Viewing Year: 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - September 29, 1961
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fiLE COpy W- – -a-llsnt ocn. -&– -C-o-. Members New Yo,'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO lOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 29, 1961 I For the past four weeks this letter has been drawing attention to the somewhat , discouraging action of our breadth-of-the-market indices and of upside volume indices. It I was pointed out that the Dow-Jones Industrial average by early September had already reached the lower part of the upside potential range of..725-835 suggested by the 1960 base I In view of the fact that breadth-of-the-market and upside volume had been in a more or I less steady decline since April, it was regarded as extremely dubious that the upper part Iof this range would be reached before some sort of correction or consolidation. It was further pointed out that a downside penetration of the August intra-day low of 709.54 on th Dow would indicate at least moderately lower levels. – – – – — Such a penetration occurred on September 18th and reached a climax on Monday of last week, as the Dow retreated almost ten points to reach an intra-day low of 688.87 on volume of 3,700,000 shares. The decline was widespread with 863 declines against only 228 advances. Action for the remainder of the week was indecisive. A great part of the loss was actually recovered with advances Tuesday and Wednesday on reduced volume. On , Thursday and Friday the DJI drifted, although on both days the rails, strongly outperform- ed the industrials. The end of the week found most averages about the same as on the previous Friday. It is quite true that the Monday decline, followed by two days of rather sharp re- I covery, had a climactic appearance. It seems, however, a bit early to revise the cautiom attitude suggested by this letter over the past month. It was pOinted out last week that the ! small top formed at 730-7213 had a downside potential of This has been reached. , However, the broad top formed at the May and Septembert;. rQUnd 710 indicates a possible 645. A one-third to one-half correction of'ithe n . c st October would bring the Industrials back to somewhere between 6 T ,while it is quite possible to become enthusiastic about new — easy to get terribly at present level 6 d 650, it becomes less d)ul. urthermore; – Monday's bottom turn out to be the undue haste in new ives at last week's s, m\QJi)) appears to be no great reason for reached Ion g,..term downside objectbacking andJil.ling will be required be- fore stocks of Moreover, a gooa many of the speculative favorites of early-. ,' furthermore, been i'l( \ in\.pro 0 have more room on the downside. There has, ent as yet in the breadth index even on a very short- term basis and at this week's , unlike the Dow, the short-term breadth index had come nowhere near recov g to its levels of last week. It would appear Ito be the prudent course to await a turn in some of these indices before becoming unduly optimistic. Of course, in any market decline, many stocks prove-qUit e resistant to the general market weakness. This has proved to be the case in a number of equities on our recommended list. International Minerals & Chemical (52) consistently mentioned in this letter, reached a new high of 52 1/8 on Friday despite the recent market we,akness. Another stock which has resisted the decline is Anderson Clayton (41 5/8)' the huge cotton- merchandising organization now selling at the mid-point of its 1961 range. Earnings for the year ended last July were sharply penalized by an income tax charge in connection with the liquidation of a foreign subsidiary, but, underthe stimulus,of,improvement in cotton marketing activity, should show a sharp improvement in 1961-62. The 2.00 dividend provides a yield of close to 50/0. Other stocks on our recommended list have declined along with the market, but have reached what appears to be attractive buying levels just above important support zones. Kerr McGee Oil reached a low of 38 1/4 at mid-week, largely due, it is understood, to stop-loss orders placed under 40. The stock recovered nicely to close the week at 40 1/8. September quarter earnings for this oil and uranium producer are expected to be somewhat lower than in the comparable quarter of last year due to lower refined products prices and a wildcat strike at one of its uranium mills. The company will still be able to meet its uranium contract obligations and earnings should be con- siderably better in the final three quarters. Any near-term weakness should provide an excellent purchase opportunity. A 'T'A BELL e'ircumswnces 15 to be construed as, an offer to scJJ to herein The mformatlon D A'rtlrnJ.ifI1ibnlyrJ..h.Etre.ifto Ii or completeness and the furnishmg thlfcof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be AB, n represcntll- of opinIOn arc subJect to change without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockhohlers lind Employee'! thereof sell and may ha,\c an Interest m the secufllae!! mentIOned herem This market letter IS intended and presented merely as a general, , mformal on da; to day market news and not as a complete analysis Additional mformatlon with respect to any secUrities referred to herem will be

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 06, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 06, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - October 06, 1961
