Viewing Year: 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 21, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 21, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - March 21, 1986
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091987-2300 March 21. 1986 Again the Dow Jones Industrial Average methodically moved ahead this week posting a new record tlQirlg H.higQ.on..r!)urIay()i1804. an event that isbecoming oGomlIlonplace no story reporting thIS cuts.. event was made on either therranf page of ihe'-lfe YorkTmes' or TheWaI1-Street -JournBi morrt- . – ing. Rather the investment community seems to be preoccupied with trying to measure the influence of buying and selling programs tied to arbitrage against stock index futures and options. Of additional interest today is the anticipation of the expiration date of options on individual stocks as well as options and futures on stock indexes. Past expiration dates have produced wide fluctuations in stock prices and volume. Within this framework some rather interesting upside price and volume action is being featured in the over-the-counter market. This can best be shown by placing these series m longer term perspec- tive. which we try to do in the chart below. The chart shows the monthly average price for the DJIA since October. 1973, the ratio of OTC volume to NYSE volume and the ratio of the NASDAQ OTC Industrial Index to the DJIA. DOW JONES INDUSTR!RL RVERRGE OTC VOLUME / NY5E VOLUME OTC lNOU5TlRLS / DJ1R lNOUSTlqLS The first ratio, the monthly average of NYSE volume compared to the monthly average of the OTC volume is instructive. What is perhaps most interesting is the recent rise in the GTe volume relative to the NYSE volume. For March, through thIS week, OTC volume has amounted to approximately 84 of NYSE trading. If this level holds it will be the third highest monthly figure on record and is close to the peak level of June, 1983 when the ratio reached over 88. This volume increase measured against the recent rise of the OTC Index suggests that the OTC market is again attracting investor interest. Currently selling at a low hlstorlCal valuation to the DJIA. the second ratio. OTC mdustrials di- vided by the Dow Industrials, is beginning to show signs of reversing the downtrend channel that has contained the ratio from the OTC mdustrial high in June 1983. As can be seen above the period from 1973 to mid-1977, OTC performance was similar to that of the DJIA, with the NASDAQ Index trading at around 10 of the Dow. Beginning in 1977 a long-steady relative Improvement developed with 'shortinterruptIOns in 1978 and 1980 and a flattening of the relative strength curve in 1981-1982. By June 1983 the monthly average price for the NASDAQ Index had reached 32 of the comparable figure of the Dow. Over this ten year period the Dow increase was 48 while the OTC average rose 310. Since the June 1983 absolute hIgh in the NASDAQ Index and the relative high in the OTC IDJIA ratio much of this gain has been given up. Currently the Dow is trading over 500 points above its November 1983 high while the NASDAQ Industrial Index approaches its June 1983 high of 408.40. Currently the OTC Index has declined to 21 of the Dow figure. It has not been this low since June 1980 and is lower than it was at the start of the bull market m August 1982. It is for these reasons, a further increase in the interest of OTe volume relahve to NYSE volume which we have quantified, coupled with a historically low valuatIOn relative to the DJIA. that it is still possible to suggest the speculative phase in the over-the-counter sector has not fully run its course. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) Cumulative Index (3/20/86) 1806.87 236.95 3062.41 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS. JR. DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. No sl81emenl or expresSion 01 OPinion or any other maUer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be directly or indirectly an olfer Of the soilc!tallon of an oller to buy or sell any security referred loor montloned The mal1er Is presented meraly for the convenlonce of thesubscnber While we believe the sources of our Information to berehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy tMmof nor of the statements made herGm Any action to be taken by the subSCriber Should be based on hiS own investigation and mformallon Delafield, Harvey, Tabel! Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers Of employees, may now have Of may later lake, positions or trades II'! respect to any securities mentioned II'! thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItion may be dltferent from anyvlcws now or herealter cpressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabell tnc which IS registered With tho SEC as an Investment adVisor, mayglva advice to ItS –Investment adVISOry and other CUSlOmers IndGpendcnlty of any slatemonlS made In thiS or In any other ISSue Further InformatIOn on any security mentroned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 27, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 27, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - March 27, 1986
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m …… TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURiTiES DEALERS INC (609) 9872300 March 27, 1986 For the third week in a row the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a record high, closing on Wednesday at 1810.70. Rotation of leadership is characteristic of the mature stages of most bull markets, and there. is. present!yJ,illlpleevtdence thatit…is ,ocquring in, tlJi,s. 9ne , .Thejollo.win,g .table list,s,1he. . . atwenty best and twenty 'worst performing of the 94 Standard & Poors'industry group indices on wee'klY- basis from the July 25 1984 low to March 19 1986, a period that fairly represents the latest upward leg of the current bull market and one clearly identified with the interest-sensitive sector of the stock market. For each of these groups we have also listed its rank and percentage change from the beginning of this year to date. The results are interesting. Included in the top twenty performers for this period are six groups (Savings & Loans, Property'Casualty