Viewing Year: 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 08, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 08, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - March 08, 1963 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - March 08, 1963 page 2
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– FILE COPV MrmhelS XrlC 1'Ol'k Siock Echallge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVER.SEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER .. Fort Myers Beach, Florida March 8, 1963 The past month has been a very pleasant one as far as the writer is concerned. The early part of the month was spent on a tour of some of the Walston offices in Southern California, Arizona and Texas, and the later part in Antigua and in Florida. As a result, I have been more or less away from the day to day developments in the stock market since early February. This, on occasion, is a very sound procedure. It gives one an opportunity to ignore the often confusing nearer term action and to concentrate on the longer term picture. As I look at the technical pattern from the longer-term viewpoint, there is very little of irrfportance tnaChas month.- year;- tm.fietter— said that 1963 would be an inside year. By that we meant that the Dow-Jones Industrial average would not reach a new high above the 1961 high of 741, or reach a new low below the 1962 low of 525. Probably the range will be even narrower than that and the average will not move much above 700, or much below 600. This is part of the long-term pattern that was en- visioned as far back as 1959, when this letter said that the market would probably reach a high in 1961 at around the 750 level, and then react to the 550-525 level, to be followed by a lengthy trading range between these two extremes for several years. We find no reason to change this fo recast. – Contrary to general opinion, the market is not always moving either up or down.' It actually spends most of its time in sidewise movements This is normal action as price movements usually go to extremes – – both on the upside and long period O.f consolidation are ne.eded to adjust to a new set of conditi s. r there have flve lengthy consolidatmg penods before the market e1 rntory. In May, the Dow-Jones Industnal average reached a post-waNrli of was not until April of 1950, or forty-seven months later, that this was er After a high of 295 in Januar 1953, the market had a comparatively mild c On t o u t 250, but it was fourteen – , ril-of-1956;-trre–avera.-ges and it was not until monihs later, that a new high was reach- ed. The August 1959 high of 68 0 until twenty-one months later in March, 1961. The all-time hi h t D -Jones Industnal average was made in November 1961, or approxim 1 . t n n ago. Considering the fact that the first phase of the long-term bull mark r le 9 low probably ended in 1962, and that the correction fran 741 to 525 was the sha es cline (290/0) smce 1937, it would appear that the ensuing consoli dating period or tradin nge mlght take two to four years. In other words, it may not be until somewhere between October 1963 and October 1965 that a new high is reached. Recently, we have noted some comments comparing the present market action with that of a year ago just before the April-June 200-pomt decline to 525. Outside of the fact that the present market has lost some of ItS upside momentum after the sharp 140-point rise since October, there is no technical resemblance to the market of a year ago. In March of 1962, the breadth indices had been showing unfavorable action for ten months, and a sizable distributlOnal top had been formed with a dQwnside potentialofasizable decline. Today, the breadth index has been fluctuating with the market and there has been no sign as yet of deviation. Furthermore, neither the average, nor most indlvidual stocks, have formed dan- gerous top patterns. Last year, the market was close to a downside brea-lCoilt of a ten-montif– distnbutlOnal top. Today, the market is in the process, in our opinion, of forming a very important long-term reaccumulation base that will probably require a longer penod of time to complete. In late 1961, and early 1962, our advice was to sell On strength Today, our advice is to forget about the averages and buy selected issues during periods of pnce weak- ness In 1963. – Dow-Jones Ind. 672.43 Dow-Jones Rails 151. 04 EDMUND W, TABELL WALSTON &. CO, INC. 11,- ,11 I ,'1 Ie'! ,… nl 111.1 undt II, It, 111\ .. 1.. I., 10(' '''11 .. 1,11(',1 ,-. .11 IT1 ( ..,11 (II I ..I,. .11, I 111\ ,Il' ..,', ' II H 'f, , d I JII' ,',11 '11l( Jnf,., ' '\1 ,,,1,,,,,, .'''. ,, t '''11',1 h, ,r,1I Ilt !.!II It 01 H' 111 ,,( \ ,,' ''''''1,1, Il1d Ih, fUI i.,hH' 11,,'11( I .,wl 1I,h', nhl '111' l' I Ill' 1('I ,….'1.1- 11 hI (,' I, ,\11 \1'1'…… '''11'' lr PIII'''n I IIIo,L 'h''' ,1111'111 I \\ ,1,1n ,\ (,' 1, ,,,01 (lllllI 11,,,,, '1,1,1,111 ,I tI,,,I nl'l,,1 1', , 111(',f, 1'111' h (', ell IIll,IV 1,,,1, .I ,nl,,,\ III 1111'10111 ,d JII' II 'll II 1,,'1 1,'1\, ' ,hIOI,1 ,nil 1'1''''',,1,,01 m,,,'11 h ,\ C.IHI tI to,11 r, ,,,/ '''Irlrt)('lrLII \ ,/,(\ /II,!! /..1 I \\' II,) ' I, omplel' '1I1h .., ,\,),111 '''U ,\ 11,1'11 /1,0/1 ,III /,,'11 I Inl ,11,11. It f, 1'\ I.. h,It'11I , I,, ,,– .. -j' , The groups are as follows Early Peak stocks Allied Chemical Alum. Co. of Amer. Anaconda Chrysler International Paper Middle Peak Stocks Bethlehem Steel Du Pont Eastman Kodak General Electric General Motors Late Peak Stocks American Can American Tel & Tel American Tobacco General Foods International Harvester 1960 Low Stocks American Tel & Tel American Can Chrysler Du Pont General Motors Weak Stocks American Tel & Tel Anaconda Bethlehem Steel General Foods Goodyear Tire Standard Oil of California Standard Oil of New Jersey Swift & Co. Union Carbide United Aircraft – Goodyear Tire Owens Illinois Glass Texaco, Inc. U. S. Steel Westinghouse Electric International Nickel Johns Manville Procter & Gamble Sears Roebuck Woolworth International Harvester Standard Oil of California Standard Oil of New Jersey Texaco, Inc. United Aircraft International Paper Johns Manville Owens lllinois Glass Procter & Gamble U. S. Steel

