Viewing Year: 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 10, 1968 The stock market continues to display a great deal of vitality. Heavily overbought as long as three weeks ago, it has persistently refused to decline and, instead, rotational action continues, accompanied by good overall breadth. It is our continued feeling that the intermediate-term outlook has improved, and we would use any periods of short-term weakness over the next few weeks to commit reserves to well-chosen equities such as the following. Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt 3.50 Cum. Pfd. Stk. Common Stock -COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY …. …… 45 5/8 New product innovation and introduction 1. 10 have been the keys to Colgate's long history 2.4 of successes and, operating as the company does within the confines of one of industry's 28.4 million most competitive areas, these are likely to 125,000 shs. remain important to the trend of profitability. 14,747,778 shs. This year is likely to witness further prog Sales-1968 Est. Sales-1967 1. 1 billion 1. 02 billion ress in the product-introduction area as the company gears up to attempt an important Earn. Per Sh. 1968-Est. 2 50 E arn. P er Sh. 1967 2' 23 . Mkt. Range 1967-1968 26 7/8 – 457/8 penetration into the shampoo market. While it Pfijis a relatively important factor in the shampo area, its maintained by heavy pro ion lYs. Coming up with a real. winner in this area could improve this division'j!(t)vex c n net mcome. \YPo n to company-wide Ultra-Brite is Colgate's latest Ultra-Brite is a whitener-type toothpaste tha market,. estimate.d by the company at he arket. Introduced in 1967, a ed nificant portion of the overall o. . e same -time, .however, – Colgate Dental Cream, the mains a highly important earni s t not significantly cannibalized and re. Other c e ergents such as Cold Power, Fab, Super Suds and the Aj ax line. Pa I s a ere Bouquet soap and talc, Baggies, Colgate 100 mouthwash, Handy' 0 Lustre-Creme shampoos, Wildroot Hairdressing and the 007 line of men's toile ie e other items of importance. In the drug line, Colgate's ethi- cal products include it for the treatment of mental depression, asthma, heart and gastro intestinal disorders. mong proprietary products are such well-known names as Dermassag Cong e staid and Tackle. In recent years, results have reflected the more aggressive outlook taken by manag ment. Prior to the early 1960' s, profits remained in a plateau between 1. 66 a share and 1. 07. Since breaking out of this restrictive area in 1965, earnings have made favorable progress, advancing at a rate approximating 10 annually. Despite devaluations overseas last year, net rose to a record high of 2. 23 a share, vs. 2.01 the previous year. In the current year, income is anticipated to record another peak around the 2.50 a share level. This also strongly suggests that the conservative dividend payout rate, currently set at 271/2 quarterly, may be increased. Foreign operations continue to increase in'importance. The companynow operates in 42 countries with many others covered by sales agents. It is believed that sales derived from non-domestic sources account for almost 60 of total revenues and between 85 and 90 of earnings. This should prove important to the company's long-term prospects as nations overseas accelerate their upward trending living standards. Technically, Colgate's chart pattern is most impressive. Since bottoming out in 1966, an ascending triangle has been constructed with an area of accumulation and support strongly evident in the 44-40 area. This base indicates a price objective in the 58 area, initially. Currently on our Recommended List, these shares are recommended for purchase at prevailing market levels by investment-oriented accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 912,91 Dow-Jones Rails 241. 79 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb Thill market letter is published for your convemence and InfOMnlltlon And Is not nn offer to sell or a solICitation to buy any secUrities diSCUSsed. The m. formation was obtained from 8Ouree8 we beheve to be rchable, but we do not guRI'antt' ' its accuran Walston & Co., Inc. and Its officers, directors or emDlo),ees may have an interest In or llurchase and sell the SeCUTlllCq referred to h('tcm. ,

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

– -. Walston &Co. – – – – Inc. ;,…;…….;;….;;- FI L e Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 17, 1968 The Commerce Department report for the first quarter reveals that 1968 could be a strongly consumer-oriented year. The rate of consumer spending has been stepped up as suggested by the lower rate of disposable income going into savings accounts. In our opinion, one of the industries most likely to benefit from this 11 spending spree is textiles. This group as a whole..,Seems to be in a long-term uptrend with many isspes still selling well below their historic highs. One of the more attractive is BURLINGTON Il\DUSTRIES (43 3/41.The largest and most broadly based company in the industry, Burlington has had an unusually good record over the last ten years, rising from an adjusted price below 5.00 a share in 1957 to more than 50.a share in 1966.- Despite this s'prospects see equally attractive for the long pull. Much of this success can be attributed to the fact that Burlington is the industry leade in the production of man-made fiber goods. This area accounts for better than 65 of total sales, and continues to expand. Additionally, apparel fabrics account for 70 of sales, and our fashion-oriented economy is expected to devour record amounts of fabrics well into the foreseeable future. This would seem to indicate that Burlington's sales in this area also will continue to expand, further favoring our hopes for earnings growth. The company appears to have shaken off the effects of fiscal 1967's inventory retrenc ment. Results for the first-half, ended March 31st, support this view. For the fiscal year ending September 30th, we are expecting earnings to rise to between 2.90 and 3. 