Viewing Year: 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 20, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 20, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - September 20, 1963
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Mrill !lei',' S rH' Y ol'k Siock E.TChange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 20, 1963 After holding between roughly 745 and 735 for almost two weeks, the Dow-Jones In- dustrial average finally broke out on the upside of the narrow trading area to reach an intra- day high of 749. 27 on Friday. Neither the Utilities nor the Rails were willing to participate in the advance. The Utility average is still within the 142-145 range in which it has held since mid-August, and the Rails are still below the June intra-day high of 177.92. The failure of the Rails and Utilities to move ahead with the Industrials casts some doubt on the near term action of the market. As for the longer term pattern, we see no reason to alter our constructive attitude. Since the 1962 May-June lows, we have felt that the market was in a broad reaccumulation area tharwould ultffia tely resUIflril. higher level of prices overthe longer term. 'Our basic investment philosophy has been to buy on weakness. The Cuban crisis last October, and the declines in March and July of this year, offered such opportunities. We believe that the accumulative process continues, but it has not taken place in all stocks at the same time. As a result, we are having, and will continue to have, selective market action. Various groups and individual issues, from a technical viewpoint, are in various stages of the pattern. Some groups, like the oils, have been building up accumulation bases for a long period of time. The oils are one of the groups that did not break their 1960 lows in 1962. They have completed their base patterns and indicate l1igher levels over the longer term. Other issues are still in the early stages of breaking out of base patterns, and others are still in the process of forming bases. Still other issues are probably in the final stages of a bear market and have not even started their base patterns. As we have continually stressed, in an overall patt n . rtiture, the action of individual issues and groups is of much more That is why we have not set any price objective on t t a e c' of the averages. s is move. The figure of 800 is often mentioned by commentators. see no justification for this figue. We susp mate for the Dow-Jones Industnals ally m chnical point of view, we l ' arr', , at,by using a earning,s esti- c hzmg-lt at'twenty-tlmes-earmngs; – Actually, the base count of 730; suggests 760. The only other s the averages held from April to August for the Industrial average is to consider the 1960 low of 565 upside objective w There has b c ns' e 5 part of a broad base pattern. In this event, the r above 800 for the longer term. e discussion of late on the unfavorable near term action of market breadth. T b th theory has gained considerable public following recently and is evidently being , ly used. We have been using breadth action for a long time, but mainly on a long We have found that the minor deviations of breadth are quite confusing and extremely difficult to interpret, The longer term signals occur only occasion- ally and in the past have been proven quite valuable as witness the poor action of the breadth index in 1961. The only important signals are given when a major divergence occurs between the averages and the breadth index. At this point, our long term breadth index is moving along in about the same pattern as the average and there is no major deviation at the moment. Therefore, subject to normal technical corrections of 30/0 to 50/0, we continue to believe the trend is upward. Our original recommendations since mid-1962 were largely confined to issues that did not break their 1960 lows in 1962 because, from a technical point of view, these issues indicated that they were already in an advanced stage of an accumulation pattern. These groups included airlines, automobiles, oils, rails, textiles and utilities, among others; So far, these groups have been largely the market leaders since the 1962 low. As time has gone on, however, and new base patterns have been forming, we have included issues in other groups in our recommended list. For example, the paper group has in the last couple of months shown improving technical action and is now among our favorite groups. Another in- teresting group that has shown rather disappointing action in recent markets has been the machine tool group. It has been moving sideways while the market has advanced, but both the teclinical pattern and the fundamentals suggest a possible upside breakout over the not too far distant future. Sundstrand (22 1/2) and Ex-Cell-O (38 1/2) are a part of our recom- mended list. Some further patience may be needed, but this group indicates interesting long term potentials. Dow-Jones Ind. – 743.60 Dow-Jones Rails 173.11 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not. and undCI no elreumlltnnccq IS to be const! l1ed as, nn offer tu ..ell!)) II Hohdtnh,, tn btl) IIny securihcli reCel1 cd 'to herein The Information contained herein IS not gunrnntcN as to nCCl1rncy or coml'leteneqs and the (UI nwhllll! thcleuf I not, and Ilmlet no CllCUlmltancC'! 1'1 to be constilled as, tI relll escntll hon b) Walston & Co., Inc All elCpreslons of OpIniOn are BubJect to ('hun)!c \qthullt notl('(' Walbtlln ell, Inc nnel 01(1('('1'1., DIICCt01S. Stod.hoillcrb IIno. thereof, sell and may hllve an Interest m the !lecuntlCs mcntmncd hCleill rnnlket lettel IS jlltemlctl nnd llre!cnted merely aB II J,lenerllt. mformal commentnlY on day to day market news and nol as a cumplete AddltUlnlll miUlmatlOn 'Ith 1('I1)('('t to lin)' ..erUllhe. I'cferlcd to hCl'eln \\111 he furmshed u,pon request \\-.. 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 27, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 27, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - September 27, 1963
