Viewing Month: December 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 06, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 06, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - December 06, 1963
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., Walston &reo. Inc Memher,q Xell' YO/'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVElSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER December 6, 1963 By the end of last week, the Dow-Jones Industrial average was again flirting with newall-time highs. Thursday's close of 763.86 was, indeed, a newall-time high closing, but Thursday's and Friday's intra-day highs were just under the all-time peak of 767.24. The market's emotional response to President Kennedy's assassination, and its equally emotional correction of that response have distorted recent stock market history. At 1 p. m. on November 22nd, the Dow was selling at 735.87. On November 26th, the next trading day, it opened at 738. 43. In other words, eliminating the panic selling which 11,.,,,,4 the assassination, we have a continuation of a rally which began in mid-November and has now carried to new highs. This rally neatly.fits the traditional.year.end pattern. What must be remembered is that the rally, so far, also fits perfectly into the pic- ture of a mature upswing which was evident long before November 22nd. Our breadth index reached a high at the end of August and was followed into new high territory by the Dow a days later. Since that time, although the market made new highs in six of nine weeks up to the end of October, the breadth index remained in a downtrend both on a daily and weekly basis. What is quite obviously taking place is that the advance to new highs is being led by fewer and fewer stocks. This is characteristic of an upswing nearing its peak. The following table shows the price of each of the thirty stocks in the Dow-Jones In- dustrial average at its 1963 high prior to November 22nd, and key dates following. It is in- teresting to note that although the averages are almost at new highs, only four stocks are above their previous peaks. Such stocks as American Can, American Tobacco, Anaconda, Chrysler, Standard Oil of California, United Aircraft and are considerably under their earlier highs. In other words, as we have poin e ious letters, a good many groups have already lost momentum. As ro 0 this, it is going to become increasingly difficult to sustain the rally, ev n ough stocks may move the averages higher. 1963 HiJLh To 111 Z'l Close N p Open Nov. 26th Close Dec. 5th Allied Chemical 55 1/4 Alum. Co. Amer. 703 8 W/8 cS)0 American Can 47 3 American Tel & T e l l O 53 61 41 1/8 140 553/8671/8 42 1/8 141 1/8 Anaconda Co. 5 45 Bethlehem Steel 4 29 1/2 Chrysler 9 3/4 78 3/4 DuPont, DeNemours 233 1/4 (al 220 Eastman Kodak 122 3/8 110 General Electric 85 1/4 75 3/8 General Foods 90 1/2 83 General Motors 91 3/8 743/4 Goodyear 433/8 383/4 International Harvester 63 1/8 553/8 International Nickel 681/4 613/4 International Paper 361/4 291/2 Johns Manville 51 1/2 46 Owens Illinois Glass 89 1/4 851/2 ProcterZ&rGambrer;;&..Ga8f3/8 . Sln'77 5/8 Sears Roebuck 101 7/8 Standard Oil of Calif. 691/4 91 1/8 571/8 Standard Oil of N.J. Swift & Co. Texaco Union Carbide United Aircraft U.S.Steel Westinghouse Elec. 733/8 443/8 741/2 1153/4 537/8 571/2 415/8 673/8 405/8 63 112 1/2 441/4 451/4 321/8 Woolworth DJ Ind. Aver. 80 1/2 767.24 76 3/4 711. 49 (al adj. for Genl. Motors distribution. 45 1/2 30 82 234 112 79 853/4 77 3/4 401/4 57 631/4 321/2 467/8 861/2 78 95 60 69 403/8 65 1/4 113 443/4 51 347/8 77 3/4 738.43 ANTHONY W. TABELL 44 1/4 30 1/2 90 3/8 248 118 3/4 83 1/8 861/2 791/4 41 1/2 59 1/8 653/4 33 491/2 86 1/4 80 991/4 60 727/8 42 3/8 67 1133/4 441/8 54 341/8 81 l/S 763.86 .. U'I 0 t;tl'lgllrn'tnnees IS to be construed us, fin offer to ReI! or R so lei Il 1011 n nny E'ell! I lib I 'fCII cl1 to hetein The Infm malion or completeness and the fllllllshlnl! lheleuf III not. and lImlcl no Cllcumstnnle; is to he rUllht!llOO 11.8, n relll'e..enta tlon by Walston & Co., Inc All expresSions or opinIOn are subject to chanJ.(C \\lthout notice Walston &. Co, In(', and Olflcenl, DllcctOls. Stockholtlers and Employees thereor, purchase, 8e\1 and may have an Interest In the seCUrities mentwned helem. 'ChltJ market letter is mtended lind prc..clItcd merely a .. a I!cnerat. mrormal commcntary on day to day market news and not as a complete annlysh! Add1twnnl mrOlmlilion ,th Ie,\led to Dny scrlll'lhe, l'dened to hCICln Will be rurnlshed upon request . \\\ 30\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - December 13, 1963
