Viewing Month: May 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 03, 1963 page 1
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– .l1(,111/(,I-' S('II' rill I. Stock E.rchall(l NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGElES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 3, 1963 Last July. this letter discussed the importance of relative strength during a de- clining phase of the ma rket. We sa id – At this stage of the market pattern, relative strength can be a very important tech ni.cal. tool. Relative strength is the price action of an individual stock as compared to the averages. For example, if the average declined 10 and an individual stock declined only 50/0, that stock is showmg above-average action or good relative strength despite the fact that it has declined. Conversely, if the average advanced 10, and an individual stock advanced only 50/0, the relative strength of the individual stock is poor. Another, and simpler, approac is to select the stocks or groups of stocks that have held above a previous low despite the fact that the average reached new low territory. For example, the Industrial aver age reached a low of 564.23 in October, 1960, and then advanced to 741. 30 in November of 1961. The recent decline has broken below the 1960 low to reach 524. 55. The individual stocks or groups of stocks that have held above their own 1960 lows have, therefore, shown above-average action and their relatLVe strength is good despite the fact that they have declined in price. There is usually a good fundamental reason for this price action. The fact that these issues are meeting better support than the rest of the market usually indicates a nsmg earnings trend or better prospects or both. More often than not, issues showing good relative strength during a declme become the leaders of the next advancing phase. We felt that the ability of a stock to hold above the 1960 low in the 1962 panicky declme was quite important technically. It implied tha t these stocks might be a stage ahead of the general market and might have already formed a period. Now, over nine months later, how has this tlJ;ry We have Just completed a compilation of the largest and actively traded issues on the New Exchange. As of this week, 105 of these the 1960-1962 0k 0 hat includes most of ange and American Stock der 110/0, have reached new all- time high It is interestmg held above thelr 1960 lows m the mar 0 ese stocks were those wh.ich cl &)0 62. Of the four tl1at(hd make new hlghs despite the fact that they U. S. Smelting, is a proxy fight situa- tion and another, Ameri efuical, is being taken over by another company. The other 101 comp i 1 0 e 1960 lows in 1962. This worke v n' vidual groups. In the airlines, for example, six issues held above the 196010 ad' broke below. Included in the six that held are Delta, Nation Northwest, Pan-America d Western. All five of these have reached new high territory since 1956. Included i e group that failed to hold above the 1960 low are American, East- ern and United. These have SO far showed below-average actin. It is also interesting to note that of the 105 new highs, 66 of the highs,or 630/0,were contributed by only nine industry groups. There were 15 utilities, 13 oils, 11 auto and equipment, 6 natural gas, 5 airlines, 5 railroads, 5 textiles, 3 aerospace am 3 sugars. The re- maining 39 new highs were spread over 31 different groups. There were 51 groups in which no new highs were reached. In a sizable number of groups, stocks that broke below the 1960 ows are predominant. For example, all 9 major cement issues broke below the 1960 lows. The electronics group shows a similar pattern. Of 28 lssues, only 5 held above the 1960 lows While other factors must, of course, be taken mto consideration, ability to hold above the 1960 low has;' so far, been an important factor in stock selection. A list of 523 .' issues that held above the 1960 lows will be m the hands of your Account Executive shortly. This study strengthens our conviction that, while the market is in a broad accumulation area that will eventually result m much higher levels over the longer-term, there are not enough stocks with strong technical patterns at the moment to indicate a new roaring bull market at this stage. There is probably no great vul nerability in the general market pattern, ut more time is needed to broaden the base patterns in many individual issues. Concentration should be on these individual patterns rather than the averages. 