Viewing Month: September 1991

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 06, 1991

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 06, 1991

Tabell's Market Letter - September 06, 1991
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 September 6. 1991 Last week we reviewed the major stock market cycles of the past 42 years. concluded that the decline of July – October 1990 was a legitimate bear market. and closed the book on the cycle which-beganwith-thelows,ofDe,,mbeJ;..4.1987.0urfinal,sentence.s\!ggestedthat this new -bu!l- market might extend well into 1993. This week we will examine the bull markets since 1949 for clues of what may lie ahead. Using the Standard Poors 500 the chart below contrasts a composite of the 11 bull markets since June 1949 (thin Une) with the current advance (heavy line). The initial value of the Sa.P 500 is set to equal the closing low of October 11. 1990 (295.46). The horizontal scale is in trading days for both series. ,.,.. Composite Bull Market (Standard & Poers 500) CUrrent Market 19 3 1968 1961 — t 11. 19 Average length While there Is a perception that this market has undergone an unusually rapid advance. the chart shows otherwise. While the advance from mid January to April was quite sharp. the market was. in essence. only playing catch-up. For the 222 trading days from October 11 to August 28. the most recent high. the S&P 500's advance of 34 is right on target. The dates printed along the composite line pinpoint the length. not extent. of each bull market. Thus Oct 1983. the end —of theshoi'test bull market-(Augusf'I982 – O-Ctob-er-1983. 294 trading days) is the first date printed. while Dec 1961. the end of the longest bull market (October 1957 – December 1961. 1.042 trading days) appears at the far right. Bears may take some solace from the apparent proximity of the October 1983 high. which implies that the current up moVe may end in early 1992. However. it should be noted that While brief that bull market rallied an impressive 68. twice the current rise. Evn the smallest of these bull markets. October 1966 – November 1968 rose by 48. In short. a bull market which followed the composite advance. as this one has. and ended where the October 1983 market ended. would be both the shortest and the smallest on record. Conversely. a continued advance which reached 510 (approximately 4150 on the DJIA) around this time in 1993 would be perfectly average. Bull markets come in all shapes and sizes. none of which will conform precisely to any composite. The idea we wish to present is that there is some similarity between bull markets. that the current advance . by those standards. is quite young. and that a further advance of 25 oVer the next two years would be well within the experience of market history. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2996.87 KENNETH J. TOWER S II P 500 (1200) 387.38 DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Cumulative Index (9/5/91) 6304.92 No statement orexpresslon of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menMned The mailer IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own InvestlgallOn and mformaMn Detafleld, Harvey, Tabelltnc ,as a corporallOn and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posItions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such posllIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In Ihlsor any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an mvestmentadvlsor, may give advice to Its Investment advISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secunty menllOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 13, 1991

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 13, 1991

Tabell's Market Letter - September 13, 1991
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r i TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 September 13. 1991 As we know. the DJIA reached a closing ail-time high on August 28. at 3055.23. confirmed by a new high in the daily advance-decline breadth line. However. It now seems. half-way through the month -of-September. we must.pause-for-one ,ofAhemost -persistent seasonal.tendencies–of .t.h!stock market to run its course — the probability of a September decline. For 93 Septembers, since 1987, the DJIA has been up 36 times and down 57. The average percentage decline for the month has been over -1.28, which is the worst record for any month by far, This letter has spent the better part of the last few montha examining the trading range, which, until late this August. had contained the market since early February, In spite of the recent September pause In the stock market, thia move to a new high and the improvement of daily breadth is encouraglng Anticipating another Federal Reserve Interest-rate cut, the Interest-sensitive sector of the stock market continues to draw attention. The chart below shows the behavior of daily breadth in a different manner from the traditional total Issues breadth Index, and enables us to examine this Important seEment of the market. CUMJt.ATIVE NYS PRff'ERRED STOCK BREADTH IKDEX CUIILATIVE NYS( COMMOH SToex BREADTH INDEX OJlA CAllY Clost – – – – – – – – – h l – – – \ ; The NYSE, for some Sixty years. has recorded the advances. declines, and unchanged of all issues traded. More recently, breadth figures have become available for common stocks only, This new series constructed as a breadth index (advances – declines divided by total issues traded) is shown in the middle third of the chart above. As expected, this common stock index behaves in a similar manner to that of the traditional total issue breadth index. By subtracting common stock issues from total issues traded, we are also able to develop a preferred stock breadth index. representing over one-quarter of the total issues traded. This interest-sensitive index is shown above in the upper third of the chart. Both of these breadth indexes are compared to the DJIA in the lower third of the chart from the August, 1982. low to date. A classical breadth divergence can be pointed out on the chart above where the common stock ,breadth ,indexspentmost.oCthe.secondhalf of 1983declining, while the.DJIA went on to new highs in October. 1983. This divergence was followed by a correction, 15.39. in the DJIA. lastmg until July, 1984. The preferred stock breadth index during this period, however, went to a new high, reflecting the ongoing strength in the interest-sensitive sector during the general market decline. By hIndSIght, we also know a breadth divergence occurred prior to the October, 1987 correction; i.e. breadth reached a high in March. 1987 while the DJIA went on to further highs which were not confirmed by breadth. Currently, the common stock breadth index is still well below its high achieved earlier thIS year. On the other hand. it is interesting to note that the preferred stock index continues to move into new high territory. Whether or not the market remains in its present trading range. it is apparent the interest-sensitive sector of the market. representing a major component of the stock inarket, has been relatively outperforming the market. For the market to significantly break out of this trading range on the upside, however, improved market breadth would be needed to signal a change from a narrow selective leadership to a more broad based participation. Dow Jones IndustMals (1200) 2986.81 ROBERT J . SIMPKINS, JR. S & P 500 (1200) 38453 DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL INC. Cumulative Index (9/12/91) 6289.62 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemedl0 be, directly or Indirectly. an offer orthe so\tcltatlOn of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and InformatIOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posItions or trades 11'1 respect to any securilies mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered wrth the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give adVice to rts Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any erther ISsue Further InformatIOn on any security menlloned herein IS avallabte on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 20, 1991