Ins, Multi-line Ins, Banks-New York City, LIfe Insurance, Personal Loans) which are clearly associated with the above mentioned interest-sensitive sector of the market. These six groups from the beginning of this year. however, have in each instance underper- formed relative to the 94 S & P group universe. Although still up for the year, relative loss of momentum in this sector can be shown, and should continue to be monItored closely. Listed in the bottom twenty groups are seven energy-related groups which we know have all relatively performed poorly. Not only has this been true since the start of this last up leg of the advance but we find this also to be true even more recently since the first of the year. On the other hand, from the first of the year continued improvement in relative strength can be seen in the Auto, Building MaterIals and Brokerage stocks from the top twenty groups, while dram.atic improvement was shown in the Machine Tools and Steel groups in the bottom twenty groups. Contmued successful portfolio performance will be dependent on identifying these long term changes in group leadership as they evolve. M'.PERCENTAGE CHANGES THiU 1. 1986 FOR s,p INDUSTRY GROUP INDICES FROM JUl 25 1984 fROM DEC 31 1985 GROUP NANE TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. POLLUTION CONTROL RANI , CHGoo 1 162.809 2 1508.571 RANI 1 CHGoo 30.294 11 22.189 SAYINGS , LOAN CDMPAMIES PRO'-ERTtSUALI TY—'liisiiAHte MULTI-LINE INSURANCE BANlS(NEW YORI CITt RETAIL SPECIALTY ,3146.336 n . .n. – , 140.411 128.190 7 125.421 . 7 2&.45l., 12 z4.101r 19 22.061 Z9 18.190 15 22.232 ENTERTAINMENT FOODS EltLUDING GEN. MOTORS 8 122.523 118.458 10 116.400 53 13.061 27 19.041 2 34.298 BEYERAGES BREWERS 11 111.801 .0 n.ll1 TRUtlERS TOYS LIH INSURANtE 12 111.289 13 111.015 14 105.359 18 22.186 ,.22 20.821 11.850 BLDG MATERIALS 15 103.909 11 25.008 GAMING COMPANIES I. 101.840 11 18.339 BROItERAGE FIRMS 11 99.919 1. 23.612 BROADCAST MEDIA 18 98.825 .5 15.548 PERSONAL LO, .. S 19 95.150 72 to.02e. tONlAtHER METAL 'LASS 20 91.448 2' 19… 658 . OJ!A SLP SOD .5 62 .. 993 5. 58.30t 15.600 .1 11.511 AUTO TRutlS PARTS 15 29.1H .0 11.684 REAL ESTATE INYESTMENT TRUSTS 1. 29 .. 119 50 14.862 DIU INTEGRATeD INTERNlTIDNAL 17 28.853 82 2 .. 648 COAL 18 25.116 78 1.841 ELECTRONItS-INSTRUMEHTlTION 19 25.224 5. 12.565 ELECTRONICS(SEMItONDUCTDRS,tONPO 80 22.924 61 10.386 AtHINE TOOLS NETAlS IStELLANEOUS OIL tOJIPOSlTE ,– INYESTENT COMPANIES EXtLUDING U.S .. STeEL 81 22.053 82 Zl.18B 13 23.665 15.320 – 1. -8' 16.111 . 84 …… 15.958 ' . -85 15.909 85 -l.B59 -3.044 25.082 .. , CANADIAN OIL GAS 8. 12.245 93 -15.690 STEEL B1 10.861 1. 9.339 HOSPITAL JlANEMENT tONPAHIES 88 6.865 19 5.6') DIU INTEGRATED DOMESTIt 8. 4.500 '1 -9.586 'OLD COMUNltA1ION EQUIP,MfRS OIL WELL EQUIPMENT AND SERVICE OIL CRUDE PRODUCERS OFFSHORE DRILLING '0 1.336 n91 -8.44) -20 .. 642 93 -22.839 -59.168 8' -0 .. 492 8' -5.192 9Z -12.049 -1 … 339 -39.B51 c — .' DOW-Jones Industrials (4 00 p. m.) 1821. 95 S & P Composite (400 p.m.) 240.05 Cumulative Index (3/26/86) 2594.75 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expression of opmlon or any other matter herem contained IS Of IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenlcnccof the subscrrber While we believe the sources of our InfOrmation to be reliable, we In noway represent oruaranteethe accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the SUbscriber should be based on hiS own rnvesllgatlon and Informatron Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and lis offICers or employees, may now have or may later tae, positions or Irades In respect to any secuflhes mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such posItion may be eMlerent from any Views now or heteafler expressed m thIS or any other ISsue Delafield Harvey labell Inc, whICh IS regls/ered With the sec as an mestmenl adlsor, may gle adVICe tOltS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently ot any statements made m thiS or III any other Issue Further mlormatlonon any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 04, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 04, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - April 04, 1986
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 April 4, 1986 Last week we tried to identify the gradual rotation of leadership that appears to be taking place in the Standard & Poors industry group indices within the framework of an ongoing bull market. It was – – – pointed-out ….that. the –stron-g-long-t-erm-performance Lof,.,the….mterest-sensltive…. groups have, sincethe -first of the year, continued to move ahead but are starting to show signs of a loss of momentum. To put this long-term performance in proper perspective we have taken a monthly average of S & P groups that either constitute an inflation hedge or would be a disinflation beneficiary and have created two seperate indexes. Inflation hedge groups would include, among others, metals, gold, copper and the entire energy sector. Disinflation beneficiary groups would include groups such as airlines, drugs … foods and the interest-sensitive sector–banks, insurance and utilities. STRNDRRD &paaRS 500 INFLRTlaN HEDGE VS DISINFLRTlaN BENEFICIARY RRTla The chart above shows the monthly close of the S & P 500 and the ratio of the inflation hedge index to the disinflation index from January 1972 through March 1986. If the inflation hedge index is advancing more than the disinflation beneficiary index the ratio line is going up (1972-1980). Clearly it can be shown from the chart above that the inflation hedge sector has underperformed those groups which are disinflationary benefiCIaries since the start of the bull market-August 1982. But it is possible to go back even further than this date to identify the beginning of this significant change in the market environment, a change that has sustained itself to the present. The ratio reached its high at the end of 1980 coincident with the high in the S & P 500. This date by hindsight signaled the peak of the ratio of inflation hedge stocks relative to those stocks that are beneficiaries of disinflation. It was during the subsequent correction in the market to the August 1982 low that the inflationary-hedge index