Viewing Month: July 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 05, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 05, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - July 05, 1963
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– .Vell/bel., Xell' York Siock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 5, 1963 After reaching an intra-day low of 698.86 on Monday, the Dow-Jones Industrials staged a quick turnabout and, at Friday's intra-day high of 719.02, had recovered over half of the thirty-five point decline from the early June peak of 732.97. At Monday's low, several of our shorter term technical indicators had almost reached an oversold position. Probably another testing of the recent lows is in order. The trading shelf of May-June between 732 and 708 will take time to penetrate. The downside implication of this area indicated a decline to the 685-675 range A further advance that failed to move above the June high could broaden this potential. All of the above, of course, relates only to the shorter term trend of the market. We see'no indication of a move of major-iffipQ';tance in direction in ftiture. The longer term pattern remains the same. In 1961-1962, the market was in a major distribu- tional area,and the basic policy was to sell on strength. The present technical pattern of the market is quite the opposite. In our opinion, the market is in a major reaccumulation area, and the basic investment policy should be one of buying on weakness. It will, however, be pointless simply to buy stocks indiscriminately. The reason for this lies in the rather unique character of the past few years in stock market history. Al- though the market break of 1961-62 was undoubtedly a bear market in the classic sense of the word, it was without precedent in the sense that a great many stocks had topped out long before the actual high in the averages — some as early as 1956. A good many of these stocks reached their lows in 1960 rather than 1962 and, by that time, had completed most of the reaccumulation necessary to embark on a major minority of stocks, the 1962 break was not a major bear market but an intermedi t t rCf ction. Likewise, any weakness that takes place at this time will, in and will present a major buying opportunity. q eon ort-term correction In addition to those equities which had 1960, the market action of the past year has enlarged the bases on still 0 r la group of stocks, and weakness at e e,of-a–reaccumula-tionarea. – -' Our recommended list to be in these two categories in con- trast to the majority of issues h stWiii the early stages of basing-out patterns. We would add to the teo i 1 U n weakness to the levels noted. Stock R Price Dividend Yield Buying Range Abbott Laboratories 97 2.20 2.3 87-85 Amerada Petroleum 69 2.00 2.9 62-60 Babcock & Wilcox A 57 1. 72 3.0 50 Cenco Instruments B 47 .50 1. 1 45-43 Clark Equipment A- 42 1. 40 3.3 40-38 Friden, Inc. B 36 .40 1. 1 32-30 General Cable A 51 2.00 3.9 48-46 General Electric A 80 2.00 2.5 76-74 Litton Industries B 75 stock 70-67 McGraw Edison A- 39 1. 60 4.1 37-35 Midland Ross B 66 3.00 4.5 63-60 Radio Corp. A- 71 1. 40 2.0 65 Southern Railway B 67 2.80 4.2 60 Stand. Oil of Calif. A 66 2.00 3.0 60 Swingline 36 1. 10 3. 1 35 United Airlines 38.50 1. 3 36- 34 In the lower-priced speculative category, we would include Hewlett- Packard Libby-McNeill & libby Pennsylvania R. R. Universal Match B BBB 23 15 stock 19 .25 1.3 18 .40 2.2 22-20 14-13 18 17-16 Dow-Jones Ind. 716.45 Dow-Jones Rails 174.75 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not. anti under no Circumstances .1 to be as, on offel tn ..ell 1)1 n 'uhcltatiun tIl hllY lin), ecUl itle.. l(rCII ed to hel eln The m(l mnthln ('t1ntained herein IS not Iotunrnnteed n to aceUl ncy or completcne-.s nnd the furnl!!hllll! lheleu( .-. liCIt, nnd un'CI 110 .. 1-. to be tnll-.t, ued n.., n rC!llc-.enh,- t!un by Walston & Co, Inc All uf opinIOn arc ..uhJcct to. chllllJre \\ Ithpul Wnlbton & Co, Inc Imd OffIC('I'lS, DlIcctt'IS, Stuckholder, IUlIl F,mpioyces therl'Of. plII'chase, sell and mny hllve an mtetest in the mc;ntlllncri hC(!11l lh. ma.l-.cl lettN I illtcndeunnd Ilret'cnted merely m. II f.,t'('IIClltl. mformll.l commentary all ony to da,. mnrket IIC…..J\ alld nut as n comllJete nnnly,ch Acl,hhHnul IIlfOi matlon \\ Ith ttl /lilY bCCUlltl('21 Icfciled tu helem Will he furnished upon request \\ '\ 101

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 12, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 12, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - July 12, 1963
