Viewing Month: January 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - January 02, 1970
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r Walston &Co. —–lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER In any event, the technical pattern indicates that the bear market is over and that a recovery has started. ….. R. W. Mansfield January 2, 1970 Whether or no Mr. Mansfield's words will bear the fruit of promise they suggest, it appears quite likely that the stock market will celebrate the New Year with an enthusiasm that has been lacking for many moons. Positions eliminated for tax purposes late in 1968 are apt to be reinstatei d fairly early in the new year, indicating the strong possibility of a very strong market'in the weeks that he ahead. May the New Year now starting be one of good- a-n-(fcontentrrent fo; and aii….–,, . – , FEDERATED DEPARTMENT STORES, INCORPORATED Current Price 37 Current Dividend 1. 00 Current Yield ;, Long Term Debt 2.7 70,800,000 C,. tnv. Debs. ,Common Stock 20,000,000 43,500,784 shs. Sales-1970-Est. 2 billion Sales-1969 1. 8 billion Earn. Per Sh. 1970-Est. 2. 05 Earn. Per Sh. 1969 1. 85 Mkt. Range 1968-1969 42 1/2-31 Contrary to the performance of a majority of stocks that started out the 1959 year higher where they ended the year, Federated Department Stores did fairly well in rmnaging to hold its own by closing at its average price for the year. And, 0idespite a Christmas season considered somewhat less than spectacular by much of the retailing in- dustry, the result final quarter of the fiscal year endin Jan 3P, 1970 should give a good .R a . in store for this high c during the early part . – .T-hings-have pOintment of four group tol'engthenthetopmanagementstructurein preparation for the continued e corporation. The primary aim of this new level of top e 0 n and direct department store expansion in the decade ahead. It i e I that Federated has been among the leaders in store expansion in recent . u the third quarter of the current fiscal year, the opened more new depa tm tore space than in any other fiscal three months in its history. Five new branches we pened, in addition to a new headquarters unit for its Levy's divi- sion in Tucson. Federated is the nation's largest department store chain and the most widely diversi fied, geographically Stores are operated by 18 divisions, including such well-known names as Bloomingdale's (N. Y.), Abraham & Strauss (N. Y.), Filene's (Boston), Shillito' s (CinCinnati), Foley's (Houston), Lazarus (Columbus) and Bullock's (Los Angeles). Also, 1. Magnin and Burdine's in California. There now are approximately 100 department stores, of which nearly 85 are branches. Federated also operates a chain of supermarkets under the Ralphs Industies name,located in the greater Los Angeles area. The company plans to continue its policy of opening new branches in areas economically attractive and to expand further through acquisition of well extablished existing stores still not associated with any large chain, when possible. In the past; this policy of growth through acquisition has prove highly successful. Technically, Federated's stock market activity has created a base of several year's duration in the area between 40 and 30. This area of congestion enables the projection of an initial price objective at 48, followed by a higher goal readable at 56. Already on the Qua.lity and Long-Term Growth section of our Recommended List, Federated Department Stores is again recommended for purchase by investment-oriented accounts seeking welldefined capital appreciation and long-term dividend growth. ANTHONY W. TABELL HARRY W. LAUBSCHER Dow-Jones Ind. 800.36 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 176.34 HVjTT at Th,is l1l,;arket letter 18 puhhshed for your COnvenience Qnd mfoTmll.tlon Il.nd IS not An offer to sell or a So.itcltatlOn to buy all – t . .. Th . ormation was obtamed from BOurees we beheve to be reliable but we do not !flUU' t t W I to y securl les \.ILseu,.,..,.,.. I! In- emDloYee8 may have an interest in or PUFchase and sell the referred to ee I s accuracy. R s n & Co. 1ne. and Its officers. directors or WN.SOl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - January 09, 1970
