Viewing Month: January 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 03, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 03, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - January 03, 1968 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - January 03, 1968 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - January 03, 1968 page 3
View Text Version (OCR)

, W—-a–l-s-tloncn–&–C–o–. j Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchang8 OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST January 3, 1968 This edition of our Recommended List tallies the price performance of all recommended stocks over the past two years. As usual, the list is divided into three categories Quality and Long-Term Growth, Price Appreciation, and Speculative Price Appreciation. Included at the bottom of the tabulation after each category are all stocks removed from the list during the year 1967. The list, therefore, covers all stocks on our Recommended List a year ago and all those recommended during the year. In addition, the performance of stocks removed during 1965 and 1966 is averaged at the bottom of eachlist.- The first two columns show the recommendation date and price. In cases where the recommendation took place before December 31, 1964, this is used as a base date. The third column shows the price on December 29, 1967, or on the date removed if the stock is not now on the list. The fourth column shows the percentage change, and tIE fifth column shows the percentage change in the Dow-Jones Industrials during the same time period. The tabulation speaks for itself. The stocks in the Quality and Long-Term Growth section of the list show an average rise of 8.2/0 vs. an average rise of 6.4/0 in the Dow-Jene Industrials. The stocks in the Price Appreciation section show an average gain of 36/0 vs. a 3/0 gain in the Dow, and in the Speculative Price Appreciation section, the average gain is 62/0 vs. a 3.1/0 gain for the Dow. These summaries are, of course, not meant to imply that such results could have been obtained by purchase of issues in the Recommended List, or that similar results will be obtained by purchase in the future. Commissions are, of course, not included. ., QUALITY – . – Price-as of date Date Recom- Recom. mended Alum. Co.Amer. 5/3/65 71 7/8 Amerada 8/16/67 80 Amer. Tel & Tel 9/7/65 67 Borden Co 9/8/67 38 1/2 Caterpillar Tr 9/8/67 47 Colgate Palm. 3/1'7/67 29 3/4 Columbia Broad. 11/18/66 57 Cont'l Ins. Cont'l Oil Del Monte Fed. Dept. St. 3/17/67 79 3/8 3/17/67 68 3/4 9/8/67 34 3/4 11/17/67 697/8 Goodyear Tire Gulf Oil Intern'l Paper Kellogg Lorillard Nat'l Cash Reg. Parke Davis Phillips Pete Radio Corp. Reynolds Tob. 6/17/66 51 12/31/64 58 1/2 6/29/65 31 9/8/67 38 5/8 9/8/67 51 1/2 5/21/65 88 3/8 4/22/66 36 1/2 3/17/67 55 9/8/67 56 5/8 12/31/64387/8 Royal Dutch 12/31/64453/S American Can 12/31/64 43 Stocks removed in 1966-65 (filve) AVERAGE & LONG TERM Price-12/29/67 or date /0 Hemoved Change 80 1/2 11 80 5/8 50 3/8 – 24 35 1/8 43 3/8 44 3/8 54 1/2 80 1/4 74 3/8 35 1/2 75 54 3/8 76 3/8 30 3/4 42 1/2 48 133 26 1/2 67 53 3/8 44 1/4 47 5/8 55 1/2 -9 -7 50 -4 1 8 2 7 6 30 10 -7 50 – 27 21 -5 13 -5 29 4. 50/0 8.2 GROWTH 'Change DJlA same — Time Current Period Comment – 2 Buy for 110 – 190. – 1 Buy for 130. -.3 Hold – .3 Buy on dips. -.3 Buy on dips. 4 Hold for 52-62. 12 Hold 4 Buy on dips. Obj. 108. 4 Buy on dips. Obj. 91-130. -.3 Buy on dips. Obj. 70. 5 Buy for 90 – 124. 1 Buy for 82. 3 Hold for 90. 7 Buy on dips. 42 indo 90. 3 Buy for 82. -. 3 Support 44-42. – 2 Hold for 175. – 5 Hold. 4 Buy-Dips. Obj. 110-124. -. 3 Buy for 98. 3 Buy on dips. 50 120. 3 Buy for 90. 6 Removed from list 6. 4 ThiS Bulletln is publishtd for your convcnitnct' Rnd mformatlon Rnd 16 not an offer to sell or 1\ sohcltl\tlOn to buy 1\1lY secunties diSCUSSed. The Information was obtluned from sources we bd ….vt' to iN. lelwblc. but WI! do not gllaTllntt'(. 