a solicitation to buy any securttie!l referred to herein. The Information contained herein is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnishmg thereof 18 not, and under no cireumstances is to be construed as, a representa- tion by Walston & Co, Inc. AU of opimon are subject to ehange without notiee. Walston & Co., Ine, and Offieel'8, Dlreetol'8, Stoekbolders and Employees thereof, purebnse, sell and may have an mterest In the securities mentioned herein This market letter is mtended and presented merely as a general, informal eommentary on day to day market news an4 not as a eomplete analysts Additional Information with regpeet to any securities referred to berein will be furnished uJ))n request. WN 301 tl

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 03, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 03, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - August 03, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

/ . — I fiLE COpy Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-YCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER August 3, 1962 After reaching a new high of 601. 15 early in the week, the Dow-Jones Industrial average failed to follow through, and our breadth index mirrored this action, also fail- ing to better its early July high. A further attempt at an upside penetration by the Indus- trials and! or the breadth index, is to be expected in the future. Far more important than guessing what the market is going to do, however, is being prepared to take prOp2r steps whatever it does. Basically, this letter continues to feel that the 650-550 range will contain the market over the near future. Accordingly, we would advisesale of ifisues on to th, 600-650 area, and pur- chase of stocks which appear to be of sound value, on weakness into the 600-550 range. Accelerated depreciation schedules have already been enacted and, although an immediate tax cut remains a question mark, the possibilities remain good for some futuI'E tax reform. These measures will have an appreciable effect on company earnings and the effect will vary with each individual company. It will necessitate a much closer look at cash flow or cash earnings. Cash flow consists of net earnings plus depreciation. In re- cent years, cash flow earnings have been increasing at a greater rate than reported earn- nings. In the four-year period between 1947 and 1950, cash flow earnings on the Dow- Jones Industrial average were about 340/0 above reported earnings. In the most recent four-year period between 1958 and 1961 cash flow earnings averaged 750/0 above reported In 1950, the earnings on the Dow-Jones Industrial average were 30.70. Eleven years later, in 1961, reported earnings were 31. 83 or an increase of 3.60/0. Cash flow earnings on the Dow-Jones Industrials, however, increased from 40.85 in 1950 to.57.25 in 1961 for an increase of almost 400/0. It is, of course, arguable that an increase in necessary. The main object of a depreCiation allowance is to allow !or 0'(' quipment as it wears out, and it is certainly true that in most tak reater replacement a ghTen level of earnings the sharp lncrease ln cash flow as th .. rmngs over tile past ten – years is rather dramatic. Standard & Poor's vWin eDe, ng advertisement in some of last Sun- day's newspapers relative cash flow and the effect of accelerated de- preciation and pOSSilel ed tit5ns on earnings and dividends. As an example, a hypothetical co ' e 5 lllion before taxes and depreciation. It s deprecia- tion, figuring a 0 years, was 50 million. Assuming a capitalization of ten million r Led net ea rnings were 4.80 and cash flow earnings were 9.80 under the pres 20/0 corporate tax rate. With the rec ntly accelerated depreciation, the company uses a twelve-year basis for depreciation instead of fifteen years. The result would be a lowering of reported earnings to 4.32 a share, or On the other hand, cash flow earnings WJ uld be 10.82 or an increase of If there is a reduction in the corporate tax rate from 520/0 to 470/0, the effect could be quite material. In that event, reported earnings WJ uld be 4. 77 a share or about the same as the present 4. 80, but cash flow earnings would increase from 9.80 to 10.77 a share. If, in addition, the pending Incentive Credit of a 70/0 tax write-off on the cost of new equipment were enacted, it would add another a share to cash flow earnings. Cash flow earnings are important as far as dividends.are concerned. In the pertod between 1948 and 1961, the dividend payout on the reported earnings of American corporations varied over a wide range between 350/0 and 660/0. The payout rate on cash earnings, however, was very steady during this same period. It varied only from 270/0 to 330/0. As- suming a 300/0 dividend payout of cash earnings on the hypothetical company mentioned above, and no change in earnings before taxes and depreciation, the result would be a 2.94 dividend on the present 9.80 a share cash earnings, a 3.09 dividend under the new depreciation schedule, and a 3.51 dividend if the corporate tax rate is reduced to 470/0. As mentioned above, the results will vary with each company. Some companies will in reported earnings and little savings in depreciation, while other com- pames will show lower reported earnings but better cash flow and have better dividend coverage. Dow-Jones Ind. 596. 