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– femhers Xell' York Stnck E.l'cha11ye flL IE NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES CQA,ST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 27, 1963 The Dow-Jones Industrials reached a new intra-day high of 753.04 on Wednesday. This price level intermediate term objective indicated by the 730- 685 base formed during April-August. The new high was followed by a sharp decline with the Industrials reaching an intra-day low of 731. 55 on Friday. Short term breadth has been deteriorating for the past two weeks and the averages appear headed for somewhat lower levels over the short term. There is no important top pattern in the Industrial average, but a normal technical one-third to one-half correction of the 68-point advance from the July low of 684.41 would bring the average back to the 730- t'720-range-'I'he 'pote-ntial- top In-the-Ra ibledeciine-'to the-165 -1'60 .- support level. Despite the poor action of short term breadth, the longer term pattern has not I i changed. As we mentioned in last week's letter, we prefer to follow the major changes in market breadth rather than attempt to interpret the short term fluctuations. As yet, under our interpretation, there has been no major divergence between breadth and the averages. Both indices reached new high territory above the June high and the 1961 high early in September. The averages continued to move ahead by a small amount (about 10/0) for two more weeks while the long term breadth index declined. This, in our opinion, is a short term indication rather than of longer term significance. At the moment, both indices are moving down together. A major divergence would occur if, on the next rally, the average reaches new high territory and this action is not confirmed by the breadth index. Even if this occurs, it is usually a preliminary warning signal. rallied back to about its previous high after giving a Industrial average It was twelve months before the market declined drastically. In er continued ahead to new high territory after giving a warning breadth sigi\!aGrAlnd it s almost eight months be- Lfore a drastic decline occurred. In the breadth index showed a diver- . . .a..new high.a'!Q..c!i9 not decline . drastically until seven months later. i f ).l!!.-, possible that the long term breadth I index will, on the next t action of the shorter term in- dex. If that occurs, we ould our ba lC investment philosophy to selling on strength' rather than our prese t otJA)\o u' on weakness. Breadth a ' . l b'hPy of many indicators that must be used in a technical ap- proach to the market. T indicates that the marke e action of individual stocks on point and figure graphs still in a long term accumulation area and different issues and groups are in various stages forming long term base patterns that will eventually result in a higher price level. Unfortunately, in order to form a base, a stock must move down as weI as up. It has been our opinion for quite some time that, after the drastic 1962 decline, the market would have to spend a lengthy period in backing and filling in a trading range. This p'rocess of stocks moving from weaker hands to stronger hands takes time. We believe it is taking place in a large number of issues, but individual issues are at different stages of development and, therefore, the actlOn of individual issues is of much more importance than the action of the averages. We continue to advocate the policy instituted in mid-1962 of buying on weakness. We would suggest the following issues for purchase for long term capital appreciation at price levels m.entIoned below – . . . .-.. . . Beaunit Corp. Cenco Instruments Clark Equipment Container Corp. Cluett Peabody Disney, Walt First Charter Fin. 26-25 47-45 42-40 32-30 47-45 40-38 40 International Minerals Korvette (E. J.) Inc. Storer Broadcasting Sundstrand Corp. Swingline, Inc. United Fruit U. S. Plywood 56-55 30-28 40-38 23-22 35-33 22-20 60-58 Dow-Jones Ind. 737. 98 Dow-Jones Rails 170.165lils l'IU. -'L.i EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. n\nr\et Il!tWI IS not. and undcl no ClrCl1mstnnc('S 1; to be con.,tll1c(\ no., nn ..tre! to …ell UI n ;Uhtlt.ltlU to buy ,InY ,CCUlltlC, I efl'll 1',111 hel ('In The mfl111atltln 'untmllcfl lereln lb nut gl1,nantc(,j tOl1c('nrucy 01 ('ompleteness find the the-I('ur h nul, lU.1 un.lt'l nn (II UI11't,111I C-. 1-. to hc 'UII.,tllll.. I1 11 lle.,ent.t. lIOn hy 'nlston & Co, In!' All of OillnIOn lllL' bulll'lt to \\lth,,l l1lIl'C V.'uhtn &; ClI, Irw, und Dllcctnls, Rtl;(')hohlclb l!HI …c' thl.'rcof, llUILhn'e, clI 'lnl\ mny hn\(' nn In thc mcntloned h,ICIIl I11nl)e1 lettel lIItell,I('.i ,inti m('lcly Ii… n 1!('lIct,d, mformlll commcntury on flny to rlny nlJ.rket ne nlld nnt nb 0. completc Addltlnnl ItlfmmnllOn ith I('.Jlccl In ,til) ICfetled to hC1CItl wll be fUI Illsh('d u,pnn request.. \\ .'. ,1)1 .-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - October 04, 1963
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W—-a–l-s-tloncn–&—-C–o-. Jfrlllhel's Srll' rod, Stock E.rchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OffiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVER.SEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 4, 1963 The Dow-Jones Industrial average declined to the suggested 730-720 area on Monday to reach an 728. ;36 .. This was a 37 retracement of the 68-point advance from the July low'of 684. 