11.5 RI'CUM\ry. Walston t.. Co. Inc. I\nd Its officers. directors or emplOYee!! Illay have an mterelll III or purchase I\nd !Sell the st!cUntles rl'ferrlt!. to herCIn Wtl-916 . – ' , Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER HIO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELl'S RECOMMENDED LIST PRICE APPRECIATION Adams Millis Air Reduction Allegheny Lud. Amer. Bakeries Amer. Mach. F. Amer. Potash Price as of date Date RecomRecom. mended 3 h 7 /67 22 4/22/66 363/8 11/18/66 56 9/8/67 263/4 9/8/67 227/8 6/29/65 39 Price 12/29/67 or date Removed 62 778 345/8 703/4 241/8 207/8 50 Ampex Corp. Anaconda Anchor HOck. 6/30/67 361/8 9/8/67 493/8 11/18/66 53 35 5/8 47 3/8 44 Bulova Watch Burlington Ind. Cincin. Milling Commonw'thal 9/8/67 11/17/67 11/18/66 3/17/67 30 41 1/8 31 263/8 293/4 39 57 1/4 225/8 Comsat 3/10/67 61 1/4 Copperweld StEel. 12/31/64 26 3/8 Dentists Supply 10/27/67 43 491/2 22 5/8 45 1/2 Diners Club 9/8/67 401/8 481/4 Dresser Ind. 3/17/67 32 1/2 38 1/8 Eagle Picher 2/3/67 331/4 403/8 Eaton Yale 12/31/64 21 5/8 33 Ex-Cell-O — -4/19/66-22–1/2-371/4- Gen'l Dynamics 12/31/64 35 661/4 Gillette Co. 11/15/65 37 62 1/4 Gt. North. Paper 3/17/67 37 3/4 52 Kelsey-Hayes Koppers Co McNeil Corp. Mead Johnson 11/18/66 12/31/64 9/8/6'1 3/17/67 29 27 1/2 345/8 291/2 42 1/4 36 41 1/2 363/4 Medusa Port.C 11/17/67 Mesabi Trusts 12/31/64 Glin Mathieson 4/22/66 Republic Steel 9/8/67 Revlon 5/3/65 Reynolds Metals 12/31/64 Riegel Paper 12/31/64 Robt. Controls 3/15/66 Schlumberger 12/31/64 Scovill Mfg. 5/5/67 Seaboard Coast L.5/5/67 Sharon Steel 7/8/66 Shell Oil 12/31/64 Signode Corp 12/31/64 Tektronix, Inc. 3/17/67 Union Camp 3/23/66 United Fruit 12/31/64 Vornado 9/8/67 Wallace & Tier. 8/2/65 283/8 147/8 63 493/4 451/8 34 7/8 21 3/8 34 47 3/8 42 555/8 347/8 59 1/2 27 1/4 401/8 47 17 5/8 25 1/2 32 291/2 11 7/8 72 1/4 435/8 841/8 50 1/4 HI 3/8 343/4 71 1/8 401/8 481/4 36 66 351/4 485/8 38 5/8 60 321/4 38 3/8 Bell & Howelr 417/66 47 Cenco Instrum. 1/29/65 293/4 743/.4 525/8 Clevite Corp. 12/31/64 407/8 47 Change 195 -5 26 – 10 -9 28 -2 -4 – 17 -1 -5 85 – 15 – 19 – 14 6 20 18 21 52 88 67 37 45 30 17 24 4 – 20 14 – 12 86 43 -9 2 50 -5 3 11 -I- 29 21 – 18 241 26 -I- 20 58 -I- 77 -I- 15 Change DJIA same Time Current Period Comment 4 Hold. – 5 Buy for 72. Buy-Dips. Obj. 110. -.3 Buy for 44-65. -. 3 Buy. 7 Hold 5 Buy-Dips. Obj. 74. -.3 Buy-Dips. Obj. 72-83. 12 Hold. Support at 40. – .3 Buy-Dips. Obj. 60. 5 Buy for 76. 12 Hold. 4 Buy-Dips. Obj. 47. 6.5 Buy-Dips. Support 42 3 Buy on Dips. 2 Buy for 64. -.3 Buy. 4 Buy for 57. 5.5 Buy-Dips. Obj. 60. 3 Buy-Dips. Obj. 47. 80. 3 Buy on Dips. – 5 Hold for 80. 4 Buy-Dips. Obj. 90. 12 Hold. 3 Buy-Dips. Obj. 62. -.3 Buy-Dips. Obj. 60 . 4 Merged/w.BrlSol Mye 5 Buy-Dips. Obj. 67. 3 Hold for Income. – 5 Buy-Dips. Obj. 130. -.3 Buy-Dips. 53 108. – 1. 8 Hold for 100 . 3 Buy for 90. -I- 3 Hold. – 2. 5 Buy-Dips. Obj. 58. 3 Hold for 110. – Hold. ,. – Buy for 94. 1 Buy for 70. 3 Buy for 122. -I- 3 Hold. Support at 31. 4 Hold. Support at 45-4 – 2.5 Buy-Dips.Obj. 90. -I- 3 Hold for 70. -.3 Buy for 45. 2. 6 Hold. Support at 37-35. – 4 List tl/.tl/lj( 3 Removed/List 3 Removed/List 5/5/67 This Bulletin 18 published for you! convenil'nee And inCormation alld IS not I\n offer to seU or II. solicltntlOn to buy any securities dlscuued. The Information was obtllmed from sources we bellevO! to bl. relmble. but we do not flIartlnt(.'(' Its nceurney Walston &. Co .. Ine and Itll officers. du-eetol8 or employees rney have an Interest III or Jlurchase and hell the referred to herein Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange , and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER lOll OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST Date Recom, Price as of date Recommended Price 12/29/67 or date Removed Denver Rio G. 12/31/64 21 3/8 Disney, Walt 12/31/64 45 1/2 EI Paso Natl.G 12/31/64 22 5/S Ill. Cent. Ind. 12/31/64 25 3/4 MDermott, J.R 12/31/64 24 7/8 Metro-Gold.M. 3/1/65 20 1/2 Southern Rwy 12/31/64 57 3/8 Sundstrand 12/31/64 10 Stocks removed in 1966-65 (thirty) 19 5/S 99 3/4 19 l/S 53 62 1/4 49 51 53 1/2 AVERAGE 0/; Change -S 119 – 15 108 149 140 -11 437 29 36 Change DJIA same Time Period Current Comment 3 Removed/ List 5/5/6 3 Removed/List 5/5/6' 3 Removed/List – 3 Removed/List 5/5/6 3 Removed/List'5/5;;7 .6 Removed/ List 5/5/67 3 Removed/List 3 Removed/List 5/5/67 3 SPECULATIVE PRICE APPRECIATION Allied Sup'mkts 9/8/67 20 Campbell Chib. 12/31/64 3 13/16 Chris-Craft 3/15/66 23 Gibraltar Fin. 11/17/67 22 1/2 Home Oil A 11/18/66 21 Microwave 12/31/64 9 5/8 National Can 12/31/64 17 Pacific Pete- 12/Sf!64- 10 374 Penn. R. R. 9/8/67 67 Syntex 3/17/67 93 1/8 Technicolor 5/5/67 23 1/2 UMC Ind. 12/31/64 14 3/8 Varian Assoc. 