Viewing Year: 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 23, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 23, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 23, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

I – – I Wdlst1!!l&Co. FILE ;OPV Member. Nell' Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND TABEll'S MARKET lETTER November 23, 1962 In mid-October, Industrial average was selling in the 560-570 area, this letter expressed the opinion that the market was in a buying range and the August high of 622 would be bettered in the early part of 1963 and the average would reach the 650- 685 area. On Friday, just a little over a ntonth later, the Industrials reached the lower part of the 650-685 objective at the intra-day high of 649.26. We certainly did not expect the advance to be as rapid as it has been. There has been no reaction worthy of the name since the average reached its intra-dal low on October 24th at 549.65. However, despite the steepness of the rise, our technical work indicates no important distributional pattern. Of course, a technica.l.correction.of expectation, but such a correction would probably be limited to the upper part of the 620-600 support area. Our opinion remains the same except for timing. The Industrials should reach the upper part of the 650-685 area, but probably by January, if not bE\fore. In trading accounts, we continue to advise holding commitments and adding to holdings on weakness. We have expressed the thought in the past that the present rise from the May-June lows would probably not result in new highs in the averages above the 741. 30 high of 1961. We believe the market is in a broad consolidating period similar to 1946-1949. The sequal to the 1946-1949 consolidation period was the 1949-1961 bull market that advallced from 160 to 741 in a twelve-year period. Obviously, a comparable rise is not to tie expected in the next major bull market. The stock market in 1949 was in the most drastically undervalued position in our entire financial history. However, by 1964, or we would expect the market to move substantially above the 1961 level. 0 In the interim, the market will probably havli' e' ica rlance, do some more work in a wide trading area between, roughly, nd he market reached a major top in 1961 at 741. Usually, a ra af an important top consists of three waves, a down movement followed b ar ase, and then a later downward se arket,-we-believe-the'first'wave-was . completed at the May-June or upward wave. It will proba that the market is now in the second we\'8y another downward wave into the 600-525 range before the or Jj ket is completed. To truly un t market, it is necessary to break the market down into the action of indi . u gr s. While the averages and many individual groups reached their highs just about a ye go, many other groups had reached their highs three to five years earlier, and ha een in lengthy bear markets for a long period of time. Included in ,this classification are some of the largest and most important groups in the economy such as Airlines, Aluminums, Automobiles. Building. Chemical, Copper, Machinery, Oils, Paper, Railroads, Steel and Textiles. Some of these groups, like the oils, have already completed a three to five-year consolidation period and have, from a technical viewpoint, formed sufficiently large bases over the past few years to indicate levels well above their previoils highs. On the other hand, the groups that reached their highs with the market aver ages only a year ago probably have to undergo a longer period of consolidation. After the present rally is completed, these groups will probably fall, back to a test of their May-June lows. In the 'meantime, other than.a.minorteclmical correctton the general market. Most individual issues still have not reached their upside potentials. The leaders in the present rise have been the blue chip issues of the larger, cyclical com- panies. We would expect this type of leadership to continue. Groups that have not yet ad- vanced sharply, but have attractive technical patterns, include Machine Tools, Mail Order, Paper, Rails and Textiles. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Ind. 644.87 Dow-Jones Rails 135. 