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Walston &- Co, —-Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS -/ TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 9, 1970 As regular readers are aware, this letter maintains a fully supervised list. Fully supervised in this casemeans that the list is continuously maintained and no issues are added or deleted without notice being made of the fact in the letter. Thus, regula readers of the letter are able to make new purchases at the time of recommendation and re- tain those issues for as long as they remain in the list, if they desire to do so. …Readers will also be aware that we have, since December 31, 1964, maintamed a tinuous performance record for thlS list. The method used, while rather complex, meets, we believe, applicable s,t./ndards, and is the fairest possible under the circumstances. For ach is suerecomrpended wetabulat,Uhe the. original recommendation to the hme of removal or, in the case of lssues remaining on the list, to the time of publication. We then tabulate the l'lercentage change on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average for the same time period. Then, for each segment of the list the percentage ;'''-1.115''1'1 in the individual issues, and the percentage changes m the Dow are averaged and a com- parison is made. ,I ,. As is our annual custom, a complete performance evaluation of the list over the pa three years has been made as of the 1969 close, and will be available next week from your Walston & Co. Account Ex,cutive. It lists all lssues on the list at the begmning of 1969, and all stocks recommended durmg the year. In addition, the performance record of stocks removed from the list from 1965 through 1968 is summarized. The process, this year, is, frankly, a humbling experience — albeit one that lS shared with a great number of forecasters and money without doubt, been a difficult market to work in, and it lS interestmg to note t at ocks currently on the list, every was made at a eDw at higher levels. Losses in recommended lssues, some substantial, mo umerous this year, and profits sparser. we feel the the market, is adequate. As usual, the list is divided into thre ori Quality and Long-Term Growth, Price AppreCiation; and Ct n-;—TheoveraH-perfo of the categories is as Growth list shows an average gain of 4 vs. an average loss n e '1Sl6'W-Jones Industrtals. The Price Appreciation list shows an average . average of no change in the Dow, and the Specula- tive Price Apprec' .0 s an average gain of 46 vs. no gain in the Dow. The se summaries are, of r ade to imply that such results will be obtained by purchase in the future. Commis 10 re, of course, not included. When this co tion process began on December 31, 1964, the Dow was at 874. 13, more than 75 points above its current level and during most of the period it has been above its present price. The Long-Term Growth list, as noted above, turned in an average 4 gain. This list had a total of 42 recommendations of whlch 23 have advanced and 19 have declined. Twenty-seven of the 42 issues outperformed the Dow-Jones Industrials, The largest established gain was a 65 profit in Continental Insurance in 1967-68 and, of issues currently on the list, both Reynolds Tobacco and InternatlOnal Paper show 19 profits. Conversely, Radio Corporation and Superior Oil of California, still on the list, show 39 losses. The Price Appreciation section totaled 112 recommendations of which 31 remain on the list. Sixty-three issues have advanced and 49 declined, with 60 issues outperforming the Dow. Nine issues achieved a better than 100-profit during the period they were recom-' mended of which one (Robertshaw Controls) remains on the list. Losses included a 60 drop in Stokely-Van Camp, still on the list, and a 41 established loss in E. J. Korvette in 196 In the Speculative Price Appreciation section, the performance varied widely, rangi from profits in excess of 200 to a loss of 57. Eight profits of over 100 were recorded out of 43 recommendations, of which 27 advanced and 16 declined. Twenty-seven of the 43 issues outperformed the Dow in the period involved. Dow-Jones Ind. 798. 