12/31/64 13 Victoreen 5/5/67 13 1/2 Vulcan Mat. 12/31/64 17 3/8 Amer. Bosch 4/5/65 IS 7/8 Stocks removed in 1966- 65 (sixteen) AVERAGE 19 1/8 7 3/.16 42 20 1/4 24 3/4 43 5/8 35 1/8 17 178 62 1/8 73 1/2 26 1/4 20 l/S 31 1/2 14 3/8 18 7/S 42 3/4 -4 93 S2 – 10 18 352 106 59 -7 – 21 12 41 142 6 S 128 84 62 -.3 3 – 2. 5 5 12 3 3 3 – .3 4 3 3 3 1 3.1 In registration, Buy on Dips. Buy-Dips.Obj.46-68 Buy-Dips. Support 1 Buy-Dips.Obj. 39. Hold for 70. Buy-Dips. Support 30 Buy fCi'r30- 50. Buy for 104. Hold. Support at 70. Buy for 44-58. Buy for 5S. Buy-Dips. Obj. 78. Buy-Dips. Obj. 37. Buy-Dips. Obj. 37. Removed/List 5/576 Adjusted for stock split. This Bulletin 15 published for your convenIt'llee md informatIOn lind IS not an offer to sell or a SOhcllRtlOn to buy any securities dlseussed The Information was obtained from SOUfees we behl'Vc to t) Ichable. but we do not !nnrH.ntcl' lts accurl\('Y. Walston & Co., In(', amt Its offiet'rs, nnectors or employees may have an mterest In or purchase ,tnd the T(!(cr red to herem. IrIN-916

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - January 05, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

———- — — – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Walston &Co. – – Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 5, 1968 As regular readers are aware, this letter maintains a fully supervised recommended list. Fully supervised in this case means that the list is continuously maintained and no issues are added or deleted without notice being made of the fact in the letter. Thus, regular readers of the letter are able to make new purchases at the time of recommendation and re- tain those issues for as long as they remain in the list, if theydesire to do so. Readers will also be aware that we have, since 31, 1964, maintained a con- tinuous performance record for this list. The method used, while rather complex, meets, we believe, applicable standards, and is the fairest possible under the circumstances. For each issue recommended we tabulate the percentagechangefromthetime-of theoriginal recommendation to the time of removal or, in the case of issues remaining on the list, to the time of publication. We then tabulate the percentage change on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average for the same time period. Then, for each segment of the list the percentage change in the individual issues, and the percentage changes in the Dow are averaged and a compari- son is made. As is our annual custom, a complete performance evaluation of the list over the past three rs has been made as of the 1967 close, and is available this week from your Walston & Co. Account Executive. It lists all issues on the list at the beginning of 1967, and all stoc recommended during the year. In addition, the performance record of stocks removed from the list in 1965 and 1966 is summarized. As usual, the list is divided into three categories Quality and Long-Term Growth, Price Appreciation, and Speculative Price Appreciation. e,erformance of each of the categories is as follows The Quality and Lon,lh,Ter G lis shows an average gain of 8.2 vs. an average gain of 6.4/0 in the Dow\!.9.!!l'JS tr. The Price AppreCia- tion list shows an average gain of 36 vs. an of 3 the Dow, and the Specu- lative Price AppreCiation section shows an g'aliYof 0 vs. a 3.1,,/.rise in the Dow. These summaries are, of course, tained by purchase in the future. 'Co t 1 ly – re; s u c h res u It s wi 11 be 0 bn6t inchidea. A few statistics on the note that the period cove ed go worthy of note. It is interestingto D e'mber 31, 1964, at which time the Dow was 874.13, just 30.98 po' t on December 29, 1967. Reflecting the sort of mar- ket that we have ee years, the Quality and Long-Term Growth section of the list with its 8. 