2 p. m. Dow-Jones Ind. – 719.67 2 p. m. Dow-Jones Rails – 164. 60 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. nWI ket Ictte! nol ,1111 untie no t,) he COI\tlllcd all lTel I ,,('II ,u tn 1,) .HI 'CCllI llle I efell ('.1 tu hCICIII The lntUllllllt.I)n 'untllned herein nut J,'lIlltantt'Ct\II to nCClIIlIC UI cmlllctcnc… nn.! the fUlllhhL11J,' theter … II' III1IUI1,II'1 n .'11 ((1I1,.,tllll ''' \-. \ he '''II\IIICfI a, 1\ 1'l'le,,('II\II. tHIn by \Vn1ston & Co, lnr 0\11 uf 1\11111011 nil' tl .h'll.e \\lthlIt 'JUlIn' & CIl, In( lind DlI,dn,' Rt.,khI,1,, ,I\l1 t,mp11v('!!'1 thcreof. ;clInllrl may h,,\c ,Ill Int'lct III the C,lIlltJC melli 11,,111(',111 Ih,,, mn'h('t i'tt. ,''' Intended 11\11 I'lc,,,nlcd me,ely II' ,I IH!!1cl,,1 Inform.1 rommentllly on dnv tu dllY mnrhe! news nlHI nut II a u,ml.lcle A1,I,I1I11,1I 111(1 m.,IIOn lth l'-'ICl'l I 1111\ '(,IIIIIIC'- lefCIIl'i1 tu hCICIIl \,ill he fUI rllheu uPUII \\ \ lUI A The following issues listed on both the New York Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange held within a point of their 1960 (in a few instances 1961) lows in 1962. This list does not pretend to be all inclusive but it probably contains the most important stocks on both exchanges. Abbott Labs ACF Industries Admiral Plastics Aerojet General Air Control Air Products A lco Products Aldens Allegheny Power Allen Industries Allied Chemical Allied Stores Alside, Inc. Amerace Corp. Amerada Petroleum Amer. Agric. Chern. American Bank Note Amer. Brake Shoe Amer. Can Amer. Chain Amer. Consumer Amer. Distilling Amer. Elec. Power Amer. Enka Amer. Hardware Amer. Hospital Supply Amer. Metal Climax Amer. Natural Gas. Amer. Optical Amer. Smelting Amer. Snuff Amer. So. African Amer. Standard Amer. Sugar Refining Amer. Tel & Tel American Tobacco American Viscose Amer. Water Works Ametek AMP Inc. Apollo Ind. . Archer Daniels Ariz. Pub. Service Armour & Co. Armstrong Rubber Arvin Ind. Ashland Oil Associated Dry Goods Associates Investment A tchison, Topeka & S. F. Atlantic City Electric. Atlantic Refining Aurora Plastics Austin Nic hols Avco Corp. Avis Industries Avnet Babbitt Babcock & Wilcox Baltimore & Ohio Bartons Candy Bayuk Cigar Beatrice Foods Beaunit Corp. Beech Nut Life Savers Belding Hem. Benefici3.1 Finance Bigelow Sanford Black & Decker Bliss, E. W. Bobbie Brooks Boeing Air Book-of-the- Month Borden Borg Warner Boston Edison Brach & Son Breeze Briggs & Stratton Bristol Myers Brooklyn Union Gas Brown Shoe Bucyrus Erie Buffalo Forge Bullard Bullocks Burlington Ind, Byers, A. M. Calgary & Edmonton Calif. Packing Campbell Red Lake Campbell Soup Canada Dry Canaveral Int'l Cap. C. Broadcast Carnation Co. Carrier Corp. Carrier & Gen. Caterpillar Tractor Celanese Cent. Ill. Light Chain Belt. Champlin Oil Chesebrough Chesapeake & Ohio Chicago, Milwaukee & St. Chicago, Rock Island Chock Full of Nuts Chrysler Cincinnat i Milling Cinerama CIT Financial Cities Service Cluett, Peabody Coca-Cola Colgate- Palmolive Collins & Aikman Colonial Corp. Colonial Sand Columbia Broadcasting Columbia Pictures Combustion Engineering Commercial Solvents Paul Congoleum – Nairn Consolidated Edison Consolidated Foods Consolidation Coal Consumers Power Continental Can Conthental Insurance Continental Motors Continental Oil Control Data Cooper Tire Copperweld Corn Products Coty, Inc. Creole Petroleum Crown Cork Crown Zellerbach Curtiss Wright Dana Corp. Dayton P & L Deere Delta Air Dentists Supply Denver Rio Grand De Soto Chem. Detroit Edison De VllblSS Diamond National DIsney Dr. Pepper Dome Mines Dome Petroleum Dominion Tar Draper Corp. Drilling & Exp. DuBois Chem. Duke Power Du Pont Duquesne Light. DuVal Sulphur DWG Cigar Dynamics Corp. Eastern Gas & F. Eaton