38 EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails 122.26 WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is not, and under no circumstances 18 to be eonstnIed 811, an offer to Bell or a soliCitation to buy any securities referred to herein. The information contained herein 18 not guarAnteed 8.11 to accuracy or completeness and the furnlahmg thereof IS not, and under no drcumstanees is to be construed M, 0. rePresentar tlOn by Walston & Co., Inc. All expressions of opinion are subJect to change without notice Walston & Co. Ine. and Direetors, Stoekholdere atld Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an interest in the securitl8 mentioned herein. Thie market letter is intended a.nd presented merely &8 8. general. informal commentary on day to day market news anq. not as a complete anab'lIls. Additional mformatlon With respect to any seeurltles referred to herein will be furnished request. . WN 301 – …… – ' -C 0-

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 10, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 10, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - August 10, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &CO, —-Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange . COpy NEW YORK ' SAN fRANCISCO LOS ANGELES ' PHILADELPHIA ' CH.lCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 10, 1962 A superficial observation of the market for the past week would inaicate that it was a trendless affair with little or nothing happening. This is certainly true of the act- ion of the various averages. If, as we believe, the market is in the process of forming a long-term accumulation base, any attempt to forecast the shorter-term fluctuations of the averages is a rather futile and meaningless endeavor. However, if you look below the surface of general market action and observe the price patterns of 1500 individual stocks, you will find that lots of things are happening. Some stocks have had little or no rally from the lows'of May andJune-and some are still miJ.jdng.new 10ws.Ontheother.,ha.nd, many issues have rallied sharply and some are close to their old highs. Even in theshort- period of a little over two months, a sizable number of issues have formed substantial base pa tterns The present seemingly dull market presents a marvelous opportunity for the investor to upgrade his portfolio while taking advantage of tax saving sales. The backing and filling and temporary fits of optimism and pessimism are the necessary ingredients of forming a base. It is from such patterns that the bull markets of the future are made. One of the groups tha t appears to be in the process of forming a potential base is the savings and loan issues. Just as a bull market eagerly grasps and inflates every minuscule item of good news, a bear market recognizes only unfavorable developments., and often fails to recognize positive factors within a company or industry. The S & L's are a case in point. The growth shown by these associations over the past few years is, by every j standard, astounding. Most companies in the field have doubled earnings in the past five years, and earnings increases of 500 over the same smaller companies. No one familiar with Rnusual among the c io lls..'!9t Ca ifornia and the Western states could fail to doubt that the future . cre savings and in- . at pnces whlCh dIscount theIr 1961 higns jor 0 . – – now , ,- Unfavorable news and p the savings and loans companies .in recent months. First and fore 0 i t factor. To date, the S & L's by virtue of a law which I substantial bad debt reserve, have been virtually free from ta en't, no one is sure just what sort of tax reform bill will emerge 0 t e s' al labyrinth, but it is quite certain that some tax will be imposed 0 g n an earnings. Although imposition of the full 52 corpo- 'rat;'tax is a possibi ty, doubtful that this will take place, and an effective tax rate of betw.een 20 and 3 s considered most likely. Other problems which have plagued ,the Associations inc ude increased competition from commercial banks, the high cost of attracting savings; which has, of necessity, put pressure on profit margins, a slightly increased forec1usure rate, burgeoning administrative