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FILE COpy NEW YORK Walston &- Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER October 6, 1961 The stock market, in the latter part of the week, turned in a fairly impressive p r formance. On increased volume,the Dow-Jones Industrials reached an intra-day high of 714.07 on Friday. Even more significant was the action of our shorter-term breadth inde which, for the first time in a long while, managed to match the action of the averages, be – tering its levels of two weeks ago. If this continues, and longer-term breadth also impro it will be possible to become more optimistic on the immediate outlook. I However, insofar as the industrial sector of the list is concerned, it is not yet possible to let bullish enthusiasm become rampant. The Dowhas just aboutrunout the up side count of the tiny !ase formed in the 692-697 area, and is just under the heavy overhe d supply existing at 715. The most bullish possible pattern would be continued backing and filling at present levels before an attempt-at penetration of this supply is made. Until this happens, it is best to reserve judgment as to the intermediate trend. As has been noted in many places, however, the action of the rails over the past few weeks has been a good bit more encouraging .than.that of,the industrials. As most in- vestors are aware, the Dow-Jones Rails this week bettered their August peak, reaChing a intra-day high of 152.24 on Thursday. While various counts are possible on both the Dow Jones Rail average and the Standard & Poor Rail Index, ability to follow through on this high would indicate a move of at least fairly substantial proportions.– possibly to the 160 180 range on the Dow and to the 45-49 range on the S & P Index. Many investors tend to shy away from rail securities, becoming somewhat confu e by the mystique of ICC accounting and the highly technical jargon about carloadings, main e nance ratios, etc. which usually accompanies most rail attractive at this juncture in comparison with their indust 'a c simple reasons. (('0 1. They are measurably cheaper than h Actually, the rails appe sJ.or a number of ver sis of both earnings and divid,enQ'!. Yiel!s th,e four .S. '. recommen5!ed list — At-, chison, Topeka & Santa Fe, Northern Paci!, boar line and Southern Railway — range from 4.7 to 5.2 on n e appears virtually assured. This compares with a present Wbw-Jones Industrial average. The price earnings ratios for the our s c ten and fifteen times depressed 1960 earn ings, and between si a c yDow Industrials 1 t' 1955-59 earnings. The current PIE ratio for the 2. Contra t the' ression held by many investors, earnings of the better- grade rails have shown e measure of growth. It is quite true that a railroad, by the very nature of its 0 ation, will have its revenues adversely affected by the business 'cyc e However, almost all of the better southern and western roads, including the 'four on our list, have tended to show substantial earnings improvement from cyclical peak to cyclical peak. There is no reason to suspect that this action will not continue. 3. 1962 earnings for the higher quality equities should show marked improveme over both 1960 and 1961 results. Excellent earnings comparisons are already beginning to show up as carloadings and revenues, and, above all, operating earnings, reported each month, show impressive gains over year-ago figures. 4. The above factors apply largely to better-grade rail securities. However, the more speculative equities have an attraction of their own, based largely on the fantastic leverage contained in both their-Capital structure and their operating ratios.For example, Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul & Pacific had operating revenues in 1960 of 108 per share'. 'comparable figure for Chicago ,Northwestern was 187. The earnings improvement whic even a small change in profit margins can generate in roads of this type is,of course, tremendous. 5. A final point in favor of the rails must be noted in the huge savings which will occur through mergers now in the preliminary stages. In this connection, it must be emphaSized that the regulatory authorities tend to move at a ponderous 'pace and many merg now being discussed will not be consummated for a number of years. Nonetheless, the mo e toward merger has gained impetus and will continue to do so. For all of the above reasons, in today's uncertain market, the conservatively pri high-quality rail equities deserve representation in every investment portfOlio. vow-Jones Ind. 708.25 ANTHONY W. TABELL D-ftWmJgnfiiPr 1Aumstnnces IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or n solic\ Ion !iuy any secUrl 1(3 -herein The informatiOn contnmed herem IS not guaranteed ns to accuracy or completeness and the furntshtng thereof IS not, and under no clTcumstnnceS IS to be construed us, a repre,entn- han by Walston & Co. Inc. All eltpresslOns of opimon arc subJcct to change Without notice Walston & Co. Inc. and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell Ilnd may have an Interest In the seeurltJCS mentIOned herem. ThiS market letter JS zntended and presented merely as a gCl!crllJ. ltltormnl commentary on day to nay market news and not as II, complete analYSIS AddltlOnaIlnforrnntlOn With respect to any S('cufltH!9 referred to hereIn Will be ' ' \\N JOt

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 13, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 13, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - October 13, 1961
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FILE COpy NEW YORK Walston &- Co. —–Inc. —….; Members N e10 York Stock Exchange SAN FRANC'SCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER October 13, 1961 Last'week's market was essentially trendless. This was to be expected since the advance in the previous week had carried through just about to the overhead supply existin from the previous top. The improvement in shorter term breadth mentioned in last week' letter continues, but it would still be premature to become optimistic before this improve ment is also reflected in other technical indicators. This has not yet taken place. At this time, with many stocks selling near their lows, many investors are exhi i – ing an inclination to seek bargains among issues which are suppossedly depressed. It therefore appears appropriate to repeat a comment on this philosophy which originally ap peared in this letter in April'; 1957. -', -'- –, -' -. —- , – One of the most common questions which iR asked of the market analyst runs as follows 'XYZ is down from 85 to 37 in the past year. Do you think the stock is 'ready to buy yet' Such a question is a fairly natural one. After any stock has declined sharply in price, the normal tendency on the part of the public is to feel that it must be a bargain. Unfortunately, such is seldom the case. As Harold X.Schreder has often pointed out, much confused thinking concerning