2 0 ge n has turned in the least impressive performance. A total na;Ir!''1Jeen made in this section of the list, and of these, 15 have ad- vanced and 13 have d ed over the period. Fifteen of the 28 issues outperformed the Dow Jones Industrials for the same time period. The largest established gain was a 53 profit in Radio Corporation in 1965-66, while the best gain in an issue currently on the list is 50/0 in National Cash Register. Strangely enough, one of the largest losses is in that paragon of conservatism, American Telephone & Telegraph, which remains on the list at a price 24 lower than its original rec(I)mmendation in September, 1965. The Price Appreciation section is, of course, the largest category on the list and com prised a total of 88 recommendations over the three-year period, of which 47 remain on the list. Of the 88 recommendations, 58 have advanced and 30 have declined. Of the 30 issues which show declines, 18 issues remain in the list and the other '12 were removed showing losses. Vis-a-vis the Dow, 54 oCthl 88 iss.ues pe,rf.9Jmed betterover the period recommen ed. Nine issues achieved a better than 100 profit during the period they were recommended of which 6 were later recommended for sale and 2, Adams-Millis and United Fruit, remain on the list. The largest losses included a 41 loss in Korvette, a 40 loss in First Charter Financial, and a 30 loss in Warner Bros. Company over the 1965-66 period. All other losses were under 20, and 11 were under 10. In the Speculative Price Appreciation section, as might be expected, the performance among individual issues varies widely from a 352 profit over three years in Microwave Associates, to a 31/0 loss in Great Western Financial. Eight over-l00 profits were recorded. A total of 32 recommendations were involved of which 24 advanced and 8 declined. Twen four -of the 32 issues outperformed the Dow over the period involved. Dow-Jones Ind. – 901 ..24 ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails – 235.62 WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thill market letter Is publltlhed for your convenience and informatIon and IS not an offer to Bell or a soliCitation to buy any securities diSCUSsed. The in- formation was obtained from we behe.. e to he reliable, but we do not guarantee Its accuracy. Walston & Co. Inc. and its officers directors.or emDloyees may have an In or purchase and sell the .securities referred to helem, WN8Dl

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

—- – W—a-lsItnocn.&–C-o-. Members New York Stock Exch.nge .nd Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 12, 1968 We have continuously suggested over the past three months that the major question mark on the general market in early 1968 would be whether or not the technical damage caused by the October 1967 decline could be reversed. It will be too early to tell much be- fore Spring whether this is definitely the case, but it must be noted that an impressive start has been made. Breadth and volume statistics since the first of the year have been excellent, and despite the fact that the Dow-Jones Industrials were almost unchanged on the week, ad- vances outnumbered declines every day – – usually by a considerable margin. Volume figures have been good, and the 10-day Total of Upside Volume reached a level even higher than its peak of January, 1967 — the highest previous level in the entire bull market. Despite the in- action in the Dow, a shift in leadership in the direction of higher quality issues has been ob- vious during the past couple of weeks, and we think that this change will probably continue. One attractive issue in the Quality category is reviewed below. GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long-Term Debt Common Stock Sales-1967-E Sales-1966 53 1. 35 2.6 349, 800,000 35,903,517 shs. 2,600,000,000 2,475,000,000 Whether or not the American public takes favorably enough to the new model cars to make 1968 a record new car year, one thing is almost certain at this time. That is, that the nation's multi billion dollar rubber industry will record a new peak in sales well. Growth of e cases, in earnings as tn ustry in 1968 is es- timated a e tliat 967, exceeding that Earn. Per Sh.1967-E Earn. Per Sh. 1966 Mkt. Range 1967-68 3.40 3. 