Viewing Month: October 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - October 04, 1968
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Walston &Co. —-Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 4, 1968 The stock market went up last week — so what else is new Actually, a number of things. The Standard & Poor's Composite,the New York Stock Exchange Index and the American Stock Exchange Index all moved during the week to new all time highs. The Dow Industrials, which have been the feature of the rally so far, moved to a 2 1/2-year peak, finally surpassing their high level of September, 1967. The advance to highs for these averages was confirmed by our weekly advance/ decline line, and the daily advance/ decline line moved closer to such a confirmation. The only average lagging the centage somewhat was the Dow-Jones Rails which, at its week's high of 275.14 was slightly ail1967 02. , Notthat is sweetness-and'l(ghC 'Breadth could be better, and there-is some evi- dence (see below) that, on a very short-term basis, the advance may be running out of steam. There are, moreover, a few distributional patterns in evidence. These, however, seem to over/ihadowed by the tremendously strong chart formations of the majority of stocks, es- pecially those in the highgrade sector. D-J Low D-J High Adv. S&P Low S&P High '10 Adv. Jan. -Feb. 1967 776.16 871. 71 12.3 79.43 89.00 12.0 Apr.-May 1967 838.98 915.07 9.1 87.86 95.25 8.4 21 June-July 1967 853.21 933.14 10.9 90.08 96.67 7.3 28 Aug. -Sept. 1967 887.83 951. 57 7.2 92.01 98.31 6.8 19 Nov. 1967-Jan.1968 839.40 921. 87 9.8 90.09 97.84 8.6 33 Mar. -May 1968 817.68 935.68 14.4 86. 1Jl. 15.1 40 Aug. -Oct. '68 (to date) 863.33 957.30 10.8 96. 3S' 7.8 32 It is interesting to compare the rally which u th with its predecessOlj'1! since the beginning of 1967. As can be seen, from th able a , it has lasted 32 days — about par for the course, based on recent rcentage advance to date fails to match the early-1967 rally or in line with. or r F s Day advance of this year; but is – t '1- c!jlW nents ofthe longer-term upswing. performance on the Dow that of the Standard & Poor's but, as the table shows, this is t a n,ing phase. To date, it has been in declining markets that the br a i t d to do considerably better than the Dow. At the mom r ' n Idence that any correctionary phase will be other than a mild one in view of hl he ng-term objectives for those individual issues. Strong sup- port now exists in the D t the 920-900 level. We are remo from our Recommended List ten stocks whose performance is lated below. In two cases (Canada Dry and Continental Insurance) the removal price is ad- justed to reflect securities received on merger. Since December 31, 1964, 151 recommen- dations have been made in this list of which 107 have advanced and 44 declined. A complete record is available at your Walston Office and, obviously, no implication is made as to future results. Commissions are not included. Stock List Price & Date Recommended Current Price 0/. 0/0 Change DJA Change Same Period IAllc!lor Hocking Canada Dry Continental Ins. General Dynamics Gulf Oil Lorillard Spec. Apprec. Apprec. Quality Apprec. Quality Quality Spec. 191/8 (2/2/68) 53 (11/18/66) 33 793/8 (3/17/67) 35 (12/31/64) 58 1/2 (12/31/64) 51 1/2 (9/8/67) 17 (12/31/64) 16 1/8 – 15.7 72 35.8 ,7.!8adj) 32.4 131 (adj) 65.0 47 1/2 35.7 82 3/4 41. 5 675/8 31. 3 553/8 225.8 10.4 8.5 10.4 9.6 9.0 9.0 5.0 9.0 Quality 883/8 (5/21/65) Apprec. 21 3/8 (12/31/64) 1373/4 223/8 55.2 4.7 3.3 9.0 51.1 8.3 Dow-Jones Ind. 952.95 In()w-.T()n,' Rails 273.04 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. WT'amb Tbla market lettel' la published for rour (!onvenlence and Information And 18 not an oft'er to Bell or a eoIlc1tation to buy any aeeurltlea lh!Cuued, The formation WlUI obtained from eources we beheve to be reliable, but we do not guaral'ltee Ita l.ceurac),. Walston & Co Inc. and Ita officera. dlrectora or mlJ have an JnterM In or purchase and sell the J!eCurltiell referred to herein.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - October 11, 1968