Mfg. Elastic Stop Nut Electric Autolite Electric Bond & Share Electronic Spec. Emerson Electric Englehard Ind. Equitable Gas Ex-Cell-O B Factor, Max Fairmont Foods Falstaff Family Finance Fanny Farmer Federal Mogul Federated Dept. Strs. Helene Curtis Heller, Walter Helme Hershey Holly Sugar Holophane Home Oil Financial Federation Financial General Homestake Hoover Ball Bear First Charter Financial Houdaille Fischbach & Moore Fischer Port. Flying Tiger Food Giant Ford Motor Household Fin. Hudson Bay Mining Hunt Foods , Illinois Central Fram Corp. Inspiration Copper Friden, Inc. Insurance Co. of N. A. Fruehauf Trailer Inter. Business Machines Gabriel Inter, Harvester Gamble Skogmo Inter. Minerals & Chem. Gen. Amer. Oil Inter. Nickel General Cable Inter. Silver ) General Cigar Interstate Dept. Stores General Gas General Motors Jefferson Lake Sulphur Jewel Tea Gen. Public Vtil. Johnson & Johnson – General Steel Ind. Jonathan Logan General Tire Kansas City Southern Genesco Kawecki Chern. Gerber Kayser Roth Getty Oil Kellogg Giant Yellowknife Kendall Gibraltar Financial Kern County Land Gimbel Gould Nat. Batt. Grace, W. R. Granby Mining Great A & P. Great West Financial Great West Sugar Greyhound Grumman Gulf Mobile Gulf Oil Gulf States Util Gulf & Western Halliburton Hall Printing Hammermill Harris Intertype Harsco Kerr-McGee King Seely Klein, S. Klian, H. Koppers Co. Korvette, E. J. KVP Sutherland Lehn & Fink Libby McNeill Litton Ind. Lockheed Airc. Laews Theatres Lone Star Gas Long Island Lighting Louisville & Nashville Lucky Friday Louisiana Land Hart, Sch, & Marx Hayes Ind. Heinz, H. J. C Mack Truck Macy, R. H. Madison Fund Magnavox Magma Copper Mallory, P. R. Manning, Max Manhattan Shirt Marathon Oil Maremont Corp. Marine Midland Marshall Field Martin Marietta Masonite Massey- Ferg. May Dept. Strs. Maytag MCA Corp. McCord Corp. McCrory McDermott, J. Ray McDonnell Air McGraw Ed. McGregor, Don. McIntyre, Por. McKesson & Rob. McQuay Nor. !\lead Corp. Mergenthaler Lino Merritt Chap. Mesabi Trust MGM Middle South Util. Midland Ross Mission Corp. Mississippi River Fuel Missouri Pacific Mohasco Monarch Machine Monsanto Chemical Montgomery Ward Mueller Brass Munsingwear Murray Murray Ohio National Acme National Airlines National Biscuit National Can National Cash Reg. National Dairy National Gypsum National Linen National Rubber National Starch Na tional Video New England Tel. New Jersey Zinc Newport News Niagara Mohawk Norfolk & Western No. American Avia. No. American Car No Natural Gas Northwest Air Occidental Pete Oxford Paper Pacific Pacific Pete Pacific Tel. Paddington (A) Pan American Air Panhandle Eastern Parmalee Trans Peabody Coal Penick & Ford Penney, J. C. Pennsalt Chern. Penn. R. R. Peoples Gas Pet Milk Pfaudler Perm. Pfizer Phelps Dodge Rtiladelphia &. Read. Phillip Morris Phillips Pete Phillips Van H. Pillsbury Pitney Bowes Pittston Proctor & Gamble Puerto Rican Tel. Pure Oil Pyle National Quaker Oats Ralston Rayette Rayonier Reed Roller Republic Aviation Revlon Reynolds Tobacco Riegel Paper Rockwell Standard Rohr Ronson Royal Crown Cola Royal Dutch Royalite Oil Safeway Stores St. Louis S. F. SanDiego Imperial Schlumberger Scott Paper Scovill Mfg. Seaboard Air. Seagrave Sears, Roebuck Shamrock 011 Shell Trans. Signal Oil Simonds Saw Singer Mfg. Skelly Oil Smith, Douglas Smith, Kline & F. Socony Mobil Soss Mfg. Southern Cal. Ed. So. Puerto R. Sugar Southern Pacific Southern Nat. Gas Southern Railway Square D. Standard Brands Standard Financial Standard Kollsman Standard Oil of Calif. Standard Oil of Indiana Standard Oil of) N. J. Sterling Drug Stevens, J. P. Stewart Warner Stokely, Van Camp Storer Broad. Sub. Gas Sub. Prop. Gas Sundstrand Sunray DX Sunshine Bisc. Sweets Co. of Amer. Symington Wayne Syntex Talcott, James. Talon (A) Tech. Matei'ial Tech. Operations Texaco Texas East. Trans. Texas Gas Trans. Texas Gulf Prod. Texas Pacific Coal Texas Utilities Textron Thew Shovel Timken Roller Tishman Realty Torrington Tractor Supply Trane Transamerica Trans. West. Fin. Tri – Continental Udylite Union Bag Camp Union Electric Union Oil of Calif. Union Pacific Union Twist Drill United Aircraft United Artist United Biscuit United Fruit United M & M U. S. Freight U. S. Industries U. S. Lines U. S. Plywood U. S. Smelting U. S. Tobacco Universal Amer. Universal Leaf D Universal Oil Prod. Van Raalte Virginia Caro. Virginia Elec. Von's Grocery Vulcan Material Walker Hiram Wallace & Tiern. Warner Lambert Western Airlines Western Pacific Westinghouse Air Whirlpool Wickes Corp. Wilcox Oil Williams Bros. Winn-Dixie Wrigley, Wm. Xerox Zenith. …. ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1963