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 20, 1991

Tabell's Market Letter - September 20, 1991
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 September 20, 1991 We made. before departing on vacation four weeks ago. one of this letter's least prescient recent- fOl'ecasts;-'suggesting ….thatthe tradlng…. range-' which had. contaIned the-Uow through spnngand summer would likely be penetrated. one way or the other, before our return. This was, however, despIte the momentous news events. not the case.. The Russian coup sent the Dow to an intra-day test of the range's low. and the coup's faLlure produced a couple of new-high closes which. like so many previous ones, failed to follow through.. On our return, the market was within a percentage pomt of where it had been when we left. It is QUI' occasional practice, when returning after a long absence, to sort our 3, !lOO-stock universe in performance order in the hope of ascertaining precisely where market leadership existse A preliminary inspection of the printout early thi!i week was confusing. since there appeared to be no clear cut leadership. We decided, therefore, to work on the statistics a b1t more, and we eliminated all stocks selling for under 10, producing a umverse of 2,221 stocks, which we then divided into five quintiles based on percentage change from Friday, August 16, through this Wednesday. 465 of this group were included in the S & P 500. The performance of those 465 issues deviated somewhat from the norm,. 93 stocks in each quinhle would be the normal expectation but only 68 S &. P 1ssues were in the best performing groupe There were, however, 178 stocks in the first two quintiles comb1ned, a number almost equal to the expected value of 186. A possible reason for the paucity of strong stocks in the S & P may well be the components' lesser volatility compared to secondary stocks. Capital weighting of the average also provides some explanatione However. no really clear eV1dence of beUer performance by secondaries is shown. We undertook the further exercise of dIviding the 465 S & P issues into industrial subgroups and counting the number of stocks in each quintile for each group,. Those counts are shown 1n the table below. IIUIIUll( GOllr I 1 .1 (IOur I——–.;;;;;;;;——————-;—;—–;—;–; –;-c;;;6;O;;;———, ALUIIII/Ull UTOOtlLE 00\ 000 0 (llltrU1R SlSTEI'IS I OFFICE EOUIPIIEIfT I SUPPLIES AUTO PARIS-ArtU 11,,1 N,W' DUTY TRueRS I PUTS PEvtnOES ALCQlltlU( SOFT 01t1N5 &LO HATERIALS tIlEIIICLS (!PClAllY) II II 0 0Z I I 0 I 0I II0 ! OIL , Glill DRlLLlN(I 0 DILl 'N'tOlllltEO OONESTIC OIL IIHEQRATED IIHRNUIONL I OIL WELL GUIPIIENl liND SERVICE 0 r,VER-FOREST PRQDUC19 0 POLLUTION CONIROL CHKICAU; CNEI'IICALS-OIV. COAL CDl'IlIERCIIIl S(R\lICES CDl'lrtUtllCAllON OUIP/llrR! tOllfUlE' SOFTWARE I SE.WlttS 1 I 3 0 2 1 2 t I I 0 II 200 t t0I01 I 200 2 PU811SHINIl PV911SHINO 