costs and a temporary slowdown in housing starts. – Yet how low must the market go before these negative factors are discounted The average S & L stock is now available at ten times untaxed 1961 earnings and, in rna cases, less than that multiple of estimated 1962 results. Assuming the most likely tax action, and adjusting 1961 earnings therefor, multiples would rise to around 15 and allow ing for the unlikely imposition of the full corporate tax rate, PiE ratios would be some- where in the low tomiddle 20 'so This, let usrecall; is for an indblstry which has been able to increase earnings, on the by some one-third annually over the past five years. Undoubtedly, due to the factors mentioned above, rowth may slow down, but it is hardly likely that the earnings curve Will flatten out enougll to justify present multiples That some investors have come to recognize this fact is emphasized by the sub- stantial potential bases which most savings and loans companies have formed in the past few months. Great Western Financial (19), suggested for sale by this letter last year at 47 3/4, has an upsIde oOJecnve, from a techmcal viewpoint, of 35 if 25 is reached. Relurchase is recommended. LikeWIse recommended is First Charter Financial (31), in WhICh acceptance of profits was recommended a year ago at 51 1/ 2, Ablutyof thIS issue to.reac 39 would, technically, indicate a possible 47. Other savings and loans with attractive po- tential patterns include California Financial, Financial Federation, Gibraltar FinanCIal, Trans-World Financial and United Financial. Dow-Jones Ind. 592. 32 .. JeRQ8 Ra;i.;ls 119 54 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIB market letter is not., and under no circumstances 15 to be eonstrued as. an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any aecurities referred to herein. The information contained herem is not guaranteed 8.B to accuracy or completeness and the furnishlnR' thereof is not, and under no circumstances le to be construed as. a representa tlon by Walston &; Co. Inc. All expressions of OPinion are subJect to change without notice. Walston & Co. Inc. and Officers. Directors. Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase. sell and may have an Interest in the securities mentIoned herein This market letter IB intended and presented merely as a general. informal commenta.ry on day to day market neW!! and not as a complete analYBIB. Additional mformatlon with respect to any Becurities referred to herein wUl be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' WN 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 17, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 17, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - August 17, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

FILE COpy Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH.lCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 17. 1962 The market moved above the early July resistance level at 600 to reach an intra-day high of 611.15 () on the Dow-Jones Industrials. As mentioned in recent letters. the up- potential is the 620-650 range. So far. our breadth index has failed to confirm the lu,lsi.de breakout in the averages but it is now very near its early July high. The pattern Imal'I71C1UaLl stocks is quite varied with some issues showing fairly substantial upside potenlcU;) and others quite negative. Much more important than the nearer-term action of the market is the longer-term T.he stock ,market re.ached a major.top .in.November u.r.la Average sold at an intra-day high of 741.30. This major top was accompanied a historically high price to earnings ratios and historically low yields. It was also by fantastic overspeculation in glamour stocks and new issues of third and grade companies. The sequel to the overvalued market of 1961 was a decline of 290/0 to a low of 524.55 in The decline was greater than any decline since 1937. From a technical viewpoint. e averages and many individual stocks reached the maximum downside objectives out- Ilinled by the 1961-1962 tops. The speculative excesses in glamour stocks and new issues IWf'rl largely liquidated as were many unsound credit situations. There probably will con- I'lilue to be occasional repercussions from the unsound overspeculations of 1961 but the IHeU'l' appears to have been accomplished. It is probable that the June low was a or bottom. Obviously. after a drastic decline that corrected the speculative excesses of recent the market is not going to make the same mistake and immediately become over- again. Any important rise in market values will hO by a sub- ItantiaLl rise in earnings and that does not appear to in c e irnmediate It may be quite some time before the 1961 ed must be remember- tlfffi2-that the high was reached only nine