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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 14, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 14, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - September 14, 1962
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FILE COpy I Walston &Co.———lnc ——–Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK ,sAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 14, 1962 INTERNATIONAL MINERALS & CHEMICAL CORP. Current Price Current Dividend 47 1. 60 Some twenty-one months ago this letter suggested the purchase of International Minerals & Current Yield 3 40/0 Chemical at the then current price of 32. At that Long Term Debt 4 Cum. Pfd. Stock Common Stock —- — Sales -1961-62 56, 289, 316 98,330 shs 2, 642, 841 shs 149,000,000 time, the Dow-Jones Industrial average was around its present price. IGL, of course, today selling at 47, has performed considerably better , verage-ov.er – reason to suspect that it will not continue to do so Earned Per Sh. 1961-62 3. 04 This thought is occasioned by the fact that Mkt. Range 1962-61 57 – 34 the writer has spent the past two days, along with other representatives of the financial community, touring IGL's potash mme and refinery at Esterhazy, Saskatchewan The tour was most impressive Sinking the 3, 378-foot shaft was probably the most difficult mining project ever completed in the Western Hemisphere The exact contribution that the project will ultimately be able to make to IGL's per-share earnings is difficult to calculate, but the company has stated it has a target of an average 100/0 annual return on its 40 million in- vestment in the project. This would approximate 1. 50 per share, or a 500/0 earnings in- crease from this source alone The above figure, however, should only be a rough guide as such complexities as tax exmptlOns, etc. , must be considered. It should also be noted that eventual completion of a second shaft should double output. There has been a great deal of talk in financial hazy, and other major potash projects now scheduled, w Ii the impact that Ester tee volatile supply- demand situation in this commodity. This talk has 0 b s t Esterhazy would be able to sell its full output and, (b) that the price asPta i main stable. Manage- ment has some persuasive arguments to thl si nting out, first of all, that na se- – Ester!1aZ'y has tura(inarkets-which, dueC —Hon – other factors, ftiiione can-be serve, and secondly, that the new e 1 uced gradually over the next few years so that impact on While the Ester azy j i lmportant, lt should be fitted into the over-all Internation IGL is, basically, a company serving agricul- ture. To fully des' s potentlal, the overworked term, growth industry must be applied gn e of the world population explosion is familiar to everyone. It lS patently apparent food production must grow sharply and that more intensive fertilization must t place. IGL's position for supplying basic fertilizer ingredients in world markets is unique. There are three major elements of plant nutrition nitrogen, phosphorus and po- tassium, the only commercial source of the la tter bemg potash IGL has long been a ma- Jor producer of the last two commodities, producing potash from leased deposits at Carls bad, New Mexlco, and phosphate rock in Florida A recently announced joint venture with Northern Natural Gas will put the company in a position to market a-nhydrous ammonia, a major source of nitrogen, and thus give it a position in all three basic fertilizer elements Since fertilizer, as pointed out above, is a bulk commodity, the company's position in regard to shipping points is also interesting. It will be shlpping potash from both Ester hazy and Carlsbad. It is nOw shipping phosphate from Florida, and is a partner with Fren h interests in a West Africa phosphate mine. 'Eventual shipmeh-t from this point would 'open additional markets Putting all this together, he company has pointed out that they will be able to compete in every major market of the world outside the communist block Over the near-term, desplte a projected lower first half, the company's earnings should show a reasonably good increase over the 3.04 earned in the year ended June 30, 1962 The techmcal pattern of the stock has not been destroyed by the recent market bre and indicates considerably higher levels over the long term. We continue to feel that IGL is one of the better growth opportunities presently available Dow-Jones Ind 605 84 Dow-Jones Rails 121 23 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mark'!t letter IS not, and under no CirCumstances 19 to be construed as an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy any referred to herein The mformatlon ('ont.8\o&l herem 19 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof 19 not. and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed 8S, B reprcsenta tlOn by Waiston & Co, Jnc All e'O(pressH;mfl of opiniOn are subJect to change without notIce. Walston & Co, Inc, Bnd OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders and Eml)Joylell thereof, Ilurchasc, sclland may ha.e nn Interest In the- secUrities mentiOned herein ThiS market letter 18 mtended and presented merely as a general. mrormal commentnry on day to day market n,' \5 and not as a complete Additional lllformatlOn With respect to any Securities referred to herem Will be furnished upon r e q u e s t ' \\'N 301 – \

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 21, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 21, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - September 21, 1962
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FILE COPY Walston &CO. —-Inc —– Members N 810 York Stock EXchange NEW YORK 51', FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER september 21, 1962 After advancing for nine out of ten sessions, the Dow-Jones Industrials dropped off sha rply on Thursday and Friday of this week, and Friday's low of 589.52 penetrated on the downside the narrow range in which the market had held for the past 26 trading days. During the late advance, our short-term breadth index turned increasingly sluggish and the low in the averages was preceded on Thursday by a new low in breadth. Despite this somewhat disappointing action, it is worthwhile at this time to repeat a paragraph which appeared in this letter two weeks ago. the momenJ, difficult to get too.pessimistic.on eral market. The possibility always remains that the high of 622.02 reached in A-ugust —- may be the ultimate high for the post-bear-market rally. However, before a decline of any magnitude is indicated, a distributional top will have to form at around current levels say, between 590 and 620. No distribution of this nature has as yet taken place and until it does take place, it is best to regard the market constructively. Despite the desultory action of the market in the past two weeks, the same para- graph applies with equal force today, for in the past two weeks no real distribution of any magnitude has taken place. A maJor decline at this time and from