Viewing Month: February 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 02, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 02, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - February 02, 1962
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Walston &reo. Inc, – – – – – NEW YORK Mernbel'S New Y01'k Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 2, 1962 Cn DlZonday, the Dow-Jones Industrials tested the September support level and, after reaching an intra-day low of 686. 89 on diminished volume, rebounded sharply for the of the week. Friday's intra-day high was 709.34. From a technical view- point, the most important development was the ability of our breadth index to hold well above its September low. The breadth index turned down after reaching its high in May, a thereby predicted the irregular diverse price ac tion which has taken place since that ti Since May, despite the fact that the averages are still very close to the 714 level reache in tha t month, many issues are down 300/0 to 600/0 while many' othershave–moved substanti higher. Every market decline since May has been preceded by worse-than-market action by the breadth index. In the last three weeks this divergence has changed and the breadth index has acted mlre like the market. This is a necessary preliminary to better-than- market action. P,s this letter has continually stressed, the action of the averages at this stage of the market pattern is probably of only academic significance. It is difficult to visualiz a swine of much more than fifty points either side of 700 in the foreseeable future. As fa as individual issues are concerned, the pattern is quite different. Many stocks have been in a bear market trend for nine months with no indication of an immediate change. At the same time, many other issues have broken out on the upside of base patterns and indicat higher levels and many others appear to be still forming bases prior to an upside breako t. Since the first of the year, several groups have shown above-average action. Th oils have been outstanding. Several oil issues are in our recommended list. Kern County Land (84), which entered our recommended list at 53, reached the lower limit of our 85- 0 projection, but we are inclined to raise our sights to issues have al 0 shown above average action. Boeing (55 3/8), recWl'l-me d d Lty 3f reached our 55-6 objective at this week's high of 565/8 and is om recommended list. North I merican A,viation C!,,7 5/ 81, ..Qn..Qur list tion'price of 41 172, reached a new high at 8 anWa acted. This is our favorite aero-space issue and we advise its et '0 0 0 rm holding and would buy on min r (24 3/4) and J. J. Stevens (3 / , recommended list, reached new high terr tory. Beaunit Do'ills ( s a'hractive technical pattern and we are adding it to our recomme . t. . e os. (191/4) is suggested as a speculative purchase in this group. The a g o appears to be in a long-term uptrend. Consolidation Coal ( 43 7/8) appear to e most attractive in the group and is also being added to ou recommended list. rts on this stock and Beaunit Mills will be issued shortly. International Minerals & Chemical reached a high of 54 1/4 in October and re- acted to around the 44 level earlier this year. It has now recovered back to 51 1/8. This stock, which entered our recommended list at 32, continues to have a most interesting long-term potential. In view of the worldwide population explosion, the potential need for an increase in the food supply is enormous and will require large quantities of plant food. I'3L is the world's largest and most diversified agricultural chemical company. Having spent lver 110 millions in the past decade, the company is in an excellent position to from the potential growth in demand. Sales for the fiscal year ending June 30th should again establish a new record and earnings of 3.25 a share are anticipated. This i;; a modest improvement over the 13.07 earned last fiscal year. -The vast high-grade Dotash deposit in Canada at .2;sterhazy, Saskatchawan, will be brought into production lat this Spring. ,P,fter problems in shaft sinking, the shaft is now down to 2700 feet and is proceedin,; at the rate of 10 feet per day, with an ultima te depth of 3200 feet. -otential earnings from the .2sterhazy operation are estimated at a possible 2.00 per share in 1963, increasing to J;3. 45-3.65 in 1964-1965. If these projections are realized, consoli- dated (let profit could be in e,;cess of );7. 00 per share in the 1964-1965 period. The long- term technical oattern is favorable and the Dotential is considerably above present levels 'n the the entire 50-40 to be a strong support level. The issue is an excellent vehicle for growth and long-term price appreciation. Dow'-Jones Ind. 706. 55 r'QUTJOpeS Pails il,e. B, .dDI\(fUND W. TA BELL & CO. INC. ThIS market letter 18 not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcltatlOn to buy tmy securities referred to herem The information contained herem IS not guaranteed a to accurncy or completeness and the furmshmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to he construed as, n represent,,- tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc All expressions of opmlOn are subJect to change WIthout notice Walston & Co, Inc., and Officers, Director!', Stockholders Ilod thereof, purchase, sell nnd may have an mterest In the securitIes mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended nnd presented merely as II. Il'cnerul, mformal commcntm yon dny to day mnrket news and not as (I romplete analySIS AddltlOnnl mformatlon WIth rcsileet to any seClIrltl(!S rcferrerl to herein will be furnished rC'lucst WN J01

