Viewing Year: 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - March 06, 1970
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Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 6, 1970 After extending its advance through early Thursday, the market ran into mild profit- taking and declined slightly in late Thursday's and Friday's trading. This action was hardly surprising considering the fact that sharp rise had left most indicators tn a somewhat overbought position and that short-term objectives on the popular averages had been reached at the mid-week highs. Expected action at this point would be a period of backing and filling at, roughly, the 780-800 level in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Ability to broaden the present potential base in that area and to then resume the advance would be constructive — probably ind1cating that the 1969-1970 bear market had finally been laid to rest. While to the market, trading in the first two months in 1970 has brought about an umisual divergence -in indiv1dual stock patterns-.– A -great many of the issues which defied the bear market have formed potential tops and look as though they migh finally receive their comeuppance. Meanwhile, issues that posted major bottoms last July, and have been basing ever since, now appear to have an upside potential which far outweighs their downside risk. One such issue is reviewed below. Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long-Term Debt Common Stock Sales-1970-Est. Sales-1969 LOEW'S, 34 3/4 0. 13 1/3 0.40/0 590,000,000 14,438,263 shs. 800,000,000 554,000,000 Earn. Per Sh. 1970-Est. Earn. Per Sh. 1969 2.75 1. 83 1. 71 INCORPORATED Ten years makes a big difference in the life of an firm and in the life of Loew's, the last ten years have made an enormous difference, for the better. During the early part of those ten years, the com pany underwent si changes centering around the buil n theaters f!fl ho e s. ining and operating of e ently, Loew's inte- rests d new fields consumer products . ding. I d, oducts area, the merger with er of Kent Cigarettes and other -MkCRange-1969-'r970-' the country. This products in future. ws fitcient introduction of further new consumer s me active in home building in a big way. Construct- ion of three new co o already is underway in West Los Angeles, South San Francisco and Yorba 'n a, 1fornia, and plans are tn progress for the development of several more, inc1udin recently announced for a community development on Staten Island, New York Cit . This would appear to be excellent timing on Loew' s part. Residential construction has been drastically curtailed in recent years due to high mortgage rates brought about by tight money. With interest rates likely to head lower in the months that lie ahead, a strong pickup in construction is anticipated. The demand for new homes is at a peak level and is not likely to be satisfied until the late 1970' s. This strong position to produce and market a wide variety of goods and services, such a entertainment, foods and beverages, consumer products, transient lodgings, and permanent housing, yonsiderably broadens its earnings base. In a well-defined uptrend in recent years, earnings are expected to advance even more dramatically in the years immediately ahead. For the fiscal year ending August 31, 1970, net 1S estimated at 2.75 a share, up from 1.83 last year (1. 71 fully diluted). Revenues-will advance sharply to around 800 million, from-' 554 milllon last year and 166 million the prevlOus year. Most of this improvement stems from Lorillard. . d. Although health scares are likely to recur from time to time, the long-term trend on ci- garette sales appears to remain upward. Sizeable savings should result from cessation of radio and TV advertising as of January 1, 1971 and the leading brands at that time, of which Kent is one, should remain leaders afterwards since competitors also will not be allowed to advertise except in printed material. When radio and TV advertising was halted in England, sales continued to move ahead and were not affected by the prohibition. Technically, an area of congestion has been formed in the 30-40 region. This base indicate an upside potential of 46-54 w1th a longer-term goal readable in the mid-60's. On the downside there is good support at 32-28. Already in the Price Appreciation section of our Reco mended List, Loew's, Incorporated, is again recommended for purchase. Dow-Jones Ind. 784.12 ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER Do– — – . . Is ar C lttl'r 15 ))U 1 or coovenlPnre 'l.ntl lIlformn1ion an,1 !lot lin offl to sell or ,\ t.l buy ,Ill) -''I'urllu, (1I.,('u,,.I The In- formation wns obtained from sourctf, we lwhcH' to be employee,\ may have an mtereBt Ln or purchru,.. ,Lntl st-1I the hut we do Ilut J.,.Ultr,ll1tce It!. l\(curac) W I.ton &. Co, lor nnd lts officerll, dLrectors or r('l red to hcr(Ln.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - March 13, 1970
