Viewing Month: July 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1968
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W—a-lIsntocn.-&-C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 3, 1968 Wall Street folklore has it that markets prior to long week-ends are generally dull affairs, but Wednesday's session, preceding a four-day hiatus, gave lie to the myth. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average chalked up a 6. 67 point advance; 991 stocks advanced vs. only 332 declines; and volume was 14,390,000 shares, a decided gain over recent trading sessions. All this took place at a time when most shortterm indicators, after twelve listiess trading days, had retreated to oversold territory, lending credence to the belief that a new short-term upswing may have begun. If this is the case, a tentative upside objective for the Dow might be 940-950 The following three issues, one'from each,three sections of our Recommended List, appear particularly attractive at the present time. INTERNATIONAL PAPER (34 5/8) – The move on the part of professional investors of managed funds from highly speculative, glamor-type stocks toward relatively undervalued dividend paying blue chip type stocks has been a factor in the recent market performance of IP, one of the issues in the Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List. The world' largest manufacturer of paper products, International is expected to report a rebound in earnings this year, perhaps to around the 2.20 to 2.25 a share level, up from the de- pressed 2. 03 of 1967. This improvement,plus the announced intention that the company ac- tively is seeking acquisitions and has been acquiring its own shares for use in facilitating such moves, has improved the market prospects considerably and focused investor attention on this long-ignored issue. Natural-resources stocks in interest at present due to continuing fears of world-wide n t above-average alance 'and Inter- national Paper, as an owner of more than seven f 0 ds and the holder of cutting rights to an additional 15 million acres, pro ding asset value that would afford considerable protection during rse ta imates. Technically, IP has been forming abe cons' able extent since the low was reached-in -1966. The e – mpanied by-a markup in prices. but our price objective, the by a higher goal near 90, suggests tha the stock continues to merit c i . at prevailing market levels. AMERICAN BA ) Whatever happens, people still have to eat' This thought has been . t the favorable showing that food stocks have enjoyed in recent months. h a tocks have risen sharply, current price levels suggest e e upside potential. One of the more attractive in this area is American Bakeries, a sue in the Price Appreciation section of the Recommended List, ABA has completed its huge modernization program and profit margins already have started to reflect the operating efficiencies. For the current year, earnings are estimated to rise to between 2. 20 and 2.30 a share, from 1. 80 last year. With the current dividend affording a return well below the 6/0 average of the last 15 years, some increase in the present 1. 00 annual rate is antiCipated, especially now that requirements for modernization will be less- ened, From the technical view, a chart breakout took place at 30, indicating an initial price objective at 40, followed by a higher objective at 62. There is considerable support at 28, limiting potential risk. We recommend purchase of ABA at the market. VICTOREEN (18 5/8) – The impressive uptrend in sales and earnings that started back in 1965 is expected to continue throughout 1968 and 1969. Compared with 78 a share on revenues of 45 million in 1967, results this year could see earnings rise to near 1. 00 a share while sales could approximate 60 million. The reason for this favorable trend has been Victoreen's vigorous acquisition program of recent years. Accompanying this diversi- fication has been a broadening of existing product lines. One of VIC's new products controls the release of X-rays from color TV sets, Now in field-testing, this one item could prove to be an important contributor to earnings if adopted by a leading TV manufacturer. With acqui sitions still being sought, new products being introduced and operating efficiency being upgraded, these shares appear to offer attractive capital gains potential for speculative-minded a c c oTheutecnhnictalspO.S.ition shows a pattern of accumulation go.mg back two years. There is only light overhead supply between current levels and our initial price objective around 22, There is a higher price goal in the mid-30's and downside support at 16. Dow-Jones Ind. 903.51 Dow-Jones Rails 266.88 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. rle hl8rket letter la published !-or your convenienee and Information and Is not an offer to sell or a soliCItation to buy an), securities J scuued Th I A VV'll1 aVrn-&was .o.btained from aoUlCes we believe to be rellablt'. but we do not guarantee Ita nceuraey Wallton & Co Inc and ita om I dl ……. e n- IntereAt In or purchase and &ell the lIecu.rities referred to herem. '.' cers, r………re or WN3Ct

