Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1991

,——————————————————————————————————– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 16091987-2300 May 3. 1991 or ith tllow.J1oaround 3000. daily changes which seem. intuitively. unusual. are occurring. Are these changes trilly11lrgEi; – arethey-siinpliaproducCoCtt1e-affiage's higher level TO measure them properly. of course. they must be converted to percentage Changes. In the following table, we have taken each dally percentage change since the Dow was first computed in 1897 and have shown the number of trading days in each year since then that the percentage change of the Dow rell within various ranges between under 1 and over 5. . —-leaf VII H….I. H…I. H…I. H…I. I…H. ttlr HI .1.1.1..H…I HI -H–I- .)..5.1 len HI H…I- 1.-.3.1..H..I..H..I..)..51. IOU m 18 10 1 I 1 d2t 151 II 25 11 5 II 1m m !! a 0 0 0 mlita III II 25 1 0 2 lUi 51 II I 1 2 1100 !II 11 20 2 1 I 30 151 11 21 20 I 2 1m 102 11 51 25 II II jill 91 64 Ii II 15 15 1m III 54 2I I 1161 !II 12 1 0 1 0 1964 251 1 a a a a 1m !Ol 19 10 5 I 2 III! m n 200 1i01 m .2 21 5 2 1 1904 1m mm 51 51 I II 2 2 11 a0 ,110. !4l 51 I 1 0 liDJ Iii .1 II I 1 2 ,1101 m 11 1 a 0 dU m 11 2 1 a a 1110 m 55 11 1 0 I 1911 !IS !I 5 1 0 a lil2 m 11 2 I a a 1111 2H 41 1 1 1 a IU4 111 11 2 2 a 1 HIS III 11 22 5 1 0 IllJ 121 12 41 21 I II liH II! II 21 2 2 2 1m m 51 I a a a 1516 2U 14 II 1 0 a 1111 111 11 20 I I I ul8 lil II 11 12 5 2 1911 2U 55 11 aI 1140 m 11 I 1 4 2 1541 m 19 1 2 a 0 ,,,4u2 m II 211 20 Ia 21 a a 0 ,uU m 1 a60 ,dH m 21 1 I0 .uU !ll II I 2 1 ,LHI W 11 1 0 0 1m m II I a I a ,1m m 15 2 0 0 0 1911 !l! II 0 0 a 0 1911 201 II 2 00 19.1 m 12 0 0 0 0 1Il0 112 51 I 2 I 1 1\11 !l1 14 1 1 a 0 ,1112 !II 21 1 I 0 a 1911 151 19 10 I a 0 1111 III 15 It 2I lil1 1'2 15 15 1 a 0 1111 200 51 2 a a a 1m m 21 1 a 0 0 1111 III 50 5 0 1 0 1111 211 11 2 0 a a 1,16 m II 11 -dll—-r&r'-TfI93 w-r2'..22 I2 m2lin61;-.2II 15G2a0O 0 1110 II) IUI-m II 10 0 1 a —4i-8-0O—4 1111 III j\ I 1 a 0 .m!ll jJ I 1 1 a 1m III 61 II 1 1 I 1119 111 II 12 I 2 a 1920 III 16 21 I 2 a 1m 1122 2U '5 2Jl 51 I 1 ij aa aa ,1m 211 II I 1 0 0 ltH 251 II I 1 0 a dts 211 51 1 1 0 im m 51 I 1 1 0 ,1951 !56 21 a a a I 1152 2.0 11 0 0 a 0 1951 115 15 1 0 a ,lSI 211 11 2 a 0 I ,155 211 10 I a I 1 1151 !II 12 a 0 a 0 1151 !ll 11 I 10 dU !l4 II 1 0 0 0 ,1961 111 51 I 0 a a !!I4 20\ I! I 1 a a IhS m II 1 a a 1981 III 15 I 1 1 0 1111 151 51 21 10 1 I laa 181 19 11 1 1 1 !,inioI 201 10 I lBI 5t 11 I 1 a a 1 0 1111 114 14 2 1 a 0 1151 m 11 1 I 0 a 1m !II i8 I I a 1 11.0 !II 11 1 a a a – —– Briefly. the table reaffirms a conclusion we have iterated in this space. that is. that the market. during the twentieth century. has gone through four different eras in terms of volatility. The first such era lasted from the turn of the century through 1928. It saw. for the most part. over 200 trading days per year with a percentage change of under 1. Except for a few volatile years. the number of large changes during this period was fairly small. and in only six years did the number of changes in the 2 – 3 range exceed 20. The next period. one of highly increased volatility. encompassed 1929 and the 1930's. The ten year period 1929 – 1938 showed eight years when under-l changes numbered fewer than 200. and when 2 – 3 changes were' greater than 20. There were. in 1932, an incredible 35 daily changes of 5 or more. From 1939 until about 1970 there occurred a period during which wide changes were uncommon. The figures for that era speak for themselves. but It is interesting to note there were no fewer than nine years during Which a percentage change of greater than 2 never occurred. 'Finally. 'since 1970. the' number -of wide swings has indeed increased. In 13 of 22 years, changes of under 1 have been fewer than 200. and the number of 1 – 2 changes reached a level a good deal higher than it had been prior to 1970. If anything. in terms of average movement for the Dow, the present period appears much like the early part of this century. This, however, has been true for over 20 years and does not seem to be a phenomenon that has emerged recently. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (5/2/91) 2927.23 379.49 6068.83 AWT jb No slatement or expression 01 opinion or any other maner herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oHer or the solicitation of an oHer to buyer sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and InformatIOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securities menboned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISSue Delafield, Harvey, Tabe!llnc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to rts Investment adviSOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thIS or In any other Issue Fur1her lnformahon on any secUrity menlloned herein IS available on request