00 a share — ex the probable tax increase, versus 1967 results of 2.30 a share. Despite the likelihood of a tax increase lowering this estimate, to consider favor ably an increase in the current 1. 20 annual dividend rate m a'u ing the present calendar year. From the technical view, Burlington'has se 0 lderable support in the 43-37 area, limiting downside risk. Price a 0 years enables us to project a price goal at 76. Currently selling only support level, Burlington shares again the likelihood of com petition from the rising ood 0 t outlook for the steel industry this year is favorable. While it i tr i rgins will continue under pressure, recent price in- creases will help m. First-quarter results were good and the strong showings reported fo e er mpanies may have been due to a general buildup in consume inventories as a hedge a st the possible strike. One of our favorites in this group, SHARON STEEL (38 , did exceptionally well in the first three months of 1968, with earn- ings rising to 1. 31 a share from in the year earlier period. Sharon completed a ten-year modernization program late in 1966. In a good steel yea the benefits of this would have been immediately apparent. However. 1967 was not a good steel year. Not only did demand slacken, but labor problems in the form of a truckers's strike delayed shipments. Poor weather conditions also worked to the disadvantage of the industry by delaying construction activities. These are considered non-recurring factors and served only to postpone business rather than to cancel it out altogether. This postponed business is now starting to be realized by the company, as indicated by first-quarter results. Management is optimistic over the current earnings trend continuing, and we are estimating results close to 5.00 a share for the current year, sharply above the 1. 87 a share repor1al for 1967, and the best results since 1956. If past history is any indication, Sharon's dividend rate, now at 1. 00 a share annually, should rise sharply over the next twelve months. Technically, Sharon's recent market performance gives the impression that it wants to move up A favorable pattern in the form of an ascending triangle has been created with a breakout around the level. Our initial price objective is 52 followed by a higher goal at 70. There is considerable downside support in the 37 -34 area. Currently selling for less than eight times possible 1968 earnings, these shares are considered attractive for purchase Dow-Jones Ind. 898.98 Dow-Jones Rails 246.42 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb This market letter la pubhshed for your convenience and mformatlon And is not an offer to sell or Il soliCitation to buy any seeuntle& ulScussed. The in- –.formation was obtained from sources we beht'Ve to be rehable, but we do not Inlarantee its accurRCY, Walston & Co., Inc and ita officers, directors or emplo),eeB may have an interest in or purchR.se and sell the seCllrltu'S referred to hetem WNIIOl —

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - May 24, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. LE Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 24, 1968 The mood of the financial community was profoundly bearish. The market had re- cently held in a narrow 7 trading range and the Dow Industrial Average had just broken this range and moved to a new low. Cash in the hands of institutional investors had risen to reco levels. Then the entire outlook changed following a televised speech by the President. The market's response was instantaneous. It rallied sharply with volume setting new records. Within three weeks it had rallied some 10 from the low. After a three-day correction, buying pressures again took over and the Dow again moved into new high terri- tory. The first thought in the minds of many would be that the above breathless rendition describes the market events of April and-early.May, -1968. -Actually, it-does not. The market described in this instance is the rally which occurred in January and February 1967, and the President's speech referred to was his State-of-the-Union message invoking the possibility of a tax increase. The similarities between the two rallies are interesting and, in fact, quite instructiv Prior to the rally in 1967 the Dow-Jones Industrials had held in a trading range between 827 and 783 throughout most of November and December 1966. This trading range was penetrated on the downside at year-end, and a new low at 776. 16 was scored on January 4, 1967, From this Iowa mild advance took the Dow back over the 800 level. This process consumed 44 trading days. In February and March 1968, the Dow had held in a range between 825 and 857. This range was broken by a new low at 817.61 on March 22nd followed by a three-day rally bringing the Index above 844. Thirty-three trading days had in this range. Then, in both instances, followed the President' lSbth cases, the rally was dramatic. It lasted for 13 days from the low in ad 5 . 968, with the index reaching peaks of 856 and 916 respectively. At each\Q.,Wse R 've peaks, short-term indicators recorded a record overbought condition. Ih ca ,the rally sharply pene- trated a declining 200-day moving average Action subsequent to the – Tli'!JI1'rion has also, so far, been remark1968; a four-day decline ensued again, moving ahead to a new peak of 935.68 on May 3rd. Sim' a tor January high was followed by a three-day de- cline after which a e 1 d ow to a peak of 871. 71 on February 9, 1967. From each of these highs e e a decline which proved to be rather mild. This history brings us up to the pr e , at least as far as May 1968 is concerned. To add a few f r figures, the January-February 1967 rally consumed 26 days and moved the Dow up . 