Viewing Month: January 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 06, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 06, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - January 06, 1961
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, &CO.Walston Inc —– FILE COii Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-\ICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 6, 1961 Market action this week cunformed to a 25-year old pattern. As this letter has previously pointed out, in every year since 1935 there has been a measurable year-end rally. It has, moreover, been suggested that these rallies have not been an early December phenomena, and that in every case they have carried on into the following January before reaching their high. There was suspicion that this might not be the case this year as on Tuesday, 1961's first trading day, the Dow-Jones Industrial average receded some 5.64 points. Howeverc onYednesda,y Jhe .market sharply its.eU ane!, Qn .heavy. volume, erased the lows and pushed on to new high ground with an ll-point advance in the Dow. The rally continued through mid-Thursday, reaching a high of 628.35 before a mild reaction on Thursday afternoon and Friday set in. A study of past rallies of this nature shows that the important figure to watch is now the December low of 589.92. Experience indicates that if the low of the previous December is not penetrated early in the following year, the trend for that year is, in- variably, up. In fact, since 1937, the December low, if ever broken, has always been broken by mid-March — usually in early January. Therefore, the longer that the averages hold above this December low figure, the more constructive the market out- look for 1961 becomes. Another phenomencn vhich has characterized year-end rallies is the fact that an advance of 10 from the December low has always indicated an up market in the following year. At its high this week, the Dow-Jones Industrial average had already advanced some 6 1/2 from the December low. A 100/0 advance would carry it to about 649 and would indicate the probability in 1961. A close study of market action over the pao ek'We . ly proves that such a rise is feasible. In the last week of 1960, te t f hat there were only four trading days, some 16 1/2 million h Volume on December , 30th was-Ifta two'-year high, well i sha. Ins interesting-to note tnat although the averages did little or h n e 1 week in December, advancing stocks outnumbered of the four trading days. The number of stocks advancing 0 h!i , nsiderably ahead of the 520 that declined during the same e y gh, this caused continued impressive action in our 25-week and v otals of upside and downside volume. It is worth noting that on both SIS, lde volume closed the year in new high territory, and downside volume in n ow territory. This week's action was also impressive. Although the Dow-Jones Industrials were off better than five points on Tuesday, 501 stocks advanced and only 551 declined. On Wednesday and Thursday with an advancing market, both volume and advancedecline figures were excellent. On Wednesday, there were 803 advances vs. 260 declines, and the figures on Thursday were 744 versus 330. Volume expanded from 2,770,000 shares on Tuesday to around the 4-million-share level on the following two days. On Friday, volume contracted somewhat and the averages were off, but it is interesting to note that, even with a drop in the averages, the number of advancing stocks was greater than the number of declining ones. Naturally, this type of action is constructive from a techni cal pOint of view. There appears, therefore, to be little reason to change the opinion previously expressed by this letter that market action for 1961 will be positive and that the current rally could still continue somewhat further before some temporary consolidation takes place. -ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. Dow-Jones Ind. 621.64 Dow-Jones Rails 135.65 ThiS market letter HI not nnd under no Circumstance!! IS to be construed as, an offer to seU or a sohcltatlOn to any securities referred to herem The mformation contmned herein is not g'unranteed.us to accuracy or completeness and the furnishmg thereof 18 not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- tlOn by Wnlston & Co, Inc, All of opinion nre subJect to chanRe Without notIce Walston & Co. Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereor, purchase, sell and may have an mterest In the securities mentionea herem ThiS market letter IS intended and merely as n informal commentary on day to day market newe nnIJ not as a complete analysis, Addlbonal InrormatlOl1 WIth respect to any secuntles referred to herem Will be , .. . ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - January 13, 1961