securities results from the fact that they are considered in terms only of level. Few peop e realize that a stock is a moving object and, as such, has two other qualities in addition to level — namely direction and momentum. The airplane, also a mOving object, is often us for purposes of comparison. Two airplanes, one in a steep climb and one in a power dive may, at a given instant, be at the same level. It appears obvious that one would feel much safer in the former than the latter. The airplane comparison may be carried a step further. An airplane that has just landed must spend a good deal of time taxiing along and then taxiing back for a takeoff. A stock also, after a sha,fe de i e, 0.1 ost invariab1 spe d a long time in a sidewise trading area, backing – re .' major advance takes vulnerable to serious losses.. cO . This fact was h the 1957 letter and can also be de- monstrated today. As wade of the market in the week ended October 28, 1960, the w t s strials made a low of 564.23. Over 300 issues made new lows tha dom sample of 100 of these was taken. Of these 100, the 25 that acted wor t ov e previous year were selected. If the depressed stock theory were valid, it d be expected that these stocks would have 'done well from October 1960 to date. Such, however, was not the case. Despite the fact that the Dow- Jones Industrials have advanced some 260/0 in the past year, 15 of the 25 stocks failed to eqUal this advance, and the average for all 25 was well under the performance of the Dow. Two of the stocks even managed to decline further in the face of a major bull marke Therefore, picking stocks that had declined sharply was not a particularly valid meth of achieving investment success in 1961. Our original study pointed out that it is almost equally senseless to worry about stocks that have had a sharp rise if technical and funda- mental work proves that the stocks are suitable for purchase. Indeed, strange as it may seem,a stock is often a better buy while it is making new highs, or after it has moved up sharply after a long period of sidewise movement. Thus, on Thursday of this week some 42 common stocks achieved new highs. The performance of these stocks was studied over the past year and the 25 with the best advance from October 1960 to date were selected. Had these stockS been down sharply during the bear market of January/October 1960 Not at all. Eight of the 25 had posted advances in a market that had declined 160/0 from its January high, and 16 of the stocks ha declined less than the Dow .'!he conclusion drawn in the 1957 letter can be repeatedIt is almost alway more profitable to buy a stock which is at or close to making new highs than it is to buy one at the bottom of a decline before it has formed a base. This is due to those elusive qualities, direction and momentum, which are all too seldom considered in making capital appreciation decisions. ANTHONY VI. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 703.31 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 151. 'itt This market letter is not, and under no Circumstances IS to be conltrued as, an offer to sell or a sohCltatlOn to buy any securities referred to herein The mformahon contluned herem 15 not 1fU8ranteed as to accuracy or completeness Bnd the furnlshmg thereof is not, and under no Clrcumstunces is to be construed as, a bon by \Vnlston & Co. Inc All ClprCSSlOns of opinLOn arc subJect to change WIthout notu!e Walston & Co. Inc. and OffIcers, DlTectors, Stockholders and Employees therrof. purchase, Bell and may have an interest m the seeurltles mentIOned herein ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as n general. informal commentary on da)' to day market news am not as a complete analYSIS AddItional information with respect to uny seculIties referred to hereIn Will be . . . ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 20, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 20, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - October 20, 1961
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———- — Walston &- Co. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 20, 1961 Upon my return from a three-week business trip to London and Scotland, I find very little change in the technical pattern of the market. The Dow-Jones Industrial aver age is practically at the same level as when I left. After a downside breakout of the 733- 710 area to a low of 688.87, the industrials rebounded to a recovery high of 714.07, but appear to be meeting heavy overhead supply at around 710-715. The Rail average, on contrary, has shown excellent price action and has reached a new 1961 high at 153.60. However, the improving price performance of the rails is not a new development, and since August several of these letters have drawn attention to the rails. The Rail continues to irfdicate iiigher levels w itli- a possihlerally' potential tottle 160-170 range. The Utility average has shown, by far, the most impressive price action and has moved sharply into new high territory. At Friday1s high of 130.90, the Utility average is 6.4 above its September high while the industrials are 4 lower. The utilities have been sho\lH ing excellent relative strength action for a long time. However, many individual utH ity issues have about reached their immediate upside potentials and some consolidation ap- pears in order. There is no important change in our longer term breadth-of-the-market index. It continues to act worse than the market. The breadth index reached its high in May when the Industrial average was at 714.69. Despite the new high in September of 733.53 in the industrials, the breadth index failed to reach a new high by a sizable margin. In the recent decline to 688.87, the breadth in1ex declined below the level reached at the July low when the Industrial average was 674.80. As mentioned before, poor breadth action is a warning of deteriorating market momentum rat t an indication of an immediate decline. These warning signals usually occur x a year before the market averages reach their high. In 1959, h in e t d down nine months before the Industrial average reached its hi V;1n 1 6- 7, the breadth index and average reached the 525 h1gh ofApr 1, 1 a triple