TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 — One reason recent stock market action may appear Indecisive Is the wide diversity of technical patterns for Individual stocks. This is not a new phenomenon. Indeed. it dates back to the 1987 market break. just about the last time most stocks were at similar cyclical stages—i.e posting major new lows. The approximate shape of the market's pattern from that point is well known to most investors. That shape consists of an upswing running through mid-1990. a precipitous decline last fall which. however. did not even approach the 1987 lows. and. finally. the sharp advance in the first half of this year which moved on to levels well above the 1990 highs. In terms of the S P 500. the market advanced from 224.84 in October. 1987 to 368.95 in July. 1990. It then corrected to 295.46 last October and. by April. had moved to a definite new peak at 390.45. At this writing. it is trading a few points below that figure. We are all aware. though. that the action of individual stocks. even those within the S P 500 itself. has been highly diverse. In an attempt to quantify this diversity. we looked at the price action for 470 of the current S P 500 components (Price history was not available on thirty). We examined. for each individual issue. its 1987 low. its subsequent high. the low which followed that high and finally its July 30th close. It is hardly news that most stocks enjoyed a bull market following the 1987 bottoms. The S P itself advanced 65. but. of the component issues. the average advance was 111 and the median. 80. Seven issues advanced by more than 500, 54 by 200 or more, and 177 -atleasCaoutilea–Onfhe other hand, 35 advanced-OY-less than 25.- — These individual bull markets. however. terminsted at various points in time over a three-year period. 65 issues had reached their post-crash highs by 1988. 212 b-y 1989 and 302 by 1990. leaving only 168 to go on to new peaks in 1991. Of those 168, 117 had reached their post-crash highs by the end of June. Despite the market strength. only 51 individual components went on to post new peaks last month. The SUbsequent drop. 20 in the Average between July and October. lasted a great deal longer. and was, in many cases, more severe, for individual equities. The average stock's decline was almost 38 and the median. 36. 159 stocks. somewhere along the line. managed to fall by 50 or more. There is a tendency to think of the market as a continuous advance from 1987 to date. but this Is hardly so. As of July 30th. 88 stocks in our survey were selling below their 1987 lows. and. at their most recent bottoms. 198 managed to seli below their 1987 troughs. Meanwhile. in terms of individual components. the advance from the lows has been not all that exciting. True. 39 issues have doubled. and 120 have risen 50 or more. 275 issues. though. have moved ahead by 10 or less. The picture for the averages. then. has been produced by individual issues showing a wide variety of patterns. Some have effectively remained in an ongoing bull market for almost four years. Others participated in such a market coming off their 1987 lows but subsequently. sometime in 1989 – 1991. enjoyed a full-scale correction. Despite the averages' move t6 new highs. a good many stocks have falled to move a great deal off the lows of that correction. although a minority have since been in a dynamic bull market. This diversity. with many stocks having already experienced sizeable corrections. may well. in our view. argue against any decline from current levels turning Into a terribly serious one. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (12 00) . Cumulative Index (8/1/90 3015.65 387.04 6229.11 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. AWTlt No statement or expression of opl010n or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly Of IndIrectly, an offer or the sollcltallon of an offer 10 buy or sen any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience ollhe subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mJQrmallon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and lis ofhcers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securrtles mentioned m thiS or any luture Issue, and such pOSition may be dllferent from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delaheld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered wrth the SEC as an mvestment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further InformaliOn on any securrty mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 ——— ,,–.,.,…..August9 1991 -. ' . -.' .-. The ritual dance. almost as stately as an eighteenth-century minuet. continues. The S & P 500. with little fanfare. reached a newall-time high closing on Tuesday at 390.62 17 above its previous high closing back In April. Although closing lower in both cases. it posted new intra-day peaks on Wednesday and Thursday. the latter at 391.80. The Dow. meanwhile. continues its flirtation. Unlike the S p. it reached new closing and intra-day highs in June. and has yet to exceed those figures. It was. at 11 a.m. yesterday. at a new half-hourly peak. before a weaker bond market drove prices lower. A rationale for the market's reluctance to move ahead vigorously may, as we have previously noted. be found In Its relatively high present valuation of earnings and dividends. It Is. perhaps. worthwhile to quantify this a bit. The last actual earnings figure we have for the S & P 500 is 20.97 for the year ending March. 1991. Assuming a continuing mild decline in earnings for the second quarter. to be reported next week. the figure for the twelve months ended June should be about 19.90. Given only a mild recovery. this should be the low for the foreseeable future. Thus. at the aforementioned high. the S P was selling at 19.63 times earnings. There have been. since 1949. 