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lE COpy Walston &Co. Inc —– Members New york Stock Exchange NEW yeRK SAN FRANCISCO. ' . Les ANGELES PHIL1)DELPHIA OffiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS t 'f-t-' ..\. ,.. …..TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ' ,…. – I-',. LI .. t CHlCAGe January 13, 1961 The steck market appears to. be fellewing the technical pattern eutlined in re- cent letters. After reaching a deuble bettem areund the 565 level ii1. September and, Octeber, the Dow-Jenes I1i.dustriai average built up a sufficient base to. an ad- vance to. area; ,which is'the tep ef the heavy supply,area',between 600 and 660. Our timing fer this initiafebjective was January or February. At Friday! ;'d ,,' ,high ,of 636.20, the Industrials wereappreaching this ,.,..,' – '';t , Nerma1 technical actien weu1d call fer seme cerrectien er 'censelidatien after this ebjective is reached, An nermal ene-third cerrectin ef thelantici-. pated advance frem the September-,Octeber lew weuld bring the average back to. seme- where areund the 625-615 level seme time in early Spring. After that, we,weuld ex- pect at least a testingof the 1959-1960 high ef appreximately,,685 later in the year. '. (. I '.' , The present base areund.thet600 level indicates a leng- term upside ebjective ef semewhere between 700 and 750. A rally, to. fellewed by a decline to. the 625-600 level weuld breaden the upside ebjective and indicate an even higher petential. . Breadth-ef-the-market actien continues to. impreve. Advances eutnumbered declines by a wide ma'gin every day this week, and this, has been happening p,retty,. censistently since Nevember. One ef the two. dewntrend lines frem,the 1959 teps en the breadth;index \IiIIr.!l breken en the upside and the index,is quite cleseTe,the 1960 high despite the fact that the steck price averages are ceS' their ce!TI- parable highs. This actien cenfirms the upside f lines en vir- tually alIef the varieus averages. Velume n ig d new lews, and edd let studies ,are bullish the . In the final stages'ef a bull issuestend to-perferm – – – -, better than the general market. recemmendatien ef stecks 1S letter 0 O(!ia share. that, frem a technical view- peint, had interesting pside 0. 'a It was stressed that these issues be b u t a a r erder to. previde tien in a specula' t is ure. This lew-priced list is reprinted belew even theugh seme issue recemmended , abeve the 20.00 level. A ,. Price Current 11/4/60 Price purchase is again I ' , Price Current 11/4/60 ,Price . Allied Paper Avce Campbell Chiboug. Chic. ,Mil. ,St. Paul Cemmercial Selvents Divce-Wayne , ' Feote Mineral Fruehauf Trailer Getty Oil Intern!l Packers 10 5/8 13 7/B 5 7/8 15 1/4 19 1/8 19 18 3/4 i4 1/4 15 3/4 11 14 1/2 5 3/4 16 22 1/8 18 5/8 233/4 21 3/4 16 1/8 16 Kaiser Ind. 83/4 Lear, I n , c . . McCrery, Cerp. 16 1/2 13 Natienal Can 9 1/4 Nerthwest Air. 15 3/4 Pacific Petreleum 10 1/4 Rayenier 16 1/8 Rehr Aircraft 15 Servel 12 1/8 Sun Chemical 13 5/8 10 7/8 17 5/8 13 3/4 9 17 5/8 11 1/2 17 7/8 19 1/8 13 1/8 14 Dow-Jenes Ind. – 633.65 Dew-Jones Rails 139.63 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. ThIS market letter IS not. and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcltation to buy any securities referred to herem The informatIOn conttuned herein is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- tIOn by Walston & Co, Inc AU expressIons of opinion are subJeet to change Without Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Dueetor9, Stockholders and Employees thereof purchase, sell and may have an interest In the securities mentIoned herein. ThIS market letter Is Intended and llregented merely as a general. mformal commenWy on day to day market news nng.Jlot as a complete analyS16 Additional mformation With respect to any securities referred to herein wfIl be .. . . .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 20, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 20, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - January 20, 1961