top in June, 1957, some fou 0 It is entirely possible that t aVi wa m 0 fact occaSlOns ana fmally reached s r the breadth index turned down. a new high somewhat above the 733.53 market is in a br d itO that may take as long as six months or more to complete. Durin a 10 ndividual issues will undoubtedly show sizable price advance, but streng s 0 e used to lighten commitments when upside potentials are reached in each i aual issue. The main t chnica1 difficulty in the market since May has been a loss of buying interest rather than heavy selling pressure. Upside volume has declined very sharply since May while downside volume has shown very little change. Just what could happen to restore the buying urge in most issues is difficult to ascertain at the moment. The main prop is an improving business pattern that promises to continue into 1962. However, with the averages selling at twenty-four times immediate earnings, the market has already discounted quite a sizable earnings increase for 1962. A loss of investor confidence could bring about a lower evaluation of earnings even though actual earnings increase. As this letter has continually stressed, the intermediate term action of indi- vidual issues is much more important than the action of the averages. With that thought in mind, we have suggested taking profits in a number of issues in our recommended list over the last six months when individual price objectives have been reached. Two utility issues in our list have about reached their upside objectives for the intermediate term and are being removed from the list for the time being. They are Pacific Gas & Electric (96 7/8) recommended at 75 3/8, and Southern California Edison (93 1/3) recommended at 66. Both stocks were added to the list less than a year ago. Y.'e are also dropping American Stores (97) , recommended originally at 74. Dow-Jones Ind. 705.62 Dow-Jones Rails 150. 14 EDlVlUND W. TABELL -oVALSTON & CO. INC. 'I'hls market letter is not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed AS, nn offer to sell or a sohCltation to huy nny securitIes referred to herein The Information contmned herem IS not n'l to Recuraey or completene'lS and the furnlahmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances 15 to be construed as, a representa- tIOn by Walston & Co, Inc. Ali expressions of opmlOn arc subJcct to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest In the securities mentIOned herem Th15 market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, mformal commentn.ry on day to day market neWB and not as a complete nnalyslS AdditIonal Information With respect to any secunbes referred to herem wIll be furnished request.' WK 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 27, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 27, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - October 27, 1961
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Walston &Co. Inc. ;,.–…;….;… Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO lOS ANGELES PHilADelPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 27, 1961 The stock market sold off on Monday and spent the balance of the week in an attempt at a partial recovery of the losses. The week's intra-day low of 693.77 on the Dow-Jones Industrial average held above the September low of 688.87. Both the Utilities and Rails declined moderately, but at the week's lows of 127.81 and 148.10 were consilOE!Jr1 ably above the comparable September lows of 119.80 and 140.80. The Industrial average has held in a relatively narrow trading area between 714.07 and 688.87 for twenty-five trading days. Prior to the formation of this trading shelf, the Industrials had held in a similar-orange between 733..53-and-7-09. 54–forthirty-trading days.-T–his area was ,-ofcourse, broken on the downside. From a timing viewpoint, several of our short-term technical indicators pOint to a probable end of the current market impasse in the Industrial average in the next week or so. Various trend lines are near converging points and should furnish a more definitEj indication of the hitherto obscure shorter-term trend for the balance of the year. We continue to expect at least a test of the 733.53 high early in 1962. Whether the advance will start from around present levels, or from a somewhat lower level, is still problel1ll1 atical. Over the past three months, while the Industrial averages were slowly drifting 'lower and more issues were declining than advancing, there were a sizable number of issues that moved against the trend. This selectivity will continue. The market is probably at a stage where the technical action of the general market is of much less im- portance than that of individual issues. It is probable that the averages will move up down in a comparatively wide trading area, but be in uptrends and downtrends of their own entirely independent from)He i g \ eral marke t. We have tried to solve the problem of of stocks from which issues are dropped or added -ttilrty-nirie'1ssues nave b 'su' a recommended list oc on warrants. Some – profits. This list is for intermedi new complete list will be a 'la at least six months or longer. A your Walston office early next week. tials over the Ion e -t to the recmme t/'y Pri ce American Viscose 54 Anderson Clayton 42 Cluett, Peabody 77 Colgate Palmolive 48 Diamond National 49 Intern'l Minerals Chern. 49 Johns Manville 60 , Kerr McGee 41 North Arner.Aviation 50 Panhandle East. Pipe L 49 PhiliipsPetroletim 56 Sperry Rand 23 Stevens, J. p. 33 United Shoe Machinery 63 U. S. Plywood 49 Woolworth 86 ed below. Earnings 1961 (E) 1.75 4.50 (1) 5.00 2.70 3.00 3.50 (2) 3.00 3.00 (2) 3.50(3) 3.80 3.35 1.00 (4) 2.40 (5) 4.50 (6) 3.75 (7) 5.00 J. P. Stevens & Co. is a new addition P IE Ratio 30.8 9.3 15.4 17.8 16.3 14.0 20.0 13.7 14.3 12.9 16.7' 23.0 13.7 14.0 13.1 17.2 Anticipated' /. Dividend 2.00 Yield 3.7 2.00 4.8 2.75 3.6 1.40 2.9 1. 60 3 1.60 3.3 2.00 3.3 .80 2.0 2.00 4.0 1.80 3.7 1.70 3.0 stk. 1.50 4.5 2.75 4.4 2.00 4.9 2.50 2.9 (1) Year to end July, 1962. (2) Year to end June, 1962. (3) Year ended Sept. 1961. (4) Year to end March, 1962. (5) Year ended October, 1961. (6) Year to end February, 1962. (7) Year to end April, 1962. Dow Jones Ind. 698.74 EDMUND \'1. TABELL