11 Dow-Jones Trans. 177.77 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb mnl kct !!'ttp, l'uhh..,h,d r,ll n, r '(ul mlo, m ,1111 .1Il.! h Il..-.t ,\11 ,,If,1 to III \ ..hIIlhn to hu IHI rOlmatmn WH .. I,tlll,'1 fl')Ul 0111 .. \\(' \,,1,.,. In \. ,.Ilhlt l,ut ,jn not )..!U,I,\lIt('(' It, UUI,II\ 8. Cn In ,md cmnlol'l.! Ill!l\ ha\t' an Intt.'le8t III 01 pUlrh,I',,' .lnd ell the … UII!( .. 1''ll'' to 11'111 dl .. The \IL ,hll..-tor or WN.301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1970 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1970 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1970 page 3
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. Walston &Co. fILE Members New York Stock Exchange end Other Principal Stock end Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS .' TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST January 12, 1970 This edition of our Recomm'ended List tallies the price performance of all recommended stocks over the past five 'years. As usual, the list is divided into three categories, Quality and Long-Term Growth, Price Appreciation, and Speculative Price Appreciation. Included at the bottom of the tabulation after each category are all stocks removed from the list during the year 196, 9,' The list, therefore, covers all stocks on our Recommended List a year ago, and all those recommended during the year. In addition, the performance of stocks removed 1965 and 1965is averaged at the bottom of each list. The first.two columns show the recommendation date and price. In cases where the-' recommendation took place before December 31, 1964, this is used as a base date. The third column, shows the price on December 31, 1969, or on the date removed if the stock is not now on the list. The fourth column shows the percentage change, and the fifth column shows the percentage change in the Dow-Jones Industrials during the same time period. The tabulation speaks for itself. The stocks in the Quality and Long-Term Growth section of the list show an average rise of 4 vs. an average drop of 4 in the Dow-Jones Industrials. The stocks in the Price Appreciation section show an average gain of 20 vs. no change in the Dow, and in the Speculative Price Appreciation section, the average gain is 46 vs. no change for the Dow. These summaries are, of course, not meant to imply that such results could have ( been obtained by purchase of issues in the Recommended List, or that similar result swill be obtained by purchase in the future. Commissions are, of course, not included. i QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH — – – – Price as of date Recom. mended Address. Multi. 4/1S/69 73 1/2 Alum. Co. Amer. 5/3/65 71 7/S Amer. Tel & Tel 9/7/65 67 Boston Edison 1/17/69 44 3/S Cater. Tractor 9/S/67 47 Del Monte 9/S/67 34 3/4 Feder.Dept. St. 11/17/67 35 Intern'l Bus. Mach. 10/9/ 69 340 Intern'l Paper 6/29/65 31 Jewel Cos. Johns Manville Merck 1/17/69 1/17/69 9/29/69 46 1/2 42 1/2 95 Natl Cash Reg. 9/26/69 140 Nevada Power 1/17/69 42 1/2 Parke Davis Phillips Pete. 4/22/66 36 1/2 3/17/67 27 1/2 Radio Corp. 9/S/67 56 5/S Reynolds Tob. Royal Dutch Sears Roebuck 12/31/64 3S l/S 12/31/64 36 5/S 10/9j69 66 Superior Oil 4/1S/69 21S Union Carbide 9/26/69 41 'J/S Price 12/31/69 Removed 61 71 1/4 4S 5/S 33 3/4 42 1/2 25 3/S 37 364 1/2 37 l/S 44 30 113 160 1/2 37 3/S 35 24 l/S 34 45 1/2 39 5/S 6S 131 1/2 37 Change DJIA same Time Change Period – 17 – 13 0 – 13 – 27 -11 – 23 – 14 – 9 -11 – 26 5 7 19 -5 – 11 -7 S 5 – 14 – 29 IS 14 – 14 -2 -2 – 12 -14 -4 – 15 – 12 7 39 19 -11 -S S 3 – 39 – 10 -S 0 – 13 -2 eurrent Comment Hold Buy on Dips. Buy on Dips. Buy on Dips. Buy In support zone. Buy. Buy. Buy. Buy on .dips to 36. Buy on dips. Sup. at 40 Hold Buy. Support at 1!0-105 Buy on dips. In support zone. Buy. Buy. Buy. Hold. Sup. at 34-2S. Hold. Buy on dips. Hold. Buy on dips. Buy on dips. Hold. Buy. Amerada