15 ThiB market letter Is not, and under 110 circumstances IS to be construed itS, an offer to lIell or a flolicitntlOll to buy any seCUrities relet'red 'to herem The Information contained herein 18 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness nnd the iurnlshml! thereof 18 not. nnd undel no Cllcumstances IS to be construed 8S, 8 reprCllenta4 tlOn by Walston Co. Inc All expresSions of opInion are subject to chnnJ,e Without nohce Walston 8 Co. Inc. and Officers, Directors, Stockholders Dnd Employees thereof, purchaue, sellnnd may have an Interest In the SecUritIes mentwncrf heleln. This market letter IS IIltended ond Iresented merely a6 n ..eeneral. Informal commentary on day to day market news and not ao; a complete Additinnnlm(ol'mntlon Ith to any SeCtllltlCll rC!fcrred to herein will be furnished upon request ., 301 ,

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 30, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 30, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 30, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

I Walston &Co. Mrm!er. Xrl(' York Stork Exchan/e NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS November 30, 1962 At the week's intra-day high.of 655.95, the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached deeper into the lower part ofoUr'650- 685 upside potential. The Rail average, at 138. 69, was also close to the overhead supply in the 140 -150 area. However, most technical indicators show no signs of intermediate-term deterioration. Profit-taking might result in a moderate decline but, at this stage of the market pattern, such a correction would probably be limited to the 640-630 area. The advance from the October 24th intra-day low of 549.65 has been extremely rapid. In the short period of twenty-five trading days, the Industrial average has advanced 106 points or almost 20. In addition, the recovery from the June low has been quite dramatic. In five months, the average has recovered-60 of the 216-point decline from the November, 1961 intra-day high of 741. 30 to the June intra-day low of 524.55. The recovery in the Dow- Jones Industrial average, and in the Standard & Poor's Industrial index, points up the advan tage of owning quality stocks during periods of market uncertainty. Both of these averages consist of better grade companies which have outperformed the general market during most of the year. While General Motors, Standard Oil of New Jersey, duPont, and other blue chip issues, are near the year's highs, many overexploited glamour issues have staged only rela tively minor recoveries from their lows. While the advance from the June lows has been extremely rapid, it fits into the histo- rical pattern. However, it is necessary to go quite far back into stock market history for comparison. The 29 decline in the Industrial average from November to June was the steep est decline since the 50 decline twenty-five years ago in period from 1949 to 1961 was all part of a broad twelve-year bull market with m modest declines. The worst decline was the 20 drop in 1957. Also, a u r i n, t ntire 1949-1961 pe- riod was the wave of a very long-term, five-wa e war ement that will eventuall carry to much hIgher levels. The market d ajor top in 1961 and is now in the second wave of the broad long-term up Thi cond wave is a consolidating and phase that ec It must be compared to the self, was a long-term correctr e of the 1929 to 1949 period which, in it- There i s twenty-year period between 1929 and 1949. In the table below we v recent decline and recovery with the initial decline an recovery in 1929-19 1 3 38 and 1946-1949. High Date L Date Decline High Date Time Recovery 386.10 Sept.1929 195.59 Aug. 1937 Nov. 1929 50 297.25 April1930 5 mos. Mar. 1938 50 158.90 Nov.1938 8 mos. 53 60 213.30 May 1946 160.49 Oct. 1946 25 194.49 June 1948 20 mos. 64 741. 30 Nov. 1961 524.55 June 1962 29 To date 655.95 Nov. 1962 5 mos. 60 The 1929 declipe of 50, and the 53 recovery of the decline in 1930, was followed by a sharply lower low.' The Industrial declined to 40.56 in July, 1932. We believe the entire 1929-1932 phase can be excluded from our comparison. The background and stage of the market pattern are not in any sense comparable with the present situation. The other two examples are much more comparable to the present pattern. It will be noted that the per- centage recovery from the low is about the same as the present recovery. The 1937 decline was, of course, much.more severe .than ,.which is more comparable to the 1946-1949 