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 09, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 09, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - February 09, 1962
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Walston &CO. Inc. FilE COpy Members New York Stock Exclw,nge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER F'ebruary 9, 1962 At Thursday's intra-day high of 719.86, the Dow-Jones Industrial average the lower part of the overhead resistance area at 720-740. This is the area in which the average held during November and December before the downside breakout and the declin to the January low of 686. 89. This heavy supply area will probably hold back the average at least temporllrily. The breadth index continued its improvement during the past week, but is still quite 'some distance below the high reached in May, and also below the high reached in November. It is, however, approaching the downtrend line connecting these t rc highs. The extreme selectivity continues. The Rail average has retraced more than 1000/0 of its decline from the January low. The Industrials have retraced a n1)rmal 660/0 of the decline while the utiiitfes only '300/0of the'declilfe';-We are still'ORhe'opihH n – ' that extremes of the Industrial average for the foreseeable future are roughly 750 and 650 and that the action of individual issues is much more important than the averages. The Meat Packing stocks are one of the groups that have shown above average action in recent markets. Wilson & Co. (55 1/4), reached new high territory at 55 3/4 anc Swift & Co. (46 1/2) at the week's peak of 47 1/2, was approaching the 1961 high of 49 1/ . The outlook for the industry is favorable. A sizeable increase in livestock supplies is ,predicted for 1962 and meat packing operations should show good earnings gains. tlentift supply enables the spreading of the overhead costs over a larger volume. Also, wholesal prices tend to lag behind the changes in the livestock prices. The meat packing business is a high-volume, low-profit operation and even a slight change in profit margins can re- sult in a sharp reversal in earnings. Because of these wide earnings fluctuations, meat packing companies have taken steps to lessen profit swings. Some excess capacity has be eliminated and new plants have been built near livestock centers rather than in Chicago, thus eliminating the long ,rail or truck haul. Product portant role. A steadily rising percentage of total inc e ,also played an 1lIupplied by opera- tions other than meat packing. i'dlson & Co., for example, is the ufacturer of sporting gooj! , .- -Rl'ofit ,.suiHti, . 5velygoodeac!n!ngs for the company. Wilson & Co. b eat operation in the industry. Ex- cess plant capacity has This favorable performance s n e'tained capacity has been modernized. in the price action in the stock over the past five From a technic i di 1 7 the stock has risen over 3500/0 at this week's hi h ,,,'s upside breakout indicates higher levels over the longer term. By compari on rwlft & Co. had done poorly. From a 1957 low of 26 3/4, the stock has risen les n 1000/0 and is still below the 1954 high of 51 1/2 and the 1955 high of 52 1/2. Its potentials are most interesting, however. In the fiscal year ended October 31st, earnings of Swift & Co. declined to 2.01 from the 3.09 earned in fiscal 1960. This reflected the narrower profit margins which effected the entire industry in 1961. As note above, current improvements in the supply of both cattle and hogs in the year ahead shou d reverse the unsatisfactory profit performance of 1961 and earnings estimates for fiscal 1962 range from 3.50 to 4. 50. Swift & Co. has been engaged in a vigorous campaign of modernization and diversification to improve profit margins which are low compared to V\,ilson & Co. Swift's profit margin in fiscal 1961 was one-half of 10/0 compared to 1. for Ihilson. Swift has 400 in sales behind each share outstanding, so an increase in profit margins could Obviously result in sharply higher earnings. Included in the compan, ' expanding activities are agricultural'chemicals, dairy products, fire-casualty-and life ins- urance companies, vegetable oil shortenings and insecticides. A meat tenderizer, Proten also has an interesting profit potential. Swift-'s non-meat packing activities alone gene- rate sales estimated at 800 million annually. They account for over one-third of total sales and a much larger share of profits during adverse m eat processing periods. The expanding insurance business has been particularly profitable and made up 280/0 of Swift's fiscal 1961 net. Swift & Co. is on our recommended list. The technical pattern is ex- cellent and it is recommended for long-term holding. Dow-Jones Ind. 714.27 Dow-Jones Rails 148. 64 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter is not. and under no Clrcumstnnces lS to be construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcitatlOn to buy any secuntles referred to herem The information contained herem is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as a representa tlOn by Wnlston & Co, Inc. All expressions of opmion are subJect to change WIthout notice Walston & Co Inc and Officers Directors SU;ckholders and Employees thereof, purchase, Bell and may have an mterest in the seeurities mentioned herem. ThlB market is nnd p'relentcd m'erelY as a gC!lleral, mfOImal commentary on day to day market news nn4 not as a complete analYSIS. Addlbonal mformatlOn WIth respect to any SeCUrltIes referred to herem WIll be upo.n. . . \\'N Jl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - February 16, 1962
