Viewing Month: September 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 02, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 02, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 02, 1960
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Walston &CO. Inc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH.JCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 2, 1960 In five trading days, the Dow-Jones Industrials retraced slightly more than half the 45-point advance from the early August low. From the August 22nd high of 645.30, the Industrials declined to 620.93 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, when the average de- clined 8.06 points on the day, volume was 2,890,000 shares as contrasted with 3,460,00 shares on Thursday when the averages only rose slightly but when there were 522 advan- ces as against 419 declines. Despite the unfavorable business background and the tense international situation, breadth-of-the-market action continues to show above average action. The 45-point ad- in- fifteen trading days was a bit too rapid and some needed. The market has only showed slight rallying power in terms of the averages since Wednes day' slow, but there were more advances than declines on both Wednesday and Thursday when volume was over 3 million shares. My breadth-of-the-market index has moved above the March and May highs and is close to breaking a downtrend line extending from the March, 1959 high through August, 1959 high. This is the first time in a year that this line has even been approached. – – Business prospects usually appear clearer after Labor Day. Certainly the pros- pects of an immediate pickup do not appear bright at the moment. The technical pattern of the market suggests that an improvement is anticipated. This is indicated by the im- proving breadth-of-the-market action and the upward emergence of groups that have been in long downtrends. The automobile group, for example, shows signs of reversing its long downtrend, as do the airlines, oils, meat packers, and some textiles. The air- crafts have made a decided change for the better. The an interest- ing technical picture. U. S. Steel (80), has held in an are 0 e bY' 86 and 75 for six months. An upside penetration would indicate a eo i round 105. A downside penetration would indicate a decline to e On relative strength, steelshave been in a downtrend since 59. do end has not yet been re- t t er-s – technical-patterns similar to U S. Steel. In discussing the ne r rW 0 market, sight must not be lost of the long term pattern. Th Ieill' for over ayear that the market is prob- ably in the fifth and . ance that started in 1949. The first phase was the 1949-1952 a phase was the 1952-1953 consolidation. The third phase was the 195 ad e and the fourth phase was the 1956-1957 decline; The fifth and final upwar R was started in October, 1957, and is almost three years old. The final l–.lase usu requires a long time span and in the final stages can be quite volatile with low-priced speculative issues being turned over in large volume. My original timing for this top was sometime in the 1960-1962 period. There are some in- dications that the market is approaching this volatile stage, but it probably has some- what longer to go. The base formed at the triple bottom around 597 suggests a possible 700-720 objective. After that I envision a broad trading area between 750-700 and 550- 500 for several years. Of course, all groups are not in the same stage of progress. Many oilS, for example, reached the fifth phase in mid-1957, and are now in a five-phase down move- ment. The first phase was the decline to the late 1957 lows. The second phase was the advance to late 1958, and the third or downward phase has probably been The fourth phase should be a rally wave and will be followed by a final downward phase. In the adjusting and consolidating period to come, the oils might be one of the first groups to reach its low. On the other hand, there are other groups and stocks that are still in the early stages of the pattern. Woolworth, for example, reached its low in 1957 and is probably still in the first phase. The meat packing stocks started their advance at about the same time and have probably completed the first two phases and are about ready to start the third phase. Issues that are in early phases will be the safer stocks to own during the next several years. Dow-Jones Ind. – 625.22 Dow-Jones Rails – 136.15 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 09, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 09, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 09, 1960
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Walston &Co. Inc FILE Member8 New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 9, 1960 Last week's market action was hardly encouraging. The averages dropped off sharply in the first two days of the week, and, with declines heavily outnumbering advances, the weakness extended throughout most of the list. The Dow-Jones Industrials reached a low of 607.39 on Thursday before holding and finally staging a moderate rally on the final day of the abbreviated week. Volume, both on the decline and the subsequent rebound, was unimpressive. However, in order to be discouraged by this week's action, it would be necessary for the technician entirely to disregard all of the positive technical signs given by the market during the past month. This we refuse to do. This week's action will certainly result in some deterioration of breadth and volume figures. The deterioration will hardly be sufficient to reverse the positive trends of the past few weeks. Final breadth figures for last week are, of course, not available at this' writing. However, it is worth reviewing just where volume and breadth indices will probably stand when the final figures are in. As mentioned above, the averages declined this week to 607, very close to the thrice-tested low around the 600 level. NevertheleS's, the weekly breadth index will undoubtedly be above, or not much lower than, the level it reached in FebruaryMarch when the average was around 635 and in June when the average reached a peak over 660. 