Viewing Month: March 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - March 03, 1961
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Walston &CO. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEnER March 3, 1961 Since November, the market has continued to follow the pattern suggested by tech nical market action. Resistance was expected at the heavy overhead supply area at in the Dow-Jones Industrial average. It required almost four weeks of extremely heavy volume to absorb the supply of stock offered. This supply area has now been- penetrated on the upside and the Industrial average reached an intra-day high of 676. 14 on Friday. This is very near the August, 1959 high of 683.90 and the January, 1960 high of 688.21. Just how much resistance'will be encountered at the fOl'mer highs-is problematical. As – long suggested, the minimum upside potential appears to be 725-750 over the interme- diate term. Despite the backing and filling in the averages since late January, the breadth-of- the-market index has continued to move ahead and has advanced for eleven consecutive weeks. This is the direct opposite action of the technical pattern from October 1959 to January 1960. At that time, the average was advancing, but the breadth index was makin new lows. From the figures available up to the end of January, it would appear that the publi has been selling on balance since the rise started in October and that institutions and pro fessionals have been buyers. Customers' Balance figures ,for January indicate a sharp rise in Free Credit Balances and only a negligible rise in Debit Balances. February figures are not yet available. Odd-lot studies also seem to indicate that the smaller investor has been selling on balance. Incidentally, in the sharp, almost straightline ad- vances, of 1949, 1954 and 1958, the same increase in took place. It was not until the market was approaching its high that ee itCBalances decreased. However, in the three instances noted above, This has not yet occurred. 1\. VA e l i ased sharply. ..,- In bull !llarket, i than the general market. On Nove 11' lett blished a packagerecommen- dation of stocks selling below 20.0 e at om a technical viewpoint, had in- teresting upside potentials ct It was stressed that these issues be list of this nature As of Thu \We average price advance of these twenty low-priced issues was 23.5 f 0 IUer 4th, as against 12.30/0 for the Dow-Jones Industrial average for the same od. If the market continues to advance, it would be expected that this spread wiI iden. The list is reprinted below. Some issues have moved above 20.00 a share, but retention is still advised. I am also adding the following five issues to the list. A package purchase is still advised. The new additions are American Radiator & Standard Sanitary (141/2), Burlington Industries (18 3/8), Flying Tiger (143/4), Manhattan Shirt (19) and Victoreen Instruments (165/8). Allied Paper Avco Campbell Chiboug. Chic. ,Mil. ,St. Paul Commercial Solvents Divco-v7ayne Foote Mineral Fruehauf Trailer Getty Oil International Packers Price 11/4/60 10 5/8 13 7/S 5 7/S 15 1/4 19 17 l/S 19 IS 3/4 14 1/4 15 3/4 Current Price 12 1/4 17 7 3/4 17 3/S 25 5/S 17 1/2 24 1/2 22 3/S 17 1/4 19 3/4 Price Current 11/4/60 Price Kaiser Ind. 8 3/4 Lear, Ind. 16 1/2 McCrory Corp. 13 National Can 9 1/4 Northwest Air. 15 3/4 Pacific Petroleum 10 1/4 11 5/8 20 18 – 9 21 12 1/2 Rayonier Rohr Aircraft 16 l/S 20 1/4 15 21 5/S Serve1 Sun Chemical 12 l/S 16 3/4 13 5/S 14 7/S – Dow-Jones Ind. – 671.57 Dow Jones Rails – 144. S4 EDMUND yv. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. This market letter 15 not and under no eircurnstnnces 16 to be construed 8S, an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy any securities referred. to herem The informatIOn contained herem 18 not as to accuracy or completeness and the furDlshing thereof IS not, and under no circumstances 19 to be construed as, 8. representa- tIOn by Walston & Co.. Inc. All expressions of opinion are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof purchase, sell and may have an interest to the securities mentioned herem ThiS market letter is mtended and presented merely as a general, informal on day to day market news not as a complete analysIS Addltwnai informatIOn WIth respect to any securities referred to herem ,,111 be furmshed upon request. . . . .. .. . . . 'N.31

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - March 10, 1961