months 't.hWlPre . the e'out-it took two years after 1956 top for the industrial . erritoryand it was a year and a after the 1959 top before t e ew high. Going back to the 1946 toP. was well over three years 0 reached. In many ways. from a technical 0t e t' icates the possibility of forming a pattern simi- to 1946-1949 a 0 t d may be shorter. After reaching a high of 213 in pril of 1946. the a e e ed 250/0 to reach a new low of 160 in October of the same This low held r three years while the average backed and filled in a trading between 160 and From a technical viewpoint. the bases formed during this U..'U1 the foundation or the long-term advance that started from the 1949 lows. While it naturally would be quite foolhardy to assume that the present market pattern be exactly like 1946-1949. the broad outline may be quite similar even though the ec(m-i IUl1l1; background is entirely different. A trading area similar to 1946-1949 would result in trading area between 525 and 640 in the present market. While this is a broad pattern the general market the action of individual issues will be quite different. Just as in 6-1949. some individual issues will reach new highs and others will reach new lows des ite the fact that the averages remain in a trading area. Probably. as a starting point for selecting longer-term holdings. it would be wise to a good look at the issues that did not their 1960 lows in the recent.decline the fact that the June low in the Industrial Average was 525 as compared to 565 in 1 sually. a good fundamental reason is behind this favorable relative strength action. It is our belief that the trading area of next two or three years will result in the foun- I',,UH for a broad long-term advance. Proper selection of issues could result in purch- s at low levels that may not be seen again in an investment lifetime. Dow-Jones Ind. – 610.02 Dow -Jones Rails – 121.44 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. ,INC. Thill market letter 111 not and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, an ot'fe!;' to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities referred to herein The Information contained herem 111 not as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof 18 not, a.nd under no clreumstanees 18 to be construed M. a represent&.- t by WAlston & Co Inc All expressIOns of opmion are subJect to change wlthout notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and thereof sell And may have an mterest in the securitIes mentIOned herein This market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, mformal commentM-y on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analySIS Additional informatlon With respect to any securities referred to herein furnished upon requeat.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 24, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 24, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - August 24, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

FILE COP' Walston &Co. I nc. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 24, 1962 At the week's intra-day high of 622.02, the Dow-Jones Industrials reached the lower part of our 620-650 upside objective. Some consolidation is to be expected, but the technical pattern gives no indication of any great vulnerability at the moment The breadth index has confirmed the rise in the averages by also moving above the early July high. Volume indications are favorable and it would appear that the selective advance could COil tinue to the upper portion of the 620-650 area. Patterns of individual issues are quite di- verse, but most stocks that have formed potential base patterns since May have not yet Iached their have been formed as .. . ' In the three months since May, quite a-few individual issues have built up size- able potential base patterns. In some cases these base areas have been penetrated on the upside and, from a technical viewpoint, indicate higher levels over the intermediate term. Air Products & Chemical (59) is an example of this type of technical action. The company speCializes in cryogenics (the low temperature proceSSing of gases and liquids). Its growth rate has been well above average. The stock, listed on the New York Stock Ex- change, reached a high of 861/2 in 1961. The downside implication of the 1961-1962 top was, from a technical viewpoint, a decline to the 46-40 level. A low of 41 1/4 was reach- ed in May and a sizable base area was formed in the 42-55 range and recently penetrated on the upside. Earnings for the fiscal year ending September 30th are estimated at about 3.00 a share compared to 2.47 in the 1961 period. Cash flow earnings for the 1962 fis- cal period are estimated at over 6.00 a share. Dividend payments are nominal at annually, plus a 2 stock