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange . and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER March 13, 1970 The best way 'of getting the right answers is to ask the right questions, and this is as true of the stock market as anything 'else. Ofttimes one stock market question will be un- answerable while, at the same time, the answer to another question is quite clear. The pre sent is a case in point. One way of viewing the stock market is to ask whether the popular market averages are about to go up or down. This question, unfortunately, is not one which can be answered with any degree of certainty at the moment. As we have pointed out in recent issues of this letter, some constructive developments have taken place in tlie past few weeks. The intermediate- termdow-ntrend-f-rom-the-November high of 8'71. swing from the January 30th lows remains in effect, and the correction of this short-tenn advance has so far been orderly and characterized by relatively light volume. On the other hand, short-term objectives have been reached and most market averages are now in an are of heavy overhead supply. As we have pOinted out repeatedly in the past, it is going to be the market's reaction to this supply which will determine the direction of the next move. If we persist, therefore, in simply trying to guess the market's direction, we are un- likely — immediately at any rate/– to get a clearcut answer. If, however, we ask another question, i. e. '. where is market/leadership going to come from and what sbcks are likely to be the best ones to own for mid-1970 — recent market action has been providing us with a rather decisive answer. Fornalysis of individual chart patterns points clearly to the con- clusion that we are entering one of those phases of changing leadership which periodically characterizes the !parket. Lrt us see if we can 'blittle bit further. 1969 was, as.no one needs to be told, a rather poor r et, for a great many stocks, the 1969 bear was non-existent. e a Ie, at 290 in early 1969 and above 380 in January 1970. Other computer stoc d eve re dramatic advances,and similar performances werl not uncommon s supply, franchising and other industries. The applicabll investment cliche e ain performance became visible -.-. -earnings-growth-. . ,),e -of-uncertainty-for -the-economy,and th companies to own, were going to grow almost under any conceivable se't oVec rtomi 1 The concept has e fine thing, but at ! e 'n overvalued in relati/o 0 the 't a ed of late. First of all, earnings growth is a very .n e issues with the fastest-growing earnings can become cks. Secondly, as a number of fourth-quarter reports have shown, some of ear i growth which was so obviously visible in 1969 has become, all of a sudden, inviible ,indeed, non-existent. The end of the infatuation with growth-at- any-price is be,bming manifest in the technical patterns of a great many issues and, as was pOinted out last/week, many stocks which advanced sharply in 1969 have not only declined dramatically ffom their 1970 highs, but also appear vulnerable to further price erosion. MeanwhIile, clues as to new market leadership begin to assert themselves. The shape of the 'economY for, 1970 is beginning to emerge ever more clearly. We are, qUlte obviously, in the midstl6f the fifth post-war recession, and it will, at some point in time, be character ized by easiIer ' conditions, lower interest ratell, and, ultimately, a business recovery. In prospeci' of the' recession, a great many stocks have been battered down to levels which re flect not otuy pos(lible lower earnings, but disaster which is highly unlikely to occur. Thtis, we 4ave phenomena such as the following; the Dow-Jones Utility Average, bat- tered by/high interest rates in 1969, advances on the recent recovery, roughly twice as mue as the Dow-Jones.Industrials. U. S. Steel, down 33 in 1969 to a 10-year low, suddenly stage a 25 advance. Savings & Loan issues, obviously beset by savings outflows and other well- advertised troubleis, become the leaders on the upside in the recent rally. 'The thrust has quite clearly shifted in recent months from those issues wit sustained growth patterns to issues which could do well in conditions of economic recession, or which have battered down to ridiculous levels in anticipation of that recession. It is from these areas that 1970 stock market leadership is likely to emerge. 7tp.Dow-Jones Ind. 11 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Trans.J 173.21 AWTamb f ThiS market letter IS )OUt convemence and mformlltlOn Ilnd If not an offer to !'lell or !\ I0h(,lwtlon to bu) .my ..'('unt.le! ,hqCUM,cd The In- (ormntlOn was obtained fran \\,c beheve to Le rehabl!', hut we do not guarantee Its i\('curnrv Wnlslon & Co., Inc, nn,1 119 Omr!!19, dIrectors or L.f!.1/11employees may have an mtet'St 11'1 or purchase and sell the nfcrred to hereIn . . WN.SOI t

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - March 20, 1970
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Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 20, 1970 Dullness continues to characterize the stock market. The short-term decline from the March 4th pea k halted last week, but the market was unable to generate any steam on the upside and volume continued at its abnormal low level. Despite the apparent dullness, however, below the surface important changes are apparently taking place. As noted in last week's letter, we have reached one of those periods of shifting leadership in which the di- versity of individual stock patterns is unusual. Accordingly, we are beginning this week a review of major industry groups with a summary of the technical picture for the group as a whole, and comments on a few of the stocks therein. We will continue this review in sub- -sequent letters until it is-completed. . AEROSPACE. This group has been in a 4-year downtrend which, in most cases, shows little signs of being arrested. We would continue to avoid major issues in the group at this time despite their apparent cheapness. AIR TRANSPORT. Most issues moved down along with the market throughout 19691970, and continued to new lows last January. Tentative signs of improving technical action are apparent, but we would be inclined to defer purchase in most cases. Delta Airlines (33 1/4) appears potentially interesting if a successful attack on the heavy overhead supply at 36-39 can be mounted. ALUMINUM. The group moved in line with the market