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…—– Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Membel . Xell' rnd Stnck Echonge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 13, 1963 The rails showed the most favorable market action during the past week. In June, when the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached an intra-day high of 732. 97, the comparable high on the Rail average was 177.92. The industrials pushed above the June high in September and have reached an intra-day high of 767.24. However, until this week, the rails have been unable to move above the June high. The upside penetration, from a technical viewpoint, indicates the probability of a further rise to the 185-190 level for the intermediate term. The industrials moved sidewise dUI'ing most ofthe.past week;– The-intra-day .' high on the rapid comeback from the November 22nd intra-day low of 710.83 was reached a week ago Friday at 767.21. This almost exactly equals the late October high of 767.24 and creates a potential double top if the industrials fail to penetrate the October high. However, the wide fluctuations in November have built a new technical pattern around the 740 level with somewhat enlarged potentials. Ability to move above the 767 level would indicate a further advance to the 775-795 level. This is about all that can be read on the upside and is not too far above the present level of around 760. The move back to the old high has also enlarged the possible downside objectives. A decline below the September low of 728. 63 would indicate a further decline to the 705-695 area. Thus, it would appear that the possibilities for the intermediate term are 30 points higher as against 60 points lower which are hardly favorable investment odds. The third of the Dow-Jones averages, the action recently. This average advanced from a in September. On November 22nd, the utilities dr to reach 134.95 and have shown little owe above their July low. 1 be ot poor technical high of 145.21 r July low of 136.53 ustrials and rails held –The most ulifavorabletechniba ad-fh action. In simple there – are more stocks going strength in the averages. Until late October there had bee 0 rna' n between the Industrial average and our breadth index. In 0 I over 1st, we noted a major divergence. The In- dustrial average at 767.24, but the breadth index failed to confirm. We suggested cauti l' ning commitments on strength in order to build up a buying reserve. On ber 15th another breadth index gave a cautionary signal. This index is based a 200-day moving average of advances and declines. As long as the total advances outnumber the total declines over the last 200 trading days, the index is favorable, but when declines outnumber advances, a cautionary signal is given This index crossed the zero line in mid-November. Contrary to general opinion, an unfavorable breadth signal does not indicate an immediate decline in the market. If it did, it would not be of much importance to large holders of stock. An unfavorable breadth signal indicates a loss of momentum and suggests that holdings should be lightened on strength. Our last unfavorable breadth signal was given in August of 1961, some five months before the market started b turn down. The averages reached new high territory after the signal and there was plenty of opportunity to sell on strength. In the present market, it is possible that the Industrial average may move somewhat higher to the 775-795 area, and the Rails to 185-190. However, if this does occur, the unfavorable breadth indications would suggest selling on strength rather than making new commitments on upside breakouts. Dow-Jones Ind 760.17 Dow-Jones Rails 178.19 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thh market letter b not. anl\ un!!c! no I' 10 he con …h tied n…. nn frel In cn nI 10 .,,,lllllatl,,n tn Inl ,Ill c(untle… IefCl1 e,1 ttl hCI Cln The inflllllltwn ,on\,l1nclI hClem I nul tn llc(lIlury O! nnd thc fUll\l .. Ih(,lenf I' 1101 .1n,llIllIlcl n(( to u…, ,on..,\luc,lll', n le)llc'(lllu IIn hy \\'nl'l\on & Co In, All (If (1\\1111011 111(' -.uhlc't t(l (h.III!.!C WltllPUt nliI((' \\',\i-.t(lll & ell, lilt, ,11((1 DllcctUis StO(kh()I,lel !l1l,1 thcrrof, IlU!(,ha'c. e!! nnr! mny flu'\c nn wlelct w the -.e(Ullt1CI rnenuc,1 helcw 'Chi tllUlf..('( IcH(1 I., lutcn,lc'if ,1Ild IIIC-,cII\(',I n I!CllCI,1I IlIrHltl\1I1 u,rnmentlilY (In !lilY to IIny nwrkcl IHIII n(lt WI n complete A,j,ht,nnl !!If, nmllOn '\llh 1('-.pc,1 III .un 'CrlU lCrCllCII to helcllI wI\l11' fill nl-.hcu ll,pon requell \\ '\ ,Ul

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 20, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 20, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - December 20, 1963
