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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1963

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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– .l1(,111/(,I-' S('II' rill I. Stock E.rchall(l NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGElES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 3, 1963 Last July. this letter discussed the importance of relative strength during a de- clining phase of the ma rket. We sa id – At this stage of the market pattern, relative strength can be a very important tech ni.cal. tool. Relative strength is the price action of an individual stock as compared to the averages. For example, if the average declined 10 and an individual stock declined only 50/0, that stock is showmg above-average action or good relative strength despite the fact that it has declined. Conversely, if the average advanced 10, and an individual stock advanced only 50/0, the relative strength of the individual stock is poor. Another, and simpler, approac is to select the stocks or groups of stocks that have held above a previous low despite the fact that the average reached new low territory. For example, the Industrial aver age reached a low of 564.23 in October, 1960, and then advanced to 741. 30 in November of 1961. The recent decline has broken below the 1960 low to reach 524. 55. The individual stocks or groups of stocks that have held above their own 1960 lows have, therefore, shown above-average action and their relatLVe strength is good despite the fact that they have declined in price. There is usually a good fundamental reason for this price action. The fact that these issues are meeting better support than the rest of the market usually indicates a nsmg earnings trend or better prospects or both. More often than not, issues showing good relative strength during a declme become the leaders of the next advancing phase. We felt that the ability of a stock to hold above the 1960 low in the 1962 panicky declme was quite important technically. It implied tha t these stocks might be a stage ahead of the general market and might have already formed a period. Now, over nine months later, how has this tlJ;ry We have Just completed a compilation of the largest and actively traded issues on the New Exchange. As of this week, 105 of these the 1960-1962 0k 0 hat includes most of ange and American Stock der 110/0, have reached new all- time high It is interestmg held above thelr 1960 lows m the mar 0 ese stocks were those wh.ich cl &)0 62. Of the four tl1at(hd make new hlghs despite the fact that they U. S. Smelting, is a proxy fight situa- tion and another, Ameri efuical, is being taken over by another company. The other 101 comp i 1 0 e 1960 lows in 1962. This worke v n' vidual groups. In the airlines, for example, six issues held above the 196010 ad' broke below. Included in the six that held are Delta, Nation Northwest, Pan-America d Western. All five of these have reached new high territory since 1956. Included i e group that failed to hold above the 1960 low are American, East- ern and United. These have SO far showed below-average actin. It is also interesting to note that of the 105 new highs, 66 of the highs,or 630/0,were contributed by only nine industry groups. There were 15 utilities, 13 oils, 11 auto and equipment, 6 natural gas, 5 airlines, 5 railroads, 5 textiles, 3 aerospace am 3 sugars. The re- maining 39 new highs were spread over 31 different groups. There were 51 groups in which no new highs were reached. In a sizable number of groups, stocks that broke below the 1960 ows are predominant. For example, all 9 major cement issues broke below the 1960 lows. The electronics group shows a similar pattern. Of 28 lssues, only 5 held above the 1960 lows While other factors must, of course, be taken mto consideration, ability to hold above the 1960 low has;' so far, been an important factor in stock selection. A list of 523 .' issues that held above the 1960 lows will be m the hands of your Account Executive shortly. This study strengthens our conviction that, while the market is in a broad accumulation area that will eventually result m much higher levels over the longer-term, there are not enough stocks with strong technical patterns at the moment to indicate a new roaring bull market at this stage. There is probably no great vul nerability in the general market pattern, ut more time is needed to broaden the base patterns in many individual issues. Concentration should be on these individual patterns rather than the averages. 2 p. m. Dow-Jones Ind. – 719.67 2 p. m. Dow-Jones Rails – 164. 60 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. nWI ket Ictte! nol ,1111 untie no t,) he COI\tlllcd all lTel I ,,('II ,u tn 1,) .HI 'CCllI llle I efell ('.1 tu hCICIII The lntUllllllt.I)n 'untllned herein nut J,'lIlltantt'Ct\II to nCClIIlIC UI cmlllctcnc… nn.! the fUlllhhL11J,' theter … II' III1IUI1,II'1 n .'11 ((1I1,.,tllll ''' \-. \ he '''II\IIICfI a, 1\ 1'l'le,,('II\II. tHIn by \Vn1ston & Co, lnr 0\11 uf 1\11111011 nil' tl .h'll.e \\lthlIt 'JUlIn' & CIl, In( lind DlI,dn,' Rt.,khI,1,, ,I\l1 t,mp11v('!!'1 thcreof. ;clInllrl may h,,\c ,Ill Int'lct III the C,lIlltJC melli 11,,111(',111 Ih,,, mn'h('t i'tt. ,''' Intended 11\11 I'lc,,,nlcd me,ely II' ,I IH!!1cl,,1 Inform.1 rommentllly on dnv tu dllY mnrhe! news nlHI nut II a u,ml.lcle A1,I,I1I11,1I 111(1 m.,IIOn lth l'-'ICl'l I 1111\ '(,IIIIIIC'- lefCIIl'i1 tu hCICIIl \,ill he fUI rllheu uPUII \\ \ lUI A The following issues listed on both the New York Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange held within a point of their 1960 (in a few instances 1961) lows in 1962. This list does not pretend to be all inclusive but it probably contains the most important stocks on both exchanges. Abbott Labs ACF Industries Admiral Plastics Aerojet General Air Control Air Products A lco Products Aldens Allegheny Power Allen Industries Allied Chemical Allied Stores Alside, Inc. Amerace Corp. Amerada Petroleum Amer. Agric. Chern. American Bank Note Amer. Brake Shoe Amer. Can Amer. Chain Amer. Consumer Amer. Distilling Amer. Elec. Power Amer. Enka Amer. Hardware Amer. Hospital Supply Amer. Metal Climax Amer. Natural Gas. Amer. Optical Amer. Smelting Amer. Snuff Amer. So. African Amer. Standard Amer. Sugar Refining Amer. Tel & Tel American Tobacco American Viscose Amer. Water Works Ametek AMP Inc. Apollo Ind. . Archer Daniels Ariz. Pub. Service Armour & Co. Armstrong Rubber Arvin Ind. Ashland Oil Associated Dry Goods Associates Investment A tchison, Topeka & S. F. Atlantic City Electric. Atlantic Refining Aurora Plastics Austin Nic hols Avco Corp. Avis Industries Avnet Babbitt Babcock & Wilcox Baltimore & Ohio Bartons Candy Bayuk Cigar Beatrice Foods Beaunit Corp. Beech Nut Life Savers Belding Hem. Benefici3.1 Finance Bigelow Sanford Black & Decker Bliss, E. W. Bobbie Brooks Boeing Air Book-of-the- Month Borden Borg Warner Boston Edison Brach & Son Breeze Briggs & Stratton Bristol Myers Brooklyn Union Gas Brown Shoe Bucyrus Erie Buffalo Forge Bullard Bullocks Burlington Ind, Byers, A. M. Calgary & Edmonton Calif. Packing