TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 – March 15. 1991 The recent advance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average toward the 3000 level would suggest —-;— that-a -closing over-this …level-in-the-near-future .. is… a…. distinctpos5ibility–'However, whattype– – – . — … ;(- of market and and how far over this ieve1 remains the interesting but unanswered question. A plausible scenario or this recent advance in the market, which iS 9 of course, over simplified. goes as foUows—lower interest rates in the bond market result in higher prices of long-term Treasury issues. this in turn triggers index-arbitrage buy programs. which sent buy orders to the floor of the 'New York Stock Exchange cauRing stocks to advance sharply. This is precisely what appears to have happened this week through Wednesday afternoon. pausing briefly for the rest of the week for the triple watching hour to unwind on Friday. Last week this leUer analyzed the strength of market breadth and the extent of the current market rise to date. By utilizing the same raw advance/decline data. it is possible to show how much farther the market could in fact advance based on the past history of this series. The table below shows the ten day average of advances divided by the ten day average of declines. Starting in 1949. this series has produced 17 periods when the ration has exceeded 2.0 or more. In many instances. the ratio, reflecting a strong broad market advance, was over 2.0 for a number of consecutive days. – — ADVANCES DECLINES DAYS 144 DAYS 10 DAY 10 DAY OVER TODAYS FORWARD DATE AVERAGE AVERAGE RATIO 2,00 DJiA DJiA CHANGE .JUL 14 1949 476 230 2 072 2 173, 59 200 13 15 289 NOV 20 1950 586 291 2 012 1 231. 53 252,08 8 876 JAN 26 1954 590 294 2 011 1 292.85 350 38 19 b45 JAN 24 1958 610 305 2 003 1 450 66 503.64 11. 756 JUL 12 1962 753 318 2 370 2 590 27 682. 52 15 628 NOV 15 1962 719 348 2 065 5 629 14 721 43 14 669 ..JAN 18 …. 1-96-7—-855 01—2—1-84-a—e4'l916–J2–S-i22 DEC 7 1970 950 448 2 122 2 818 66 890 19 8 737 JAN 15 1975 1025 465 2 207 4 653.39 823 76 26 075 FEB 3 1975 984 486 2 025 1 711 44 829,47 16 590 JAN 16 1976 1047 498 2 101 9 929 63 986.79 6 149 AUG 30 1982 1113 529 2 105 6 893 30 1145 90 28 277 OCT 14 1982 1109 541 2 050 2 996 87 1229 68 23 354 OCT 19 1982 1139 568 2 004 2 1013,80 1218. 75 20 216 JAN 15 1987 FEB 6 1991 FEB 12 1991 1173 110 1110 497 2 358 2 2070, 73 2680 48 29 446 509 2 169 2 2830 94 o 00 o 000 549 2.024 2 2874. 75 o 00 0,000 – –.- What is interesting about this series is the behavior of the market after the peak in each ratio is made. By comparing the DJIA from each peak in the ratio to a period approximately six months (144 trading days) forward. an unexpected phenomenon of this momentum indicator is observed. Rather than indicating a possible correction from an over-bought condition. i.e. a strong plurality of advances over declines for a minimum of ten days, we find the average advance for the first fifteen observations since 1949 has been 16.85 percent with the market being higher in every occasion approximately six months after the peak. If we were to apply this average percentage advance to the two most recent peaks in February of this year, an upside projection in excess of 3300 would be Indicated sometime in the fall of this year. There can be no doubt that we 'have had since January of this year an impressive dynamic stock market advance—from January 9 through March 6 the DJIA has increased 20.36 percent in just 39 trading days—in a short period of time. Since such rallies generally take time to lose momentum, it would appear likely the rally will continue. Higher prices are indeed indicated. The 'projection' of 3300 'mentioned-abOve falis within the -upside objective of 3100 from a short base formation last fall and, going back to the 1987 -88 base that remains intact, an upside target of 3400. All this brings us back to our original unanswered question, Is this a mature stage of a bull market started from the October 1987 low or the start of a new bull market Point and figure chart analysis and momentum indicators such as the one discussed above would, for the intermediate term, argue for higher levels in stock prices 10-15 percent above current levels extending possibly into the fall of this year. If this is true, it appears a positive market environment is currently present while we wait for the answer to unfold. Dow Jones 'Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/14/91) RJS jb 2944.06 373.26 5847.98 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expression of opinIOn or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offeror the soliCitation of an offerlo buy or sell any security referred to or mentIOned The maner IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber Wh1Ie we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor olthe statements made herein Any aclion to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and InformalJon Delafield, Harvey, TabeU Inc, as a corporatIOn and tis offICers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posillons or trades In respect to any secUrities menboned In thiS or any future Issue, and such postllon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may gIVe adVice to Its Investment adViSOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. eN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 085435209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 – March 22, 1991 The week's major stock market event can be said to possess, at the very least, a fair amount of symbolic significance. On Tuesday morning, it transpired that IBM was holding,a telephone. -' '—conference-with'-securities-analysls 'whofollowed-the company.