dividend in March, 1962. The stock is recommended for longterm growth. Alside, Inc. (27) also has built up a sizable potel is the leading factor in the aluminum siding industry and 0 pattern. The company one-third of the domestic market A recently organized u s diar lside Homes Corporation, is scheduled to begin production of an alumi mass produced home 'in the laterpartJf'this yea'l'The -11 – … downside objective of the reached in May. A potential base ar work. A low of 20 was e iJe; ed in the 20-28 area. An upside pene tration of this area nA t' e technical point of view. The stock is speculative and is 0 in e non to its present earnings. Earnings for the fiscal year Class B common tl.' ..1 , were 81 on the combined Common stock and 1 or the nine months ended June 30th, 1962 were compared to in\)611 R O. There are 503,430 shares of common stock listed on the New York Stock Exch and 1, 364,480 shares of Class B Common stock, unlisted. The Class B stock is cIo ely held and convertible into common. The stock is recommended as a long-term growth speculation. Universal Oil Products (34 3/4) has also built up a sizable potential base pattern in the past three months. The company is engaged in research and development in the petroleum, petrochemical and chemical fields. Royalties, engineering and services ac- count for over 600/0 of gross profits with the remainder from product sales and construct- ion. Reported earnings for 1962 are not expected to show much change from the 1. 58 re- ported for 1961 because of a strike early in 1962, and other reasons, but earnings are expected to rise sharply in 1963. Cash flow earnings are substantially above reported torearnings. The stock,reached a I!igh of 691/2 in 1961. The 1961-1962 indicatei, from a technical' viewpoint, a decline to 27. The May-June low was only 30 1 4, but there is a strong support level at 30-25. Since June, the stock has held in the 31-37 range. Purchase is recommended for long-term growth. Three stocks already on our recommended list have also built up substantial potential base patterns from a technical viewpoint. Burroughs (38 7/8), declined from a high of 523/8 to a low of 325/8. A substantial base was formed in the 33-39 range. This has been penetrated on the upside. Despite slow recent action, the technical pattern suggests higher levels. Cluett Peabody (39 1/2), which declined from 53 to 32, also has built up a substantial potential base in the 32-42 range as has J. Ray McDermott (237/8) in the 20- 25 area. EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 613.74 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 124. 34 ———————————————————–.. —Thill market letter is not, and under no circumstances III to be construed 1lS, an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities referred to herein. The Ini . lon contained herein 111 not guaranteed u. to accuracy or completeness and the furnishmg thereof is not, and under no ill to be.conlltrued all, a reprea…ta- tlon by Walston & Co, Inc. All expressions of opinion are subJect to c;hange without notice. Walston &.Co, Inc., and OffiCers; Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purehasc, sell and may have an mOOrest in the securities mentioned herem This market letter ie mtended and presented mer!!ly as a general, mformal commentary on day to day market news anlj not as a complete analYlliB. Additional mformatlon with respect to any securities referred to herein will be furnishl!d UK)n request. WN 301 L

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 31, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 31, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - August 31, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

— FILE COpy Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-UCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER August 31, 1962 After reachmg the lower part of our projected advance to the 620-650 level at last week's high of 622.02, the Dow-Jones Industrials declined to an intra-day low of 598.81. This is normal technical action. The decline was halted at the upper part of the 600-580 support level. Volume dropped off during the selling period. Thursday's trading volume was the smallest in over three months The breadth indices showed above aver- age action during the week. Friday's advance of 6. 86 points retraced a good part of the 11. 