0 Volume figures are equally impressive. s s, upside volume has been 75.3 million shares and downside volume ee 8 illion. Thus, on On- – side-figu-res. volume. , the longer term .. st abve lor, side volume is slightly above upside volume. Twenty-five-week . ,w , are somewhat less susceptible to near-term market is worthy of note that this week's downside total of som 184 . i Ii well below the level of over 200 million shares which pre ai u hrough July. Upside volume of about 178 million shares is . e 150 -170 million range in which it held through most of 1960. Wit oi' to details of the interpretation of the above figures, suffice it to say that t are extremely positive. There is, of course, no law saying that the market cannot continue to drift lower in the face of favorable breadth indications. Were there such a law, market analysis would be an exact science which, most emphatically, it is not. On the basis of technical work, however, it must be considered as probable that the market will hold around the already-tested 600 level. Any projection based on probability, however, must be considered in the light of risk involved if the projection turns out to be wrong. Here again we return to the long-term projection so often voiced by this letter — the indication that the market should hold roughly within the 550-750 range over the next three to five years. This would mean that any sharp decline below 600 would bring the market to the 600-550 range which has been repeatedly mentioned as a favorable area for new stock purchases. Should the 600 level hold, the previously mentioned upside objective of 700 -720 would still be valid. Thus, in the most simple terms, with the Dow-Jones Industrials at around 615, there is a potential gain of better than a hundred points on the upside nieo.sured against some sixty points risk on the downside'. Any further weakness enhances these odds. It therefore becomes apparent that investment odds at this moment strongly favor the purchase of stocks. Any further weakness would probably present one of the best buying opportunities for equities in quite some time. Dow-Jones Ind. – 614.12 EDMUND VV. TAB ELL ,lenstances is to be construed as, an to sell or a to herem. The Information .ctto'6' not guaranteed ns to accuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not, and under no Clrcumstanees 18 to be construed 88, n representn& Co, Inc. All expressions of opmion are subJect to change Wlthout notice '\Yalston & Co, Inc, and Officers. DIrectors. Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and maY haye an mterest in the securities mentioned herem ThlS D!a.rket.letter IS mtended and presented merely.as a general, W'J imformal commentary on day to dny market news anq not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herem l 3b . 0

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 16, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 16, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 16, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc fiLE COlli' Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TAULL'S MARKET LETTER September 16, 1960, Apparently, the most important question confronting the financial world at the moment is whether or not the triple bottom formed by the Dow-Jones Industrial aver age at 596.20 in March, 596.96 in May and 597.30 in July will hold and,if it -does not hold, how much selling will come into the market on the downside penetration. Seeing that Thursday's intra-day low was 598.26, and Friday's low was 598.22, the Industrial average is, in football parlance, holding on the one-yard line. Perhaps a few technical observations might be in order at this point. (1) In my opinion, whether or not the triple bottom holds is relatively unim- portant outside of a temporary psychological effect. Regardless of theopiriion expressed in a book that is on the best seller list, buying or selling on upside or downside penetra- tions on stop orders can be an expensive procedure, particularly when there are a , large number of individuals doing the same thing. (2) My technical opinion continuously stressed for over a year is that the stock market is in the fifth and final phase of an advance that started in 1949, and is no longer undervalued. Whether the tops have been reached is still problematical. Final market phases are usually quite dynamic and are accompanied by excessive volume turnover in low-priced speculative shares. (3) This letter feels that the stock market, as measured by the Industrial average, is going to hold in a wide trading range for several years. The upper limit of this range will probably be about 700, with possible upside excursions to the 750 level. The downside potential appears to be 550 with temporary dips to around the 525'level. If the average is to hold mainly between the 700 and 550 it would appear that the upper third of this range should u e future, lrghten holdings in undesirable situations and that the lower third of e e we 00 and 550, should be used as an accumulation area for situations with a active amental and technical the 0 but, in mY….2pinion, . (4) As ew sM;' nuary, the technical top formed at the August, 1959-January 1 had three downside potentials. The first was h1\h'li 578 and 550. I, r on four occasions. The other two were 600-550 area as a broad buying range. (5) If arch lows hold, a very sizable potential base will have been formed. he Ide potentials will not be ascertainable until the pattern is but t otential would be well above 700. A downside penetration would, of course, destroy the pattern and necessitate a