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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 07, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 07, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - October 07, 1960
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Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchallge FILE NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 7, 1960 Last week's market action provioed little comfort for either the bull or the bear. On the bullish side, the popular averages did advance,and volume on the last three days of the week when the market moved ahead was considerably heavier than was the case on Monday and Tuesday when the averages were off. A short-term buy signal was regis- tered in the earlier part of the week on a rebound from an oversold condition. Advance- decline figures, however, could have been more impressive,and, on an overall basis, volume was light compared with the trend of recent weeks. There is,therefore, still no. certainty that the September 29th low of-565.49 Dow-Jones Industrials will be the final bottom of the current declining phase. It is possib however, to reiterate the thesis with which we concluded last week's letter, namely, that current weakness provides an opportunity for the purchase of carefully-selected commo stocks on a long term basis. In other words, now more than ever, it is a time to forget about what the averages mayor may not do and concentrate on attractive investment op- portunities. While such opportunities do not appear to be in prolific abundance, they certainly exist. One of the oldest of the stock market's numerous old saws is the one about the best stocks to buy after a decline being those that have acted the best and those that have acted the worst. As is the case with all such aphorisms, this one contains much truth. Along these lines, we can pick out two broad groups of stocks which appear currently attractive. The first group is composed of stocks which went down little, if at all, during the market break. Selected aircraft-missile shares are an example. Martin Co. (52 1/2) for example, closed at 56 5/8 just before the Dow broke it never got lower than 48 l/4,and the subsequent reboun in 0 bottom of the decline IdW 50's was sharp and decisive. The stock, currently,is selling for earnings of 4.60, with improvement projected for wIt' s estimated 1960 It' e ely identified with the missile-electronics phase of the defense ss u -or a — -portion which has recentlyproved sodisas – as ependence on the airframe er ofc;mpanies. While the – – – possibility of cancellation of a su s that for the Titan weapon system, is a risk that must be Meanwhile, the stock s str g smaller than many investors suppose. p t 45 with an upside objective of 87-97, making the investment od s' c rather strong. Other stocks in the defense group appear equally a 1 . s reasons,notably,North American Aviation (41 1/4). At the other n of scale from the aircrafts are those stocks which have been in private bear marke their own, some for as long as four years. This includes oils, papers,airlines an ailroads, many of which are selling at discounts of more than 50 from their bull-market highs and have come very close to downside objectives. Paper stocks provide a case in point. International Paper (89) has declined from a high of 144 in 1956 to a recent low of 85 1/8. The downside objective, based on the 1959 distribu- tional top, was in the 90-85 range. Current prices mark it at some 14 times projected 1960 earnings at a time when excess capacity in the paper and paperboard industry is slowly being utilized. It would certainly appear that in the mid-80's, its prospects are being rather soberly valued. Other paper companies seem to have a similar fundamen- tal and technical outlook. It is, of course, not enough to buy stocks siIllply because they are down from earlier highs. First of all, in issues such as the papers, no bases have yet been formed, so there appears to be no excessive hurry to make immediate purchases. They can be bought, rather, on additional weakness. Furthermore, buying levels should be consider- ed in the light of downside objectives of the original tops. Vihile the papers for the most part were fairly close to these objectives at recent lows, there appears to be the possibil ity of more room on the downside in many steels and chemicals. Purchase of these issues should be deferred until the pattern clarifies. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. NOTE My father has asked me to convey his sincere thanks to the hundreds of readers of this letter all over the country who sent him cards and letters during his stay in the hospital. His recovery has progressed normally and he will probably leave the hospital searlThIS market letter is not and under no circumstances IS to eofsg.uJll. er I T n ration a;iIIQQi, 8 rOQ'ed accuracy or completeness and the (urnishmg thereof IS not. and under no CIrcumstances is to be construed DB, a repreenta- of OPinIOn are subject to change Without notIce Walston & Co, Inc. and OffIcers, DIrectors, Stockholders and ll9l1ll have an mterest m the secUrtties mentioned hereIn. ThIS market letter is intended and presented merely ns 11 general, news ang not as a complete analySIS Addlttonal mformatlOn With respect to any securItIes referred to herem ..