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– J1cmlerN XCIl' ln/I. Sinck E.1'Ca1lqe Fit NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERseAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 10, 1963 The market continues the advance from the October low, and at Thursday's intra-day high of 726.48, the Dow-Jones Industrial average was fast approaching the November, 1961 high of 741. 30. Despite the steepness of the advance, our breadth index is moving along with the market averages into new high territory. Until there is a deviation between these two indices, nothing more than technical corrections are to be expected. Most of the leaders of the advance from the October lows were issues in the Oils, Utilities, Auto Equipment, Natural Gas. Textiles, Airlines and Railroads. These seven groups accounted for 60 of the 105 new highs mentioned in last week's letter. All of these groups were among those which held above the 1960 lows in the 1962 decline. However, they have all had sharp advances and may be in need of some temporary consolidation. There are a fair number of other groups that showed good relative strength action in the 1962 decline and have not, as yet, advanced sharply. Included in this classification are the Machine Tools. One obvious reason for the technical action of the industry is the large potential demand for machine tools. As Business Week magazine noted this week, more U. S. machine tools are overage then at any time since the 1930 'so The United States average, 640/0, is appreciably higher than Western Europe or the Soviet Union. Six stocks in the group held above their 1960 lows in 1962. They are Cincinnati Milling (47), Excello (40), National Acme (67), Sundstrand (25), Union Twist Drill (29) and United Greenfield (22). Of these six issues, Excello is already part of our recommended list. Machine tools account for only 230/0 of total sales, but the dairy 250/0 sales ,can be an important factor in earnings. Within the next few man , sian to plastic – coated containers will be completed. 1962 . a S e and, despite lower earnings for the quarter ended February, (70 as t ) earnings should be J around the 3.20 level for 1963. The stock We believe Sgndstrand Corp. r rre'nlr1 g 1. 60 annually to yield 10/0. cti ong term capital appreciation pot- ential, and it is being added to our r d l' . ,Like 'Excello, machine -tools are a minor part of the productioniaKA i part oLsaJes Sundstrand .sal a -,\\gWmissile components furnish the larger tools and hydrostatic transmissicms . This divislOn could b a t nt or in long term growth. Earnings for 1962 yrtalled 2.20 and the cu . d provides a 40/0 yield. The stock sold as high as 38 in 1959 and has held in 8- ange for the past three years. An eventual upside penetratirn of this trading area wo esult in a very favorable technical pattern. Earnings for the first half of 1963 are expected to be a shade below last year but should pick-up in the final half. The stock appears to be an attractive long term commitment. Two issues in our recommended list have reached their upside objectives and are bein removed for the time being. Columbia Pictures (29) has reached its upside potential. The stock was originally recommended at 20 3/8 after allowing for stock dividends. In addition, if rights to buy Screen Gems at 9 were used, each 100 shares of Columbia Pictures owns 20 shares of Screen Gems now selling at 25. Louisiana Land 87) has reached its 85-90 objective. The stock was originally recommended at 50 1/2. One of the issues on our low-priced speculative list, Pacific