'NWSPPII5) '''0,0(''6' f((l11il IIES1IiIUUNTI REUIL STORESI OEPARIENT IIEUll nOIlESIDRUOl CDNGlOI'IERATS CONUINER IIETAL I GLASS 2 I020 (I l O t (I rooD (HUN GENERAL IIReHANDlSt CHAINS CON1IIINR APR COSIITlCS 1200 0 00 I 2 I RETAILI SPECIALtT RUllI srECIiIILTl-APrAREL ELECTRICAL OUlrKEN' ElECTRONI(SOEFEHS nCC7DHIC5HNtHRUtlrHT'T1()N lECTRONICSISEII'CONUCTORS NOINRIND I CONSTRUtTlON 0 0 0 0 0 J10 I02 CJ J 004 1I0 SHon NOUSENOlD rROOUCTS STeH ULCON elOND OI&INC1 In1tLE /lr/lRL FRS. NtERIAINENI OOOS fOOD wNOLESALERS !lOLo HAlHlWARE I IDOLS ,Oll 9UllIKG DRUGS NALTH CAR-DIVERSIFIED HEAlTN CAR-IIISC NosrllAL IIANAGEIIEN' COllrNIES I'IE!'ICU rROIIUCn. I SUPPLIES HOt(L/OTl IIOUI/ARS 140USEHOLl) r I … INSUoIINCE 'OKERs LElSUF. TIllE ,.oIICNIHE TOOLS ,.oIICNIIIIIl-D IYERSI flED I'lANUfACTURINGColY. IND.) ETALS ISClLAIIEOU5 I sCELLAEOUS , ,,,I,, — ,,,,,J ,,J ,,, 0 3 ,,,,, ,I J ,, ,,I ,,,I . ,,I , –.- –.- loUCtO IQTS LECIRIC COANIU NAIURAl GAS TElEPNOIIE MElli AIR RANSPORI RAILROADS nrRUACIKISEPRS-lase. IHIIIEY CHtER 'ANy;g IIA,JOR ROIONAL UNIIS OlHER UOR 'ANKS lIFE INSURANCE Ul TI-LIN INSURANCE PRorRIT-CASUoIILITT INSURANC SoII'INOS I lOAN COPANIES PERSONAL LOANS FIltANC'oIIL ISCEUA'EOUS – OUINI ILL ,,,,,,,,,,II,,,,, -,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I,,,,,,,,,,,,,,IJ,,III,,,,T——– , ,I I ,,,,,,, ,, I ,, ,, ,,,,I , ,,, The remarkable thing about this table 1S the absence of any eVldence of leaderShip. In the vast maJor1ty of cases, the stocks in each industry group are divided Just about evenly among the five quintiles,. Some important groups, electric utilities and oils, for example. reveal some upward bias, but it is hardly s1gnificant.. We return, in summary, to face a market where the trend indication rema1ns unclear and one in which no general areas of leadersh1p clearly present themselvese ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Oow Jones Industrials 02 00) S & P 500 0200) Cumulative Index (9/19/91) 3031. 75 388.39 6299.63 AWTJb No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS. or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly. an offer or the soliCitatIOn of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our InformatlOtllo be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscrtber should be based on hiS own InvestigatIOn and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees. may now have, or may later lake, posItIOns or trades In respect to any securities mentioned rn thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be drfferent from any views now or hereafter expressed rn Ihls or any other Issue Delafield. Harvey, Tabetl Inc. which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor. may gIVe adVice to Its Investment adviSOry and other cuSfomers rndependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further In(ormatlon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 27, 1991