3. It was followed by a 5 decline consuming 11 days and re- tracing 45 of the advance. The April-May 1968 rally moved the Dow ahead 14.4 in 28 trading days and the subsequent decline of 5. 3 required 11 trading days to retrace 42 of the total upswing. The above figures seem to suggest that it is at least possible that the aftermath in 1968 might be somewhat similar to the one in 1967. As we all know, 1967 was, at least through September, a reasonably good market year and the January rally of that year was only the forerunner of what turned out to be a highly favorable intermediate-term investment climate. We do not intend to argue in this instance that market history repeats itself exactly. Yet, as we said in our letter of April 11 th, it is a truism that intermediate-term upswings are made up of vigorous short-term rallies interrupted by relatively moderate declines, whereas downswings consist of persistent declines and rather tepid rallying phases. It is als true that, in general, the initial short-term rally of an intermediate-term upthrust tends to be especially strong and vigorous. In any case, the investment odds at this stage do appear to be highly favorable. If the parallel with early-1967 action continues, a fairly important low could well have been seen as of the middle of this week. Even were this low to fail to hold, downside risk at the moment appears limited to the 860 level intra-day. Under these conditions, we remain in- clined to favor an aggressive investment policy. Dow-Jones Ind. 895.28 Dow-Jones Rails 253.71 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ThIs market letter (8 published for your convenience and mformntlon nnd Is not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy nny securities thscussed The In- formation was obttLlned from sources we believe to be rehable. but we do not gunrll.ntee its accuracy Wal8ton & Co., Inc. nnd its officers. directors or employees may have an interest in or purchase and sell the referred to hel em. WNBOl

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - May 31, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

I I. W—a-l-sItnocn.&–C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 1110 OfF1CES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 31, STOKELY-VAN CAMP, INCORPORATED 1968 Current Price 60 My boys drink all… they want all Current Dividend 1. 00 through the game says Vince Lombardi of the Current Yield 1. 7 Green Bay Packers, in a recent ad. This is Long-Term Debt 1 Cum. Pfd. Stock Common Stock 9,343,000 764,356 shs. 2, 997,882 shs. true not only of the Packers but also the majority of other professional football teams, along with substantial segments of the National Basketball Association, National Hockey Leagu Sales-1969 -E Sales-1968-E 270,000,000 255,000,000 and Nation'al'and American Baseball Leagues, plus some sixty college football teams. The Earn. Per Sh. 1969-E Earn. Per Sh. 1968-E 3.25 2.75 product they drink is known as GATORADE, and it could turn out to be one of the most unique potables to hit the American market in Mkt. Range 1968-1967 603/4 – 195/8 quite some time. Its unusual potential, more- Fiscal year ends May 31st. Includes 7.4 million Convertible Debentures which, if converted, would increase common 9. over, creates, we think, an equally unusual investment opportunity in the common stock of its producer, Stokely-Van Camp, Inc. Gatorade was born out of extensive research carried on at the University of Florida (whose athletic teams are nicknamed the Gators) to combat thirst and dehydration, result- ing from profuse perspiration among athletes. A solution antly flavored, one of Gatorade's unique properties is its s to aBd various salts,pleasor bility to be absorbe by the body almost as quickly as it is drunk. This effects. First of all, it is effective at quickly relievi b io duces two important irst. ondly, it can be taken in copious amounts without danger of cramps f ,many professional athletes shave takenas much as a gallon and a l .f f e c e of a game. Most important, the debilitating loss'of energy produced e e p. spiration is and it is, indeed, a fact that many of the last season were known as fourth quarter teams. Despite its alre d Y athletic organizations, the surface of the poten- tial market for G een scratched. An obvious first step is the expansion of the institutional k a athletic teams, eventually broadening to the high school and junior high school e . he Armed Forces are still another potential sales target; and, of course, the most 1 ive possible market will ultimately be direct consumer sales. It is easy to see how the drink's use by professional athletes could make it appealing to all sorts of active people — perhaps with a promotional campaign similar to the one which has made Wheaties the breakfast of champions. An initial test marketing program will be commenced shortly in the Jacksonville, Florida, area, accompanied by extensive television and newspaper advertising. Of further interest is the possibility that, in addition to Stokely's non-carbonated version of the drink, Royal Crown Cola will produce a carbonated form, buying raw materials from Stokely. It should be noted also that, insofar as Stokely is concerned, Gatorade will be a relatively high- profit-margin product due in part to the company's being able to manufacture it in otherwise seasonal facilities. Despite recent strength in Stokely stock, it would appear that only a modest premium is being paid for the Gatorade potential, and the company would be intriguing as an investment entirely apart from its new product. An aggressive management has been highly successful in eliminating seasonal peaks and valleys, increasing acceptance of the Stokely label, moving into can manufacturing and turning around a hitherto-unprofitable frozen foods division. Unde this stimulus, profit margins have just shown their eighth consecutive annual increase and earnings per share have risen from in 1961 to an estimated 2.75 for the fiscal year ended just today. Comparison with other similar companies indicates that further expansion in marginsispossible. Thus, for the year to end May 31,1969, earnings could show another gain to the 3.00-3.25 range, entirely apart from any Gatorade contribution. Applying a con servative 15 multiple to these earnings would result in a price of just under 50; thus the pre- mium presently being paid for tlje potential is small. From a technical point of view the stock has a long range potential of 110 with support just under current levels. It is being added to our Recommended List for price appreciation. Dow-Jones Ind. 899.00 ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails 255.65 WALSTON & CO. INC.