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Walston &Co. Memher,. ,\'en' l'Ol'k Stock Ecrcilange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFHCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 20, 1963 For some years now, we have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market to stage a year-end rally, and it has been the custom of this letter each December to pOint out some of the conclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. We have suggested that an exhaustive study of chart patterns since the Dow-Jones Indus- trial average was first computed in 1897 indicated that such a rally, however minuscule, had invariably taken place, This year it would seem highly probable that the rally began with the rise following President Kennedy's assassination in November,. The December — —- —low was, therefore, made on the very firs-t da-y of the – month at – 746.78 on —–;..- the Dow. A number of interesting facts about the market action at the year end may be noted, (1) As stated above, an identifiable year-end rally has taken place in every year since 1897. This rally has often been of great magnitude with advances as great as 280/. having been recorded. It has also, on occasion, continued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. However, on other occasions it has been of only a few days duration, reaching a top extremely early. In 1963 the rally continued to the end of February. In 1962 a high was reached on the very first day of the year. (2) There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up and late when it has been down. 1963 was an example of this. (3) The important thing to watch in connection with market action in the early Smonths of the year is the low for the previous December, been broken in 39 years out of the past 65 In 23 of these cases, it was b e \Q0tan ry and February, and since 1937 it has never been broken later than . Th if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2 1/2 m of th w year, chances become good that this low will not be broken. For 9 e December 1962 low of 636 88 was not approached after the a to out. The March 1963 low was In 1962 -n !eyos ond week-6fJanuary.- (4) In years when the been broken the subsequent trend has been downward two-thirds of f course, is a typical case. (5) The m . is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an adv f or more from the December lows has been followed by an upward or neutral mar of the 32 years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 1 rom the December low before an identifiable correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in 22 of 33 years. (6) The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is also important. For example, in 17 years the rally has continued into March or later. In 15 of these 17 years the eventual trend was upward, In 1963, of course, the rally carried to the end of February. The application of these statistics to the current year is obvious. As one would expect, the rally began early. However, as we have noted in previous letters, technical factors seem to indicate that the rna rket is in need of some correction in order to broaden the long term base pattern. If this is the case, our thinki.ng would be confirmed by seeing the present rally top out early in January after an advance of less than 100/0 from the December low.(Such an advance would take the Dow to around 821) It would also be logical to expect the December low of 746.78 to be broken early in the year If, on the other hand, the December low is not broken early and the rally continues on into March or reaches above 821, an extension of the upswing might be indicated, A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS 'ID ALL Dow-Jones Ind. 762.08 Dow-Jones Rails 177 . 35 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter s not. and under no circumstances s to be construed as. nn ofTer to 'ell 0\ n lIohcltntlOn tn huy any Aecm hies refel red to helel The information urcontained herem IS not j.Cuaranteed as to nccurucy or completene'ls and the (\ll'm,hlnll thereof 1-1 not. nnd IIndel no CJlClIffi!ltnn('cll II, to he ('unstl'ued as, n reprellenta- tlon by Walston & Co, Inc All expressions opmion are subject to ('hnn)!e wlthullt notice Wnbston & Co. Ine IlIU\ Offlcels, Dnccturs, Stockholders and thereof, purchase, sellnnd mny have an IntereAt In the mentum!,'l\ helcln ThiS market letter 1 intended anti lJrC!entcd merely ns a Ienerui, Informal commentary on riny to day market neW!! and not as a complete anniYbh Atldlttunni I1lfOlmntlOn th 1'''lle('t tu on), Ie('llllties lef('lled to herein WIll be … – furnished lIl)on request 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 27, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 27, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - December 27, 1963