these levels,therefore,'-' appears to be a remote possibility. All this talk of the averages is, of course, the easy way of looking at the stock market. Much more difficult and complex, but infinitely more rewarding, is the study of a large number of individual issues and industry groups. Such a study reveals an interest ing diversity. As everyone remotely familiar with the technical behavior of stocks is aware, a decline in a stock is followed by a period of accumulation or formation of a base which, in turn, is followed by an upward move. Since in the Spring of this year they were, at the begmnin of t S almost uniformly r,Oall on an equal foot- ing. Behavior since then, however, has differed e.!Jj 0 s o a v e formed no bases at all. Others have formed fairly substantial but e still not broken out of these-trading ranges–Yet others 'h ding-ranges-on-the-ups-ide; -. but still have upside objectives rr evels. The great majority of stocks appear to fall in the latter t c r' minority have already reached the upside objectives outlined b e two months. Furthermore, thO a ' us b set within the context of longer-term patterns. A great many sto s w ow their 1960 lows in May and June of this year, and in some of th ssible that the present rallying phase, or any future rally, constitutes 0 a r ery in a major downtrend which will bring them to eventual levels below their Ma ne bottoms. On the other hand, in the case of those stocks whic held above their 19 lows, the current rally may, in many cases, be regarded as the first phase of a long-term uptrend. As always, it becomes more profitable to look at these individual patterns than at the averages. One individual pattern which appears partlcularly interesting at this time is that of Schlumberger, Ltd. (62). It entered our recommended list when it absorbed Daystrom, which we had suggested for purchase some years ago. Schlumberger is an extremely in- teresting company. Somewhat more than half its revenues are derived from oil field ser- vices, including Wire Logging, Perforatlng and Core Sampling. Based on major drilling programs now scheduled, this segment-of the business should continue to exhibit good growth, but perhaps the most mteresting potential lies in diversificati().!! into electronic ins trume nta tion. The acquisition of Daystrom was a logical step in thisdiversification, as was the purchase a year ago of two French instrumentation companies. The company recently reported earnings for the first six months had risen to 1. 83 vs. 1. 50 in 1961. For the full year, net may run as high as 4.00 a share, with improvement expected in 1963. Yield is small, but the stock is of investment quality and appears to be an attract- ive purchase in growth accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 591. 78 Dow-Jones Rails 117.79 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market is not, and under no Circumstances 18 to be construed 88. an ffer to sell or a soliCitatIOn to buy any secUrities rc!erred to herein The information contained herem IS not M to accuracy or completeness and the urnlshlllj;!' thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- lion by Walston '- Co, Inc All expreSSIOns of Opinion are subJect to chanp;e WIthout notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Qfflcel'1l. Directors, Stockholders and Employees thercof, purchase, sellllnd mny have an mten!5t In the securities mentIoned ThiS market letter 19 intended and presented merely as a general, mformal commentnry on day to day market newlI and not as a complete AdditIonal mformatlon With respect to any securities -referred to herem will be rurnlshed upon request V. N J01

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 28, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 28, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - September 28, 1962
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– FILE COpy Wdlston &Co. – Inc – – – – – Members N e, York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OJFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 28, 1962 On my return from a trip to the West Coast, I find that dunng the past two weeks bearishness in financial circles has increased sharply. The result has been a dechne to 572.16 in the Dow-Jones Industrial average, a 51 retracement of the 97-point advance from the June low of 524.55 to the August high of 622.02. General opmion seems to be that a test of the May-June lows is imminent and that the odds favor a downside penetra- tion to new lows. Is subh pessimism justified As far as the economic outlook is concerned, business has been in an extremely !pild .lows of earJ.Y 19..L….The.chances ar. that this.mild ree0Y.EY wil! continue to December and be followed by an equally mild- decline with tlie formatIon of -it saucer-type bottom in 1963. Earnings on the Dow-Jones Industrial average for 1962 wIll be around 35 or 36. Earnings for 1963 will probably be about the same as 1962,althougli the quarter to quarter comparisons will be different. This is hardly the background for a broad market advance, but neither is it the background for a further steep decline after a 30 drop in the averages from the 1961 high to the 1962 low. In 1961, the Industrial averages were selling at twenty-four times earnings and were sharply overvalued. The present level of roughly seventeen times earnings is still high on a historical baSIS. However, today's earnings are of higher quality than ten years ago and it is doubtful that the low PiE ratios existing in the early 1950's will be repeated again. A level of around fifteen times earmngs is probably about a downside floor. The market was selling around fifteen times earnings at the year's low of 525. On the technical side, there are several points that might be mentioned (1) – The stock market made a maJor top in 1961 at 741. 30 in the Industrial aver- age. This high will not be penetrated for a long time to 1965. not until 1964 or 0 (2) – The decline from the 1961 top to the 0 5 .5 a decline of 29. This has been the steepest decline since the 1937 d . 0 e ive years ago. The rr!!t support aj; approximate technical downside obJective 0 956 . . 