Petroleum 13 3/4) was quite active on Friday and closed up 1 3/8 points. This issue has been on our recommended list for a long time and has done little marketwise. However, we consider it an excellent holding for long term capital appreciation. The stock sold as high as 38 in the 1957 Canadian oil and gas boom. It has held in the 17-18 range since 1960. It is one of the favored issues that held above its 1960 low in 1962. Retention is advised. Reynolds Metals (34) also showed favorable technical action last week by breaking out on the upside of the 31- 21 area in whlh it has held for over a year. Dow-Jones Ind. 723.30 Dow-Jones Rails 164.60 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO., INC. ,nrtllThiS market. letu.r IS not. nnf! under J1() elrcum6tancel to he ('on..tl lied II'. nn (lfTC! til ..ell 01 I' bultcllutwn til huy 1111) '-celli \tIe.. I cfCII('.ll IH'I CIII The malltln contained herem IS not J!tlfll antcetl lI'I to ncelll Hey 01 ('umpietenc-.s lIno the rut nb,hlll)! hel etl( 1-. nt. nnrl ull.ll'l 11) -II tu ),e t Ihtl ued 'I I tlOn by Wnlston & Co. InC' All e(llre;slum, uf llllinlOn ale .,ubJeet to C'h,1I1)!C wlthlIt Iwtue So. en. InC', nntl OffHt'I … Dllctttll!, I1IHI lherCQf. IIUlchn;c, scll und mu) hnvc un mtCl(';t In the ,.'LIII itlt' ment'Tlct\ h(,ICIII mnl,ct eHel ' lIltcn,letl 111111 111 c–cnt('t\ .1 n j!enel.l1. wformnJ comme.ntlllY on dny to 'lny IllllTk(.'i new nnd nut nil n ('t)Ill)Icte A,hhtJJ1JIJ illfmllllltJon ,,, IHI)' lu herem WIll lie Curmllhed Ullon request ' 'lll

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1963
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Walston &Co. Xell' YOI'I.. Sioc/, Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 17, 1963 The following is a summary of a talk by the writer to the 16th Annual Convention of the Financial Analysts Federation held at the Palmer House, Chicago on May 15th. The stock market, as measured by the averages, is very near an all-time high,However from a technical viewpoint, there is very little resemblance between the technical of eighteen months ago and the pattern today. In November. 1961, the market was in an extremely vulnerable technical position.Market action had been deteriorating since the Spring of 1961. Breadth reached its high in April and failed to follow the averages into new high 'territory in August. By the time the Dow reached its high in November. the breadth index arid-most' other'technical iriaicators were in-a- – decidedly unfavorable position. By early 1962, a broad potential distributional top had been for–med in the averages, and in many individual stocks. The subsequent decline in May-June was the sharpest in 25 years. The Dow-Jones Indu trials declined 29 from the 1961 high,but the average decline for all New York stock E)(Cha common stocks was approximately 470/0. The good stocks declined with the bad and it was one of the few instances in recent years when it was worthwhile to licpidate entire portfolios in order to buy back at substantially lower levels. This drastic correction was confined to the stock market itself and had little effect on the general business picture. The Cuban crisis brought the market back to near the May-June lows and completed a six-month potential base pattern in the broad 525-625 area. The upside penetration of this area inNovember and the favorable the present advance. After a 200 -point advance to near the level fr0Iehih t e vulnerable is the market at the moment The Dow i 9 indices indicated 0 detrune started, how approximately 19 times earnings and at about 18-17 times possible f 12. This is high but erably below the 24 ratio of 1961. \\ \\.) ,T.he .leadership .in,the present advance has.been.go(td. e-T.heIeaders.have beenimr.estm entl issues that are an important been institutional and Ion -ter . llYerages. The buyers of these issues have The public has been slow in coming- back to the market. T e a ers who were badly burnt in the 1962 decline are conspicuous by th' a . ' – Technically, th e s s little vulnerability although some warning signals are beginning to appear. Our bath index