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Walston &Co. FILE COpy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 10, 1961 After reaching an intra-day high of 678.23 on Monday, the Dow-Jones Industrial average declined to an intra-day low of 658.57 on Friday. Probably a technical correction is overdue. A one-third correction of the 115-point advance from the October lows would bring the average back to 640. This would be a 5/0 decline, which is about the maximum to be expected at this stage of the technical pattern. ELECTRIC STORAGE BATTERY CO. Current Frice 58 Expanding and new develo Current 2.00 ment, have created many opportunities for investo Current Yield 3.5 over recent years. Such opportunities, however, Long-Term Debt Common Stock 2,851,000 1,712, 145 shs. Sales-1960 148,124,000 Earned Per. Sh.1960 3.58 have all too often involved the purchase of extremely speculative securities with consequent assumption of a good deal of downside risk. It is all too rare to find an established and stable com pany with an excellent earnings base which still Mkt.Range (1961-60) 73 – 50 3/8 has an opportunity to increase revenues sharply, through applied research and technological develo ments. Such a company is Electric Storage Battery. ESB is a major producer of batteries of all shapes and sizes, ranging from flash light batteries, through automobile cells, to the largest industrial batteries. Earnings per share (3.58 in 1960) have been extremely stable, 2li, over the past five years. Continuity of the 2.00 dividend appears assured, osition is excellen with net working capital per share amounting to alrtJ1a h m VAvalue of 48. 93 per share. t\ price, and book —. – Not content simply to be a leading atteries.,.ESB. prefers to re- gard itself as a leader in significant amounts on research, en e ed er. To this end, it has expended \.0. duct development in this area. Among the new fields which the are the following Fuel Cells – T es h roduce electric power from a chemical re- action could ulti te e . ce of evergy. ESB' s research in this field has been intensified, a as signed agreements with seventeen leading material – handling-equipment anuf rers, to develop a fuel cell to power their vehicles. With these agreements, th mpany could have an assured market for fuel cells once a prac- ticable product is de eloped. Electric Trucks – The company owns a 51 interest in the .Cleveland Electric Vehicle Company, now in initial stages of production. The possibilities of the use of electric trucks by Post OffIces have been extensively investigated, and it is estimated that, in many cities they could be utilized at a 50 saving over gasoline-powered ve- hicles. Obviously, any increased use of electric vehicles could have an important effect on battery sales. Microporous Plastics – This material, a joint development of ESB and Reeves Brothers,Inc. ,is water-proof and yet allows the penetration of air. Raincoats,and other garments made from this material have received an excellent trade reception and are now available in retail stores. Industry sources feel that within a few years a major portion of the raincoat market could be captured and important applications in their fields could be developed. (REEVES BROS., which is being added to our recommended list, also offers an interesting participation in this and other fields to those investors who can afford a greater degree of risk). The company holds a government research and development contract for an electro,chemical proce'lrrembVing saU froin &ea water. The above plus the company's 'stable earnings base, combine to create an attractive investment opportunity. This is reflected in the technical pattern for the stock which shows a long -term objective of over 100, with strong support at around the 50 level. The stock, which has been on the recommended list for some time, is again suggested for purchase in investment accounts. Dow-Jones Ind, 663.56 ' ANTHONY W. TABELL unJriba,&OOnswnces is to be construed as, an offer to sell or a rmQ iO herein The mformation contalOed herein IS not guaranteed as to aCCUracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not, and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- tlOn b)' Walston & Co Inc All expressions of opimon arc subJect to change without 'Ynlston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an Interest in the securities Thl.!1 market letter IS intended n.nd presented merely as IL geneml. Informal commentary on day to day market news any' not ILl! a complete analysIs AddItional informatIOn WIth respect to nnlo' securities referred to herein furnlshc'd upon request .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 17, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 17, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - March 17, 1961 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - March 17, 1961 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - March 17, 1961 page 3