5.254 also p pat formed in 1961 and earlyl962. If there is a downside penetratlOn w,' 1, in our opinion, be minor in nature. The probabillties (3) – If the two ove i a major bottom in 1962. the market will remain in a wide trading area for a long time 0 c u low the pattern of 1946-1949 when the Industrial average fluctuate r 32 months. The price swings could be somewhat wider and the time d s what shorter, however. The probabilities favor 550-525 as the lower limits ange, and 650-675 as the upper limits. (4) – This b trading area will eventually turn out to be an accumulation base that will result in a price level considerably above the 1961 highs. It will be an extremely trymg period. Many stocks will reach new lows during this basing out process. In 1946- 1949, the Industrial average did not break the initial low of October, 1946, but during the next thirty-two months, forty-eight of the fifty-five Standard & Poor's industry groups made new lows. Selectivity will be of pnme Importance. Many stocks have reached their lows of the accumulation pattern. Many others will reach new lows before they start their own accumulation patterns. (5) – The upside objective of the May-June base was 620-650. The lower part of this range was reached at 622.02 in August. The downside penetration of the 620-600 are suggests a declme to 580-550. If the.decline holds inthisarea, it wdtild indicate a broade ing of the potenhal base pattern and an objective above the August high. (6) – It must be remembered that long-term accumulation patterns with stocks passing from weaker holders to stronger investment holders are built up against a back- ground of pessimism and gloom and lack of speculative enthusiasm. In contrast, long-ter distributional patterns like 1961, With stocks passing from investment holders to weaker short-term speculative holders, are built up against a background of enthusiasm and opti- mism and speculative excesses. It takes a long and trying time period for these patterns to form during which the investor must follow a basic objective. In 1961, this letter sug- gested a basic objective of selling on strength. In this present period, we suggest a basic policy of buying selected issues on weakness. Dow-Jones Ind. 578.98 Dow-Jones Rails 115. 68 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'l mnrket letter IS not, and under no cilCllmSwnces IS to be construed 8S. an offer to sell or l\ soliCitation to buy any securities referred to hereIn. The information contained herem lS not Rua.ranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshlnl'! thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances \s to be construed 88, a representa- tIOn by WnLston & Co, Inc All expreSSIOns or opInion are subJect to ChalH!;e WIthout notice Wnlston & Co, Inc, and Officers, DITC(!tOrB, Stockholders and Employee, thereof, purchru;e, sell nnd may have an mterest In the securities mentioned herem ThIS market letter is Intended a.nd presented merely as a general. Informal commentary on dny to day market news and not as a complete 8ona1Y61'1 AdditIonal mformatlOn ' Ith respect to any referred to herein Will be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 05, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 05, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - October 05, 1962
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FILE COpy Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH,lCAGO ,i TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERseAS October 5, 1962 The market is in the middle of a four-month trading area between 525 and 625 in i the Dow-Jones Industrials. There is little technical indication of a move out of this tra- ding area in either direction in the immediate future. The base pattern formed in May- , June indicated a possible advance to 615-650. The lower part of this upside objective was , reached at the August high of 622.02. The downside penetration of the August-September range between 620 and 600 indicates a possible decline to the 580-545 area. This week's' intra-day low was 569.23. The decline has broadened the long-term potential base pat- tern buLproba,plijT-IDore.time is,neededbefore a.broad,mgjor ,upward ,moye Such a move would be indicated 'by the'breadth index shmving better ilc'tion thardhe 'av'er–' ages, and this is not the situation at the moment. However, for the nearer term, the mar ket appeared oversold at the week's low and a rally back to 600-620 is probable. Breadth action must be observed closely if such a rally occurs. The market is in the tedious process of forming a long-term base, During the period, stocks should be bought on weakness. This particularly applies to individual' issues and groups that appear attractive for the longer term on both a fundamental and technical basis. In our opinion, the aluminum issues fall into this category. Late in September, price reductions on some fabricated aluminum products y.'as , announced. This action brought list prices down to the actual level of prices at which fa- bricated goods have sold in recent months. Considering the strong statistical position ,of the industry, this action came as a surprise. August stocks of primary metals in hands of producers were at an 18-month low in August, and current ingot production is esti- mated at 85 – 90 of capacity. Aluminum stocks sold off sharply on the announcement, as shown in the table below May-June Low Au ust i h \Wek9s Low Last Aluminium, Ltd. 17 1/2 /8 20 1/8 Aluminum Co. of Amer. 45 – Aluminum''- '-25- 1\ 51 1/ 8 53 1/4 -. ,' I , 1961-rise They were time haVE decli wei2J; w. et leaders of part 1949 issues and had fantastic'price rises. The in the 1956-1959 period, and since that i '1 his price action is noted in the table below' r.ow-1949 -. Alumimum, t 7 Alummum fAmeI'. 12 . Kaiser Aluminum ,, -Reynolds Metals 2 2 High 1956-59 53 133 70 80 Low-1961 171/2 45 25 20 1/2 Last 20 1/8 531/4 32 1/4 23 7/8 1, The alummum stocks have been in a bear market from three to six ,years. They I have, had a three-wave declme and appear, from a techmcal vi!,!wpoint, to be in the pro- Ii cess of form' ing an accumulation base prior to a major price advance. This hts in with I the fundamental background for the alummum industry. The main difficulty of the past several y'ears has been over-capacity and lowered profit margins. New uses for aluminurr j which could open up new markets and displace other materials in existing markets, could i result m sharply higher sales and earnings in the next five years. We believe this group , is an attractive long-term purchase at present price levels. Aii four issues appeaf' at- I tractive. If we were to plCk one issue, it would be Reynolds Metals, which is part of , our recommended list. – ,,, The mulation aluminums appear to be We believe taking at a relatively advanced a tax loss in issues with stage of a mediocre long-term accuprice potentials – , over the mtermediate-term and SWitching mto aluminums would be a wise investment . I procedure. There are several issues in our recommended list that fall into this category '\ and we adVise switching BendiX, Consohdated Mining, Goodrich, Johns Manville, Pitts- ,, burgh plate Glass, Pullman and United Shoe Machinery into the aluminums. Dow-Jones Dow-Jones Ind. Ralls 586.59 116.36 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & I k lett('r IS not nnd under no to he con'llruP1 as. an offer to. sell or n solICitatIon to buy any lIecurlties referred to herem The informatlon not fL.'; to accuracY or lomplctenes'l and the furnishlnll thereof 1'1 not and under no Circumstances IS to h WI & Co In(' All C'lpre'l'l)nns or n\lInl(m are suhJC'Ct to chanl!e Without notIce Walston & Co, Inc. Bnd Officers, Irectors, c 0 en an y II Rton f nnd may have an u\ter(''It, In the 'If''Curlt.lCl mentioned herein ThiS market letter 1'1 Intended and preaented merely as II genernl. on day to day market new'l and not as B complete nnnlysis Additional InformatIOn With respect to referred to herem \ t r ,t , I !