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 14, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 14, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - October 14, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc – – – – Members New YOTk Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILE COpy CHdCAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER October 14, 1960 Probably the best wayto',irritate the average investor is, when asked whether the bear market has come to an end, to blandly inquire What bear market Strangely enough, there are always a few astute investors who can make just such an answer, for, as this letter has repeatedly stated, the best protection against possible weakness in the general market is proper security selection. Along these lines, it may be of interest to repeat and bring up to date the tabu lation originally made by this letter more than two years ago. It divides the market into the five major Pl1ases which have existed from August 1956 to the present. (1) The de- cline in the Dow''Jones Industrial average from 33 to 453.07 in 1957, (2) The rise to 523.11 in July 1957, (3) The decline to 416.15 in October 1957, (4) The rise to 683.90 in August 1959, and (5) the dip to an intra-day low of 565.49 on September 29, 1960. For each of these phases the percentage change in the Dow-Jones Industrial average is listed together with the percentage rise or fall of the three best acting in- dustry groups as measured by Standard & Poor's Industry averages. For the two ad- vancing phases, the three worst acting groups are also tabulated. Table 1 Aug.1956 – Feb.1957 D.J.Ind.Aver. – 130/0 Aircraft Mfg. 50/0 Agric. Mach. 10/0 Mach.,Gen'l 10/0 Tab Ie 3 July 1957 – Oct. 1957 D.J.Ind.Aver. – 200/0 Cigarettes 70/0 Dept. Stores 4/0 Food Cos. – 40/0 Table 5 Aug. 1959 – Sept. 29,1960 D.J.Ind.Aver. – 170/0 Soft Drinks 19/0 Office Equip. 160/0 160/0 Table 2 Feb. 1957 – July 1957 D.J .Ind.Aver. 150/0 Table 4 Oct. – 1957 D.J Ind.Aver. Ts'4!iil .Bus. & O. Equip. E1ec.Equip. 7' n \).\Y Air Transport Cigarettes ' 100/0 Oil vVell Equip. 50/0 The above ta give rise to some interesting assumptions. Let us assume that Investor A had en absolutely correct in predicting the course of the Dow-Jones average since August 1956. He bought at the absolute bottom and, in addition, sold short at the absolute top on everyone of the major moves. Unfortunately,however, he was so busy guessing the averages he did not have time to try to pick the right stocks and was unlucky enough to divide his investment among the three worst acting groups in the bull markets and the three best acting groups in the bear markets. Despite the fact that he called every market turn correctly, his capital would have suffered a 90/0 loss during the period. Investor B, on the other hand, forgot about the market and concentrated only on buying the groups he thought would act best. He was long of stocks during the entire period. Despite the fact that the average on September 29th was only forty points higher than on the day he started, his capital has shown 2120/0 'appreciation in four years. It is obvious that the two above instances represent extremes which are unattain able. They nevertheless point up the fact that a good deal of energy is wasted in predict- ' ing the course of the averages which could more profitably be devoted to selecting attractive stock commitments. In the type of market we foresee for the next few years, it can be expected that this will continue to be the case. 00w-Jones Ind. 596.48 Dow-Jones Rails 127.62 ANTHONYW.TABELL I'ALSTON & CO.INC. This market letter is not, and under no Cllcumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to ;cU or 1\ sohcltabon to buy any securities referred to herem The Information contamed berem is not /nlnranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof 15 not. and under no cIrcumstances 18 to be construed as, n l'!.prescnta hon by Walston & Co. Inc. All expresSions of opinion are subJect to change without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchnse, sell and may have an interest In the secUrities mentioned herem ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general. informal eommentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analysIs AdditIonal mfOrmatlOn with resPl!'Ct to any securltles referred to hereIn wI!1 be …..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - October 21, 1960
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———————,——–. Walston &Co. …;.. .;…. Inc. – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO . ' LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILE COPY CI-UCAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER Riverside, Conn. October 21, 1960 I arrived home from the hospital late last week and expect to spend another two or three weeks at home after my recent operation. With the limited amount of work I have been able to do, it has not been possible for me to follow individual stocks to any great extent, but I have been checking the price movement of the averages over the past sever weeks. My conclusions are somewhat as follows. The top formed in the Dow-Jones Industrial averages at around the 685 level of July 1959 and January 1960 indicated the triple possibility of 600, 578 and 550. This pattern was outlined earlier in the year.-The firstcobjective held three times, but was finally penetrated last month. The market has declined to about midway between the two lower objectives at the September low of 565.49. There is an outside possibility that the rally to 663.64 in June may have broadened the top. If this proves to be the case, the downsid potential is 500. I consider this rather doubtful and would be more inclined to go along with a low somewhere around 550, with possibly a very temporary low somewhat below this figure during a selling climax. In terms of the Standard & Poor 425-Stock Industrial average, the comparable July 1959-January 1960 top indicates a decline to 55 1/2 – 52. The recent low was 55.52.It also must be borne in mind that the areas around the triple top formed in both averages during 1956 a.nd 1957 should furnish strong support. On the Dow-Jones Industrials,these three tops are between 524 and 523, so it would be expected that support should be met around the 530-510 area. On the Standard & Poor's Industrials,tops are around the 53-52 level, so here again support should be met at 53-50. All of this implies that if the 550- level in the Dow-Jones Industrials does not hold, there dip to some where around the 530-515 level and comparable levels 0 e & Poor's. Another approach would be to use the two clm the last fifteen years as yardsticks for a possible decline in the mar The Dow-Jones Indus- tI'ial ave.