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r -…..,.-.-'– copyI filE Walston &Co. tnc. – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-\ICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 17,1961 After backing and filling during the early part of the week, the general market turned strong late Wednesday afternoon and the Dow-Jones Industrials reached an intra- day high of 681. 63 on Friday, considerably exceeding the March 3rd high of 676.14. This letter continues to belleve that a constructlve attitude toward the market is still warranted, despite the sharp advance, and the upside objective for the Dow continue to be in the 700-750 range. Whether or not this level will be reached in a straight-line advance is problematical. Obviously, a correction of some nature is possible at this sta e of the game, but, as has been previously pointed out, most bull markets in recent years have tended to run their course wlthout any substantial correction until the top, or. some- thing very close to the top, is reached. Thus, It is far more lmportant to seek out secu- rities at levels which seem to represent attractive values and make immediate purchase rather than wait, perhaps in vain, for probable short-term reactions. In this connection, we are again publishing our recommended list of some 114 securities. Of these 114, 58 are rated as suitable for new buying at this time. The re- mainder consist of previously-recommended stocks where retention is still advised. Two stocks have been removed from the lIst as they have reached previously stated technical objectives. These are Northrop, which has reached its objective of 52, and Universal Oil Products which has attained its potential of 45. Northrop was originally recommende at 33 and Universal Oil at 31 3/8. The complete list can be obtained from your V,lalston repre sentative. A close analysis of the market action of the stocks on our list reveals that their performance has been satisfactory. As stated above, there are 114 stocks in the list, in addition to 5 which have been removed since the 1st of all but 5 are selling above their originally recommJr6ded 60 these 119 securitie , 49 of the 119 are sell ing 20 or more above their originally f t , 7 have advanced more than 50 with the largest advance being almoN; si he original recommend – tjol.l. The most serious.decline has been Hon of the performance of these ere originally suggested for purchase. 500/0 7 300;0 – 49 Is v ed 10 – 19 s es anced less than 100/0 s s declined 42 37 28 5 119 EYen more interesting is a tabulation of recent performance, since the various stocks in the list were recommended at different times. The list was largely expanded and revised at the end of 1960 at which time the Dow-Jones Industrial average was sell- ing at 615.89. To Thursday's close it had advanced to 670.38, or some 8.1. Of the 109 issues that were suggested as suitable for new buying on December 30, 1960, 75 have advanced more than has the Dow. Thirteen are now selling more than 30 above their levels of two and one-half months ago, and 30 are selling 20 or more above those levels. Only 7 issues have declined since the end of the year with the most serious de- cline being 10. A complete tabulation of the performance of these stocks since De- cember 30th follows Issues advanced 300/0 or more 13 Issues advanced 20 – 29 17 Issues advanced 10 – 190/0 43 Issues advanced less than 100/0 29 Issues declined 7 109 Obviously, after a performance of this nature many stocks are close to upside objectives and will become candidates for profit-taking as the market advances. We are, however, reluctant to remove stocks from the list until six months after the ori- ginal recommendation, or unless the market pattern deteriorates markedly. As the ad- vance continues,acceptance of profits in various issues will be suggested in this letter. D lbl,ij. m.rrrlult.letter ./lot. and he18 to bc conetrued as, an ff to 11 A or completeness Rnd the furnJshmlf t eroo tlon by. Walston 4…,Co All expressIOns of opinion are subJect to. c;hange '1fY I ..J .Mtonh8etrrueemd aTsh, ea inrefoprrmesaetnIOtan d Qi.t; Dlrectors Stockholders and m'erely as a general. informatIOn WIth respect to an'y secunlles referred to herem ———- .———– — lI i ' f!…. Cfl RECOMMENDED LIST OF STOCKS Edmund W. Tabell I March 17, 19 61 SELLING ABOVE 1 Walston &Co. Inc. ! A SHARE Close 3/16/61 American Broad. Para. 47 3/4 American Chicle 88 3/4 Amer. Metal Climax 27 1/8 Amer. Optical 64 1/2 Amer. Potash & Chern. Amer. Smelt. & Ref. 53 60 1/2 1 Amer. Stores 81 1/2 American Viscose 47 1/8 Anderson Clayton 39 3/4 Arkansas Louis. Gas 40 3/4 Audio Devices 28 1/2 Barber Oil 70 Bestwall Gypsum 48 Boeing Airplane 47 CIT Financial 75 1/8 Carnation Co 84 Caterpillar Tractor 35 7/8 Central & So. West 41 Chicago Pneumatic Tool 36 1/4 City Produ cts 52 3/4 Cluett Peabody 71 1/2 Columbia Pictures 30 1/2 Columbian Carbon 55 3/4 Consolo Mining & Smelt. 23 5/8 Consolo Natural Gas 56 1/4 Crown Cork & Seal 65 3/4 Daystrom 29 3/8 Deere & Co 55 1/4 Diamond National 46 1/2 Dome Mines 21 7/8 Eastern Gas & Fuel 35 5/8 Electric Storage Battery 61 5/8 El Paso Natural Gas 27 7/8 Ex-Cell-O 39 1/8 Fansteel Metallurgical 53 1/2 First Charter Financial 39 1/8 Food Machine Chern. 