during the first half of 1969, but more recent action has been constructive with three of the four issues holding above their July lows in January. Not only are the potential bases formed since July sizable, but previously existing long-term bases also indicate higher f!lA w8uld consider Alcan Aluminium (261/4) and Aluminum Co. of America (67 1/2) 2),and Reynolds Metals (33 7/8) all buys on weakness. AUTOMOBILES. By and large the group look l enou recent levels, but we think more basing action will be required, 40-47 area for Ford (44 1/4), and the 65-75 a .. -AUTO ae level for Chrysler (26), the r G al Motors (705/8). OiigJ1-fl1ere have been some outsfafid ing individual issues. Some where ability to reach 33 woul e s in Champion Spark Plug (253/4) in Dana Corp. (24 1/ 4) where the upside breakout would be 27. BEVERAG – . ' as been one of the outstanding groups of 1969, main- taining a continuous r d 1 face of a sharply falling general market. We would con- tinue to hold most issu s, ough our favorite for new purchase remains Rheingold (29 1/2). BEVERAGE-D LERS. General group action continues uninteresting and other areas probably have more attraction. BEVERAGE-SOFT DRINKS. Another area that has been resistant to the general mar- ket decline. Both Coca-Cola (79 1/4) and Pepsico (52) can, in our opinion, be purchased on weakness. BUILDING. Patterns vary among different segments of the industry. In the Air- Conditioning group, Trane (66 7/8) appears attractive while Carrier (37 1/8) could also be basing. Cements are among the most attractive sub-groups in the industry with Alpha Port- land (19 3/4) and Lone Star (23 7/8) having the most interesting patterns at present. Heating and Plumbing issues look generally dull and should probably be switched into other issues in willthe building area. The Roofing and Wallboard stocks have reached downside are starting to base, but more time probably be required. – — and CHEMICALS. Again a broad diversity of patterns. The heavy chemical companies generally appear to have little downside risk at present depressed levels, but equally little immediate upside attraction, and we would be inclined to seek capital gains elsewhere. A fe interesting exceptions to the general downtrend are in the Industrial Gas field where Air Products (40 1/4) and Big-Three (40 1/2) are interesting, and in specialities such as Cabot Corp. (34 1/2), Clorox (225/8) and Koppers (41 1/2). COAL. Another group which was outstanding last year and still appears headed higher. We would hold major issues. Dow-Jones Ind. 763.66 Dow-Jones Trans. 170.75 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market letter IS published fO/ )'Qur f'OnVelHNllC .and mformUf)D ,mIl ); not Jln ITt tv ell or …. .oht'llatlon to buy Jill) dlscu;5'd The in formatIOn obtaIned fr,)m &ourt't.1 we to be hut we ,10 not gu rantC't. Its .Ircuracv Wl\lston s… Co. Inc lntl It., officers. dlr(''wrs or entOloye'l mny have An Interest In or purehn'lc ,mil sL'll the Itl I eft'J t .(1 t6 hCrCltl — II

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - March 26, 1970
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Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges O …. ER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER '- March 26, 1970 The long awaited break in the prime rate this past week brought an immediate,favorabl res)onse from investors. While some near-term weakness is anticipated, it seems that the worst now is over and that the great bear market of 1969-1970 is either already dead or dying. Last week we started a review of mdustrial groupings, highlighting various situations This is continued this week. The market climate now merits strong consideration on the buy side by investors seeking well defined appreciation in the months and years that lie ahead. CONTAINERS-l\IIETAL & GLASS. Glass issues generally look lower under the threat . '5f/pOEfsible-legiSlatlon- against CiinI40-71S) has-reaclieira-down'- side objective, b\lt basing in the 36-44 area probably will be required. Continental Can (73) remains in the confines of its longer-term uptrend and should be held. CONTAINERS-PAPERS. The long range downtrends continue and other areas would appear to offer more attraction. COPPER. Recent technical action of this group makes it one of the more interesting industries currently available. Relative strength has been improving since mid-1969, and Phelps Dodge (53 3/S),Kennecott (51), American Metal Climax (37), and American Smelting & Refining (35 1/2) all have upside object ives considerably above current levels. Even Anaconda,(29 3/S), the worst acting issue in the group last year, has fine recovery pros- pects. Producers-price stability for 1970 appears assured despite recession prospects and most major issues are relatively cheap with tremendous yi COSl\IIETICS. Although the group displayed outstandi s h guring 1969, some topping action is apparent and profit-taking should bani e m e of these stronger issues. Faberge (26 5/S),on our Recommended List ece ak, is at strong support. DRUGS. This group, which put on a Ie ormance during the second half of 1969, has been meeting with resistan t rthe side progress recently, suggest- ing that a period…Qf con.olidation .. Jl.