pattern. The subsequent action of the market after each recovery was com- pleted, also is informative. In the 1946-1949 period, the low of 160.49 reached in the initial decline was never violated, but it was tested at 160.62 almost three years later in June,1949 Somewhat comparable action occurred in the 1937-1938 phase. The low of the initial decline held for four years and even then was broken only moderately in April, 1942 after Pearl Harbor and the initial bad war news. The 1942 low was 92.69, compared to the 97.46 low four years earlier. This action, on two comparable occasions, leads to the conclusion that the next correction in the present market will hold above the 1962 low of 524.55. Consider- ingthe market pattern, it may not go below the 600-550 level. However, a somewhat larger consolidation periodis''PrababiYi.lI1eedeu,before the start of a new major bull market. Dow-Jones Ind. – 649. 30 Dow-Jones Rails – 138.97 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Th1'l nlurkct letter \'1 not, nnd undel no Clrcumbtnnce; 18 to be ns, un offet to sell 01 R !whcltntwn tn llllY nny t dell cd \0 he! em The lnfm mahan ('ontnmcd herein IS not f,runrrml(''d ns to UCI'Urnl)' or Rnli the the eof \.. nut, anrl und(i nil ('11 ('tlllh.tnnl c… hi to be (,lint-tilled ab, n relll hun hy Wnillton & Co Inc, All expreSlon f tlPlDlUn nre to rhHIl).'(, wlthut 1IlitHe Wahtn & CII, 1m', IInl1 OFTlcel'll, DIlCdI!!, Stoclholdcl!l nnd Employce!; thcreof, plilchnse, sell und may ha\'e un lDt(,lcst 111 the IIc(,lIrillCH mcntll)ncr1 helem Thlb milihet JettCI II! mtendcll nnd .)rellented merely nl! a lo!cnelnl, Inrolmnl cummentnry on (luy to (In) mnrket ncwl! nnd Ilol a complete Ilnllly.. A,i,litlrlllfli mfUlmntlon …. Ith IC-IIIClt to !lily ..(Clll'.tICI! I cf('1lC' to hClcm will he fUl u,pon rcqucst \\), J01

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 07, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 07, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - December 07, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

/\r,' W—-a–l-s-Itnocn—&—C–o. .111'1111,1''' .\'fll' 'ol'k Stock E.rrhan.Qe NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO CO…. ST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO COpy TABELL'S MARKET LETTER . December 7, 1962 Despite the fact that the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached a new intra-day high at 658.76, the market appears to be losing some of lts upside momentum and our rate of change index has been moving slowly downward since mid-November. This is entirely nor- mal technical action. It could hardly be expected tha t the market could continue the rate of advance witnessed in the early part of the upswing from the October 25th lows. Probably some sidewise action is to be expected over the shorter term. There appears to be a con- siderable amount of funds available for yea r-e n d investment and it probably will hold up prices during December and the early part of January. Our upside potential rema ins the same as six weeks ago. We would expect the market to reach at least a temporary top early in 1963-in-the 650-685 range-'—— —-.,,- The swiftness of the advance and the remarkable change in investor confidence since the Cuban affair has been quite unprecedented. However, we do not, frone a technical viewpoint, believe that this is the start of a major market advance. Most stocks have not yet formed a sufficient base to indicate new highs. Of the 1800 graphs of individual stocks, only about 20 have-formed a sufficient accumulation base to sugge'st new high territory. On the other hand, 70 to 75 of the same number of graphs indicate technically that they have reached their downside objectives. If both of these statements prove to be correct, it would appear that the general market reached its low in May-June, but that a longer period of con- solidation is needed. A little over two years ago, on November 4, 1960, we recommended a list of twent low-priced speculative stocks selling under 20 a share. ditional five issues. It was stressed that these issues be b g t 1961 we added an ad'1)ackage in order to provide the necessary diversification in a ed below. Adj. 12/7/62 f h s t . The list is publish- 1\ Vi Adj. 12/7/62 Allied Paper Price 105/8 Close 17 3/8 (4) J 'ser. Price 83/4 Close 63/4 l/a – –. Burlington Ind. 183/8) Manhattan Shirt 181/21(2) 233/4 Campbell Chib. 5 7 8 \1 National Can 7 3/4 (2) 12 3/4 Chlcago,Mll.St.P G,)3l0 Northwest Air. 153/4 381/2 Commer. Sol. 18 8) 1/8 Pacific Petrol. 