Viewing Month: November 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 02, 1962
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I FILE COpy Walston &Co. ——–lnc——— Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH,iCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Last week's market action was constructive. November 2, 1962 The Dow-Jones Industrials penetrated a downtrend line which had been in effect since August, following similar action by the Rail average in the week previous. Although some supply in the Industrials may be encountered in the 600-620 area, an eventual upside penetration is expected and this letter continues to maintain the optimistic attitude toward the market that we have indicated over the past month. The stock market is a highly complex business but, paradoxically, the best answer toa question is often the simplest one. One reason !e tend to favor new buying of stocks at this time one that th;yare' cheaperthanlIJ.-e)i'nave- -De en- ,,- in some time. Thus, the following table which shows pricel earnings ratios at their bull market highs, currently, and at recent lows for America's 35 largest publicly held In- dustrial companies is instructive. Thirty-three of the 35 companies are now selling below their peak ratios indicating that the bear market adjustment has been as much as any- thing else, a change in investor confidence rather than a change in the fundamentals. It is interesting to note that at their highs, 4 of the companies were selling above 40 times earnings, 8 above 30 times earnings and 17 above 20 times earnings. Only 9 of the com- panies could have been bought at their peaks, at less than a 15 multiple. Now, on the other hand, 24 of America's 35 largest companies can be bought under 15 times earnings with only 5 of the stocks above a 20 pI E and only 1 selling at more than 30 times ear ning! . General Motors Stand. Oil of N. J. Ford Motor General Electric Socony Mobil Oil Price 55 53 42 68 52 High 59 69 59 100 66 Date 1959 1957 1961 1959 1956 High 1962 pIE Ratio pIE Ratio Low At Low GEt\\\19.3 17.4 15A 40 11. 9 W 1).9 6 '8.5 .0 11. 6 35 9.3 pIE Ratio Now 12.2 1'1 13.9 10 9.8 I'l- 22.6 Ue 10.9 , Gulf Oil Swift &Co. 34 34 0' 13.4 31 32 10.3 11. 6 11. 3 12.3 DuPont, Chrysler Corp. 5 2 955 31. 3 8.9 165 39 17.9 7.8 23.9 12.4 General Dynamics 1957 14.4 20 4.4 5.6 Stand. Oil of Calif. 62 1959 15.5 40 9.5 12.4 Bethlehem Steel 9 59 1959 24.2 27 13.5 14.5 Stand. Oil of Indiana 41 65 1956 15.4 35 8.6 9.3 Westinghouse Elec. Shell Oil 28 65 1960 32 47 1961 29.3 20.3 25 29 16.7 11. 4 18.7 12.5 Boeing Co. 38 65 1956 13.5 23 7.5 12.4 National Dairy 52 79 1961 22.5 46 12.4 14.0 Armour & Co. 34 57 1962 21. 5 32 12.1 12.8 Intern'l Business Mach. 352 Intern'lHarvester 46 Union Carbide 96 607 1961 57 1959 151 1959 66. 1 10.1 26.5 300 38 83 28. 6 11.2 15.8 33. 5 11.5 18.3 Proctor & Gamble 63 102 1961 40.0 56 20.4 22.9 Radio Corp. 50 78 1960-,- 40 ..4 Goodyear Tlre & R 29 50 1959 21. 8 Lockheed Aircraft 49 53 1962 11. 8 No. Amer. Aviation 64 72 1962 17.6 General Tel. & E1ec. 20 34 1960 33.3 Phillips Petroleum 43 65 1961 19.6 Sinclair Oil Corp. 30 73 1956 12.2 Firestone Tire & R 28 51 1961 22.1 Sperry Rand 11 35 1961 43.2 General Foods 69 108 1961 37.2 Contlt1ental Can 42 60 1958 17.1 ;39 14, 2 25 11. 4 35 7.8 38 9.3 18 15.7 42 12.5 29 11. 2 25 11. 1 10 11.8 58 19.0 31 14.0 13.2 10.9 15.6 17.4 12.8 11. 5 12.4 12.9 22.6 12.7 D-J Ind.604. 58 1960 Low D-.J Rajl S 122.51 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter is not, and under no t'lrcumstRnees is to be construed as, an offer to or a sohcltation to buy any lIecurltles referred to nereln, The Information conttuned herein 18 not as to accurnc or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not, and under no circumlltanees III to be construed all, II. representn. tlOn by Wai!;ton & Co, Inc All clCpressions of opinIOn arE subject to change Without notice, Walston &; Co. Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and l'mplo'eetj tneroof, purchase, soil and mny ha\e nn Interest In the seeurltlcs mentIOned herein ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general. Informal commentary on day to day market neWS and not as a complete annlysls Additional mformation With respect to any secUrities referred to herein Will be furmsnf'(1 uJ)n request TN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 09, 1962