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - June 07, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &eo. – Members New York Stock Exchan98 and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 7, 1968 Last week saw the equity market put on what, lately, has come to be almost an accustomed show of strength. Some 17 points were added to the Dow Industrials in the fir03t two days of the week, and a 9-point drop on Wednesday was quickly erased by renewed strength on the final two days. Meanwhile, the Rail index chalked up a new 1968 high. Weekly volume, in the process, set an all-time peak. Let us make no bones about it. There is no point in underestimating the strength and vigor of the present stock market. The underlying strength perhaps requires unders(!oring at this time since it is not adequately being reflected in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, which is, of course, the most widely followed single .markeLindicator. , Now, long-time readers of this letter are aware that we have never indulged in the temptation to join the Knock-the-Dow Club – a fraternity with a broad membership among market commentators. We are fully aware of the fact that the Dow is a statistical monstrosit We are equally aware that it represents the fluctuations of only 30 stocks. Yet, pointing out these weaknesses is to overlook the Dow's two great strengths. These are, first of all, that it has been computed continuously over all of this century and is, in fact, the only major average with that long a history. (It should be pOinted out that experienced technicians look with some skepticism on back-computed indices. Standard & Poor's indices, for example, are available for the same period, but most of the computation was done in the middle 1950's) The Dow's second great strength is that, let us face it, it is the language most commonly understood by most investors. We ,would be willing to wager that not one in 10,000 readers of this letter will know, before they read the table below, Poor's 500 was. (We had to look it up when we constructed e hih in the Standard & 'Most readers, however are aware that, in the case of the Dow, it was, Getting back to the point of exercise, however, . Do f unrepresenta tive of the market strength. The table below s 5 sth el the Dow, Standard & Poor's 500, and our weekly breadth index based on a a s an clines at variops critical pOints. As the table quite clearly shows;-a c – ween the Dow'and'the'S&P has'been apparent for over a year. observation is the fact that on the rally from October 1966 to Septemb 1 e quite clearly recovered its entire loss and went 0,; to a new gh, w ak was well below its old high. From September of last year through f, 0 indices moved more or less in tandem, going to ne lows together in No 15, 'ng up highs (under the previous highs) in January, and again making new lows 'n ch. Still, even for this period, the S&P Index was somewhat stronger. However, in 11 and May the discrepancy became pronounced once more. The Dow failed to better its high of last Fall during May, while the S&P index bettered both the September 1967 high and the February 1966 high. Likewise, this week while the Dow was still holding below its peak of last month, the S&P moved on to a newall-time record level. The strength of the broader average is paralleled in our breadth index,which confirm- ed the strength in the S&P by moving above its January 1968 high last month and chalking up another new peak this week. It is now within an ace of establishing a confirmed uptrend by bettering its September 1967 peak. kl DJIA S&P 500 ri' aoth Feb. 1966 High 1001. 11 94.72 594 Oct. 1966 Low 735.74 72.28 487 Sept.1967 High 951 57 98.31 558 – – Nov. 1967 Low 839.40 90.09 530 DJIA S&P 500 Jan.1968 High 97. 84 Mar.1968 Low 817.61 86.99 May 1968 High 935.68 100.15 June 7,1968 High 920.84 101. 89 Weekly Breadth 550 518 551 555(E) We have, in short, if we look at the broader stock market indices or at the breadth in- dex rather than the Dow, a strong and confirmed uptrend .This is not to say that the market will be proof to reactions or even that deterioration and consequent vulnerability may not develop almost immediately. This, however, is sheer guess work. A fully invested position to take advantage of what appears to be the obvious trend at the moment, therefore, appears appropriate. NOTE The above was written before the announcement of higher margin requirements.While this may cause near-term weakness, the basic conclusions are, of course, not altered. Dow-Jones Ind. 914.88 Dow-Jones Rails 266.17 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter Is published for your convenience And InformatIOn Rnd is not an offer to sell or a Boilcllation to buy any secUrlties ,hscussoo The Information was obtained trom sources we believe to be rehable, but we do not InlfLrRntN! Its l.ccuracy, Walston & Co., Inc nnd Its officers, directors or emplOYee! may have an intereJIt in or purchase and sell the seCufltus referred to herem WNBOl