31 56 – 39 of the U. whole.' Total sales of pr s kinds are being projected to a n e illion level. pa to rebuild depleted investories caused by lengthy of tires is likely to rise some.20 over 1967 results while shipm s year by about 8. Thus, for the first time in the history of the in u d on and shipments will exceed 200-million units. Fullyexpe si antiCipated growth, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, the world's largest r fa r' or, continues to expand production facilities and at the sam time endeavors to buil a advantageous tire product mix. Higher average selling prices and a desire by safety- cious motorists to upgrade their tire purchases and buy on a quality basis rather thlin on a price level basis should help offset increased wage costs. In addition, revolutionary improvements in tire design and durability should increase replace- ment demand. Goodyear, the largest factor in the replacement tire business, has developed a passen- ger car tire combining the outstanding characteristics of a conventional bias-ply tire, the increasingly popular wide footprint tire and the radial-ply tire developed in Europe. The new tire will be available in considerable volume in the replacement market early this year. In addition, it will be offered as an option on some 1968 cars. The Ford strike had little adverse effect on Goodyear since the Number 2 car maker buys most of its tires from Firestone. Goodyear's principal customer is Chrysler. If Chrysler has an exceptionally good 1968 model year, it will augment the already favorable out look for the replacement market. Goodyear operated throughout most of the 1967 strike, but earnings were limited by payments made to the struck companies under a financial assistanc agreement. Despite this, however, first-half earnings still managed to edge ahead of a year earlier due in large part to the increased volume. Earnings for the full 1967 year are esti- maded to have risen to a new peak around 3.40 a share. For 1968, we are projecting anothe rise to the 3. 60 level. Overall sales volume, 60 of which derives from tires, is estimated to approximate 2.7 billion, vs. 2. 6 billion last year. This suggests a forthcoming increase in the conservative 1. 35 annual dividend currently being paid. From the technical view, Goodyear has built a considerable base in the 44-37 area, suggesting a long-term price objective of 82-plus. There is initial support at 50 with major support at 46-43. Now on the Quality & Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List Goodyear again is recommended for purchase by investment accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 898.98 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails 237.06 WALSTON & CO. INC. HWLAWTamb Thlt! market letter is pubhshed for your convenience and InfornlRtlOn n.nd not fin offer to sell or a soliCitatIOn to buy an) securities diSCUssed. The Information waa obtained from lIources we believe to be rehable. but we do not sruarantee Its aCCUrRI'!Y Walston & Co., Inc. and Its officers. directors or employees may bave an Interm In or purchase and sell the secUrities referred to helelr. WN801

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - January 19, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND oVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LElTER January 19, 1968 The word crosscurrents is, we are afraid, an overworked one in the market letter writer's lexicon, one we must personally confess we are most often tempted to use at times when the financial waters are 'so muddied as to make a prediction difficult or impossible Yet, we fail to see at the moment how any other word is more descriptive of the conflicting forces that appear at the present time to be tugging the market in many different directions simultaneously. To begin with, of course, we have the volume, the persistent avalanche of trading activity which has again forced the Exchanges to institute a shortened session — this time for an indefinite period —in order to on the,harried-staffsof member firm back offices. As a function of trading activity, we have the speculation, most particularl on the American Stock Exchange, where trading has reached all-time record levels, result- ing in stern warnings to the investment community on the part of the authorities concerned. Accompanying the -f.llenetic level of trading is the important testing level reached by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average at its high of 921. 