10 1/ 4 11 3/8 Divco-Wayne 163 185/8 Rayonier, Inc. 155/8 (2) 21 Flying Tiger 14 15 7/8 Rohr Corp. 15 18 Foote Mineral 19 12 5/8 Servel, Inc. 12 1/8 9 1/2 Freuhauf Trail. 183/4 25 Sun Chemical 135/8 93/4 Getty Oil 141/4 171/2 Victoreen Inst. 16 (1)(2) 91/8 Intern'l Packers 15 3/4 17 3/4 (1) Price 3/3/61. (2) Adj. for stock dividends. (3) Adj. for exchange for Lear, Inc. and stock dividend. (4) Adj. for Phillips-Eckhardt Electronic received as stock dividend. It will be noted that the action of the list has been extremely selective with price performances ranging from a 147 gain in Northwest Airlines to a 48 loss in Victoreen Instruments. The list as a whole shows a 15 average appreciation. TIns is a bit better than the action of the Dow-Jones Industrials which showed a 6 average- gain'over the same time periods. The indivldual issues show diverse indications at the moment. A number of issues have moved above the 20 level. Of these, three issues continue to indicate above average action and are bemg transferred to our regular recommended list. They are' Burlington Ind. Fruehauf Trailer, and Northwest Alrlines. Of the lower-priced issues, we would retain as speculations – Campbell Chibougamau, Flying Tiger, Foote Mineral, International Packers, National Can and Pacific Petroleum. The remaimng issues could be switched into those listed above. In the case of Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul, it could be switched into Chicago North Western, if a tax loss is needed. The low-priced list will be enlarged when the occasion warrants. Our recommended list of hlgher-priced issues will be reviewed shortly. Dow-Jones Ind. 652.10 Dow-Jones Rails 140.27 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ,11,,r ,. .TIlh I1l11ll,!'! lett!! 11,,1 '11101 IIn,I.. no ('11 h (n h( (n .. l,,!!'1 .1'0, I!' -oIf, I …..ll ' I ..II It,'\I1I to 1,\11 .Ill .. Ut II Ii' 'l,r''!1 Ld to 111'1(')11 11H' InfIIll,II,1 (11,11111,('01 hCICl1l 11,,1 c!illl,nll'..-d ., …. \u … , III ,II \ HI .. lId tilt' f'hlll''' 11( .lIlll'l1Id,, '10 ,'.. 1' t I,, ., ….. \ (11, I,y lIbton C.. I,,, -\11 p.(…… 'I1… oj ,'PH,on ,. ,Ulol'\ (,. ,h,, \\.Ih,,\ ',,'IIIl' '\.,I… tlu &. (I. I, .I'\ OIT,,' 01,,01 I.nll'\'lV('t ther(,l)f, pIII,h '–('……. 11 .11111 III IV 11.'\ ,n Intl'l.-t III I hI' (,111', 1110'1111 11,1 h'-II' '11 … 'll.,,\,,\ \. II. I h 'IItL'!I.h.',\ ,,I plt'–llll … 1 11\(11) ….., ,I II. ,'III rll IIl11l 'Hmment.11 y n d.,\ (0 d.1I Ill, hn ''\\- t .h ., ('1,1 tt' II 11\ -,-. \d, ' d ,r,,, III It 11111 \\ Ith It''\,('' I I 111\ ….., \II .t I (, ',cd tn hu COlli III 1,1.- fUI 1I,..,Il'u 1l.POIi (tiled \\ \ ,III

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 14, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 14, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - December 14, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

– –,– Walston &- Co. Memher. SfIC rod.. Siock Euha1lJe NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER December 14, 1962 The market, for the first time since the advance started on October 23rd, failed to reach a weekly high for the move. As we noted in the last letter, our rate of change index has been moving slowly downward and is indicating a loss of upside momentum. The index is now below zero. However, would not expect the market to move much lower at this juncture. A further decline to around the 630 level would bring this short term rate of change index down to an oversold area. This week's intra-day low was 638.88 on Tuesday. Such a development would be normal technical actionafter the steep rise otover 100 points from the October 23rd low. –The market will probably move up-ward again toward the later part of the month,and the rise should continue somewhat deeper into the 650-685 area which we consider to be the upside objective for this stage of the advance. While the favorable outcome of the Cuban crisis undoubtedly furnished the spark for the advance from the October 23rd low, the basic groundwork for the advance was being laid between July and October. Many investors, both institutional and private, increased their liquidity during this period by selling stocks. As a result, there was a sizable amount of money awaiting equity investment when the Cuban crisis