42 -point decline of the first four days of the week. I would expect the advance to go on to the upper part of the 620-650 area. Friday's rally was led by the savings and loan issues;Tliis gFOup wasrec6mmendtmih-'ouy-Ietter of – The shares of the paper companies have been showing below-average price action since 1956. Prior to that time, the papers had been among the leaders of the rise from the 1949 lows. After the stodgy price performance of this group over the past six years, it is difficult to realize that International Paper, after adjusting for stock dividends rose from a 1949 low of 3 1/4 to a 1956 high of 42, or an advance of over 12000/0 as compared to the 350/0 trading area in which the stock has held since 1956. The reason for the poor performance of the paper stocks in recent years is not difficult to find Since 1955, the industry has increased capacity at the rate of about 50/0 a year while sales have advanced only about 30/0 a year. This has resulted in overcapacity and price cutting and lowered profits despite increased sales. Figures from the American Paper & Pulp Association indicate that capacity in 1962 will be up only 2. 40/0 from 1961. Present plans call for a rise of 1. 60/0 in 1963 and 1. 30/0 over 1963 in 1964. If production I and consumption continue to increase at the rate of the past several years, the gap bet- I ween capacity and production will gradually be closed price conditions will be improved This has already been reflected in imp vi ni9gs for the first half of 1962. In most cases, the paper stocks are w r ar trading areas they have occupied for SlX years. Even a rise to p t e six-year level would result in sizable percentage . I . , ing issues covering vanous segmen Sel d i s appear to be at a buying -inc .- while you waTt.- Thefollow-' er J6dUstry and related fields are recom- .– , mended. Crown Zellerbach e West Coast paper company I troubles k 1962 earmngs somewhat, but estimates are around 2.50 pe a , and 1961. The yiel s -4 30/0 to 2 33 in 1961 The stock sold above 60 in 1956 Dominion Ta't- emical (16 1/ 2) is one of Canada's ten largest companies. While not entlrely company, 640/0 of sales are pulp and paper with 200/0 in building materials and 160/0 in chemicals Earnings for 1962 are estimated at 1. 50 compared with 1. 29 in 1961 Yield is 4.40/0 before Canadian withholding tax. The stock is llsted on the American Stock Exchange. Great Northern Paper (37 1/2) is the largest independent newsprint company in the U. S. Owns over two million acres of tlmberlands. Also is large producer of specialty papers which are an increasing percentage of sales. Reported earnings are around the 3.00 per share level, but cash flow is over 9 a share. The company pays 1 00 to yield 2.70/0. The stock sold at a high of 108 1/2 in 1956. Rayonier (18 3/4) is the world's leading producer of highly purifled pulps used in the manufacture of textile fibers, tire cord, cellophane and photo film Additimal products are paper pulps, fine papers and lumber Earnings for the first half of 1962 were a share compared to 62' in the 1961 period The sto'ck yields 4.20/0 on the 80 annual divi- dend 30/0 stock dividends were paid in 1959,1960 and 1961. Foreign sales are now about 400/0 of volume and should increase as world-wide demand for purified pulps is expected to widen. Union Bag-Camp Paper (36 1/8) is the result of merger in 1956 of Union Bag & Paper and the Camp Mfg. Co. The FTC has brought suit against the company to break up this merger. Final outcome of this suit 1S uncertain. Earnings of the company have held up relatively well compared to other paper companies. Estimated earnings of 2. 60 for 1962 would be the best since 1956. The yield on 1. 50 dividend is 4.20/0 Dow-Jones Ind. 609. 18 Dow-Jones Rc Us 123.75 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is not, and under no circumstances 15 to be construed as, an offer to sell or n lIolicltation to buy any seeurities referred to herein The information contnmcd herein 18 not guaranteed lLB to accuracy or completeness and the furmshlng thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as, a representa tion by Walston & Co, Inc All expressIons of opimon are subJect to change without notice. Vfalston & Co, Inc, and Offlcera, Dlretora, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest In tne securities mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a InOIml\! commentary on day to day market news ang not as a complete analYSI!; Additional Information With respect to any securities referred to herem furDlshed up()n request.