is mOving ahead with the averages and there is, as yet, no sign of deviati his index usually gives a warning signal long before the averages reach their ultimate hlgh. Furthermore, no important distributional tops have been formed in the averages or in individual stocks. However, there is, in our opinion, a distinct possibility that the present advance is nea ing at least a temporary top. The reason is that the majority of individual stocks have not yet built up sufficient base patterns to indicate levels much above the present market. Most individual stocks fall into one of two patterns. In the first group are the issues that held above the 1960 lows in the 1962 decline. This simply means that these stocks have been in the process of forming a base for two or more years. These bases indicate long-term price levels, considerably above present prices. However, approximately two-thirds of all listed issues declined below the 1960 lows in the 1962 decline. The potential base patterns formed since May-June'are only of a yeats- duration. The upside potentials of these bases have already been reached in a number of cases. From a technical viewpoint, it would appear that some time will be needed to broade the bases and indicate new high territory. With the majority of issues needing further consolidation, it would not appear that a roaring bull market is immediately in the offing. Rather we would expect a continuation of a broad tramg area with the action of individual stocks more important than the general market. When the pattern is eventually completed we would expect a decisive upside pene- tration of the 1961 highs and substantially higher market levels. Dow-Jones Ind. 724.81 Dow-Jones Rails 167.88 EDMUND W. TABELL WJLSTON & CO. ,rnc. Thill mnrket letter IS not, and under no Clrcumstnnces IS to he lied liS, nn OffCI tn …ell 01 j\ bohellotlOli ttl Iouy lIny beclIlltics Idel retl t hel eln The inf' mntum cntained herein is not guaranteed as to UUI tlcy Ot and the fill nIhlnl! thereuf 1 flul, und Untlci lin ell 11 tu he l'UIHt1 lied nl, n rCIlll.lentn tlOn by Walston 8 Co, Inl' All eltpreS81Onl tlf OPInion are .,uhJel't tu ('h.lnl!e \\Ithtlul nullce WnJ..ton & Cu., Inc.. an.1 Offleeu, Dlrecttlrs, Stu..)hulder,., IIlul l-mployees thereof, pUlchnse, sell end mny have nn Intel est In the helelli. mflrCl leuel II Ifltendoe, and I'recntcd merely U-I II j.(enelnl beInformul commentary on doy to day market news and nut u'! n eomplete unnl'''I Addltltlnnll1lfulnlntlun …. Ith to lin)' Icfelled to heleln will upon request \\. ,01

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 24, 1963
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W—a-lsItnocn.&–C-o-. Memhel. ,ve/(' York Siock Exchange FILE CfJ)PV NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFIces COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 24th, 1963 For the first time in twelve weeks, or since early March, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed lower on the week. Friday's closing level of 720.53 compares with the May 17th close of 724.81. The rise from the March intra-day low of 656.66 to this week's high of 728.76 has been an almost straight line advance. Normal technical action would call for a correction somewhere along the way. A normal one-third to one-half correction of the seventy-two points rise of the last twelve weeks would bring the Dow-Jones back to the 704-692 level. A small potential top around the 725 level indicates a possible dip to 695. The February high was 694. 