turned down. Tlus occurred while the disinflationary beneficlary index continued to move ahead in the face of a 15 dechne m the S & P 500. The final confirmation of this significant internal change came when the market rallied dramatically in AugusL 1982, but failed to include the inflation hedge sector. Currently. from the ratio peak of December 1980, the inflation hedge sector has declined with minor interruptions approximately 30 thru March 1986. The disinflation beneficiary index on the other hand has increased 185 to date. This is not to suggest that an immediate switch into the disinflation beneficiary sector was warranted shortly after the peak in the ratio in December, 1980. Rather we would suggest an examination of the ratio over time would reflect the gradual internal change within the market. By the August 1982 low this change should have been clearly identified with appropriate shifts in weighting made in order to participate in the advance which was to come. Where are we now in terms' of this ratio The raho based on data available from 1960 to date cur- rently is at the lowest level since April 1972, the historical low for the series. Although it seems likely to expect further strength in the disinflahonary beneficiary sector of the market in the immediate future, it would seem wise. as we discussed last week to monitor series of this type that attempt to measure shifts in market sentiment. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00 noon) 1765.09 S & P 500 (1200 noon) 231. 69 Cumulative (4/3/86) 2611. 93 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVERY. TABELL, INC. NO statement or cpreSSlon of OplnlO'1 or any other matter herem contained IS or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or indirectly, an offer or the sohCltatlon 01 an cHer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The mailer IS presented merely tor the convenience of the subscriber WhllclIIe beheve the sources of our information lobe reliable we In no way represent Of guarantee the accuracy theroof nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be tak.en by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc. as a corporation and Its aUlcefs or employees may now have, or may laler take pOSitions or trades In respect \0 any securities mentioned In thiS 01 any future Issue and such POSition may be different Irom any views nowor herealter epressed In thiS or any other ISSUO Oetallolcl Harvey Tabell Inc whIch IS regIstered with the SEC as an rnvestment adVIsor may gIve aovlcetorls rnveslment adVIsory and other customers mdependently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herem 15 avallabte on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 11, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - April 11, 1986
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9872300 April 11, 1986 In the short span of six trading sessions the Dow Jones Industrial Average has corrected itself eighty-five points from its recent all-time high of 1821. 73 closing on Tuesday at 1735.51. This correc- – tipn L of4-73'-ist.h. largst-peJcentage'decline-in4h-DJIA- in well- Qvercayeardating-back—to' December -,0.. – – zo.-1984. The market as of this writing spnt the remainder of the week trying to recover part of thIS loss. With new highs in the market averages commonplace a minor correction of this type does not make us reverse our constructive view of the market. However it does afford us the opportunIty to stop and reexamine the position of the market in the context of cycle theory. The chart below should not be unfamiliar to readers of this letter. This updated version shows the present position of the current maJor market cycle which we believe began on August 12, 1982 at 102.42 and, interrupted by the October, 1982July, 1984 intermediate-term correction, carried to 238.97 as of March 27, 1986, a 133.32 advance. The history and shape of the eight previous cycles are shown by the horizontal hnes at the top of the chart. The lines are drawn to the same horizontal timescale as the chart itself, and each cycle is measured from low to low. The high for each cycle is shown by a hash mark along with Its date and the total percen- tage advanc2e'CllLCLEo-PEIRTIlrJOrrrlCrDnW-HnIGTHY-HDVrRrNYCt'.)–'PERKrCInCC,E,ORIE JUN 1949-SEP 1953 SEP 1953-DCl IS57 OCl IS57-JUN 1962 JUN 1962-0Cl 1966 OCT 1966-MRY 1970 MRY 1970 OCl 1974 OCl 1974 MR 1978 MRR IS7B RUG 19B2 (48.051 ( 73.14) (119 02) 96.75) I JRN 1953 RUG IS56 86.351 II DEC IS61 79.781 I FEB IS66 I NOV 1968 73.53) JRN 1973 SEP 1976 (61 70) I NDV ISBO .- (68.57 CURRENT CfClE 1133 321 t61.66 OCT 11l1liE'—'!!.h JUN 11llll2'-''''''''''''L.11C I DECLINES !F f'VEVM 6!AA ItRf.E1S fR0I1111E ClJ!9Em CTCLE'S 11(;11 The average length of these cycles, measured from low to low has been 45 months. The present cycle from August 1982 to date is now over 43 months old. There have been instances of cycles in the 50-55 month range. which would leave us less than one year for a typical cycle completion. Proponents of the four-year cycle are being tested because. since we are measuring a cycle from low to low, there is very httle time left for the necessary correction of the advance to take place. True, the percentage of the total length of a cycle spent in an advancing stage has been measured as much as 90 of a gLven cycle. However, taklng the maximum length of the advancing cycle and the maximum length of the cycle itself from our historical experience. the present cycle would have a lifetime that could carry into the fall of 1986. Clearly the four-year cycle is facing a problem–time is running out. The recent action of the DJIA could help solve this problem. After breaking out on the downside from a short-term top the Dow corrected to the low 1700 support area. If, as has been repeatedly done in the recent past, the market reverses itself and goes to a new high then the bull market is back in gear, and the four year cycle problem remains unresolved. However if the market were to begin to back and fill in this 1800-1700 area a potential head and shoulders formation could develop, the recently tested 1700 support area representing the left shoulder. At this time it would be foolish to place any bearish importance to a pattern that has not yet evolved. However because of the recent wide vohtile swings In the averages this could happen sooner rather than later. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 noon) 1795.63 S &P Composite (1200 noon) 237.32 Cumulative Index (4/10/86) 3094.15 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, lNC. No statement or expression of opinion or any other mailer herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be dlreclivor IndireCtly, an oHer or the sohcltahon 01 an olfer to buy or sell any security rcferred to or menloned The matter IS presented merelv for the convcmence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable. we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statcmens made herein Any action to be taen by the SUbSCflber should be based on his own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have, Of may later tae, pOSitions or trades in respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dlfferenl Irom clny Iews now or hcroaJtcr epressed In thiS or any otller ISSUO Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to IS Investment adVisory and other cuSlomers Independently of any statements mllde In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any sccuntv mentioned horein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - April 18, 1986
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– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC, MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 April 18, 1986 The advance of the stock market was again quickly reestablished this week as the Dow Jones lndus'-'trial Averag p5E'Jed anotheE nw,!ll!tim-clsinghigh of-185 03-on'l'hursdayA-s- was dlSCll s-se-cl,.last''.M-….,,J-, week in this letter, the possibility of the minor 4.73 correction. the largest decline in the DJIA since December 1984, potentially being a precursor to the formation of a potential head and shoulders. has been erased. We have reproduced below the charted history of daily and weekly breadth indices SInce the August 1982 low. The classIc interpretation of these indicators, based on the number of advancing and declining stocks for each day or week, suggests that when succeSSIve new highs in the Dow are unaccompanied by new highs in breadth, a divergence condition exists, indicating a potential correction in the market to follow. The action of the two indices between June 1983 and January 1984 is a recent example. Dot i DRILY BRERDTH INDEX WEEKLr BRERDTH INDEX Conversely, extended periods where breadth outperforms the Dow are normally suggestive of bull markets. The behavior of the two breadth indices from the July 1984 low is important to review. Since then there have been a serIes of minor peaks in the Dow, followed shortly by new highs. Each of these peaks has been accompanied by a new high in both daily and weekly breadth indicators. Even more significant is the level of the dmly and weekly breadth index in relatIon to its peak of June 1983 and January.1984 .. As can be seen, both.of these highs have been exceeded by daily and we-ekly breadth erasing entirely any potential negative divergence condition on those indices. ThIS means that the signal given by the June 1983/January 1984 divergence and the subsequent 15.59 correctlon was completed at the July 1984 low. The record of daily and weekly breadth to date continues to impressIvely accelerate into 1986. Currently daily and weekly breadth action remains positive confirming recent new hIghs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00 noon) 1858.26 S & P Composite (12 00 noon) 243.20 Cumulative Index (4/17/86) 2645.31 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, INC. No statement or epreSS10n 01 opinion or any other matler herein contained 15 or 1510 be deemed 10 be dlrectryo! mdlrectly an offeror thesohcltatlon of an offer lobuyorsell any securl\yrelerred tOOl mentioned The matter IS presented merely for Ihe convenience 01 the subscriber While we believe the sources of our information 10 be reliable. we In no …ay represent or guarantee the accuracy lhereal nor of the stalements made herCIfl Any action 10 be talcn by the subscriber should be based on hIs own investigation and Information Oelafll,ld. Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employocs. may now have, or may lator take. pOSItions or trades In respccllO any securities mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views nOw or h(lJcafter epressed In thts or any othor Issue Delafield Harvey label! tnc which IS registered wllh the SEC as an Inestment ad\sor, may give advlco 10 liS Investment adVISOry and olher customers wdependenUy of any stalements made In thiS or In any other Issue Furthor information on any security mentioned herem IS avarlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - April 25, 1986
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (6091987-2300 April 25, 1986 The internal health of the stock market remains good. History tells us that bull markets, once established, spend most of their life moving ahead with very little in the way of significant correction in the process. The current position of the market, it seems to us is reflecting nothing more than a typical pattern that has tended to repeat itself in all previous markets for which there is a historical record. There are exceptions to this rule and, of course, no two markets behave alike. As the table below shows by comparing the recent bull market performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the OTC Industrial Average from the 1982 low to date, we find that both indices have appreciated approximately 130. Closer examination shows the OTC index achieved this performance in the short period of 219 trading days while the S & P 500 has taken over four times as long to achieve the same percentage advance. In other words the OTC Index reached its alltime high in June 1983 and has spent the remaining three years relatively underperforming the S & P 500. —JA–r- -H 13 02 10 10 d3 7 2 ti4 4 1 86 4 21 db .P 5JO AVElA;E ——103.5 172.65 17.S2 244.74 44.74 ——- t1ANGE 0.00 o6.l3 -14.3. &5.57 O.OJ J AT t ——-ti 1J ,2 0 ,, d3 7 , 84 L db 4 l6 OfC I'O Al/flAc ——- 171.10 40Q. 