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 30, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 30, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - October 30, 1961 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - October 30, 1961 page 2
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— ' October 30, 1961 RECOMMENDED LIST OF STOCKS SELLING ABOVE 20.00 A SHARE EDMUND W. TABELL Close 10/27/61 American Metal Climax 36 1/2 American Optical 67 American Potash & Chern. 55 1/8 American Smelt. & Ref. 59 American Viscose 53 3/8 Amderson Clayton 42 Arkansas Louis. Gas 42 Atchison, Topeka & S. F. 28 1/8 Audio Devices 24 7/8 Boeing Airplane 50 Canadian Pacific 24 3/8 Carpenter Steel 42 1/2 Caterpillar Tractor 37 Central & South West 44 Chicago & Northwest 22 3/4 Chicago Pneumatic Tool 32 1/4 Cluett Peabody 78 Colgate Palmolive 47 3/8 Collins & Aikman 48 1/8 Columbia Pictures 28 Consolidated Mining & Smelt. 21 Consolidated Natural Gas 65 7/8 Continental Insurance 62 7/8 Daystrom 38 5/8 Diamond National '487/8 Dome Mines 25 1/4. Domhion Tar & Chemical 18 Eastern Gas & Fuel 447/8 Electric Storage Battery 50 EI Paso Natural Gas 26 1/8 Ex-Cell-O 42 3/4 FMC Corporation 847/8 Ford Motor 103 3/8 Freeport Sulphur 28 1/2 General Mills 33 1/4 Goodrich, B. F. 71 5/8 Granite City Steel 43 1/2 Great Northern Paper 59 Great Western Sugar 333/8 Haveg Industries 37 3/4 Hercules Powder 103 3/4 Holly Sugar 343/4 Ideal Cement 30 3/4 Insurance Co. of N;A.- -1097/8 International Minerals Chern. 485/8 International Tel & Tel 51 1/2 Jewel Tea 76 Johns Manville 60 1/2 YfALSTON & CO.INC. Original Recom. Price 24 5/8 54-50 42 7/8 55 1/8 52 3/8 36 3/4 35 3/4 25 7/8 26 3/8 363/4 245/8 47 30 1/2 40 1/4 19 1/2 28 3/8 56 3/4 43 5/8 43 21 7/8 (b) 20 3/8 51 1/8 63 7/8 45-43 35 1/2 -25 '1/8' 18 3/8 29 3/4 54 28 35 3/4 60 3/4 69 1/2 24 7/8 32 3/8 63 1/4 37 1/2 57 29 345/8 (c) 80 1/4 30 1/2 26 7/8 78 32 48 50 1/4 60 S &P Rating B B B B B B AA- B- B A- A A C B B A- BB B A B B -B– – A- B B B A A B A A A B B B B A B B B A A Comment Hold for 48 Hold for 90 Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold– -.- Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 45 Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 55-60. Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 75 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold —Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 50-60 Hold Hold Hold for 50-55 Hold for 90 Hold for 115-125 Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 45 Hold for 54 Hold for 125 Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 125 Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 80 Buy-Hold '( 4..'!!,..4 Close 10/27/61 Kern CO)lnty Land 68 1/4 Kerr McGee 40 1/2 Lone Star Gas 27 1/8 Louisiana Land Explor. 66 1/2 Magma Copper 56 Marquette Cement 63 McIntyre Porcupine 433/4 Mesabi Trust 13 5/8 Microwave Associates 39 1/8 Mississippi River F)lel 36 1/2 National Aviation 28 1/8 Newmont Mining 67 1/2 North Amer.Aviation 50 1/8 Northern Natural Gas 41 Northern.Pacific R.R. 41 3/4 Oklahoma Gas & Elec. 47 7/8 Panhanllie Eastern Pipe L 48 5/8 Penney, J.C. 52 5/8 Phillips Petroleum 56 1/8 Pitney-Bowes 68 1/4 Pittsburgh Plate Glass 65 1/8 Pullman, Inc. 33 1/2 R;lytheon 36 Reeves Bros. 19 1/8 Reynolds Metals 38 Royal Dutch 31 5/8 Seaboard Airline R.R. 30 1/8 Seaboard Finance 23 7/8 Southern Natural Gas 45 Sperry Rand — 0 23 3/8 Sterling Drug 92 5/8 Stevens,J. P. 32 3/8 Swift & Co. 39 1/4 Texas Gulf Sulphur 21 7/8 United Biscuit 37 United Shoe Machinery 63 U. S. Plywood 48 1/4 U. S. Vitamin 35 Varian Associates Woolworth, F. w. 42 1/8 85 1/8 -2- Original Recom. S&P Price Rating 53 A 50 A- 23 5/8 (c) A- 50 1/2 A 54 1/2 B- 53 1/4 A 27 3/4 8 (d) B 33 1/8 14 1/8 A 27 3/4 (e) 62 1/2 A- 41 1/2 30 3/8 A- 42 1/8 B 35 1/4 A- 47 7/8 A- 41 1/2 A 53 7/8 A 41 A 69 3/4 A 39 3/4 B 40 3/4 B 245/8 B- 59 B 38 1/8 (a) A 32 3/8 B 21 7/8 (a) —38 3/8 27 -1 /4 AB- – 693/4 A B 44 1/2 B 19 1/8 B 37 3/4 B 59 B 483/4 B 37 A 40 1/8 (d) 69 A- Comment Hold for 85-90 Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 85 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 18 Hold Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 54 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 75 Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold BuYHold Hold for 105 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold (a) – Adjusted for stock dividends. (b) – If rights to buy Screen Gems at 9 were used, each 100 shares o'wns 20 shares Screen Gems now selling at 21. (c) – Adjusted for split. (d) – Adjusted for sale of rights and split. (e) – Adjusted for capital gains distribution.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 03, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 03, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - November 03, 1961
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t FILE COpy Walston &- Co. Inc – – – – – !Ifembel'S New Y O1'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 3, 1961 STEVENS (J. P.) & COMPANY, INC, Current Price Current Dividend 32 1.50 One of the most interesting facets of the recent market scene has been the re- Current Yield 4.7 appraisal of many growth companies who Long-Term Debt 83,200,000 securities were selling at fantastic multiple Common Stock 4,186,760 shs. of earnings. Concurrent with this reapprai a Sales-1961 (E) Sales-1960 475,000,000 512,700,000 has, been the search for new areas of growt and an'-increasing realization'that long-term earnings improvement may be found in cycli Earned Per Share-1961 (E) 2.40 cal stocks whose gains are often obscured b Earned Per Share-1960 3.65 interim fluctuations. Many companies in cy Mkt.Range 1961-60 33 1/8-223/4 (NoteFiscal year ends Oct. 31st) cHcal industries will, of course, report ear ings decreases in poor years, but results d , often, improve from cycle to cycle. No industry is more cyclical than the textile industry. Although recent studies have ,proven that the two-year cycle is somewhat of a myth, it is obvious that a number of factors in the industry cause wide fluctuations in the earning power of basic producers. Such is the case with J.P.STEVENS, INC., whose reported net per-share earnings