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&Co.Walston Ine —– -, Memlel's Sell' rnll. Stnrk Exchange NEW YORK SAN fRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO CO….ST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 27, 1963 The forecasts fr business and industrial activity for the first half of 1964 are de- cidedly on the favorable side and most opinions are almost as unanimously certain about a continuation of the uptrend into the final half of the year. In the face of such universal op- timism, it is difficult to envision a contrary trend in the stock market. However, from a technical viewpoint, there are a number of factors that will bear watChing and that cast con- siderable doubt on the ability of the stock market to move ahead on a broad scale at this particular stage of the market pattern. Before going into the probable market trend for 1964, it might be advisable to re- oUI'-theughts-on the-longer We-feel period between 1957 and 1961 and a major bottom in the period between 1960 and 1962. This is difficult to envision in terms of the averages because the highs and lows in individual r issues were reached at different times. It will be noted that the two time periods mentioned above actually overlap. Standard Oil of New Jersey, for example, reached its high in 1957 at 68 and reacted 450/0 to 38 in 1960. This drastic correction occurred before IBM even reached its high. The high in IBM was reached in 1961 at 600 and was followed by a 500/0 de- cline to 300 in 1962 In 1962, Standard Oil of New Jersey held above its 1960 low despite the sharp drop in many stocks. If we move the various highs and lows of the thirty stocks in the Dow-Jones Indus- trial average together, we find that every stock has followed about the same Ilattern since the advance from the drastic undervaluation of 1949. The main differences are in the timing and the extent of the moves. Every stock in the average advanced from a 1946-1949 low to a 1957-1961 high. The average advance as If the 30 stocks in the Industrial average reached their 1957-1961 highs onas d y, t verage would have reached 911 instead of the 741 high reached in Novem ff;' 19 om the individual highs reached in the 1957-1961 period, each one thir oc -n the Dow-Jones Industrials suffered a drastic decline to reach a low som' betw 1960 and 1962. The average de- –Cline -was450/0. -a – -on- the same day, the DJI would low of 525 in June, 1962. Ther 't which is not much different-from the that the market reached a major top in 1957-1961, ba h' 1 correction that reached a major bottom in 1960- 1962 and that the ks ajor consolidating or reaccumulation area similar to 1946-1949. . While this pat rn' ot clear in the technical pattern of the various averages, it is clear in the pattern of eat number of individual issues. It is also much clearer if we re- align the various tops and bottoms of the 30 stocks in the DJI. On that basis the range from 1957 to 1963 was roughly 900 high and 500 low and the present price of 760 is not at a new high,but only halfway between the range of the past seven years. This applies not only to the 30 stocks in the DJI, but the vast majority of individual stocks The thought has been expressed in some quarters that the market still has to suffer a drastic decline in order to correct the 600-point advance from the 160 low of 1949. This contention is, in our opinion, without merit. The advance from the 1949 lows has already been corrected in each individual stock. What is now required in most cases is a further period of reaccumulation in order to broaden existing bases. The ultimate result, of course, will be an upside breakout and a much higher level of prices in the late 1960's… However, it is doubtful that a broad advance is in the cards in the immediate future. The market may work slightly higher in the early part of 1964, but breadth action and other technical indicators suggest an uncertain market in the first half of the year. Rather than being particularly concerned about such near term irregularity we would consider periods of weakness as buying opportunities. Weakness in 1964 will probably present the last opportu- nity to make advantageous purchases before the broad uptrend we expect in the late 1960's. A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL Dow-Jones Ind 762 95 Dow-Jones Rails 177 28 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket Jetter Is not. nod undel no clrcumstnnces 18 to be construed n;, an ofTel til sell 01 a soliCitatIOn ttl !.oil)' nny '('Lllrillc I etcrred to hel eln The mfOl millIOn contained herein IS not J!unranteetl /lS to accuracy or oompieteness und the fUl nLhlnj..( therlof nllt. nnd \llllleL no IS to he ('UlItllLCMI aI, n relll l10n by Walston & Co. Inc All expressiuns ,If opinIOn Inc to \\lth(Jut nntJ('c & Co. Inc, flllel Qlfll'el. DII ectol e, unn therf!Of, pUll'hase, sell nnd may hU\'e an interest In the securities mentwnecl helelll 'Chi! mOl ….et iettll is Intencl(!ti lind merely 11'1 n j..(eneTul. Inrormnl commentary on dny to day market news alld not nil D. complete Alhhtwilnilllfulmnlwn lth 1(IICe'! III nny ..c('ullhes Idetlc.1 to hCletn WIll he – u,pon request \\.\ 101 I J

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