41to the September high of 753.04. This falls within the normal technical correction pattern of a retracement of a third to a half of the previous advance. The Industrial average rallied back to an intra-day high of 750.98 on Friday, and thus re- covered the greater part of the 25 -point decline from the high. Neither the rails nor the utilities participated in the advance to any great extent, and it is probable that some further consolidation is needed. As this letter has continuously stressed, the action of individual. stocks continues to .' m ofmuClFiYlOre'importancethan that'of 'the'averages- The Industrial-av-era-ge-ha13-adva'nc-ed– 42 from the May-June 1962 low to the recent high. During this same period, one stock in the Industrial average, Chrysler, has advanced 350, while another stock in the average, Bethlehem Steel, has advanced only 5. The overall pattern still suggests a broad reaccu- mulation pattern in most stocks with ultimately higher levels indicated. This pattern is probably not complete. In the course of the forma tion, there will be periods when the market, becomes temporarily overbought and corrective reactions will occur. The important thing will be the ability to correctly time the price action of individual issues and to buy them durmg such periods of market weakness. In the present stage of the long term pattern, the market averages appear to act only as a background to individual issues. Favorably situated issues move into new high territory when the background is favorable, and issues in an earlier phase of development enlarge their potential periods of general market weakness. It is interesting to note that many of th t c . ffie Dow-Jones Indus- trial average that have shown the best price action rtheJ\p e been the stocks that reached their previous highs a long time before the ysler, for example, reached its previous high of 50 (adjusted) reached its previous high in 1957, and Gene ck i5.ndardOilofNeWJerSey ors ' 59. These issues have been in aC,curnula.tiQnphasesJor, of There are ma;;y i'ssues of;- I' qwilitithat appearto be- forming broad – accumulation patterns. Beaun C often been mentioned in these letters. Up until now the stock has yarns and staples ts rise. The company is a leading producer of rayon nce on tire cord resulted in an erratic earnings pat- tern over recent ye it a of 3. 12 per share in reported earnings for 1959, and a low of 1. 60 in 1960. he is now selling at 13 times the last twelve months earnings of 2.00 and yields 4. n the l. 20 dividend. The company IS attempting to concentrate to a greater extent in fiber manufacture. Tire yarns 'now account for only 20 of sales with textile yarns 35, and fabrics 45. Beaunit has started work on a new plant to produce high wet modulous modified rayon staple fiber. This type of rayon is in short supply because, blended with cotton, it enhances the desirable qualities of pure fine cotton. This and other developments could result in a more stable growth pattern in the hitherto erratic earnings. The stock has done little marketwise in recent years. Since 1959, it has held in a trading range between a high of 30 in 1959 and a low of 16 in 1960. On the favorable side, the 1962 low of 18 held above the 1960 10w.Beauni has built up a sizable potential base pattern and, from a technical viewpoint, ability to brea out on the upside of this long trading range would be a constructive development. The stock should be bought during periods of market correction for long term accounts interested mainly in capital appreciation. We have noted the improving action of issues in the paper group. Crown Zellerbach 53 1/8, Great Northern Paper 48 1/4 and Union Bag-Camp (40) are part of our recom- mended list. On market weakness to the 30-32 level, we would add Container Corp.(33 3/8) to the list. It is the largest unit in the paperboard-container industry and should be a prime beneficiary of the improving pattern in the industry. Technically, it has shown extremely favorable action and has broken out of a long trading area in which it has held since 1958. Good downside support should be found around the 30 level. Dow-Jones Ind. 745.06 Dow-Jones Rails 170,93 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIS rnnrketlettcr h. not and under no Clrcumbtance;; 15 to he cClnsh ued as nn offer to ..ell or II suitCltnilon tn bll' an serlllltlc., I erell cd 1,) hel em The Infm mnbon ('flntained herem Ib nut j,!unranteed a; to nccurncy or nnd the thereuf I' nut. nnll 1I11,1(,1 IlO ('II e IS te) he tiM nt. n twn by & Co. Inc All 'If oplnmn nee 1I1IhJecl to chnngc wlthut notwe & eu. IIIL. IIlHI OffICCl'll. Ducctl …. Sto('J..h()ldcIII unci Employees ther('Of, Illucha'le, sell nnrl mny hll\e an III the me1ltl'I1('(1 heleltl Thlt, malJ..et let tel IS mtcndc,l and Ilretellted merely 1\ l!enernL mfrmnl cnmmentrllY on rin)' to Iny market nc…. b and not as n complete nnui)''lh AcllitlnllllllfulmatHm …. Ith ICle('t to IIny '('('I1lt\('S 11'ruled to hl'lem \\111 hI' ….. fuenlshed I.UJOIl rellucst \\-., 11)1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - October 11, 1963
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Walston &CO. —-Inc —- Membel'R .Yell' YO/'k' Stork Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 11, 1963 The following is an outline of an address by the writer to the Fifth Regional Conven- tion of The New York Society of Security. Analysts, Inc., at the New York Hilton on October 7th. Because of the time element, we will have to interpret the technical action of the stock market in terms of the various averages rather than in terms of individual issues. This is far from a satisfactory procedure. The market has become far too complex to be explainErl by the use of a single index number. Both the Dow-Jones 30-Stock Industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 425-Stock Industrial index have advanced about 42 from the May-June low, but this percentage advance .Bethlehe Steel, which has advanced only 5. Earlier in the year we expressed the opinion that 1963 would probably be an 'inside year' with the Industrial averages neither making a new high nor a new low as compared to the 1961-1962 range. We narrowed this possible trading range down to 750-650 for the Dow- Jones Industrials. If we had the opportunity of revising the earlier forecast we would only add the possibility of an upside breakout of this range late in 1963 or early in 1964. For the shorter term, the averages have reached most of their upside objectives and probably need some consolidation. The base formed in May and October of 1962 between 525 and 625 in the Dow-Jones Industrials indicated a possible advance to the 700-725 level. After reaching a