27. At this stage of the market pattern, -the price action of individual stocks is much more important than that of the averages, and this will continue to be true for a long time to come. It is our opinion that the market reached a major top in November, 1961 and a major bottom in June a year ago. It is now in a broad reaccumulation range that will eventually result in much higher levels. However, more time is probably needed to complete the pattern. One-third of the market held above its 1960 low in last year's decline and this group is already in a major advance with still higher levels ahead. As noted in recent letters, the issues that fall into this category have been the leaders of the advance. Their own private bear market ended tn 1960, not 1962, and these issues are a year or two ahead of the balance of the market. They will, of course, require resting periods and are prob- ably in the midst of such a consolidating phase at the moment. Most of the market strength in the past month has in situations. while the leaders of the advance from the Cuban crisis lows have b n . eack and forth in a relatively narrow area. In the meantime, many in'n w irds of the list are slowly completing constructive patterns. Stewart i e pIe. It rallied moder- ately from its June low around 23 to a high of 30 an sf! most of the last of 1962 diverse action can be with rotating leadership following each technical deCline'iih'em s ; t remember is that the market is, in our opinion, in a broad reaccu ul i n d ce weakness should be welcomed as an opportunity to add to holdings 1 e . tions. In our last reco e d 1St, we suggested the sale of Chrysler at the 120 level. This objective was reached week on the split stock at 60. This issue was recommended a year ago during the y-June decline at the equivalent of 25-20 in the present stock. Chrysler has considerable long-term promise but has reached the intermediate term obj- ective on our technical work and probably needs a consolidating period. It is removed from the recommended list for the time being. Other issues in our list are approaching selling levels and, when sold, should be replaced with other issues with favorable patterns. The following issues fall into this cate- gory. We would prefer buying on moderate price declines. CLOSE QUALITY YIELD Copper Range Denver Rio-Grande Disney, Walt Kansas City Southern Pittston Co. Stewart Warner Storer Broadcasting United Fruit 22 3/4 22 3/8 35 1/4 451/4 67 1/4 35 1/2 41 28 7/8 B.B B A- B B B B 4.5 1.1 4.4 2.4 4.2 4.4 2. 1 Dow-Jones Ind. 720. 53 Dow-Jones Rails 170.93 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. , INC. This mnrket letter 16 not. and under no cu'cumBtances 18 to be construed BS. an offer to sell or n Boll(,'ltntion tn buy any sec\lrities referred 'to herem The infurmation cont.luned herem Is not j!\IRtantccd as to accuracy or completeness and the (urnu,hlng thel cor not, and untie! no ell cumo;tnnces is to be cum.h ued 8S. n. represent. tlon by Walston Co, Inc All expre'SlOnR of opinIOn are subject to chanJ.!e without not lee Walston Co. Inc. unit OfficcIII. Dhecttlls. Stockholders ann thereof, purchase. sell and may have an Interest In the secUrities mentluneri heteln ThiS market letter IS mtended and proented merely as a Iteneral. mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analysis. At.llhtlOnul illtol matlOn \\Ith tellect til nny seO-lHlties refellet1 to 'herem will be furnished upon request ,\ 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - May 31, 1963
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Walston &- Co. Inc Selt 1'ol'k Siork Exchange -; . NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 31, 1963 The marketrquicklyrreversed its minor sell-off of last week and on Friday reached new high territory for the move at the intra-day high of 730.43. The Dow-Jones Industrial average has now closed higher on twelve of the past thirteen weekS,and our breadth index has kept pac!'!. Despite the steep advance in the averages, the market has been extremely selective; and a considerable number of issues have had relatively poor appreciation. In the main, the leaders of the advance have been in the type of stocks mentioned in our letter of May 3rd. These are the issues that held above their 1960 lows in the 1962 debacle. Most of the airlines autos, natural.gas, oils.rails,sugars, textiles and,utilities,fall into,this-category. ,It.is,i;n.l., these groups where most of the newall-time highs will be found. Very few new highs have been made in the groups where the majority of issues broke below the 1960 lows in 1962. In this category are aluminum, amusement, building, cement, chemicals, electronics, glass, meat packing, office