87 on January 9th. To understand the cruciality of this level, a recapitulation of recent market history is in order. There is no doubt that the upswing which began in October 1966 at 735.74 in the Dow and carried to a high of 951.57 at the end of September 1967 can be characterized histori- cally as a major upswing. Although the Dow failed, at its peak, to make a new historic high, it was the only important average not to do so and it is the sheerest sprt of sophistry to call this upswing anything other than a major bull market. The only interruptions in this upswing were relatively minor in scope, and with a single advance was char- acterized by the series of higher highs and lows typical of d . rd move. As we have previously noted, this environm.a d a 1 with the decline of October, 1967. Not only did this drop carry well be e p v low made in August, but it brought the Dow back to its level of last ry. e obvious oversold condition at the end of last year, the market has, genera the January peak of being i is particularly disturhing in wS ied, to date, not to a new high -e September 1967 high of 951. 57. This .. the overbought condition of most of our short-term indicators as of a e 0 d.lact that this overbought condition has'not, so far, been 11 is would seem to suggest the further extension of a short-term declo would call into question the entire structure of the up- trend which started n s . Such a development would be particularly disturbing in that it would abort the ad al year-end rally at an early stage with the consequent un- favorable interpretatio lscussed in our letter of three weeks ago. Yet, and this is what we meah about crosscurrents, it is impossible to look at the technical patterns of'individual stocks and become widely concerned about the general level of the stock market — in particular the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. As a matter of fact, from a technical point of view, it would be difficult to find any group of 30 stocks that looks, as a group, less vulnerable than the 30 components of the Dow. Unexciting and dull are ad- )ectives that might be applied to many of these issues, but exploited and vulnerable — well ,hardly. Nor do either of the two other Dow averages mirror the Industrial pattern. The Rails have reached their downside objective and are patently somewhere in the process of forming a base — a process that will probably take some time. And the Utilities, largely unnoticed by tnany, recently were up 220/0 from their November'low, a performance which, if duplicated by the Industrials, would have had that average at around 1030. In the process, they have moved through their trading range of last Summer and definitely erased the downtrend that has been in effect since last Spring. Perhaps the most interesting sidelight is that all three indices were, at today's closin levels, within 10/0 either way of their highs of last March despite the fact that the three patterns are totally different. Here perhaps lies the clue for today's rather confUSing market. Essentially, in the past ten months, the popular indices have done nothing, yet it has been a ten'-month period in which highly respectable investment results were not only attainable but commonplace. It is equally likely that, wherever the averages may be ten months from now, there are a great many individual issues which will, then, be considerably higher. Dow-Jones Ind. 880. 32 Dow-Jones Rails 233.09 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter ia published for your convenience Bnd Information Rnd is not an offer to sell or a sohcltation to buy any securities The In formation wu obtained from sources we beheve to be reliable. but we do not guarantee Its accuracy Wa1ston & Co., Inc. and Ild officers. director!! or employee'll may have an interest In or pUFcbue Bnd sell the securaties referred to herem. WNlOt

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 26, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 26, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - January 26, 1968