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I.r Walston 5- Co. Inc FILE COpy Member8 New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEnER November 9, 1962 The market is following the expected technical pattern, but the pace of the advance, at least in terms of the averages, has been a bit more rapid than anticipated. Several weeks ago this letter suggested that an upside penetration of the August intra-day high of 622.02 in the Dow-Jones Industrial average would occur around the turn of the year. However, with an advance of over seventy points (or over 120/0) in only ten trading days, the Industrials are already very near an upside breakout. The week's intra-day high was 620. 06. The advance so far has been concentrated in the big name stocks which is why the Dow-J-on-es-Industr-ial avel'a'ge;–consist-ing of-30such.stocks, high, than the broader Standard & Poor's Industrial index which consists of 425 stocks. The August high in the S & P Industrial index was 63.28, and this week's high was 61.91. This selective action is also reflected in our breadth index which is well below the high registered in August. However, an advance brought about by an abrupt change in the emotional background usually.starts with an advance in the better known stocks and the secondar issues follow along at a later date. This is the anticipated action at the moment. Breadth indices will probably furnish the clue to the timing and extent of the present advance. On the favorable side, some of the more sensitive breadth indices, such as 25-week mOving totals of volume and of advances and declines, have already given a significantly bullish signal. Various shorter term graphs of market action indicate the need of some consolidation at this point, but the intermediate-term pattern still remains the same. We anticipate an advance to the 650-685 level in the first half of 1963. We continue to sugges a basic policy of buying selected issues on weakness. .. The important question, of course, is what to buy. is wise not to try to master-mind the market as far as in idu . is a time when it are concerned. Fashions in stocks change Just as fashions in clothachn In t few years while the market was reaching the mature stage of the tw \(efyea a ce from the 1949 lows, the search was for the exotic and unusual, gr – of tis' r -r s theory reached the height w1lfStocks is oasicaUya very c sound one if it is applied to the righ t n nately, there aren't very many real growth stocks. In 1961, stocks and did not des ve th bikini in the swim u f a tely, there aren 't many stocks were g ti I!I!\l.rWissues that were classified as growth i. e theory in stocks is comparable to the . l' oks awfully good on the right girl, but, unfortune- t look good in a bikini. In stock market terms, too h multiples in 1961. Probably a more conservative fashion will be popular r the next several years. This letter be ves that the stock market reached a major top in 1961 and a major bottom in 1962, and the sequel will be a long and lengthy consolidation and accumulation area in, roughly, the 700-500 range. This is similar to the pattern formed in the 19461949 period which laid the base for the 1949-1961 advance. Once the advance started, the leaders of the first phase of the advance from 1949 to 1956 were big, strong blue chip issues of the type mentioned in our compilation of the 35 largest industrial companies in last week's letter. It is our belief that issues of this type will also be the leaders of the next broad advance. Unlike the market averages, which reached their highs in November, 1961.many of these blue chip issues reached their highs in 1956 to 1959 and have done little marketwise since that time. The leaders of the latter phase of the 1949-1961 period were largely in the consumer goods field. The last important capital goods boom was in the,-1956-1957 period. By 1965, the need for capital spending will be more apparent, and the leaders of the advance in the market will probably include the kind of company, such as General Electric, which benefits from a high-volume, durable goods economy.Accompany ing such a rise will, of course, be the gOOd, sound growth companies, butthe number will be smaller than in the recent past. EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 616-13 Dow-Jones Rails – 126.05 WALSTON & CO. INC. .j ThIS market letter is flot. and under no cueumstances 18 ttl be construed as, an !lffer to S(lli or a soliCitatIOn to buy any secUrities ff!ferred to herem The mformatlon contained herem 10 not WI to accuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof 18 not, and under no circumstances is to be construf!d so, a. representa- tIOn by Walston & Co, Inc All eXpreqSlOnS of OPiniOn are subject to. change Without Walston & Co, ll1C., and Officers, Directors. Stockholders snd Employees thereof purchase sell and may have an Interest In the securitIes mentlOncd herein ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general. \Wmformai on dai to day market news not as a complete analysts Additional mform!!.tlon With respect to sny SecUrities referred to herein furmshed uJXn reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 16, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 16, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 16, 1962