Hess Borden Co. Colgate Palm. Continental Oil S/16/67 9/S/67 3/17/67 3/17/67 SO 3S 1/2 29 3/4 34 l/S 96 1/4 27 49 1/2 35 l/S 20 – 29 66 2 -9 -S 6 6 Removed 9/19/69 Removed 9/19/69 Removed 4/1S/69 Removed 4/1S/69 II Thll! Bullctm is published for your conVlfilt'nCI' find mfol mahon Itnd IS not an offer to '1ell or a soliCItatIon to bu) any securaties dIscussed The Information was obtaIned from sources we b.. ll..ve to I.. elmb!.., but we ,10 not Its ILCCUltl' Wnlston & Co. Inc Itnd Its officels. dIrectors or employees mllY have an Interest In or purchase Itnd ..II the .ccuntu!'s refer rl'l to herein WN-916 Walston &Co ;;;;111 Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock Commodity Exchanges OVER lOG OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERHAS TABELL'S Date Recom. Price as of date Recommended Goodyear Tire Kellogg Co Krafco U. S. Gypsum Winn Dixie 6/17/66 251/2 9/8/67 38 5/8 2/2/68 37 1/4 9/6/68 877/8 -1/17/69-36 Stocks Removed, 1965-68 (eleven) AVERAGE RECOMMENDED LIST Price Change 12/31/69 DJIA same or date 'Time Remwed Change Period 28 5/8 42 39 74 1/2 33 7/8 12 8 4 – 15 -5 – …..7 i -3 -9 – 11 27 6 4 -4 (Page 2 ) Current Comment Removed 9/19/69 Removed 4/18/69 Removed 9/19/69 PRICE APPRECIATION Amer. Distilling 1/17/69 29 1/4 Amer. Mach. F. 9/8/67 22 7/8 Arvin Ind. 2/2/68 33 1/2 Atlas Chemical 10/6/69 27 Big Three Ind. 11/20/69 40 Cenco Instrum. 1/17/69 55 3/8 Cl ark Equip. 4/18/69 38 1/4 Copperweld Steel 12/31/64 26 3/8 Culligan, Inc. 11/28/69 22 Dan River Mills 1/17/69 25 3/8 Dart Industries 8/30/68 38 7/8 … First Chart. Fin. 2/2/68 29 Grolier, Inc. 9/29/69 32 Ingersoll Rand 1/17/69 50 3/4 Koppers Co. 12/31/64 27 1/2 McNeil Corp. 9/8/67 17 1/4 Medusa Port. C 11/17/67 28 3/8 Mesabi Trust 12/31/ 64 14 7/8 Pittston 9/25/69 65 Republic Steel 9/8/67 49 3/4 Reynolds Metals 12/31/64 34 7/8 Robert. Controls 3/15/66 17 Seab. Coast Ind. 5/5/67 55 5/8 Stokely Van Camp 5/31/68 60 Suburban Prop. 1/17/69 36 1/4 Texas Instrum. 6/6/69 123 1/4 Times Mirror 11/13/69 44 Union Camp '–Vornado 3/23/66 23 1/2 5-1-/2 Western Union 6/16/69 54 1/2 20 – 31 18 1/2 – 19 21 – 37 23 7/8 -11 42 3/8 5 42 – 24 33 – 13 17 – 35 23 5/8 7 12 1/8 – 52 48 1/2 24 33.- 3 36 1/8 24 30 3/4 – 3 35 1/8 – 30 38 3/4 40 15 1/8 – 12 29 3/8 3 8 3/8 – 43 81 1/2 25 34 1/4 – 31 29 1/2 – 15 37 1/8 118 33 1/2 – 39 23 1/2 – 60 31 1/8 – g 124 3/4 1 40 1/4 – 8 30 7/8 31 44 7/8 – 17 – 14 11 -7 -1 -3 – 14 – 13 -8 -1 -14 – 1o0 -7 -2 – 14 -8 -11 -7 -8 -3 – 11 -8 – 13 – 11 – 10 – 14 – 13 -5 – 13 —1-1- – 10 Hold Buy on dips. 16 Hold Buy on dips. Hold, in support. Buy on dips. Buy on dips.Sup.at 28 Hold Buy on dips to 20-19. Buy Buy on dips, goal at60 Sup. at 35-30. Buy Buy on dips. In support, buy. Sup. at 30-28.Buy dip Buy on dips to 37. In support, buy. Buy on dips. Buy on dips.In sup.zo Buy on dips to 75. Hold, buy on dips. Hold Hold Buy on dips. Hold Buy on dips, in sup. zo e ' Hold, buy on dips. Hold, buy on dips. Hold on-dips, Hold Adams Millis 3/17/67 11 Air Products 1/17/69 44 1/2 Air Reduction 4/22/66 36 3/8 Amer. Bakeries 9/8/67 26 3/4 . Bulova Watch 9/8/67 30 Burlington Ind. 11/17/67 41 1/8 Chicago Mus. I 2/2/68 33 1/2 Commonw'th Oil 3/17/67 26 3/8 Diners Club 9/8/67 40 1/8 17 5/8 38 1/4 18 13 1/4 47 3/4 37 25 3/4 23 5/8 27 1/4 60 – 14 – 50 – 50 59 – 10 – 23 – 10 – 32 6 -11 – 12 -8 1 7 -7 6 1 Removed 4/18/69 Removed 9/19/69 Removed 9/19/69 Removed 9/19/69 Removed 4/18/69 4/18/69 Removed 12/30/69 Removed 4/18/69 Removed 4/18/69 Thl' Bulle-tul is T,ubhshcd for your OtlVClllt'nrc ,tnd ,nrOlm …tlon anu II; 110t Iln offr to or.-l. snll(,lt.ttlon to bu any dls.ussed The 17fmffiRtlOf1 was obtnmed from .,OUTrt, we ht,JllH'lo I.. \l'lmh., hut we do not gu,ullntl' Its 1\('('UI.u'y & Cn, In(' nntllt!! Offi('('T'Io, nllcrtors or may have lIn tnl!'rc;l In or pUILhH'l lin.' ….l1th. to h,Iln 'WN-916 'I' W—-a-l-s-ltnocn–&—C–o-. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABEll'S'RECOMMENDED LIST .Price as Price of date 12/31/69 Date Recom- or date Dresser Ind. Recom. mended Removed . 