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc. FILE Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER loti OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 14, 1968 The silly season is with us again — has been with us for some time in fact – and it is, we suppose, time that due note was taken of the fact in this letter. We refer, of course, to the tumultuous activity and wide gyrations in a variety of what have come to be known as 'swinging' stocks — most of them on the ASE and Over-the-Counter, and engaged in wild, improbable businesses that very few people understand. The above paragraph opened this letter just eleven months ago on July 14, 1967, and it can equally well be used again today, for the same thing is happening again — redoubled and in spades. The Amex is boiling,and the frenzy in the Over-the-Counter market has, -un- believably, become even ,greater than last Summer's. To this familiar scenario .has been ad- ded a skyrocketing new issue market recalling the famous Don1t-go-broke-go-public motto of 1961. We are, as the financial pages seldom tire of telling us, in the midst of another era of unbridled and, to a great degree, senseless speculation. There is a common chain of reasoning running through all this. The chain runs (1) speculation is rampant; (2) speculation is bad; therefore, (3) we should worry about the stock market. A host of factors give rise to this chain, not the-least of which, we suppose,are the Puritan ethic and a remembrance of the events of the 19301s. The lesson is a valid one, but it can be oversimplified. To the technician, the relationship between periods of high speculative activity and stock market tops is a complex one and one best examined in the terms of numbers rather than emotion. There has, indeed, been an historical relationship between speculation and stock market peaks, yet the correlation is difficult to lchanging somewhat in recent years — a fact which does no n has been the task of stock market prediction any easier. At least until recently, most indices of spec e ai- tended to be so-called leading indicators. In other words, they be the popular averages. The table below shows the time of the peak in the – nes strial Average for the six major . market tops of -the past-32 years, in -three-widely-used indices of specu lative, confidence, total NYIE basis), ratio of Amex volume to NYSE volume, and the Standard & Po 1 Index. As the table quite clearly shows; through 1961 at least, s c i 1 – had a well-defined tendency to peak out in advance of the market. Dur- – -, – er words, it was profitable not to worry about specu lation, but rather to a 0 eculation coming to an end. A period of three to six month of reduced exuberance 110 g an outburst of enthusiasm generally constituted a pretty re- liable sell signal. This ationship was reversed, moreover, in 1966 when most indicators of speculative confidence peaked out after rather than before the Dow-Jones. Peak in Peak in Peak in Ratio of Amex Peak in S&P Low- DJIA NYSE Volume Volume to NYSE Vol. Priced Stock Index June, 1946 April, 1946 January,1946 February, 1946 January, 1953 February, 1951 July, 1952 January, 1952 July, 1957 May, 1955 March, 1957 April, 1956 January, 1960 April, 1959 March, 1959 March, 1959 November,1961 September,1961 June, 1961 May, 1961 February, 1966 I\pril, 1966 February, 1966 April, 1966 What then of the current speculative phase We are inclined to guess that the present phase may ultimately peak out, not as did 1966, but in a manner similar to the prior market tops. The continued market strength following a speculative upsurge has, generally in the past, been caused by a quite understandable phenomenon — the movement of speculative mone into investment-grade and! or cyclical issues. Thus, the Dow average, composed of such issue , has tended to reach its zenith at a later date than the more speculative indices. All of this generally takes place at a time when market breadth is deteriorating and when cash reserves in the hands of investing institutions have been fully expended. By contrast, at the moment, cash reserves are still at close-to-peak levels, and breadth has been unusually dynamic rathe than static. If this theory is correct, we can recognize the current speculative lunacy for what it is, without drawing overly-pessimistic conclusions as to the investment climate for the months ahead. Dow-Jones Ind. 913.62 Dow-Jones Rails 265. 58 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thl8 market letter i8 published for your convenaence and mformatlon Rnd Is not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy flny diSCUSsed The in- formatJon was obtained from sourees we believe to be reliable. but we do not guarantee Its aCCUrac)- Walston & Co., Inc nnd Its officers. directors or employees may have an interest In or purchR8e and sell the securities referred to herein WN801

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - June 21, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

———– Walston&- Co. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 21, 1968 AMERICAN & FOUNDRY CO. Current Price 22 1/8 The year 1968 is likely to be recorded Current Dividend 0.90 as a significant milestone in the history of Current Yield 4.10/0 AMF. For one thing, this will be the first Long-Term Debt 3. 90 Cum. Pfd. Stock Common Stock . Sales-1968-Est. Sa1es-1967 170,800,000 35,800 shs. 17, 028, 609 shs. 467,200,000 year that results of overseas operating su sidiaries will be consolidated into financial statements. This should help to accelerate AMF's already favorable growth pat -tern in reflecting the rapid-growthof over seas business which in turn mirrors the Earn. Per Sh. 1968-Est. 1. 40 – 1. 45 steadiiy rising standards of living in the Earn. Per Sh. 1967 1. 