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 12, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 12, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - July 12, 1968
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W—a-l-sItnonc.&–C-o-. riLE Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OYER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET lETTER July 12, 1968 The practice of stock market forecasting is a hazardous one at best, and beset with a great many pitfalls and temptations. One of the temptations continually facing those called upon to comment on the equity market is to waste time with factors that are either inconse- quential or irrelevant. Two examples of this tendency which have presented themselves in recent weeks come to mind. The first is the widespread disappointed comment at the lack of follow-through shown the price advance which featured Thursday morning's trading. It will be recalled that the two opening days of the week, following the sharp rise on July 3rd prior to the long week- – . 'end, had ket ane-ad-snarply 'iIldiceSWifh…..h-e-number of- advancing stocks sharply outnumbering those declining. This advance continued on Thursday morning with the Dow reaching an intra-day high of 933.83. Volume in the first hour set another one of the new records that have been a commonplace feature of the turnover statis- tics of late. However, the advance died out in the afternoon with most of the gains being give up and actually, by the end of the day, declining stocks slightly outnumbered those advancing. Friday's action was desultory with the average posting a modest drop and advances and de- clines just about even. This kind of short-term action tends, of course, to bring forth all sorts of profound comments, but the fact is it doesn't really mean very much. There are a great many other factors a great deal more indicative of the short-term prospects for the market among which we think, are the following. From the timing pOint of view, first of all, the advance has been, in effect, only some six days — since July 2nd. There is al s vJi.sal tendency for short-term trends to run considerably longer than e e 20-25 trading days. Secondly, lJlost available projections indicate sr m projections for the averages and for individual stocks. The DOWrfeixf e, e, in Wednesday's trading, out of the congestion area at 892-920, which d ine since mid-May. A reasonable . price projection for this ba-se – – e . -he 940-950 range to be-reached wiih- out too much difficulty. upside objective of 104 versus i Poor 500 continues to have a near-ter 1' 102.34. Thirdly, the advance had, until – the latter two 1000 stocks advan n J t 'n, showed above-average breadth with almost uly 8th, and a reasonably good plurality of advances over declines on Jul e st plausible short-term forecast, therefore, would ignore Thursday's and Friday w ness and call for generally higher prices to be achieved in the near future. Enough of the snort-term.comments. The longer-term outlook has also been confused, we think, by a number of essentially irrelevant factors. Among these is the now-widespread talk about a business slowdown of some nature in the second half of 1968. We confess to no fixed opinion on this subject — indeed, most of the concrete forecasts we have seen for the last two quarters of the present year are distinguished largely by their impreciseness. Over- all profits will be down, it seems, but no one is quite sure how much; and furthermore there will be a great many exceptions, etc., etc., etc. All this is very nice, but ignores the fact that any attempt to correlate short-term earnings levels to stock prices constitutes one of the most fruitless intellectual exercises possible. This is especially so in today's market where a ma!ly issues essentially unexp!oited ant! t!J.e funds moving into these issues could well produce conSiderably better price levels without any great changes in the overall earnings picture. Again, we think there are a number of more important factors that bear on the stock market outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond. These include the impressive tech- nical evidence cited repeatedly in this letter that the advance which started last April is like- ly to be at least of intermediate-term, and very possibly longer-term, duration. Equally im- portant is the fact that to date no important signs of a distributional phase of the market have as yet appeared and, indeed, the breadth and vigor shown on an intermediate-term basis have been, if anything, greater than the analyst would have a right to expect. It is, in summar early in the game to take anything other than a constructive attitude toward the stock market. Dow-Jones Ind. 922.46 Dow-Jones Rails 265.82 ANTHONY W. T ABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb TbIB market letter Is publiahed for your convemence and Information and Is not an olter to sell or a !l()hcltatlon to buy any &eeUrttie8 dl8CUSeed. The in- formation was obtained from we believe to be rehable, Dut we do not guar'Ult e its .lceuracy. Walston & Co., Inc and its officers. directors or I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 19, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 19, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - July 19, 1968