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Walston &- Co. Inc o MCIII!e Xell' -n!'!.' Stnc/; Euhanfle NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 16, 1962 The performance of the stock market over the past month has been, to say the least, impressive. In 16 trading days the Dow-Jones Industrial average has risen almost 16 with advances bemg scored on 11 trading days out of the 16. In all but 4 days, the number of advancing stocks exceeded the number declining, usually by a considerable margin. Thus, where we had originally projected a target of 650-685 for the Dow, to be reached some time in the Spring of 1963, it now appears more likely of attainment in January or February. Whether this is the sharpest rise for such a period on record is a matter of conjec- ture, but it is certainly one of the sharpest. What is even more interesting is the dramatic change in Wall Street-psychology that has taken place. -A few weeks ago, points lower, it was practically impossible to find a bullish voice being raised in the financial community. At that time this letter said, It is our belief that the low of the market will occur very shortly and it will be followed by an advance that will carry above the August high ….. by the early part of 1963. Declines between now and the end of the year….. will be the last opportunity to establish a long-term position before the start of the advance. It was a voice crying in the wilderness. Most of the seers who have now swung sharply to the bullish side of the fence now claim that the successful confrontation in Cuba has, in some magical way, made stocks wort more today than they were a month ago. This is, in our opinion, tenuous at best. The rise in stocks that followed Khrushchev's backdown is another one of a long chain of examples of the market's finding an excuse to do what it was in a technical position to do in the first pIa more valid explanation for both the magnitude and tic amounts of money that were, at the end of October, poi lies in the fantasto enter the equity market. The following items are of interest. (1) – Time deposits in Federal Reserve ban\ il, by t nd of September, in- creased almost 6 1/2 billion since the end figure, it is only necessary to say that it is s t current average prices. t 'ilea of the magnitude of this i 1 t to chase 150 million shares of – — — – – — (2)-Mutual funds, increased their liquidity. When a -n r.9R,hlr in sales in August and September, had showed an increase, which is believed to be the case, a a ore 'n s nt pressure came from this source. (3) – By 0 1 0 terest had reached more than 6 million shares, and the ratio to daily vol ar ed 1.98, a level which, since 1932, has occurred only close to major bottoms -n arket. The average investor was, to use the vernacular, caught with his pants d or, perhaps more accurately, with his shorts down. What, however, does '111 this mean for investment policy at the moment This depends largely on the current position of the investor. If he had the courage to take a largely invested position at the end of October, ther is very little problem. It is only necessary for him to maintain this position. The rapidity of the rise, however, is a guarantee that most investors are not in such a position. holdings on any minor decline. The They are, indeed, great difficulty is t waiting hat with fsoor the opportunity to add to many potential equity buy- ers in this position, any decline is not likely to be drastic. Certainly, with the averages now above the August high, the 620-600 top area of that period should provide support for any de- cline. Even the very unlikely contingency of a return to the 550 low should be of little consequence to the holder of well chosen equities. It is much more probable that a correction, if there is one, will be minor in scope. Meanwhile, the upside objective of our technical work continues to be 650-685 on the Dow. A large number of stocks have higher percentage upside potentials and, above all, it is probable that a large portion of the potential equity money mentioned above is still waiting to enter the market. In view of all this, those investors still having cash reserves are probably best off committing them at the present time. Dow-Jones Ind. 630. 98 Dow-Jones Rails 131. 03 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 23, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 23, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 23, 1962