Campbell Red Lake Campbell Soup Canada Dry Canaveral Int'l Cap. C. Broadcast Carnation Co. Carrier Corp. Carrier & Gen. Caterpillar Tractor Celanese Cent. Ill. Light Chain Belt. Champlin Oil Chesebrough Chesapeake & Ohio Chicago, Milwaukee & St. Chicago, Rock Island Chock Full of Nuts Chrysler Cincinnat i Milling Cinerama CIT Financial Cities Service Cluett, Peabody Coca-Cola Colgate- Palmolive Collins & Aikman Colonial Corp. Colonial Sand Columbia Broadcasting Columbia Pictures Combustion Engineering Commercial Solvents Paul Congoleum – Nairn Consolidated Edison Consolidated Foods Consolidation Coal Consumers Power Continental Can Conthental Insurance Continental Motors Continental Oil Control Data Cooper Tire Copperweld Corn Products Coty, Inc. Creole Petroleum Crown Cork Crown Zellerbach Curtiss Wright Dana Corp. Dayton P & L Deere Delta Air Dentists Supply Denver Rio Grand De Soto Chem. Detroit Edison De VllblSS Diamond National DIsney Dr. Pepper Dome Mines Dome Petroleum Dominion Tar Draper Corp. Drilling & Exp. DuBois Chem. Duke Power Du Pont Duquesne Light. DuVal Sulphur DWG Cigar Dynamics Corp. Eastern Gas & F. Eaton Mfg. Elastic Stop Nut Electric Autolite Electric Bond & Share Electronic Spec. Emerson Electric Englehard Ind. Equitable Gas Ex-Cell-O B Factor, Max Fairmont Foods Falstaff Family Finance Fanny Farmer Federal Mogul Federated Dept. Strs. Helene Curtis Heller, Walter Helme Hershey Holly Sugar Holophane Home Oil Financial Federation Financial General Homestake Hoover Ball Bear First Charter Financial Houdaille Fischbach & Moore Fischer Port. Flying Tiger Food Giant Ford Motor Household Fin. Hudson Bay Mining Hunt Foods , Illinois Central Fram Corp. Inspiration Copper Friden, Inc. Insurance Co. of N. A. Fruehauf Trailer Inter. Business Machines Gabriel Inter, Harvester Gamble Skogmo Inter. Minerals & Chem. Gen. Amer. Oil Inter. Nickel General Cable Inter. Silver ) General Cigar Interstate Dept. Stores General Gas General Motors Jefferson Lake Sulphur Jewel Tea Gen. Public Vtil. Johnson & Johnson – General Steel Ind. Jonathan Logan General Tire Kansas City Southern Genesco Kawecki Chern. Gerber Kayser Roth Getty Oil Kellogg Giant Yellowknife Kendall Gibraltar Financial Kern County Land Gimbel Gould Nat. Batt. Grace, W. R. Granby Mining Great A & P. Great West Financial Great West Sugar Greyhound Grumman Gulf Mobile Gulf Oil Gulf States Util Gulf & Western Halliburton Hall Printing Hammermill Harris Intertype Harsco Kerr-McGee King Seely Klein, S. Klian, H. Koppers Co. Korvette, E. J. KVP Sutherland Lehn & Fink Libby McNeill Litton Ind. Lockheed Airc. Laews Theatres Lone Star Gas Long Island Lighting Louisville & Nashville Lucky Friday Louisiana Land Hart, Sch, & Marx Hayes Ind. Heinz, H. J. C Mack Truck Macy, R. H. Madison Fund Magnavox Magma Copper Mallory, P. R. Manning, Max Manhattan Shirt Marathon Oil Maremont Corp. Marine Midland Marshall Field Martin Marietta Masonite Massey- Ferg. May Dept. Strs. Maytag MCA Corp. McCord Corp. McCrory McDermott, J. Ray McDonnell Air McGraw Ed. McGregor, Don. McIntyre, Por. McKesson & Rob. McQuay Nor. !\lead Corp. Mergenthaler Lino Merritt Chap. Mesabi Trust MGM Middle South Util. Midland Ross Mission Corp. Mississippi River Fuel Missouri Pacific Mohasco Monarch Machine Monsanto Chemical Montgomery Ward Mueller Brass Munsingwear Murray Murray Ohio National Acme National Airlines National Biscuit National Can National Cash Reg. National Dairy National Gypsum National Linen National Rubber National Starch Na tional Video New England Tel. New Jersey Zinc Newport News Niagara Mohawk Norfolk & Western No. American Avia. No. American Car No Natural Gas Northwest Air Occidental Pete Oxford Paper Pacific Pacific Pete Pacific Tel. Paddington (A) Pan American Air Panhandle Eastern Parmalee Trans Peabody Coal Penick & Ford Penney, J. C. Pennsalt Chern. Penn. R. R. Peoples Gas Pet Milk Pfaudler Perm. Pfizer Phelps Dodge Rtiladelphia &. Read. Phillip Morris Phillips Pete Phillips Van H. Pillsbury Pitney Bowes Pittston Proctor & Gamble Puerto Rican Tel. Pure Oil Pyle National Quaker Oats Ralston Rayette Rayonier Reed Roller Republic Aviation Revlon Reynolds Tobacco Riegel Paper Rockwell Standard Rohr Ronson Royal Crown Cola Royal Dutch Royalite Oil Safeway Stores St. Louis S. F. SanDiego Imperial Schlumberger Scott Paper Scovill Mfg. Seaboard Air. Seagrave Sears, Roebuck Shamrock 011 Shell Trans. Signal Oil Simonds Saw Singer Mfg. Skelly Oil Smith, Douglas Smith, Kline & F. Socony Mobil Soss Mfg. Southern Cal. Ed. So. Puerto R. Sugar Southern Pacific Southern Nat. Gas Southern Railway Square D. Standard Brands Standard Financial Standard Kollsman Standard Oil of Calif. Standard Oil of Indiana Standard Oil of) N. J. Sterling Drug Stevens, J. P. Stewart Warner Stokely, Van Camp Storer Broad. Sub. Gas Sub. Prop. Gas Sundstrand Sunray DX Sunshine Bisc. Sweets Co. of Amer. Symington Wayne Syntex Talcott, James. Talon (A) Tech. Matei'ial Tech. Operations Texaco Texas East. Trans. Texas Gas Trans. Texas Gulf Prod. Texas Pacific Coal Texas Utilities Textron Thew Shovel Timken Roller Tishman Realty Torrington Tractor Supply Trane Transamerica Trans. West. Fin. Tri – Continental Udylite Union Bag Camp Union Electric Union Oil of Calif. Union Pacific Union Twist Drill United Aircraft United Artist United Biscuit United Fruit United M & M U. S. Freight U. S. Industries U. S. Lines U. S. Plywood U. S. Smelting U. S. Tobacco Universal Amer. Universal Leaf D Universal Oil Prod. Van Raalte Virginia Caro. Virginia Elec. Von's Grocery Vulcan Material Walker Hiram Wallace & Tiern. Warner Lambert Western Airlines Western Pacific Westinghouse Air Whirlpool Wickes Corp. Wilcox Oil Williams Bros. Winn-Dixie Wrigley, Wm. Xerox Zenith. …. ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1963
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– J1cmlerN XCIl' ln/I. Sinck E.1'Ca1lqe Fit NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERseAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 10, 1963 The market continues the advance from the October low, and at Thursday's intra-day high of 726.48, the Dow-Jones Industrial average was fast approaching the November, 1961 high of 741. 30. Despite the steepness of the advance, our breadth index is moving along with the market averages into new high territory. Until there is a deviation between these two indices, nothing more than technical corrections are to be expected. Most of the leaders of the advance from the October lows were issues in the Oils, Utilities, Auto Equipment, Natural Gas. Textiles, Airlines and Railroads. These seven groups accounted for 60 of the 105 new highs mentioned in last week's letter. All of these groups were among those which held above the 1960 lows in the 1962 decline. However, they have all had sharp advances and may be in need of some temporary consolidation. There are a fair number of other groups that showed good relative strength action in the 1962 decline and have not, as yet, advanced sharply. Included in this classification are the Machine Tools. One obvious reason for the technical action of the industry is the large potential demand for machine tools. As Business Week magazine noted this week, more U. S. machine tools are overage then at any time since the 1930 'so The United States average, 640/0, is appreciably higher than Western Europe or the Soviet Union. Six stocks in the group held above their 1960 lows in 1962. They are Cincinnati Milling (47), Excello (40), National Acme (67), Sundstrand (25), Union Twist Drill (29) and United Greenfield (22). Of these six issues, Excello is already part of our recommended list. Machine tools account for only 230/0 of total sales, but the dairy 250/0 sales ,can be an important factor in earnings. Within the next few man , sian to plastic – coated containers will be completed. 