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Walston &- Co. – – Memhel''' XCII' York Stock E.'rCliallge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 12, 1963 The market appears tobe-in the process of testing the July 1st low of 698.06 on the Dow-Jones Industrials. The holiday week rally topped out at 719.02 last Friday, and the market drifted lower during most of the past week. Friday's intra-day low was 705.21. The decline has been selective with a fairly large number of new highs for the year reached on each day, despite a decline in the averages. Most of our short term technical work indicates the probability that the July 1st low will not hold. The downside pqtential of the MayJune top of 685-675 was possibly broadened a bit by the retracement to 719.02 and the downside potential is now indicated as a possible 685-665. A decline to the lower part of this range would be approxima.tely a .one.;;third.correction oJ. the ag,,1ince .from the Cuban crisis low of 549. 65 of last October. This would be a normal technical retracement. If such a decline occurred, it would place the market in an oversold position and would present, in our opinion, a worthwhile buying opportunity. The shorter-term technical pattern has been slowly deteriorating since early June, but the longer term pattern remains favorable. It has been the contention of this letter that the market is in the process of a broad reaccumulation area that will eventually result in a much higher level of prices. These long term accumulation patterns are extremely trying on the patience. They consist of a series of up and down price movements during which stocks slowly pass from weaker into stronger hands. All of this requires time as witness the 1946-1949 accumulation base which was the foundation for the 1949 to 1961 bull market. The basic investment policy during such long term ness just as selling on strength should have been the basic v be to buy on weak- . tolicy in the 1961 – 1962 distributional market. The action of our long term breadth index at om t' uite interesting as com- pared to its action in the 1961-1962 market PiOto ra In April of 1961, the Dow- Jones Industrials reached a new high of 714. at tame time, the breadth index also reached a.new high. 0 ued high of 741. 30 in December, 1961, ct\f0.hde;O'ailed to better its April high. This diver- gence was one of the factors t is turn extremely bearish in August of 1961 and suggest a 0s to the pattern not b . s n . In the present market, there is no resemblance e een no divergence between the action of the averages and the breadth inde e a oth moving up and down together. It is true, of course, that such a divergence a cur at a later date, but in such an event, plenty of warning would be given. In mo ases in the past, the divergence has occurred several months before the market averages reach their high. If the market declines to the 685-665 area, we believe it should be welcomed as a buying opportunity. In last week's letter we mentioned twenty stocks that we would add to our recommended list during periods of market weakness and indicated possible buying ranges. In our recommended list, there are a sizable number of issues in which we would add to holdings in the event of a price decline. In stocks mainly for long term capital gains we would suggest the following. Stock Buying Range Air Products (62 5/8) 60-55 Cluett Peabody (48 1/4) 45-43 Copper Range (21 3/8) 20-18 Disney (Walt) (39 5/8) 37-35 First Charter Fin. (40 1/4) 38-36 Stock Buying Range Fruehauf Corp. (28 7/8) 29-27 Intern'l Minerals (54 1/8) 50-48 McDermott, J. R. (24 1/2) 24-23 Reynolds Metals (33 5/8) v. S. Plywood (56 7/8) 31-29 52-50 Dow-Jones Ind. 707. 70 Dow-Jones Rails 174.00 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter not. Rnd under no circumstances IS to be I'on..t. ued as. an offer to ell 01 a solicltatton til buy any secUiltiC!l referred ttl hel em The mCclI'mllllon contamed hert'lo IS not Iruaranteei as to Reel' racy or completeness nnd the (UI nihhln)! thcl(of 1 not, nnd Ilndel no dl I to be ('uobhucd 88, n I epi c..entn. tlon by WHiston & Co., Inc All expresll4lm; of opinIon arC' hubJNt to chanl-(e Without Il1llll'(' Wa';ton & Co, Inc, and OfTlcels. nnll tmploy(!(S thereof. lieU and may ha\e nn Interest In the I.ecurihe'l mentHU1cil herein 'fhls mnrl.et letter IS mtemled ond Ilre..ented merely all 0 I-(cnerlll. Informal commentnry on cloy to day mnrket news nnd not a9 a complete nnnlYhh At!htwnnllllfolmnhon \\lth le'lleet tl) ony lleculltle8 lefciled to helem Will be (urnLshed USlon request \\), JOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 26, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 26, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - July 26, 1963