3/17/67 ; 32 1/2 2S 7/8 General Cigar 1/17/69 32 1/s 19 3/S Gt. North. Paper 3/P/67 Olin Corp.. ,;4/22/66 Sharon Steel 7/S/66 37 3/4 54 22 2L 34 7/S 43 1/2 Change DJIA same o/a Time Change Period -11 – 4 – 39 -11 43 – 4 – 12 24 2 Stocks Removed 1965-68 (sixty-seven) 38 4 AVERAGE' 20 0 (Page 3) Current Comment Removed 9/19/69 Removed 9/19/69 Removed 9/19/69 R-e m oved -\ 9–/-19/6 Removed 3/10/69 SPECULATIVE PRICE APPRECIATION Allied Supermkt 9/B/67 20 Amer. Motors 2/2/68 13 7/S Campbell Chic. 12131/64 3 5/S Camp. Sciences 1/17169 221/4'' Dixilyn Corp. 9/29/69 28 Gibraltar Fin. 11/17/67 22 1/2 ct. West. Fin. 9/29/69 25 Kysor Ind 1/17/69 35 Macke Co. 2/2/68 19 1/2 Petrol. – —–r/rr/-SW-3 Pacific Petrol. 12/31/64 10 3/4 Penn Central Technicolor 9/S/67 5/5/67 67 22 5/S Tishman Realty 9/29/69 30 12 3/S 8 5/8 – 38 -11 – 37 – 7 Buy on dips. Hold 12 1/2 227 – 8 Buy on dips. 33 7/8 52 – 14 Buy 23 1/4 – 16 – 2 Hold 23 1/4 3 7 Buy on dips to 19. 20 1/2 – 17 -2 Buyl dips.to sup.at 25 5/S – 26 – 14 Hold 19 -2 –''T3 – – – 7 Hold 1'1–Buyf(jiMlTCil')3Rnfil– 24 1/8 124 – S Buy on dips. 2S 1/4 – 57 – 11 Buy on dips. 17 1/2 26 5/S – 23 -11 -11 – 2 Hold Hold, buy on dips. Auto. Data Proc. 1/17/69 69 3/4 Chris Craft 3/15/66 23 Electron.Spec. 3/8/68 27 Home Oil A 11/1S/66 21 Microwave Assoc.12/31/64 9 5/8 UMC Ind. 12/31/64 14 3/S Victoreen Leece 5/5/67 13 1/ 2 105 1/2 45 1/4 17 1/4 52 1/8 23 3/4 1B 3/s 13 1/2 51 96 – 36 148 146 27 0 – 12 -0 10 14 5 5 2 Removed 11/21/69 Removed 4/1S/69 Removed 4/18/69 Removed 4/1S/69 RemQved 4/1S/69 Removed 4/18/69 Removed 4/1S/69 Stocks Removed, 1965-6S (twenty-two) AVERAGE 61 4 — – – — 46 … o —….-…- t, Adjusted for stock split. Thls Bulle-tin lS puhhshed fot your 'onVLnI…n,e .-Ina tnfOtm.1.tlOn lnd 15 nol ,In olfu to sdl or a suhcltltH'n to buv Rnv secuntles dIscussed The mf()rmatlQn was oUUl.lncd from lOurct'! we belu..'v,– to 1.4 !t'liJ.blt', uut ….. c d0 not Its W…. & Co, Inc. an,j It Otfkt'IS, dneltors or emllloeec may have an Intere,t In 01 Jlurcha.e ,n,1 the M..lUlltll't n(.llt'4\ to helem. WN-916

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - January 16, 1970
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W—-d–l-s-Itnocn—&–C-o. Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 16, 1970 It would be difficult to imagine a market giving less clue as to future performance than last week's exhibition. The Dow gave up a bit more than 7 points, dropping to the 790 level on Monday and then drifted to 782.60 over the next four days. Volume figures on all five days were on the low side despite a late flurry of selling in glamour issues on Friday. The conventional wisdom would hold that the market is awaiting President Nixon's speech next week. Whether this is true or not is difficult to say. Most of the averages, for the moment at least, are holding above their December lows, and the next major clue as to the currents direction will be provided either by penetration of those lows or by ability to move ah-ead from arOu'i1d levelS. -. —- – -.– – – —'00- – -' Meanwhile, inspection of individual technical patterns reveals the usual goodly num- ber of favorably-situated issues which should be able to perform well in almost any kind of a market. We are, therefore, effective this week, adding six issues to our Recommended List. To the Quality & Long-Term Growth section of the list we are adding two companies in the food processing field – Kellogg Company and Campbell Soup. KELLOGG (40 1/2) accounts for more than 40 of the domestic output of ready-to-eat cereals, and the product mix was recently broadened by the 1969 purchase of Salada Foods, Ltd., a large Canadian food processor. Kellogg's long-term earnings record has been one of amazingly steady growth with earnings having increased quarter by quarter since mid-1959, and with nine dividend increases having taken place over the period. 1970 earnings should continue the trend with a good improvement over estimated 2. 50 The earnings growth pattern of CAMPBELL UP ( 5) a bit more erratic with results for the year ended last July unfavorabl f t a weeks' strike. Size- able recovery was seen in the October quarter of fisc ear, and an increase to the 1. 