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 15, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 15, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - March 15, 1963
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Melll/,el'. Sell' York Siock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET1ETTER—-.—- March 15, 1963 Most investors are fairly familiar with the fluctuations of the market as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. It sounds ridiculous, therefore, to say that the actual all- time high for the Dow was 877.63, and that the subsequent low was 469.38. Yet, in a sense, both statements are true. It also seems ridiculous to say that the Average was over 1000 in 1961, that it was under 400 in 1962, or that it went down steadily from 1956 to 1961. Yet, these statements are also true of substantial segments of the average. ' Let us take the statement made in the first paragraph. Individual stocks in theAver- age reached highs as early as 1955 and turned down again. If the absolute high for the 1955- 1961-period'in'each stock-is taken; the high ii-dhe Average many' stocks made lows in 1960. If the low on each individual stock for the 1960-62 period is taken the Dow corrected to 469. 38 rather than 525. These two figures give some idea of the real magnitude of the correction that took place in the 1956-62 period. This points up the fact that the Dow is, after all, only a conglomerate of individual stocks, all of which behave differently. For example, it is possible to divide the Average into three groups of ten stocks each. In the table below, we have taken a group of ten stocks that made their peaks in 1955-57 and taken an average of these stocks, adjusting the divisor to produce 524.37, the actual 1956 high in the Dow, at the 1955-57 peak for each individual stock. The table shows that, as the Dow moved ahead, these ten stocks were actually under- going a fairly sharp correction. . 1955-57-High 1959-60- Ten Early-Peak Stocks 524. 37 4B5. 6 Actual DJA 524.37 (iftS8.2 In the following table we have utilized the n stocks which reached their highs in 1959 and 1960. It will be seen that re d a high surprisingly close to the ultimate Dow-Jones high some two erage itself reached that figure. Ten Middle-Peak'Stocks Actual DJA The pat 0 h J1J 688 21 741. 30 i' e ernge was caused largely by ten stocks which reached their peaks a . A , these ten stocks out-performed the Dow in the later phases of the r a ctually reached a level over 1000. -57 – Hi h 1959-60 – High 1961 – High Ten Late-Peak Stocks 524.37 683.20 1019.96 Actual DJA 524.37 688.21 741.30 Much the same sort of action is being shown tOday. For example, let us take ten stocks in'the Average, nine of which made their lows in 1960 rather than 1962 and compare them at recent turning points. As can be seen, these declined somewhat less than the Dow in 1962 and are currently selling at levels above their high, 1961 .. High 1962 – Lows Current Ten 1960-Low Stocks 741.30 564.46 780.00 ctual DJA 741.30 524.55 673. 73 On the other hand, the ten weakest stocks in the Average lost almost half their value 'n the 1961-62 break and, to date, have recovered less than a third of their over-all loss. 1961 – High 1962 – Low Current en Weak Stocks ctual,DJA 741.30 741. 30 393.20 524.55 490.89 673.73 The purpose of this exercise is only to show once again that any statistic, no matter how well constructed, can be misleading. The market, as this letter has repeatedly pointed out, is now in the process of forming a broad long-term base for a major advance which will egin at some future date unknown. Of i800 individual stocks listed on both Exchanges, each one is in a different cyclical stage. It is a time, in short, when close fundamental and tech- nical scrutiny of individual issues will be the most important key to investment success. The averages, as shown above, can be highly confusing. Dow-Jones Ind. 676. 33 ANTHONY W. TABELL – -III Dow-Jones Rails 151. 71 WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not, nnd under no Circumstances IS to be construed 8B, an to sel1;)1 n solicitatIOn to buy nny !'.CCUI .he., refe) re,llo hel em. The m(C) matmn ('ontained herem is not I!uarantccd nil to accuracy or completeness nnd the furnlshllll-! thel eof IS not, nnd unde! (10 cliclImbtn(lCeS to be cnnbtl ued n tlon by \\'olston & Co. Inc All expreSSIUn'! (If optnlOn ore suhJeet to chnnJ.!e wrthllut nutlce, Wnl..ton & (AI, InC'. arul Offlcel .., Du'ccturs. Stockholderll and Fmpioyees thereof purchn'!e lIell lind may have an Interest In the seCUrltleti mentlnne,\ heleln fhls market letter 18 Intended lind Ilrcent((1 merely nil (l on IIn)-' to dn)- market news olld not as a complete Iln(l\Yh Achhtmnnl rnfUlmnhon Ith 1t'llel't tu Imy '1CClllltics rcfCllel1 to hcrcin Will be furnrshcd upon request \\, 101

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - March 22, 1963