1962 . a S e and, despite lower earnings for the quarter ended February, (70 as t ) earnings should be J around the 3.20 level for 1963. The stock We believe Sgndstrand Corp. r rre'nlr1 g 1. 60 annually to yield 10/0. cti ong term capital appreciation pot- ential, and it is being added to our r d l' . ,Like 'Excello, machine -tools are a minor part of the productioniaKA i part oLsaJes Sundstrand .sal a -,\\gWmissile components furnish the larger tools and hydrostatic transmissicms . This divislOn could b a t nt or in long term growth. Earnings for 1962 yrtalled 2.20 and the cu . d provides a 40/0 yield. The stock sold as high as 38 in 1959 and has held in 8- ange for the past three years. An eventual upside penetratirn of this trading area wo esult in a very favorable technical pattern. Earnings for the first half of 1963 are expected to be a shade below last year but should pick-up in the final half. The stock appears to be an attractive long term commitment. Two issues in our recommended list have reached their upside objectives and are bein removed for the time being. Columbia Pictures (29) has reached its upside potential. The stock was originally recommended at 20 3/8 after allowing for stock dividends. In addition, if rights to buy Screen Gems at 9 were used, each 100 shares of Columbia Pictures owns 20 shares of Screen Gems now selling at 25. Louisiana Land 87) has reached its 85-90 objective. The stock was originally recommended at 50 1/2. One of the issues on our low-priced speculative list, Pacific Petroleum 13 3/4) was quite active on Friday and closed up 1 3/8 points. This issue has been on our recommended list for a long time and has done little marketwise. However, we consider it an excellent holding for long term capital appreciation. The stock sold as high as 38 in the 1957 Canadian oil and gas boom. It has held in the 17-18 range since 1960. It is one of the favored issues that held above its 1960 low in 1962. Retention is advised. Reynolds Metals (34) also showed favorable technical action last week by breaking out on the upside of the 31- 21 area in whlh it has held for over a year. Dow-Jones Ind. 723.30 Dow-Jones Rails 164.60 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO., INC. ,nrtllThiS market. letu.r IS not. nnf! under J1() elrcum6tancel to he ('on..tl lied II'. nn (lfTC! til ..ell 01 I' bultcllutwn til huy 1111) '-celli \tIe.. I cfCII('.ll IH'I CIII The malltln contained herem IS not J!tlfll antcetl lI'I to ncelll Hey 01 ('umpietenc-.s lIno the rut nb,hlll)! hel etl( 1-. nt. nnrl ull.ll'l 11) -II tu ),e t Ihtl ued 'I I tlOn by Wnlston & Co. InC' All e(llre;slum, uf llllinlOn ale .,ubJeet to C'h,1I1)!C wlthlIt Iwtue So. en. InC', nntl OffHt'I … Dllctttll!, I1IHI lherCQf. IIUlchn;c, scll und mu) hnvc un mtCl(';t In the ,.'LIII itlt' ment'Tlct\ h(,ICIII mnl,ct eHel ' lIltcn,letl 111111 111 c–cnt('t\ .1 n j!enel.l1. wformnJ comme.ntlllY on dny to 'lny IllllTk(.'i new nnd nut nil n ('t)Ill)Icte A,hhtJJ1JIJ illfmllllltJon ,,, IHI)' lu herem WIll lie Curmllhed Ullon request ' 'lll

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1963
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Walston &Co. Xell' YOI'I.. Sioc/, Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 17, 1963 The following is a summary of a talk by the writer to the 16th Annual Convention of the Financial Analysts Federation held at the Palmer House, Chicago on May 15th. The stock market, as measured by the averages, is very near an all-time high,However from a technical viewpoint, there is very little resemblance between the technical of eighteen months ago and the pattern today. In November. 1961, the market was in an extremely vulnerable technical position.Market action had been deteriorating since the Spring of 1961. Breadth reached its high in April and failed to follow the averages into new high 'territory in August. By the time the Dow reached its high in November. the breadth index arid-most' other'technical iriaicators were in-a- – decidedly unfavorable position. By early 1962, a broad potential distributional top had been for–med in the averages, and in many individual stocks. The subsequent decline in May-June was the sharpest in 25 years. The Dow-Jones Indu trials declined 29 from the 1961 high,but the average decline for all New York stock E)(Cha common stocks was approximately 470/0. The good stocks declined with the bad and it was one of the few instances in recent years when it was worthwhile to licpidate entire portfolios in order to buy back at substantially lower levels. This drastic correction was confined to the stock market itself and had little effect on the general business picture. The Cuban crisis brought the market back to near the May-June lows and completed a six-month potential base pattern in the broad 525-625 area. The upside penetration of this area inNovember and the favorable the present advance. After a 200 -point advance to near the level fr0Iehih t e vulnerable is the market at the moment The Dow i 9 indices indicated 0 detrune started, how approximately 19 times earnings and at about 18-17 times possible f 12. This is high but erably below the 24 ratio of 1961. \\ \\.) ,T.he .leadership .in,the present advance has.been.go(td. e-T.heIeaders.have beenimr.estm entl issues that are an important been institutional and Ion -ter . llYerages. The buyers of these issues have The public has been slow in coming- back to the market. T e a ers who were badly burnt in the 1962 decline are conspicuous by th' a . ' – Technically, th e s s little vulnerability although some warning signals are beginning to appear. Our bath index is mOving ahead with the averages and there is, as yet, no sign of deviati his index usually gives a warning signal long before the averages reach their ultimate hlgh. Furthermore, no important distributional tops have been formed in the averages or in individual stocks. However, there is, in our opinion, a distinct possibility that the present advance is nea ing at least a temporary top. The reason is that the majority of individual stocks have not yet built up sufficient base patterns to indicate levels much above the present market. Most individual stocks fall into one of two patterns. In the first group are the issues that held above the 1960 lows in the 1962 decline. This simply means that these stocks have been in the process of forming a base for two or more years. These bases indicate long-term price levels, considerably above