have varied widely between 2.08 and 4.51 in the past five years, with no particular growth trend noticeable. It can be argued that Stevens' real growth has been obscured by two factors, first, the cyclical fluctuations mentioned above and, secondly, wide fluctuations in income tax payments due to tax losses of subsidiaries sitions. One of the mos common methods of smoothing out cyclical trends is the 0 -.ffug average, taking, for each year, the average results for the past e g table shows five year moving averages of Stevens' sales and pre-tax nin i e recent past. A glance c at the figures will. show, a growth trend which Five Ye &Five..Years Endea fir., i ls,noLpadicularlyapparent Pre-Tax Earn. Per Sh. 1959 1960 1961 W 4.15 3.75 4.63 5.24 5.41 (Note 4.75 milli n sales and 5.35 pre-tax earnings estimated for 1961.) Stevens, with more than half a billion dollars 1960 volume, is one of the largest manufacturers of textiles with output divided between synthetics, cotton and woolens. Since all three of these fabrics tend to have separate cycles, this diversification renders the company more immune to wide fluctuations. Post-tax earnings'are estimated at 2.40 after a full tax burden for the year to end October 31, 1961, down from 3.65 in the prior year, and 4.52, after some tax relief, in 1959. Evidence accumulates that the textile cycle bottomed out in the early part of 1961 and quarter-to-quarter earnings comparisons have been favorable. Net for the final quarter of the year should approach 1.00 per shar vs. 73 in the like 1960 quarter, and cyclical improvement should extend gains throughout 1962 when earnings should approach or better the 4.00 figure. An aggressive management has shown ability to keep costs in line as much as is possible in this highly volatile industry and research and development is intensive. In this connection, two joint ventures are worthy of mention. National Plastic Products Company, owned jointly with Humble Oil & Refining, manufactures a line of plastic filaments, including polypropylene, which will bc aggreSSively promoted for textile use. Kimberly-Stevens, owned jointly with Kimber1y-Clark,is developing and exploiting products in the field of non-woven disposable materials. Both these ventures should make substantial future acquisitions to Stevens' net. The stOCk, added to our recommended list last week, yields 4.7 on the 1.50 dividend, and has a long-term upside objective of 52 with strong support around current levels. It is again suggested for capital appreciation accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. – 709.34 ANTHONY '.V. TABELL ThiS r IS nder no cl!cumstances 16 to be construed as, an referred to herem The informatIon eontalned herem is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness Dnd the furmshlllg thereof)'; not, llnd under no c;lrcumstances IS to be construed as, 11 bon by WoJaton & Co Inc AU ('xpreaBlOns of opmion are subJect to chnnR'e Without notice li\'nlston & Co, Inc, and Offlccrs. DIrectors, Stockholders and Employees thereof. and may have an mterest m the SCCUritles mentioned herem market Jetter lB mtended Ilnd presented merely us n gcneral. Informal commentary on dn to rlo.y market news and nnt as a com1lete anahslB Adur\.lnnnl mformatlOn WIth lCSl'ect to nn)' seC\lrJtJes referred to hercm wdl be furni9hed upon r e q u e s t \\TN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 10, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 10, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - November 10, 1961
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Walston &Co. Inc —– f \ Members New YOk Stock Exchange NEW YORK, SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 10, 1961 With volume increasing to better than 6 million shares on Wednesday, the market moved ahead sharply in the early part of this week and the Dow-Jones Industrials reached a high of 727.46 on Friday, within six points of the all-time high of 733.53. It was sugges – ed in this letter two weeks ago. that the market was about to establish a trend in one di- rection or another and this trend now appears established as upward, at least for the shorter term. Certainly a test of the 733 high can be expected, and if this is successful, a further move into the broad 725-835 area, envisioned as the long-term objective on the Dow, appears possible. The extent of this move will be difficult to determine until the action of long-term breadth and volume indicators ,over ,the next,few weeks is o.bserved. With advances having exceeded declines on every day for the past two we'eks;' short-term breadth has already improved encouragingly. The possibility of last week's action being the start of a year-end rally has been widely discussed in the financial press. The year-end rally is, actually, far .nore than a financial catch-phrase.It Is a statistically demonstrable fact that a rally of some magnitude has occurred at some time close to the year-end in every year since the Dow- Jones daily averages were first recorded in 1897. This rally has a pronounced tendency to start around the end of November or the beginning of December. It has, on occasion, started as early as the second week in October and, in many cases, especially when the rally was small, as late as the end of December. However, since 1942, the tendency of the rally to begin early has been accentuated and it has begun in the first week of'Decem- ber,or before, in 17 of the 19 years since that date. (This and the following data are base on the Dow-Jones Industrial average. ) How far does the rally generally carry If we find that in many cases the rise is minuscule, being less a back to 1897, we low to year-end close. However, it was greater than 50/0 in 35 6 ,a gr er than 100/0 in 11 years. Since 1942, it has hovered persistently ii 0 o. The average per- centage advance for all 63 since 1897t wa., in -6;-550/0-;–For the-1-9'years'smce 1942 the a mcr !'ias been-,6. ,95. The above figures are, of . from the viewpoint of the market student, but they represent it would be impossible buy 0 a mE8uretherallyfromlowtohigh.Since the question arises as to whether the year-end concept ha a ing tool. Here the answer is less certain, but it would appear possible