37 areas within which AMF operates. Mkt. Range 1968-1967 251/4-14 1968 also will be remembered as the year when AMF re-affirmed its former policy of growth-through-acquisition. Many of the company's present product lines were ac- quired as a result of merger and acquisition, but in recent years this trend had been deliber- ately slowed in favor of upgrading existing operations. Now that operations are flowing more smoothly, management again is turning its attention to new product areas that offer above- average growth. AMF's pri mary direction for expansion has been into the leisure time area and, as a re- sult, the company has established an important position products field. Included within ,the product line are such I e bi cles, hob!j)y toys an ,bowling supplies. This past March, AMF acquired acturers of the highly popular Sailfish and Sunfish fiberglass sailboats. Mo an 70 of these already are in use and demand appears to be accelerating r mg season. Alcort also manu- factures the a burgeoning ski craze, AMF recentl a . . boat. In to the J6f petitively priced fiberglass ski. Bowling activities now co t e a of income in reflection of the fairly expand. Since intro u '0 as led the field and currently has installed more than 100,000 pinsp tely one-third more than its closest competitor, the Brunswick Corporatl . Sales break down app . ately as follows Industrial products, including cigar and cigar ette, baking and oil fi equipment, 360/0; recreation products, 200/0; bowling, 180/0; and gov- ernment items, 260/0. Sharply increased government business was responsible for much of last year's 120/0 jump in revenues. However, profit margins were penalized. Great Britain's sterling devaluation also worked to the disadvantage of 1967 earnings. For the current year, sales are expected to break above the 500 million level for the first time, rising to a pro- jected 535 million, while earnings are estimated to be the highest since 1961's 1. 70 a shar probably approximating the 1. 40 to '1. 45 a share level. First-half results may be somewha adversely affected by a strike currently in progress, but order backlogs suggest this will be more than made up in the second half. The 90 annual dividend, maintained for almost 7 yea now, should be considered a candidate for liberalization in line with normal company payout policy. . From the technical view, AMF has formed a base of considerable extent over the last several years during which accumulation has apparently been in progress. With the marking up stage now believed to be in the early phases and a price objective initially around 30,fo1lowed by a higher goal in the mid-50's, accompanied by firm underlying support at 20-18, these shares again are recommended for purchase. AMF is in the Price Appreciation sectio of our Recommended List. We are removing four issues from our Recommended List this week. We suggest accept- ance of profits in Eagle Picher Ind. and SChlumberger. Squibb Beech-Nut entered our list when it was spun off from Olin Mathieson and we feel that the funds might profitably be em- ployed -elsewhere. In addition, we are disappointed with the technical action of Communica- tions Satellite and are thus removing it also. Funds realized from the sale of these issues could be utilized for the purchase of AMF, or other issues on our Recommended List such a American Bakeries, Great Northern Paper, First Charter Financial, Robertshaw Controls and Stokely-Van Camp, Inc. Dow-Jones Ind. 900. 93 Dow-Jones Rails 264. 15 HAlUW W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - June 28, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 28, 1968 Last week saw a definite dampening of the ebullience which had characterized the stock market to a greater or lesser degree since April Fool's Day. Despite the loss of momentum, however, what occurred was not, so much,a downswing but, rather, a cessation of the rise and a rather sizable shift in market leadership. In terms of the popular averages, actually, the week was more or less of a standoff. The Dow-Jones Industrials, which the previous Friday had closed at 900.93, wound up at 897.80; the Rails closed at 201. 77 versus 264. 15 a week ago, and the Utilities wound up the week at 132. 60 a 133.44 ;lose on tended-to outnumber ad- vances on all four trading days, but the margin generally was not great, the poorest per- formance being turned in on Tuesday when 480 stocks advanced as against 860 which dropped in price. On the other three days, the differential was less than 200. That there was some vitality remaining in the market was evidenced by the significant number of new highs which occurred on most days. On Thursday, some 82 stocks chalked up new 1968 peaks, including a liberal number of issues whose names had been strangers to the new- high list during the early part of the year. Prominent, for example, were a number of electric and gas utilities, issues which have hardly been considered swingers by the invest- ment community to date. The performance of the utility group, actually, has been rather interesting. The Dow-Jones Utility Average closed on Monday, June 17th, a Five trading days later, on June 24th, it had advanced to 134.27. This adva 0 is roughly 7.2 or the equivalent of a 60-point rise in the r al. . easonable to specu- late that lf the industrials had advanced anything lik oin 0 a five-day period that the fact would have been rather widely he valent utility advance went, unnotieed. ou.side In the process of its advance, ct l(ijJ- ompany index actually produced a breakaway gap sort of a – week ago. This formation is strikingly reminiscent of the simi b t industrial index at the end of March when the present advance be a 0 lar superstition, incidentally, if this gap is truly of a breakaway nat t 0 lkely that it will notbe filled; i. e. there is no necessity for the imle to the area, around129, where the gap took place. At almost the e time as the dull utilities were moving ahead in a straight -line advance, so-called glamour issues were displaying their characteristic volatility — this time on the downside. Control Data, which had posted a high of 174 as recently as mid-June, wound up the week at 148 1/4, and this performance was, by and large, typical of a host of