-ages f,!'0!!l8. .rtI1)', 1946 a of approximately ,sr a decline of roughly 25/0. During he dard & Poor average declined from a high of around 18 to a low 0 r 1 /('Jq, decline of approximately 22. In the 1957 decline, the 1 20 from 524 to 416, while the Standard & Poor's Ind sm r around 52 1/2 to about 43, or a decline of 17. In the pre t D ones Industrials have declined from 688 to 565, or approximately 0 h t & P's have declined from 64 to 55, or approximately 14. Declines comp ra 1946 and 1957 would bring the D-J Industrials to 550,based on the 1957 decline, 510 based on the 1946 decline. In terms of the S & P Industrials, the equivalent to the decline would bring the Industrial average down to around 50, while an equivalent of the 1957 decline would bring the average down to around 53 1/2. All of this implies that while there is a distinct possibility that the September lows might be broken in both averages, any further weakness would probably be a long term buying opportunity. However, when such a point is reached, the action of individual groups and individual securities will be of prime importance. The recent action of the gold stocks brings a certain amount of near-term uncer- tainty into the technical pattern. Issues in this group broke out on the upside of trading ranges in which they have held for ten years. A reaction on Friday brought them back to support levels. Obviously, these are extremely speculative situations based on fear of possible devaluation of the dollar. This, according to info-rmed sources, appears rather remote at the moment. The effect appears to be psychological, but just what form it will take is uncertain. As far as the general market is concerned, it would appear that the result will probably be bearish over the shorter-term and possibly lend an in- flationary background over the longer-term. As far as the gold stocks are concerned, higher prices seem indicated over a period of time. In a nutshell, I still feel that the market will hold in a wide trading area for sev- eral years. The lower boundaries of this range are somewhere between 550 and 500 on the Dow-Jones, and 55 to 50 on the Standard & Poor's Industrials. Beli'eve a dip below 550, if it occurs, would be largely temporary. On further weakness, the tech- nical pattern suggests the purchase of selected issues. . lnd no 'tt c cumstances is to be construed as, an offer to IHiNec'I!N\!jlefrefcrred to herem 'the informatIon nW illJlAo aqqracy or completeness and the fU'I'mstllng ill to 1xl 8.\, a. of opinion are subject to change Without notice. Walston & Co, Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Fmployces thereof purchase sell and may have an interest in the secuntles mentIoned herein TillS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analysts Addittonallnformation vnth respeet to any securItIes referred to herem will be . . WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - October 21, 1960
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———— ,/ Walston &Co.– Inc, \ Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILE CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Riverside, Conn. October 21, 1960 I,arri;ved horne from the, hospi!a11ate last week and expect'to spend another two or three at home aftftr my recent operation. With the limited amount of work I have been able to do, it has not been possible for me to follow individual stocks, to any great extent, but I have been checking the price movement of the averages over tq.e past sever weeks. My conclusions are somewhat ,as follows. , The tqp formed in the Dow-Jones Industrial aver-ages at a'round the 685 level of July 195'9 and 1960 indicated the triple possibility of 600, 578 and 550. This pattern wa,s earlier in ,the year. The first obj held thr.ee,times, but was finally penetrated last month. The market has declined to about midway between the two lower objectives at the September low of 565.49. There is an outside possibility that the rally to 663.64 in J.une may have broadened the top. If this proves to be the case, the downsid potential is 500. I consider this rather doubtful and would be more inclined to go along with a low somewhere around 550, with possibly a very temporary low somewhat below ') this figure during a selling climax. terms of the Standard & Poor 425-Stock Industrial average, the comparable July 1959-January 1960 top indicates a decline to 55 1/2 – 52. The recent low was 55.52.It also must be borne in mind that the areas around the triple top formed in both averages during 1956 and 1957 should furnish strong support. On the Dow-Jones Industrials, these three tops are between 524 and 523, so it would be expected that support should be met around the 530-510 area. On the Standard & Poor's Industrials, tops are around the 53-52 level, so here again support should be met at 53-50. All of this implies that if the 550- level in the Dow-Jones Industrials does not hold, there temporary dip to some where around the 530-515 level and comparable levels 0 e & Poor's. Another approach wO,uld be to use the' two clin the last fifteen years as yardsticks for a possible decline in the mar Dow-Jones Indus- .triill d,eclired from decline of roughly 25. During of he dard & Poor average deciined from a high of around 18 to a low 0 1 decline of approximately 220/0. In the 1957 decline, the 20 from 524 to 416, while the Standard & Poor's Ind rdhl around 52 1/2 to about 43, or a.decline of 17. In the pre t D ones Industrials have declined from 688 to 565, or approximately 0 h t & P's have declined from 64 to 55, or approximately 14. Declines comp 1946 and 1957 would bring the D-J Industrials to 550,based on the 11157 decline, 510 based on the 1946 decline. In terms of the S & P Industrials, the equivalent to the 1957 decline would bring the Industrial average dqwn to around 50, while an equivalent of the 1957 decline would bring the average down to around 53 1/2. All of this implies that while there is a distinct possibility that the September lows might be broken in both averages, any further weakness would probably be a long term buying opportunity. However, when such a point is reached, the action of individual groups and individual securities will be of prime importance. . The recent action of the gold stocks brings a certain aIJlount of near-term uncer- tainty into the technical pattern. Issues in this group broke out oll the upside of trading ranges in which they have held for ten years. A reaction on Friday b'rought them back to support levels. Obviously, these are extremely speculative situations based on fear . of possible devaluation of the dollar. This, according to informed sources, appears rather remote at the momt;lnt. The effect appears to be psychological, but just what form it will take is uncertain. As far as the general market'is concerned, it would appear that the result will probably be bearish over the shorter-term'and possibiy lend an in- flationary background over the 10nger-term;As far as the gold stocks are concerned, higher prices seem indicated over a period of, time .In a nutshell, I still feel that the market will'hold,in,a,wid,e tracJing area for eral years. The lower boundaries of this range are somewhere between 550 alld on the Dow-Jones, and 55 to 50 on the Standard & Poor's Industrials. a dip below 550, if it occurs, would be largely temporary. On further weakness, the tech- nical pattern suggests the purchase of selected issues. ,ltnd d 'h cumstances IS to be construed is, an offer to to herein. The informatIOn tinned-be . JII2)c K\QlT'WtCCtt or completeness and the furnJshmg thetVMikbwIi) 6s to be construed WI, a representa of opinion are subJect to change wlthout notice Walston & Co. Inc, and Offleers, Dlreetorn, Stockholders and Employees thereof sell and may have an mterest In the securities mentioned herein. This market letter 18 intended and presented merely as a general, mformsl on day to day market news any not as a complete analysis. Addltional informatIon With respect to any securities referred to herein . ., —– — — – — —–.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 28, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 28, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - October 28, 1960
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– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —— Walston &Co. lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-\ICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS Riverside , ConnecHCllt TABEll'S MARKET lEnER October 28, 1960 At Tuesday's 5f 564.23, the Dow-Jones Industrial average just about equalled the September low of 56.(.'49. The subsequent rally carried to a high of 583.80 on Thursday,and retraced 550/0 of the 36-point decline from the October high of 600.03. The Industrial average has now formed a double bottom at the September and Octo- b er lows. However, the potential base formed in this area is still relatively small and does not indicate much more than a possible rally back to about the 600 level where there is considerable overhead supply. The refore, it would appear that a broadening of the base is essential before a determined effort can be made to push through the heavy overhead supply at 600 and above In the process of forming the base, the Industrial aver– age mayor may not reach new low territory. As outlined in last week's letter, the down- side potential is somewhere around the 550 level, with a possible temporary downside penetration of this level during a selling climax. The Rail pattern is very similar to that of the Industrials. The rails also have formed a double bottom at the September low of 122.58, and at this week's low of 122.92. Here again the base is not broad enough to indicate much more than the October high of 128.55, and further broadening of the base pattern is probably necessary. While the general market will continue to back and fill in a trading area, there are a great many groups that have already formed substantial bases over a period of time, and it is here that the best technical action will probably occur for both the short and intermediate term. Issues in the following groups are suggested for purchase during periods of market weakness. Yv'ould not follow strength at this juncture. The Aircraft group is outstanding. Among the are Martin Co. (52), North American Aviation (41), and Northrop (40). e e is already part of our recommended list and also suggest purchasW,.Jle 1 tw ntioned issues. The Airlines appear to be in the process of base is may require some further time. United Airlines (31) ssues and..is–being-added- – to the recommended list. The Electronics en e ply, and while some of these issues are approaching their downs e t e time appears needed to build up new patterns. Among the su e Microwave (32) and Varian Associates (41). Finance stocks . d provement in relative strength, and Seaboard Finance (22), is t as addition to the list. A Food issue that appears behind the market is Gerbe Pr s (56), purchase of which is recommended. The recent act of the Gold group indicates that, at least from a psychological point of view, these lssues might work higher. They have reacted from recent highs and I am