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Walston &Co.– Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHjCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 20, 1961 The following is a summary of a'll address delivered by the writer on Wednesday, January 19th, 1961, to the Association of Custnmers' Brokers. The price of a stock is determined by four factors. Three of these factors, earn- ings, dividends and money rates, are tangible and measurable, and probably 950/0 of the time devoted to security analysis is devoted to a study of these three fundamental phenom ena. However, there is a fourth factor that is intangible, cannot be measured by dollars percentages or index numbers; but can, for a period of time, be more important in in- fluencing stock prices than the three fundamental factors mentioned above. The fourth factor- is It can-result in wide ell.-tremesin-price / earnings ratios,de – pending on the confidence of the investor in the future trend. In the case of a stock earn ing 10.00, a low confidence factor might result in a price of 75 or 7 1/2 times earnings, while high investor confidence might produce a price of 250 or twenty-five times earning There is no way to measure these ups and downs of investor psychology except by the tec – nical action of the stock market itself. Despite the fact that the market appears extremely high on the basis of fundamental technical factors lead to the conclusion that the stock market ayerages will move higher i 1961. In fact, 1961 price action will probably be the reverse of 1960 with the lows reach d early in the year and the highs late in the year. The low on the Dow-Jones Industrials in 1961 will probably be above 600 as compared with the 1960 low of 565. On the upside, a testing of the 1959-1960 high of 685 is expected with the probability of a new high in the 700-750 range. For the nearer term, the market has advanced from an intra-day low of 564.23 in late October. Probably some technical correction of advance is needed Our upside objective has been the 640-660 level. rec t .'gl0kas 39.17. After a te – porary high is reached in January or February, cal on would call for a censolidating period in February and March with a side objective of 625-615, foUewed ..by in the year. Breadth-of-the-market onsiderably since November and I weuld expect new groups to Technical action indicates that the glamour e of 1960 will be replaced by some of the more cyclical groups. e 0 u rd price movements in selected issues that have been slowly buildi ee attractive technical patterns over a period of time. Th issues listed below ve very little marketwise for several years, but are selling at reasonable price- arnings ratios and are yielding 40/0 to over 50/0. The downside risk in these issues appears relatively small as compared to the general market and the upside potential is above average. This group includes Anderson Clayton ( 38) which has a worldwide 'peration in cotton, vegetable oilS, and food products. Foreign opera- tions are large. Yield is 5.30/0. Cluett, Peabody ( 65) with a yield of 4.20/0 appears reasonably priced on its Arrow line of men's apparel and its Sanforized Division, but there is an added kicker in its Clupak Division and its extensible paper process. Diamond National ( 41) is becoming a packaging company, and while its past record has been unimpressive, the future is most interesting. Eastern Gas & Fuel ( 32) yields over 50/0 and among other reasons has appeal because of its large holdings of Nor- folk & Western and Algonquin Gas Great Western Sugar (.32) is the largest domestic beet sugar producer and should fully participate in the expanding sugar market in the U. S. Yield is 5.0'/0. Intern'l Minerals & Chem.(38) recently released sharply higher earnings for the second quarter of the hscal year. World demand for the company's two major products, phosphate and potash, is growing strongly. The mpany has large potash deposits in Saskatchewan. Swift & Co. (47) is the largest meat-packing e)mpany in the world and should benefit from the modernization of this industry. Other attractive situations where yield is low but growth potential is good, include Amer. Pntash & Chern. (46), Great Northern Paper (55), Electric Storage Battery ( 56), Microwave Assoc. ( 38), National Aviation (28), Pitney Bowes ( 42). and U.S.Borax (42). Dow-Jones Ind. 634.37 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. is under no as, an offer aIS to be construed to sell or soliCItation to buy any SeeUritleli referred to herein The mformahon contamed herein 18 not guaranteed Il.B to accuracy or cOnlpleteness and the thereo! IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be ,onstrued as, a representa- tion by Walston & Co Inc All expresSlQns of OPlnlon are subject to change Without nobce. Walston & Co, Inc.. and Officers, Directors. Stockholders and Employee!! thereof, sell and may have an mterest m the SecUrities mentlOned herem ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely WI a general. mformal commentary on day to day market news ang not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal mformatlon With respect to any secUrities referred to herem ..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 27, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 27, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - January 27, 1961