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W—-a–l-s-tIonnc–&–C—o-. Member.. Xell' Yor'. Stock Euilange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILAOELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND ovEttSE.4.S TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 22, 1963 Last week's market was, essentially, trendless with a late rally on Wednesday being the only feature to mark an otherwise dull week. 'The averages were just able to hold Wednesday's gains, however, and the week's close of 677. 83 in the Dow-Jones Industrials was little different from the previous week's final figure of 676.33. The technical position of the market remains, in essence, unchanged, with some loss of momentum continuing to show up on breadth and volume in d ice s, although no serious deterioration has yet taken place. Heavy overhead supply, of course, continues to exist in the 680 -700 area, but, on the other hand, downside risk at the moment appears limited. As regular readers of this letter are a ware, we havelong t;;;; interested in the seasonal phenomenon of the year -end rally. We have studied this rally in every year since the Dow-Jones Industrial average was first computed in 1897 and have previously noted that an exhaustive study of chart patterns over the past 65 years indicates that such a rally, how- ever minuscule, has invariably taken place. T'fIis rally has consistently started in December and continued after the first of the year. 1962-63 has been no exception to the phenomenon, with a rally having started from the December 19th low of 636.88 in the Dow-Jones Indus- trials and having, to date, reached a peak at 694.27 on February 18th. ' A good many clients, familiar with our work on the subject, have asked us what apparent continuation of this rally into the end of March means. In this connection, a few comments are worthy of note. As we have said before, one of the most in connection with market action in the early months of the year is)ge 1 fo ,Wpr ious December – in this case 636.88 in the Dow-Jones Industrials or an & Poor's 500-Stock Index. As we have noted in previous letters, this bee oken in 39 years of the pas 64. In 23 of these 39 cases, it was broken uary. Most of the 16 cases where it was broken after the end of Since 1937, it hasnever-be-en -w;c r the early part of the century. ri arcn, and -slncel-929; never later than May. March is almost past course, the Dow is no where near the De- cember low figure. The nger e rKe c continue into 1963 without the December low being penetrated, the g teGl\El s erefore, that it will not be penetrated during the year. There rema! r, one important question to be resolved. That is, just how far the rally can be sai ave continued. As noted above, a high of 694. 27 was reached on February 18th. This not been penetrated. a rally of exactly 9/0 from the December low. To date that high has The importance of this question is indicated by the following statistics In 47 out of 64 years under study, the year-end rally has topped out in January or February. In 28 of these 47 years, the subsequent trend of the market has been down or neutral. On the other hand, the rally has continued beyond February in 17 years. In 15 of these 17 years, the trend of the market has been upward. Furthermore, an advance of 10/0 or more from the De cember lows has been followed by a dqwnward market only 5 times in the 31 years that such an advance has occurred. In the 33 years that the average has failed to advance 10/0 from the December lows before an identifiable correction took place, a downward or neutral market has occurred 22 times. Thus, at the moment, the February 18th high of 694. 27 becomes a figure of special interest. A substantial penetration of this high could well lead to the that the rally since the beginning of the year has been continuous. An advance much above it would produce a rise of 10, which has been followed by an upward market in 26 cases out of 31. It will also mean that the rally continued into March or beyond, which has produced an upward market in 15 cases out of 17. On the other hand, protracted failure of the averages to make a new high or a penetration of the March 1st low of 656.55, would indicate that the rally had indeed ended in mid-February. Such circumstances have generally tended to pro- duce a downward or neutral trend for the remainder of the year. Dow-Jones Ind. 677.83 Dow-Jones Rails 151.58 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This mnrket letter III not. nnd under no 19 to be consh \led ml, nn offer to 01 n snlicltntlUll ttl huy nny SecUlllLCb rde-ned ttl herein The Inrnrmnhon Cllntnlncrl herem III not J!lInrantccti all to nCClirncy 01 cOI'lllietcnc'ls nnd the rUI nlShln!! thel cur .s nut. anll Ilndcl nn CII 18 to be n repi tHin by Walston & Co. Inc Ali e'(pressions of OPinion are SUblCt't to chnll).!e \\Ith!,ut notice Wnlbil)n & Co. Inc. nnl Officen-.. DlIectms. anrl Employees thereof, punhnse. selland may have an mtcrest III the securltleo, mcntlne!1 hClcin 'fhl nlalket letter lb Intended nnd I\rcen\ed merely n n ).!cneral. informnl commentnry on day to day market news and not ns n comilletc AlldlhIIUI infolnlotl(,n \11th lCllcrt t4l1lnY bC(,1llltlC8 Idelle!lto beleln Will he upon request \\ '\ 3()1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - March 29, 1963