adding Dome Mines (25) to the recommended list. The Land Holding companies are also showing improving technical patterns. Kern County Land (49) and Louisiana Land & Exploration (50), seem attractive and the latter is being added to our recom- mendations. The Meat Packing group has been one of my past favorites and I continue to feel that the industry is attractive. Wilson (40), is already part of our list. Suggest the ad- dition of Swift & Co. (44). The Moving Picture group is showing good technical action and I suggest Columbia Pictures (22) and Twentieth Century-Fox (37) as speCUlations. The Natural Gas group has been under accumulation for a long period of time. Panhandle Eastern Pipe (48) is one of the most interesting issues in an attractive gro,-!p. The action of the oil stocks is also encouraging. Royal Dutch (33) is part of our recom- mended list. Suggest Richfield Oil (84) as an addition. McCall (30) is suggested as a representative in the Publishing group. and Freeport (25) is recommended in the Sul- phur group — a group which has already suffered a drastic decline and seems to be headed for a price reversal. The addition of the following miscellaneous issues is also recommendedAnderson Clayton (37) in the Cotton Products group, and Thompson-Ramo- Wooldridge (58) 10 the electronics-aircraft field. To take care of these new additions to the list, I suggest profit-taking in Decca Records (35), originally recommended at 18, and taking tax losses in National Distillers T2or;–SChenley (20) and West Virginia Pulp & Paper (32). ptseJlW..e…tll to buy any securities referred to herein The Informa.tIon ikMlr'lsrtdtVffimntWt! ad under no circumstances IS to be eonstrued as, Ii representa- .,….Jlo'\,by Walston & expressions of opimon are subJect to change without notice n & ep…. an fflcers, Directors. Stockholders and tltreM' and maY have an mterest m the securltJes mentIoned here t leW 1 resented merely as a general, . !I1arket news – notasa complete analy;lS WALSIoTn DWlNth &C IDLC secUrities referred to herem be IV' 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - October 31, 1960
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October 31, 1960 RECOMMENDED LIST OF STOCKS SELLillG ABOVE 20.00 A SHARE. Current S & P Price Rating American Viscose Anderson .Clayton 36 1/2 36 3/4 .' Bestwall Gypsum 38 Cluett Peabody 55 1/4 Coca Cola Columbia Pictures 63 3/4 21 7/S Daystrom 28 7/8 Diamond National Dome Mines 323/4 25 1/8 Elec. Storage Battery 46 1/2 Fansteel Metallurg. Freeport Sulphur 47 1/4 24 7/8 Georgia Pac. Plywood 4S 1/2 Gerber Products 56 Great Northern Paper 41 3/4 Great Western Sugar 295/S Johns Manville 51 3/8 Louisiana Land Explor. 50 1/2 Magnavox Martin Co. McCall Corp. Microwave No.Amer.Aviation 405/8 52 1/2 29 7/8 33 l/S 41 1/2 Northrop Corp. Panhandle East. Pipe Richfield Oil 40 1/8 47 7/8 84 Royal Dutch Seaboard Finance 323/4 22 1/4 Singer Mfg. Swift & Co. Thompson-Ramo Twentieth-Cent. Fox United Airlines 543/4 44 1/2 57 3/4 36 3/4 30 3/4 U.S Foil Varian Associates 31 1/4 40 3/4 Westinghouse E1ec. 467/S Wilson & Co. 4') 1/4 Winn-Dixie 52 1/2 B B B A-' B B B B B B A B A B B A A B B AA A B B A B B B B B A New additions to list. Indicated Dividend 2.00 2.00 30/0 stk. 2.50 2.40 50/0 stk. 1. 20 1. 60 .70 2.00 1. 00 1. 20 1. 00 1.40 1.00 1.60 2.00 1. 80 1. 00 1. 60 . 60 0/0 Yield 5.5 5.4 4.5 3.8 4. 2 4.9 2. S 4.3 2. 1 4. S 2. 1 2.5 2.4 5.4 3.9 3.6 2.5 3. 1 2.0 2.00 1. 60 1.80 3.50 1. 00 1. 00 2.60 1. 85 1.40 1.60 .50 .30 4.S 4.0 3.8 4.2 3. 1 4.5 4.8 4.2 2.4 4.4 1. 6 1. 0 1. 20 1. 60 1.32 2.6 4.0 2.5 Comment Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 70 -SO Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-froId Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 55 Hold Hold for 63 -68 Edmund W. Tabell Walston & Co. Inc. ,;

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 04, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc. —– Members New York Stock Exchan,qe NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS fABELL'S MARKET LETTER Riverside, Connecticut November 4, 1960 In the past three Presidential elections this letter has attemptedto forecast the winner and the stock market reaction to the result. Probably more through good luck than political acumen, our forecasts have been fairly good. In the Truman-Dewey con- test in 1948, our opinion was that, while all the polls seemed to favor a Dewey victory, the result was far from certain, and we advised taking short-term trading profits as the market had seemingly discounted Deweyl s election and could be expected to sell off sharply in the event of a Truman victory. It did not take too much ability to predict the 1956 election.result.– Eisenhower was indicated we are proud that we called the turn in the 1952 election when we predicted that Eisenhower would be elected by a landslide greater than any since 1936, despite the fact that the poll forecast a very close election. The 1960 result looks to us like a victory for Kennedy. Not only do all the polls point in that direction, but if Kennedy holds all the states in which he is even, or has a slight advantage, his victory could be of landslide proportions, surpassed only by the two Eisenhower and the first two Roosevelt elections. It is true that the fact that so many states are so close, coupled with the large undecided vote, makes it possible that Nixon will pull an upset, much as Truman did in 1948. This, however, must be regard- ed as rather unlikely. In my opinion, while the election outcome may have some short-term reper- cussions in the stock market, over the longer term the result will have no great effect whether Kennedy or Nixon is elected. Other influences and forces over the next four years will be of far greater importance than the result For a real long- term prediction, J. personally feel that no matter which c di ,ected on Tuesday, he will fail to be re-elected in 1964. ….