Viewing Month: May 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 04, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 04, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - May 04, 1962
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Walston &Co. lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 4, 1962 At. Tuesday's intra-day low of 655.14, the marJ.-.et became at least temporarily oversold. There were 959 declining stocks on Monday and only 182 advances.' This cli- mactic action had been preceded by 837 and 73B declines on the two previous days. Volu on the decline increased to over four million shares on Friday and Monday, and reached 5, 100,000 shares on Tuesday. The decline carried down very close to the top of the 650 610 area which, in our opinion, is the lowest possible downside objective indicated by te h nical work. The breadth index, which has been in a downtrend for a year, obviously reached new low territory. However,- this index, whiCli-haS15een-actingworse- than the market s'ince May, is now acting like the market. This is a necessary prelude to better- than-market action. Of course, no long-term trend change for the better has yet occurr This will take further time. Since Tuesday's low, the Industrial Average has rebounded back to an intra-day high of 679.20. r,Tormal technical action calls for a one-third to on – half retracement of the 72-point decline from the March intra-day high of 727. 14. This would call for an advance to 679 to 691, which has been about reached. Drobably at least a testing of the low is needed before a turn in the long-term trend is indicated. This letter has been cautious since last Summer. We envisioned an extremely selective market with a minimum upside objective of 725 and a possible 750-775. A high of 741. 30 was reached in November. Cn the downside we could see a possible 650. Of more importance, we felt that individual issues could show extremely diverse action with some issues acting much better than the market and others much worse than the ma – keto Our recommendations were concentrated on t better-than- market action and we advised avoiding the glamour and 0 I 1 soes selling at extrem high earnings multiples. Thoughts were s 11 n n ength. The decline in the market has changed our Qifing. -e uld now be inclined to be a buyer on weakness. The rally 's y nlar the potential top from 650 0.Q the Dow–Jo.!1esndllstrlal average to 65 .1 It 1S rely.possible-that the average will work somewhat lower, but in lIcks we have probably seen the wors of the decline. We cannot bear market at the moment. The mar- ket became technically vulne b e ridiculous overvaluation that occurred in a great many iss s r 1 1 has slowly been correcting itself for the past year. The cor . climactic phase. Usually, the market has to find a reason for a neede e nic orrection. The U. S. Steel-Kennedy fiasco was as good a reason as any. If it a been that, it would have been something else. Only a some- what unusual news nt was needed to tip the balance. As far as individual stocks are concerned, the market breaks down roughly into three patterns. In the first group are issues that stiU indicate fairly substantial declines. This group is growing smaller. In the second classification are issues that have declined substantially and have reached or are close to downside objcctives. These issues may need a long time to base out and it is probably wiser to wait until their technical action improves. These issues, however, should be attractive to patient, long-term investors provided that the fundamentals are attractive. In the third category are the issues that I have acted better than the market. In most cases, these issues'have already built up I substantial base patterns over a period of time and are in a position to move ahead when, the market climate improves. A list of twenty-two stocks that, in our opinion, fall into this category, was included in last week's letter. They should-be bought during periods of market weakness. In addition, we mention Cluett Peabody (43 1/4), Ex-CeU-O (44) Murphy Corp. (23), 1\orthern '''acific (37 l/B) and United B1scuit (44 5/8). Allor-these issues are on the recommended list. Would also add Container Corp. (26 7/B), Libbey- Cwens-Ford (541/2) and National Acme (553/4) on market weakness. For long-term speculation we suggest Chrysler Corp. (51 l/B) and Eastern Airlines (23 5/ B. Dow-Jones Ind. 671. 20 Dow-Jones Rails 140. 68 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTOi\T & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or n soitCltation to bu)' nny sccuntJes r.cfcrred to herem The mformatlOn contained herem IS not guan' ntced to accuracy or completeness and tIle furmshlllg thereof IS not, and under no ell cumstances IS to be c(lTI!.trued as, n tlOn by WnistOI1 & Co Inc All (',,preSSlOns of opmlOn arc ,ublect to Without notice \Valo;ton & Co. Inc, and OffIcers. Dtrctors, Stockholders and Fmployees thereof Bell nnd may have an mterest In the securltlC mentioned herem ThiS market letter IS intended and prescti merely as n general, on da to fillY market news and not as a complete analYSIS AddltlOllnl Information Jth rC5)lCct to anY' securlhes r(,lctred to herein Will be furnished Hilon rCfluest '\'\ 11 301 ————)