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W—-a–l-s-tionnc–&—-C–o-. .11('m/wl's Xl'll 101 k Slock EJ'rilol1(J(' NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER March 29, 1963 FILE COpy Since early January the market averages have been swinging back and forth in a relatively narrow trading area. In terms of the Dow-Jones Industrial average, the range has been between the 1I1tra-day high of 694.27, reached on February 18th, and the low of 656.55, reached on March 1st. The question at the moment is whether or not this trad1l1g shelf is a prelude to a further advance into the heavy overhead supply area between 685 and 740, or a decline to the strong support area in the 625-580 range. On the favorable side, the present advance is still comparatively young. The 19531956 advance had a life span of 30 months, the 1957-59 advance lasted for 21 months, and theT960CfHrarlYhad-a tlme periodofabout 13 months. The present advance 6'om the June low of 524.55 is only 9 months old. Furthermore, in the three preceding advances the breadth-of-the-market indices began to show deteriorating action long before the actual high in the averages was reached. So far in the present market this has not yet happened. Our breadth indices continue to act like the market and, as yet, have shown no signs of deviation. On the unfavorable side, the Industrial average is approaching the maX1mum upside objective of 685-700, outlined by the May-June base. Furthermore, there is an extremely heavy area of overhead supply in the 685-740 range that will be difficult to penetrate It will also be noted that the time span noted above on the three advances since 1953 has been gradually lessening. If, as we believe, the market reached a top in 1961, it is probable that the life of the present advance will be Obviously, the trading area of the past 1tually be destroyed. In the event of an ups1de breakout it 1S difficult to a br advance in the averages. The heavy overhead supply between 685 and 72111 t to penetrate. However, an advance above the February high in ic t .s tin favorable action by ind1vidual ve-not'yet!'l!ached'the1lUpsideClbJect– LVes. Equally important, an the potential top pattern hat h Il t Ollie 3-month trading range would destroy would ind1cate that the distributi)J1al pat- tern will be formed at a iOO. . 1S, of course, would take further time and would allow individual is to their price objectives. If it turns ou hat ndustrial average reached its high 111 February at 695.27, the trading shelf of the three months is, from a technical viewpoint, a distributional top. The pattern pro ly is not complete, but a decline below the March low of 656 55 would indicate a downside potential of 645 followed by a probable decline into the 625-580 support area. From a longer-term technical point of view, this would be a very favorable development. It would broaden the base and indicate the possibility of an eventual advance well above the 1961 high of 741. 30. In summary, we believe – OJ That the market is in a broad consolidating area. On a long-term basis, bas1c investment policy should be to use this area to take major investment positions. (2) The consolidati..ngarea will probably con!inue for quit, some time at moment, we are near the top of this area. Basic policy, therefore, continues to be positive, but calls for buying On weakness to strong support levels in individual stocks. (3) During the con'solidation period, action of individual issues will be' highly diverse and extremely elective. It is, therefore, necessary to scrutinize the technical and fundamental outlook of individual securities in order to choose those in which long-term purchases should be concentrated, and those which should be switched into more favorable situations. Dow-Jones Ind. 682.52 Dow-Jones Rails 152.92 EDMUl\TD W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thh 111.11 Jettel '''' nut al'Hl \lnl'k-, flO ell cum.,tnnce. 10 be con,tllle11 n …, nn (lITe! 10 ..ell U1 ,J lui1lli.llwll to hll) .III 'CCUllfH.. N!(et 1E'll1.. hel CIlI Th(' Inf, 111.1111'11 , lnt.lllH'd h('I('11I Il,.t J.,\I,'llInt('(',\ til ,IC(,llrncy.ol lotllpletcnl'-' /lud the fill 111… hlll.! th(1 ('uf I… n',1 .In,11II1IIel n, II' IIm ll1nc… b tll ,u'\I'II((l JI …..I l'IIn hv \\'.II … ton t… C .. In All C'IHCS'l.. r injn nlc .,lIhl(,t tn ,h.lll).!c \\lllwII\ Iltll' \\'111-,111 k e, hH , 111111 01\1('1' 'lIltl i'mpl(l\('C… Ih('r(..,f 1'1I11'h,\…e nml mny h,I\C nn Intel,''''\ In the cclIIHIc-. mcnllflc,1 h('IClll 'rht… mnlhl't Idl('t I… IlItI.ndCtI ,\lId Plfk-l.'lIt('\ m1'tc\) ,I' 1I ).!'C1WL,LI. l11ffll III III lIn dllY to, ,I,I 111111 \..('\ ne\\ … ,111(( not .1 ….1 lumpictc un.I!I … AtI,iltln,d IIlfHI lllollL1\ lilt I''''pe, I til ,II!I 'c 1I1111l' 'lrtl, (1 ttl helcll1 \\II! hI' fllllll … hfU l!Jllln 1'I)I1et \ \ ' 11)1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 05, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 05, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - April 05, 1963
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./ Walston &Co. –;.;……. Inc ;,….;;…..;…;..; Memie1'R Sell' 10,.1, Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND oveRseAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 5, 1963 The area between the March 1st low of 656.55 and the February 18th high of 694.27, which had contained the Dow-Jones Industrial average since early January, was finally pene trated on the upside on Thursday of this week and the average reached a high of 703. 77. Of course, the Standard & Poor's 425 Industrials had reached a new high on March 26th, follow- ed by the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index on March 28th. By contrast, most rail and util- ity averages had failed to make new peaks. Because of the wide following of the Dow-Jones Industrials, however, Thursday's action seemed to mark the official entry into new high ground in the minds of many investors. the.inmortance of this action. It does not, first of all, change the basic picture. The heavy o;-e;head 196162top exists. The base formed from May to October of 1962 still indicates not much more than a move into this supply. For this reason it is, in terms of the averages, difficult to envision too much more than a further push into the supply area even if the current strength follows through. It would, however, be silly to say that the new high, if confirmed, will not alter the picture at all. What it would mean, probably, is an extension of the time period in which the Dow would remain at or around present levels. The potential top at 690-660 would have been destroyed, and a new pattern would have to form. This, of course, would take some time. In such a climate there could be wide moves in both directions in a number of individual stocks. This letter has often remarked on the fact that the 1946-49 period bears enough sim- ilarities to the present market to make it worthy of study. of market action foreseen above takes place. Similarities th true if the type oRof the averages have so far been striking. In June of 1946, in terms of and made a low four months later in October at 160, tea ade a high of 212 of t ' . The present market reached its peak in November of 1961 and of the old high. Eight months after its peak, se 0 ater in June at 525 was 71 ruar 47, the Dow had rallied to 87 of its-high; s ,-,H-Tal-lied-to-84-ofAhe-old-hlgh.