171 quarters. and In only thirteen of those has the S P 500 sold at a higher price/earnings ratio. Those thirteen quarters have been clustered into four separate periods. The first was in 1961-62. the second In 1964. the third in 1971 and the last one In early 1987. In two of these cases. 1961-62 and 1987. an Immediate bear market followed. 1971 saw immediate somewhat higher prices. followed by. of course. the 1972-1974 bear market. In terms of yield. also. the S P Composite appears Immoderately high. Based on dividends of 12.14. its yield is 3.11. A lower yield has been posted in only 39 of the past 171 quarters and again. in most cases. such a figure has been followed eventually by lower prices. – – – – – – It -is;- of–cou-r8e7easy-&.tofin-d–a-rejoinderor he SbQlleargument-The-earriirfgsfigurefor the second quarter of 1991 should be the low. Analyst's estimates for the full 1991 year center around 22.12. and 25.55 Is projected for 1992. Using the latter figure. were the current valuation to continue to obtain. the S P could well sell for over 500 in early 1993. Let us look at these numbers another way. A realistic estimate of S P earnings for a year out. the twelve months ended September 1992. might be 25.20. At current levels. we find ourselves at only 15.5 times these anticipated earnings. This is a much more reasonable-sounding figure. It appears even more reasonable when one notes the fact that a higher multiple of year-ahead earnings was continually posted in every quarter from the fourth quarter of 1958 through the second quarter of 1972. During this time the average more than doubled. Assuming. therefore. that analysts have the ability to forecast a year ahead with reasonable accuracy. surely a not unreasonable assumption given the amount spent on fundamental research. there appears little to worry about in the current valuation of stock prices. Of course in the accuracy of those estimates lurks the rub. It seems to us conclusive that gradually increasing earnings. beginning now and running through 1992. constitute an assumption built into the present level of stock prices. We have no quarrel with that assumption. However. any indication that such increases might not. actually. materialize would be. to say the least. worrisome. Of course, the ultimate determinant oC stock prices is not in valuation figures, which have fluctuated all over the lot throughout equity market history. That determinant is. rather. the supply-demand situation we attempt to assess through technical analysis. There eXIsts. moreover. every evidence that the present demand for stocks is robust. One need only note the recent receptions accorded a plethora of new Issues. which arrived on the market fully priced and proceded immediately to healthy premiums. Certainly, under some circumstances.it is possible for historical vaJuation to become irrelevant. One thinks. for example, of the long bull market in Tokyo, where any crIteria for normal price simply ceased to exist. Could something akin to that happen here For the time being, in other words. continued relatively high exposure to common stocks probably constitutes appropriate Investment policy. It would. however. be a delusion to suggest that those stocks are, at the moment, bargains. t ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (2 00) S & P 500 (200) Cumulative Index (8/8/9!) 3007.83 388.13 6260.18 AWTjb No statement or expression 01 oplmon or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offeror the sohcltatlOn 01 an offerto buy or sell any security relerred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for Ihe convemence 01 the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our Inlormatlon to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy therea! nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hIS own Investzgatlon and Information Delalleld, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSlbons or trades In respect to any securities menlloned In thiS or any luture ISsue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to liS Investmenl adVisory and other customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secUrlly menlloned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE. CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 August 16. 1991 We depart. tomorrow. on a four-week vacation where we will be just about as far removed as 'po-s'sible't'roff,thestook -inarkM-fn-U,e -Araic bcean croisiitthe Norlliwesi-p8ssage – We -will. –' in all likelihood. therefore. not be present for the stock market's ultimate resolution of its trend dilemma. the breakout from the slightly upward biased trading range in which it has been locked since February. The length of time that the market has remalned in that range argues. it seems to us. in favor of its penetration while we are away. and our colleagues. Bob Simpkins and Ken Tower. will be commenting on it. It is to be hoped that the 3000 level of the Dow does not wind up haVing the same magnetic attraction for stock prices that the 1000 level did. The average. it will be recalled. repeatedly crossed back and forth through that figure at various intervals for something oVer 17 years. between October. 1965 and January. 