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Walston &- Co. Inc. – – – – – fiLE COpy . Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-\ICAGO I OffiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER January 27, 1961 Market actinll so far bq h.,eH hu11t ,,9 eJ.Jecten. The Dow-Jones Industrial aver. age reached an intra-day high of 642.68 on Monday and entered the lower part of the heav; overhead resistance in the 640 -660 area. Profit-taking turned the market down in mid- week and the Industrials declined to a low of 632.66 on Thursday. Friday's strong rally carried the average to 648. 17 ,a new intra-day high since the October low. Our thought has been that a temporary top would be reached in January-February in the 640-660 area and would be followed by a February-March consolidation that might reach a low in the 625-615 area. The sequel would be a test of the year-old 688.21 .high of January,. 1960 later in the year, and from present technical indications, a probable upside penetration of the old high. Over the next month or so, I would expect a wide trading area in which the action of individual stocks will be of much more importance than the action of the average . Would use nearby strength into the 640-660 area to liquidate holdings in situations with un favorable technical patterns and take advantage on dips to around the 625-615 level to add to holdings in recommended issues. Weakness in the defense issues on Thursday, due to the release of the American flyers and possible easing in the cold war tension, seems quite premature and, in my opinion, presents a buying opportunity. Four companies in the missile and related fields are in our recommended list. They are Martin Co.(60 7/8), North Amer.Aviation(46 Northrop (42 1/8, and Thompson-Ramo (72 1/4), and four other issues, Boeing Airplane (36 1/4), Garrett Corp. (503/8), Lear (17 1/8) and Rohr Aircraft (18 3/a, are in related fields with less dependence on missiles. Retention of all eight issues is advised, and add- ing to holdings on moderate weakness is indicated. . my recommended lis , National Aviation (26 5/8),is a closed-end investment co fends largely in air- craft manufacturers, space age firms, and a i n airlines. These ' to in the . on .u. . a . The meat packing shares have e . action. and Wllson & Co. (47 112, originally suggested as a buy at 15 recommended list, reached a new all-time high recently at on our recommended list and issue, Swift & Co. (463/4), is also market .despite the fact that first fiscal quarter n excellent quarter of a year ago. Some in- crease in hog sl Spring and larger cattle marketings are in pros- pect. Swift & Co. 1 ppe the U. S. Supreme Court the decision last month that continues to prevent e pany from dealing in some 140 named food and non-food item , running retail meat grocery stores or selling fresh milk or cream. While not particularly impressed with the outlook for the automobile group, I believe Ford Motor (69 1/2) is an interesting long-term purchase. At present prices, the yield is about 4 1/4 on the well-covered 3.00 dividend. The stock is selling at about nine times estimated 7.80 earnings for 1960. A potentially strong technical pat- tern has been built up in the 70-60 range in which the stock has held for the past six months. Ford Motor is added to our recommended list. I believe it has a better long- term profit potential than either Chrysler (39 7/8) or General Motors (43 7/8). To illustrate the diverse action of the market, over one-third of the issues in our recommended list in the past five sessions ending Thursday, reached new high terri- tory for the thirteen months of 1960-1961, despite the fact that the Industrial average is some 45 points below the January 1960 high of 688.21. They are Amer. Metal Climax Amer. Potash Chem. Amer. Viscose CIT Financial Chiago Pneu. Tool Cluett , P. eab 0 dy Columblan Carbon Consol.Natural Gas Deere & Co. Diamond National Eastern Gas & Fuel F t Cl;t t W General Amer. Transp. General Mills Gerber Products Great North. Paper Great Weetern Sugar Haveg Industn.es Hercules Powder Ne.wport Intern 1 Mm. Chem. Jewel Tea Johnson & Johnson Marquette Cement Northern Natural Gas Pillsbury Mills Richfield Oil Sout'ern Natural Gas Sterhng Drug, Inc. TTeexnansesGseuelf CSourlpph. ur Thompson-Ramo Wool. Twentieth Century-Fox U S Borax '. . 011 Prod. Wllson & Co. -'. .-

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