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I – – I Wdlst1!!l&Co. FILE ;OPV Member. Nell' Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND TABEll'S MARKET lETTER November 23, 1962 In mid-October, Industrial average was selling in the 560-570 area, this letter expressed the opinion that the market was in a buying range and the August high of 622 would be bettered in the early part of 1963 and the average would reach the 650- 685 area. On Friday, just a little over a ntonth later, the Industrials reached the lower part of the 650-685 objective at the intra-day high of 649.26. We certainly did not expect the advance to be as rapid as it has been. There has been no reaction worthy of the name since the average reached its intra-dal low on October 24th at 549.65. However, despite the steepness of the rise, our technical work indicates no important distributional pattern. Of course, a technica.l.correction.of expectation, but such a correction would probably be limited to the upper part of the 620-600 support area. Our opinion remains the same except for timing. The Industrials should reach the upper part of the 650-685 area, but probably by January, if not bE\fore. In trading accounts, we continue to advise holding commitments and adding to holdings on weakness. We have expressed the thought in the past that the present rise from the May-June lows would probably not result in new highs in the averages above the 741. 30 high of 1961. We believe the market is in a broad consolidating period similar to 1946-1949. The sequal to the 1946-1949 consolidation period was the 1949-1961 bull market that advallced from 160 to 741 in a twelve-year period. Obviously, a comparable rise is not to tie expected in the next major bull market. The stock market in 1949 was in the most drastically undervalued position in our entire financial history. However, by 1964, or we would expect the market to move substantially above the 1961 level. 0 In the interim, the market will probably havli' e' ica rlance, do some more work in a wide trading area between, roughly, nd he market reached a major top in 1961 at 741. Usually, a ra af an important top consists of three waves, a down movement followed b ar ase, and then a later downward se arket,-we-believe-the'first'wave-was . completed at the May-June or upward wave. It will proba that the market is now in the second we\'8y another downward wave into the 600-525 range before the or Jj ket is completed. To truly un t market, it is necessary to break the market down into the action of indi . u gr s. While the averages and many individual groups reached their highs just about a ye go, many other groups had reached their highs three to five years earlier, and ha een in lengthy bear markets for a long period of time. Included in ,this classification are some of the largest and most important groups in the economy such as Airlines, Aluminums, Automobiles. Building. Chemical, Copper, Machinery, Oils, Paper, Railroads, Steel and Textiles. Some of these groups, like the oils, have already completed a three to five-year consolidation period and have, from a technical viewpoint, formed sufficiently large bases over the past few years to indicate levels well above their previoils highs. On the other hand, the groups that reached their highs with the market aver ages only a year ago probably have to undergo a longer period of consolidation. After the present rally is completed, these groups will probably fall, back to a test of their May-June lows. In the 'meantime, other than.a.minorteclmical correctton the general market. Most individual issues still have not reached their upside potentials. The leaders in the present rise have been the blue chip issues of the larger, cyclical com- panies. We would expect this type of leadership to continue. Groups that have not yet ad- vanced sharply, but have attractive technical patterns, include Machine Tools, Mail Order, Paper, Rails and Textiles. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Ind. 644.87 Dow-Jones Rails 135. 15 ThiB market letter Is not, and under 110 circumstances IS to be construed itS, an offer to lIell or a flolicitntlOll to buy any seCUrities relet'red 'to herem The Information contained herein 18 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness nnd the iurnlshml! thereof 18 not. nnd undel no Cllcumstances IS to be construed 8S, 8 reprCllenta4 tlOn by Walston Co. Inc All expresSions of opInion are subject to chnnJ,e Without nohce Walston 8 Co. Inc. and Officers, Directors, Stockholders Dnd Employees thereof, purchaue, sellnnd may have an Interest In the SecUritIes mentwncrf heleln. This market letter IS IIltended ond Iresented merely a6 n ..eeneral. Informal commentary on day to day market news and not ao; a complete Additinnnlm(ol'mntlon Ith to any SeCtllltlCll rC!fcrred to herein will be furnished upon request ., 301 ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 30, 1962

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 30, 1962

Tabell's Market Letter - November 30, 1962