present prices. However, approximately two-thirds of all listed issues declined below the 1960 lows in the 1962 decline. The potential base patterns formed since May-June'are only of a yeats- duration. The upside potentials of these bases have already been reached in a number of cases. From a technical viewpoint, it would appear that some time will be needed to broade the bases and indicate new high territory. With the majority of issues needing further consolidation, it would not appear that a roaring bull market is immediately in the offing. Rather we would expect a continuation of a broad tramg area with the action of individual stocks more important than the general market. When the pattern is eventually completed we would expect a decisive upside pene- tration of the 1961 highs and substantially higher market levels. Dow-Jones Ind. 724.81 Dow-Jones Rails 167.88 EDMUND W. TABELL WJLSTON & CO. ,rnc. Thill mnrket letter IS not, and under no Clrcumstnnces IS to he lied liS, nn OffCI tn …ell 01 j\ bohellotlOli ttl Iouy lIny beclIlltics Idel retl t hel eln The inf' mntum cntained herein is not guaranteed as to UUI tlcy Ot and the fill nIhlnl! thereuf 1 flul, und Untlci lin ell 11 tu he l'UIHt1 lied nl, n rCIlll.lentn tlOn by Walston 8 Co, Inl' All eltpreS81Onl tlf OPInion are .,uhJel't tu ('h.lnl!e \\Ithtlul nullce WnJ..ton & Cu., Inc.. an.1 Offleeu, Dlrecttlrs, Stu..)hulder,., IIlul l-mployees thereof, pUlchnse, sell end mny have nn Intel est In the helelli. mflrCl leuel II Ifltendoe, and I'recntcd merely U-I II j.(enelnl beInformul commentary on doy to day market news and nut u'! n eomplete unnl'''I Addltltlnnll1lfulnlntlun …. Ith to lin)' Icfelled to heleln will upon request \\. ,01

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 24, 1963
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W—a-lsItnocn.&–C-o-. Memhel. ,ve/(' York Siock Exchange FILE CfJ)PV NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFIces COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 24th, 1963 For the first time in twelve weeks, or since early March, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed lower on the week. Friday's closing level of 720.53 compares with the May 17th close of 724.81. The rise from the March intra-day low of 656.66 to this week's high of 728.76 has been an almost straight line advance. Normal technical action would call for a correction somewhere along the way. A normal one-third to one-half correction of the seventy-two points rise of the last twelve weeks would bring the Dow-Jones back to the 704-692 level. A small potential top around the 725 level indicates a possible dip to 695. The February high was 694. 27. At this stage of the market pattern, -the price action of individual stocks is much more important than that of the averages, and this will continue to be true for a long time to come. It is our opinion that the market reached a major top in November, 1961 and a major bottom in June a year ago. It is now in a broad reaccumulation range that will eventually result in much higher levels. However, more time is probably needed to complete the pattern. One-third of the market held above its 1960 low in last year's decline and this group is already in a major advance with still higher levels ahead. As noted in recent letters, the issues that fall into this category have been the leaders of the advance. Their own private bear market ended tn 1960, not 1962, and these issues are a year or two ahead of the balance of the market. They will, of course, require resting periods and are prob- ably in the midst of such a consolidating phase at the moment. Most of the market strength in the past month has in situations. while the leaders of the advance from the Cuban crisis lows have b n . eack and forth in a relatively narrow area. In the meantime, many in'n w irds of the list are slowly completing constructive patterns. Stewart i e pIe. It rallied moder- ately from its June low around 23 to a high of 30 an sf! most of the last of 1962 diverse action can be with rotating leadership following each technical deCline'iih'em s ; t remember is that the market is, in our opinion, in a broad reaccu ul i n d ce weakness should be welcomed as an opportunity to add to holdings 1 e . tions. In our last reco e d 1St, we suggested the sale of Chrysler at the 120 level. This objective was reached week on the split stock at 60. This issue was recommended a year ago during the y-June decline at the equivalent of 25-20 in the present stock. Chrysler has considerable long-term promise but has reached the intermediate term obj- ective on our technical work and probably needs a consolidating period. It is removed from the recommended list for the time being. Other issues in our list are approaching selling levels and, when sold, should be replaced with other issues with favorable patterns. The following issues fall into this cate- gory. We would prefer buying on moderate price declines. CLOSE QUALITY YIELD Copper Range Denver Rio-Grande Disney, Walt Kansas City Southern Pittston Co. Stewart Warner Storer Broadcasting United Fruit 22 3/4 22 3/8 35 1/4 451/4 67 1/4 35 1/2 41 28 7/8 B.B B A- B B B B 4.5 1.1 4.4 2.4 4.2 4.4 2. 1 Dow-Jones Ind. 720. 53 Dow-Jones Rails 170.93 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. , INC. This mnrket letter 16 not. and under no cu'cumBtances 18 to be construed BS. an offer to sell or n Boll(,'ltntion tn buy any sec\lrities referred 'to herem The infurmation cont.luned herem Is not j!\IRtantccd as to accuracy or completeness and the (urnu,hlng thel cor not, and untie! no ell cumo;tnnces is to be cum.h ued 8S. n. represent. tlon by Walston Co, Inc All expre'SlOnR of opinIOn are subject to chanJ.!e without not lee Walston Co. Inc. unit OfficcIII. Dhecttlls. Stockholders ann thereof, purchase. sell and may have an Interest In the secUrities mentluneri heteln ThiS market letter IS mtended and proented merely as a Iteneral. mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analysis. At.llhtlOnul illtol matlOn \\Ith tellect til nny seO-lHlties refellet1 to 'herem will be furnished upon request ,\ 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 31, 1963