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 12, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 12, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - October 12, 1962
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FILECOMV W—a-lsttnocn.&–C-o-. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-UCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 12, 1962 Gloom and pessimism is rampant, but there is little change in the actual technical market pattern. The indications continue that we are in the long tedious process of forming a long-term base, and this requires downside price movement along with upside. From a shorter term point of view, ability of the Dow Industrials to move above 600 would indicate a further extension of the advance from the June lows. A decline below 570 would indicate a return to the 550-525 level which we consider a long-term buying area. CLUETT, PEABODY & CO. INC. Current Price Current Dividend -E Current Yield -, 1. 65 3.7 – It is a stock market axiom that the whole is usually worth considerably less than the sum of its parts, but in the case of Cluett, Long-Term Debt 6,302,278 Peabody, the present discount from a realis- 7 Cum. Pfd. 22,566 shs. tic valuation of the divisions taken separately 4 Cum. 2nd Pfd. 4, 186 shs. appears to be rather excessive. Common Stock 1, 985, 658 shs. Any man who has ever worn an Arrow Sales -1962-E Sales -1961 175,000,000 138,610,000 Earn. Per Sh. 1962-E Earn. Per Sh. 1961 3 40 3.02 I shirt is familiar with Cluett's basic clothing business. It is a business which, while hardly glamorous, appears to be an attractive and expanding operation. Cluett has expanded sales from 97 million in 1958 to 13B million Market Range 1962-61 531/2 – 3a 1/2 in 1961. In the same period,pre-tax income from sales million to 11 1/2 million, and profit margins have roug 0 from under 4 .Further growth is foreseen as Cluett is adding considerably to its baaie 0 r ishings and, in an effort .e ''''otect and expand its markets, has en field. The company is t..Apanding into the growing wea arket with a wide line of Lady-Arrow shirts'a;nd -blouses ue 0 he'black-,on'the'women's wear operation for the first time this ye , e s are expected tQ increase to 175 million, and although . to entrance into the retail ff.eld, pre- tax income inc ase t . 5 iIadh; . Entirely s p censing of the sa any's production and retail operations is its liized Plus trademarks. Sanforized provides technical services for 141 li es 1 countries and royalty income after applicable expenses has increased in r since 1953 and should continue to increase at approximately a 6/. growth rate. \lI'Or 1962, it is estimated at some 3.75 million before taxes. Let us now assume that the clothing manufacturing and retailing operations of Cluett should be valued at a conservative rate of 12 times 1962 earnings. Let us more- over apply a 20 PiE ratio to the high-grade royalty income which requires little or nothing in the way of production facilities and investment and which, in a sense, provides an annuity for Cluett. After adding these two valuations and subtracting debt, preferred stock and minority interest, we arrive at a total valuation for the common equity of around 46 a share or, just about what Cluett sells for today. Why, then, get excited about a stock which appears to be only fairly valued The answer is that we have not taken into account the company's 50 owned Clupak, Inc. which licenses a unique process for the production of extensible paper. The potentials inherent in the Clupak process are staggering. In 1961, total tonnage of Clupak paper produced was 38 greater than in 1960. Yet, at the moment, Clupak's penetration of the unbleached Kraft paper market is only B and unbleached Kraft constitutes only one outlet for the process. Cluett is currently involved in litigation concerning the process which should be decided shortly, and a favorable decision could clear the air for sharply expanded licensing. The investor in Cluett at current prices is, therefore, buying an expanding appar- el operation at a slight discount and is paymg absolutely nothing for the tremendous growt inherent in Clupak. From a technical pOint of view, the stock is selling just above strong support at 40-35 and has a shorter-term upsi.de; potential of 55 with much .levels possible over the longe,r-term. The stock, orlgmally suggested at 2B 3/B, 1S agam recom- mended for long-term mvestment. EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 586.47 Dow-Jones Rails 11B.04 WALSTON & CO INC .. Thla market letter is not, and under no circumstances i1I to be construed as, an ofter to BeU or a eoitcltatlon to bU) any 6eCurities referred to herein. The information contained heretn ie not guaranteed lUI to aeeUlacy or completeness a.nd the furnishmg thereof Is not, and under no elr-cumstanees ls to be con..t.rued as, a repreaenta- twn by Walston &; Co, Inc. All expressions of opinion are Bubject to change without notice. Walston & Co, Tile., and Oft'lcera, Direct.. .8, Stockholdere and Employees thereof, purchase, &ell and may have an interet in the seeurities menttoned herein. This market letter 18 intended and merely as 8. general, informal commentarY on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analysis. Additional mformatJon with respect to any securities referred to herein will be furnlehed upon request. . WN 301 r or

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 19, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 19, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - October 19, 1962