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 27, 1991

Tabell's Market Letter - September 27, 1991
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TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091 987-2300 September 27, 1991 As we close the year's third quarter, stock market hIstory for 1991 can be encapsulated in a few sentences. The year began with the successful Operation Desert Storm producing a sharp rise tq. new highS. In ea!'iyMrcll. 'he.1ir'l! cQrrecJionJo!lowing thaLriseproduced a.low ,of 366 .58 for the S & P 500 on March 21. – A -senes of marginal new highs enierget-'at'interva-Is for the rest of the year. the last one being at 396.64 on August 28. Effectively. these two figures. the March low and the August high. have contained the S & P ever since. Putting this phenomenon another way. for the past 30 weeks the S & P has remained in a range bounded by 396.64 and 362.81. The ratio of these two numbers is . 09. meaning that the area spans just over 9. from low to high. This is. to say the least. unusual. If one takes all 30-week periods since World War II. the average range is about 18. A range as small as 9 is normally characteristic of periods as short as 8 or 9 weeks. The present 9 figure is not a record. There have been LO cases oVer 46 years when narrower 30-week ranges have been seen. An example is the market's remaining through Aprll 1965 in a 5.6 range bounded by the February 1965 high and the September 1964 low. The table below shows the narrowest trading ranges in recent market history for all perIods ranging from 15 to 52 weeks. The first two columns (all dates are week-end dates) show the beginning and end of each period. Following this. the date and the S & P 500 for the high and the low of the trading range are given. The next-to-Iast column shows the percentage difference from low to high of the range. and the final column. for comparative purposes. shows the average percentage span for all trading ranges of the given length in the post-Worid-War-ll period. NO. OF AVERAGE WEERS BEGINNING ENDING —— ——– ——— HIGH —————– LOW —————– –R-A-N-G-E RANGE 15 SEP 24 65 DEC 31 65 NOV 19 65 92.63 SEP 24 65 89.81 3.14 11.67 16 SEP 25 64 JAN 8 65 NOV 20 64 86.28 DEC 18 64 83.22 3.68 12.15 17 SEP 25 64 JAN 15 65 NOV 20 64 86.28 DEC 18 64 83.22 3.68 12.62 — —18-0CT4.-565-FEB'I-I-66-FEBi-1-66-94.-06-DEC-l065–9j)-;-593,83-1-3;08— 19 OCT 15 65 FEB 18 66 FEB 11 66 94.06 DEC 10 65 90.59 3.83 13.53 20 OCT 15 65 FEB 25 66 FEB 11 66 94.06 DEC 10 65 90.59 3.83 13.98 21 OCT 8 65 FEB 25 66 FEB 11 66 94.06 OCT 8 65 90.08 4.42 14.42 22 OCT 1 65 FEB 25 66 FEB 11 66 94.06 OCT 1 65 89.90 4.63 14.85 23 SEP 24 65 FEB 25 66 FEB 11 66 94.06 SEP 24 65 89.81 4.73 15.28 24 SEP 25 64 MAR 5 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 DEC 18 64 83.22 5.30 15.70 25 SEP 25 64 MAR 12 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 DEC 18 64 83.22 5.30 16.12 26 SEP 25 64 MAR 19 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 DEC 18 64 83.22 5.30 16.54 27 SEP 25 64 MAR 26 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 DEC 18 64 83.22 5.30 16.95 28 SEP 25 64 APR 2 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 DEC 18 64 83.22 5.30 17.35 29 SEP 25 64 APR 9 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 DEC 18 64 83.22 5.30 17.75 30 SEP 18 64 APR 9 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 SEP 18 64 83.00 5.58 18.14 31 SEP 11 64 APR 9 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 SEP 11 64 82.87 5.74 18.54 32 FEB 11 77 SEP 16 77 MAR 18 77 102.17 SEP 16 77 96.03 6.39 18.93 33 FEB 4 77 SEP 16 77 FEB 4 77 102.54 SEP 16 77 96.03 6.78 19.32 34 FEB 25 72 OCT 13 72 AUG 18 72 112.55 MAY 12 72 104.74 7.46 19.71 35 FEB 25 72 OCT 20 72 AUG 18 72 112.55 MAY 12 72 104.74 7.46 20.10 36 FEB 25 72 OCT 27 72 AUG 18 72 112.55 MAY 12 72 104.74 7.46 20.48 37 FEB 18 72 OCT 27 72 AUG 18 72 112.55 FEB 18 72 104.59 7.61 20.85 38 FEB 11 72 OCT 27 72 AUG 18 72 112.55 FEB 11 72 104.54 7.66 21.22 39 JUL 2 64 MAR 26 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 AUG 28 64 81. 32 7.76 21.59 40 JUL 2 64 APR 2 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 AUG 28 64 81. 32 7.76 21. 95 41 JUL 2 64 APR 9 65 FEB 5 65 ,87.63 AUG 28 64 81. 32 7.76 22.32 42 JUN 26 64 APR 9 65 FEB 5 65 87.63 JUN 26 64 80.77 8.49 22.67 43 JUN 26 64 APR 15 65 APR 15 65 88.24 JUN 26 64 80.77 9.25 23.03 – -44-FEB -6-T6-DEC-3-76 –SEP 24-76-107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 23.38 45 FEB 6 76 DEC 10 76 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 23.73 46 FEB 6 76 DEC 17 76 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 24.08 47 FEB 6 76 DEC 23 76 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 24.42 48 FEB 6 76 DEC 31 76 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 24.77 49 FEB 6 76 JAN 7 77 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 25.11 50 FEB 6 76 JAN 14 77 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 25.44 51 FEB 6 76 JAN 21 77 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 25.78 52 FEB 6 76 JAN 28 77 SEP 24 76 107.83 JUN 11 76 98.63 9.33 26.11 Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 5 & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (9/26/9) AWTjb 3023.48 387.94 6327.95 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. No statement or expression 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or Ihe sohcltatlO1l of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In nO way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herelll Any acllOn to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own InvestlgallOn and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may taler take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSue, and such poslhon may be different from any views now or hereafter e)(pressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secunty mentioned herein IS available on request

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