timing of stock purchases do exist. For example, a study 0 e ix- period from the beginning of November to mid-Decem- ber in each year sho s ollowing data. In 38 out of the 63 years the Dow-Jones In- dustrial average wa gher at its December close than at its mean price for the first week in November. Comparable figures for the other weeks are 38 for the second week in November, 44 for the third week in November, 43 for the fourth week in Novem- ber, 41 for the first week in December, and 38 for the second week in December. Put- ting it another way, the purchase of stocks at the mean price for the last two weeks in November, followed by sale on the last day of the year, would have netted a profit approximately two-thirds of the time. This tendency has been even more persistent since 1942. Since that date, the Dow at year-end had bettered its mean price for the final two weeks in November in 17 out of 19 years. Unfortunately, however, profits which could have been made according to this formula have not been large. The largest,recorded prcIit is 9 and the largest , loss recorded in years when the formula did not work out is 110/0. Figuring both profits and losses over the 63 years, the average profit would have been only 1 1/20/0. Since 1942, the record is considerably better with an annual profit of 4 1/2 having been achieved. This result, attained by strictly mechanical methods, indicates that the year-end rally concept does have some value as a trading tool and that, on a statis- tical basis, purchases in the last two weeks in November have a tendency to work out well. The extent of the year-end rally into January also has a great deal of value in predicting the course of the market in the following year. Regular readers of this letter will no doubt recall discussions of this concept which have appeared in Decem- ber or January issues in the past three or four years. It will be discussed again in a future letter. W. TAlil;lii;l,l, d'n2A1lc83eumstnnces is to construed as, an offer referred to herem The lllformnhon Ql'\1racy or completeness nnd t.he fUrOlshmg'thcretr'ts not, a'tilJ ul'hlcr no i' to be eonstr\led !lS, n rcpresentn- …..t'iOilbyUWal't.'lirt&.a.e,r,-lhl! Art of OP1Dlon arc suhJect to change without notice Walston & Co. Inc. and Officers, Direetors, Stockholders and Employees thereof purcha;(', sell and may have nn interest In the 'leeUrltlcs mentIOned herein ThiS market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general, mformal on day to dill' market neWB and not. as a complete anaiysiq Addltionui iniormntlOn With ICSpcct to any securities rcferrld to herem will be \\1'.301 – ,-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 17, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 17, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - November 17, 1961
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Walston &- Co. Inc – – – – – Member8 New Yo'k Stock Exqhange ,,- NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO l6s !.NGEt!S' PHilADElPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 17,1961 The market continued its upward trend during the earlier part of the week, and the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached an all-time high of 741. 80 on Wednesday. A decline in the two final sessions of the week erased a good portion of the advance, but th Industrial average closed 4.70 points higher on the week at 729.53. Late in October, this letter stated that from a timing viewpoint, several of the short-term indicators pointed to a probable end of the market impasse. Since that time, the Industrial average has moved up over forty points, or over 6. The pace of the advance has been quite rapid and probably some consolidation is needed as far as the gener market pattern is concerned. The 725-715 area should furnish a good support zone., Indi vidual issues will undoubtedly pursue their own separate trends regardless of the action of the averages. As far as our breadth-of-the-market indices are concerned, the short-term indi cators turned bullish two or three weeks ago and as yet there is no change in the pattern. On the longer-term breadth indicators, the picture is still negative. Our index has been moving up, but it is still well below the high reached in May, despite the fact that the Industrial average has reached 741. 30 compared to a high of 714. 69 in May. This, of cour e means that while the majority of better-grade issues that comprise the various averages are moving ahead, the bulk of the market is failing to keep pace. As noted in previous letter, this type of action can continue for quite some time. Poor breadth action usually gives a warning signal six months to a year before a general market decline. There has been no change in our long-term a long time. Quoted below is an excerpt from our letter of 96 e Industrial avera was 688. 66. The opinion outlined at that time . f today. The technical pattern of the market seve probabilities that this letter has been stressing for quite some ze — – (1) The-market is in ave-year b;ll market that started in 1949 and has in the Industrial average and much wider advances in (2) The Ind e ' r'fot reach its ultimate high for the bull market at the May high 7 . 6 e cal indications are that a high will be reached some where between 7 ce ow) and 835 (which seems high). An advance from present levels to th hig bjective would be an advance of about 200/0. Individual issues obviously cou 0 much better. (3) Afte the high is reached, a long consolidating period of several years' duration may take place with the Industrial average in a trading area between 800 and 550. The Industrial average probably will not decline below 500 in the lifei.Lme of any present investor. The October 1960 low was 564.23. The 1956 high was 525, Of course, any general prediction, even if correct, is meaningless unless the right securities are bought and sold. Many issues have probably made their high for the advance. Many others still have a long way to go. This letter continues to believe that as far as the general market is concerned, the broad 725-835 area is a selling range. The Industrial average could remain within the confines of this area for quite some time. Would use market strength to liquidate lower quality issues and to gradually upgrade accounts by the purchase of better quality issues selling at reasonable price levels. We have pursued the policy of removing individual issues from our recommended list as each individual issue reaches its upside objective indicated by its technical pattern. Two issues on our recommended list are being removed. FMC OORPO RA TION (93 1/2) recommended at 60 3/4, has reached the 90 obj ective outlined in the list of October 30th, and JEWEL TEA (763/4) recommended at 50 1/4, reached the objective of 80 at the recent high of 83. Dow-Jones Ind. – 729.53 Dow-Jones Rails – 151. 