73 3/4 Ford Motor 77 1/4 Freeport Sulphur 32 Garrett Corp. 55 5/8 General Amer. Transport. 83 1/4 General Mills 33 1/4 General Precision Equip. 74 1/8 Georgia Pacific Plywood 65 Gerber Products 84 Granite City Steel 43 Great Northern Paper 65 Great Western Financial 45 Great Western Sugar 31 1/2 Haveg Industries Hercules Powder 107 3/4 95 Hertz Corp. 64 1/2 Heyden Newport 25 1/2 Holly Sugar 31 1/2 Ideal Cement 29 7/8 Original Recom. Price 45 3/4 76 24 5/8 54-50 42 7/8 55 1/8 77 3/4 52 3/8 36 3/4 35 3/4 26 3/8 70 41 36 3/4 67 66 1/4 30 1/2 40 1/4 28 3/8. 443/4 56 3/4 21 7/8 52 1/2 20 3/8 51 1/8 43 1/8 45-43 52 3/4 35 1/2 25 1/8 29 3/4 54 28 35 3/4 45-44 29 1/8 60 3/4 69 1/2 24 7/8 51 7/8 79 3/4 32 3/8 56 49 56 37 1/2 57 31 1/4 29 86 5/8 80 1/4 65 1/8 23 7/8 30 1/2 26 7/8 &P Rating B A B B B B A B B ABB A A A B B B B B B A BB B B B B B B A B A B A AA A B B A B B B B A A B B Comment fBuY-Hold Hold for 95-100 ' Buy-Hold I Buy-Hold i Buy-Hold Buy-Hold I Buy-Hold Buy-Hold f Buy-Hold ' Buy-Hold II Buy-Hold Buy-Hold , Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 107 Hold for 45 Hold for 54 Hold for 47 Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy'Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 75-80 Buy-Hold Hold for 80-85 Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 50 Hold for 58 Hold Hold for 90 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Hold Hold for 90 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 115-125 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Close 3/16/61 Insurance Co. ,N.A. 893/4 Intern'l Mm. & Chern. 42 1/8 Intern'l Tel & Tel 58 3/4 Jewel,'re,a 57 3/4 Johns Manville 71 Johnson &l.J'lOhnson 'h Kennecott' Copper 102 85 Kern C04nty'Land 64 5/8 Lone Star'Gas 23 3/4 Louisiana Land Explor. 71 Magnavox Co 65 7/8 Marquette Cement 63 1/2 Martin Co 35 7/8 McCall Corp. 51 1/4 McIntyre Porcupine 29 3/4 Mesabi Iron 115 Microwave Associates 54 3/8 Miss.River Fuel 38 1/4 National Aviation 28 1/8 Newm9nt 'Miiling' 70 1/2 North Amer.Aviation 49 1/2 Northern Natural Gas 33 7/8 Northern Pacific R.R. 47 1/2 Oklahoma Gas & Elec. 38 7/8 Pacific Gas & Elec. 83 Panhandle Eastern Pipe 51 1/2 Penney, J.C. 41 1/2 Phillips Petroleum 59 1/2 Pillsbury Mills 49 3/8 Pitney Bowes 45 3/4 Pittsburgh Plate Glass 76 1/4 Reeves Bros. 23 1/2 Richfield Oil 99 Royal Dutch 41 7/8 Seaboard Airline R.R. 31 7/8 Seaboard Finance 28 5/8 Singer Manufacturing 73 1/4 Southern Calif. Edison 74 1/8 Southern Natural Gas 42 1/2 Standard Oil of Kentucky 74 Sterling Drug 83 Swift & Co 45 7/8 Tennessee Corp. 55 7/8 Texas Gulf Sulphur Thompson Ramo Wool. Twentieth Century-Fox 23 1/8 75 3/4 53 3/4 United Air Lines 40 1/2 United Artists 38 3/4 United Biscuit United Shoe Machinery U .S.Borax U.S. Foil B U. S. Vitamin Varian Associates 41 3/4 71 42 1/2 39 3/4 44 3/8 63 Warner Bros. Pictures Winn-Dixie Stores Woolworth, F. W. Wrigley, Wm., Jr. 67 29 5/8 70 5/8 105 3/4 Zenith Radio 119 1/8 -2- Original Recom. Price 78 32 48 50 1/4 60 74 3/4 74 1/8 53 23 5/8 50 1/2 19 53 1/4 26 29 7/8 27 3/4 86 1/2 33 1/8 34 1/8 27 3/4 62 1/2 41 1/2 30 3/8 42 1/8 35 1/4 75 3/4 47 7/8 41 1/2 53 7/8 44 5/8 41 69 3/4 24 5/8 84 42 32 3/8 22 1/4 48 66 38 3/8 70 1/2 69 3/4 44 1/2 50 19 1/8 57 3/4 36 3/4 30 3/4 32 1/2 37 3/4 59 37 3/4 50 1/4 37 40 3/4 52 7/8 22 1/2 69 99 99 1/4 S&P Rating B B A A A B A A B A B B – A AB AA AA A A A A BA A B B A AA A B A B A B B B B B B B A B A AB A Comment Hold JBUY-HOld Hold Buy-Hold, , ' 'Hold IBuy-Hold IHold for 80-85 Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 75 Hold for 70-86 Hold Hold I, Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 65-75 Hold for 50 Buy-Hold I Buy-Hold Hold I Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 54 Hold for 90-100 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 90-95 Buy-Hold Hold for 120-130 Hold for 45-50 Buy-Hold Hold for 34 Hold Hold for 80-90 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 98 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold , Hold for 56 Hold for 45 Buy-Hold Hold for 80-100 Buy-Hold Hold Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 75 Hold for 32-34 Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 150-170

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 24, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 24, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - March 24, 1961