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LfETTER January 26, 1968 Our last letter detailed the many crosscurrents that have beset the equity market so fa in 1968. Last week, to compound the confUSion, it had to contend with a war scare. The Pueblo incident on Thursday ended a nascent rally and sent the Dow down some nine points to an intra-day low of 853. 44 before cooler heads prevailed, and a rally on Thursdayafter- noon and early Friday set in. , In the process, most of our short-term indicators reached oversold territory last week and it is probable that a minor bottom may, indeed, have been reached. However, the very real problems as to the intermediate-term outlook discussed in last week's letter, remain – r – – – -very much with us. – – – -.. — –.- '–' Amidst all the hubbub and confusion there is, however, one thing that emerges quite clearly from a study of the individual technical patterns of 1,800 stocks. That is the diStinct shift in leadership which has taken place. The names that are now leading the relative stren parade and which, by and large, show the best overall chart patterns, are quite different from those that provided most of the impetus to the 1967 bull market. At the moment, it is, above all, imperative that the investor adjust his portfolio to this change. We could illustrate this feeling with a whole host of specific recommendations on indi- vidual issues. However, our feelings here are given concrete expression in our Recommende List. We would like, therefore, to offer a few general thoughts on the type of stock that shoul continue to do better over the months ahead. LOW pIE's vs. HIGH pIE's. By and large, the market leadership of the past two-an a-half years has been provided by issues which are now high multiples in relation to their earning power. In a great many cases t e pIe are justified, and there is no philosophical objection here to paying a gro a,nd/or quality. flow- ever, it must be noted that, in many instances, recen a ances' ndividual stocks have owe their existence in only a minor way to priceI earnings multiple — in other words to this connection, it is necessary only d' major part, to a markup in th et r r than fundamental factors. In he – rklgiVethaicttiiemarket-takethawa At the moment, we are, in issues selling at a historically modest multiple of earnings, and e wo distrustful of those issues where a premium is being paid for grow n son or another, is not materializing. The market has been especiall nward-revised earnings estimates of late, and we would expect this to continu PEACE STOCKS s. R STOCKS. Despite the recent Korean flare-up, there is to ou mind clear evidence t e market is highly distrustful of those issues associated with the war or defense efforts, and favorably inclined toward issues which would benefit from an end to hostilities, and a consequent upsurge in consumer spending. Industry groups that come to mind particularly in this category would include retailing, vending, building,savings and loans, textiles, apparel, automobiles, tire and rubber, etc. Issues in these industry groups are liberally represented in our Recommended List. CONSUMER GOODS vs. CAPITAL GOODS 'STOCKS. Our thinking here is largely an out growth of the war/peace analogy presented above. Again, the superior technical action of those industry groups which depend for their success on consumer spending appears to be a clear. phenomenon. The recently high rate of saving may well have something to do with this along with the defensive value provided bythe average consumer-goods type of issue. NA TURAL RESOURCES STOCKS. Inflation is, of course, very much with us, and here again the market seems to be indicating a clear preference for issues which 'provide some inflation protection via large holdings of natural resources. The obvious areas that come to mind are- the oils and certain paper and timber companies, together with a number of issues in the metals field. We concluded last week's letter with the sentence that – It is likely that, wherever the averages may be ten months from now, there are a great many individual issues which will, then, be considerably higher. We reiterate this feeling at the moment along with the though that a great many of those issues will fit the characterizations outlined above. Dow-Jones Ind. 865.06 Dow-Jones Rails 231. 75 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thill market letter Is published tor your convenience and In(ormRtlon ILnd IS not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy II.n) securitLes ..hscU88ed The In 0;formation was obtaaned from sources we believe to be rellable. hut we do not guarantee Its o.ccurnc). Walston & Co. Inc. and itll officers, dl;ectors employeeB may have an mterest in or pUl'chase and sell the referred 1.0 herem. WN301

Download PDF