'ttl l50.10 191 O H7.90 —- — IwtiA.Nut O.OU 129.dj -jo.76 j9.10 O.OJ – — – — — – — – – – – The following table, however, suggests that this action may be changing. It shows the close for the S & P 500 and the OTC Industrial Index for the past ten trading days through Thursday. It also shows the net percentage change in each indicator and the net difference between the two. The OTC average has outperformed the S & P 500 on eight of the ten days, reflecting a positive increased in- terest in secondary and tertiary stocks. The net result is that ti1ere has now taken place a fairly sub- stantial rally from the recent April 7th low in the OTC Index of 7.69 verses 5.86 in the S & P 500. OA rE APR 11 B&6 AP 14 US6 APR 15 1186 .Ptl 16 186 . J.7 1i tlb AP 1 B ljlo APR 21 1;00 AP I I IHo APK j lIH6 PR 24 !'l8b SP jOU U5.9/ 2H.ld 37.73 'L42.2..! 243.03 22.3d 244.14 42.4L 241.7S 242.02 , CH .NGc -0.20 a 5.3 lJ.1J 1 9 0.33 -U.ll 0.91 -0.15 -0.28 v.i! TC iNOS 382.0 3d5.20 306.70 394.30 33 .40 35.9U 396.40 395.60 393.90 397 .. 0 CHAN;;E OIFHRENCS 0.60 0.80 0.60 O.lL 0.3-1 0.20 1.91 O.Oti 0.53 C.lO -0.13 0.14 0.13 -u.o5 -O.lJ 0.75 -0.43 -J.l' 1.0L 0.90 – This relative strength improvement in the Over-the-Counter issues certainly is tentative at this stage. but it does constitute the best relative action in this sector in a long while–the index itself is iust nowapproaching its June 1983 high of 408.40. Nor can it be taken that- the average secondary stock is necessarily an attractive purchase candidate at this time. However since the correction in the OTC Index through July 1984 and the subsequent rally to the present levels, many individual stocks have completed base-building phases and are positioned techmcally to indicate higher prices. The general market is in search of new leadership to sustain its advance. A proposition could be developed that the Over-the-Counter sector will provide this leadership. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00 noon) 1822.91 S & P Composite (12 00 noon) 242.72 Cumulative Index (4/24/86) 3174.65 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, INC. No statement or epress!on 01 OPinion or any other matter herein contained IS or Is 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the soltcltatlon of an offer to buyor sell any securtty referred loor mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our information 10 be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy the.eof norof the statements made herein Any aCllon to be taen by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Oelalleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its olliccrs or employees, may now have, Of may later take pOSitions or Hades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be dlfferonl1rom any views nO\lor hernalter cpressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey labell Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advice to lIs Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In this or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned heraln IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 02, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 02, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - May 02, 1986
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— — ——-..,.—————————–,;—-. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9872300 May 2, 1986 We are attempting, this week, once more to take up the cudgel following a two-month enforced medIcal absence. As has been the case in the past when we have spent long periods away from our desk ,-we..d!vg triedto …follow ,.,the ,.-mar-ket as.,.closely .. as … circumstances -allowed-. -T-he ,major impression– which emerges from that inspection is that very little seems to have changed since we entered the hospital in early March. This remains true despite the 42-point, Wednesday declIne in the Dow, WhICh found itself hailed in many headlines as the largest decline in hIstory. The above characterization, without qualification, appeared in a number of quarters WhICh should have known better. The drop of 41. 91 in the DJIA was indeed the deepest ever for that average in terms of points, a statistic which (no pun intended) is pointless. As we and our fellow technicians have been lamenting for years, the significance of a decline can only be measured in percentage terms, and in those terms the Dow's 2.3 drop can hardly be considered a disaster. Over the past 60 years, in fact, there have occured no fewer than 362 one-day declines of greater magnitude. Since there have, in those 60 years, been 16,304 trading days, the average expectation is that such a decline should appear no fewer than 1 day in every 50. This should hardly be the stuff of headlines. We have, for what it is worth, a suggestion as to how one ought to think about the large num- bers of points which have characterized recent market swings. Subconciously, our thinking about the market is probably largely conditIOned by the eighteen years ended 1982, durmg which the Dow remained confined in a trading range whose average level was roughly half today's. Wednesday's 40-point drop, therefore, has about the same significance as a 20-point decline in terms of most in- vestor's psychological conditioning. It is probably therefore appropriate, in considering future mar- ket swings, to divide them by two before becoming wildly excited about their significance. In any case, the 10-day drop from the April 21st high appears, so far at least, to be nothing more than a loss of momentum, and a minor one at that. As our colleague, Bob Simpkins, pOInted out in this space while he was ably filling in for us, the April peak in the Dow was confIrmed by both daily and weekly breadth indexes. Our readers are aware that such breadth peaks tend to -..lead peakill-'-Jhe-Dow-by intervals, measured minimally in months and often.in years. Other .statI.s–'-,I tics confirm the market's continued upside momentum. As recently as February 18th, 452 daIly new highs were scored–just about equalling the 454 posted a year ago. There has been some deteriora- tion since (only 332 new highs on April 16th), but new highs historically have peaked as much as 2 years before the end of a bull market. It thus appears that there is little cause