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Walston &- Co. Inc FIit Mem Iel R X ell' Y 01'/. Siock Exchayc NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LET.TER , July 26,1963 At Monday's intra-day low of 684.41, the Dow-Jones Industrials reached the upper part of the 685-665 area which we have been mentioning as the downside potential for the present move. Several of our shorter-term technical indicators have entered oversold territory and, from at least a short term viewpoint, the market should be watched closely for a possible change in the downward trend which has been in effect since early June. The downtrend line connecting the June highs of 732. 97 and 727.60, and the early July high of 719.02, now stands at about the 710 level. Whether the market reached its low at 684.41, or must work somewhat lower into the 685-665-range,is still problematicaL AS7et,-there are nO'definite'signs of a reversal. Short term breadth action has improved over the past few days, but the downtrend line from the June high is still in effect as it is on the price average itself. Upside volume on both the 25-week and 10-week moving totals continue to decline. The fact that the market has entered oversold territory on our short term indicators is constructive, but must await more definit signs of a trend reversal. The policy outlined in our letters for the past month has been to buy on' weakness. In our last three market letters we listed thirty stocks that, in our opinio were suitable for purchase for long term capital appreciation. We mentioned buying ranges on each issue below the market and, as of this date, ten of the thirty issues have entered the buying range. We would continue this policy of buying on weakness. At the risk of being repetitious, we believe the general market is in a broad accumu- lation area that will probably take longer to complete. is ready to embark ona major bull market of the proportions of the 1949-1961 's, e ig probably have a series of. swings back and forth in a relatively wide !'Fa' similar to the 1946-1949 period when the market A e, price action will be d in a narrow trading range for almost four years before a new high was s base period was the founda tion for the 1949 -1961 major bull market. er interest in equities today, it is probable esent market than in 1946. and 1949, and also the price swings may be this nature are rather trying on the pa- tience while they last, but Qe to a broad market advance. During periods 0 0 ere are always opportunities for appreciation in individual groups k. ar' s groups are in various stages of the broad market pattern. Some are in e ar ges of a bull market while others are still in the last stages of a bear marke . trick is to find the issues that are in an advanced stage of the market pattern. Since May-June 1962 lows, this letter has advocated the rather crude method of concentrating attention on the stocks that in 1962 did not break below their 1960 low. The reasoning behind this thought was that the stocks that held above the 1960 lows ha probably reached their bear market lows two years before the general market and had al- ready formed a sizable potential two-year base pattern, while the issues that broke to new lows had to go through the long tedious process of forming a new base. In addition, the stocks that reached new low territory have heavy overhead supply that must be penetrated. This also takes time. As mentioned in last week's letter, the stocks that held above their 1960 lows have shown the best relative action in the advance from the lows of a year ago. This favorable action will probably continue into the foreseeable future. They should be bought during periods of market decline. These groups include, among others, Agricultural Equipment, Airlines, Autos and Equipment, Broadcasting, Coal, Cosmetics Machine Tools, Metals and Metal Fabricating, Natural Gas, Oil, Rails, Savings & Loans, Textiles and Utilities. Dow-Jones Ind. 689. 38 Dow-Jones Rails, 165.79 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'l market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to he nil. an offci to sell UI n I!UllCItatWll tel bllY any '1CClllltieo. terCl)Cl) tu hel Cln The mfiJrmatlon ('on tal ned herein IS nol nil to accuracy or coml'lctene.s nnd the fUI nl'lhlnJ,! thereuf ,- lIot and Iindcl un CII cllm.. tan('c'l to he (un..t' lied R'I, n rePI !-.C'nta- hun by Wnlston & Co. Inc All of ornnlon nrc subJect to rbnnj.e \\ltbullt Wah-ton & (;. Inc. and Offlce!s, Duecturs, Stockhulders and Jomployees thereof, lHlrchnse, sell and may have lin Interest In the mentmed heleili. market leHer I IIltcndcd and Ilre-cntCfI merely II n J.cneral Informal cummentary on dny to ClIlY market news and not a complete ann I),,,,; Adthtwnnl lIlfUlnmtlDn …. ,tb tu tiny -.('el11 1111''' ldoled to hCleln …. ill ue furnll,hed UJon request \'.\ 101

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