- Those a'n-alists, representing- some of the highest powered research departments in the financial community, had been estimating earnings in the first quarter (which, remember, ends next week) in the range of 1.60 to 1.80 per share. The purpose oC the conference was to let these worthies know that actual earnings would be something on the order oC half oC that. Ceasar had been knocked off his pedestal. The Dow was down 30 points before IBM opened and, by the end of the day, with Big Blue's 12 3/4-point loss, had been trimmed by 62 points. At the week's low, America's largest company was selling over 20 below its high of 139 3/4, achieved barely over a month ago. Since this was a loss of 1.64 billion of market value, the significance was perhaps more than symbolic. A few comments may be appropriate at this point. Since this is a technical market letter, it should first be noted that, based on purely technical factors, IBM appears attractive at around its current price. The correction has returned it to strong support in the upper part of a three-year base in the 90-120 area, and we continue to feel that this premier company represents solid long-term-value. Secondly, at this morning's prices, the Dow is down a bit over 4 from its high reached early this month. Traditionally, a move of this magnitude is considered to be of little more than trading interest. We have stUl, it seems, not accustomed ourselves to a Dow level of 3000, where a 100-point move is just over 3, and a lI8-point move in each of the 30 components produces a change in the average of 7 1/2 points. The reason that the IBM disappointment produced so much nervousness, we suspect, is that it raised the question of whether the stock market might be wrong. There exists, it seems clear to us, a conventional wisdom regarding what the market has been doing since mid-January. It had been only a month before. that, in the throes of a disasterous Christmas selling season, that the fjnl!lial pgs–.ggQ.nto-,.lnform….usthtwewer.e.. tainly-J nA.reces.qion .Fol1Qwing…. Operation– —– Desert -Storm, there occurred what ranks, by many measurements, as one of the more dynamic short-term upswings in modern stock -market history. Within a couple of weeks we began to be told, without any precise explanation as to what the connection was, that the sucess of the Middle East War somehow indicated an early end to that recession. Were the IBM earnings casting some doubt on that forecast We are inclined to doubt it. While we were away on a fortnighrs vacation, our colleagues Bob Simpkins and Ken Tower were noting in this space that strength of the magnitude of January-March 1991 has, in the past, with a fair degree of reliability, tended to presage higher prices, at least over the intermediate term. The breadth of the rise to date signifies, in other words, the sort of supply-demand situation which indicates an extension of that rise. It had been suggested in a number of quarters that evidence of the markers excessive anticipation can be deduced from the relatively high level of current stock prices vis-a -vis fundamental factors. The S P 500 finds itself selling for 2 1/2 times book, with a yield now falling close to 3 percent. It is priced at 17.6 times the 21 it is expected to earn for the 12 months ending in March. These are not bargain levels. However, we do not find ourselves, for the time being at least, all that distressed at these relatively high levels of valuation. It can be noted, first of all, that as far as profits are concerned, the recession has been going on for some time now. since, to be exact, the second quarter of 1989, when SloP results were about 17 above current levels. Under these conditions, the expectation of a recovery starting. say. in the third quarter, does not seem unreasonable. There will be earnings shocks, such as the one provided by IBM, but we have some confidence in the market's ability to survive them. There are, moreover, a number of historical parallels for recent market action. By the final quarter of 1957. for example, S P earnings had declined 9 over the past year, They were to continue declining. for another year, drepping-14 1/2 frem tIle third' quarter of 1957 to the third quarter of 1958. In that 12 -month period, however, the market advanced some 30. We have mentioned in the past that the late Fiorello H. LaGuardia once said, I don't make many mistakes, but when I make one. it's a beaut. He could have been talking about the stock market. It is indeed possible that the markers admittedly sanguine view of the present economic scene may turn out to be mistaken. If this is true, however, it would be a historically unusual event, and we would prefer to await more evidence before pronouncing that such is the oase. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) SloP 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/21/91) AWTjb 2847,77 366.60 5798.77 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TA-BELL INC. No statement or expression ofop1n1on or any other matter herein contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the solICitatIOn of an offerlo buy or sell any secunty referred to Of mentioned The matler IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subscnber While we believe the sources of our mformatton to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the aCcuracy thereof nor althe statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investtgatlon and 1I1formallOn Delafield, Harvey, Taben Inc, as a corporation and lis officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter epressed .n thiS or any otner Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an uwestment adVisor, may give adVice to lis Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Inlormabon on any secunty mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 March 28. 1991 – The honeymoon stage of the market advance is. by now. probably over. It has been all of 17 trading dayssi!'ce on Mar !h Dow re!l–I1dfi,,;month high at 2973. 