for alarm from this sector at the moment. Indeed, despite Wednesday's sharp drop, the market continues to set one peculiar record. To date, 351 trading days have passed since the Dow has seen a 5 correction, the last one having ended in December, 1984. The upswing now has become the third longest in history without such a correction, having surpassed the December, 1953-January, 1955 perIod, and is now exceeded only by the 410-day advance of December, 1957, – August, 1959 and the 370-day rise following the Kennedy assasination low of November, 1963. About the worst thing that can be said about the recent action it that it may have laid the groundwork for the development of future vulnerability. The average has now returned to the 1800- 1770 level within which it spent most of the early part of April. Further trading in this region, followed by a decisive break below 1770, might eventually suggest a correctIon approaching intermediate- term in scope, but such evidence is not yet present. Nor does it seem, to date at least, to be present in individual stock patterns. There exists at the moment I according to our own reading, a surprisingly small number of tops, most of these cen- tered in the financial area, suggesting perhaps only that the recent rather amazmg bond-market rally may be in need of some consolidation. Indeed, what may emerge from the current downswing may well be a shift in leadership rather than a decline. The improving short-term action of over-the-counter, secondary issues was noted in this space last week. Such issues could well emerge as upside leaders once the present correction is complete. The maturity of the present advance is a fact w.,ll known to the readers of . thIS !etter, 'fll1 It . IS indeed possible that the action of the past ten days may constitute some erly, tentatIve steps m the process of unwinding that upswing. Before this takes place. howeve, eVldence a good deal more significant than that provided by a miniscule week-and-a-half drop WIll have to accumulate. Dow Jones Industrial Average (12 00 noon) 1784.47 S & P Composite (12 00 noon) 235.61 Cumulative (5/1/86) 2679.25 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, INC. No statement or aprCSSlon 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, an ofter or Ihe SoliCitation 01 an ollello buy or sell any security referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable, weln no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor 01 the statements made herein Any aCllon to be taken by the subscrtber should be based on hiS own investigatIon and Infomallon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelt Inc, as a corporatIon and ItS officers or employees, may now have, 01 mav latCf tae poSitions Of trades In respecl to any securities mentioned In thiS or anv future Issue, and such position may be dlflercnt lrom any views now or hereafter e'pressed 111 this or any other Issue Delafield Harvey labelt Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thIS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secullty mentIoned herein IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 09, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 09, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - May 09, 1986
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION O.F SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 May 9, 1qR6 We took exception. in last week's letter. to the recent tendency on the part of many market reporters to attach exaggerated importance to the large number of points by which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently tended to move back and forth. There have. for example, been 1 threeDJJAll1oyesofgreae ,than. 30pointsin tRe .month ,of-April,.and- there were. four such il1oves-I du ring March. Since the previous record for the number of lO-point moves in an entire year was six, scored in 1982, the imtIal impression is that recent market behavior has been extremely volatile. We noted that this false impression is solely attributable to the fact that the Dow, at around 1800, IS around twice the level where It spent about twenty years prior to 1982. Changes measured in points therefore, tend, qUIte simply, to be twice as great. Yet, it may well be asked. are there not a number of new factors in today's market which contribute to increased volatility One obvious such factor would be the emergence of futures- related buy and sell programs. the putative existence of which has lately become everyone's favorite explanation as to whv the market suddenly rocketed in one direction or another. There exists. however, no apparent evidence that buy and sell programs have had any effect whatsoever on overall market volatility. STANDARD DEVIATION OF DRILl LOG CHRNGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MONrHL1 1926 – DRfE The chart above first appeared In this space In December. 1982. after the upsIde explosion in the second half of that year engendered comments on volatility similar to those we are heanng today. The chart, qmte simplv. for each month from 1926 to date. measures the standard deviation from the mean of the daily log changes in the Dow for that month. Those familiar with statistics will understand the arcane language of the previom. sentence. Others need only to know that a log change IS similar to (but more accurate than) a percentage change. and that the standard deviation is simply a measure of variabilitv. The chart, updated to laClt month. continues to show what it showed four years ago. I! mdICates. first of all. that market volatilitv, not unexpectedly.peal,ed in the 19291932 era, subsequently declined to the early 1940's and has more or less remained constant ever since. The standard deviation for most months has averaged around .5 (the scale is multiplied hv 100) which means that most changes tended to fall within one-half of one percent of theIr mean. There have been, since the 1940's, occasional peaks above the 1.5 level–most recently in 1982–and these have turned out to he useful indIcators of market bottoms. Since early 1983, however, the monthly stanrlard deviation has ranged between .5 and a bit over I, which is almost precisely the range that has characterized