reached an early stage of development. This was indicated by the favorable technical pattern of the market. However, when the rise started, it was so sudden and broad that probably a sizable portion of these funds remain uninvested. This will be a prop under the market during December and January. Another factor that has contributed toward the cut in 1963. Some cold water has been thrown on pos I bring about a tax revision until a later date would appointment, but the outcome will not be known untiIing tbe possibility of a tax ly. Failure to es m some market dis- The outlook for the market remains e a few individual issues indicate higher been, from a technical build up enough of a base to indicate a major advance. Such a devel . a further consolidating period. At the mo- ment, it would t 1 e inside year and that neitte r the high or low of 1962 will be reac .n act, in our opinion, the probabilities favor a trading area that will hold tfi c nes of, roughly, 575 and 700 for the entire year. This is merely an extension 0 ou mion that the market reached a major top in 1961 at 741. 30 and a major bottom in at 524.55. These levels may not be penetrated for a consider- able period of time. n fact, it is possible that the 525 level may never be penetrated. In the meantime, the market will remain in a broad trading range and eventually, in our opinion, will break out on the upside of this reaccumulation area. We are continually repeating this projected pattern because we believe it should be in the background of every investment decision regardless of whether the individual is main ly interested in an intermediate-term six-months capital gain, or a long-term investment. To those interested in intermediate swings, we would expect excellent trading opportunities with the market probably swinging back and forth in a relatively wide area during the year. To the longer-term investorJthe implication is somewhat different. 1963 may present the last opportunity to build up a long-term investment portfolio at a price level fairly close to the levels reached over six years ago when the average sold at 525. To the in- vestor, our advice for 1963 is buy on weakness in contrast to our admonition to sell on strength in 1962. As for the stocks to buy, probably the sound, blue chip equities of the largest and strongest companies will prove to be the best vehicles in the early stage of the long-term advance. Dow-Jones Ind. 648.09 Dow-Jones Rails 137.64 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. mnrkct ctlA!r ,,, !lul and unde. 10 CirCtlm.. tnnces Ib tu he cnn'-tillcd \…. nn IIffcl Itt !-('II I n ..IILIt.1111J1l til huy ,In CCI11 II ……. 1('fci 1('II 1 hel Cll\. The mfu! Ill.lt,,,n (Olnltllned herem Ib nut !.U'lrantccd n… tu nCCllrlll (11 'lnd the fUllllhlllj.! IhN ('r ,.. 1101 nnd IIn,I(1 111 ClIllll11-tnnt c.. ' 10 he On..tlIlCc! 11 I eJlI t!m b' \\ IIb,ton &. Cu, In(' All .. of OPiIIIln fll e -'\1I1J('('t tu (h,lIll.!' \\ Ilhl'lIt nII((' &. C .. , 1m .lI1tl 0f11('('1', DII cdI' .L11d lher('Of 11IIIch,\-.e m,IY h.I\(' fln mtelClt In the -.ellllltlC-' mC'lItlt.ne,1 h(I('1I1 '1111-' 111nl1..('t \('ItCI 1-. Hlten.lct\IIIH\llle-.ente.\ melc!) II J.!Cllel.1i In COl m.ll cmnmentnlY n In to elll 11l1lrkct .HIII not 1\.. n 'uml'lclc ,\.1.1111111,11 Infl I1wllun \\Ith lC'-l'C(t ,,, 1,1\ IcfulC,i tll hCICl1I \\111 be fUI m-.hcU tlJ)on I equCloI \\ \ ,01 –

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 21, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 21, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - December 21, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. In.c .11e III he, 8 XCII' 1'()'1. Stock E.rclla1lge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OffiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER December 21, 1962 During the past week, General Motors reached its highest price in history and Standard Oil of New Jersey sold at the highest price level since 1959, Despite the strength in these and other blue chip'issues, most of the leaders of the 1961 speculative binge, the second and third grade quality growth'Yissues, were selling within 100/0 of'the May-June lows, It certainly proved sound advice in June to switch out of the discredited low-grade glamour stocks into the high-quality investment issues that were available at near or be- low the average price-to-earnings ratios of the past ten years, During the past month, the various averages have held in a narr'ow trading area. The intra-day high in the Dow-Jones Industrials was reached early in December at 658.76 and the low of the month was reached this week af 636. 