90 level for the year to end July -. 1 ,–.-.re three familiar consumer .-, names – Loew's Corporation, Rhein d Pll-ti and Singer Company. With the incli.l– sion of Lorillard, LOEW'S ( i interesting company. Three- made by hotel, the t n perations. With the full-year inclusion of Lorillard, earnings could sho . ver the 1. 83 shown in the year ended August,1969. It should be noted that, nt re part from the operating picture, the company held securities with a market value of .00 per Loew's share as of August, 1969. RHEINGOLD 3/4) is the eleventh largest brewery in the United States and the largest independent Pepsi Cola bottler in the world. New management has achieved a dra- matic turn-around since a deficit of 7t; was reported in 1967, and earnings have recovered to 1.42 in 1968, and an estimated 1. 70 this year. For 1970, results of 2.25 would ap- pear to be a' possibility. Thus, at present levels, the stock is selling at a sharp discqunt from other brewing issues, many of which command multiples of over 20 times estimated 1970 earnings. ..r.L – – R. SINGER COMPANY (82 1/2), in addition to its familiar sewing machines, has been materially changed by its merger with General Precision Equipment Company, and other diversification moves. The company has almost 2 billions of sales divided between con- sumer products, office equipment industrial products, military hardware and education and training. The company is expected to earn 4.90 for 1969 vs. 4.53 in the prior year, and should improve upon those results substantially in 1970. In the Speculative Price Appreciation section of the list we are adding AMERICAN PETROFINA (34 1/4) This company, controlled by Petrofina, S. A. of Belgium, is an integrated oil company with important petro-chemical interests distributing its output through some 3400 Fina stations in 17 Middle and South West states. A number of expansion moves have been undertaken of late and the company should be able to improve its estimated 1969 earnings of 2.70 to 3.05 or better in 1970. Under these conditions, the conservative mul- tiple on the stock could well improve substantially. All of the above stocks will be reviewed in greater detail in subsequent issues of this letter. Dow-Jones Ind. 782.60 Dow-.Tones Trans. 173.39 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThlS market l'ltci IS fOJ your onvcnH.'nre .Inl \nfonm,'hon Ind 1'1 not .In off…, to sell 01 n formation oLl,lIned flom MlUIC'- We whn't tu be ,I.IIlI. hut v., do nt)l gu.lr.tnlee Its AWTamOcmc!Qy('('s ml1 have an IlItCt('at In or !urlhase .Intl MOil the lef,,!rt',1 to heleln tn huy lin) .,r'UI,tws The Walo;ton R. Co, In(' .Ind Il, officer!. dllcctors or WN-301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - January 23, 1970
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Walston &Co. Inc –….;,– Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 23, 1970 About the best that can be said of last week's stock market is that, for a while at least, it stopped going down. With the Dow-Jones Industrials reaching a low of 770.72 on Tuesday — a level a shade above the lows of last December — a modest advance on unim- pressive breadth and light volume occurred on the middle three days of the week. On Friday however, prices dropped lower again, reaching an intra-day bottom of 774. 35. By the early part of the week, as had been previously forecast in this space, most of our short-term indicators had reached oversold territory, and with the market testing the December lows, the logical point for a rally had obviously occurred. However, a trend re- versaLconsists .OLtw9 things. anj second, some worthwhile momentum on the upside begins to tie -demonstrated. -ThfS-latter – factor was noticeable by its absence in last week's trading. Thus, on a short-term basis, at least, there are few signs of encouragement, and those few tend to be somewhat tentative. The December lows in the popular indices have so far held by a hair' s breadth. A number of issues have penetrated downtrend lines — not so much by any dramatic reversal but by lateral movements which