–1 For a long time this letter has held the tha re in the final stages of the Eull market in!.949. It gener.al market averages- can have another surge upward long trading area with the market tj' v 's c eted. The sequel will be a confines of, roughly, 500 and 750 for several years before t In the final stages of a bull market, lower-price f m better than the general market. This letter published p g tion of low-priced stocks on several occasions in the past. It wa ese issues be bought as a package in order to provide the necessa iv fication in a speculative list of this nature. The list be- low of stocks selling er 20.00 a share, is slightly changed from our list of August 12th. The n recommendations are marked with an asterisk. Recent 1959-60 Price Range Recent 1959-60 Price Range Allied Paper 105/8 17 1/4-83/4 Kaiser Industries 83/4 20 1/8-8 1/4 Avco 137/8 175/8-'1.0 1/2 Lear 161/2 23 1/2-9 1/8 'Campbell Chiboug. 57/8 103/4-49/16 McCrory Corp. 13 193/4-12 1/2 Chic. ,Mil. ,St. Paul 15 1/4 333/8-13 1/4 National Can 91/4'145/8-8 'Commercial Solvents 19 25 1/2-12 5/8 oNorthwest Airlines 153/4 463/8-133/ 17 1/8 29-157/8 Pacific Petroleum 10 1/4 191/8-8 Foote Mineral 19 455/8-18 Rayonier 16 1/8 303/8-155/8 Fruehauf Trailer 18 3/4 30 3/4-17 3/8 li;;Rohr 15 – 243/4-'12 '5/8 Getty Oil 14 1/4 28 3/8-12 1/4 Servel 12 1/8 17 3/8-9 1/4 Intern'l Packers 15 3/4 245/8-12 3/4 Sun Chemical 135/8 18 1/4-11 3/8 Ve have removed several issues from our previous list. As a result, the following S\\itch operations are advised. Switch Chemway, Curtis Publishing, Hotel Corp, Publicker Ind. , and United Industrial into Campbell Chibougamau, Kaiser Industries or National an. Pacific Petroleum replaces Home Oil and Fedders Corp. ,and Oliver Corporation (now Cletrac) should be switched into Commercial Solvents, Foote Mineral or Sun Chemi- cal. EDMUND W. TABELL ow-Jones Ind. 596.07 ',ALSTON & CO. INC. ow-Jones Rails 128.22 ThIB market letter is not, and under dreumstances is to be construed ss, an offer to sell or a sohcitatlOn to buy any securities referred to herem The information contamed herein 18 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furn1shmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances lS to be construci as, a. representa- tion by Walston & Co Inc All expresSIOns of opinIOn are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors. Stockholders and Employees thereof, sell and may have an Interest In the securities mentIOned herein This market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a informal commentary on day to day market news not 88 a complete analysis AddItIOnal mformatlOn With respect to any secUrittes referred to herem be JOt ……. –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 11, 1960
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Walston &Co. ..;.,;..;;;..;,.,;; 1nc. Members New York Stock Exchange FILE COPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November II, 1960 The stock market interpreted Mr. Kennedy's extremely narrow victory mar- gin as a favorable development and, after some slight uncertainty early Wednesday, the Dow-JOI.es Industrials advanced to an intra-day high of 614.09 on Thursday. Profit- taking on Friday's Armistice Day session brought about a mild correction. Volume indications were favorable with transactions moving above the four-million-share level on Thursday, and dropping to 2,730,000 on Friday's sell-off. Despite the recent happenings in the political, foreign and economic fields, the technical pattern of the market shows no great change from the analysis presented in our letter of October 21st. The downside potential' of the August f959January 1960- double top at 685 in the Dow-Jones Industrials indicated a decline to 578-550, after the 600 level was broken in September. A low f 565.49 was reached in September and tested in October at 564.23. It now appears indicated that the Industrial average reached its low for the intermediate term at the 565 double bottom. Any near-term correction would probably meet support around the 580 level. How much higher can the market move over the near term There is obviously a considerable amount of overhead supply between 600 and 645, an area in which the Dow-Jones Industrial average held from late January to late September, with the exception of the June upsurge. The present advance has pushed into the lower part of this overhead resistance to reach 614.09. The base formed at the 565 level does not indi- cate much higher at this time, and normal technical action would indicate the need of some consolidation and a broadening of the base in the 600-580 area. The Rail average which reached an intra-day high of 130.03 on Friday, has overhead supply at 132- 136. It is interesting to.note that the long downtrend mid-1959 top of 174.41, 'rtow stands at about 136. hl'be do average from the more recent January, 1960 top !lJverage from the the Industrial ow approximately 638 Regardless of the action of the 1 mar/.eM the ook for individual issues and groups-r.emains highly selective . icWa 'of-the-va-rious-groups can be broken down into several h st classification would include the groups that have acted the past year or so, regardle ket and have moved higher over in the averages. This classification would include, princ' Drink, Tobacco ' it' chInes, Food, Movies, Publishing, Soft 'ese groups still indicate an uptrend, they have reached a price Ie commitments. t er makeo them particularly attractive for new Of more im late importance are the groups that have, in the main, been in a downward or si ewise price movement for almost a year or more and have sufficiently attractive technical patterns to make them worthwhile candidates for price appreciation during 1961. Included in