equipment, photo, publishing, radio and TV, rubbers, steel and variety stores. From a technical viewpoint, the issues in the first category have had three years in which to build base patterns and are, therefore, considerably ahead of the stocks that had a – maximum of a year to build up base patterns from the 1962 lows of either May-June or October. These many diverse technical patterns are bound to result in a market in which indi- vidual selection will be of extreme importance. Possibly a third of the total number of listed' . stocks fall into the first category. The oils, for example, ing up base patterns for a very long time period. In some a e , the process of buildsa t of the patterns goes all the way back to the 1957 These t e appear to be com- pleted and indicate substantially higher levels over tfi ger e ,There will, of course, be' periods of technical correction and but . gr appears to be a buy on minor corrections. The rails fall into much the sam a ough the pattern here is more that-held'above t m r1 a – ostly to be-fourid-in the betterquality Western and Southern roads. e oils, have been in a basing out pattern since 1957 and indicate substan r 1 i er subject to minor corrective action. As time goes 0, of the listed stock '1 1 I 0 ly take quite some time, the remaining two-thirds lete base patterns. The aluminums, for example, reached new low ter' r in 1 ,but have succeeded in building up fairly substantial base. ew highs are yet indicated and the patterns are probably not complete, but the gro slowly entering the favorable long term category. Other groups still indicate the need of considerable time before the patterns are completed, and other group indicate the possibility of new lows before a base pattern is even started. With such a multiplicity of diverse patterns, it is rather futile to pay much attention to the action of the various averages. The Dow-Jones Industrial average is near the all-time high of 1961, but this average is heavily weighted with the good quality blue chip many of which held above the 1960 lows in 1962. A new high would not indicate the start of new bull market encompassing the great majority of all issues. Most stocks need more time to complete the patterns. We continue to advise a policy of attempting to take advantage of the diverse patterns and to sell when objectives are replacing with !!!at !!n uptrend. Collins & Aikman (41) reached its objective of 40, mentioned in our last recommen- ded list review, and is temporarily removed from the list. We are also removing Allied Chemical (50), American Optical (70), Continental Insurance (59) and North American Aviatio (58). Four of these issues show a profit and one (Continental Insurance), a small loss from originally recommended levels. The average gain of all five is 33 as compared with a 22/0 gain in the Dow -Jones Industrials during the same time period. As replacements, we suggest the issues mentioned in our last three letters. A new recommended list will be issued next week and can be obtained from your Account Executive. Dow-Jones Ind. 7'26.96 Dow-Jones Rails 173. 38 Y' – EDMUND w. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter IS not. and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as. an offer to sell III n soliCitation to bllY nny !';ecurllies retel red 'to herein The In!nrmatJon r.mtnlTl('d herem IS not guaranteed a .. to UCCIlI acy or completeness and the fUl nlshJnIl thelwf 1-. not. lind untlel no CllCUmbtllnN!S 11 to be ('Om,tllled Rb. R rCI)le..cntll tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc All exnreSSlonB uf opInion are to chnnJ.'e wllhnut IwtJ('C. Wah,ton & en. Inc, flnd OffICNIl. DlIeetOls, Sto('khtltders and Employees thcrcor. pUlchase, sell and may have an Intclcst in the scrllrllle'l mcntlllncl\ hClcln Thl' malkct lettcr IS mtended und preented merely as a J,enerfll. mrormal commentary on day to day market news and not us a cumplete Adtlitltlnlllilifulmntion with 1('Sllect tu IIny sc'ulitleo; Iderled to helem Will be !urmshed upon request \\-.. JOl —.

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