high of 732 in early June of this year, the Industrials declined to 685 in late July. The potential base pattern built up in the 732-685 range indicated an upside potential of 760. This has been approximately reached at the recent hig f order to indicate much higher levels at the moment, a further consolidating rl needed, This could occur in within the 750-720 area. In the meantime, t em th index has been showing unfavorable action and the failure of the Rai Uti rage to confirm the new high in the Industrials adds an element of How low can the market go at this s inty. the et pattern The averages are back to where-,they were almost.twO'ym i r' e 1962 market the vul- nerability that existed at ei' formed in the averages and in r i Only relatively minor tops have been A normal technical correction of one-third to a half of the advance f u 0 f 685 would bring the average back to the 730-720 area from where a s med. It would appear improbable that a correction of the entire advance f ea ne low of 525 is in the cards at the moment. A one-third advance would bring the Industrials hack to about 675 – which appears unlirely unles e sudden and unexpected outside development enters the pattern. The longer term pattern, in our opinion, is most constructive and a higher level of prices is indicated. While the averages are selling at about the same level as at the market top of 1961, the pattern in individual stocks is quite different. In 1961, many stocks appearel to be in the final phase of a major bull market and had sizable top patterns. Today, many stocks appear to be in the early stages of a bull market with substantial potential bases indi- cating higher levels. How could this transformation occur within the short time period of eighteen months The answer is that it did not. The market, as measured by individual stocks did not reach its high in December, 1961. Individual issues were topping out in a five-year period between 1956 and 1961. The market, as measured by individual stocks, did not reach its low in May-June 1962, and quickly form a broad base. Base patterns have been forming in individual stocks for a three-year period between 1960 and 1963. Individual stocks are in different stages of technical development at the moment, but long term constructive patterns predominate. This diverse pattern in individual stocks is not reflected in the pattern of the averages. In the conclusion, the market is headed higher over the longer term, but the rise will be selective. The skilful trader may be able to take advantage of temporarily overbought periods in the market, but the longer term investor, not concerned with the shorter term trends, should welcome declines as a buying opportunity. Our basic investment policy conti- nues to be one of being a buyer on weakness. EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 741. 76 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 169.39 ThIS market Jette! IS not. nnd under nn tu he const1 lied us, nn uffer to ..ell 01 1\ bohcitntHln tIl lollY nny ,ile I dell ttl h(,ll'1J\ The Infl mallon ('unt.llned herein II nut I!unranlced ns to 'l('curucy 01 completeness nnd the CUI nl.bllll! tbelevf ,.. nul. nm! 1In11('1 un 1 to I.oe llm..t, \led n, 1'111 t …entn- t!Un by Walston &. Cu Inc All f oll1nHn nre ..uhJect to chull)!e wlthut Iln(l('. Woh,(cn &. CII, Jill', 1'l1111 Offlcel… , lllltl Employees thereof, nnd mllY hu.\'e an Interest til the mentlOIleil hetel Thl ml1rhet Jettel I meleh 1l'l11 I!cncrlll mformlli commentary on day to market ne…. s Ilnd not as a complete annh'''I' Adthhnnni mfOimlltlnn Ith I(o.pe('t 10 no) ll'fell(!i to helem \\ill he fUIIlIhcd \1,Pon request \\.\ WI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - October 25, 1963
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Walston &- Co. —–lnc —– Membe)' XCI/' rod, Stllrk EO'change F /L . NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 25, 1963 Although.the.fwtw;a.s little.noed, .Thursday of last week constituted an anniversary. It was on October 24, 1962 that the Dow-Jones Industrial average posted a low of 549. 65. The subsequent year saw a largely-uninterrupted advance into newall-time high ground and, in- deed, the average celebrated the first birthday of the bull market by again reaching new all- time high territory on Friday. As many investors are aware, however, the sharp advance in the averages has not produced a uniform upward trend in individual issues. The advance of the past year has, in fact, been highly selective. Moreover, it is wort pointing out that selectivity has a tendency to increase as bull markets reach a more mature stage. This is a fact worth noting with the present upswing..!'10\y9yer old.. . .. It is easyto the diversity of market action thus far The Standard & Poor's 500-Stock index reached a new high along with the Dow last week It is possible to sub-divide the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock index into some 58 industry groups. Only 11 of these 58 groups had also posted new 1963 highs as of last Wednesday. In fact, the number of group in- dices that reached their highs many months ago is rather astounding, considering the overall advance in most averages. Six group indices topped out in January and February. By the be- ginning of June more than a third had reached their 1963 highs,and two-thirds had reached their peak by mid-SepLember. The following compilation shows the date on which each of the components of the 500-Stock index made its 1963 high. Vegetable eil Cosmetics Vending Mach. Shoes Aerospace Finance Confectionery Shipbuilding Tobacco 1/16 1/23 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 4/3 4/10 4/17 Railroad Equip. 6/5 Paper Containers 9/25 Shipping 6/5 Household Appliance 9/25 Beverage-Brewers 6/12 9/25 Container, Metal-Glass 6/19 ft 10/2 Railroads 6/2fl(O./l t mo . 10/16 Gold.Mining 8/2trv; Ho urnishings 10/16 Texhles ce & Business Equip. 10/1) Small Loans 8 Paper 10/16 –Auto -9 Soaps — – 1-0/16 Chemicals Copper 5/8 5/22 Oi ,f4 Air Transport Distillers 10/23 10/23 Electric. Equip. Mach. Tools 5/ Mach. Agric. 