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Walston fTCo . Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 24, 1961 After moving ahead sharply on Monday, the Dow-Jones Industrial average showed little change on Tuesday and Wednesday, and after flirting with a new high at Wednesday' peak of 685.32, turned reactionary to close the week at 672.48. The most noteworthy feature of the week was the action of the Rail average which, on Tuesday, managed to reach a new high for the period since early 1960, touching 152.72 on Wednesday. An upside projection for the Rails is difficult to figure. It is possible to count a technical objective of 178-180, but there is heavy overhead supply all the way from current levels to 170, which will definitely slow any upside movE.. . Overall, te-chnical indicators- continue to- show positive–action and there appears no reason to change the constructlVe attitude toward the market suggested by this letter for the past few months. There has been a good deal of talk in financial circles about increased public participation in the equity market. There is, unfortunately, no concrete definition of who the pUblic is. In fact, it has often been suggested that the puJlic is anyone who buys stocks after analysts who think stocks are too high have sold. At any rate, it seem to be universally agreed that public participation constitutes somE; sort of a danger signal. Actually, if we are to define the public as the mass of individual investors and speculators who are clients of New York Stock Exchange member firms, there is little evidence to suggest that public activity has been excessive in recent months. One re- liable indicator of public interest in the market is net debit balances in individual margin accounts maintained with NYSE members. This figure totaled some 3,426 millions at the end of February 1961, about 10/0 of the total market ratio having been fairly constant over the past few A'8ars. t securities; this est to note that net debit balances are still some 100 million Is arly 1959. In addition, the recent increase has not been en compared to past ex- perience; For example, from 1-949 to ncreasedsome r680/0,followea — by a 1320/0 increase from 1951 to as s 400/0 through 1958 to the 1959 high. So far, they have the 1957 low. rw- e low of last July and just 340/0 from Figures substantial rise' f in accounts also fail to give any indication of a c y 'nce May 1960, the number of such accounts has in- creased moderate to 315,000,a figure well under the December 1958 high of 325,000. Perhaps the 0 ndicator of public activity that shows any substantial increase is the total of customer's free credit balances. As might not at first be suspected,this figure tends to rise along with rising markets, probably due to an increasing inclination on the part of customers to leave funds in brokerage accounts for reinvestment during periods of bullish sentiment. This figure has risen rather sharply and has reached new high territory some 480/0 above its 1960 low. However, this increase is small compared with a 1949-51 increase of 800/0 and a 1953-55 increase of 660/0. Another interesting facet of both the debit balance and credit balance figures is their long history of leading the general market. For example, net debit balances reached their peak ten months prior to the averages in 1945-46, almost two years prior to the averages in 1951-53, and four months before the averages in 1959. The net debit balance figure started to turn up seven months before the averages in 1953, three months ahead of the averages in 1957 and three months ahead of the general market in 1960. Figures on free credit balances have shown a similar tendency. Thus, the cur- rent nse in these figures, in addihon to being moderate, is less of a cause for alarm than a lrotra cted decline would be. . In short, increased public participation is a fine high-sounding phrase, but one which appears hardly to be borne out by available statistics. Dow-Jones Ind. 672.48 Dow-Jones Rail.s 148.18 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter 18 not. Rnd under no circumstances is to be construed as, an offer to sell or n Bohcitntion to buy any securities r.eferred to herem The informatIon contmned herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness nnd the iurnL!!hlng thereof IS not, and under no circumstances lli to be construed as, 11 rcprCtlenLa tlOn by Walston & Co. Inc. All expressIOns of opinion nre subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, l.ne , and Officers, Directors, nnd Employees thereof purchase sell and may have an interest In the securities mentIOned herem. ThiS market letter 18 mtended and presented merely HS 11 general. wWmformal commentAry on day to day market news aDfJ. not ne; n complete analySIS. AdditIOnal mformatlOn with respect to any securities referred to herem . . .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 30, 1961

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 30, 1961

Tabell's Market Letter - March 30, 1961