violated the trends. The number of stocks making new lows has remained at a relatively low figure considering the level of the market, indicating continued downside exhaustion. All of these factors, of course, could change at a moment's notice. Paradoxically, all this weak short-term action is taking place at a time when the longer-term cyclical picture is slowly clarifying, and clarifying in a way which should pro- vide fuel for investor optimism. It is now almost 14 ullmarkethighsof 1968, a time during which most post-war bear ha u rse. It is, more- over, becoming extremely clear that the changes ginning to present themselves. f\ v A st market turn are be- Economic data being released daily is c my .of a business slowdown. In- dustrial production has been , uto es continue to drop, and Real Gross 0 quart. appaI'ent- that at least a slowdown, and has begun. Contrary ,thi i ion's illlish for stock prices. Let us remember that the onset of a recessi . ed immediately but generally some six months or so after the fact. e enough data at the moment to say with certainty that we are now in a rece '0, b en the data becomes available — and we think it will — it will probably indicate the recession began some time around October, 1969. This being the case, the ti for an important stock market bottom should be at hand. Let us document this by citing past experience. In the 1948-49 recession, the stock market reached its bottom seven months after the peak of economic expansion, and moved above its high for the peak month two months later. In the 1953-54 economic decline, the stock market low was reached two months after the business cycle peak and new highs were achieved two months after that. In the 1957-58 recession, the lead was three months, al- though it took a year to reach new highs. In the 1960-61 decline, the lows were reached five months after the business cycle peak, and new highs were being posted four months later. Now, if the recession began in October, we have already gone three months past the peak of economic activity, and it would be logical to expect a bottom in stock prices now or at any time within the next two to three months. It would be logical also to expect a move well above the 800 level on the Dow by mid-Summer, and also, in the light of previous ex- perience, a continued upswing after that. The fact that most stocks have been in long-term base building processes since last July, confirms the economic timing. In summary then, while the short-term outlook for the market remains negative and confused, the longer-term picture becomes increaSingly strong. The obvious corollary is that any immediate decline in the stock market which might take place would constitute an opportunity to add to long pull holdings. Dow-Jones Ind. 775.61 Dow-Jones Trans. 170.24 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AW.Tamb This mArket let\;('r IS publl'lhl.od for )OIJr COnVenl('nCe nnd InfOlm'ltinn and IS not Itn offer to s1\ or It soht'ltatlOn to bu) an) discussed Thl;! In- formallon Wit nhtamed from we Il('h(v(! to he rehab!.. but …. e ilo not guarantee Its accun\cy & Co Inc ROil lls officers. ihrl'Cwrs or employees may have an Interest In or l1urch.ll.'lt anrl StJJ the St'tUlltle, lcftrred to herem WN30

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 30, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 30, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - January 30, 1970
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Walston &Co. t nc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Prine, pal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS lABEll'S MARKET LETTER January 30, 1970 The short-term action of the stock market continues to be, in a word, abysmal. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average continued its sltde which began a week ago, declining sharply on all five days of the week and reaching an intra-day bottom of 739. 