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Walston &- Co. Inc Selt 1'ol'k Siork Exchange -; . NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 31, 1963 The marketrquicklyrreversed its minor sell-off of last week and on Friday reached new high territory for the move at the intra-day high of 730.43. The Dow-Jones Industrial average has now closed higher on twelve of the past thirteen weekS,and our breadth index has kept pac!'!. Despite the steep advance in the averages, the market has been extremely selective; and a considerable number of issues have had relatively poor appreciation. In the main, the leaders of the advance have been in the type of stocks mentioned in our letter of May 3rd. These are the issues that held above their 1960 lows in the 1962 debacle. Most of the airlines autos, natural.gas, oils.rails,sugars, textiles and,utilities,fall into,this-category. ,It.is,i;n.l., these groups where most of the newall-time highs will be found. Very few new highs have been made in the groups where the majority of issues broke below the 1960 lows in 1962. In this category are aluminum, amusement, building, cement, chemicals, electronics, glass, meat packing, office equipment, photo, publishing, radio and TV, rubbers, steel and variety stores. From a technical viewpoint, the issues in the first category have had three years in which to build base patterns and are, therefore, considerably ahead of the stocks that had a – maximum of a year to build up base patterns from the 1962 lows of either May-June or October. These many diverse technical patterns are bound to result in a market in which indi- vidual selection will be of extreme importance. Possibly a third of the total number of listed' . stocks fall into the first category. The oils, for example, ing up base patterns for a very long time period. In some a e , the process of buildsa t of the patterns goes all the way back to the 1957 These t e appear to be com- pleted and indicate substantially higher levels over tfi ger e ,There will, of course, be' periods of technical correction and but . gr appears to be a buy on minor corrections. The rails fall into much the sam a ough the pattern here is more that-held'above t m r1 a – ostly to be-fourid-in the betterquality Western and Southern roads. e oils, have been in a basing out pattern since 1957 and indicate substan r 1 i er subject to minor corrective action. As time goes 0, of the listed stock '1 1 I 0 ly take quite some time, the remaining two-thirds lete base patterns. The aluminums, for example, reached new low ter' r in 1 ,but have succeeded in building up fairly substantial base. ew highs are yet indicated and the patterns are probably not complete, but the gro slowly entering the favorable long term category. Other groups still indicate the need of considerable time before the patterns are completed, and other group indicate the possibility of new lows before a base pattern is even started. With such a multiplicity of diverse patterns, it is rather futile to pay much attention to the action of the various averages. The Dow-Jones Industrial average is near the all-time high of 1961, but this average is heavily weighted with the good quality blue chip many of which held above the 1960 lows in 1962. A new high would not indicate the start of new bull market encompassing the great majority of all issues. Most stocks need more time to complete the patterns. We continue to advise a policy of attempting to take advantage of the diverse patterns and to sell when objectives are replacing with !!!at !!n uptrend. Collins & Aikman (41) reached its objective of 40, mentioned in our last recommen- ded list review, and is temporarily removed from the list. We are also removing Allied Chemical (50), American Optical (70), Continental Insurance (59) and North American Aviatio (58). Four of these issues show a profit and one (Continental Insurance), a small loss from originally recommended levels. The average gain of all five is 33 as compared with a 22/0 gain in the Dow -Jones Industrials during the same time period. As replacements, we suggest the issues mentioned in our last three letters. A new recommended list will be issued next week and can be obtained from your Account Executive. Dow-Jones Ind. 7'26.96 Dow-Jones Rails 173. 38 Y' – EDMUND w. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter IS not. and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as. an offer to sell III n soliCitation to bllY nny !';ecurllies retel red 'to herein The In!nrmatJon r.mtnlTl('d herem IS not guaranteed a .. to UCCIlI acy or completeness and the fUl nlshJnIl thelwf 1-. not. lind untlel no CllCUmbtllnN!S 11 to be ('Om,tllled Rb. R rCI)le..cntll tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc All exnreSSlonB uf opInion are to chnnJ.'e wllhnut IwtJ('C. Wah,ton & en. Inc, flnd OffICNIl. DlIeetOls, Sto('khtltders and Employees thcrcor. pUlchase, sell and may have an Intclcst in the scrllrllle'l mcntlllncl\ hClcln Thl' malkct lettcr IS mtended und preented merely as a J,enerfll. mrormal commentary on day to day market news and not us a cumplete Adtlitltlnlllilifulmntion with 1('Sllect tu IIny sc'ulitleo; Iderled to helem Will be !urmshed upon request \\-.. JOl —.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 04, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 04, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1963 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1963 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1963 page 3
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, LOW-PRICED SPECULATIVE Audio Devices Campbell Chibougamau Chicago & Nor. West Rwy El Paso Natural Gas Flying Tiger Foote Mineral Great West Financial International Packers Mesabi Trust Microwave . Murphy Corp. National Can Pacific Petroleun Reeves Bros. S e a b o-a.r d . F i n a n c e Sperry Rand .. ,..-.;;. Close 6/3/63 13 4' 5 16 23 7S 191S 131/4 10 12 20 17 3S 13l/S 11lS 205S 14 34 131/4 l4l4 21 14 Quality /0 Yield Comment B- Buy-Hold C Hold C Hold for 25 B 5.2 Buy at 17-16 Hold C Hold r B 0.9 Hold stk Hold B- 5.S Hold for 23-25 5.0 Hold for income B Hold 2.4 Hold for 25 B- stk Hold B- Buy-Hold B- 3.5 Hold for 21 — j -…- -r-.;,—- -..- ……H…. o–l.d for 22-24 B stk Buy-Hold June 4, 1963 Edmund W. Tabe11 Walston & Co. , Inc. 74 Wall Street New York 5, New York / ..' QUALITY AND LONG-TERM GROWTH Close 6/3/63 Quality 0/0 Yield Comment Caterpillar Tractor Corning Glass Crown Zellerbach DuPont General'Motors Gulf Oil International Bus. Machines Minne sota Mining Penney, J.C. Royal Dutch Standard Oil of N.J. Woolworth 45 3/4 166 3/4 531/2 252 73'1/2 45 473 1/4 5S 7/S 44 47 3/4 66 5/S 74 5/S A 2.2 A 1.2 A- 3.4 A (a) 3.0 A 47S . A 3.6 A O.S A 1.5 A 3.4 A 3.2 A 3.9 A- 3.3 Hold Hold- Buy at 150 Hold-Buy at 47-45 Hold-Buyat 230 -220 HorCi .Hold Hold for 490-500 Hold-Buy at 55 Hold Hold Hold Hold (a) Plus Stock – — ..- — – — .. -…,. .. —..- —-.. ..' , – —'– June 4, 1963 EDMUND W. TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST PRICE APPRECIATION Close 6/3/63 Quality /. Yield Air Products 67 3/4 B (a) Alside, Inc. 331/4 American Viscose 67 1/4 Atchison, Topeka & S. F. 29 3/4 A- Beaunit Corp. 241/8 B Burlington Ind. 35 B Burroughs 32 1/4 B Cluett, Peabody Consolidation .Coal 44 3/4 B 4L A— Copper Range 241/8 B Denver, Rio Grande 23 B Disney, Walt 341/2 B Electric Storage Battery 56 1/2 B Ex-Cell-O 45 1/4 A First Charter Financial 39 Fruehauf Trailer 32 3/8 B General Mills 36 1/8 A Great Northern Paper 42 7/8 B International Minerals & Chern. 55 7/8 B International Tel. & Tel. 47 7/8 B Kansas City Southern 46 1/2 A- Kern County Land 741/8 A Kerr McGee 39 3/8 A- Korvette, E.J. 27 1/4 McDermott, J. Ray 281/2 McKesson & Robbins 461/4 A- Newmont Mining Northwest Jlirlines Panhandle Eastern 83 A- 541/2 B –7'71/2'—– -A- – .,. — Pittston Co. 69 B Raytheon Co. Reynolds Metals 23 3/8 35 1/8 B B Schlumberger Stevens, J. P. Stewart-Warner 72 3/8 32 3/4 35 1/2 B B Storer Broadcasting 42 B Sundstrand Union Bag-Camp 27 5/8 40 5/8 B B United Fruit U. S. Plywood U. S. Vitamin 29 591/2 26 3/4 B AA Universal Oil Products Varian Associates 33 5/8 25 B B 0.3 1.7 3.0 4.9 5.0 3.4 3.1 3.7 3.6 4.3 1.2 3.9 3.5 stk 4.6 3.3 2.3 2.9 2.1 4.3 3.2 2.5 3.2 3.2 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.3 stk 1.4 1.4 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.6 3.7 2.1 3.4 2.6 2.2 June 4, 1963 (a) Plus stock dividend Comment Hold for 90 Hold for 42 -50 Hold for 75 -80 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 40 -50 Hold for 38 Hold for 53-55 Hold ——'-'—– Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold -Buy at 50 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 40 Hold for 50 – 55 Buy-Hold Hold for 50 -52 Buy-Hold Hold for 82 -85 Hold-Buy at 35-33 Hold for 40 Buy-Hold Hold Hold Hold for 60 Hold – Buy-Hold Hold for 28-30 Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold-Buy at 52-50 Hold for 30-32 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 07, 1963