this second classification are Aircrafts, Fertilizers, Finance, Gold, Meat Packers, Natural Gas and Pipelines, Oils and Ship- building. In the oil group, the domestic oils appear to have the better technical pattern, The third classification are groups that have been in a downtrend for a long period and appear to have reached downside objectives, but have not yet formed base patterns. This basing out period may consume some further time. The groups that appear to be bottoming out include Airlines, Automobiles, Building Materials, Cement,Copper,Drugs, Machinery and Machine Tools, F'aper and Sulphur. The risk factor seems low in these groups and they should be watched closely for the start of an uptrend. The groups that are still weak and show no indication of a change in trend are included in the fourth classification Aluminum, Chemicals, Electrical Equipment, Electronics, Rubber, Steel and Railroads. Other groups have patterns that are difficult to interpret, but the compilation above covers most of the more important groups. From a tax-loss point of yiew, it would appear advisable to switch from the fourth group into the second group for intermediate-term upside potentials,and into the third group for longer-term holding. Ind. – 608.61 DonrTOnes BaUIi 1a9.46 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO TNr ThiS market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed AS, an ofter to sell or a soliCitatIon to buy any securities referred to herein The Illformntton , contained herein IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or cop1pieteness and the furnishmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances 18 to be qODstrued as, n tlon by Wnlston &. Co, Inc. All expresSIOns of OPInIon are subJect to change Without notice, Walston & Co, Inc and Officers, Directors, StockhoJders a d E I ees thereof purchase sell and may ha.ve an mterest in the securities mentioned herem, ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a genebi . wJ 301on day to day market news antJ not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatlon with respect to any securitIes refeTred to herem …

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 18, 1960
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r Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELP IA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 18, 1960 As was to be expected on technicaCgrounds, the Dow-Jones Industrials met supply at the lower part of the broad 600-645 area in which the average has held for the major part of 1960. The intra-day high was reached on the Thursda after Election Day at 614. C9 The- overhead supply,coupled with the continued tax-loss sellip.g, may result in further ir regularity until mid-December, but I would expect the 600-58 level to furnish effective support. The low of the past week was 598.66. As for the longer-term outlook, my opinion remains same as expressed in the letter of September 16th before the Industrial j s.. triple bottom'.' 19W aroUl'l the 600 level and declined to 565. This s'that the stock market, as measured by the Industrial average, is going to hold in a wide trading range for several years. The upper limit of this range will probably be about 700, with possible upside ex- ',. cursions to the 750 level. The downside potential appears to be 550 with temporary dips to around the 525 level. If the average is to hold mainly between the 700 and 550 level for the foreseeable future, it would appear that the upper third of this range should be used to lighten holdings in undesirable situations and that the lower third of this range, betweer 600 and 550, should be used as an accumulation area for situE ions with attractive funda- mental and technical backgrounds. New lows in the average right bring in some selling, but, in my opinion, it would be 'weak selling' If the market pattern envisioned above proves to be cot-rect, the longer-term in- vestor cannot rely solely on the upward momentum of the gen ral market, as was the caSE from 1949 to 1956-1957. Ability to select the right issues wii continue to be of increasing importance. The stock below is a case in point. Recent activity in AMERICAN VISCOSE (39) quisition by Monsanto Chemical of Viscose's 50/0 Monsanto will pay 3,450,000 shares of its own 1. i the proposed acCorporation. change for their in- will be worth more than 31 following assets 1. A 't cose share in 19 ' 2. A 50/0 e t in -r. polypropylene. addition, !viscose will still hold the 1 ,Company, which p' oduced 30 cents per Visn Corporation, one of Ameri a's major producers of 3. A profita e and modern cellophane operation with an earning power in the neighborhood of 75 – 1.00 per share. 4. A gigantic rayon plant with huge sales volume and /look value, but questionable earning power. All of the above assets combined will give Viscose a bpok value of over 75 per share, even taking the Ketchikan and Aisun investments at tl e conservative figures stated on the balance sheet. Book value, of course, is of little importance to the i vestor, unless it can be realized over the foreseeable future. There is an excellent hance that such realization is largely possible for American Viscose. First of all, t e rayon end cellophane operations rplroduce a huge cash flow. (Depreciation exceeded capital expenditures by 10 . million in 195 Second, the capital structure of the subsidhries assures a generous cash flow from debt repayment. Third, of course, the Mons mto investment will be highly liquid. During the past year. Viscose has been utilizing cash 'ow to buy in its own stock, and, at the end of October had acquired 418,800 shares. This process, of course, tends to increase book value even more, and there is no reason wh it should not continue. At current levels, there seems to be only moderate risk invo ved in