-!Jave formed in several leading issues, such as Merck ( 104) pected. m),andfurther proflt taking could be ex- ;, ELECTRICAL P D c s have been common throughout this group in re- cent months, brin . ie n into areas of strong support where they again can be considered for in 0 such issues are Singer Mfg. (79 1/2), on our Recommen ed List, and Westingh se ctric (67). f ELECTRONIC L ERS. Weakness continues to characterize this group with most issues showing only attempts at stabilization. A period of backing and filling is necessary before substantial upside movement can be accomplished. While it is possible to read some what lower objectives for issues like International Business Machines (3331/4) and National Cash Register (140 1/2),the upside objectives for both issues remain in force and they con- tinue on our Recommended List for investment purposes. FINANCE COMPANIES. Basing operations have been going on in this group for the last few months, suggesting that the worst probably is over with. However, further evidence of definite improvement in the monetary picture is needed before significant upside progress can be expected. The same can be said for the SMALL LOAN COMPANIES which have started to show signs of improvement but which have not yet given buy Signals. ., FOODS. On balance, the charts of companies involved in production/processing and/or distribution of food products show a rising trend. This is particularly evident in the charts of Kraftco (40 3/S), Heinz (36 3/4), Campbell Soup (35 l/S) and Swift (31 1/4). These are of investment stature and can be considered during periods of weakness for pur- chase. Readable upside objectives are considerably above prevailing levels. DOW-Jones Ind. 791. 05 Dow-Jones Transp. 173. 2S ANTHONY W. TABELL-HARRY W. LAUBSCHER WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTHWLamb This mnrkct kttcr IS iJuhllsh …d (or your lonvcmenrc nnri Inform.lt)(JII uwl not all otri'l to or ,\ ROliILltzon to buy 1111) l'Ccuntics The m- formatIOn ohtluned from we Iwill'\'( to he ijll.Jhle, hut W(' do not JnMItntee Its lll'eUn'lC) Wnhton & Co, Inc. and It'! officers, dlrC(tors or employees may hnvc nn mtereot In or pun-hase Im,j the o;c.untl.1 r.ferrei to herem WN.sOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - April 03, 1970
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Walston &Co. —–lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND l'ABELL'S MARKET LEtTER April 3, 1970 We concluded our market letter of February 6,1970, with the following language We would, therefore, be buyers on weakness. Whether we will be buying for an intermediate ter rally, or a major bull market, we do not know as yet. But it is a problem we would prefer to approach holding equities rather than holding cash. To date, the first part of the forecast has ensued. We have, so far, enjoyed a reasonably good intermediate-term rally with the Dow up some 50 points from lows made just before the letter was written. The present question is whether the calf spawned last February is in the process of maturing into a full-gr'J.vn, rampaging bull. The evidence becomes more persuasive daily sive. To put the picture into perspective, let us glance at the somewhat painful market his- tory of the past 16 months. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed on December 3, 1968 at 985.21 and on January 31, 1970 at 744.06, a decline of 24.480/0 over a 14-month time span, typical performance for a post-World War II bear market. Llke all such bear markets, it was interrupted by occasional short-term advances a 7.670/0 advance from February to May 1969 covering 54 trading days; a 7. 620/0 from July to November in 73 trading days; and a 5. 370/0 advance in 11 trading days in December-January. The present reversal has taken the Dow from 744.06 to 792. 37 as of Thursday — a 6.490/0 advance in 42 trading days. To date, therefore, there is very little to distinguish the present rally from the previous in- terruptions of the long-term downtrend. In order for the present rally to dlstinguish itself from its predecessors, it would at least be necessary for it to continue a bit further. An say to around the 810 level, would certainly indicate great s couple of percent, than the market has been able to show at any time during the past year. l/(fPae '0 0 t dvance, moreover, would do a lot more than that. The downtrend t1i mber 1968 highs is, at present, reasonably well defined, and its Were the advance to continue, the downward , — for 16long 'mit ow roximately at the 802 level. p cha which has contained the market I It; , – — As we indicated evS e\..hJ;t s'ive. Since July, each success e a vi 0 1 a t 1 0 n will take place is carrying to-new lows on the averages, – , has provided more evi e ce CI haustion. The following table, which shows the nu ber of weekly new s d c ccessive low in the averages since July, is indicative of what we are talkin ll t Week Ended DJIA Closing Low Weekly New Lows Aug. 1, 1969 801. 96 1102 Dec. 19, 196 769.93 620 Jan. 30, 1970 744.06 449 Obviously, a great many issues made their lows as much as nine months ago and have been spending the intervening period basing for a new upswing. If, indeed, we have laid the bear to rest, what might be the eventual price targets for a new bull market The type of pattern recently formed in the Dow makes it difficult to answer this question at this early stage. It is possible, for example, to read the base forme since mid-December as indicating 875. However, heavy overhead supply exists at the 800- 835 area from the July-November trading range. It would logical to expect some backing and filling in this area on the way up, thus ultima.tely broadening a potential base pattern which could, at a minimum, indicate new highs for the Dow-Jones. There would be nothing surprising about this. Bull markets historically have recaptured all the ground lost in the previous downswing, plus a bit more. With evidEonce abounding that leadership on the next upswing will be provided by Dow-type stocks, we should certainly expect any advance to reach historical peaks in this index. We are, in sum, reaching a critical and interesting juncture. Inability of the present upswing to generate further upside momentum at this stage would be disappointing and pos- sibly indicative of a continuation of the long-term downtrend. A further extension of the advance, by contrast, would probably relegate the long 1968-1970 bear market to the ar- chives and usher in a period of surprising upside strength. Dow-Jones Ind. 791. 