02 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiR market letter is not. and under no Clrcumstnnces 19 to be construed us, un offer to sell or a sohcitatiOn to buy nny securities T.cferred to herem The information contnlned herCm IS not guaranteed as to accursey or completeness and the furmshlDg thereof IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, n representa- tion by Wnlston & Co, Inc All expressIOns of oPinIOn arc subjcct to change Without nO!lce ,,'alston & Co, I,ne,' and Directors, Stockholde-NI nnd mployC(''1 the-reof, .sell and may bave an mterest III the seeurltlel TIe a .herem ThIS mnrkct.lottor IS mt.enOed I\n(!, merely 1.'0 \l. to herem

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 24, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 24, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - November 24, 1961
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FILE COpy Walston &CO. —-Inc —- Membej's N e1V York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 24, 1961 Nlixed markets predominated in the past week's sessions with declining stocks outnumbering advances. ;.fter the sharp rise of the past three weeks, the current ir- regularity is a normal technical development. Of longer term significance is the fact that the breadth index is still below the high reached six months ago in May. It is possible of course, that the breadth index will reach new high territory in the near future. This, however, will require a change in leadership. The rise in the early months of the year featured the glamour issues. This,in a an escape fr.om reality. 3upport a ' prices, so companies with-a strong trend of earnings growth were bid up tii rather ildi- — culous levels on the theory that future earnings would be sharply higher. This overspecul tion resulted in rapid declines of 30 to 60. Many of these stocks now have reached a level of at least temporary stabilization, but very few have formed sufficient reaccumu- lation areas to suggest a rise of any importance. More recently, a much higher-quality category of stocks has taken over the leadership. In the past few months, among the groups showing the best market 'action have been electric utilities, foods, finance, tobacco, drugs, and retail stores. These groups had been noted for their defensive qualities and usually sold at rather low P /E ratios and high yields. The recent rise has brought most of these issues to levels of 30 or more times earnings o.nd yields under 3. At these prices, they have lost a great many of their defensive characteristics. Moreover, from a technical viewpoint, most of them have reached the upside potentials outlined by their 1959-1960 base patterns. At least a lengthy period of consolidation appears indicated. Thus, if both the market and the breadth index high territory, new groups must take over. Most remaining f ture and a sharp rise in 1962 earnings will be necessary to bring 0. S1 e y. Most economists predict 0. higher level of business in 1962, bu whe this e will be sufficient to cause-,-. significantly eo.rnings 'in –s — s-is-stitl uncertain. Technio..- cally, there are a number of sufficient bases to indicate higher levels, including pipelines, rails, rubbers and textile. Oils also are showing 'mpro ca\pn1terns. From a i 0 plower-priced, speCUlative issues have been the features of the 1 market. 1;i hether this will again hold true is problem atical. Over a yea g, t' etter recommended twenty stocks selling below 20 a shar and early this l\r,arch d an additional five issues. 1,-ie strongly stressed the point that these i es should be bought as a package rather than concentrating on one or two issues. The reason for this stipulation is brought out by the diverse price action of this group in the past year, as shown in the complete list below. On an overall basis, the list has shown a rise of 28 as compo.red with a rise of 20ih-the Dow-Jones Indus- trial average from the time of purchase of each issue. Retention of the list is advised. marked are suggested as a package purchase for a possible sharp final up- swine in speculative issues with the proviso that they will be abandoned quickly if br8adt1 action does not improve. Price Price Price Price 11/4/60 11/24/61 Allied Faper 10 5/8 18 3/4 (3) Lmerican Standard 14 1/2 (1) 16 7/8 L'n vco 13 7/8 24 Eurlineton ffidustries 18 3/8 (1) 23 1/2 Camp'lell Chiboug. 5 7/8 6 5/8 Jt.lo.ul & P 15 1/- 15 7/8 cial Solvents 19 36 1/4 11/4/60 11/24/61 Kaiser Industries 8 -3/4 . 7/ Lear,Inc. 16 1/2 21 3/ McCrory Corp. Manhattan Shirt 13 19 (1) 22 1/ 29 3/ National Can 83/4 (2) 14 3/ Northwest lUrlines 15 3/4 Pacific Petroleum 10 1/4 29 3/ 12 1/ Ooayonier 16 3/8(2) 20 3/ ayne Plying Tiger Foote Eineral '-railer Gettv Cil 17 1/8 143/4 (1) 19 13 3/1 14 1/- 16 1/4 13 1/2 19 23 3/4. 15 1/2 Rohr Aircraft Servel Sun Chemical Victoreen Instrum. 15 12 1/8 13 5/8 165/8(1) 22 1/ 13 1/ 17 1/ 10 1/ k 'dhibd..t11;r,'no clrcums' es s tt4)C construJ-;t, nn offer to sell or 11 mn., contmned herem is not guaranteed na to Ilccuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof IS Eo1, a d er 15 to as, tlon by. Walston &,C0-j InG-, AIJ.. eXWASSlOns of OPInion IITC subJcct to Without notilf'la'l.h toll.; QJl;.IlQnltSOIUHil.elJ1;eflls,as)cI..hbM, 8n nettna- Ed hllc an mterest III the securities mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as n general, . commentary Ol)t S t!'I.IiJ. new.s an1 not us 11 com plete analysls Addrtiannrl. ,infDW'(Iatlion W;lth J;urtllCS referred to herein will he ie J.-.D.L!JJ…I . ' \\'N.301 . .

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