-Th low of October 1962 was bottoms reached were 74 and 0t as was the low of May, 1947,and the highs, respectively. At the moment, in April 1963, seventeen m high. The compar e lyj e ginal top, Dow has rallied to 94 of its old 7 was a bit more drawn out, but the June 1948 peak reached twenty-four The action of i s f he original high, was 92 of that figure. stocks, however, is far more important than that of the aver ages. In 1946, for exa e, many stocks retreated far more than the averages, showing losses of 50 or more from their highs. The same type of action took place last year, as holders of such issues as Brunswick and Transitron are well aware. After the break, however, the action was also diverse. Chrysler, for example, also a market leader in the pres- ent market, showed 75 appreciation from late-1946 'to late 1947. Anaconda, on the other hand, by early 1948 was selling some 15 below its 1946 low. What is really interesting about the performance of individual issues, however, is the action subsequent to mid-1948. For the worst that can be said about today's market is that it is at a similar stage of development. It is, of course quite possible that we are in an earlier stage of the time period today and, moreover, it is highly probable that any decline that takes place will be of a much lesser magnitude than that which occurred in 1948-49. Yet despite the fact that theL year subsequent to June 1948 'saw a return to the 1946 lows; the act- ion of a number of stocks was surprisingly good. Goodrich, for example, reached a high of 11 adjusted) in mid-1948 and for the next year never sold below 9 adjusted. It was a leade of the subsequent bull market and had doubled by the end of 1950, tripled by the end of 1951 and almost quadrupled by 1953. By way of contrast, Mack Truck, by June, 1949, was selling at around one-third of its June 1948 high. It did not reach that peak again until seven years later. Thus, if today's market continues to show similarities to its predecessor, the present trading range will provide the last opportunity to take long-term positions in many stocks prior to the next major upswing. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 702.43 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 155.03 ThiS mnrket letter IS not, nnd under no circumstances IS to be eonstrtled n5, nn olTel to sell 01 solicltatloll to buy any ;eC\11 ItJe, relell ell to hel ('In The mtlll mntlon con tamed herem 11'1 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the CUI nl-.hlllj..(' thel cur nut. and unliel 110 ell It to b(l Cl)lll'oilUcd os, n tlUn b Walston & Co, Inc All expresslOns (Jt opllllon are ;uhlect to ehnlll!c \Hthuut nohee Wah,lon & Co. Ine. ancl OffIce!!! Directurs Slocl.hohler.. lind thercot, purchnllc, sell nnd mllY have an mterest III thc ecllntiC'l mentIOned 'fhis mnrl-.et Jettel ' intended lInd m'erelY n n J..('cnerlll, mformal commentary on dny to !IllY market news 3nd not as a complete Alilhtlnni IlIt01 mntlOn \\Ith 1('''llcct til setlllltl(tl Icfclled to herem Will be furnashed u,pon Tet)uest \\ 30)

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - April 11, 1963
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Memilfl'R Xell' l'n', Sinek NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 11, 1963 The market, as measured by the averages, reached new high territory for the ad- vance from the June lows. The Dow-Jones Industrials reached an high of 710.50, compared with the 1961 peak of 741. 30, and Standard & Poor's 425-Industrial Stock index reached 72.35 as compared to the 1961 high of 76. 69. Both averages have slightly exceeded the upside potentials mentioned by this letter late last year. Both averages are also now in the heavy overhead supply area where the market topped out from April, 1961 to March, 1962 Despite these cautionary signals, there has been no change in the favorable action of our breadth indices. These breadth indices gave warning signals in 1957, 1959 and 1961- 1962 quite some time before the averages reached their actual highs. This has not yet hap- pened in the present advance. Also, neither the averages nor most individual stocks have as yet formed top patterns of importance. Thi.s will take time. In addition, quite a few industrial issues have not yet reached the upside potentials outlined by the May- November base patter The net result of this diverse technical pattern will probably be an extremely selective mar- ket. It is difficult to envision a new, roaring bull market so soon after the 290/0 decline of 1962. Less than 250/0 of the technical graphs of individual issues indicate enough of a base pattern, or strong enough relative strength, to indicate new highs above their individual all- time highs. The balance of the list probably needs a rather lengthy time period in order to broaden the now existing potential base patterns. As readers of this letter know, we turned quite bearish in August