5/22 Aluminum 6/5 Auto Trucks 6/5 Bldg. Materials 6/5 Mach. Composite 6/5 Motion Picture 6/5 e e , Misc. all Stores Steel Fertilizers Food Textile Products 9/5 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/18 9/18 9/18 Coal Electronics Lead & Zinc Radio & TV Broad. Radio & TV Mfgrs. Sugar Composite Sulphur Synthetic Fibers Tires & Rubber 10/23 10/23 10/23 10/23 10/23 10/23 10/23 10/23 10/23 Since many groups reached 1963 highs early in the bull market, it follows that a good many have been in downtrends fOT some time. Some of these downtrends have been fairly steep. Sixteen groups, as of Wednesday, were selling more than 50/0 below their 1963 peaks, thus confounding the many investors who bought at those peaks and watched the averages move into new high ground as their Own stocks were going down. The following industry grou indices are now down 50/0 or more from their 1963 highs Vegetable Oil -5.00/0, Publishing -5.10/0, Shipping -5. 50/0,'Shoes -5.70/0, Metals, Misc.- -5. 90/0, Auto Trucks -7.80/0, Motion Pic- tures -8.00/0, Confectionery -8.50/0, Finance -9.30/0, Shipbuilding -9.40/0, Tobacco -10.20/0, Gold Mining -11. 50/0, Brewers -11. 60/0, Machine Tools -13.10/0, Aerospace -13.40/0, Vending Mach. -22.40/0. All this is intended to demonstrate the fact that capital gains become harder to a- chieve and the risk of capital loss becomes greater each day that the market advances. This in no way alters the constructive long-term opinion repeatedly expressed by this letter. It does, however, stress the need for vigorous stock selection and willingness on the part of the investor to make necessary changes in his portfolio as the market upswing becomes more mature. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 755.61 Dow-Jones Rails 171. 50 WALSTON & CO. INC. lTIaJ kct Jet tel' b not, nnd undel no Circumstances I'; to lie lied IS, nn utre! tu VI n suliCllatu'll to buy any 1efcll cd In hel em The Infol tlll1tl,ln cunltllncd herem IS nut I!lIlll antced to l.('curacy or eompictenc;,s nnd the (til nlshllll! thel cor ,… nut, nnd IIllde! 110 ('II cum.,tnm e-. I tu be a. n rt'IJI e.,('utn- tWII by \\'nlstofl & Co, All e'CpreSMUflb of IIplnlOn nre hllhJ(('t to chnnl.c wlthNlt I\otl('e Wnibtnn & Cll, InC, Ilild Dlledms. StucJ..hull\clh nnd therror, llt11chn.,e, sell nn(1 mny hu\(' nn mtclebt m the nH'llhllncd hC1Cill 'lhl-' mrllJ..et lett!,,1 IS lntClllcd 1I111111CClltcd mcr('ly n j.'CIICl1t1 IIlfOlllWI ('ommentnlY all IIny to dny nHllkct new! IIl1d not ns n complete nrUlIh AthhtlHnni infOlmntlon \\Ith Jepc('t til lin), -'C('Ulltll\ to hClcm …. 111 he furfllhed Il.POn request. \\.. ,I)

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - November 01, 1963
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Walston &Co. Inc. Melllle, ,YeH' York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 1, 1963 …The. Dow,Jor.J.e.sJndustr.ial av.er.age-reached.a new intra-day high of 767.24 on Tuesday, but our long term breadth index failed to confirm the rise. This is the first major breadth divergence that has occurred since the advance from the Cuban crisis lows of October, 1962, and indicates a more cautious attitude toward the market over the intermediate term. These major divergences between breadth and the market averages have been very helpful in the past. Only four have occurred since 1956. The warning signal is usually given quite some time before the market actually declines. For example, our long term breadth index gave a warning signal in August, 1961 when the Industrial average was selling around the 720 level. The average continued to move ahead moderately and reached an ultimate top in December, 1961 at 741, and did not actually turn Clown sharply until'Aprilor'1962 to reach a low of 525. Thus, there was plenty of opportunity to sell on strength. The same thing oc- curred in early 1959. Our breadth index gave a warning signal in April when the Industrial average was around the 625 level after a rise from 420 in late 1957. The average continued its advance to 685 in August and reached this level again in the first week of 1960 before the start of the decline to 565 in October 1960. Here again there was ample opportunity to sell on strength. The warning signal given in August 1956 was not followed by a new high in the averages, but the April 1956 high of 524.37 was approached again at 523.11 in June, 1957. It was over a year after the warning signal was given before the market turned down to reach a low of 420 in October, 1957. The pattern today could follow somewhat the same format as the three previous instan ces outlined above, but the timing will probably be quite the moment there is no indication of a major top and individual stocks still indi t t ssibility of new highs. The deviation signal indicates a loss of momentum r swing that has last d sixteen months and has advanced 45 as measured gradual program of lightening intermediate term tr' verage. It suggests a 0 ength. The long term in- /I vestor, not concerned with temporarily peno n the markets, should maintain his .position selected Sl,der, will probably have numerous on the upside and downside. , As far as the longer f is concerned, we continue to maintain a constructive attitude. h at the market is in a broad reaccumulatim area as far as most indO id I s r ncerned. It is difficult to relate this pattern to the ac- tion of the various r s. As we have stated before, the market reached its high, as measured by the In r verage, in December, 1961, but individual issues were topping out in a five-year perio etween 1956 and 1961. The market, as measured by individual issues, did not reach s low in May-June 1962 and quickly form a broad base. Base patterns have been forming in individual stocks for a three-year period between 1960 and 1963. Indi- vidual stocks are in different stages of development, but long term constructive patterns pre dominate. It is probable that the base patterns need broadening in many cases and the result will be a continued consolidation in terms of the Industrial average. The