new base in the 600-550 area. (6) Breadth-of-the-market action has been slowly improving. The fact that this is happening while the market is going down is not at all unusual. For example, breadth action started to deteriorate late in 1956, and the averages continued higher until mid-1957. Breadth started to improve in January, 1958, but the market did not start its advance until four months later. The breadth action started to deteriorate in April, 1959, despite the fact that the advance continued until late July. The of breadth to improve in October-December, 1959 indicated the decline that started at the turn of the year. Improving action in the breadth index does not mean that new lows may not be reached by the averages. It simply indicates that the buying-appears to be slowly turning better than the selling, particularly on periods of price weakness. (7) The next advancing phase when it occurs will be selective. For the in- vestment holder, safest purchases today can be found in the issues that have not adv.anced sharply, but have a good fundamental and technical background. Issues that fall into this category include American Viscose (35 1/2), Cluett Peabody (56 3/4), Daystrom (35 3/8), Diamond National (36) Electric Storage Battery (51 3/4), Johns Manville (53 l/!) , Singer Mfg. (55 3/4)and Swift & Co. ('42 IHl. For the speculator, suggest a package purchase of the low-priced issues in the August 12th letter. EDMUND v7. TAB ELL Dow-Jones Ind. – 602.18 VvALSTON & CO.INC. Doc; TonES Rails 192.42 This market letter 15 not, and under no CIrcumstances is to be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy RlY securities referred to herem The mformation contained herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnIshIng thereof IS not. and under no Circumstances is to be construed as. a representa tion by Walston & Co., Inc All expresSions of opinion are Bubjeet to change Wlthout nottce. Walston & Co., Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may ha\e an mterest in the secuntles informal commentary on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analysIs herem ThlS AdditIonal mformatlOn letter IS mtended With respeet to any and presented me securlttes referred retolyhae.Breamgve.n;i1c1rtblle. furnlShed upon request. . . . , \\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 23, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 23, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 23, 1960
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Walston Co.&- Inc. FILE MemberR New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGElES PHILADElPHIA CI-\ICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 23,1960 The triple bottom formed by the Dow-Jones Industrial average in March, May and July at 597 was penetrated last week and decisively so. The Industrials were off fifteen points on Monday and the decline continued to a Tuesday intra-day low of 581. 91. The list turned around midway through the Tuesday session and reached a high of 597.85 on Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, most of the gains had been given up with volum extremely light on the latter two days due to the Jewish holidays. The most commonly-asked question this week, of course, was What can be expected now that the market has penetrated the 600 level There is, .. on the part of some investors, an unfortunate tendency to regard the breaking of the 600 level with a mythical significance akin to the crossing of the Rubicon. That the decline to new lows is importan from a technical point of view is conceded. This importance, however, can be somewhat exaggerated. It will be recalled that the downside count indicated by the technical pattern at the August 1959 and January 1960 tops had three downside implications. The first of thes was around 600, which was finally penetrated this week. The other two were 578 and 550. At this week's intra-day low, the 578 level was almost reached. It now appears that the broad 550 -600 level is a buying area in which the averages will form a new base for a later advance. This does not rule out further weakness as a possibility. Indeed, the mid-week rally was unimpressive enough to make one suspect that the market has not yet found a' strong support level. Therefore, it is quite possible that the lower limit of the 550-600 range will be reached, and even that level may be This would imply the market's becoming oversold from h r period of time. mOtechnical point of view. Such an event, of course, would have a i or subsequent rally and, significantly, it is an occurrence that did not pIa a March, May or June lows. – As this letter has pointed out, the t has, until' recently, been im proving. Obviously, this week' s eterioration, although on a long term basis the indices eli!f;illy rable.1t must be remembered that breadth of the market is a Ie i . usually begins to turn long before the market reaches top 0 or ample, breadth action began deteriorating in March, 1959, d i e e averages made a new high in August, 1959 and e-q1.!alled it in Janu , 9 ior to the 1958-59 advance, breadth began improving in December 1957, s e fact that the market held around its lows and did not start to advance until mi ril of 1958. It is/therefore,unfair to say that the positive breadth action has been invalidated by this week's decline to new low levels. If the thesis that a buying area exists around current levels is correct, the in- vestor should be seeking stocks with a minimum of downside risk and attractive upside potential as vehicles for new buying. Many such stocks are,of course,contained in our recommended list and there are a number of other stocks and groups which appear at- tractive. The outlook for Aircrafts remains strongly bullish with both Martin (49 1/2) and North American Aviation (40 1/2) close to support. Airlines may have to do more work around current levels/ but appear close to their lows with American Airlines (191/8), attractive. Most Building Materials stocks are reaching their downside poten- tials and Bestwall Gypsum (36 1/2) and Johns Manville (521/2) appear interesting. Foods continue to show above average action and Food Chains appear to be slowly basing out. The technical position on the Meat Packing stocks appears to be improving also. The Office Equipment group is mixed, but International Business Machines (511) ap- pears attractive as does Underwood Corp. (46 3/8) on a speculative basis. The Natural Gas stocks also appear attractive from a technical point of view. Tobaccos continue in an uptrend and Philip Morris (71) and Reynolds (80) seem suitable for further moderate price appreciation. ED.'MUNDv'. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. I am leaving today to enter the hospital for an abdominal operation and will probably be there and recuperating at home for the next three to four weeks. This letter will be

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 30, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 30, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 30, 1960
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Walston &Co. Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILE COPY CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 30, 1960 The stock market decline continued throughout last week with the Dow-Jones In- dustrials reaching a low of 565.49 on Thursday. A late Thursday rebound continued on the final trading day and, at Friday's high, the average had recovered some seventeen points to 582.47. ! At the week's low, the Dow had fallen well over one hundred points, from the Januar high. Prospects at present can be viewed from two standpoints, that of level and that of p!obaole trend. From a level point of view, the market had this week, in terms of most averages, reached or come close to-reaching, the most pessimiStic downside implica- tions of the August-January top. It had reached a point very close to the lower limit of the trading range envisaged by this letter as containing the market over the next two to four years. It had, moreover, reached a point where many stocks were selling on a pure yield basis and at a relatively modest relationship to earnings. It would thus appea that the only stimulus to further decline in a large segment of the list could come from a fairly severe recession which would place dividends in a good deal more jeopardy than that in which they now seem to be. So far, economic indicators do not seem to point to a business decline of this magnitude. Thus, it was pointed out in this letter two weeks ago that investment odds would favor the purchase of selected equities on any further decline. Obviously, the sharp drop of the past two weeks has made these odds more favorable. From a trend point of view, the situation is less clear. It is belaboring the ob- vious to state that the trend of the general list since the first of the year has been down- ward. The obvious question at this point is what of the B8 immiment reversa of that trend. Here technical studies strike a few r t rst time this year, the market had, at this week's lows, reached a position on most tecnnica-riiiaicaturs. A rebouna TrOm-SUCh;!' -. ion is normally ' 7 indication available to the tainly the start of such a Friday's action was cer- d i 8JP ued next week, a rally of at least temporary proportions e Anothe r optim' t c . t week's oversold condition was reached with- out any increase I r re to new highs. On both a 10-week and 25-week moving total basis, sld ume at week's end was well below the levels that had been maintained most of 1960. Upside volume, on the other hand, was considerably above ow pOints reached in the earlier part of the year. These figures evidence an essential strength which has hardly been apparent in the action of the averages. One other factor should be noted. This is the all-important characteristic of selectivity which has characterized the action of the equity market for almost five years and has been just as evident in the recent decline as on many previous occa- sions. It is obvious to anyone who has scrutinized the entire list closely that many individual stocks and industry groups have strongly resisted the downside pressure of the past few weeks and that som e have even advanced. Despite the fact that the Dow is a hundred points below its January high, a goodly number of issues are at this moment selling above their January levels. – This type of action confirms the thesis so often mentioned in this letter that individual stock selection is far more important than attempts to pinpoint highs and lows in the averages. Thus, there appears to be very little reason to alter the thesis voiced by this letter over the past few weeks. This thesis is that the current weakness provides an opportunity for the purchase of carefully selected common stocks on a long term basis. ANTHON W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Ind. – 580.14 Dow-Jones Rails – 125.42 This anl;ttcr IS not, and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, offer to Bell or a sohcitntlOn to buY any r.efeved to herein The mformatlOn contnined herein Is not guarantccd as to accuracy or completcness and the furnishmg thcreof 1S not, Ilnd under no circumstances IS to be construed as, R reprcscnt.a tlon by Walston & Co, Inc All expressIOns of opinIOn arc subJect to change notice Walston & Co, Ipc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholdcrs and E ployccs thereof purchase sell and may have lin mterest m the securities mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, wMIcommenb..ry on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analysis Additional information 'Ynth respcct to any SecUl'ltles referred to herem —

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