27.withthe SLP – concomita-iitly postmg a newall-time high. A fair number of relevant facts regarding the markers current position can be gleaned from the chart below. a ten-point-umt. point and figure chart of the DJIA going back to last August. Probably the most important feature of the chart is the base formation built up from last summer to mid-January between 2370 and 2640. This can be counted along the line designated as A-B. yielding an upside objective of 3100. Other targets are discernible. both from this chart and charts with other scale-units. but most of them center around this figure. suggesting new highs but only by a modest amount. It is the pattern at the right of the chart that is of short-term interest. Like Ceasar's Gaul. it can be divided into three parts. the first. at C. being the area between 2860 and 2930 which encompasses trading for the last two weeks of February. The second part. at D. is the range formed after the move to near-3000 in early March. and a third portion at E. initiated by Tuesday's 50-point rally appears to be beginning to form. An aside is necessary at this point. On no fewer than three different occasions. designated on the chart by the question marks. apparent downside breakouts from this formation. obviously false. took place. False breakouts of this nature have become an increasing problem for the technician. and more and more it is necessary that they be confirmed by other evidence. The essential point to note about the formation in question is that the 2850 (approximately) level has held. Were it to be penetrated. a fairly important correction. now counting all the way back to the original base back around 2600 could be visualized. This count. shown at F -G. is a possibility that needs to be kept in mind. but it must be emphasized. with 2850 having held on three tests. there is no suggestion that such a downside breakout is likely to materialize. This unlikelihood is further suggested by the better pattern \ for. the S.& P 500, which(the .recent portion only) is shown at … -;,. left. Unlike the Dow. which pushed back well into its February iTO trading range. the 500 managed to rebound from the top of that range and it now finds itself much closer to a new high. This pattern. therefore. does not posses the potent,al head -and -shoulders aspect of the DJIA pattern. Indeed. the S & P Composite has consistently been outperforming the Dow. The S & P-Dow ratio. using the October 11 low as a base equal to 100. had increased to 103.34 as of yesterday. It can be noted that this sort of outperformance has. in the past. generally been indicative of ongoing market strength. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (300) 2925.00 S & P 500 (300) 375.42 Cumulative Index (3/27/91) 5897.35 AWTjb —

TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 , April 5, 1991 It can hardly be news to anyone that the stock market has been moving upward sharply since the anuary 15. invasion ..-of Jraq ….!What .. is .. unusual..,.about this .. strength, .though is thE diersity .. among various market sectors which can 'be illustrah,d in the table at left, showing the January 14-April 4 percentage change in ten representative averages. The table raises some interesting pOints. First is the Average , Change amazing performance of the OTC Industrials and, to a lesser degree, the Value Line index, suggesting that the renaissance of OJ Industrial OJ Transport OJ Utilities S&P Indust. SOP 500 S&P Financial ASE Index OTC Indust. Value Line Wilshire 5000 17.74\ 24.19 7.17\ 22.54\ 21. 53\ 37.98\ 23.05\ 45.34 28.46 23.66\ the small stock may, after 10, these many years, finally be upon us. Interesting also is the sharp recovery demonstrated by the financial sector which, as we shall see, has for some years been the one of the worst performing market areas. Finally, we have the factor, noted In this space in the past, of the significant outperformance Of the Dow by the S & P Industrials and the 500-Stock Composite. Varying performance among the averages. is, however, not 8 new phenomenon. The following table traces 3 112 years of history for the same ten averages. All, of course, reached peaks in August 1987, prior to the October 1987 market crash. They all then recovered, slowly at first, then more quickly, reaching highs in October, 1989. In all cases except the OTC and Value Line, 1987 highs were modestly exceeded at that peint. Average Aug 87 Oct 89 Jul 90 Change Apr 91 Change \ Change High High High 1989-1990 High 1997-0ate 1989/90-0ate OJ Industrial 2722.42 2791. 41 2999.75 6.95\ 2973.271 9.211 – 0.681 OJ Transport 1101.16 1518.49 1208.76 -25.621 1166.26\ 5.91\ -23.201 – -OJ Utili ties SOP Indust. S&'–500 227.83' 236.23 212.09 -11. 381 216.30 5.061 – 8.44\ 393,1 410.49 437.37 6. 7tl.t'l9.4J.t.41.1t2,-651 336.77 359.80 368.95 2.481- – 379.77 –12.77\ 2.9n ….,,—— SOP Financial 32.56 35.24 29.20 -20.68 30.37 – 6.73\ -13 .841 ASE Index 365.01 397.03 365.56 – 8.601 365.11 0.031 – 8.041 OTC lndust. 484.50 472.40 510.60 7.481 563. 91 16.39\ 10.44\ Value Line 289.02 278.98 250.56 -11. 