stocks that had been market leaders since mid-February. By and large, the improved action of a great many higher grade issues — the utilities are only one example — war, noticeable during the past couple of weeks. We have talked before in this space about the necessity for rotational leadership in the market and, at the risk of becoming boring, we think it worthwhile to stat e again that the emergence of new leadership is crucial to a sustained market rise. The hightechnology leaders of the 1967 advance have, by and large returned to prices approximately equalling the levels they had re.ached a year ago — levels from which they subsequently declined, in some cases, 300/0 to 500/0. We do not think it reasonable to suppose that, from current levels, they have sufficient vigor to move the market to any great degree. What must take place at this stage, if the advance is to be sustained, is a more widespread investor recognition of the prospects of hitherto neglected groups. If this takes place, and we see no reason why it shOUld not, we think that the lllvestment climate for the coming months can continue to be extremely favorable. Dow-Jones Ind. 897.80 Dow-Jones Rails 261. 77 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thus market letter is I)uhllshed for your COtlVlmence Rnd )nfOrmflhon Rnd )'l not an offel to seU or I SOhCltatlOn to buy In 'eCUntle, ,hcussed The Information was obtained from sources we beheve to be rehabl but we do not guarante(! Its accurllC Wal'lton 8. Co, Inc and It, ofikels, dlrcct)rs or etnDJoyees may have an Interest ltl or purchlLIe And sell the secuntu's I eferred to hel elf' WN301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

W—a-lIsntocn.-&-C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 3, 1968 Wall Street folklore has it that markets prior to long week-ends are generally dull affairs, but Wednesday's session, preceding a four-day hiatus, gave lie to the myth. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average chalked up a 6. 67 point advance; 991 stocks advanced vs. only 332 declines; and volume was 14,390,000 shares, a decided gain over recent trading sessions. All this took place at a time when most shortterm indicators, after twelve listiess trading days, had retreated to oversold territory, lending credence to the belief that a new short-term upswing may have begun. If this is the case, a tentative upside objective for the Dow might be 940-950 The following three issues, one'from each,three sections of our Recommended List, appear particularly attractive at the present time. INTERNATIONAL PAPER (34 5/8) – The move on the part of professional investors of managed funds from highly speculative, glamor-type stocks toward relatively undervalued dividend paying blue chip type stocks has been a factor in the recent market performance of IP, one of the issues in the Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List. The world' largest manufacturer of paper products, International is expected to report a rebound in earnings this year, perhaps to around the 2.20 to 2.25 a share level, up from the de- pressed 2. 03 of 1967. This improvement,plus the announced intention that the company ac- tively is seeking acquisitions and has been acquiring its own shares for use in facilitating such moves, has improved the market prospects considerably and focused investor attention on this long-ignored issue. Natural-resources stocks in interest at present due to continuing fears of world-wide n t above-average alance 'and Inter- national Paper, as an owner of more than seven f 0 ds and the holder of cutting rights to an additional 15 million acres, pro ding asset value that would afford considerable protection during rse ta imates. Technically, IP has been forming abe cons' able extent since the low was reached-in -1966. The e – mpanied by-a markup in prices. but our price objective, the by a higher goal near 90, suggests tha the stock continues to merit c i . at prevailing market levels. AMERICAN BA ) Whatever happens, people still have to eat' This thought has been . t the favorable showing that food stocks have enjoyed in recent months. h a tocks have risen sharply, current price levels suggest e e upside potential. One of the more attractive in this area is American Bakeries, a sue in the Price Appreciation section of the Recommended List, ABA has completed its huge modernization program and profit margins already have started to reflect the operating efficiencies. For the current year, earnings are estimated to rise to between 2. 20 and 2.30 a share, from 1. 80 last year. With the current dividend affording a return well below the 6/0 average of the last 15 years, some increase in the present 1. 00 annual rate is antiCipated, especially now that requirements for modernization will be less- ened, From the technical view, a chart breakout took place at 30, indicating an initial price objective at 40, followed by a higher objective at 62. There is considerable support at 28, limiting potential risk. We recommend purchase of ABA at the market. VICTOREEN (18 5/8) – The impressive uptrend in sales and earnings that started back in 1965 is expected to continue throughout 1968 and 1969. Compared with 78 a share on revenues of 45 million in 1967, results this year could see earnings rise to near 1. 00 a share while sales could approximate 60 million. The reason for this favorable trend has been Victoreen's vigorous acquisition program of recent years. Accompanying this diversi- fication has been a broadening of existing product lines. One of VIC's new products controls the release of X-rays from color TV sets, Now in field-testing, this one item could prove to be an important contributor to earnings if adopted by a leading TV manufacturer. With acqui sitions still being sought, new products being introduced and operating efficiency being upgraded, these shares appear to offer attractive capital gains potential for speculative-minded a c c oTheutecnhnictalspO.S.ition shows a pattern of accumulation go.mg back two years. There is only light overhead supply between current levels and our initial price objective around 22, There is a higher price goal in the mid-30's and downside support at 16. Dow-Jones Ind. 903.51 Dow-Jones Rails 266.88 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. rle hl8rket letter la published !-or your convenienee and Information and Is not an offer to sell or a soliCItation to buy an), securities J scuued Th I A VV'll1 aVrn-&was .o.btained from aoUlCes we believe to be rellablt'. but we do not guarantee Ita nceuraey Wallton & Co Inc and ita om I dl ……. e n- IntereAt In or purchase and &ell the lIecu.rities referred to herem. '.' cers, r………re or WN3Ct