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Walston &Co.;;,;;,.;; Inc …..–;.. FIL6 Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER October 11, 1968 The fact. that the overbought condition of the market a week ago has, so far, not been substantially corrected, suggests a further extension of the short-term decline that started underway this past week. As previously stated, the anticipated decline should be one of limited extent and should prove helpful in creating a more healthful market climate — one that could foster a strong rise in equity prices before the end of this year. In view of this condition, we continue to advise that clients husband cash reserves, temporarily, awaiting a buying level that would prove more advantageous than that now afforded. In last week's letter we announced removal from our Recommended List of ten issues. Cash generated from the be addedto reserves. In coming weeks,wewill be tions to the Recommended List. A brief review of seleCted stocks-alr'eady on our Recommenc-I ed List follows. PHILLIPS PETROLEUM (68 ), along with international oils in general, has put on an impressive market performance in recent months, rising some 20-plus since July. This rise came in the face of expected lower earnings for the year, now estimated at around 4,.60 a share, vs. 4.71 last year. However, most oil analysts anticipate a rebound in 1969. Addingto the attraction of this issue is its participation in potentially oil-rich areas such as Alaska's northern slope. With a price objective still set at 86 initially, Phillips continues to be attractive for investment purchase. PACIFIC PETROLEUMS (21 ) ,45 owned by Phillips Petroleum, is another issue ben- efiting from the renewed interest in oils. Having already risen 50 from the June low, the outlook is for continued market strength in'reflection of net income, nowesti\ mated at around for 1968, vs. last year, an ampli ' d fatl911 program and \ steadily increasing crude oil production. pur price a ci e 0 above 30 and with good support in the 20-18 area, the stock remal s attra e purchase. AMERICAN MACHINE & FOUNDRY in the market limelight of late, rising almost 30 just in the last m.onth. ov s exceptional in the light of a dis- 1-10 – to its bowling business. and'satisfactory earnings outl Outlook for 1968 on AMF currently se 0lil that due to AMF's strong have no effect on the common dividend. 0 ings estimated at the highest level since 1961. With e discount from our 35 price objective, the stock war- rants consideration rc . ' BURLINGTON I U IES ( 49) has shared the renewed enthusiasm for textile stocks that characterized of the market in recent months. The basis for this optimism would seem well founded in view of ,earnings estimates centering on the 3. 10 level, up sharply from 1967's depressed 2.30 a share. The recently increased quarterly dividend, now at can be considered a for further liberalization in coming months. The favorable chart pattern for BUR continues to a price objective at 76. MEDUSA PORTLAND CEMENT (40 ), despite the unexpectedly lower earnings fore- cast for the quarter recently ended, remains an attractive issue in the building products category. While at present it is difficult to make an accurate earnings estimate, we would continue to hold MPD and recommend adding to commitments on any additional weakness. There is good support in the 40-'38 area, with major support at 30. Our price objective re- maio ns at 4 6 . ,' . ' , , , , , '0,0,. , SHARON STEEL's (48) almost dramatic rise of recent months can-beattrilJuted to-tne -, – marriage proposed by NVF C,orporation via a tender offer. However, management has recommended that its stockholders reject the tender offer. Recent news that Sharon has been approached by Alloys Unlimite'd has brought forth a no-comment from SSH management, but Sharon's optimistic earnings potential undoubtedly makes it an attractive merger candi- date. This, together with the 90ntinuing bullish chart pattern and a price objective at 52, followed by a higher goal at 7i, suggests retention of the stock, and even purchase on any ..'near-term w.ea k n e s s . , . A,n up-to-date edition of our. Recommended List is now in preparation and will be issue shortly. .,' Dow-Jones Ind. 949.59. Dow-Jones Rails 269.46,' i0 , HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. J. This market letter is pubhshed for your convenience and mformAtlon and is not nn offer to sell or a l\()itcltatlOn to buy any securities dLscussed. The In formation was obtained from sources VIoe believe. to be rehable, hut we do not guarantee its accuracy Walston & Co Inc, and Its officers. directors or AWTHWLamo 'em..1!!0Yees mID' have I\ll interest in or IluFchase and sell the referred to helem, WN'O'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - October 18, 1968