341 241.92 -16.301 -Wilshire 5000 3299.44 3523.47 3516.32 0.151 3634.61 10.11\ January, 1987 January, 1990 I March, 1991 -13.28\ 3.15\ It was in the fall of 1989 that divergence began to manifest itself. Most of us have the impression that the bull market continued through last summer. This was indeed true for the popular averages. The Dow and both S & P averages moved above their October 1989 peaks last July. However, many areas totally failed to participate in that last stage of the bull market. The OJ Transports, at last summers high, were 25 below their October figures, and the S & P Financials were 20 lower. Neither the Utilities, AMEX, Value Line or Wilshire were able to post new peaks. In any case, following the July-October downswing, the market has, once again, recovered, as the final column of the table shows. That recovery, in a number of cnses, has carried to new aU-time peaks. The S & P Industrial and 500 are now both above their 1989-90 highs as are the OTC Industrials and the Wilshire 5000. The other averages, though, remain well below their peaks of one to two years ago. The Transports are well below their 1989 figure, and the financial sector, despite its recent outstanding performance, is also below 18-month-ago levels. Recent improvement has also failed to bring the Value Line anywhere near its 1989 peak. Finally, it is worth noting that the Utility, Financial, and Value Line Indicators still remain below their 1987 highs. — It is also interesting that all the averages in the table posted new highs this week except for the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports. The S & P 500 first moved above its July 1990 high on February 13.and has been posting successive new .. peaksever since. The Dow of course. remains well below that high. This is a reversal of action seen in the first half of 1990, when the Dow reached a bull-market high on January 2, a peak which was not confirmed by the S & P 500 until May 29. New highs in the S & P unaccompanied by similar action in the Dow are not all that rare, however. In August 1979, the S & P reached a new high for the move from March, 1978. It continued to move ahead. on a regular basis. for a year without confirming new highs for the Dow. New peak levels for the DJIA were not reached until July 17, 1980, an interval of 232 trading days. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (4/4/91) AWTjb 2903.96 380.72 6021.36 \ \ \ No statement or expression of opinIOn or any other matter herein contaIned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an oHer to buy or sell any secUrity referred to Of mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and I\S officers or employees, may now have, or may laler lake, pOSitions or trades In respect to any securlbes mentioned tn thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, TabeU Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further InformaMn on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 085435209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 9872300 April 12, 1991 It OC;lUrred \L-Us.l'Ce!ltly lhat w.enow. find. orsel…es .just oer0 18 monthsaway from an election, yet there has been precious little media-coinmellt regarding presidential politics, a phenomenon not unrelated, we suppose, to President Bush's standing in the polls. As time goes on, there will, undoubtedly, emerge much discourse on the stock marker s behavior in election years, so we are, with this discussion, getting our licks in early. The table at left shows the percentage change in the DJIA for each election year, and Years/ o 1 2 3 the three years follOWing it, in this century. An apparent upward bias in the third year after an 1900 7.00 -8.71 -0.40 -23.61 election (such as 1991) and in the election year 1904 41.72 38.20 -1.92 -37.73 itself (such as 1992) has been noted. Indeed, 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 46.63 7.57 -4.19 -32.90 26.16 48.22 -23.07 14.97 -10.35 -21.71 12.72 30.00 -17.17 66.69 -17.86 -5.42 10.51 21.74 0.34 -33.77 4.14 0.40 81.66 30.45 -3.25 28.75 -52.67 38.53 the Dow has been up in 17 of 22 pre-election years and in 16 of 23 election years. The mean change has been 9.3 in election years and 10.5 in pre-election years, well above the overall mean of 6.96. When standard tests of statistical 1936 24.82 -32.82 28.06 -2.92 significance are applied, though, these results 1940 -12.72 -15.38 7.61 13.81 are less than surprising. It must be remembered 1944 12.09 26.65 -8.14 2.23 that, of the 91 years in the table, 56 have been 1948 -2.13 12.88 17.63 14.37 up and only 35 down. There exists, therefore, a 1952 8.42 -3.77 43.96 20.77 fair degree of probability, well over 10, as a 1956 2.27 -12.77 33.54 16.76 matter of fact, of selecting from this group, a 1960 -9.34 18.71 -10.81 17.00 17-up, 5-down sample. Likewise, since the 1199668 –.144….2577 1-1051898-!B.49.4821,5-6-.101,a.fta;ft;;IJH of-t..h- a-..'.;…u-eoI's\..'d. -(The-ntandard– . 1972 14.58 -16.58 -27.57 38.32 deVIation, for thoe mterested m sch thmgs, is 1976 17.86 -17.27 -3.15 4.19 22.6), the selection of a sample WIth a 10.5 1980 14.93 -9.23 19.60 20.27 mean is not at all improbable. 1984 -3.74 27.66 22.58 2.26 There Is more significance, although a great 1988 11.85 26.96 -4.34 deal less apparent justification, for the pattern —— —— —— shown in the table below, the so-cslled decennial Average 9.34 4.58 3.57 10. SO pattern first noted by Edgar Lawrence Smith. The Years Up 16 11 12 17 table shows the changes for years ending in each Years Down 7 12 11 5 of the digits zero through nine, and the fact that all years in this century ending in five have been up, usually by substantial amounts, has been often remarked. There is a less than 2 probability that this could have occurred purely by chance, and a probability of less than 0.1 that a sample of nine items with a mean of 34.74, almost five times the population mean, could have been drawn. There also appears to be some minor significance attached to an upward bias for years Year/ o 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 6 9 1900 1.00 -6.71 -0.40 -23.61 41. 72 38.20 -1. 92 -37.13 1910 -17.86 0.40 7.51 -10.35 -5.42 61. 66 -4.19 -21. 71 1920 -32.90 12.72 21. 74 -3.25 26.16 30.00 0.34 28.75 1930 -33.77 -52.61 -23.07 66.69 4.14 36.53 24.62 -32.82 1940 -12.72 -15.36 1.61 13 .61 12.09 26.65 -8.14 2.23 1950 11.63 14.37 8.42 -3.11 43.96 20.71 2.27 -12.11 -1960 1970 1980 -9.34 18.71 -10.61 11.00 14.51 10.66 -16.94 15.20 . 4.82 6.11,. 14.58 -16.58 -27.57 ,38.32 ,11.66 -11.7.7 14.93 -9.23 19.60 20.21 -3.74 27.66 22.56 2.26 1990 -4.34 —— —— Average -6.65 -3.74 5.03 6.69 11.17 34.14 3.65 -6.21 Years Up 4 5 64 6 95 4 Years Down 6 4 35 3 04 5 46.63 14.91 10.51 30.45 46.22 -17.11 26.06 -2.92 -2.13 12.88 33.54 16.16 4.21 -15.19 -3.),5 'lo9 11. 