11 on Friday. A number of analysts are at the moment trying to pinpoint a downside target for the Dow, and the most common figure being hea.rd is the 1966 low of 735.74. We think tha.t trying to set targets in a market which has developed the downside momentum of the present one is an exercise in futility. The market, it is true, is deeply oversold, but i n downswings oLihi stype therna vicious. portionof.the, declineusually the stage when the market is in a deep oversold position. There is, therefore, no evidence to expect any sort of a turn near-term unttl clearcut reversal symptoms manifest them- selves. We do, however, continue to feel, for the reasons outlined in our last few letters, that the turn when it comes could well constitute one of the most important buying opportu- nities of recent years, and for long-term investors our basic policy would be one of adding stocks on weakness. Many reasons have been advanced for the current drop — some persuasive, some verging on the fanciful. One argument centers on the record high bond yields now available. Sure, stocks are cheap, the argument runs, but with good 20-year bonds yielding 90/0, fixed income securities make a better investment for the long term holder. As a matter of fact we think that, at the moment, there are persuasive reasons for including bonds in a portfolio. However, we also feel term, as constrast ed to the immediate future, bonds, even at 90/0, are going a be I ndtl inferior to equities for all types of investors. The reason is, of a b ga mflation. Let us take a look at what inflation does to a nd. ill assume for a moment a long-term inflation rate of 2 1/20/0, which t verage for the past 23 years. .. what . – .r to retur2,l ' ment First of all, taxes get at it r ,-if is reauced to 4.50. Tlien inflatlOn (not tax deductible first year return of 4. 50 after taxes is reduced to 4. 39. th 10th e ft&St-;;-x return is only 3.49 in constant dollars, and in the 20th year it is he average over a 20-year period is Just under 3,50 or 3 1/20/0 n w The payoff in 20 years will be in depreciated dollars so that the bondhold re e, in 1970 dollars, only 60. 20. He has paid, in effect, a premium of 39. 80 for hi nd and this premium should properly be amortized at the rate of 1. 99 per year. T' rings the first year's return down to 2.40, the 10th year return to 1. 51, and the 20th year return to It all averages out to the fact that the after-tax, constant-dollar return on a 20-year 90/0 bond is 1 1/2. Suppose inflation slows down Even at a 1 rate of inflation the return figured as above is only 3.15. At around 5 of inflation, the return actually becomes negative. By contrast, what do we need to equal a l l / 2 net real dollar rate of return in the stock market First of all, we need to find stocks that are yielding in excess of 3' — not difficult today. Next, we need the reasonable expectation that dividend income from these stocks over the long term will grow at a rate in excess of 2 1/2 annually — not terribly diffIcult either since every stock in the Dow-Jones Utility Average, for example, has com- fortably exceeded this rate of dividends over the past ten years. Lastly, we'need the expectation that the stock portfolio will grow in value at a bit over 3, allowing for capital gains taxes at the 250/0 rate. Obviously, none of the above constitutes unreasonable expectations for the long-term equity investor. Thus, despite apparently astronomical high interest rates at the moment, the long- term expected return on fixed income securities remains decidedly inferior to that offered by common stocks. For better or worse, the investor wishing adequate return on his capita must seek it in the equity market. Dow-Jones Ind. 744.06 Dow-Jones Trans.163. 72 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb ThiS market letter 15 published (or )our ConVenlLn((' tlm\ IIIforTnnlton and h not ,In off.., to sell or ,\ 'lOhl'ltntlOn to hu) dill secuntl('s dIscussed The 111- IormntJOn obtamed from rourceI we Il1'h('\'(' to 11' Tf'llflhk', hut we do not gmlrRntee Its IIccurcy, \\'nIRton F.. Co Inc and Its affieell. dlrcetor'! or rna) have an interest III or '.U1('hn…e 1wd sell thc n,rcl\,'i to hefLin. WN.sol

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