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-.Walston &Co. —–Inc —– MCII/bel''' Xc/(' lol'k Slock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June'7, 1963 Last week's market action showed indications of a temporary loss of upside momentu The Dow-Jones Industrials.reached.,a new high for the move at 732.97, but declines outnum- bered advances in each daily session of the week. This is the poorest breadth action since the March low of 656. 66. In fact, from a technical viewpoint, the present pattern shows a clos similarity to the pattern in February. The Industrials had advanced,from the December low of 636.88 to a high of 694.27 in February and, like the present market, began to show signs of an overbought condition and the need of a technical correction. The subsequent decline carried to the top of the December support level of 660-635. There is a similar support in the present market at 695-655. The present potential top at around the 725 level suggests a possible decline fO-690, which woUld a normal technicafcorrection. 0 We continue to believe that the general market is in a broad re-accumulation area a the 1962 decline and that this re-accumulation period probably will require more time a broad general bull market is indicated. While the Dow-Jones Industrials at last week's intra-day high of 732.97 were quite near the November, 1961 top of 741. 30, this does not quite show the real picture. Obviously, all the thirty stocks in the Dow-Jones did not make their individual highs for the 1949-1961 bull market at the same day in November, 1961 when the average hit 741. 30. One stock, Chrysler, reached its high for the 1949-1961 bull market as early as 1955. Three stocks reached their highs in 1956, one each in 1957 and 1958, and the remaining twenty-four reached their highs in the 1959-1961 period. If each one of the thirty,stocks had reached their highs on the same day, the high for the Dow-Jones Industrial average would have been approximately 901. 85 instead of above the recent high of 732.97, or even 754. 57 which wou b quite a distance 'f all the thirty in the average reached their 1963 highs on the e r. Two companies on our recommended list were b ws developments this wp,pkl The Justice Department filed suit against merican Viscose'( 65) assets to F. M. C. Corp. and J. Ray McDer ending March nce ightly lower.earnings for the year . s' r Marchquarter. ..' . In regard to American (1) The company is sellin con . intention is to liquidat 0\. . acts are true, as they have been all along. el&.i iquidating value. (2) Management's obvious As far as th t suit is concerned, both FMC and Avisco have announ ced that they will con t t. 'r chances of winning such a contest appear good and, should the government fail to mjunction blocking the immediate sale, it could go through fa ly quickly. Should FM nd Ame rican Viscose lose an eventual court battle, another buyer for the assets could probably be found on substantially the same terms. Meanwhile, the stoc in the low 60's is selling near its inherent worth based on the value of its Monsanto Chemical and the earning power of the textile and cellophane business. (See our letter of April 19th). Near term action may be slow depending on the development of litigation proceedings, but we continue to advise retention. In regard to J. Ray McDermott, the president of the company pointed out quite clearly that in a contracting business, profits for a given period are no indication of the profitability of the contracts being worked on. The m03t notable thing about the McDermott report was the 38 increase in sales to record levels. Given the nature of McDermott operations, it ap- pears logical to expectsales ultimately to be reflected in sharply improved earnings. Based on earnings of 2. 70 for the year ended March 30th, the stock is'selling at only slightly more than ten times earnings. The stock should be held and bought On weakness. We are adding Braniff Airways (13 1/2) to the low priced-speculative group of our rec ommended list. This stock has shown below average action compared to most airlines — mainly because earnings have shown only slight improvement and first quarter earnings showed a loss. However, the longer term prospects are encouraging and speculative pur- chase for the longer term is recommended. Dow-Jones Ind. 722.41 Dow-Jones Rails 170.98 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This mnrket letter IS not, lind under no circumstances IS to be construed liB, an olTer to sell 01 Ii IwhcltntlOn to buy nny Becuflties referred to herein The m(nrmation contninerl hereIn 18 not guaranteed as to nCCUTncy or completene.s lind the fUl thelco( It' not. nnd no ell cnmstanl'elJ Is to be I',Jnshut'd as, n fepresenta- twn by Walston & Co. Inc All expressIOns or opmlon are bubJect to chnn)!c WIthout nutH'e Wullston &; Co, Inc.. and Dllectnl8. Stockholders and thereor. purchase. sell and may have an Interest In the I\eeurltles mentmnert helein ThiS market letter Is Intendetl nnd pre.entCti merely (UI a I!enerlli. mtormlll commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete Additmnni InfolmntlOn with leslloeC't to Dny 5eC'Ulltlet rdell'ed to hel'ein Will be furnished u,pon request. \\.. Jll

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1963