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 12, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 12, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - July 12, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

W—a-l-sItnonc.&–C-o-. riLE Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OYER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET lETTER July 12, 1968 The practice of stock market forecasting is a hazardous one at best, and beset with a great many pitfalls and temptations. One of the temptations continually facing those called upon to comment on the equity market is to waste time with factors that are either inconse- quential or irrelevant. Two examples of this tendency which have presented themselves in recent weeks come to mind. The first is the widespread disappointed comment at the lack of follow-through shown the price advance which featured Thursday morning's trading. It will be recalled that the two opening days of the week, following the sharp rise on July 3rd prior to the long week- – . 'end, had ket ane-ad-snarply 'iIldiceSWifh…..h-e-number of- advancing stocks sharply outnumbering those declining. This advance continued on Thursday morning with the Dow reaching an intra-day high of 933.83. Volume in the first hour set another one of the new records that have been a commonplace feature of the turnover statis- tics of late. However, the advance died out in the afternoon with most of the gains being give up and actually, by the end of the day, declining stocks slightly outnumbered those advancing. Friday's action was desultory with the average posting a modest drop and advances and de- clines just about even. This kind of short-term action tends, of course, to bring forth all sorts of profound comments, but the fact is it doesn't really mean very much. There are a great many other factors a great deal more indicative of the short-term prospects for the market among which we think, are the following. From the timing pOint of view, first of all, the advance has been, in effect, only some six days — since July 2nd. There is al s vJi.sal tendency for short-term trends to run considerably longer than e e 20-25 trading days. Secondly, lJlost available projections indicate sr m projections for the averages and for individual stocks. The DOWrfeixf e, e, in Wednesday's trading, out of the congestion area at 892-920, which d ine since mid-May. A reasonable . price projection for this ba-se – – e . -he 940-950 range to be-reached wiih- out too much difficulty. upside objective of 104 versus i Poor 500 continues to have a near-ter 1' 102.34. Thirdly, the advance had, until – the latter two 1000 stocks advan n J t 'n, showed above-average breadth with almost uly 8th, and a reasonably good plurality of advances over declines on Jul e st plausible short-term forecast, therefore, would ignore Thursday's and Friday w ness and call for generally higher prices to be achieved in the near future. Enough of the snort-term.comments. The longer-term outlook has also been confused, we think, by a number of essentially irrelevant factors. Among these is the now-widespread talk about a business slowdown of some nature in the second half of 1968. We confess to no fixed opinion on this subject — indeed, most of the concrete forecasts we have seen for the last two quarters of the present year are distinguished largely by their impreciseness. Over- all profits will be down, it seems, but no one is quite sure how much; and furthermore there will be a great many exceptions, etc., etc., etc. All this is very nice, but ignores the fact that any attempt to correlate short-term earnings levels to stock prices constitutes one of the most fruitless intellectual exercises possible. This is especially so in today's market where a ma!ly issues essentially unexp!oited ant! t!J.e funds moving into these issues could well produce conSiderably better price levels without any great changes in the overall earnings picture. Again, we think there are a number of more important factors that bear on the stock market outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond. These include the impressive tech- nical evidence cited repeatedly in this letter that the advance which started last April is like- ly to be at least of intermediate-term, and very possibly longer-term, duration. Equally im- portant is the fact that to date no important signs of a distributional phase of the market have as yet appeared and, indeed, the breadth and vigor shown on an intermediate-term basis have been, if anything, greater than the analyst would have a right to expect. It is, in summar early in the game to take anything other than a constructive attitude toward the stock market. Dow-Jones Ind. 922.46 Dow-Jones Rails 265.82 ANTHONY W. T ABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb TbIB market letter Is publiahed for your convemence and Information and Is not an olter to sell or a !l()hcltatlon to buy any &eeUrttie8 dl8CUSeed. The in- formation was obtained from we believe to be rehable, Dut we do not guar'Ult e its .lceuracy. Walston & Co., Inc and its officers. directors or I

Download PDF