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fiLE COpy Walston fTCo. Inc —- Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHlCAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Fort Myers Beach, Florida Marchi30, 1961 As I look across the Gulf of Mexico from a comfortable beach chair ensconced on the white sands of sunny Florida, this restful vacation hardly seems conducive to thoughts about the technical pattern of the stock market. However, I have just, finished reading a number of market opinions that express concern about the steep rise lin prices over the past five months and the weakened technical position of the market thought a reply wa, needed. There is no denying that the market is high on the basis the past piE ratios and YIelds. But some of the danger signals mentioned in several current market opinion warrant a somewhat closer -examination ..,They- seem to-us reasoning that is not in line with'the actual facts and figures ' One of these danger signals — increased public participatidn– was covered in last week's letter. Rather than a concerted rush of public buying, actual figures indi- I cate that the public has increased its percentage of buying at a relatively small rate and, in some cases, may be selling on balance. The odd-lot figures confitm this opinion. Another danger signal is supposedly the greatly increased vqlume of trading whic is approaching the levels of 1929. These statements are correct in part, but do not take I the entire background into consideration. According to the Monthly Review of the New Yor Stock Exchange (a most interesting and factual publication), the daily average of reported share volume on the NYSE for the month of February was 4.9 millioh shares. Turnover for the American Stock Exchange and the Unlisted market is, of course, not included in this figure. Volume on the Unlisted market has increased sharply recently, but probably is still only a small fraction of listed trading. The NYSE figures for! March will be higher and will probably average a daily turnover of around 5.3 ares. This compares with a daily average turnover of 4.2 million shares for J aT liB; year, and 3 million shares for February a year ago. The highest -1 u nove I record was 6.9 million shares for the month of November, 1929 wh n e mar as in the midst of the taken into consideration. Today, there are seve en 0i s listed on the NYSE than there six hmes as gre 2 d i ' , the increase in population OVer the past thirty years has resulte n , more investors in the market. Tnese factors must be considered when tod 's v e is compared with 1929. A more accurate figure is the monthly turnover of t shares listed on the NYSE at an annual rate. The latest fIgure reported is 190/0 for e month of February. That means that for the month, the total shares listed were turned over at an annual rate of 190/0 or that, roughly, only one out of five shares listed changed ownership during the course of the year. The highest rate of turnover since 1925 was not reached in 1929, but in November, 1928 or some ten months before the 1929 peak in prices. The rate of turnover in November, 1928 was 1900/0 or ten I times that of February, 1961 when the average daily volume was 4. 9,million shares. To equal the 1928 rate, daily volume of 49.0 million shares would be required today! It is interesting to note that t h e- – h — igh in volume of the 1924-192I 9 market was reach- ed ten months before prices reached their high in September, 1929.; This is the usual pattern. on both thelO-week and 25-week moving totals in the 1953- 1956 market was r7ached in 1955; desplte-the fact-that the averages continued to advance until April, 1956. In the 1957 to 1959 advance, the high in volume was reached in March, 1959 while the averages reached their highs in August, 1959 and January, 1960. This type action has occurred in every major advance and refutes another danger signal that increasing volume on an advance means a buying climax and the approach of a major decline. Actually, the opposite is true. The danger signal is when the volume adeclines while the market is continuing to advance. This indicates loss of upside momentum. I From a technical point of view,it is my opinion that the so-called danger signals that have been mentioned recently are not actually danger signals and that they have no validity. I believe the market is still in the relatively early stages 9f an advancing phase and js sllbject only to the occasional Dormal technical correction of 5 or so. and is to be con!otruerlas, an offer to ell to ho!rem The informatIon cUbUi.mM lfEM!lhh a'l!'curacy or completeness and the no cOlllltrued as, a representa N).QlJ…b,! of op!mon are subJect to, change without Directors, Stockholders dnd Jun-e an mterest In the securities mentlonM hereM mereJy as a l!'encraJ. mformal commentary on day to day market ne….S and not as a complete analYSIS. AdditIonal mforJnatlOn With respect to any secunttes referred tu herem Will be 1

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