owning the stock and a good deal of upside potential over the long ,term. Dow-Jones Ind. 603.62 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. I is to be construed as, an offer to sell or 1\ soliCitation to bu any securiti('9 referred to herem The mformation cl)nuuncd herein IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof not, and under cIrcumstances to be as, a representa- tIOn by Walston & Co. Inc. All expressions of opintOn are subJect to change WIthout notIce Walston &, Inc. and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders nnd Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may ha.. e an interest In the secuntH'g mentIOned herein ThiS market let er IS mtended and presented merely as a Informal commentary on day to day market ncWB anI not as a complete analYSIS. Additional tnformattOn With ;';pect to any SI!CUTItleB referred to herem wdl be \Yl! . I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 25, 1960
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Walston &Co. flL Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER November 25, 1960 While the various stock market averages and breafh-Of-the-market indices remain in downtrends from the mid-1959 and January 1960 hi s, quite a few individual stocks are beginning to break out of downtrend channels tha have been in effect for a yea or two, and a great many more individual issues are near s ch upside breakouts. This trend, if it continues, will have to show up shortly in the ge eral market indicators. Tec – nical patterns still suggest some further irregularity aroun the 600-580 level of the Dow Jones Industrials in December, followed by an attempt to re ch the upper part of the 600- 645 supply area in the early part of the new year. SWIFT & COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 46 1.85 4. 0 For a nu ber of years this letter has tried to pOint out some of the important change which have been aking place in the hitherto Long-Term Debt Common Stock 90,478,000 5,980,204 shs. Sales, 1960-E 2,350,000,000 Earn.PerSh.1960-E 3.50 Sales, 1,961-E 2,500,000,000 Earn. Pe'r Sh. 1961-E 5.00 highly cyclical m at packing industry. We.have noted, for,examp e, the tendency on the part of major packers to close obsolete and inefficient facHitie and replace them by decentralized, mod rn operations. We have also noted the trend to ard diversification into nonmeat lines and th increasing emphasis on pre Mkt.Range 1960-1955 – 52 1/8-263/4 processed and pr -packaged meat items with their attendant margins and great er susceptibility to brand identification. As a participati n ing industry, we were fortunate enough some three years ago to i son o. at a price of 15 1/4. The stock subsequently reached a high of 4 in 9 ,and has held through- out most of this year in a trading range not b igure. Meanwhile, the com- mon stock of Swift & Co. has not, as low as 26 3/4. e d' 55 high of 52 1/8 and has sold Despite this rather compared with Wilson and some of the other packing stocks, other meat camp ie h s to a greater efficie cy that has characterized in Swift. Of necessit the improvement in earn- ings has been slo 1 e g itself due to the compan 's gigantic size (sales of around 2 1/2 billion a as the next two largest comp titors combined) and diffi- culties caused by a st in 1958 when earnings reached a 2 -year low of 1.70 per share. Nonetheless, ts primary competitive position, plus a record of dividends stretch- ing, except for one year, back to 1888, gives Swift an invest ent grade status not shared by its competitors. In 1961-1962, improved livestock-mark t conditions should increase earnings sharply, and the steps taken over the past few year to increase operating effi- ciency should become more apparent. Earnings for the fiscal year ended October 1960 ar estimated at 3.50 per com- mon share. These results were held down by a low hog supp which tended to hold prices at fairly high levels throughout 1960. Beginning in 1961,this cycle should,normally,re- verse itself and some time during the next fiscal year heavy hog supplies should begin to depress prices. In addition, according to most analysts, a long-term trend toward heavy cattle supplies is now beginning. Consequently,in 1961 1962, livestock prices may be sharply depressed. This normally has the effect of impro ng packers' margins quite radically. Under such conditions Swift could raise sales to 1/2 billions from the 2.35 billion estimated for 1960 and increase profit margins after axes from .8 to 1.2. This would result in earnings of better than 5.00 per comm n share. Earnings of this magnitude, in turn, could cause the further liberalization of e 1.60 dividend which, in 1960, was supplemented by a 25 extra. From a technical paint of view, ability to reach 48 ould indicate 58-73. There is also a very long-term objective of 95. Strong support exi ts just below current levels at 45-40. The stock is recommended for purchase in invest ent accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 606.47 EDMUND W. TAB ELL mhnl1ukctictter is not, and under no clreumstnnces IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or n soliCitation to b y Any securities r.et'crred to herein The information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof IS not, and under 0 Circumstances l.S to be construed as, a reprcsenta dti n b W Iston & Co Inc All er;preBBlOno of OPlnJon are subJect to change without notice Waloton & 0, Inc, and Olilccro, DIrectors, Stockholders an atbereof sell and may have an Interest In the oecUl'ltles mentIoned herem. ThiS market I ter IS Intended and presentr a informal cornmentiu-y on day to day market news anq. not as a complete analysis Additional InformatIOn Wit respect to any Bccul'Ibes re err to …. 301 furnished upon request. . ——–

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