1983. In the present instance. the 3000 level has likewise been crossed a number of times. The Dow's first attainment of that figure was on Aprll 17. with a 3004.46 close. (An intra-day peak above 3000 had been reached nine months earlier in July. 1990.) It once again retreated and moved. on June 3. to what is so far its all-time closing high of 3034.33. Another drop took it. below 3000 in mid-July. The last couple of weeks. untll yesterday at least. have generally seen closes above that level. To date. however. the June high remains inViolate. The same is not true of some of the other widely followed market indicators. The S & P 500. for example. attained what had been its all-time closing peak when the Dow first reached 3000 back in Aprll. It falled to reach new high territory in early June. thus lagging the DJIA. but it has since moved ahead of the older index posting a new peak close on August 6. MeanWhile. we witnessed. this week. a sort of mini-Renaissance in small stocks. the OTC Industrials attaining new closing peaks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not all stocks are participating. though. The Value Line geometric average remains below its peak of Aprll. which is. in turn. lower than its October 1989 high. which. additionally. is well below th,e average's1 –au-tiinepe-kilChiev'edbacklnAugust-T987-. – — – – – — As we said above. we think the odds favor the trading range's being penetrated in our absence simply because such narrow. flat trends do not tend to last all that long. and this instance is turning out to be one of the longer ones on record. The key question. obviously. centers around the direction of the penetration. We have searched hard in recent market action for some early clue as to what that direction might be and we have. we honestly admit. been unable to find decisive evidence for either the bullish or the bearish view. We pointed out in this space last week that the current level at .which stocks are being valued can be used in support of the bearish argument. That argument becomes even more cogent when one examines the levels of those issues which have become the glamour stocks of the 1990's. These are companies with impeccable growth records and inarguable management excellence. We need to remind ourselves. though. of the hard lesson learned in the early 1970's. when it became evident that even good companies can become overpriced. The difficulty with valuation arguments. moreover. is that they are. necessarlly. imprecise. It seems obvious that the market is fully valued at 3000 on the Dow. but it is certainly possible. even given this valuation. to go on to 3100 or 3200. It must be recalled that 100 points on the Dow. these days. is just over three percent. In addition. technical factors underlying the market do not seem to us. at this point. to be all that bad. We use that phrase advisedly. since it is difficult to call market action good when we see such manifestations as close-to-peak levels in the averages being accompanied by anemic new high figures under the 200 level. Nonetheless. momentum indicators are showing satisfactory performance. Our weekly breadth index. which has. for some years. possessed an upward bias Vis-a-Vis the daily indicator. posted new highs last Friday. The daily breadth index remalns. at this writing. short of its high. but it is close enough to it that a couple of good market days could bring it to new peaks. thus confirming new highs in the averages. We do not. then. think there currently exists technical eVidence sufficient to make a forecast as to the direction of the market's next major moVe. We have regularly pointed out. however, that there exists a distinction between a forecast and investment policy, and that distinction is particularly applicable at the present time. We continue to suggest. therefore. an aggressive attitude toward common stocks until technical factors show more signs of weakening than they have so far. and/or a decisive downside breakout from the average's current trading range takes place. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (8/15/SlJ 2987.24 387.80 6228.67 AWTjb No statement Of expresSion of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly. an otler or the sohcltallon of an otler to buy or sell any security referred to or menllOned The mat1er IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our Informallon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and Information Delafield, HalVey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and lis officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSI\tons or trades In respect to any secUrities menlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any securrty mentioned herein IS available on request

' I- – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 – August 23. 1991 — – The financial community has digested a full plate with the recent events that have affected ,Wall, S treet-;!his .paRt wee!t.- eactilg. to.alomon.B I'llthers ,Inc.'s pJ'eac;ling s(),al!,.dal oez.lts Treasury-auction bidding tactics. and the coup that toppled Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. – ,-followed quickly by the subsequent collapse in the Soviet Union of this short-lived coup. our stock and bond markets have absorbed these events surprisingly well. This is particulariy true when compared to the initial knee-jerk reaction of the Tokyo and Frankfurt stock markets. After declining 69.99 points on the DJIA on Monday. the market rebounded 88.10 points on Wednesday positioning itself slightly above the 3000 level through Thursdays close. approximately the same level prior to all of the excitement. From a market technician's perspective. these recent events are certainly not to be construed as full of sound and fury. signifying nothing. However. it is important to note that market action of the past week continues to be confined within a trading range which has contained the market since the early part of this year. This range is currently defined by the closing high for the Dow of 3035.33 on June 3. and the closing low of 2855.45 on March 21. The DJIA has remained within these confines since February 5. a period of 138 trading days. — I The familiar chart above depicts the 20-point unit point-and-figure chart of the Dow and continues to be instructive. The upside objectiVe of the base at (A-B) was reached at 3000. In the process of reaching this objective. the trading range formation mentioned above has evolved and is indicated on the chart (C-O). If this 3020-2860 trading range is to be considered a top. a possible count can be taken at (C-D) with an initial downside