65 26.96 19.16 7 2 7.88 6 3 ending in eight, and a downward bias for those years ending in zero. Since 1990 has Just passed, however, and 1995 is a ways away, these figures are, at the moment, only of academic interest. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (4111191) 2901.48 377.58 6045.08 AWTjb No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicl1atlon of an offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our InformatIOn to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCrIber should be based on hiS own investigatIOn and information Delalleld, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posl1lons or trades In respect to any secuntJes mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posltlon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to I1s Investment adVISory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secufl\y mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 085435209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 April 19, 1991 The subject of thIS week's letter is foreordained. It is our business to comment on flnancial numbers. and on Wednesday, as the entire world is now aware, the granddaddy of such numbers, the Dow Jones.lndus.tr;ial.Av.e.ragefin'!-lly postecl.a ,,-lose.above 3000. The press recounted the entire- saga in tender lovin-Ii detaH—-Therewere; first, those six ….- ,- days in mId-July last year when the average's intra-day peak probed above the 3000 level, but it was able to do no better than close at 2999.75. accomplishing this on two consecutive days, July 16 and 17, from which level the 1990 downswing began. By February 13, 1991 the S & P 500 and a number of other averages had recovered to above their mid-1990 peaks. 8y mid-March. they were well above those levels, but the best the Dow could do was put on another couple of mtra-day figures above 3000, never managing to close abOVe 2973. Finally, on Tuesday, that figure was exceeded. followed by the attainment of the I1 magic lev!')l the next day. There are a number of aspects of the event that are worth comment. The first is that it is all, of course, absolutely Irrational. The accidental attainment of a numbel ending in thlee zeros by an average whose construction has been widely subject to cnticlsm is. of course, of no intrinsic importance whatsoever. It made headlines. though. because the market. thank goodness. is made up of people, and people are, again thank goodness, often less than totally rational. It is the collective action of indivlduals in the marketplace that constitutes the techniclan's field of study. If those indiViduals tend to become obsessed with a particular number. as they obviously have been since last July. 50 be it. The hoopla underscores another point that We have often made. the fact that the unscienhflc DJIA is unfairly criticized. It remains the primary piece of shorthand Which those of us concerned with equity markets can use to commurucate to each other a summary of those markets' action. The simple fact is that everyone knows that the Dow has been flirting with 3000 for almost a year. We are willing to venture that few know the S & P Composite is within a couple of percentage points of the round figure of 400, and we would also guess that it will not be front-page news when it attains that figure. The Dow's nine-month dalliance with 3000 pales by comparison with the first time that 1ndics tor reacheathefolrr—-dip t leVel-The–i OOO.tevel-;-it—may -be remembered .-exerclsed…. some-sor-Lt I .. , of fatal attraction for the market for something over 17 years. On October 19, 1965, the average f,rst managed an intra-day peak within 5 of the 1000 level. Four months later, it actually attained that goal on an intra-day basis, reaching 1001.11 on February 9, 1966 (much like the attainment of 3000 in July, 1990). The peak close, however, was 995.15, marking the high of the 1962-66 bull market. By October, 1966, the Dow was in the low 700's, and it was two more years, Fan 1968, before 1000 was again approached. An approach was the best it could do, since the 1968-70 bear market intervened. A recovery toward 1000 in April, 1971 was turned back, followed by a couple of more attempts in the spring and summer of 1972. It was finally in November, 1972, six years and five months after the first attainment of 1000 intra-day, that the Dow managed to close there. The epic. however. was by no means over. The general vicinity of 1000 was to remaIn an effective ceiling for the next ten years. The 1970-73 bull market topped out at 1051.70, and the 1974-76 upswing peaked at 1014.79. The April, 1981 peak was 1024.05, and it was not until January, 1983, on the way to 1287 the following November, that the index bid good-bye to the general area of 1000 for the last hme. Recalling that Whole episode reminds us that, although its behavior may have been quite Similar, the Dow was quite different back in that era. Eight stocks (American Brands, Anaconda, Chrysler, Esmark, General Foods, Manville Corp., and Owens lllnois) are no longer in the index, having been replaced by American Express, Boeing, Coca-Cola, IBM, McDonalds, Merck, Minnesota Mining, and Philip Morris. When 1000 was first touched in February, 1966. the heaviest weighted portion of the average, at 16.67, was steel and metals, an area whose weight is now 7.85. Chemicals accounted for 15 of the Dow in 1956 and now account for 6. The weight of the auto industry. almost 10 percent in 1966. has been cut in half. There was. a quarter of a century ago. no representation of the computer. and healthcare industries in the average, whereas IBM and Merck are now its two largest components. Despite a totally changed market environment. though. the public'S fascination with round numbers persists. The questIOn at the moment. is whether the pull of a round number wlli hold the index In the 3000 Vicinity over the next decade as was the case in the 1970's. Luckily. 