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. I L e.. W—a-lslntocn.&–C-o-. Members New York Stock Exchqe and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanqes OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVEJI;SEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 19, 1968 A certain J'Jl.l3.laise exists on the current stock market scene — a malaise which is awfully difficult to define in statistical form. Certainly, by no stretch of the imagination was the market's performance over the past week all that bad. The Dow-Jones Industrials lost a total of 8. 48 points in the four days of trading – hardly enough to cause more than a flyspeck on a chart. The Rail average at the week's close is lower than it has been since the end of May, but is, on the other hand, almost 20 above its mid-March levels. The Utilitie meanwhile, have moved sideways since the latter part of last month. What about the averages being unrepresentative of the market Again, the argument is hard to four days of the week, but, still a respectable number of stocks chalked up plus signs on each day. Indeed, Thursday's trading saw 98 new highs for the year achieved – a statistic which, while hardly record-setting, is moderately impressive. Why, then, does the market not seem to be acting the way it should Actually, anum ber of answers to this question present themselves. The first is, of course, that the market is not, in fact, acting as well as it was. Still engraved on our memory is the momentous advance that took place last April and which carried on with only moderated vigor into midJune. Even fresher in most investors' minds is the sharp run-up which carried most of the broad-based indices into new high territory in the early part of July. Compared with these past periods the market is, indeed, not acting well. Another fundamental reason for the malaise is the kind of stock that is moving to- day — both up and down. We are not, personally, divide the market into bl ue chips and glamour issues bu, familiar tendency to hrgextent that such a generalization can be made, it is true that over the brunt of the correction whereas a goodly numbe lue' issues have borne ave actually moved a- head. As good a capsule description as Oil of New Jersey, which traded at 67 in la ep t et is to note that Standard ,re a 80; and Occidental Petroleum, which had been-at 55, sold at 46. n y well-be ,responsible for ..a lar-gepar-t of the uneasiness an old one by now — old enou of today long ago dis 0 e h speculation. Th of academic a . of late. The glamour stock era is fiX\d1he habits of many investors. The active trade s nd went off to seek more interesting vehicles for . igh-quality, moderate-growth companies can only be class of investors whose natural tipple is a headier wine. What of the recent leadership on the part of highgrade issues likely to continue The answe ,we think, generally, yes. We have repeated, ad nauseam, in this space the contention hat such a shift in leadership is, essentially, necessary to a continued favorable investment climate. The highgrade area remains the one great field of relatively unworked ground left in today's stock market. A few thoughts on the type of investment climate such leadership is likely to produce are in order. The one obvious conclusion is that the game of beat the Dow may be more difficult. If indeed, it is the stocks actually in the Dow which are furnishing the momentum for an advance, the Dow will be outperforming the market instead of vice versa — an interesting change from the climate of the past three to four years. It may also produce a climate where the investor must be satisfied with more modest exactions. Highgrade issue may well advance, as many have, but it will be difficult for them to produce the explosive sort of rise that has'characterized the more volatile'leaders of the past. . If, indeed, the trend does continue, investment policy, we think, should concentrate neither on applauding or deploring the fact, but should simply recognize its existence. Ag- gressive investment has been described as going where the action is. If the action is in new and unfamiliar areas, the investor should indeed take his funds there with the utmost dispatch. NOTE Four issues are being removed from our Recommended List this week. We are sug gesting acceptance of profits in Gillette and Revlon, and are removing Allegheny Ludlum Steel and Dentists' Supply due to disappointment with recent technical action. Dow-Jones Ind. 913.92 Dow-Jones Rails 257.80 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter Is pubhshed for )'our convenience and mformatlon I\nd 1'1 not an ofTer to sell or a Boh('llatlon to buy any securities 'hSCUBSed. The in- formation was obtaIned from sources we believe to be rehable. but we do not guarantee Its nccuracy 'VIt'alston & Co Ine and its ffI d to employees may have an mterest In or purchase and sell the seCUrities refel'l'ed to heleln. . . 0 cers, lrec ra or WNBOl – I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 26, 1968