84 Dow-Jones Transp. 174.35 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ThIS mnrket Jette! L9 Jlubhshc,l for IJUI nn, Infnrm.,tlOJl lind 1.'1 not 1111 If, I… (01' II ,nhtatlOn to UU\ fOlm,ltLon wao; obtmned from souu'; we \,h'!Vl' to he IchabI', but we ,10 nut gu,\ranlp,- Lh. aecurm') \\tllh,ton & Cu, Inc and Its emploet's mn)' hlwe 1m mtelcst m OJ In!rchusl;' ,md sell the wfe/red to hT'm ,h ..ru-.sed The Lndlredors 01 WN301 I' 11 I' I! .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 10, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 10, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - April 10, 1970
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1, FILe Walston & Co. —-Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OYER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 10, 1970 We are continuing, this week, review of major mdustry groups initiated in this letter three weeks ago. FRANCHISING – This group, one of the speculative favorites of a year ago, includes many issues down 50 or more in the last four months. Although in some cases downside objectives are bemg approached, we would continue to avoid these issues and would favor switches even at current depressed levels. GLASS – A wide disparity among mdividual issues can be noted. Libbey-Owens-Ford (45 1/4), Owens-Illinois (55 1/4) and PPG Industries (30 5/8), appear cheap but unexciting. . Corning Glass .(231 ).coul(Lbe vulnerable to further / 8) appears interesting for purchase on weakness with a long-term objective well above current levels. GOLD – Issues may be held on a tradmg basis, and contmuation of short-term strengt is likely. The argument for the stocks as long-term investments continues, in our opinion, to verge on fantasy. HOLDING COMPANIES – This category includes the conglomerates which were the targets of — in most cases — well-deserved selling last year. Such a decline always tends to separate the men from the boys and a few lssues now have well defmed recovery pros- pects, although most continue uninteresting. Issues we would be inclined to favor would !include AMK Corp. (25), Bath Industries (20), International Tel & Tel (52 1/ 4) and Kinney INational (34 5/8). We would continue to avoid A-T-O, Inc. (101/2), Gulf & Western (15 1/8) and Ling-Temco-Vought (19 3/4). HOTELS – By and large the group appears vulnerab to INSURANCE – In many cases technical 1 f ult 0 rice weakness. I 'nterpret due to recen I listing, but by and large the group appears attrachv . be e ality issues suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios. Aetna nti 1 p. (42 1/8), INA Corp. (34 7/S) and Travelers (33 7/S) all appear to be m the ce ges of sizeable base forJ7lations. -MAeHINE T00GS – ow ends fOT-uver'a-year-;-buttn-mo-st case – objectives appear to have bee very httle basmg has been done and we would regard them as tr ding h y\tlt'j'i such time as reaccumulation is complete. MACHlNERY-A R eere (41 7/8) is the most attractive issue in the group with an ups' 0' s. We would favor switching International Harvester (273/4) and Massey 1/4) mto it. MACHIl\TERY – oup, of course, includes many diverse companies. Among those which appear attracti t the moment are American Hoist (15) wlth an objective of 24, Clark Equipment (35 1/4) with an objective of 60, and Studebaker-Worthington (45 1/2) with an initial objective of 70. MOTION PIC TURE – Some prospects for near-term price recovery appear to exist in the group, especially in Twentieth Century-Fox (15 7/S). We WOuld, however, avoid othe issues on an investment basis. OFFICE EQUIPMENT – This group has, of course, borne the brunt of major invest- ment disenchantment over the past few weeks and the problems are well known — involving a combination of relatively high price/ earnings ratios coupled with slowing growth rates. We do not consider the stocks to be deeply vulnerable at these levels, although over the short-term probabilities favor lower prices. The problem is that time — perhaps a good deal more than in the past — maybe required before the sharp uptrends in these stocks are resumed. We would thus be buyers only on weakness, and then with the objective of patient holding,m' I.' ',elding.. OILS – Quality international oil issues have been the most recent targets of the 1969 bear market, dropping off sharply from peak levels reached around the middle of last year. Such issues as Atlantic Richfield (61), Mobil (44), Royal Dutch (3S 5/S), Standard Oil of New Jersey (56) and Texaco (26) appear to be bargains based on longer-term prospects, but no evidence of basing has manifested itself yet and holders of these issues should be prepared for a long wait before uptrends are resumed. For those willing to assume risk, attractive purchase opportunities exist in a number of specialties such as Mesa Petroleum (49 1/4) and Pacific Petroleum (29 l/S). Dow-Jones Ind. 790.46 Dow-Jones Transp. 172. 38 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrket letter 1'1 mhhshcd for )our C'onventence ,mrl mfolml\tlon and IS not an offer to sell or ,\ soliclt,ltlOn to an)' ')C'unLte! ,jL'lcuso;cd The In- (ormnhon '\\1\8 obtluncd from SOUlI'C'l \\C 1.(l\c\c to bc rellahle. but 'H! do not guarllntee Its WRiston & Co. Inc. l,nd offieNs, dlrccf.Qrb 01 L'fn.JZ!0YCl'S n,a) have nn mterest In or nnd 'lei I the untll'' refcrl ed f.Q herem AWTamO WN-30! . ,'.1 …..m..n,a ),1 i i ….