of 1961 and advo- cated a policy of selling on strength. This policy was sharply reversed in May-June and October of last year when this letter believed the market gs downside objective and was a sound, long-term buy. We believed, however, t ing area was prob- able before the market advanced on a broad scale.!! t ar 1S now probably near the top of this trading area. Selective strength may c n . ue so at longer, but we would use such further strength to lighten x ths or longer) trading ac- counts in anticipation of a somewhat more fa reb . g period at a later date. —-The advance from the J.une vi usly selective. -The leaders of the ad- vance have been the big, issues. The speculative favorites of 1961 have done little marketwise. In our e d Certainly the drop in prices has resulted in bringing high quali the decline has brou t ir E n to much more reasonable prices. In some cases, ratios back to the average of the past ten years. For long-term investors in r in growth, these issues represent a most interesting purchas For those individuals' up with losses in second and third rate growth issues, still selling at high PiE ratios, it would seem sound investment policy to upgrade accounts by switching into the group below. Reprinted below is the suggested list, together with ten lower-quality growth issues that already had suffered severe price declines. The high quality group has advanced 420/0 from the lows prior to June 25th while the other list has declined 1;G!jfi, 97 ' Stock Corning Glass Eastman Kodak Dow Chemical General Electric Hercules Powder Intern'l Bus. Mach. Minn. Honeywell Minnesota Mining Procter & Gamble Rohm & Haas Low 112 86 42 56 28 300 76 43 60 73 Now 165 117 63 76 40 447 105 62 78 110 0/0 Change 47 36 50 36 43 49 38 44 30 51 Stock -Lo-w Now American Photo 17 11 Anken Chern. 34 27 Brunswick Corp. 22 17 Crowell-Collier 19 15 Fairchild Camera 32 35 Foxboro Company 27 27 Hewlett- Packard 16 20 Lionel Corp. J,g 6 Transitron Elec. 7 6 Universal Match 13 15 0/0 Change – 35 – 21 – 23 – 21 9 25 J.;'- – 14 15 Dow-Jones Ind. 708.45 Dow-Jones Rails 156.87 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl- market l(!l\;.er Ii not. no 19 to he contll1crl as, nn offel to ,,('II 01 H HuhCltntlll tn lHl) lny Idell cd tn hel em The m(m millIOn Cmtamcd I not lXunrnntecd no; to tlCCllrllCY III .. Rnd the fUI thel cuf N not. nnd unclel 110 Ul Ib to be lOllbtllled al, II relll (,entn- tll)n hy \Vnlston & Co Inc All e,,preS;IOI1S uf 0)1111011 are suher't to chun,,;c \Hth,.ut nuliee Wnl..tol1 & C. Inl IInel Stud.hulelel'; nnd theroof, Il\uchlille. sell nnl! mlY hnve In lIltCl('st m the lCrm!tlC mentlne.1 helelll Thl'l mal)et let tel mten.etl amll\lecllted merely lI n Informnl cnmmentulY on dn)' to dny mnrket news nnd nut lib a complete annhl Ad,llllnnnllll(lmntloli \\Ith Ie-pel't tu Ilny Idellcel to hCICl1i …. ,11 be urm… hl'd uPon request \\., 'lll

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1963
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ALL WIRES Monl!ar, Ap'ril Ii, 1963 There h; an error the tlbulation at the end of the April 11th blue The corl!'ed 3Mb low on LIONEL COR PORATIO'l1 'II'IilS 8 rather than 18. The pereenw.ge change for Lionel IIhould read – 250/. rather ahan – 61., and the mvermge decUne fo!' the lower U8t should read rather ths It Edmund W. T61bell N'Y

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1963 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1963 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1963 page 3
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-.– – — -,1 LOW- PRICED SPECULATIVE Close 4/15/63 0/0 Yield Comment Audio Devices 111/8 B- Hold Campbell ChibougamilU 3 7/8 C Hold Chicago & No. West Rwy 19 7/8 C Hold El Paso Natural Gas 18 3/4 B 5.3 Buy at 17-16 Hold Flying Tiger 11 5/8 C Hold —–Foote Mineral Great West Financial 10 1/2 23 7/8 B 0.9 Hold stk Hold — International Packers 16 3/4 B- 5.9 Hold for 23-25 Mesabi Trust 12 3/4 5.1 Hold for income Microwave 10 3/8 B Hold Murphy Corp. 18 3/4 2.7 Hold for 25 National Can 12 3/4 B- stk Hold Pacific Petroleum 12 1/8 B- Buy-Hold Reeves Bros. 141/8 B- 3.5 Hold for 21 Seaboard Finance 19 – —SperryRand ,–131/4-B. Hold for 22-24 –j- . Buy-Mold ,. April 15, 1963 Edmund VI. Tabe11 Walston & Co. ,Inc. 7'1 Wall Street New York 5, New York j J Close 4/15/63 Caterpillar Tractor 37 3/8 Corning Glass 166 1/4 Crown Zellerbach 55 1/2 DuPont 2393/8 General Motors 68 5/8 Gulf Oil 443/4 Mach. Minnesota Mining 61 7/8 Fenney, J.C. 487/8 Royal Dutch 49 3/8 Standard Gil of N. J. 67 5/8 Woolworth 75 AND LONG-TERM GROWTH 0/0 Quality Yield Comment A 2.7 Hold Buy at 35-33 A 1.2 Hold Buy at 150 A- 3.2 Hold Buy at 47 -45 A (a) 3.1 Hold BUY,at 230-220 A 4.4 Hold A 3.6 A 0.9 A ,1.4 Hold -.Hold for 49Q-500 '-, Hold-Buy at 55 A 3.1 Hold A 3.1 Hold A 3.8 Hold A- 3.3 Hold (a) Flus stock April 15, 1963 EDMUND W. TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST PRICE APPRECIATION Close 4/15/63 -d.uality 0/0 Yield Comment Air Products 57 3/4 B (a) 0.3 . Hold Allied Chemical 471/8 A- 3.8 Hold for55 Alside, Inc. 29 3/8 1.9 Hold Buy at 27-25 American Optical 631/2 B (a) 3.1 Hold for 75-80 American Viscose 617/8 3.2 Hold for 75-80 Atchison Topeka & S. F. 27 1/4 A- 5.3 Buy-Hold Beaunit Corp. 22 1/2 B 5.3 Buy-Hold Burlington Ind. 33 1/2 B 3.6 Hold-Buy at 28 Burroughs Chrysler – 291/2 -, 109-3/8 – B B- 3.4 Hold for 35 'Hold'for 120'— Cluett, Peabody 45 3/8 B 3.6 Hold for 53-55 Collins & Aikman 35 1/2 B 3.4 Hold for 40 Columbia Pictures 26 1/4 B stk Hold for 29 Consolidation Coal 413/4 A- 3.8 Hold-Buy at 37-35 Continental Insurance 61 7/8 (a) 3.6 Hold for 70-75 Electric Stor. Batt. 57 B 3.9 Hold Ex-Cell-O 407/8 A 3.9 Buy-Hold First Charter Fin. 43 1/2 stk Hold-Buy at '40-38 Fruehauf Trailer 29 3/4 B 5.0 Hold General Mills 37 1/2 A 3.2 Great Northern Faper 39 7/8 B 2.5 old for 50-55 Int'l Minerals & Chern. 