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fILE COpy , Walston &Co. Inc Members N e1V York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH.lCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 19, 1962 This is a strange business that we are in. In most things of life, people profit from past mistakes and do not repeat them. This is not true of the stock market. Both specula- tors and investors repeat the same mistakes over and over again. This has been going on since tradmg started 10 Wall Street under the Buttonwood Tree on May 17th, 1792. The reason for this irrational behavior is that speculative trading is ruled largely by emotion Two of the basic emotions, greed and fear, are the greatest enemies of stock market succe s One of the few advantages of being a veteran in Wall Street is that you have seen ' 'l!..t Late You mze the show Immedlately, but slowly the characters and plot become'familiar and-You realize that thlS is where you came in twenty or thirty years ago. The same thing in the stock market., The people and the stocks change, but the plot remains the same The market IS prone to move to extremes – – both on the upside and the downside. Regardless of the facts, the market generates the most optimism at the top and the most pessimism at the bottom. Take 1961 as an example. The market in general, and individual stocks in particular, rose to ridiculous helghts, based not on immediate earnings, but on dreamboat future, The inevltable result was a 30 decline in the market averages and a much greater decline in many indlvldual issues. Why did the market' decllne It declined for two reasons. First, because the mar- ket was much too high in the first place and needed a severe correction. The second reason for the 30 drop in pnces was 10 anticipation of a decline in business. At the moment, pessimism and bearishness are in the ascendancy. This is the direct opposite emotional background from 1961. Is the present bearishness Just as un- justified as the bullishness of 1961 We believe It IS. news items in today's Wall Street Journal are part of the s technical opinion,three above conclusion , The first Item points out that the anticipated Most key business indIces are hIgher or the same a b s'n s fia. yet taken place. y, 1 . e second item states -. – by The two other economists saId they Improve throughout 1963. If the 30 drop 10 decline that has not yet occurre , , it,doesnot appearfeas t \ 11 it again if and when'th'e business de- cline occurs. It a e s m ' the market WIll continue to look ahead and dis- count a recovery i pa 1963 . .The third ite s or itself and concerns a statement by Treasury Secretary .illon. He lists a .numb factors condUCIve to business expanslOn, one of which is the orthcoming proposa 0 Congress for a net reductlOn in taxes. In reply to the objection hat tax reduction without a cut in spendmg is not feasible, Mr. DIllon replled Such talk is not realistic. If taken literally, it would mean VIrtually permanent postponement of any ax reduchon. There is no reallstic ros ect for the foreseeable future of reducin Federa e,x endittires below current levels in view of the ur ent and compellin .demands of the cold ar, the space a e, and a rowmg POpulatlOn. From a techmcal vlewpomt, the market IS in a very interesting stage of a time pat- ern. Despite the worse-than-average action of most breadth mdlces at the moment, many of, these indIces Indicate the probabIlity of a turn In the downward trend over the next several weeks. We stated in last week's letter that a decline below the early October mtra day low of 569.23 would mdlcate a return to the 550-525 level. ThIS, if It occurs, would a-long-term buying area;'iri our opinion. Frraay's intra-day low was 570.44. It ts our belief that the low of the market will occur very shortly and it will be fonowed by an advance that WIll carry above the August high of 622.02 by the early part of 1963.1 Dechnes between now and the end of the year will,in our opimon, be the last opportumty to estabhsh a long-term pOSItion before the start of the advance. Dow-Jones Ind. 573,29 Dow -Jones,Rails' 116, 17 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. '1 1101 Rnr) under no IS to he- ('on'ltrucn na, nn offer to ..ell or II '1ohcllnhon to buy any fl(,(,UrLtll;'s referred to herein The InformatIOn rntnined herem nut ,1; t.o acC'urnc) or and thf' furnishing thereof I not, anti under no Circumstance! IS to be construed as, Il represcntll- tmn hy Walston & Co, InC' All c,prCStlron5 of OPInIOn are suhJf'Ct to chan!!c …. Ithout notice. Wnlston &. Co, Inc, and Officers, DIrectors, Swckholders and I'mploye'; IlUlcha;(' and may an interest III the securities meatlonf'ri herein Thl !nrkct letter If! Intended and presented merely as a general, Informal commentary on day to oa) market ne…. s and not. as a complete flnnlY;;ls AddItIOnal III (ormatIOn …. Ith TCpect W any securities referred to herem furnished uptln

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 26, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 26, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - October 26, 1962
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Walston &'Co. fiLE COpy .- 9—\.C,. ,, , , Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 26, 1962 The intensification of the Cuban situation does not alter the long-term technical pat tern outlined by this letter on innumerable occasions in the past. Since 1959, this letter has expressed the opinion that the market would reach a major top around the 750 level in the early 1960's, and the sequel would be a decline to around the 525 level followed by a long and lengthy consohdation that might last for several years. To express our present opinion, I am repeating a part of the letter of a month ago, September 28th, 1962 – …-' —!..'(1)—. m;tjortop in.19.6Lat.74L 30,in the,.lndusiriaLaver- age. This high will not be penetrated for a long time to com-e -' probably not or 1965. (2) – The decline from the 1961 top to the June low of 524. 