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 07, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 07, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - September 07, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc. — Members New York Stock Exchange FILE COpy NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 7, 1962 The Dow-Jones Industrials sold off in the early part of last week before a rally late Thursday reversed the trend. The low reached was 594.08 on Thursday. \At the moment, it is rather difficult to get too pessimistic on the state of the general market. The possibility always remains that the high of 622.02 reached in Aug- ust may be the ultimate high for the post-bear-market rally. However, before a decline of any magnitude is indicated, a distributional top will have to form at around current levels – say, between 590 and 620. No distribution of this nature has as yet taken place it iS,best to regard .the c01.structively.LIndivid1!al patterns would still indicate that a-rise to the 630 650-ievei is the of -0 possibility. Meanwhile, portfolio transactions should concentrate on an attempt to upgrade accounts and switch out of less favorably situated stocks. In this connection, a number of securities which continue on our recommended list appear attractive for various purposes For conservative accounts interested in income and moderate growth, Mesabi Trust llU2;J which provides a current yield of 4.10/0, seems interesting. This letter originally recom- mended its predecessor stock, the Mesabi Iron Company, at considerably lower levels as a speculation on eventual dissolution of the company and formation of a royalty trust. Now that this change has taken place, the character of the security has completely changed, and it becomes a highgrade income stock with fair long-term appreciation possibilities. Currently, the holder of the trust certificates owns a beneficial interest in deposits of magnetic taccnite, which are being mined by Reserve Mining Company (jointly owned by Armco and Republic Steel). The sole income of the trust is royalty payments by Rese rYe on a per-ton basis with various escalation clauses. The makes a de- cline in output, despite the low steel operating rate'(iWllik l, capacity will be increased over the next few years so that the of 47 could be almost doubled in the late 1960's. The – 'so-that r a depletion allowance be u.;- (43), now selling near the turns a yield of close to 50/0, d ding range The 2 00 dividend reflnally to be translating sales growth (revenues dub e year ended Apri 6 n arnings improvement Earnings in the fiscal ra.. share vs 2.46, and the July 1962 quarter was ahead of the like 1 rlOd' ull-year earnings for the year to end next April are ex- pected to approximat to 4.50 This growth has been accomplished largely by in- creasing sales of s ty products such as Weldwood panelling and other branded mer- chandise carrying higher profit margins than raw plywood, which accounts for about 400/. of sales and has been the subJect of chaotic industry pricing. One such product announced this week is a pre-fabricated wood siding covered with a permanent plastic film manufac- tured by DuPont. This film provides a permanent color without the necessity for painting. Capital and sales promotion outlays in order to penetrate the lucrative consumer market have been high in recent years, but have been financed by heavy cash flow which ran to 6 96 a share in 1961 After holding in the 20-24 range for most of the Summer, J Ray McDermott (25) broke out on the upside this week to reach a high of 26 5/8. ThiS action would appear to reflect the record backlog oLconstruction contracts which should maintain the compap.y's earnings at around or better than the 2. 78 earned in the year ended March 31,1962. McDermott is the leading factor in the construction of fixed offshore drilling platforms, and the recent awarding of a record number of leases for the offshore area assures a continued high level of activity for the company. A 70 million Persian Gulf contract will also stimulate 1962-1963 revenues The savings and loan tax situatlOn is still not certain. The Bill which passed the Senate this week provides for an effective 260/0 tax on these organizations, whereas the House version provides for a 20 8 rate The difference will probably be worked out in Committee, but as pointed out two weeks ago. neither prospect should seriously alter the attractiveness of these shares. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Inq. – 6,QQ Donr JOPQ. Ralls 44 4 WALSTON & CO. INC. Thill market letter 18 not. and under no clrcumswncf!S . to be construed 8S an offer to s(!U or a sohcitahon to buy any securlbes leferred to herein The Information contained herein I not guaranteed II..!! to accuracy or completeness and the furnl8hIng thereof not. and under no ClrCUmt'tances IS to be construed 88, a representa- tiOn by Waillton I Co. Inc All expresslOnB of opInion art! subject to chanle \\.lthout notice Wal8ton I Co. Inc. Ilnd Oft'l(ers, DIrectors, Stockholders and t;mp!oyces thereof, purchase, Bell and may have an mterest an the securities mentlone! herein ThiS mru-ket letter IS mtended and presented merely lUI a general. mformal commentary on day to day market neW!! and not IIoS a complete analYSIS Additional informatIon With respect to flny securities referred to herem will be turmflhed uJl1m r e q u e s t . ' WN 301

Download PDF