range so far in 1963 has been 767 high and 656 low. From a technical viewpoint, the Industrial average has reached its upside potential of 760. In order to indicate much higher levels at the moment, a new pattern will have to be formed. With the advance now in a mature stage, and with breadt action showing deterioration, it is possible that the Industrial average will move toward the lower level of the 1963 range. A normal one-third to one-half technical correction of the ad- vance from the July low of 685 would brmg the Industrial average back to 740-725. A com- plete correction of the entire advance from the May-June low of 525 to 767 would result in a decline to 685- 645. Continued diversity will occur as far as individual issues are concerned. In the presen phase of the market pattern, it would seem advisable to build up some 'cash reserves as up- side objectives are reached. For example, General Motors (86 7/8) had an upside objective of 88 and reached 91 3/8. International Busmess Machmes (488 1/2) had an upside objective of 500-550. It reached the lower part of this area dunng the past week. Both stocks, which were advised for purchase in June 1962, are removed from our recommended list. A com- pletely revised list, with current changes, will be obtainable from Account Executives late next week. ………. -,,)AY- Dow-Jon,es Ind. 753. 73 Dow-Jones Rails 170.56 EDMUND W. TABELL -WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market Jctter not. Dnd no CI1'cum;lnnces I! to be construed nb, an nffct tn '1ell 01 tl ….heilatln tu nny o;eelllitle., I CfCl1 ell 'ttl herem The mCnl mnhon CDntnmed herem is not ).tunrnntced n'l to llCCUfllCY or find the flu ni-.hllll! (heleuf nut. fino tIllltet no tlICIlIn'ltnnt'e to bc ctmtllwd a, II leplc,,cnta- lion by Wlliston & Co, InL All C'l(pre;j(ln of upmiun nrc lubJcct to chau!!c w,th,,t 110tltC Wah.ton & CIl, lnl. IIlld Officer, unt! Employees th(!reof, IlUlehase, sell and mny hav(! In mterest III the mcnt101ned hel elll Th,.., mal het Jettel I Intended and Ilre..,enletl merely a., a t.!cnerlli mformal commentnry on tlay to day market news and nut a a complete unaly… Ad.l1twnnlll1f01nwtllm Ith le-lleet to .IllY e(ll1cb lefLllceI to helem Will be furmllhed uPon request \\.\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 06, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 06, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - November 06, 1963
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Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS EDMUND W. lABEll'S RECOMMENDED LIST QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH Close Qual- 11/4/63 !!Y Comment Caterpillar Tract. 46 5/8 A Hold Corning Glass 196 1/2 A Hold for 250 Crown Zellerbach 52 5/8 A- Hold for 60 DuPont 251 AI- Hold Gulf Oil 47 3/8 A Buy at 42 Minn. Mining Penney, J. C. Royal Dutch Stand. Oil N. J. Woolworth Close Qual- 11/4/63 J!L Comment 65 5/8 A Hold for 7!H10 44 7/8 A Hold 45 5/8 A Buy at 40 72 A Buy at 65-62 75 A- Hold PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- 11/4/63 2.!L Comment Atchison, Top. SF 28 1/4 A- Buy at 28 Beauhit Corp. 27 3/8 B Buy at 27-25 Burlington Ind 40 1/4 B Holdfor 45-50 Cenco Inst. 49 5/8 B Buy at 45 Clark Equipment 43 3/4 A- Buy at 40-38 Cluett, Peabody 55 1/2 13 Buy at 50 Consol. Coal 48 3/4 A- Buy at 45 Copper Range 24 1 8 B Buy at 21 Denver, Rio Grande 21 1/2 B Buy at 20 Disney, Walt 42 7/8 B Buy at 40-38 Ex-CeU-O 37 3/8 A Buy at 36 First Charter Fin. 34 7/8 Hold Fruehauf Trailer 28 1/4 B Buy at 26 Int'l Min Chern. 63 3/4 B Buy at 58-56 Kansas City So.Ind 42 3/4 A- Buy at 40-38 Kerr McGee 37 3/4 A- Buy at 34- 32 Korvette Close Qual- 11/4/63 .!!L Comment 37 5/8 – Buy at 33-30 Litton Ind 80 B Buy at 75-70 McDermott 23 5/8 Buy at 22-21 Midland-Ross 60 1/8 B Buy-Hold Newmont Min. 88 1/4 A- Hold Pittston Co 60 B Buy at 55 Raytheon Co 23 1/4 Buy at 20-18 Reynolds Metal 31 7/8 B Buy at 30-28 Schlumberger 61 Buy at 54-52 Stevens, J. P. 33' 7/8 B Buy at 32-30 Storer Broad. 41 1/2 B Buy at 38-36 Sundstrand 22 1/4 B Buy at 21-20 Swingline A 37 1/4 Buy at 36-34 Union Bag-Camp 40 B Buy at 38 United Fruit 21 3/8 B Buy at 21-20 U. S. Plywood 60 3/4 A- Buy at 55 Univ. Oil Prod. 31 7/8 B Buy at 30-28 LOW-PRICED SPECULA TIVE Close Qual- Audio Devices 11/4/63 .i.!L Comment 12 5/8 B- Hold Braniff Airways 11 5/8 B Hold Campbell Chibou. 3 C Hold El Paso Nat! Gas 17 5/8 B Buy at 17-16 Foote Mineral 11 5/8 B Buy at 10 Great West. Fin. 17 3/8 Hold Hewlett Packard 19 7/8 B Buy at 20-18 Intern'l Packers 13 3/4 B- Hold Mesabi Trust 13 1/2 Hold for Income Close Qual- 11/4/63 i!,L Comment Microwave 11 3/4 B Buy at 11-10 Murphy Corp. 19 1/4 Hold for 25 National Can 14 5/8 B- Buy Pacific Pete 11 B- Buy at 11-10 Penn R. R. 19 7/8 B- Buy at 19-18 Reeves Bros. 15 7/8 B Buy at 15-14 W.Air. 51/8 C Buy at 5 Sperry Rand 17 1/8 B Buy at 16-15 Univ. Match 15 B Buy at 14 Varian Assoc. 19 5/8 B Buy at 18 The following stocks have been removed from our Recommended List since its publication on September 10, 1963' Air Products, Burroughs, Electric Storage Battery, General Mills, General Motors, Great Northern Paper, International Business Mach., Kern County Land, McKesson & Robbins, Northwest Airlines and Stewart Warner. November 6, 1963 ThiS Uullctm IS not and under no Cllcumstanc('S IS to be construed a,. an (lffet to 01 a to lmy any securities rererred to herem The informatIOn con- tained herem IS not'uuaranteed as to accuracy or l'lnd the rurnn,hlnl! thereor not, and under no circumstances to be conetrued as, a representatlOn by Walston & Co ne All cxprc,,,,ions of opinion al e !ubJect to Without n(lUre Wnlston & CD, Inc, and Officers, DlrC'etors, St(lekholders and Employees thereof purchnse sell and nlay have nn mterest m the securities mentloTIe(1 herem lIullctm mtended Bnd preqented merely as a general, informal commen- tary and not as n 'complete analYSIS Additional InforrnntlOn With respect to flny secul itlb referred to herem will be furntshed opon reque!t '''-916