50 3/4 B 2.8 Buy-Hold '. Int'l Tel & Tel. 47 3/8 B 2.1 Hold for 50-52 Kern County Land 75 1/2 A 3.1 Hold for 82-85 Kerr McGee 391/4 A- 2.5 Hold-Buy at 35-33 Korvette, J. 26 1/4 Hold for 35-40 Louisiana Land Exp. 82 3/4 A 2.7 Hold for 85-90 McDermott, J.Ray 28 1/2 3.2 Buy-Hold .- McKesson & – 46 5/8 – .,.,..A ..-….. – 3.2 -,Hold-Buyat 42,,,,,,,— Newmont Mining 73 5/8 A- 3.3 Hold No. American Aviation 64 B 3.1 ,Hold-Buy at 55 Northwest Airlines 48 3/8 B 2.1 Hold for 60 Panhandle Eastern 76 A- 2.9 Hold Raytheon Co. 23 5/8 B stk ,Hold for 35 Reynolds Metals Schlumberger 29 5/8 B 1.7 Hold-Buy at 25-24 69 3/4 1.4 Buy-Hold Stevens J. P. Union Bag-Camp 34 38 3/8 B B 4.4 Buy-Hold 3.9 Buy-Hold U. S. Plywood U. S. Vitamin 56 1/4 24 7/8 AA 3.5 Hold-Buy at 50-48 2.8 Hold for 30-32 Universal Oil PrOd. Varian Associates 33 3/4 28 B B 2.2 Buy-Hold Hold April 15 , 1963 (a) Plus stock dividend.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - April 19, 1963
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Wdlston &- Co. Inc MemleIR Xel/' rod, Stock Euilange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGelES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 19, 1963 The market, from a shorter-term point of view, is beginning to show some indica- tions of technical deterioration. The breadth indices are continuing to confirm the rise in the market averages, but at a slower pace. The favorable action of the twenty-five week moving totals of volume and advances and declines also is continuing, but these indices could turn negative over the next week or so. Twenty-five weeks ago was the Cuban crisis low when the Dow-Jones Industrials reached 549.65. From now on the volume and number of advances must continue upward at an accelerated pace in order to offset the higher take-off figures. The shorter-term ten-week moving totals are already beginning to show below-average actio These totals now show slightly more declining stocksthan advancing stocks. Obviously, the market has not yet built a top pattern,and any technical decline at this point would meet down side resistance off the top of 690-670 support area where the market held for two months. There are enough individual issues that indicate higher levels over the near term to suggest a continued trading area at a high level. During such a period, the breadth indices must be watched closely for signs of possible further technical deterioration. This letter continues to believe that the market is in a broad accumulation area, but that more time is needed before the pattern is completed and the market is ready to resume the advance on a broad scale. In perusing the graphs of some eighteen hundred or more indi vidual issues, we can find a sizable number that have formed excellent technical patterns and suggest considerably higher levels over the longer term. Most of these issues are of higher or above-average quality companies. They comprise probably only about 250/0 or 300/0 of the total. The balance of the list indicates the need of before, from a technical viewpoint, they can advance to new high . ought that, at this stage of the market pattern, there are not enough to gest a roaring bull market. It is much like a football squad that has a st team but not enough re- serves to start a series of successive wfiYa ime to train the second and -third-and, eventually, fourth participation up until now has been is i oLsaying that most 9f the market professional investors in better quality issues. The new issues to ridiculous carried the lower-quality growth and e adly mauled and is still on the sidelines. It will take some time be e s a g e s . In the meant h t is forming a base for ultimately higher levels. Indivi- dual issues will show overage action while the main body of stocks continue to con- solidate. Our recomm d list was sent out this week to all Walston offices and can be ob- tained from your Account Executive. One issue in the list is AMERICAN VISCOSE (63). Most investors are aware of the company's plan to sell its operating assets to FMC Corporation, converting the operation into a holding company whose principal assets will be 116 million in cash, and Monsanto Chemical common stock. As we have pointed out, the total value of these holdings, plus a tax loss carry-forward, could be close to 80 per share, and the presumption is that the company will, sooner or later, liquidate, allowing stockholders to realize something cIcse to this value. There has been some disquietude of late due to the announcement that the Justice Department may act to block the sale and also because Viscose has taken steps to register as an investment company. This latter step, the company has indicated, is purely a temporary measure In regard fo legal action by the Government, both Viscose and FMC have in- dicated that they would vigorously oppose any injunction in the Courts. However, even assuming the FMC sale is blocked, it does not seem that Viscose is overpriced at current levels. The value of Viscose's holdings of Monsanto is currently 40 per Viscose share. Ob visouly, in a holding company this should be valued at a discount. Applying a generous discount of 200/0, this gives a value of 32 to the Monsanto holdings, leaving some 30 per share currently being paid for Viscose's operating assets. These earned 2.21 in 1962 and with improvement in the rayon picture should do better in 1963. Downside risk, therefore, ap- pears to be limited in comparison with the upside potential inherent in liquidation and we continue to recommend the stock for purchase. Dow-Jones Ind. 711. 68' Dow-Jones Rails 159.57 EDMUND W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. reiThiS markct letter I' not. ,lnd under no co IS to he COT,,,tl ued I', an ffc) to 'I'll (l ,\ ….. jICIt.ltlll t'l hI!) any … 1erel! ed to hc\c\1l The lnfm mnhn contained em I! not I!lmrant('('(1 .Ib to .ICCUIlCY OJ Cllmpletcnes and the fUi Ihel cur I.. Illlt nnd IIllIlel IlO '-II elllll ..t,lllt'l''' to he lied IIh, .1 1t'IH tum hy \\1h,ton & Co, Ine All (If Pillion are ,uhle… t to ch,lIu'c Without lllltltC /,. C'I, Int'., .tntl 01Tlceh, Stu,khlJlllcl-. '1nd Employcc, ther('Qf, 'ell and maY have .Ill lntclcst III the ,,,(,llntle mcntlnncrl hel'-ln lllrukpt let tel )ntcn,1c,1 ,Inti pre,cntcd mClply .Ih I Informnl cnmmentnry on ,Iny to ,jay m,lrkct news ,\Uri not .1'-, n I.'omplelc nnlliYh A.I,htmnlll Inftlllhn \Ilth 1''''PNt tu ,Ill to helem he furnt,hed lIl10n request \\ \ II))