88-T,he'cross currents of 'tax-loss selling and year-end investment demand usually result in an irregular market pattern during December. These factors were augmented this year by the steep rise since the October 23rd low ana the need for some consolidation, but the large amount of uninvested funds in institu- tional accounts has acted as support. Obviously, ;'ost of this buying has gone into higher quality issues. Our technical objective for the price advance from the October low of 549.65 was the 650-685 level. The lower part of this range has been reached, but we believe the Industrial average Will move above the early December high during January. A sizable number of techmcal patterns or individual stocks suggest moderately higher price levels and no distributional top pattern of importance has as yet been built up. Market strength in January should be used to lighten commitments in issues with below-average prospects. We are in the process of checking our Our recommended list of issues mentioned in this letter is s' i05 to a year-end review rna' ly for the individua who is interested in capital appreciation over a i nth longer, We also On occasion, drawn attention to issues where the mai ractio in above-average income with modest long-term capital appreciation following American Can Price 45 44 W 1 in this category are the Price Yield pensol. Natural Gas 54 4.3 American Smelting 56 Dominion Tar Chem. 16 5.0 Anderson Clayton Borg Warner Canadian Pacific Chicago Pneu. Tool 27 4 .5 5.0 Great West. Sugar Holly Sugar International Harvester Swift & Co. 34 31 49 39 5. 3 4.5 4.9 4.1 We consider t e issues suitable holdings for individuals interested mainly in income and modest appreciation, and advise their retention. However, as the main objective of our list is capital appreciation, we will no longer mention these issues in our list. Five issues show a gain from the original recommendation, four show a loss, and the remainder' are about even. Overall, the group has shown slightly less favorable action than the averages. We are also removing six issues from the recommended list. They are Colgate, Palmolive (43), Dome Mines (24), Insurance Co. of N. A. (93), McIntyre Porcupine l41), Minne polis Honeywell (85) and United Biscuit (39). Three of these issues show a profit from ori- ginally recommended levels, One a loss and two are about even. On an over.all basis, they show a slight profit. . , As replacements, we suggest the following issues in our recommended list Burlington Ind. (26), Cluett Peabody (45), Continental Insurance (59), Gulf,Oil (40), Inter- national Minerals & Chem. (4l), McKesson & Robbins (39), Reynolds Metals (23), or Varian Associates (34). The following issues are being placed in the low-priced, speculative list, Audio Devices (11), Chicago & North Western (12) El Paso Natural Gas (16), Great Western Financial (17), Mesabi Trust (11), MIcrowave Assoc. (12), Murphy Corp. (24), Reeves Bros. (H), Seaboard Fmance (17) and Sperry Rand (13). Purchase IS advIsed. The complete recommended list will be available from your Customers' RepreElen- tative after January 1st. A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL Dow-Jones Ind. 646.41 Dow-Jones Rails 138.96 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'l mnrkcl IcttRr not nnd under no IS to be conll lied 11'1, nil ffer ttl …('11 til n …h( !t!lllnn tn Inl nn)' '('('ltl ItH… I ('fen eel lo hel ('Ill 1 he mflll mati,, ('ontnmcfl herem ); not ).\If\lllntced ns to nccurilO !II ('lnlplctcnt'''!1 nn,\ the fill nhhllllr thel euf h lint, alHl lin. Ie) nO! (II to he (un..lllll'(\ 0-, a 11'1'1 c.,cntn- tllln hy V.'ul'lton &. Co Inc All e,preSlon,; .If lHnum (IIC … uhl.'t tu I'h,III)!(' wllh.,ut nlue Wnl … tn & Cu, Int, IIn.1 Offl('el', nuecl. .., Stu.i-.hultlcl unn Eml'lny(C!; therroe, 'ell nnd may h,l\e nn Intel cst In the 'eIHIIIC men It. nerl hell'llI Thl- mnrl…'1 I,-\t,-r I…. IntcnIt.-tlnntl Ie–enletl ml'll'1y II …. ,I ).ll'nern1. Informnl cnmmental on c1ny to dny mnri-.I't lind nt tiS tI ('omplclc ,lIlnlYh A,I,hlln,11 IIIflnl.ltlnn Ith le'!,clt In ,lny cCIllhe– I ('f(,1 led to hClcllI \II hc u,pon request \\.\ ,l\ .;