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Walston &Co. Inc !Ifembers New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-YCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 16, 1962 The market is feeling the effects of the overhead resistance centered between 72 and 740 in terms of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. It is interesting to note that the intra-day high for the past seven days has been between 721 and 717. However, selectivity continues. Although there have been many more new highs than lows, two major steel companies, U. S. Steel and Armco, reached new bottoms dud the past week. At the same time, many stocks on our recommended list reached new hig s including Beaunit Mills, Cluett Peabody, Ex- Cell-O, International Minerals & Chemical, 'Jewmont Mining, Schlumberger (formerly Daystrom) and J. P. Stevens. Consolidation CoaL.. wbicQ also high is reviewed belo.!. In addition, we are adding J. Ra,y. McDermott to our list. It wili 'bereviE;wed-Shortly. . – -v' CONSOLIDATION COAL COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 46 1. 40 3. 00/0 Long-Term Debt Common Stock 18,300,747 9,081,839 shs. Sales, 1961 Est. 230,000,000 Earned Per Sh., 1961 Est. 2.00 Market Range 1962-57 461/2 – 27 On November 20, 1961, Consolidation Coal Company shareholders approved amend ments to the company's articles of incorpor tion widely broadening its powers to make long-term investments outside the coal area. The reasons for this amendment were succinctly explained in the proxy statement whi stated that, basically, a coal mining company…. is a self-liquidating enterprise…. To continue in (the coal) business, cash gene rated by depleting coal reserves must normally be used maintain existing properties, and to develop new ones. e additional reserves, t c pany pointed out, ho ever, Consolidation's reserves are n,ow quite 0 t k c e . nticipated produc ion during the foreseeable future. It lS, therefore, 1 e c s mterest to use the ConsolldatlOn lS ln an and, to nake new investments . ties, WhlCh lnclude some 0 t 0 11 .uer. . bo broaden its operations in the co 1 American business. Its coal proper best maintained in the country, have past four years e te d ' stry-wide production, plus an additional cash flow from depreciatio d et' mounting to 1. 77 a share in Uj60. A large part of this cash flow is not re ire maintenance of coal properties, and under the broadened e used for expansion both in and out of the coal field. Financial position is unusua strong with current assets exceeding all liabilities by some 82 million. In addition, the company has investments of some 40 million at book value, probably worth a good 10 million more at market. The following projects, all fairly recently announced, give some indication of the direction in which the company might mo (1) A merger with Truax-Traer Coal Company on a share-for-share basis has been proposed. This will increase pro-forma earnings sliGhtly and give Consolidation access to attractive mid- V. estern markets. Upon completion of the merger, Consoli- dation's dividend will be raised to 1. 60. (2) The company is cooperating with Texas Easto;rn Trans mission to build a pipe line from the Vi-est coa!. fields, transporting liquified coal to ti1e 'Jew York and Philadelphia areas. Appro-val by the State of Marylancris now 'tile 'only-obstacle In'-the- path of the construction of such a line. (3) It was recently announced that Consolidation has acquired a little over 10/0 of the stock of Chrysler Corp. Since George H. Love is Chairman of both companies, the Chrysler investment becomes rather interesting. (4) Mr. Love, late last year, said that Consolidation was studying about six companies as possible investments. In summary, excellent management, a strong balance sheet and large cash flow seem to indicate that Consolidation will be able to develop extensive new areas of profitability as time goes on. The stock, recently added to our recommended list at 43 7/8, is again suggested for purchase in investment accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 716.46 Dow-,Tones Bails 149.04 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIS market letter IS not. and under no IS to be contrucd nn offer to I'ell or R BobcitatlOn to buy Ilny BecuritIes referred to herem The informatIOn contnincil herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completenese and the furnishmg thereof IS not, and under no clrcumemnces 18 to be com'trucd a', a representa tIon by Walston & Co., Inc All e,,presslons of opinIon arc suhJeet to without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers. Dlrectors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchasc, sell and may ha\e an interest In the seeurit.eq mentioned herem Thi market Jettel' 1; intenrlcd and presented mel'ely as a general, mformnl commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete IlnaiYlls. Addlbonal information ith respect to any seCUtltlCs referred to herem ill be . . .. . ., \yN 301 .– r

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 23, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 23, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - February 23, 1962