objective in the 2600 area — a return to the original support area (A-B). The potential downside breakout from this trading area is 2840 and must be kept in focus. It is. of course. easier to identify the existing boundaries and measure the duration of the current trading range than it is to predict how long in time and/or in which direction the ultimate breakout will occur. As this process continues to unfold. however. this range i becoming more and more important in resolving the direction of the market for the rest of the year. Keeping in mind 2840 on the Dow as a benchmark representing the downside breakqut of this tr8.ding area we view the stoCkmarket ina cautiously constructive rna-niler. — There continues to be a rotation of leadership of individual stocks and groups within the stock market as shown by the diverse technical patterns of individual stocks. For the stock market to proceed higher. decisively breaking out of the current trading range on the upside. the internal strength of these individual stock patterns must further improve and will be monitored closely. ROBERT J. SIMPKINS. JR. DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) S III P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (8/22/91) 3051.88 395.19 6273.09 RJS jb No statement or expressIon of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or 15 to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicltabon of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our informatIOn to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the slalemenlS made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Invesilgalion and Informa\lon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporabon and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler take, positions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSI\Ion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, HaNey, laoon Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor. may give adVice to I\S Investment adviSOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other ISSue Further Informabon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 August 30. 1991 That we are in a bull market was confirmed early this year when the highs of July 1990 were surpa&ect, …!lnJ!.ttl!s .beeJ1….!J.cO!lJmed.L-evr!11—ool!Jes. I!!ost .. rn!ly… bYh.l)ighs l)ed 01 Wednesday. But are we in an old bull market which started in 1987. or a young one dating from last October The answer should shed some light on what we may forecast the market to do from this pOint. The chart below has appeared in this letter many times In the past. We feel that it is an excellent summary of past market action. Prepared b Delafield. Harvey. TobeJl Inc. (4yrcychplot) CYCLE PERIOD (Iow-hlgh advanco) I peak cycle date cycle advance ( 34X) 1. declines of previous bear lIIor from the current cycle's hlg A d- rkc!,, Sep 1953 Jyl Qti.JJ!I an 91 an 94 an 95 The chart condenses the past 11 market cycles. measured from bear market low to bear market low. stretching back over 40 years. The last time this chart appeared we pointed out that the length of the bear markets fell in two distinct clusters. The long bear markets. averaging 18 months. which occurred during the flat secular trend of 1968-1982; and the bear markets of cycles within the secular uptrends of 1949-1968 and 1982- It was noted that the July – October 1990 drop had declined the requisite amount and that the minimal length of the decline (only 62 trading days. the shortest bear market since 1949) was ofnearly as long as the characteristically short bear markets occurring during secular uptrend There was-also plenty extremeaownside action typical of major market lows. While the length of the cycle from December 4. 1987 is rather short (721 days) it is not abnormally so. In fact there is a visible bias toward shorter cycles. The average length of all 11 cycles is 953 days. while the last three average only 688. The average length of the past 11 bull markets is 728 days. the two most recent have been 659 and 780 days. With the current cycle only 222 days old. it would appear that we have plenty of time left for additional upside action. Particularly since the market has so far only advanced 34 compared to an average advance of 81. Cumulative breadth (simple advances-declines. daily and weekly) has confirmed Wednesday's high. again signaling further market gains. While it is not clear that we have exited the trading range which has contained the market since March 6. downside potential appears limited to a five to eight percent correction. We believe that the uptrend starting in October of 1990 is a new bull market which. if it lasts only as long as the previous two. will extend well into 1993. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 3033.99 KENNETH G. TOWER S & P 500 (1200) 393.83 DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. Cumulative Index (8/29/91) 6343.62 No statement or expresSion of opinion or any other matter herein comalned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dlrecUy or Indirectly, an offer or Ihe solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or menllOned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of Ihe subscnber While we beheve Ihe sources of our Informallon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ollhe statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc. as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler lake, posrtlons or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posillon may be different from any views now Of hereafter expressed In thiS or any olher Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabe!llnc , whICh IS reglslered Wlth the SEC as an Investmenl adVISor, may give adVice to 115 Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In ItNs or many OUtef ISSue Further Information on any secUrity mentIOned herem IS available on requesl