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Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock 'and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND oveRSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 18, 1968 Continuipg optimism over indications that a potential bombing.haltmay be in the offing in the Vietnam conflict was reflected in the market's moving to a new 1968 closing high. Whether the market call close the gap that now remains between the present level and the all- time closing high of 995, 15 without being subjected to a selling phase, remains to be seen. Any selling phase that does enter, should it do so, would be contained, in our opinion, within reasonable limits and not do harm to the presently bullish stance of the .market itself. This letter has referred repeatedly, over the course of the Summer, to the obvious shifts in leadership taking place in equity markets. The changes, of course, have been dra- mati e-enoughto stru wMt–t(oi-'H,,-J be taken of the market upswing which began last April. Meanwhile, as the upswing progresses, cross-currents begin to be more pronounced. great many industry groups and stocks, which have above-average attraction on a long-term have passed through, are passing through, or may shortly pass through, short-term downswings which will provide attractive opportunities to establish or increase positions. We are, therefore, commencing this week a review of individual industry groups which will be continued in subsequent issues until all groups have been covered. Aerospace issues have, by and large, been in downward or, at best, neutral trends since the September 1967 highs, and, while risk appears low at present depressed levels, there is no indication of any immediate reversal. By and large, issues in the group should be switched, Exceptions to this rule might be Northrop, Martin-Marietta — which benefits from its identification witli the building industry — and the s. Airline stocks constitute a dilemma for the time. From the of 1967 to the Summer of these were genal stocks entire Board, with ma-rkdowns of 500/0 being the ru the exception. A sharp .nH.lV from the ensuing deeply oversold – di the past few weeks, and in- are that this rally could continue before running its course. While convinced,that.the prese '''''I'' confidEmcein the– meaningful uptrend. We confess to no uldlp'!'ef'er continued avoidance of the group and IW(JUl,a utilize further' positions or leftover long-term holdings. perfect example of a fairly common cla'ss in today's pa,tentilal is large, but where relative strength is horren- immediate move is indicated. Relative improvement can place very se, as a number of groups have already shown us this year, there is as yet, 'no sign of it here. Patient long-term holders should retain pOSitions, but more aggreSSive 'inve'stors will undoubtedly find immediate upside action elsewhere. Most Apparel issues have done well in recent markets, and would have to be rated strong holds. Bobbie Brooks (25 ) appears most attractive for purchase at the present time. Auto issues do not present clearcut patterns at the moment, but the odd's seem to the -upside, with important moves not at 'all beyond the realm of possibility. ImOl,catlc.rts that the 1969 model year may exceed earlier expectations add fundamental attrac- ss to the group and we would not be adverse to seeing major auto stocks in portfolios at time. American Motors ( 14 ), on our Recommended List, continues to provide an attrac- -speculation on the company's – ability to gain , an increased market share– a…nd, wi-th its high leveraged position, show dramatic earnings gains.' ' Auto Equipments generally reflect the picture in the auto industry on which they de- nd arid thus, in most cases, 'indicate higher levels. Arvin Industries (46 ), on'our Recom- Imended'List, has an upside target of 48 and Champion Spark Plug (34) and Eaton Yale & appear 'attractive for purchase at this time. Baking. American Bakeries (33) continues as an attractive special situation with a over 60. ', Businee;sMacnine issues are now at a pronounced downtrend relative to the market considering the high levels of most of these stocks III relation to current earning power, are probably'better orf'switched into cheaper and more attractive i'ssues. '. Ind. ' 967.4'9 IDc)w,Jones Rails 27, 2.46 ,. '., ;.;.. an ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. and informatIOn and IS not an offer to sell or a SOhClt.ation to buy any be rehable. but we do not. guarantee Its l.ccuracy. Walston & Co. Inc. &ell the securLtJeq referred to helem \ ,r .7 '

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - October 25, 1968