55 was a decline of 290/0. This has been the steepest decline since the 1937 decline of twenty-five years ago. The decline met support at the logical level off the 1956-1957 hIgh of 525, which was also the approxima te technical downside objective of the top pattern formed in 1961 and early 1962 If there is a downside penetration of the June low, it will, in our opinion, be minor in nature. The probabilities are that the market made a major bottom in 1962. (3) – If the two above points are correct, the market will remain in a wide trading area for a long time to come. It could follow the pattern of 1946-1949 when the Industrial average fluctuated in a 200/0 range for 32 months. The price swings could be somewhat wider and the time period somewhat shorter, however. The probabilities favor 550-525 as the lower limits of the range, and 650-675 as the upper limits. (4) – This broad trading area will eventually turn out to be an accumulation base that will result in a price level considerably above the 1961 It will be an extremely try- ing period. Many stocks will reach new lows during this b i In 1946-1949, the' Industrial average dId not break the initial low 'TftOc\01 b uring the next 32 months, 48 of the 55 Standard & Poor's industry e s. Selectivity will be ,!pr;ime l\.!any stocis have reached Many others will reach new lows before (5) – The upside objective of 0 th'M- accumulation patterns. . as 620-650, The lower part of this range was reached at 622. gests a decline to 580-550. I e e e penetration of the 620-600 area sugin this area, it would indicate a broaden- ing of the s a Jective above the August high. This week d 49.65 reached on Wednesday. Disturbing news event might bring in eno rv u ing to cause a further mild decline to the 550-500 area, but this would; in ou opi' ,offer an excellent long-term buying opportunity. The events of th st week will have one of three results (l) – An all-out nuclear war. (2) – A compr (3) – An intensification of the cold war and probable Korean- type involvements. The first alternative can be dismissed very quiCkly. It is so utterly fantastic and improbable that any attempt to base an investment policy on such a contingency is outright folly. The second alternative would not greatly alter the present pattern, but It appears unlikely that an acceptable compromIse on all phases of international problems can be arrived at over the nea r -term. The third alternative appears the most likely. If this is the case, it would change the general opinion that the economy will undergo a slight recession early in 1963 .. .at least part of the 290/0 decline in the Dow-Jones Industrials to the June low was In antiCIpa- tion of such a recession, thIS would be a constructive market factor. An intensification of the cold war to a lukewarm war would result in an inventory build-Up and firmer prices and'would be beneficial-to industries with both excess capacity and low profit margInS Such industries w('uld include AIrlines, Aluminums, Chemicals, Machine Tools, Papers and Rails, among other Industries. On the unfavorable side, a tax cut in 1963 would be quite unlikely. . As we stated last week, the market is in a very interesting stage of a time pattern. Despite the worse-than-average action of most breadth indices, the probabilities favor a change in trend of most of these indices in the next several weeks. It continues to be our belief that the low in the market will occur shortly, if it hasn't already occurred,and will be followed by an advance above the August high of 622.02 by the early part of 1963. Declines between now and the end of the year win, in our opimon, be the fast opportunity to establish a long-term position before the start of the advance. Dow-Jones Ind. 569.02 Dow-Jones Rails 118.93 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thill market letter IS not. and under no clrcumstnnces IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or a sohCltatlOn to buy any SecUrtties referred to herem The mformatlon contained herem III not guRrant.cro tI.lI to accuracy or completeness and the furnlShlnK thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances is to be construed as, a repre!lenta- tiOn by Wnlston & Co., InC' All expresSiOns of opInion are subject to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Offlcera, Directors, Stockholders and ;mployees thereof, purchase, sell and may have nn mterest In the securities mentioned herCIn ThIS market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general, Informal commentary on day to day market news and not 8S 8 complete ana!)sls Additional information With resPCl't to any securities referred to herein '\10111 be furnished UPlln request WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 02, 1962
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I FILE COpy Walston &Co. ——–lnc——— Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH,iCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Last week's market action was constructive. November 2, 1962 The Dow-Jones Industrials penetrated a downtrend line which had been in effect since August, following similar action by the Rail average in the week previous. Although some supply in the Industrials may be encountered in the 600-620 area, an eventual upside penetration is expected and this letter continues to maintain the optimistic attitude toward the market that we have indicated over the past month. The stock market is a highly complex business but, paradoxically, the best answer toa question is often the simplest one. One reason !e tend to favor new buying of stocks at this time one that th;yare' cheaperthanlIJ.-e)i'nave- -De en- ,,- in some time. Thus, the following table which shows pricel earnings ratios at their bull market highs, currently, and at recent lows for America's 35 largest publicly held In- dustrial companies is instructive. Thirty-three of the 35 companies are now selling below their peak ratios indicating that the bear market adjustment has been as much as any- thing else, a change in investor confidence rather than a change in the fundamentals. It is interesting to note that at their highs, 4 of the companies were selling above 40 times earnings, 8 above 30 times earnings and 17 above 20 times earnings. Only 9 of the com- panies could have been bought at their peaks, at less than a 15 multiple. Now, on the other hand, 24 of America's 35 largest companies can be bought under 15 times earnings with only 5 of the stocks above a 20 pI E and only 1 selling at more than 30 times ear ning! . General Motors Stand. Oil of N. J. Ford Motor General Electric Socony Mobil Oil Price 55 53 42 68 52 High 59 69 59 100 66 Date 1959 1957 1961 1959 1956 High 1962 pIE Ratio pIE Ratio Low At Low GEt\\\19.3 17.4 15A 40 11. 