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - April 17, 1970
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W—-a–l-s-tIonnc–&—C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 17, 1970 Recent weekly closes for two widely held stocks, Westinghouse and Xerox, describe recent stock market action far better than any volume of text we could produce. 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 .ll6 3/13 3/20 lJ.l. 4/3 4/10 4/17 WX 55 1/4,56 5/8,597/8,61 3/4,607/8,65 1/2,655/8,63 3/8, 67,6'6 1/4,66 1/2, 68 1/ B XRX 1005/8,1025/8,973/4,985/8,91, 933/4,901/4,903/8, 94,87, 861/2, 84 7/8 Diversity, in short, has been unusual. Since the beginning of the year we have seen sharp recent declines in many 1969 market favontes (Xerox' performance is outstanding com in …l!ad ions in early 1969 (Westinghouse had been down from almost80 to a low of -54 r – – – Of late, unfortunately, most issues have shown price action more similar to that of Xerox than Westmghouse, with the result that the Dow, which had been holding up better than most individual stocks, finally violated the uptrend which it had maintained since the end of January. This violation makes it extremely difficult to become optimistic over the immediate future f()r the market. An extreme oversold condition exists which, when reversed, could provide a worthwhile rally. However, the market's early-April inability to rise above the 800 level and reverse its 15-month downtrend makes the immediate picture somewhat questionabl The bottom will inevitably come, of course, and it will come as more and more stock as Westinghouse has already done, reach downside obJectives, broaden out bases and com- mence moving upward. This very diversity, of course, proves the the market and con centrating on individual issues and portfolio upgrading. W 0 15elow,in this connectio our review of individual industry groups. PAPER – This group was one of the leaders lat early 1969 upswing, and since that time has been in a correctlOnary PhSalt h i e better issues the correct- ions have, generally, been on the mild side. e ort-t bases built up are, by now, substantial-;– and-whIle we national Paper (36 1/4), vaco (25) as buys on minor wea e ;aPHOTOGRAPH – n 0 tlO Inter–o— Sctt(331/2),Klmberly(711/2)andWest- \, (74 5/B) will probably continue its recent sidewise action, although th e e IS favorable. Polaroid (90 3/ B) is approaching its downside objective, w u refer to avoid the issue for the time being. RADIO – TV -I) st es in the group should be aVOided at this time. RAILROAD EQ NT – Car-leasing stocks, such as General American Transpor- – tation (395 B) and Trans Union (301/4) appear to be attractIve purchases. Outlook for the . others in the group is mixed. RETAILS – Generally an attractive group with a number of better quality issues show ing above-average relative strength. We would favor Federated (35 1/2), among the Depart- ment Stores, and FIrst National (36 1/ 4), Grand Union (2B 3/ B) and Safeway (27 1/8) among the Grocery Chains. RUBBER – Most issues have been in sharp downtrends and in many cases earnings estimates for 1970 have been lowered. We think the long-term outlook more interesting than recent action would indicate, but for the time being would avoid. STEELS – It is possible — Just possible — that this could be the sleeper group of 1970. Short-term'uptrends have quite clearly now been established in most of the major issues, and it remains to be seen whether they can follow through and post the long-term breakouts which would mdicate deciSively higher levels. TEXTILES – Many issues in thIS area have formed attractive bases since mid-1969, and we are favorably disposed toward American Enka (32 1/4), Burlington (41) and, on any further weakness, Duplan (24). TOBACCO – The quality Issues have returned to their mid-1969 lows and appear at- tractive buys for long-term investment. UTILITIES – We continue to rate this group as outstandingly attract ive, not only for investment accounts, but also, in the present market, for aggreSSive ones as well. In general, out of the large number of issues available, we tend to favor the relatively high-growth utilities, vis-a-vis the admittedly somewhat cheaper income producers. Dow-Jones Ind. 775.94 Dow-Jones Transp. 167 40 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 'Ihls mnlket 1l'ttel IS I'ubh;;h…(! (.)r \OUI uld mformntl)n ,lIltl IS not ,111 offel to sell 01 I 'Oh'LlatlOn to ,ul) -.ccunllCS dllCU;,sd The In- formltlOn \\,1' ohtmnl.''I hom tOUH'!'-. \\(' he!'l\o to lw 1.1I.lble lout v.e .1 not IUnrrmtee Its .l.!'(urn('\ \'.nlslon &. Co, Inc, ,m,-i Its office.s. dlrecton. or etTIIJloycll rna) have nil Iflterest rn or purlh,u,c ar11 till' 'l'(Ulltll' r ('/1 (, …1 to herl'lfl. AW b WN-!

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 24, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 24, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - April 24, 1970
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( W—-a–l-s–tIonnc–&—-C–o–. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 24, 1970 In most discussions of last week's stock market, three catch-phrases seemed to pop up repeatedly. They were oversold condition, bear market and pessimism. They were, indeed, appropriate in light of the continuing abysmal performance. The week featured five more days on which declines exceeded advances, making it fifteen conse- cutive days now that this melancholy condition has existed. Wednesday and Thursday fea- tured 10 and 12-point declines in the Dow with over 1100 declining stocks on both days, and on all five days of the week the erstwhile glamor issues of late 1969 continued to post multi- point losses on heavy volume. What was going on m listed stocks was a virtual picnic com- pared to .the carnage.being cwrought in the .overthe-countermar.k!t w1)ere.biQs .ora .. of issues virtually disappeared. Thus, the three phrases mentioned ab'ove certainly had a great deal of validity as far as the week's market action was concerned. It is, however, worth exploring each one and placing it in context. Oversold condition is, unfortunately, a much misunderstood term. The existence of such a condition is, contrary to the belief of many investors, absolutely no guarantee tha the market will go up. Indeed, the most vicious parts of severe market declines tend to occur at times when the market is already deeply oversold. The oversold condition simply remains in effect or gets deeper. The existence of an oversold condition means only that the market has reached a stage from which a rebound, when it occurs, could be of Significant dimensions and that, from a time point of view, a reversal is probably fairly near at hand. Now, today's market, by any measure one cares to use, is, in fact, deeply oversold and we think it likely, based on thIS fact, that, within a of time an impor- ' tant reversal will occur. The existence of the oversold co iti er, gives us abso- lutely no clue as to the level from which such a . t tak ceo Thus, unless marked reversal evidence occurs, and it certainly aM, t occ is week, it is difficult to get optimistic about the near-term market p mec. -I,- As to the phrase bear market, us t sc this week's decline, it is probabl. 