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Walston & Co. —–lnc —– ,Yell' lm Ie Siock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 14, 1963 11- It would be a pity to allow the month of June to go by without noting the fact that we are approaching the .anniver.sary of the 1962 market low of 524. 55, and the culmination of the selling debacle which swept the financial community in the Spring of 1962. Wall Street is, of necessity, orientated toward the future, and the memory of the past is short. Yet, it is bare lya year ago that many investors watched the ticker run until 8 0 'clock in the evening as the speculative frenzy of 1961 came to its inevitable end in a wild rush to sell e1uities at sharpl depressed prices. About the last thing that anybody in the financial community expected in June, 1962, wa tnat within a year the Dow-JonesInduStriaraverage woulcfhllvewipeaoutaimost an of'11s loss. Certainly, this letter claims credit for no such prescience.By late June, 1962, howeve the panic nature of the decline became so evident that we resorted to the rather unusual step of enclosing a memorandum to investors which was mailed along with June statements to every Walston & Co. Inc. account. In that memo we said' For the long term investor, the investment odds are more favorable at the moment than for some time.. , … The averages …… are at a very strong support zone in the 525-450 area, (and) the downside risk appears to be relatively small as compared to the possible upside potential over the next several years . We said – If the investor is interested in long term growth, the decline has brought a number of excellent quality growth issues down to near or below the average price to earn- ings ratios of the past ten years. At the recent lows, Interna Machine, Corn- ing Glass, Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing, Minneapoli H n ll03.nd DuPont, fall into this category. These five stocks have advanced an f si that time. The memorandum then pOinted out that ed' ncome could obtain a 5 or better yield on stocks of the quality of ndard Oil of New Jersey, International Harvester, American Can and . Today, 5 yields are consid- erably ha'derioco.me .1yand from their prices of a year ago. In the businessman ave..advanc.ed.an averag.e yo .' i\; memo stated, issues like International Minerals & Chemical, G ue ,rysler, Kerr-McGee and Diamond National appear most attractive for 0 er preciation. These five issues have advanced an average of 77, in 1 a 1 vance in Chrysler. Yet, despite the bar eflated prices that prevailed a year ago, the advance has been, in the old cliche, arket of stocks rather than a stock market. It is not at all diffi- cult in searching thro gh the stock list to find issues even today that are selling for less than they sold for last June. As this letter pOinted out all through the Summer of 1962, in order to participate in the 1962-63 rise, it was necessary for the investor to upgrade his portfolio and to switch out of second and third rate growth issues into the institutional qual- ity stocks that were to be the leaders of the advance. It is here, perhaps, that one finds the relevance of the 1962 break for the investor in June of 1963. The first half of 1962 was perhaps the only period in recent market history where the wisest course of action was to be out of the stock market entirely. The reason for the sharp advance in the issues mentioned above is the fact that the market break brought perfectly sound, high quality stocks down to bargain levels. Since that time, reason, as it . toultimately must, has prevailed and the blue chips which had no real reason in the first place have advanced sharply, many of them to new highs. Those stocks that were bla- tantly overpriced in the first place, have done nothing. The point is that something like the 1962 break occurs once in a generation. Certainly after the sharp rise of the past year, it is unlikely that the averages will achieve a percent- age advance equal to that of 1962-63. However, whatever the averages do, it is quite cer- tain that all stocks will not move in the same direction as they did in the market of a year ago. For 1963, it will be far more important to select individual stocks with good fundamen- tal and technicaLbacll;gcr.ouo.Gslthanrto guess the probable action of the general market. Dow-Jones Ind. 722.03 Dow-Jones Rails 169.79 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrkct letter IS not. and undt'r no circumstnnces is to be construed as. an onel' to .wll or a sulicilatlfln to buy any lIecllt Ihc-. refeL red 't.. hel Cln The mformation contUined herem IS not as to accuracy or completeness and the fm nlshlnr thereur nut. nnd umlel no CII cumstance IS tu be Clmttl LIed as n repi esenta tiun by Walston & Co. In(', All expreSSIOn') uf oPinion are llhJect to chan)!e wlthllt nntue Wabton & Cu. Inc.. natl Offlcel.. DllcctIS, StJckhuldcn, Dnd Employees thereof, purchase, sell nnd mny have an mterest in the mcntwncd hCI ('Ill 'fhl market letter III intended Hnd merely fit a t.enerul. miormal commentary on dny to day market news nnd not- as a complete afwlYhl.!! Adflrtm1I1 mimmntlOn l\lth 1eIect tu lilly .e('Ul'lties retellcd to hCI'Clfl Will be furnished upon f!!qUest ,,\ 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 21, 1963
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-7)L Walston &Co, —;'-Inc Member.. Xel/' rorh Stork ETCilange NEW YORK ' SAN FRANCISCO ' LOS ANGELES ' PHILADELPHIA ' OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERseAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 21, 1963 The market, as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial average, has held in an un- usually narrow,range foralmosttwo months. Early in April, the Industrial average pushed the 700 level and reached an intra-day high of 724.69 early in May. Since that time, the mtra-day range has been between a high of 732.97 and a low of 708.16. This is the equi- valent of a two-month trading area between 73 1/4 and 70 7/8 in an individual stock. There have been several attempts to break out of this area, but the buying or selling in each instance failed to follow through. Obviously, this area will be eventually penetrated. An upside penetration would indi- cate a possible750. A downside penetration would indicate a possible 690-675. Shorter term breadth action is not too clear, but the probabilities appear to favor a downside penetration. In any event, no move of any great significance is indicated in either direction and, a noted many times recently in this letter, the market is in a stage where the action of indivi- dual issues is vastly more important than that of the averages. At the start of the year, it was the opinion of this letter that 1963 would be an inside year as far as the averages were concerned and that the averages would not move above the 1961 high or below the 1962 low. This still remains our opinion despite the fact that we could envision a modest new high in the Industrial average above the 1961 peak of 741. 30. This would, in our opinion, be of no great technical significance. Just a little over a year ago after the Industrial average had reached a low of 553.75, our letter of June 1st, 1962 said – Over the longer term, we envision a lengthy may last into 1964 – 1965. It may be very similar to the 1946-1949 period. In 6, ctW-Jones Industrials declined 25 from 213 to 160 and then held in a ran etllV 6 5 until late 1949. Translating this into the present market would tr n nge between 553 and 675 until some time in 1965. Obviously, this is a . The timing and the scope be quite different in the earlier po. . much more m the e t . probable that t!lJ'Jr.admg area wl,ll be broader. If we are in error it' the upside of the range. The average may return to the 700-750 declining below we find it difficult to envision the average . In fact, we doubt if the Industrial average will sell much below 5 i Just like 19 e 9, e nyone reading this letter. ieve the eventual breakout of this long trading area will b on the upside, but the psi otential will not be ascertainable until the pattern is