2000 revealed no such attraction, as the average crashed through it on the way to its 1987 high and had left it permanently behind by late 1988. How soon we wIll be able to devote thls space to a discussion of the 4000 level remains an unanswered question. Dow Jones Industrials 0200) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (4/l7/9) AWTjb 2979.70 386.36 6161.32 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL lNC. No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offeror the sohcrtabon of an offer to buy orsell any security relerred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our Informabon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell tnc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may tater take, posrtlons or trades In respect to any secuntteS mentioned 'n thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,whICh IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may give adVICe to LtS Investment adVISOry and other customers independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secunty menltoned herein ts available on request — – …..

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091 987-2300 April 26, 1991 The chart below should not produce any great aurprlse for the majority of our readers. Financial commenttors havebeen regularly pointing out that the major averages are, at the moment, selling at at'relatively high levels in-relation to currenfearniiigs and-dIVidends. -TobespeciflC;- its closing high, achieved on April 17, the S P 500 was at 390.45. A reasonable estimate for the average's earnings for the year ending this quarter is 20.62. This results in a PIE of 18.94. Dividends. anticipating a mUd dropoff in payout, should be around 11.80, resulting in a yield, at the high, of 3.02. 20 S&P 500 – ',– ——-I-'7'\——–, The chart shows the history, since 1926, of the S P yield (on an inverted scale) and the price/earnings ratio, along with the price action of the S P 500 itself. It can be noted that, when these figures have reached their current levels in the past, they have, on most occasions, pulled back sharply. Most recently, the Index sold for over 21 times earnings in 1987, and the yield dropped close to 2 112. It required the 1987 market break to bring them back into line. Similar levels, as the chart shows, were reached In 1971, 1968, and 1966. It Is necessary to square this recognition of the currently full price level with the fact that, from a technical point of view, the market Is behaving impeccably. New highs are being confirmed by breadth and by secondary averages, and momentum stUdies remain highly positive. It is, fortunately, not too difficult to resolve the conflict. There will be no argument from this quarter with the principle that stock prices, over the long term, are determined by earning power and dividend-paying abillty. Over the Intermediate term, however, they are determined by the sorts of supply-demand factors which are the market technician's concern. It must, additionally, be noted that above-average price levels can persist for some time. The price-earnings ratio for the S P, for example, reached almost 20 in the first quarter of 1987, and the ultimste market break did not occur until the fall. Earlier, the ratio first moved above 18 in June, 1963 and remcincd -there until the, third. quarter of 1965. During this period, the market itself advanced some 35. Furthermore, as the chart shows, PE's around the 18 level and yields in the 3 area were characteristic of just about the entire decade of the 1960's. It is trite to say that the market is currently anticipating an earnings recovery, but this is unquestionably the case. Presently, estimates call for the S & P to earn something over 22 in 1991, slightly up from the 21.60 of 1990 despite the fact that the first-quarter earnings were down 8 112 and second-quarter figures will undoubtedly be down by a similar amount, perhaps even more. Obviously, a fairly sharp earnings rebound is anticipated for the third and fourth quarters. Current estimates for 1992 are around 25.50, up 18 from 1990 levels. Such figures would be sufficient to support current prices. It cannot be argued, though, that valuation levels place an effective ceiling on upside potential. When one looks at the history of the price/earnings ratio based on earnings a year ahead, rather than a year past, the usual high is around 16. ApplYing this to anticipated 1992 results affords a projected price of 408 for the composite. This is above current levels by approximately 7, not a terribly exciting prospect. Dow Jones Industrials 02 00) 2921.29 ANTHONY W. TABELL S P 500 02 00) 377.73 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Cumulative Index (04/25/9il 6070.43 No statement or expressIon of opinion or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oHer or the sohcltallon of an offer to buy or sell any secUrity referred to or mentioned The maner IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our information to be rehable, we In no way represent Of guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporallon and lis officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poslons or trades In respect to any securrtles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSitIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered wrth the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may give adVice to rts Investment adviSOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thIS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secUrity mentioned herein IS available on request