'avarnrone .. -h ointedoutin–t-hepast-;–the-Dow-Jones — Industrial Average has been 100-pomt wide downward channel ever since December 1968. As of e I 's or'WP, WIth the Dow at 790, the market had a chance to break out of r nel and failed the test miserably. Thus, the pres- ent retreat is squ I ext of the long-term downtrend that has existed for well over a year. And yet, we thl k market atmosphere at this stage is a great deal different than that which existed in y 1969. Since July 1969, there have been a whole series of market downthursts of which the present one is the fourth. Each one has been more or less severe, depending on what sort of market index one was looking at. The present drop is particularly severe in the American Stock Exchange Index and moderately so in the broad-based New York Stock Exchange and Standard & Poor's 500, all of which, last week, carried to new lows for the move. It is least severe in the Dow-Jones, which is still holding above its January low and which IS down, so far, only a bit over 50/0. The Dow Utilities also remain well above their lows of last January. We are inclined to take some comfort in this statistic simply because it is the sort of action that tends to take place during the terminal rather than the early phases of a de- cline. Such phases are generally featured by liquidation of past speculative excess and rela- tively less'vulnerability investment-grade segmenCoIfne'lisC-This is preCisely what we are seeing at the moment and the technical patterns of better-quality issues indicate that more-than-modest drops in the future are unlikely. The final phrase descriptive of the current market is pessimism and, indeed, this feeling is unquestionably building up as the market moves into lower levels. We must confess we find this encouraging. What, in retrospect, was wrong with the February-March ad- vance was the fact that too many people were ready to hail it as the end of the decline and the beginning of a new market upswing. This is generally not the case at the start of a real bull market. If, when the next rally occurs, we are widely assured that it is only temporary, the odds of a real reversal having taken place will be that much greater. DOW-Jones Ind. 747.29 Dow-Jones Transp. 161. 82 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'l l'rl.llIket Il'tl'T 1 ImtJhshei for your Hnd mfOlm.lllol ,,,111 1; not all offel tn sell 01 11 bullulntlon to buy rtf!) SCf'Ufltlt'9 UlbCU;SI,1. The tn. rOlm.ltmn Wl!, (1)tllnl'l'1 florn lOUII' we Iohlvl' tn Iw l'h,d,I hut WI' do not JroHI,mtl aCCUIJtry WHltOll 8.. Co Inc .Inll offictrs, (lircctor,. 01 may huve nn IntclcBt III 01 11Uf('hHSl 'Hul '.!IJ thc to hcrcln AWTamb- — WN.301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 01, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 01, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - May 01, 1970
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OffICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKETlEUER. May 1, 1970 The market 'events–df the 'past week struck a familiar chord for the market technician Briefly, we were, once more, treated to the familiar picture of climactic price upheavals as the market engaged in the inexorable process of liquidating what shreds remained from the 1967-68 speculative boom. The action of the past week is worth describing in some detail The week began with the sort of performance which has become familiar — 1200 de- clining stocks and a 12-point drop in the Dow, with glamor issues leading the parade on the downside. On Tuesday, the first glimmer appeared when the market opened four points lower and, in the first two hours, regained its opening loss. However, by noon it became ap parent that the rally was not going to hold and the slide resumed, knocking another ten or s points-from the averages. By Wednesday, -the gyrations became-truly-wild. A firm ope-lling , and a sharp rally took the Dow up almost eight points, at which point the first inkling of the Cambodian situation appeared. Promptly, the entire gain was reversed and the market found itself off as much as 4 points when, with equal suddenness, support was met and a sharp ris with expanding volume brought the Dow to a level 13 points better than its previous close. Th rally continued for another 4 pOints on Thursday before petering out, and prices dipped lowe on reduced volume all day with some firmness at the close. On Friday, the market opened ritually lower in response to the President's speech, but erased most of the losses in later trading. The intra-day low on Wednesday was 716.74, at which level the Dow had penetrated its 1966 low and extended its decline from the December 1968 intra-day high of 994.65 to 27.90/0. This percentage figure, incidentally, exceeds the 27.5 decline of 1966, and makes the current drop the second deepest one to date of the sity only by the 29.2 drop of 1961-62. — exceeded in inten- \0' 0 As we said above, it is all familiar ground feh 'Cia e series of down- thrusts followed by sharp rallies, often on volume, natur ncomitant of bear market slides. The market sinks to a level where i t f i hees a nd a rally ensues. The de- mand, however, is insufficient to break the rd t and the market promptly turns an plunge s . panied by these multiple was finally reached in June, a t seven of them before the ultimate low in 1966. How many we will see this time around only Again, ine 11 . s continued pessimism deepened. As we indicated above last week's market ther ash of an old familiar plot and one of the most inevitable components of this plo is sh of voices who assure us that this decline is unique — that it has its own peculia of economic causes and that, therefore, past history is no guide in pointing out the bottom. We were even beginning to hear, as the week drew on, the ritual references to 1929 which habitually appear at just about this stage of a bear market. The rapid emergence of the old familiar litanies is about the only thing that adds a touch of humo to an otherwise painful process. Yet, what of the future The familiarity of the scenario, unfortunately, is of preciou little help in formulating a concrete market forecast. One factor that has been repeatedly true in all declines that have developed the momentum of the present one is that support levels and downside targets generally mean very little. The decline continues until such time as concrete evidence of a reversal takes place