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 28, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 28, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - December 28, 1962
View Text Version (OCR)

r;- .' Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Xl/(' rOIl, Stock E.rclio.1Uj' NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OHICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER December 28, 1962 For some years now, we have studied the famlliar seasonal tendency of the stock market to stage a year-end rally, and lt has been the custom of this letter each December to pomt out some of the conclus ions that can be denved from a study of thlS phenomenon. Last year we expanded this study to include every year since the Dow-Jones Industnal was first computed in 1897, and suggested that an exhaustive study of chart pattern over the past slxty-five years indicated tha t such a rally, however minuscule, had invar- iably taken place. The probability exists that the rally began this year at the December -19th low of 636.88 in the Dow-Jones Industrials. A number of interesting facts about market (1) As stated above, an ldentifiable year-end rally has taken place in every year since 1897. This rally has often been of great magnitude with advances as great as 280/0 having been recorded. It has also, On occaSlOn, conhnued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. However, on other occasions it has been of only a few days duration, reachmg a top extremely early in the year. This occurred, of course, in 1962 when the high was reached in the very first day of the year. (2) ,There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up and late when it has been down. If the rally truly began on December 19th this year, th1S tendency will agam hold gOOd. ' (3) The important tlung to watch in connection with market actlOn in the early months of the year is the low for the prevlOus December'S been broken in 39 years out of the past 64. In 23 of these 39 cases, it w s br nuary or February, and since 1937 it has never been broken later than acT ,lf the market is able D rto hold above its December low for the first 2 1/2 m n s of t ew year, chances become good that thlS low will not be broken 961, e emb'er 1960 low was never penetrated. (4) whee 'he eo h;okc 'he been downward two-thlrds 1S a typical case '- (5) The it an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an a 0 ore from the December lows has been by an upward or neutral k in the 31 years that such an advance nas occurred. An advance of less than 1 the December low before an 1dentifiable correction takes place has been follow ya downward market in 22 of 33 years. (6) The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is also important. For example, in 17 years the ra lly has continued into March or later. In 15 of these 17 years the eventual trend was upward. Again, 1961 is a case in point. This leads to some rather interesting conclusions, and makes the December low of 636.88 in the Dow an interesting figure to watch. ( In Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index the low was made earlier in December at 61. 28.) If the rally peters out early in January, and the aforementioned lows are broken, there is a strong presumption that 1963 will see a weak market. On the other hand, if the rally continues without an identifiable reversal until March, or if the averages advance 100/0 (to 700 in the Dow or 68 in the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index), it would be a possible'indication of an upward or neutral trenafor the year. Thus, the action of the various averages in relation to the December low. should be studied very carefully. Such action may well provide the first clue as to the action of tQe market in 1963. A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL Dow-Jones Ind. 651. 43 Dow-Jones Ralls 140.00 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Note Our revis.ed recomruE!n.ded lists of stocks, mentioned in las.t week's letter, maybe obtained from your Walston Account Executive at the end of next week. I hh lll.lll.ct lctte ,-. flot ,In,\ undc! nO to he ('''n tlllc,! lIll ,,If!!1 I ..II ' 11 … IIlI\,III1l In .Hl -.(' lilttle.. t hel ('In The InC, m.lt,n I fllllIllCd hcrCln nnt 1.'11I111\t,,,,\ II tu ,It( 111 H') ()! nnd fUI IIhllllll. tnl.'f 01, ,nt! IIndc, I , ,11111,111 ( I' In ,,,,,1111.1 ,I I C\ c'cntll' l'n \'Y \\'Jljton &. en hH' All lit \III1n .1' It!. \ t riMn,;c '\ltn,,1 ,,1 II l' \\',t!11 .. ( hI Ill, Offllel DII'(,,, SId,hhlcl ,.1101 I mp!nvn', therN!, )l(II.h.IC cll \nd mlY 1I.c ,III Illiere… t III the Illt'tll tlcd hII'1I1 Ihl' Illlllh.el lettm ' Intellt\cll .wel pleCllted mel ply 1\ ,I I.Pllc1,,1 I,,'uIlIfllllll.tl 'mment,lI) ,I d.IY tn d.l) m,IIke 11(\ .. UIlI! lIt ll\ fI ('mplet, .lnlll, … t\,ldlIT1,t! Inf, m,I,,,n ,th Ipe'l III ,111\ –'llIltH' I.f.llcd lu helclll 1\ ill I,c fllln, … 11,11'1 lelucl \\, ,Ill