,——————————————————————————————————– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 16091987-2300 May 3. 1991 or ith tllow.J1oaround 3000. daily changes which seem. intuitively. unusual. are occurring. Are these changes trilly11lrgEi; – arethey-siinpliaproducCoCtt1e-affiage's higher level TO measure them properly. of course. they must be converted to percentage Changes. In the following table, we have taken each dally percentage change since the Dow was first computed in 1897 and have shown the number of trading days in each year since then that the percentage change of the Dow rell within various ranges between under 1 and over 5. . —-leaf VII H….I. H…I. H…I. H…I. I…H. ttlr HI .1.1.1..H…I HI -H–I- .)..5.1 len HI H…I- 1.-.3.1..H..I..H..I..)..51. IOU m 18 10 1 I 1 d2t 151 II 25 11 5 II 1m m !! a 0 0 0 mlita III II 25 1 0 2 lUi 51 II I 1 2 1100 !II 11 20 2 1 I 30 151 11 21 20 I 2 1m 102 11 51 25 II II jill 91 64 Ii II 15 15 1m III 54 2I I 1161 !II 12 1 0 1 0 1964 251 1 a a a a 1m !Ol 19 10 5 I 2 III! m n 200 1i01 m .2 21 5 2 1 1904 1m mm 51 51 I II 2 2 11 a0 ,110. !4l 51 I 1 0 liDJ Iii .1 II I 1 2 ,1101 m 11 1 a 0 dU m 11 2 1 a a 1110 m 55 11 1 0 I 1911 !IS !I 5 1 0 a lil2 m 11 2 I a a 1111 2H 41 1 1 1 a IU4 111 11 2 2 a 1 HIS III 11 22 5 1 0 IllJ 121 12 41 21 I II liH II! II 21 2 2 2 1m m 51 I a a a 1516 2U 14 II 1 0 a 1111 111 11 20 I I I ul8 lil II 11 12 5 2 1911 2U 55 11 aI 1140 m 11 I 1 4 2 1541 m 19 1 2 a 0 ,,,4u2 m II 211 20 Ia 21 a a 0 ,uU m 1 a60 ,dH m 21 1 I0 .uU !ll II I 2 1 ,LHI W 11 1 0 0 1m m II I a I a ,1m m 15 2 0 0 0 1911 !l! II 0 0 a 0 1911 201 II 2 00 19.1 m 12 0 0 0 0 1Il0 112 51 I 2 I 1 1\11 !l1 14 1 1 a 0 ,1112 !II 21 1 I 0 a 1911 151 19 10 I a 0 1111 III 15 It 2I lil1 1'2 15 15 1 a 0 1111 200 51 2 a a a 1m m 21 1 a 0 0 1111 III 50 5 0 1 0 1111 211 11 2 0 a a 1,16 m II 11 -dll—-r&r'-TfI93 w-r2'..22 I2 m2lin61;-.2II 15G2a0O 0 1110 II) IUI-m II 10 0 1 a —4i-8-0O—4 1111 III j\ I 1 a 0 .m!ll jJ I 1 1 a 1m III 61 II 1 1 I 1119 111 II 12 I 2 a 1920 III 16 21 I 2 a 1m 1122 2U '5 2Jl 51 I 1 ij aa aa ,1m 211 II I 1 0 0 ltH 251 II I 1 0 a dts 211 51 1 1 0 im m 51 I 1 1 0 ,1951 !56 21 a a a I 1152 2.0 11 0 0 a 0 1951 115 15 1 0 a ,lSI 211 11 2 a 0 I ,155 211 10 I a I 1 1151 !II 12 a 0 a 0 1151 !ll 11 I 10 dU !l4 II 1 0 0 0 ,1961 111 51 I 0 a a !!I4 20\ I! I 1 a a IhS m II 1 a a 1981 III 15 I 1 1 0 1111 151 51 21 10 1 I laa 181 19 11 1 1 1 !,inioI 201 10 I lBI 5t 11 I 1 a a 1 0 1111 114 14 2 1 a 0 1151 m 11 1 I 0 a 1m !II i8 I I a 1 11.0 !II 11 1 a a a – —– Briefly. the table reaffirms a conclusion we have iterated in this space. that is. that the market. during the twentieth century. has gone through four different eras in terms of volatility. The first such era lasted from the turn of the century through 1928. It saw. for the most part. over 200 trading days per year with a percentage change of under 1. Except for a few volatile years. the number of large changes during this period was fairly small. and in only six years did the number of changes in the 2 – 3 range exceed 20. The next period. one of highly increased volatility. encompassed 1929 and the 1930's. The ten year period 1929 – 1938 showed eight years when under-l changes numbered fewer than 200. and when 2 – 3 changes were' greater than 20. There were. in 1932, an incredible 35 daily changes of 5 or more. From 1939 until about 1970 there occurred a period during which wide changes were uncommon. The figures for that era speak for themselves. but It is interesting to note there were no fewer than nine years during Which a percentage change of greater than 2 never occurred. 'Finally. 'since 1970. the' number -of wide swings has indeed increased. In 13 of 22 years, changes of under 1 have been fewer than 200. and the number of 1 – 2 changes reached a level a good deal higher than it had been prior to 1970. If anything. in terms of average movement for the Dow, the present period appears much like the early part of this century. This, however, has been true for over 20 years and does not seem to be a phenomenon that has emerged recently. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (5/2/91) 2927.23 379.49 6068.83 AWT jb No slatement or expression 01 opinion or any other maner herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oHer or the solicitation of an oHer to buyer sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and InformatIOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securities menboned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISSue Delafield, Harvey, Tabe!llnc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to rts Investment adviSOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thIS or In any other Issue Fur1her lnformahon on any secUrity menlloned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ,- '. 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 —— – May10,'1991—– —,- There has been a sUbtle change in the market environment. It is as if the Dow I havIng finally managed to close above 3000 on April 17. decided it deserved a rest. With stocks having moved sideways for- three weeks. the trading range between 2850 and 3000 now assumes Increased Importance, and the ultimate breakout from this range will probably begin a significant move. In whatever directIOn It fmally takes place. Even in the changed market environment. one piece of conventional wisdom remains mtact. It has been universally noted that smaller stocks have been outperforming larger ones. and that this recent spurt contrasts with a long period, ended last fall. when precisely the opposite was true. The OTe Industrial Index. down 32 at its October low, was. at its April peak, up a fairly astonishing 68 from that low. The reaction to this phenomenon has vaned. Optimists have heralded the birth of a new bull market in secondary stocks, and pessImists have seized on the rise as evidence of pernicious speculation which can came to no good end. In the hght of historical evidence it is probable that neither statement is true. RATIO (VALUE LINE / S&P 5GO) VALUE LINE COMPOSITE — The chart above depicts our own favonte measure of small stock action, the ratio of the S & P 500 to the Value Line Composite. which equally weights some 1,100 stocks. The ratio is the upper line plotted above, and the two averages are plotted below it. It IS clear that we have, since 1968 J seen two great bear markets and one long bull market in small stocks. The first bear market began at the 1968 high. when the Value Line Index was at 188. 