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Walston &Co. Inc. ;,…-…..;– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND oveRSEAS \, TABEll'S MARKET lETTER February 23, 1962 Reaching a lo',v of 705.09 on Friday, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average broke out of the 11-day 721-710 trading range. Cn all of these 11 days the intra-day high had been between 721 and 717, The small top formed suggests a possible dip to 700-690 as part of an attempt to enlarge a longer-term formation and eventually push through the overhead supply between 720 and 740. A decisive penetration of the January low of 686.89 would d s troy this potential base and suggest a possible 650-635. For almost a year, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average has held in a 100/0 trading ran between 741. 30 and 673.49. In terms of an individual stock, this is comparable to a trad n area between 74 1/-8 and 67 3/8. On -the-face of it, this is hardly an exciting performance but the nar-row trading range is actually the result of averaging out some very wide price swings, both up and down, in individual issues. We could fill several pages with lists of stocks that, since April, have either (1) declined 250/0 to 500/0, (2) advanced 250/0 to 500/0 or (3) have done nothing. For the past year, this has been a market in which it would have been possible to have been long of some stocks and, at the same time, short of others and to have made sizeable profits in both positions. Our technical work tells us that this selective type action will continue. We en- vision neither a roaring bull market nor a catastrophic decline. For a long time, our up- side potential for the Industrial Average has been 725-775. The lower part of this area was reached at the November high of 741. 30. \Ve would continue to lighten commitments in this area. On the downside, the most pessimistic projection at the moment is 650-635. We would be a buyer on balance if this area is approached. In the meantime, we would co – centrate our attention on individual issues rather than on the swings of the general marke Our recommended list consists of 70 issues. Individual each situation warrants regardless of the action of the a e a be added or dropped a 0 A bit of historical background might be Dow-Jones Industrial Average was selling at 8 tim h's in. e 1949 low, the rnings leld 6.70/0. At that leve the market was ridiculously undervalued. trial -i The bulk of the rise occurred in th e' b we 9 0 the 1961 high, the Indusulib-';oroken ao'Wrdiitedwopha e 949 and 1956-1957. During this firs phase, the average e to a high of 525. Earnings advanced from a 1946-1949 low chip investment i s 8 1957. The leaders of the rise were the blue rv ion of 1949 was corrected during this first phase. The second 0e nce has had a different background. The 1957-1962 market has had nei r th sistance of a drastic undervaluation nor a rising earnings trend. Earnings on th w-Jones Industrials have so far failed to better the 1957 peak 0 36.08, although th probably will do so in 1962. Despite the lack of earnings increase, the Industrial Average has advanced 410/0 from the 1956-1957 high of 525 to the 1961 high 741. In a sense, the advance has been an escape from reality. With earnings of many of the largest cyclical-type companies showing no increase, the purchase of other issues wa justified on the basis of projections of long-term growth in earning power rather than on immediate earnings. Most of this buying was concentrated on consume r goods issues. Some of the buying was in better quality investment issues which advanced to newall-tim highs in i E ratios and lows in yields. Also, unfortunately, a great deal of irrational bu ing came into a rather motley group of marginal stocks and industries, particularly in the new issues field. Some of these stocks have already had drastic price declines, but the correction of the excesses probably has osomewhat further to go. On the favorable side of the picture, there are many issues that are showing excel- lent technical action. In the main, they consist of groups that appear relatively under- valued. Many of them are in the blue chip investment group that led the 1949-1957 advance and have done little marketwise for the past 5 years. Others will be found in groups like coal, meat packing and textiles that have been in investment disfavor for a long period of time. The cross currents of adjustment necessary to build up a more normal market structure probably will result in a wide trading area for a considerable period of time. This consolidation period should be used to upgrade the quality of holdings both from a viewpoint of safety and ultimate price appreciation. Dow-Jones Ind. 709.54 EDMUND W. TABELL 18 un er no Clfe mstnnces IS to be construed as, an offer to 'ell or a solicitatIOn to buy any Bccur;tJes refered to herein The Jnformnhon contamed herem is not guuranteed (1'1 to nccurncy or completeness and the furmshIng thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed ns, a representn. 110n by Walston & Co, Inc. All expreS'llOns of opmion are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, find Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may hQ.ve an mterest III the secUrities mentioned herem This market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a genernl. mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete anllbBI!!. Addlbonnl mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herem wdl bt . . .. . .. .-. . .. . WX 3Dl

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