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 11, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 11, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - May 11, 1962
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Walston &Co. Inc Mernbe,'s New YOTk Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILE COpy TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 11, 1962 The market, in our opinion, has entered a broad buying area. Our technical work has indicated for some time that the 650-605 area in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average was the down3ide objective of the distributional top pattern formed in the 740-720 area during the past year. At the week's intra-day low of 637.45, the Industrial Average had entered the upper part of this 650-605 area. Just how deep into the area the average maJ carry is not ascertainable at the moment. However. the market has now entered over- sld territory on one first Octobex, – Also, an increasing number of individuaIStocks are -reaching or are close -to downside– objectives on our technical work. These last two factors suggest to us that the correct market policy at the moment is to buy on balance on weakness. We would not follow strength until our breadth index reverses the downward trend that has been in effect sinc Maya year ago. The breadth index reached a new low this week along with the averages. The start of a broad advance will not be signalled until the breadth index begins to act better than the Industrial Average. Before this happens, the average will probably have to back and fill within the broad confines of the 650-605 area for a considerable period of time in order to form a new base pattern. Contrary to general opinion, a broad advance does not start from the initial rally after a selling climax. Worthwhile advances of long- term or intermediate-term significance usually start after a period of investor discourage' ment and low volume. 'Nhat stocks should be bought when the Industrial Average is in the 650-605 range, There are two alternatives. One is to buy stocks that than the market. This is the policy that this letter has followed for a long When we were cautiou on the general market. Last August, we suggeste!att' s ion of funds in short-term bonds for liquidity, but to keep the bal nv e' situations showing -p-otentials were-reached. resulted in a profit. 2'1.-e U h sales ,ve — when in-r9-61 of which fifty three This to the intermediate-term trader in- terested in ap etrod of six months or longer as well as the long term investor. e r e is to buy stocks of good investment quality that have been acting s th arket but have reached or are near long term downside objectives. Issues have reached new lows for a long period of time. Even if these issues are ased at what turns out to be the low, considerable patience may be required before price advance occurs. Usually, a lengthy period of con- solidation is needed before a new base is formed. Situations of this type are more suit- able for the long term investor who is satisfied about the long term fundamental value and investment quality of the issue. The chemicals are a case in point. Many of these issues reached their highs in 1956-1957 and have declined 300/0 to 500/0. From a technical viewpoint they appear to be at or near major downside potentials. A list of some of these issues follows, together with technical downside objectives and the approximate high reached since 1956. Downside High 1956-1911- Downside High – PrIce Object. 1956'-19Si- – Allied Chem. 43 42-40 67 Monsanto ,4 45-40 69 Amer. otash 43 40 66 Olin Mathieson 33 32 62 Atlas Chem. 18 18 30 ryennsalt 35 30 45 Diamond Alkali 48 50-48 75 Stauffer Chem. 39 40-35 70 Dow Chemical 51 55-50 100 Union Carbide 100 100-90 144 Hercules Powder 42 42-38 55 U. S. Borax 32 30 77 Dow-JoYles Ind. 640. 63 Dow-Jones Rails 24 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter Is not. and under no circumstnnces 15 to be construed as, an offer to sell or R 8olicitatlOn to buy Rny securities referred to herem The mformatIon contained herem is not guaranteed as to nccurocy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof IS not, and under no Clrcum!\tnnces IS to be construed as, a representa- tion by Walston & Co, lnc All e'lpresslons of opinion are suhJeet to chanltc w1thout noticc Walston & Co, lnc, and Officers, D1rectors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, -purchase, sell and may an mterC'lt 1n the securltlC mentioned herem market letter mtenrled and presented merely as a general, mformll,l commentary on day to day market ncwa nnd not as a complete anaLysis AddltlOnal information \I,lth lcspect to any SCCUrItIes reicrre,1 to hercm wJil be furnillhed upon request. .' . \\ N 30l

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 18, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 18, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - May 18, 1962