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 08, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 08, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - November 08, 1963
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Wdlston &Co. —-Inc —– J/rlllllr,., Xrl( rnll. Sf()ck E.rchul1.Qe NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OF-FICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 8, 1963 '. days'of tlfefovr-day trading week and then par- tially recovered the earlier losses in the two final days. The intra-day low on the Dow-Jones Industrials for the week was reached on Wednesday at 738.41. Breadth action continued its deterlorating pattern. The short term breadth index has been in a downtrend since early September. Figures are not available for this week's long term breadth index, but the index probably declined below its September low even though the Industrial average held above the September low of 728. 63. This would indicate that the long term breadth index is also in a downtrend. The upside .objective of 7 60 is– probable that the general market has to move to a lower level and form a new base before the uptrend is resumed. We believe the decline will be corrective in nature rather than a broad liquidating movement like 1962. It will probably take the form of a normal technical correction of the sixteen-month advance from the May, 1962 lows. Such technical corrections usually retrace a third to a half of the preceding advance. Quite a few stocks have for.med poten- tial tops and the downside indications coincide with the normal one-third to one-half retrace- ment pattern. This is probably a more useful yardsbck in arriving at a downside projection and buying levels than in attempting a price projection On the averages. The net result of such a decline would be a broadening of the base pattern and eventually higher upside object- ives over the longer term Our latest Recommended List is available from your Account Executive. We have eliminated a number of issues and noted buying points on other issues noe on the recommended list, but which would b a aOe listing below some a ne-third to one-half retracement of the advance from the 1962 low column. The other columns are self-explanatory. It i are available at yields above 4 and also are se . g n b yin nge is in the last erest' 0 note how many issues t ' 10-year average Price- Earnings ratio. Amerada Petroleum 3 Amer. Home Prod. Ashland Oil 0 Borg Warner 8 Container Corp. Eaton Mfg. 36 General Cable 61 General Electric 81 Hooker Chemical 37 Libbey-Owens – Ford 54 Norfolk & Western 114 Pure Oil 42 Southern Railway 60 3. 97 1. 69 3.02 3.91 3. 10 1. 83 3. 54 9.16 3. 16 4. 98 1/3 to 1/2 Dividend Yield Correction 2. 00 2.7 68 -61 26 20.0 1. 57 2. 4 58 -55 13 10.4 1. 20 4.0 27 -25 12 11. 0 2.00 4. 1 46 -43 19 13 1 1. 00 3.0 29 -26 12 11 3 1. 80 5.0 36 -34 14 11.0 2.00 3. 4 51 -46 26 23. 3 2.00 2.4 75 -70 20 21. 7 1. 10 3. 0 35 -33 16 13.9 2.60 4.8 52 -50 12 10.0 5.50 4.8 112 -105 14 10.2 1. 60 3.8 42 -39 12 9.0 2.80 4. 6 60 -56 GRA)E Amer. Metal Prod. 19 American Radiator 17 Consol. Mining 27 Copperweld Steel 41 Hammermill Paper 36 Illinois Central Massey- Ferguson 51 16 Rayonier 30 JUegel Paper 34 Scoville Mfg.. .' 'lle 1.34 . Warner Swasey 69 Dow-Jones Ind. 750.81 Dow-Jones Rails 171. 80 1. 86 1. 44 1. 39 2. 66 2. 30 6.47 1. 63 2.01 2.27 2.333 5.89 11 11.0 12 11.6 19 18.1 15 12. 1 1. 00 .80 1. 20 2.00 5 2 19 -18 4. 7 16 -15 4.4 24 -23 4. 8 37 -35 16 12. 3 8 8.2 10 9. 1 1. 20 2.00 .50 3.3 33 -32 3 9 49 -45 3. 1 14 -13 15 11. 9 15 13. 2 14 12. 1 11 8. 3 1. 00 1. 20 1. 20 1. 85 3. 3 28 -25 3 5 32 -30 3 5 28-26 2. 6 63 -54 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl!l market Jettel is not. ami unde! no ClfCl11ll5tnnces 1' to he cnn ..llllefl ns. nn offci In ,,111 01 n sohcltutlUrl to hllY lin) ,'CUI I ('fen Cillo hel ('In The mC,,! mntlnn ('ollinmed heicin \.. nut j..(lIulnntC('IIIU! to IlC'lll ncy or cnmlllctcnc,s lind the fin thel ('If nut, nnrl \\I11\el 1111 I'HClllllstllntes to be ned I, n. tl.on by \Ialton & Co, In.. All uf U)HnUln nil' … to ehm!.c \\Itlwut nll\1.e, & C, Inc, nn,1 OffleCl…. , DucttOlIo nnd thereof. )lulchIlSI', sell nntl mny hnvc nn Interest In the 'CCUrltlc mcnll.IlCI\ hclClll fhl mad,et IcHel Ill IOtenlleo.l nnll precntetl mel ely us n gcneral mrurmoll'ommentalY nn tiny to day murkd all.1 not lUI n complete A.I.htumnllnCulfllotlJn ….. ,th 1(''')'I'(t to ,m)' I'I'UI1tl(,,, IcCellcti tu hClelll willtle flU nJ'Ihc1l IIpon requcst \\.\ ,01 – –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - November 15, 1963
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Walston &Co. – Inc —..;… MemleI'H Xell' rol'l, Stock E.1Cila!1ge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OffiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 15, 1963 fllt At Friday's intra-day low of 737.90, the Dow-Jones Industrials dropped below the November 6th low of 738.41. The potential top formed at the 760-745 level indicates a possible decline to the 720-710 area. In recent weeks, a handful of stocks were furnishing most of the trading activity and price movement, while the bulk of the market moved back and forth in a desultory fashion. The result was a continued deterioration in market breadth. The longer term breadth in- dices are joining the downward trend of the shorter term graphs. On our graphs of the twenty-five moving totals of and declines, the declines now outnumber the advances. On the even longer term 200 -day moving average of advances and declines, the declines are very near to outnumbering advances. This obviously means that it is be- coming increasingly difficult to find issues in an uptrend. This is the usual pattern when an advance reaches a mature stage and is in need of correction. The 242-point advance from the June, 1962 intra-day low of 524. 