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I Walston &Co. Mrm!er. Xrl(' York Stork Exchan/e NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS November 30, 1962 At the week's intra-day high.of 655.95, the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached deeper into the lower part ofoUr'650- 685 upside potential. The Rail average, at 138. 69, was also close to the overhead supply in the 140 -150 area. However, most technical indicators show no signs of intermediate-term deterioration. Profit-taking might result in a moderate decline but, at this stage of the market pattern, such a correction would probably be limited to the 640-630 area. The advance from the October 24th intra-day low of 549.65 has been extremely rapid. In the short period of twenty-five trading days, the Industrial average has advanced 106 points or almost 20. In addition, the recovery from the June low has been quite dramatic. In five months, the average has recovered-60 of the 216-point decline from the November, 1961 intra-day high of 741. 30 to the June intra-day low of 524.55. The recovery in the Dow- Jones Industrial average, and in the Standard & Poor's Industrial index, points up the advan tage of owning quality stocks during periods of market uncertainty. Both of these averages consist of better grade companies which have outperformed the general market during most of the year. While General Motors, Standard Oil of New Jersey, duPont, and other blue chip issues, are near the year's highs, many overexploited glamour issues have staged only rela tively minor recoveries from their lows. While the advance from the June lows has been extremely rapid, it fits into the histo- rical pattern. However, it is necessary to go quite far back into stock market history for comparison. The 29 decline in the Industrial average from November to June was the steep est decline since the 50 decline twenty-five years ago in period from 1949 to 1961 was all part of a broad twelve-year bull market with m modest declines. The worst decline was the 20 drop in 1957. Also, a u r i n, t ntire 1949-1961 pe- riod was the wave of a very long-term, five-wa e war ement that will eventuall carry to much hIgher levels. The market d ajor top in 1961 and is now in the second wave of the broad long-term up Thi cond wave is a consolidating and phase that ec It must be compared to the self, was a long-term correctr e of the 1929 to 1949 period which, in it- There i s twenty-year period between 1929 and 1949. In the table below we v recent decline and recovery with the initial decline an recovery in 1929-19 1 3 38 and 1946-1949. High Date L Date Decline High Date Time Recovery 386.10 Sept.1929 195.59 Aug. 1937 Nov. 1929 50 297.25 April1930 5 mos. Mar. 1938 50 158.90 Nov.1938 8 mos. 53 60 213.30 May 1946 160.49 Oct. 1946 25 194.49 June 1948 20 mos. 64 741. 30 Nov. 1961 524.55 June 1962 29 To date 655.95 Nov. 1962 5 mos. 60 The 1929 declipe of 50, and the 53 recovery of the decline in 1930, was followed by a sharply lower low.' The Industrial declined to 40.56 in July, 1932. We believe the entire 1929-1932 phase can be excluded from our comparison. The background and stage of the market pattern are not in any sense comparable with the present situation. The other two examples are much more comparable to the present pattern. It will be noted that the per- centage recovery from the low is about the same as the present recovery. The 1937 decline was, of course, much.more severe .than ,.which is more comparable to the 1946-1949 pattern. The subsequent action of the market after each recovery was com- pleted, also is informative. In the 1946-1949 period, the low of 160.49 reached in the initial decline was never violated, but it was tested at 160.62 almost three years later in June,1949 Somewhat comparable action occurred in the 1937-1938 phase. The low of the initial decline held for four years and even then was broken only moderately in April, 1942 after Pearl Harbor and the initial bad war news. The 1942 low was 92.69, compared to the 97.46 low four years earlier. This action, on two comparable occasions, leads to the conclusion that the next correction in the present market will hold above the 1962 low of 524.55. Consider- ingthe market pattern, it may not go below the 600-550 level. However, a somewhat larger consolidation periodis''PrababiYi.lI1eedeu,before the start of a new major bull market. Dow-Jones Ind. – 649. 30 Dow-Jones Rails – 138.97 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Th1'l nlurkct letter \'1 not, nnd undel no Clrcumbtnnce; 18 to be ns, un offet to sell 01 R !whcltntwn tn llllY nny t dell cd \0 he! em The lnfm mahan ('ontnmcd herein IS not f,runrrml(''d ns to UCI'Urnl)' or Rnli the the eof \.. nut, anrl und(i nil ('11 ('tlllh.tnnl c… hi to be (,lint-tilled ab, n relll hun hy Wnillton & Co Inc, All expreSlon f tlPlDlUn nre to rhHIl).'(, wlthut 1IlitHe Wahtn & CII, 1m', IInl1 OFTlcel'll, DIlCdI!!, Stoclholdcl!l nnd Employce!; thcreof, plilchnse, sell und may ha\'e un lDt(,lcst 111 the IIc(,lIrillCH mcntll)ncr1 helem Thlb milihet JettCI II! mtendcll nnd .)rellented merely nl! a lo!cnelnl, Inrolmnl cummentnry on (luy to (In) mnrket ncwl! nnd Ilol a complete Ilnllly.. A,i,litlrlllfli mfUlmntlon …. Ith IC-IIIClt to !lily ..(Clll'.tICI! I cf('1lC' to hClcm will he fUl u,pon rcqucst \\), J01

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