com- pleted. It will be subs ally above the 1961 high. These long range accumulation patterns usually require consi erable patience and are difficult to recognize while they are taking place because different stocks are at different stages of the pattern. The international oils, for example, reached their highs in 1957-1959, rather than in 1961, and the lows in 1960, not 1962. Their long term base patterns are probably completed. They will, of course, have technical corrections, but if every stock in the Dow-Jones Industrial average had the same long4erm pattern as the international oils, the long-term upside potential for the Industrial average would be in the 1200-1400 area. Other issues are still in the early stages of devel- opment. The stocks that are in a more advanced stage of the accumulation pattern will be found in the stocks that. in 1962, did not break the 1960 lqws. See our letter of May 3rd and the four-page list of stocks that held above their 1960 lows. Diverse action will continue. Three issues in our recommended list reached the up- side potential noted in our list of June 4th and are removed from the list. They are' Inter- national Tel & Tel in the Price Appreciation list, and Chicago & North West Railway and Seaboard Finance in the Low- Priced Speculative Group. There are quite a few issues that we would like to add to our recommended list on moderate weakness. A list of these stocks will be given shortly. The subsequent intra-day low at the end of June, 1962 was 524.55. Dow-Jones Ind. 720.78 Dow-Jones Rails 174.00 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThlR mnrket letter 1'1 not, nnd under no circumstnnces IS to be II'. an ofrC! to 01 n solicitl'lhnn to I'IIY IIny eCcl1 cd tu hel em The wformobon ('ontmned herem is n()t 1-\lRranteed as to accuracy 01 completeness oncl the rm nu,hulJ,! thel cor ill not. nnd l1n(lCi 110 ell Clltnstnn('(; II! to be contlllro till, n rcprccnta- tlon by Wnhlton & Co. Inc All expressions uf oPInIOn are flubJcct to chnnJ.,(c \Hth,'ut notice Wnbton & Co Inc and Offlcel!! Dl1cctms Stockholders and 1-mployees thereof, purchnlle, sell and may have an mteret In the lIecliritiClo mentiuned helel1\ ThiS mnrJ..et iN alld m'erelY a J.,(encral mfurmnl commentary on day to dnl' market news 811t1 nol as n complete annbslN. A.lthtlUllullllfuin18tlun …. Ith Ie.pcct tu any lIe('Ullhcs refClleti to helcm will !urlllshcd \i,Pon request \\-. 301 , 'I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 28, 1963
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Wdlston &Co. – – – – – I n c – -……- .11rm/(,I Xrll' III'!.' St()rk E'rlwll.QC FILE NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 28, 1963 After holdmg for forty-four trading days in a narrow range bounded by the May 31st high of 732.97;' and ,the' early May low of 708. 16, the Dow-Jones Industrials moved lower this week and reached an intra-day bottom of 702. 42 on Thursday. As noted in last week's letter, the downside objechve of the top at 710-730 on our point and figure chart of the Dow is somewhere in the 685-675 area. A decline to this area now becomes a probability. This would hardly be any great catastrophe, Were the averages to reach the lower part of this range, at 675, the correction would be less than 8. This would not be a great deal sharper than the 5. 4 correction experienced m February, and certai'11y must be count ed as normal afterosqm\, Based on what has taken place so far, the chances of a decline 'much below 675 -'-' at thIS point – – appear rather small. We have, nonetheless, reached a rather important stage for the market analyst. In our letter of March 1, 1963 which, coincidentally, was written on the day the market hit its bottom after the February correction, we pointed out that, since there was little chance of the decline's developing into anything serious, that the important thing to worry about was not the extent of the drop, but the character of the next rally. We suggested, indeed, that the downswing, which had reached a low of 656. 66, presented a rather attractive short-ter buying opportunity. The question about the character of the rally was answered when our breadth and volume indicators moved ahead along w1th the April-May rise in the Dow. The market, at the moment, 1S at the same sort of juncture, and thus the type of action to be displayed over the next few weeks becomes In broad outline, a number of courses are p'ESible. One is that the awe COl d form a new base slightly under current levels and move on into new i 0 Y w' onfirmation in breadt and volume figures. This would mean simply that the u end w' began in October had not yet run its course. Another possibihty ov new highs in the averages not confirmed by the various ind1ces of market b a . T' ould constitute a repeat of what st -aH-itude-of-ext-reme-CRution-,- . While either one of would be for the market to re a more probable course of action ughlf. the 675-730 range with our breadth index acting about the same s . 5 would be consistent with the sort of long term consolidation peri W I as repeatedly insisted must be the precursor of a new major bull mar t beg ter m the 1960's. It is pOSSible, in terms of the averages, of course, that a decli e 5 followed by a rally to a pomt below 730 could broaden the top and produce an ultim lower downside indication for the Dow. Th1S, however, is largely academic as a scrutiny of indlVidual stock patterns must inevitably show. As we have previously pointed out, a large minority of individual stocks made their lows not in 1962, but in 1960, and have been spending from four to five years forming bases, bases whiCh, in the recent move, have been penetrated On the upside. Some of these, es- pecially some which have been market leaders in the latest upswmg, have made short term tops. If the averages are to move somewhat lower, these quite ObvlOusly could reach the downside objectives of these short term tops which are, in most cases, close to major sup- port levels. However, since they have already completed long term bases, any such declin would constitute an extremely attractive buying opportunity. On the other hand, in those stocks which have not completed the1r longer term base formations, broadening of the short term tops could indicate considerable risk. All this is another way of saying that in any long range accumulation area, such as the one now taking place, action will be highly diverse. We have consistently pointed out that the excessive concentration on, the averages is, especially at this stage of the market, largely futile. An accumulation area is, after all, the prelude to an eventual major upswing. In a great many stocks a decline from current levels may well produce one of the last major buying Dow-Jones Ind. 706.88 Dow-Jones Rails 173.66 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 1 hI 111111 i(!ttci h Itut ,Ind unlll!l nu U\l.l11l, …UIIlCC' h to he (llhli ltC ,11\ lTe. In ,,\,1 II H (llll'I(.,111I I.u .'n) 'Cf,lll…1 l .. llCIC11I The ,nf'l1lo,tll' ( nt.,illl''' I! lIul j.!IIHll1nt-'(',1 n' tu IICCU' IItY III (.('ml,klcllt… ntl.1 thc I c.,f I…. 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