175 of the S & P 500 at 107. While the S & P was falling 35 in 1968-70, the Value Line plunged 54. The S 81 P moved to 8 new high In 1973 While the Value Line barely achieved a one-third retracement, and that averages drop to it's 1974 low was, likewise. signifIcantly greater than that of the S & P. From that 1974 low. there ensued a nine-year bull market In secondary issues with the Value Line.Index, as the chart shows,Mconsistently doing better than the large-cap index. This ended. however. in June 1983. and the relative performance of the Value Line has been inferior through last fall, when it found itself down 35 from a 1989 peak with the S & P down only 20 from July, 1990. Since then achon has improved, but all that that improvement has produced so far is the tiny blip on the right hand side of the chart. It is interesting to compare thIS with the five years between 1973 and 1978. when the ratio fluctuated back and forth with close to a dozen swings comparable to the recent one. We have nothIng against the argument that the long downswing in the relative action of secondary stocks may be at or close to an end. but it must be noted that fIve years of sideways action were necessary two decades ago before the last smail-stock bull market got under way. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2960.87 S & P 500 (1200) 381.66 Cumulabve Index (5/9/91) 6108.31 AWTjb No statement or expression of opinIOn or any olher maner herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrecllyorlndlrectly, an offer or the soliCllalion Of an offer 10 buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The maner IS presented merety for the convenience of the ubscrlber While we believe the sources of our Informallon 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler take, positions or trades In respect to any secUrities menlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With Ihe SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 'Is Investment adViSOry and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other issue Further information on any secunly mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE. CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 !– – May 17, 1991 We noted last week that the market had been notably less ebullient smce mid-April, and it . cO.rJtillue to emJtgaye—ribraJi9nsJrr..la!t. w1'lc!ion. Ihe17,,-o'!e9Y drop- of sol!lp!!..q Computer was a typical manifestation of the- sort of thing, absent since last Fall, winch seems to have reemerged.. The ascent of most indicators has moderated signlficantly since early \larch, and most averages have now folded over mto trading ranges. patterns that have emerged for four market indices. .We examine below the pOlnt-and-figure . C I!80 ,'1 ,2 !I;O !EO !\C 5 , 520 sid IID I, I 1110 Iho '0 '0 a mil1to \ 010 !Ij II II 3! 31 !O IS U. 2 22 2C 18 I. The chart at upper left depicts the familiar action of the Dow Jones Industrials. The upside target of the base at A-B was reached at 3000, and an example of the sort of trading range formation which has developed is shown at the right-hand sid of the chart at C-D, with a downside breakout of 2840. If this formation is to be adjudged a top, the most plausible downside target would involve a return to the original support at around 2600. The S & P 500, at upper right, has a similar potentlal top formation at A-B with a downside objective of 342. A breakout below 364 would be necessary to confirm this target. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (at lower left) presents an entirely different and interesting picture. The peak of the base at A-B has been overrun, and current action is normal, the rise having halted in the supply m the upper 1100's. This may constitute the beginmng of a possible top formation similar to that of the broader indices. It could also, were 1200 -to-be hrokendecisively, -be interiireted Qs-a head-and-shou\der-s base, presaging an ultimate move to new highs .. Financial stocks (the S & P Index is at the lower right) are demonstratmg similar actIOn. They have now moved into overhead supply from their original top and have started to form what could be a new top but also could be preparation for a final takeoff from a long-term base. The common thread through all these patterns is uncertainty. Trading ranges are just that, and there is no compelhng suggestion, in our view, of the ultimate direction of the market's breakout from those ranges. It would, we thmk, be advisable to await that breakout before taklng a flrm market slanceO' ANTHONY IV. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials 02 00) 2881.93 S & P 500 02 00) 370.56 Cumulative Index (5/16/91) 6010.39 AWTlb No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrecttyor Indirectly, an offer orthe soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any secUrity referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merety for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our mformatlon to be rehable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and InformallOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporallOn and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poslbons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered wl1h the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may give adVice to lIs Investment adVISOry and other customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or many olher Issue Further Information on any secUrity mentioned herem IS available on request