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Walston &Co, —';-Inc. – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 25, 1968 We are continuing herewith the review of individual industry groups begun in last week's letter. . Building. Price gains in these issues have been dramatic since the 1967 lows, with increases of 100 or more not uncommon. Nonetheless, long-term objectives in almost all cases are well above current levels and these issues should constitute an important part of any portfolio. The stocks have been weak lately and appear to be about halfway through short- 1 term corrections, thus providing attractive purchase opportunities on weakness. Some possibl downside targets are' Flintkote (31) 28, Johns Manville (77) 70, Certainteed (34) 32, and U. S. ;1' !, Gypsum (86) 85. All of the above issues would be attractive purchases on weakness to the A number of OUler groups for example, have moved sideways recently and we still consider issues in this group attract i'l I' I ive on dips. At recent lows, most Savings & Loan issues were at or close to downside objectives and we would continue to use weakness to add to pOSitions in this group. . Chemical stocks show strong indications of having reversed the long-term downtrend WhlCh has characterized the group for almost a decade, and we think selected issues are at- II' ! I II II tractive for purchase at this time. We would concentrate on DuPont (171) and Monsanto (56) in preference to Allied (37), Union Carbide (46) or Dow (83). Air Reduction (31), one of the ! II more disappointing issues on our Recommended List, has shown some early signs of techni- cal improvement and appears again worthy of consideration. 1 Cosmetic stocks have shown worsening relative action throughout almost all of 1968. I In the past month some issues in the group have displayed . oraYing tendencies and have moved up to prices just under their Summer highs. We thi teo Hrl.lity of a double top here is a real one, and we would utilize the current en 0 e es. . The Drug group is mixed and it is impossibl lk ence to the various individual patterns. Q e stocks except by refer Electrical Equipment stocks generall t spiring technical patterns. Some has been noted in Gener r cently. and the stock has a ppssible objective of 124 although former in.the group.c,ontinues b 0 v.c will slow action. The outstanding per(62) (on our Recommended List) which has an upside ta t Electronic' i . f argest industrial categories on the Board in terms of number of stocks in a e are technical patterns of all types in individual issues. In general, however, th s are typical examples of issues which were market leaders through 1967 and whic m to have abdicated their upside leadership since that time. Many price! earnings ratios are still above average historically, and we would continue to counsel avoidance of the majority of stocks. As a major sub-group within this area, Television stocks generally look uninteresting, with the notable exception of Magnavox (58), which has an upside objective of 110. Farm Equipment stocks have recently begun to act better relative to the market than they have for some time. The two major companies have been holding in trading ranges -Deere (58) between 50 and 60 and International Harvester (37) between 32 and 40, for most of this year, and ability to break out of these ranges would indicate higher levels. It is too earl however, to forecast a definite breakout at this stage and we would prefer to be buyers on weakness to the bottom of the ranges mentioned. Finance Companies, one of the betterperforming.groups in the past year still rate as holds. Beneficial Finance (49) has an upside objective of 75 and Household (46) one of 58. Food Chains are, at the moment, one of the more attractively situated groups from a technical point of view. The bases are substantial and relative action is above average. We would regard Safeway Stores (27), Von's Grocery (28), and Jewel Companies. (47), as attract ive for purchase at the moment with First National Stores (38) and Great Atlantic & Pacific (31) being attractive speculations on an earnings turn-around. Allied Supermarkets (21) is a interesting special situation based on their operation of the food departments in Kresge's K-mart discount stores. Food Stocks offer defensive value and, in many cases, attractive upside potentials. H. J. Hemz (64) has an upside target of 116, Del Monte (36) 60 over the long term, and Nation , Dairy (44) has an upside target of 68. ;J Dow-Jones Ind. 961. 28 . ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails 268.40 WALSTON & CO. INC .. Thlo market letter is pubhshed for your convemence Rnd mformRtlOn Rnd not nn offer to sell or It soiLcltatlon to buy an)- se.'uritles discussed. The m- formation was obtained from sources v.e beheve to be reliable, but we do not guarantee Its nccuracy Walston & Co. Inc. and iu officers. directors or employee!!! may have an interest In or purchase and sell the seCUrities referred to hClem WN.801 .'Alil,ltG.'''' aI n ….,… ,&'.

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