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 31, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 31, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - December 31, 1962 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - December 31, 1962 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - December 31, 1962 page 3
View Text Version (OCR)

Audio Devices Close 12/28/62 11 1/2 Campbell Chibougamau 3 3/S Chicago & North West -12 7/S EI Paso Natural Gas Flying Tiger 16 1/2 14 7/S Foote Mineral 10 1/2 Great West Financial Intern'l Packers Mesabi Trust Microwave Murphy Corp. National Can IS 3/S 17 3/4 11 lis 13 l/S 19 11 7/S -acific Petroleum Reeves Bros. 10 7/8 12 3/S Seaboard Finance 17 1/4 Sperry Rand 13 1/2 Quality B C C B C B B- B B. B.. B- B '10 Yield 6.1 1.0 stk. 4. 2 4. 2 2. 6 3.9 5. S Comment Hold for 20. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 19. Buy-Hold Hold for 23-25.Hold for Income. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 21. Hold for 22 -24. Buy-Hold December 31,1962 Edmund W. Tabell Walston & Co. Inc. 74 Wall Street New York 5, N. Y. QUALITY AND LONG-TERM GROWTH Close 12/28/62 Caterpillar Tractor Corning Glass Crown Zellerbach DuPont General Motors 37 159 1/2 45 1/2 238 3/4 57 5/8 Gulf Oil Intern'l Bus. Mach. Minnesota Mining 39 5/8 392 1/2 52 3/8 Penney, J. C. 42 3/4 Royal Dutch Standard Oil of 1'. J. 43 5/8 59 1/8 Woolworth 64 Q'uaHty A A AA A A A A A A A A- Comment 2.7 Hold. Buy at 35-33. 1.3 Hold. Buy at 150. 4.0 Buy at 45-43. 3. 2 Hold. Buy at 230-220. 5.2 Hold. Buy at 55. 4.0 Buy – Hold O. 7 Hold 1.5 Buy-Hold 3. 5 Hold 3.6 Buy-Hold 4. 2 Hold 3.9 Buy-Hold December 31, 1962 EDMUND W. TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST PRICE A -;QRECIA TICN Close 12/28/62 Air -roducts Allied Chemical Alside American Optical American Viscose Armstrong Rubber Atchison, Top. & S. F. Beaunit Mills 63 1/2 44 27 1/2 61 1/4 61 1/4 34 24 5/8 20 3/4 Burlington Ind. Burroughs Cluett 'eabody 26 28 3/8 45 3/8 Collins & Aikman 33 3/4 Columbia ictures 23 1/ 8 Consolidation Coal 35 Continental Insurance Diamond National 593/8 46 1/ 2 Electric Storage Battery 49 5/8 Ex-CeU-O 41 3/4 First Charter 31 3/4 Fruehauf Trailer 24 3/4 General Mills 31 3/4 Great Northern 'aper 34 5/8 Intern'l Min. & Chem. 41 Intern'l Tel & Tel 42 3/8 Kern County Land 73 5/8 Kerr McGee 36 3/8 Korvette, E. J. 28 5/8 Louisiana Land 72 1/8 McDermott, J. Ray 23 1/ 4 McKesson & Robbins 40 1/4 Newmont Mining 65 1/2 North Amer. Aviation 66 7/8 Northern Dacific 39 7/8 Northwest Airlines 38 anhandle Eastern 68 1/8 ;hillips eetroleum 49 1/2 Raytheon 27 7/8 Reynolds Metals 23 3/4 Schlumberger 66 Seaboard Airline 31 1/2 Stevens,J. -. 29 5/8 Union Bag-Camp 35 1/4 U. S. lywood U. S. Vitamin Universal Gil rod. Varian Associates 45 23 1/2 39 5/8 33 5/8 Quality B A- B B A- E B B B BB A- B B A B A B B B A A- A AA- B B B A- A B B B B B AA B B Yield O. 3 4. 1 2.0 3.3 3.3 4. 1 5.9 5. 8 4. 6 3. 5 3.4 3. 6 4. 8 4. 6 3.7 3. 8 4. 6 3. 8 stk. 6. 1 3. 8 2. 9 3. 9 2.4 3. 3 2. 7 3. 1 3.0 3. 7 3. 7 3. 0 5. 5 2. 1 2. 9, 3. 9 stk. 2.1 0.9 5.0 5. 1 4. 3 4.4 3.0 1.9 Comment Hold. Buy at 60. Hold. Buy at 42 -40. Buy-Hold Hold for 75-80. Hold for 75-80. Hold for 40-42. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 35. Buy-Hold Hold for 40 – 45. Hold for 32. Buy-Hold Hold for 70-75. Hold for 53. Hold. Buy at 47-45. Buy-Hold Hold. Buy at 30-28. Hold. Hotd for 40. Hold for 50-55. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold. Buy at 35-33 Hold for 35-40. Hold for 85-90. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Hold. Buy at 65-60. Hold for 44. Hold. Buy at 35-30. Hoid. Buyat 65-60. Hold. Buy at 48-45. Hold for 35-40. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 37. Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 30-32 Buy-Hold Hold-Buy at 33-30. December 31, 1962

Download PDF