9 W 1).9 6 '8.5 .0 11. 6 35 9.3 pIE Ratio Now 12.2 1'1 13.9 10 9.8 I'l- 22.6 Ue 10.9 , Gulf Oil Swift &Co. 34 34 0' 13.4 31 32 10.3 11. 6 11. 3 12.3 DuPont, Chrysler Corp. 5 2 955 31. 3 8.9 165 39 17.9 7.8 23.9 12.4 General Dynamics 1957 14.4 20 4.4 5.6 Stand. Oil of Calif. 62 1959 15.5 40 9.5 12.4 Bethlehem Steel 9 59 1959 24.2 27 13.5 14.5 Stand. Oil of Indiana 41 65 1956 15.4 35 8.6 9.3 Westinghouse Elec. Shell Oil 28 65 1960 32 47 1961 29.3 20.3 25 29 16.7 11. 4 18.7 12.5 Boeing Co. 38 65 1956 13.5 23 7.5 12.4 National Dairy 52 79 1961 22.5 46 12.4 14.0 Armour & Co. 34 57 1962 21. 5 32 12.1 12.8 Intern'l Business Mach. 352 Intern'lHarvester 46 Union Carbide 96 607 1961 57 1959 151 1959 66. 1 10.1 26.5 300 38 83 28. 6 11.2 15.8 33. 5 11.5 18.3 Proctor & Gamble 63 102 1961 40.0 56 20.4 22.9 Radio Corp. 50 78 1960-,- 40 ..4 Goodyear Tlre & R 29 50 1959 21. 8 Lockheed Aircraft 49 53 1962 11. 8 No. Amer. Aviation 64 72 1962 17.6 General Tel. & E1ec. 20 34 1960 33.3 Phillips Petroleum 43 65 1961 19.6 Sinclair Oil Corp. 30 73 1956 12.2 Firestone Tire & R 28 51 1961 22.1 Sperry Rand 11 35 1961 43.2 General Foods 69 108 1961 37.2 Contlt1ental Can 42 60 1958 17.1 ;39 14, 2 25 11. 4 35 7.8 38 9.3 18 15.7 42 12.5 29 11. 2 25 11. 1 10 11.8 58 19.0 31 14.0 13.2 10.9 15.6 17.4 12.8 11. 5 12.4 12.9 22.6 12.7 D-J Ind.604. 58 1960 Low D-.J Rajl S 122.51 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter is not, and under no t'lrcumstRnees is to be construed as, an offer to or a sohcltation to buy any lIecurltles referred to nereln, The Information conttuned herein 18 not as to accurnc or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not, and under no circumlltanees III to be construed all, II. representn. tlOn by Wai!;ton & Co, Inc All clCpressions of opinIOn arE subject to change Without notice, Walston &; Co. Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and l'mplo'eetj tneroof, purchase, soil and mny ha\e nn Interest In the seeurltlcs mentIOned herein ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general. Informal commentary on day to day market neWS and not as a complete annlysls Additional mformation With respect to any secUrities referred to herein Will be furmsnf'(1 uJ)n request TN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 09, 1962
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I.r Walston 5- Co. Inc FILE COpy Member8 New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEnER November 9, 1962 The market is following the expected technical pattern, but the pace of the advance, at least in terms of the averages, has been a bit more rapid than anticipated. Several weeks ago this letter suggested that an upside penetration of the August intra-day high of 622.02 in the Dow-Jones Industrial average would occur around the turn of the year. However, with an advance of over seventy points (or over 120/0) in only ten trading days, the Industrials are already very near an upside breakout. The week's intra-day high was 620. 06. The advance so far has been concentrated in the big name stocks which is why the Dow-J-on-es-Industr-ial avel'a'ge;–consist-ing of-30such.stocks, high, than the broader Standard & Poor's Industrial index which consists of 425 stocks. The August high in the S & P Industrial index was 63.28, and this week's high was 61.91. This selective action is also reflected in our breadth index which is well below the high registered in August. However, an advance brought about by an abrupt change in the emotional background usually.starts with an advance in the better known stocks and the secondar issues follow along at a later date. This is the anticipated action at the moment. Breadth indices will probably furnish the clue to the timing and extent of the present advance. On the favorable side, some of the more sensitive breadth indices, such as 25-week mOving totals of volume and of advances and declines, have already given a significantly bullish signal. Various shorter term graphs of market action indicate the need of some consolidation at this point, but the intermediate-term pattern still remains the same. We anticipate an advance to the 650-685 level in the first half of 1963. We continue to sugges a basic policy of buying selected issues on weakness. .. The important question, of course, is what to buy. is wise not to try to master-mind the market as far as in idu . is a time when it are concerned. Fashions in stocks change Just as fashions in clothachn In t few years while the market was reaching the mature stage of the tw \(efyea a ce from the 1949 lows, the search was for the exotic and unusual, gr – of tis' r -r s theory reached the height w1lfStocks is oasicaUya very c sound one if it is applied to the righ t n nately, there aren't very many real growth stocks. In 1961, stocks and did not des ve th bikini in the swim u f a tely, there aren 't many stocks were g ti I!I!\l.rWissues that were classified as growth i. e theory in stocks is comparable to the . l' oks awfully good on the right girl, but, unfortune- t look good in a bikini. In stock market terms, too h multiples in 1961. Probably a more conservative fashion will be popular r the next several years. This letter be ves that the stock market reached a major top in 1961 and a major bottom in 1962, and the sequel will be a long and lengthy consolidation and accumulation area in, roughly, the 700-500 range. This is similar to the pattern formed in the 19461949 period which laid the base for the 1949-1961 advance. Once the advance started, the leaders of the first phase of the advance from 1949 to 1956 were big, strong blue chip issues of the type mentioned in our compilation of the 35 largest industrial companies in last week's letter. It is our belief that issues of this type will also be the leaders of the next broad advance. Unlike the market averages, which reached their highs in November, 1961.many of these blue chip issues