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FILE COpy Walston &Co. lnc. —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH.lCAGO COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 18, 1962 At Monday's intra-day low of 626.85, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average reached the middle of the 650-605 area which this letter has mentioned for quite some time as the downside objective of the decline from the November high of 741. 30. Two weeks ago this letter changed its overall policy, in effect since August, of selling on strength to buying on weakness into the 650-605 area. This policy should be continued. We consider the 650-605 range as a broad buying area. There mayor may not be some further weakness, but we would not consider it of great technical significance. There is a very good probability, our opinion7 that tl'ie' low inthe IndustriafAverage for on \I'onday. As mentioned in last week's letter, some of our technical graphs entered oversold territory late last week and an increasing number of issues reached downside objectives. Neither our shorter-term nor longer-term breadth indices have as yet -reversed the downtrend that has been in effect for the past year, but there is a distinct probability that the shorter-term index will reverse the February-May downtrend in the very near future. This could be followed by a reversal in the longer-term downtrend on the breadth indices. Until the breadth indices reverse the downtrend, we would confine our buying to periods of weakness within the 650-605 range rather than following strength A rather lengthy period of backing and filling will probably be needed to fulfill the technical requirements of building up a new base pattern. ' the advance is resumed, the leadership will be quite different than that of the 1960-1961 period. During that phase, the leadership was mainly centered in either glamo issues or defensive groups like the foods, tobaccos and ut' more cyclical grou s that reached their highs during the 1956-1957 period did i tle e'tWise during 1960- 1961. They will probably be the leaders of the ! gP s The glamour issues of second and third t ose to ridiculously high – -price s are–fa-c ed;–in' our-opinion,– with- a' er- the-oone-x-t—-seve-ra-i-yeaI'-s. Despite the fact that some have 1 they are still selling at extre el 'RfjJ'. of 0 to 75, considering their quality These issues will find it difficult to have more than sporadic tec 'c a disillusioned holders selling on any sign s of strength and b .i b rs. There will be exceptions, of course, but this type of issu i r a n several years of frustrating swings back and forth in a narrow tradin r B f e highs of 1961 are even approached. This mass hyste' nd over-speculation in certain classes of issues has occurred many times in the It happened on a smaller scale in the uranium issues and the Canadian oil and natural gas issues in the middle 1950s. The aftermath of such specu- lative booms is shown in the price action of the Canadian oils over the past five years. Take .acific .etroleum (13) as an example. Due largely to the long-term dynamic growth possibilities in Canadian oil and gas, and helped by the Suez crisis, 'acific etroleum rose to a high of 39 in mid-1957. At that time, this price was totally un- warranted. By the beginning of 1958, it had declined to 17. The strong 1958 general market advance carried it back to 22, but a slow but steady downdrift to a low of 8 in 1960 followed. During this period, however, oacific 'etroleum built up a fairly sub- stantial base in the 8-15 range. l'Tow, both the fundamentals and the technical pattern suggest opportunities for capital appreciation in 'acific Petroleum and other Canadian oil and natural gas issues. Like the faded lower-grade glamour issues of today, these stocks suffered a drastic price decline. The great difference, however, is in the fact that the Canadian oils have gone through a lengthy period of consolidation and have, from a technical viewpoint, formed sufficient bases to indicate a worthwhile upward move when the general advance resumes. The glamour issues will require a lengthy period before this is accomplished. In speculative accounts, it is suggested that tax losses be taken in the lower-grade glamour issues and the proceeds be switched into anadian oil and natural gas issues. Dow-Jones Ind. 650.70 Dow-Jones Rails 136.32 .2;DMUND W. TAB ELL ;TjALSTCN & CC. INC. – — ThiFl market letter is not. and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to 'lell or a soliCitation to bu) any securities referred to herein The mformatIon contninro herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completencss and the furnlshmg thereof 15 not, and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, n representa- tum by Walston & Co, Inc All expressions of OPlDlOn are subJect to chnnge Without nobce Walston & Co, Inc., and Officers, DIrectors, Stockholders and F.mplo)o'cc'l thereof, purchase, sell and tRay ho.'l.e an Interest m the securities mentloned herem. ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as II general, inrormal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analySIS AddItional mformatIon With respect to any SecUrltlCS lCerrcd to herein Will be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' , – \\;.1 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 25, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 25, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - May 25, 1962