and, as of the end of last week, we had not seen any such evidence. The very steepness of the decline, of course, assures us that w'e are probably reasonably close to a turning point from a time point of view. This we discusse in some detail in our letter of last week. The level at which a reversal might take place is a entirely different matter. We think there is a possibility of an extension of the drop to the 690-680 area, but this is, at best, a rough estimate and could be altered swiftly by future events. In other words, despite the questionable near-term outlook, we think the most valuable commodity the investor can bring to today's market is the courage to take advantage of price weakness that may occur and to buy quality stocks on any further dips. We fee I there are few concrete grounds for optimism about the near-term course of prices, but we are convinced that, in historical context, the present prices of high-grade stocks will, over the next couple 0 years, prove to be among the best investment bargains of the past quarter century. Dow-Jones Ind. 733. 63 Dow-Jones Transp. 156.53 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT'ambI Thill market letter l.s published for your convemence and Information and IS not an offer sell or n solicitatIOn to buy any secuntles The In. formation was obtained. from sources we heheve to be rehable, but we do not gUarantee Its occuml') Walston & Co Inc. and Its officers, director ,I emDloyees may have an mterest III or purchnse Rnd sell the secuTlues referred to helen' 8 or WNBOl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 08, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 08, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - May 08, 1970
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Walston &Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 8, 1970 The stock market plunged still further into new low territory last week before mak- ing another recovery attempt at week's end. It began with another blue Monday featuring a 19-point slide in the Dow to an intra-day low of 710.40. The decline continued, without much conviction, on Tuesday to a further low of 704.46. Tuesday night's reduction in margin requirements sparked a sharp recovery attempt as the Dow advanced 16 points in the first hour, lost most of the gains and then recovered sharply for an gain which was further extended on Thursday. Friday's trading, however, saw another light volume decline with prices winding up near the week's lows and the Dow reaching 713.04 conanintra-daybasis. – – – –0 –. – — —-Ii With all of the wild gyrations of the past two weeks it should be obvious that the market is probing for a bottom at least on a short term basis. Yet, we confess that, at the moment, we see no conclusive evidence that that bottom has been reached. A week or so of protracted resistance to the decline could alter the picture radically, but, until such resistance develops, we feel that prices are likely to continue under pressure. On a more positive note, though, while there is no evidence that the downward trend in prices has abated, we feel that a great many issues have reached or are close to bargain-basement levels. Walston & Co., Inc. 's research policy committee, in a state- ment issued this week, said the most positive course is to recognize that it is during bear markets that historic purchase opportunities are created. The committee went on to say that, At major market bottoms in the past, it has inevitably' been quality issues which have led the ensuing up-swing, while, with equal inevitability, favorites which have undergone liquidation in the previous bear ha e nued in downtrends or gone dormant for an extended period. We attractive due to their inherent cheapness, but that t!\e'Ywill 2major up-swing. IJ th ality issues are e leaders of the next We would like to expand on a' urther. It has long been recog- — – r is W5 enera11ytend'to-Jje above–average-in– vestment vehicles in the fina1m slump and the initial stages of the ensuing advance. ihiS ea e lar el;9- forgotten of late since the most recent severe decline, 1966, was n x ' . At t time, a great many issues in the electronics, air- lines, aircraft an e' field which had enjoyed meteori c rises in the 1965-1966 up-swing dropped sh 1 i 6 only to recover all of the lost ground and move on to new high territory in 1967. sort of performance is highly unusual and we doubt that it will be repeated. We thin hat the recovery, when it comes, will be more similar to the after- math of the 1962 stock price break. In that era, just to cite one example, Brunswick Corp. which had scored a 15000/0 advance over the preceding four years dropped sharply from a high of 75 to a low of 13. The initial recovery was dyna mic and the stock recovered to 20 within a few months. However, by early 1963, it had moved to new lows, and it failed entirely to participate in the 1963-1966 bull market. By contrast, General Motors declined relatively moderately in the 1962 break, dropping from 57 to 46. From that Iowan almost straight-line recovery took it to 110 four years later. There is a perfectly valid reason for this and it is as simple, really, as the reason the child who once burns his hand on the stove does not put it there again. Far too many people have suffered disasters in the speculative favorties of the past two yean; and it is highly unlikely that, whatever lows are reached in these issues, enough massive investment sentiment will develop to return them to anything like their former highs in the near future. Nearly all investors have lost money in the stock market over the past year and it seems quite ObVlOUS that they will gravitate, at least while the losses are fresh in their mind, to those issues where earnings stability and inherent cheapness mitigate against disastorous repetition of 1969-1970 experience. We think, in short, that an interesting buying area is approaching, but we think also that, in order to take advantage of it, the investor must assume the proper portfolio stance. The fallen stars of the past two years should be ruthlessly weeded out on any modest rally and holdings should be up-graded to include those stocks which derive their attraction, not from pie-in-the-sky growth prospects, but inherent fundamental value. Dow-Jones Ind. 717.73 Dow-Jones Transp. 154.34 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This rnltrket lettel is published for conventence and \nfOrmntiOn and L, not fin offer to sell or n soliCitation to hu) any SL'(UntLcs discussed The In- , formntlon WIl'l obtamed from SOUI!'e Vol' beILcH' to be rehable, but we do not gUltT.mlee Its AccurAC \\'Rlston & Co. Inc. and Its officer'!, directors or I have an Interest lD or purchlUlc and sell the lefured to helem WN.SOt I ,I 1 .. ,,1,

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