the-decade-and-a-half since 1970. In terms of average volatility. therefore, nespite appearances to the contrarv. there has been absolutely no evident change in market beh'lvior for the past 15 years. Dow Jones Industrial Average (1200 noon) 1781.37 S & P 500 (12 00 noon) 236.77 Composite (5/8/86) 2694.12 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, INC. NO slatemenl or e…presSlon at opll'1lon or any other matter herem contamed IS or Is to be deemed to be directly or IIldlrectly an orler or the soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any security fe!errecl 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our mformahon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thernel nOf 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taren by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Inyestlgatlon and information Delaheld, Harvey, labell tnc, as a corporation and 115 of/lcers or employees may now have, or may laler take, positIOns or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any fulure Issue, and such pOSition may be dillerent from any YleWS now or heleaf\er expressed In thiS or any other Issue Oelafleld Harvey label! tnc ,WhiCh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 liS mveSlment adVisory and other customers mdependent!y of any statements m3de In thiS or In any other ISSue Further Inform3tlon on any security mentioned herem IS avallabte on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 16, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 16, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - May 16, 1986
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11 ISUE Il..Il.. ' S (jl1j IRl IEII 1l..IEIIIIlEIRl 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 r– May 16, 1986 In what seems like a previous incarnation (although it was only last February), we devoted a series of three letters to outlining what we thought were some rather amazing parallels between both stock-market and economic behavior in the 1920's and in the lQ80's. This discussion was ——interrupteir bv our recent h'iJ'SPiWStliV7and we woum.. liketobeg- oadersl fnaulgto– — —,. take it up once again so as finally to get our thoughts on this subject off our chest. The original letters, it will 1)e recalled, focused on the period August, 1921 – February, 192fi and its similarity to the time frame of August, 1982 to date. Both periods featured stock markets which advanced by about the same amount, although the current one remains just a bit short of its predecessor and would have to move ahead to around 2,000 to equal it. Both advances featured mid-course interruptions–Novemher, 1983 – July, 1984 in the present case– which could be characterIzed as conohriation phases rather than full scale corrections. Both markets were characterized by similarities in maior features of the economic environment, notahly falling inflation and a decline in interest rates. We pointed out, rather emphatically, that todav's market had not yet duplicated the entire cycle, which ended so unhappily in 192Q. In order to do that, we would have, at some point, to undergo another relatively mild consolidation phase, of perhaps a year in length, following the recent high or, more probably, a subsequent high later to be reached .. That consolidation would have to be followed by an upswing which, if it duplicated that of 1927'1929 exactly, would reach the 4,000-5,000 level. Such a level would be attained, if it were like 1927-29, with little in the way of economic or corporate-profits improvement to justify it. Since 1929 occured over 50 years ago, economic and stock-market historians have had ample opportunity for detailed examination and consequent self-flagellation. We are all now, with the virtue of 20/20 hindsight, fully aware that 1929's villain was speculative mania facilitated and fueled by rising levels of margin debt. We have, in the intervening half-century, developed an incredibly sophisticated array of tools and indiclltors to monitor and control the emergence of similar conditions. Yet one of the fascinating attributes of the stock market is that, while II–f—tlfid-erl-yin-g-..z.beh&vior—pa-tt-erns-remain-censtant-;-su-rface….manifestations-'change-'-vadically-Aovertime. — Today's analyst who is waiting for impenriing doom to be signaled by the reemergence of the cab-driver/odd-lot speculator is due, we suspect, to wind up being sandbagged from behind. It is only necessary to recall all of the obvious changes that have taken place over the past five stock-marlet decades. During that period the individual investor has been totally supplanted as the major factor in equity-market activity by financial-intermediary institutions which now tend to account for somewhere around three-quarters of all trading. This is at total variance with the picture sixty yellrs ago when, even at the height of the hunger for common stock, the Institutional investor managed to remain largely aloof. One needs only to look at margin-deht statistics. Such deht today constitutes iust over one percent of the total value of all listed stock. In 1929, although the figures are not exactly comparable, It was probably over twelve percent. IJItimate liquidation of this debt was one of the principal causes of the 1929-2 debacle, Yet, as we suggested ahove, underlying factors, even in very different markets, tend to remain the same. The problem with 1929 and its aftermath was a stock market fueled by excessive credit. What it is necessarv to ask ourselves is what form a credit overstimulation might take today. The answer, provided by the history of the past few years, could not be clearer. That form could well turn out to be the credit-financed takeover. In terms of market effect there is absolutely no difference between an individual's horrowing to purchase shares and a corporation borrowing in order to buy an entire company. Both phenomena possess the potential for being unwound rather unpleasantly. Once more, a caution. We are making no claim whatever that the level of takeover activity to date has been either excessive or dangerous. Indeed impressive statistical evidence can be adduced that such is not the case. This could well be one of the reasons we have so far witnessed a stock market which has advanced only a fraction of the 1921-1929 amount. It is not hard to see, however, that further credit expansion, having the effect of additionally reducing the supply of common stock, could indeed lead to a subsequent contraction not unlike that of the early 1Q30's. We shall devote one further issue to discussing the possible consequences thereof, and how they mlgh t he avoided. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL AWT vfl DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 noon) 1759.67 S & P 500 (1200 noon) n2.36 Cumulative Index (5/15/86) 3116.21 No statement or eyDteSSIQn 01 Opinion or any other mailer herem contamed IS or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrectly an olter or the soliCitation of an olfer to buy or sell any security ret erred loor mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the conventence of the SubscHber While we belIeve the sourcesol our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norol the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Informa1\on Delalleld, Harvey, Tabel1 tnc, as a corporation and ItS ollicers or employees may now have or may latertal\ll, poSl\lons or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be olfterent 110m any views now or hefCaher epr(!ssed In thIs or any other Issue Delatle!d, Harvey, Tabell Inc which Is registered wllh the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 Its mvestment adVisory and olhor customers mdependentty 01 any statemCflts made In thiS or In any otner Issue Further Information on any secuflly mentioned herOin IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1986

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1986

Tabell's Market Letter - May 23, 1986
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 May 23, 1986 11./1', – \., DU4 been .-tr.y-ing–to–accomplish…in. recent- maket-comment has consiste(i of'—-;;.. trying to set apparently unusual price behavior into perspective. We have, for example, been trying to point out that seemingly large moves (Thursday's 31-point rise in the Dow for example) are a perfectly normal phenomenon with the Dow now in the area of 1800. Likewise, the market's behavior over the past couple of months may appear unusual, and therefore, perhaps portentious. Is is certainly arguable, however, that it consists of nothing more than a return to normality following more than a year of action which, however pleasant, has been somewhat unique. The uptrend which characterized most of 1985 was noteworthy both for extent and persistence. A stock-market chart has two dimensions, price and time, and a trend tends to gain importance by covering large distances in either dimension. Thus a market which goes up a great deal quite obviously creates a trend which is increasingly noticable. The same is true for markets which proceed in the same direction for a long period of time. It can hardly be gainsaid that, until lately, the Dow has moved up sharply; it was under 1300 as recently as last September. It has also done so persistently. We have lately been pointing out that the last five-percent correction occured in December, 1984. Likewise, since the September, 1985, low, new highs have been almost a daily event, with the longest interval between such a phenomenon eighteen days in January. These records have now been broken. It is currently twenty-three days since the DJIA attained its all-time peak on April 21st, and we have finally achieved a five-percent retracement with the Dow's close at 1758.18 on Monday. All this has produced a pattern shown in its five-point, point-and-figure figuration at rlt;'-'-'. ' vnu ;;'!. 1U 1 'w example of what often 'no P & F analysis difficult. The pattern, under normal circum- stances, might appear ominous, possesing many of the attributes of a complex head-and- shoulders top. The problem is in the two downward spikes, to 1725 in early April, and the recent downthrust to 1755. Both of these were of course quickly recovered, the last one by Thursday's and today's rally. The presence of the spikes may indicate that the formation consists of a whole series of individual patterns and is, therefore, of little significance. On the other hand, it is often advisable in such cases to ignore the downward thrusts and simply interpret the pat- tern as a conventional top with a low around 1770. If this is the case, a decline of inter- mediate proportions, very possibly to the low 1600's becomes a possibility. This again needs to be put into perspective, however, as it would constitute, on a percentage basis. a fall of 12-13, hardly disastrous given the market's 1985 rise. Furthermore even were this most pessimistic interpretation to be the correct one, and this is, as noted. by no means yet certain. it would certainly run out all existing downside objectives and leave the market poised for a further advance. AWTvfI Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 noon) 1830.85 S & P 500 (1200 noon) 241.41 Cumulative Index (5/22/86) 3146.07 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL, INC. No statement or erpresslon of OplnlQn or any othel matter herem contained IS or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or Indirectly. an oUer or the solicitation 01 an offer to buyar sell any secunly referred tOOf mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor Ihe convenience of the subscriber While we behevelhe sources 01 QUlin/ormation to be reliable. we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor olthcstatememsmado he'em Any aCllon)o be laxen bl' the sl.Ibscllher Should be based on his own JnYE'stlgalJon and mformaflOfI Delafield, Harvey, labe)) Inc, as a corporation and lIs officers or employees, may now havj) or may Laler take, POSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSll!on may be dil!eron! from any views nowor hClea/tcr cpressed In thiS or any other Issue De!afleld Harvey labell Inc which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, mayg!ve atlvlceto ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 anv statements made In thiS 01 10 anv other Issue Further Informallon on any security menlloned heroin IS available on reQuest

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