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I' FILE COpy W—-a–l-s-tIoncn–&–C–o–. Membe's New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH.jCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 25, 1962 The downtrend continues. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average declined to a new in- tra-day low of 606. 18 on Friday. The Rail and utility Averages also reached new low territory as did the Standard & oor's 425-Industrial Stock Index. There is no change in the downward drift of our technical indicators. The long-ter breadth index, which reached a high over a year ago, has declined into new low territory. This index started its worse-than-market action in August which was one of the reasons why this letter became extremely cautious on the market outlook and advised a policy of selling on balance on strength. Since April, the breadth index has been acting like the ma ket.- Before a change-iii.-trend-fsll1dicated, 1hebreadth-indexsnould act beffeY'than'-the market. This has not yet occurred. Volume indications also continue unfayorable. The 25-week total of upside volume has reached a new low and downside volume has reached a new high. However, the drop in upside volume has been greater than the increase in downside volume. This implies that the market decline has been caused by an unwillingness to buy rather than an urgent desi e to sell. In order to reverse the market downtrend there obviously must be a renewed buy ing urge. Such a desire to buy can be brought about in two ways. One way is by a dramatic news event that would quickly reverse the low investor confidence that prevails at the mo ment. There is no indication at the moment that such an event will occur. The other way would be by the simple method of having the market decline to a level where prices would be low enough to attract long-term investment buying. The same volume and breadth pat- terns that are present in today's market also occurred in the market declines of 1953,19 7 and 1960. The percentage declines were fairly similar. High ow 'W 1953 295 4 9 4 .8 The present decline from b h of .30 to today's low of 606. 18 is approximately 17 1/2. While there has been technical indicator s, is let rever of the downtrend on any of our its policy of selling on balance on strength, which, we had ad 0 t u. in the month we changed to a policy of buyi g on balance on we ihW-tb -605 area. We would continue this policy despite the fact that the Indust' v e may work somewhat lower. We base this policy on the technical probability t most of the averages are near the downside objectives indicated on our technical gr s. The downside objective of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average is the 650-605 area. The Industrials hit the lower part of this area on Friday's intra-day low of 606.18. The downside potential of the Standard & Poor's 425-Industrial Stock In- dex is 65-60. Friday's low was 62.08. The downside potential of the Dow-Jones Rail Average is not clear, but the Rails, at Friday's low of 128.46 were still in the broad 150 124 area which could turn out to be a potential base. The downside potential of the Dow- Jones Utility Average is 116-114. Friday's intra-day low was 111.50. Obviously, the other averages could work moderately below their objectives before actual lows are reached. of the graphs of individual issues also shows that downside objectives have been reached. Cur letter of two weeks ago gavE! the downside objectj,ves of TI!lmber of chemical issues. All of these objectives have about been reached. Some of the better- grade growth issues are also getting very close to downside objectives. For example, from a technical viewpoint, the lowest downside indication on IBM is 375. Friday's low was 388. Beckman, which reached a high of 160, has a downside objective in the 90-70 range. Friday's low was 82. While none of the breadth indicators have as yet signalled a turn, our rate of chang indicators are deeply in oversold territory. These indicators are short-term in nature and have been in a downtrend since February. An upside breakout of the downtrend line could occur shortly and would indicate a trend reversal. Considering the fact that many securities and most of the averages are at or close to downside objectives, long-term buying would probably best be done on such an indi- cation, rather than waiting for a change in the breadth index which would probably not come until higher levels had been reached. F'DJ\qTTND vV TA BET T &le1tul(j)i\NIIn'll lll'le-Ss contamedhercln 16 not guaranteed p08&umstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or as to accuracy or completeness nnd the furnIshlng thereof a I' not;'nnd un'acr no r&;u6l cIrcumstances IS….Wbe herein construed The wformntlon as, a representll- ' Jilgm1.cAH of OP!nlOn are llubJect to change Without notIce. Walston & Co. Inc. lind Officers, Dlrcctors, Stockholders and 'ft-rffl'frt'nt'M,c an mterest in the sccurltll.S ment10ned herein ThiS market letter IS intended and presented merely liS II general. mformnl commentary on day to day market neVi'S and not as a complete anah'slB Additional mformatlon With respect to any referred to herein Will be furmshed upon r e q u e s t ' , – \\'1\ JOI , . .,J

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