reached their highs in 1956 to 1959 and have done little marketwise since that time. The leaders of the latter phase of the 1949-1961 period were largely in the consumer goods field. The last important capital goods boom was in the,-1956-1957 period. By 1965, the need for capital spending will be more apparent, and the leaders of the advance in the market will probably include the kind of company, such as General Electric, which benefits from a high-volume, durable goods economy.Accompany ing such a rise will, of course, be the gOOd, sound growth companies, butthe number will be smaller than in the recent past. EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 616-13 Dow-Jones Rails – 126.05 WALSTON & CO. INC. .j ThIS market letter is flot. and under no cueumstances 18 ttl be construed as, an !lffer to S(lli or a soliCitatIOn to buy any secUrities ff!ferred to herem The mformatlon contained herem 10 not WI to accuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof 18 not, and under no circumstances is to be construf!d so, a. representa- tIOn by Walston & Co, Inc All eXpreqSlOnS of OPiniOn are subject to. change Without Walston & Co, ll1C., and Officers, Directors. Stockholders snd Employees thereof purchase sell and may have an Interest In the securitIes mentlOncd herein ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general. \Wmformai on dai to day market news not as a complete analysts Additional mform!!.tlon With respect to sny SecUrities referred to herein furmshed uJXn reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 16, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 16, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 16, 1962
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Walston &- Co. Inc o MCIII!e Xell' -n!'!.' Stnc/; Euhanfle NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 16, 1962 The performance of the stock market over the past month has been, to say the least, impressive. In 16 trading days the Dow-Jones Industrial average has risen almost 16 with advances bemg scored on 11 trading days out of the 16. In all but 4 days, the number of advancing stocks exceeded the number declining, usually by a considerable margin. Thus, where we had originally projected a target of 650-685 for the Dow, to be reached some time in the Spring of 1963, it now appears more likely of attainment in January or February. Whether this is the sharpest rise for such a period on record is a matter of conjec- ture, but it is certainly one of the sharpest. What is even more interesting is the dramatic change in Wall Street-psychology that has taken place. -A few weeks ago, points lower, it was practically impossible to find a bullish voice being raised in the financial community. At that time this letter said, It is our belief that the low of the market will occur very shortly and it will be followed by an advance that will carry above the August high ….. by the early part of 1963. Declines between now and the end of the year….. will be the last opportunity to establish a long-term position before the start of the advance. It was a voice crying in the wilderness. Most of the seers who have now swung sharply to the bullish side of the fence now claim that the successful confrontation in Cuba has, in some magical way, made stocks wort more today than they were a month ago. This is, in our opinion, tenuous at best. The rise in stocks that followed Khrushchev's backdown is another one of a long chain of examples of the market's finding an excuse to do what it was in a technical position to do in the first pIa more valid explanation for both the magnitude and tic amounts of money that were, at the end of October, poi lies in the fantasto enter the equity market. The following items are of interest. (1) – Time deposits in Federal Reserve ban\ il, by t nd of September, in- creased almost 6 1/2 billion since the end figure, it is only necessary to say that it is s t current average prices. t 'ilea of the magnitude of this i 1 t to chase 150 million shares of – — — – – — (2)-Mutual funds, increased their liquidity. When a -n r.9R,hlr in sales in August and September, had showed an increase, which is believed to be the case, a a ore 'n s nt pressure came from this source. (3) – By 0 1 0 terest had reached more than 6 million shares, and the ratio to daily vol ar ed 1.98, a level which, since 1932, has occurred only close to major bottoms -n arket. The average investor was, to use the vernacular, caught with his pants d or, perhaps more accurately, with his shorts down. What, however, does '111 this mean for investment policy at the moment This depends largely on the current position of the investor. If he had the courage to take a largely invested position at the end of October, ther is very little problem. It is only necessary for him to maintain this position. The rapidity of the rise, however, is a guarantee that most investors are not in such a position. holdings on any minor decline. The They are, indeed, great difficulty is t waiting hat with fsoor the opportunity to add to many potential equity buy- ers in this position, any decline is not likely to be drastic. Certainly, with the averages now above the August high, the 620-600 top area of that period should provide support for any de- cline. Even the very unlikely contingency of a return to the 550 low should be of little consequence to the holder of well chosen equities. It is much more probable that a correction, if there is one, will be minor in scope. Meanwhile, the upside objective of our technical work continues to be 650-685 on the Dow. A large number of stocks have higher percentage upside potentials and, above all, it is probable that a large portion of the potential equity money mentioned above is still waiting to enter the market. In view of all this, those investors still having cash reserves are probably best off committing them at the present time. Dow-Jones Ind. 630. 98 Dow-Jones Rails 131. 03 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 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