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - April 26, 1963
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Walston &- Co. Inc MellIhel . XCII' Ymk Sinck E'challge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 26, 1963 The art of technical analysis consists of using the past history of the stock market in order to draw conclusions as to pr9bable future action. It goes without saying, therefore, that in order to form a meaningful idea of future probabilities we need to have a fairly accurate idea of past history. Normally, we try to picture previous action of the market as a whole by using various averages. At the moment, the picture painted by these average is, to say the least, somewhat misleading. The recent history of the Dow-Jones Industrials, for example, is well known to most investors The Dow reached a high around 740 in November of 1961, drifted downward through March 1962 and then slid off precipitously to a low of 525 in June, 1962. Then, after fluctuating between June and 0 ctober, it immediately commenced a sharp rise which has brought it today to 718 or back, almost, to the 1961 high. For the analyst who takes the trouble to study the technical patterns of all 1, 800 issues listed on the New York and Arne rican StJck Exchanges, such a picture is hardly descriptive of what most stocks have been dOing. To begin with, the percentage decline on the Dow-Jones Industrials from high to low was 290/0. The great majority of issues suffered much sharper reverses than this. Those who follow the averages would have us believe that the market is now within an ace of equaling its all-time high. The number of stocks that, at current levels, are anywhere near their all-time highs or, indeed, any- where near their 1961- 62 highs, constitutes an listed issues. Although this fact should be quite clear with a few statistics. The Standard & Poor's 500high last April 17th of 68.92, within 5 of 1 61 11 even further to a level above 70. The 500- c . dex Wse, rth supporting nd ., example, reached a f 7 21. It has since advanced e broken down into a number of industry indices, and One all-time high, a substantial is hardly the case. As a mat in the 500-Stock grou total of fifty-six h 0 as Motion Pictures, e Tires and Rubber an e et with the overall index close to its ireeswouldbeinnewhighterritory.Such 17th, only eight of fifty-nine indices e e 'gh territory and these indices represented a s . e group. Meanwhile, within the average, such indices . ent, Radio-TV Manufacturers, Steels, Tobaccos, were, as of last week, anywhere from 25 to 50 below their 1961 In other words, in looking at the whole market rather than the popular averages, we get the picture not of a sharp upswing from the October lows, but rather of a mild recovery in which action has been viciously selective. This picture, moreover, is central to any analysis of the present stock market because it is exactly what one would expect after a of the magnitude that took place in the first six months of 1962. A broad consolidation phase is, as this letter has repeatedly stressed, necessary in order to build a base for the market eventually to mOve On to new high territory. Such a consolidation phase is exactly what has been taking place since last June and, moreover, if history is any guide, it may continue for some time. The rally from the October lows is a normal part of this pattern and has been, indeed, profitable to a number of investors who owned the right stocks, although it has hardly enriched an equally large number who have stubbornly retained the speculative favorites of 1961. It is well to realize, however, that its magnitude has been distorted by the averages and that it is highly improbable that the strength which began in October of last year constitutes the initial phase of a new bull market. Dow-Jones Ind. 716. 16 Dow-Jones Rails 163.24 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'i m,lrl., …l lettel ,… not, ,llll lim1cl no CII … I … 10 be cnn … tI lied .1 …. lin niTI'I I ,,('JI I 11 ,,,,hl'ltnl IIIn t IIII ,In … I ('rCI! cd tu hel ('Ill The Illf,., Ill.llmn ( nlUI n ('.1 here1 n I' nut I-fll.n H 11 I( ('.1 1' to .1('1 tlllllY ,, ,,,l1ll'iet('nc…… 11111 the fill n htll Ill! \ IWI cr I !lui. ,I nd UU,j('1 11 ,'II 01111,1.111, IY I' t hc ,,,lhIlIlCtI a,. n I elll C'-enta- lIn h,. \'alon &. Co 1m All C'll'rC'-,wn, of IHIllUIl ale 'Ilhjcc\ tu \\I\hl1t 11\UC' \',I\,\n !.. Cn, 1m IIUti OffllI', nI1CllUI' Slulhhul,ler.. an'\ JJJ1J,WI't'''' tnC'r(',f. .mll m,IY h,J\c lin In\C'Jl'''t JI) the ..,e.\J)ltl …. mcnll',l\ed hel!'!)1 fhl' mlllhl'1 lell!,1 ,., mtt'mlcd 111111 1I(.oollt',j mCIl')Y ,I' I! !cne,) 111(,,) m,,1 t mmentlll y un d,),. to ,1.1)' !l\,lrhf'1 Ilew' ,Iud nut ,I' It UHll)tlctc ,\,I,III,,,n,l\ 111(' 111,111U1I \\llh It'''',,!' t I ,Ill) III JilL I cfrlC,\ It I hC1CI1I will uIIlI,hcu uJ,,,n \\' lUI

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