55 to the October high of 767.24 is sixteen months old. The percentage advance has been 450/0. At the re- cent high, the Industrial average had reached the 760-770 potential outlined in our tech- nical work. It would appear that the market now needs a technical correction in order to build a new base for a subsequent advance. As mentioned in last week's letter, a number of issues have formed potential tops with downside indications equal to about a third to a half retracement of the advance from the June, 1962 lows highs. In terms of the Dow-Jones Industrials, this would indicate a possible cli t 685-645 level. At the moment; there is no indication of a decline a e ut pattern could broaden. A decline of a third to a half of the advs;Wrom-LL 'June, 1962 lows would be nor- mal technical correction. ILwould s in individual stocks and place the market in a position to resume thS a date. It has been our long term reasoning that most time during 1956 to 1961, and a major bottom in 6 6 nd are now in a reaccumulation period prior to higher levels la h s. e possible corrective move over the near future will result in a bro t eaccumulation area. Any decline from recent high will probably take place in several stages, rather than in any broad dow ard movement. The present decline could terminate around the 725-710 range. Our shorter term indicators have not yet reached oversold territory, but probably would if the above levels are reached. This would probably be followed by a year-end rally that might carry the averages back to the upper part of the range. Of course, individual issues will follow a different pattern than that of the averages. Some stocks may reach their lows in the very near future, while others may not reach their lows until much later. The probable enactment of a tax reduction bill some time in 1964 will probably con- tinue to exert a ma rket influence. If such a bill is enacted in its present form, a tax loss will be more valuable in 1963 than in 1964 because of the present higher tax rate. On the other be advisable to hold off profit-taking until 1964. This could result in further pressure on the depressed issues selling near their 1962 lows. This would include sllch groups as Aerospace, Cosmetics, Machinery, Motion Pictures, Tobacco, Vending Machines, and some of the more speculative Electronics issues. Re- lease of this selling pressure in December could result in a technical trading rally. On the other side of the coin, profit-taking in the issues that have had sharp price advances may be a factor early in 1964. Dow-Jones Ind. 740.00 Dow-Jones Rails 172. 34 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl-l mil' ket Icttel i'l not lind undcl no circumstances ,,, to be con.,tl ued liS, nn oITe! to ..ell OJ II hcltntLUIl ttl bllY nn)' CCUI 1efell etl tn hel em The In(o, mnlum I)ntlllnc,l hereIn is not l!unrnntccd llS to IlCCl11ncy 01 complctenc-. nno th(' fm nhln\! IhN('r . Iwl, nn.1 11111\('1 11 ell CIIIY\.,tnIHe., 1 to he (111.,t. lied II. ,\ Il'P1C.,ClIlll- tum hy WHIston l.. Co. Inc All eX)lreSlUn tlf 11JnlOn Ille uhJelt ttl rhullJ!e \\Jthnllt lw\JLe Waltun & C, JnL, !lml OfrlN!I …. ()ueLll Stud,holdel an.1 Emll\uyees thereof, II\l\chn'le, sell and may hlne nn IIltC1C'ot III the …eelllltie. mentu ned helem Thl mn,ket \eHel l'i lIltendet! .IIHI l'rc…cntcd melcl) n'! n g-cnl'I.1i lIlfurmui ('f'mmcntnlY on dn)' to ,lay markc-t allli nut II n comllicte nnUhf,l Adllllwllni IIlrlmntJOn \\Ith 1&1l'I't tl nny Cl'IIlJtJe ldcI1Coi tu heJeln wdl he fllt u,pun requcst \\.' ;U1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 22, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 22, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - November 22, 1963
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— – – – – – – – – – — Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– .liem/), ,Yew Ynrk Stock E.,.chall!l NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER November 22, 1963 ALE The following wire was sent to the Walston offices on Friday afternoon. The tragic happening of today has, of course, distorted the normal trend of the market. There are a number of uncertainties such as the effect on foreign markets and the possibility of forced liquidation that make it difficult to project the extent of any further decline until Monday. However, it must be remembered that the market, from a technical viewpoint,had indicated a loss of momentum and an intermediate downtrend before this unfortunate event occurred. The immediate effect will be an acceleration of the downtrend from a timing viewplint, rather than a lowering of the ultimate downside ob- jective. r0 , Last week's letter a 0 0 -710 for the near term. This was reached at of 710.83. It is doubtful whether this point wN 'lllate downside objective for the averages was a from the 1962 low. This would own to 685-645. We see no reason to change this irely possible that the averages themselves will not go that low. We would be inclined to consider the 700-650 level as a buying area and in blue chip individual stocks we would consider a onethird to one-half retracement as a buying level. There is not much more that can be said at the moment. The main thought we are trying to convey is that a further decline to the levels mentioned above would, in our opinion, present a long term buying opportunity. Dow-Jones Ind. 711. 49 Dow-Jones Rails 166.41 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 1'h,., mnrkct ICtt('l not. and UII(lel no cIrcumstances '0 he cnn..,t,lIcn 1111 Ilffel In -.('11 01 fl ..l,cltntlln to 1'11) ,111), ('CllIllle., I e(cll cd til h(,I('111 The lnf01 n1nl111I (ontnltle,1 hereIn is nt l!u,llnntced n; to IKCl1lfll III ..s and the fUllU..,hwl! ' lIt. lind uII,lel 110 lIl,um..tlullC.. h to be (ou.. t,ucd .1 1('1le..(nl,- lion hv '\'IIston & Co, InC' All (''''IHeSSlonb uf UPIllH11l ale ubJcct to Ch,LIlj!C \\Illwllt mIllIe ,'nl..t,,n & Ct, Inc I1lul Office,… StmJ..hI,lc'h nlHI Employee thereof, l)l1l('hase, bell nn may nil mtcle;t III th!' ..('('mille' tl1cntwlH'll helcHI flll'. mll,l..el leltel ,,, lIltcndcd ulld ple'cntcd mel ely ., .. ,\ )!cnl,,1 ltlf,,'IlIUI f'ummentll (011 dl1)1 to Iiny 1ll,lIke! lIew nnd lIDt m! a complete Ac!.htlll.d Ilifolmntltln \\llh I ,III), .. I f(.1 led 10 h('I(1I1 \\111 h flll Il,J)on request \\ ,1)1

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