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 26, 1968

Tabell's Market Letter - July 26, 1968
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, / Walston &CO. —-Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO! COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER, July 26, 1968 July 1968 has, so far, proved itself to be a frustrating month. A five-day rally which began the month was aborted, and the next two weeks saw a neutral to downward trend. Last week acceleration on the downside took place, the Dow penetrating its June low on Thursday Thus, the month ends as it started with short-term indicators again in an oversold position. The central fact is that risk appears limited with one set of downside targets in the 870-860 range, and the most pessimistic readings at the moment centering around 850-840. -One factor, of which the press will shortly be reminding us, is that 1968 is a Presi- dential election year. Numerous studies have been made of market action in such years, and it is an indubitable-fact that normal market -In-an- effort to tabulate year action succinctly, we have prepared the following table. It shows, for each year, the President elected and his party; followed by the average price for each month expressed as a percentage of the previous December's close (i. e., 110 means the market was up 10, and 90 means it was down 10). Year President Jan. Feb. Mar. -Apr. May Jupe July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1900 McKinley R 101 1(i3' 104 105 100 98 –gs 99 97 100 108 i14 1904 Roosevelt R 102 99 99 101 99 99 103 107 112 118 125 126 1908 Taft 1912 Wilson 1916 Wilson 1920 Harding R 105 100 105 111 117 117 123 126 125 126 134 138 D 100 99 102 106 105 105 106 109 109 109 108 103 D 99 98 97 96 98' 99 98 99 102 105 107 103 R 99 91 97 96 91 89 89 86 89 89 85 77 1924 Coolidge R 103 104 102 100 99 101 1928 Hoover R 99 98 103 11Q 113 1m 1 8 1932 Roosevelt D 103 101 102 76 66 1936 Roosevelt D 102 108 112 112 104 V;\116 110 115 l'W 1 123 131 9 2 88 87 120 126 130 119 132 82 128 1940 Roosevelt D 99 98 97 1944 Roosevelt D 102 Hl1 105 1948 Truman D 97 92 94 98 82 86 87 88 85 ,09, 12 108 111.- 110-115 11 108 104 103 106 100 99 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 EisenhowerR Kennedy Johnson D 102 97 8 105 106 104 104 105 109 98 1 102 107 106 103 102 100 102 92 96 93 94 92 91 93 97 107 109 108 111 110 111 113 115 112 92 99 101 104 104 The seventeen ye 0 date show an approximate normal distribution. Nine could be considered bull mark ,whereas three (1920, 1932 and 1940) are distinct bear-market years. In five years, the trend was flat, as evidenced by the fact that the December average price was within 5 either way of the previous December'S close. Of even more interest is the general tendency towards a flat trend or moderate weak- ness during the first half of the year. Nine of the 17 years showed little market change through June. It is interesting that 1968, to date, also appears to be taking this kind of shap Indeed, only in the three years which later turned out to be full fledged bear markets was the action in the first half predominantly on the downside. What is interesting at the moment, though, is the definite tendency toward a strong second half. Indeed, as the table shows, in 14 of the 17 years the average price for December was higherthan the ayer,tgeRrice for- June. Even in two of the three bear markets, 1932 and 1940, the market rallied in the second half from the June lows. Furthermore, in one of the three exceptions (1912) the June-Decem bel' difference was minuscule, and the market spent most of the second half in higher territory. Only in 1920 and 1948 were June prices significantly lower than December's. There are, of course, numerous possible rationalizations for the election year tendenc for a weakish first half and a strong second half of the year. One would be the gradual re- moval of uncertainty, as the election becomes closer and the outlook for the next four years becomes clearer. Whatever the reasons, however, the record has some interest as we look forward to the last five months of 1968. Dow-Jones Ind. 888.47 Dow-Jones Rails 250.86 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter Is publlshed tor your convenience and in(onnatton Rnd Is not an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy Rny seeurltles diSCUSSed, The Intonnation was obtained from sources we behtle to be rehable. but we do not guarantee its accuracy, Walston & Co.. Inc. and ita officers, directors or emDloyees may have an mtereet in or purcbase and sell the securities referred to helem WN801

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