Viewing Month: April 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 01, 1960
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Walston &- Co. '';';';;;';;Inc Members Ne, York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 1, 1960 There have been many forecasts concerning the shape of the economy m the 1960's. One cynic has said that, if we are to believe what the stock market is telling us about the next decade, it will be one in which everybody spends their working life pushmg buttons on computers, quitting at 3 o'clock, going boating, taking pictures, and bowling in the evening. While thIS mayor may not be the trend of the economy, it is certainly a fairly accurate description of how the stock market has been acting in recent months. While the electronics, super-growth, and leisure tim issues – the perfoThfan'ce'Oftherest offlie' many old- line favorites, has been rather desultory. Recent study of relative strength charts shows that the following groups are all acting worse than the market as a whole Aircraft manufacturing, air transport, aluminum, auto, chemical, copper, drug, industrial machinery, international oil, paper, and steel. This type of action is of a special sigmficance when it is realized that, included in the above categories, are most of the classic growth stocks which have tended to outperform the market ever since 1949 and which constitute the backbone of most investment portfolios, both in- dividual and mstitutional. If the shift in investor preference which has become marked in recent months continues, most investment portfolios WIll have to be drastically revised if below average results are not to be expected. Beside the electronics and leisure time companies, another group of stocks has also tended to act better than the classic favorites in recent months. This includes a number of more solidly based, if less spectacular ai3 grocery chains, variety chains, soft drinks, meat packers, tin fo ,OWcos nd utilIties. An attempt to demonstrate the possIble reason s pr ence was made in our letter of February 19, 1960 which compare Pi. erica acco and Union Carbide. In th,S letter it was pointed out t e' 1954-1959, while AinerfcanTobacco's 0 -u – – – .fas- Union Carbide' fl, its had risen only half as much. The ft y liP e favorite fifty ,therefore, may well indicate that pric – a a companies have already be- are seeking sec it w' I od growth prospects, which are available on a cheaper basis I e ti to nings. ThIS lette h ,recently, tried to point up securities in thIS category. Two weeks ago we gested the attractiveness of the grocery chains. Leading equities in this group are available at 16-17 times earmngs, despite the fact that earnings of many companies have increased at ratios from 10 to 20 annually over the past ten years and this growth can be expected to continue. Ferro Corporation, which has been on our recommended 11st for some time, is available at only 8-9 times estimated 1960 earnines, yet not only is the company's basic business, porcelain fnt, growing as the architectural shift to curtain wall construction continues, but it IS also the largest supplier of molded fiberglass to the boating industry. Other stocks could also be mentioned. Soft drink companies are still selling at ratios which seemingly ignore the fast expanding teen-age market of the next decade; yari !ty chail1. be mherent in store modernizatlOn programs and expanding foreign markets; utilities have done little marketwise recently although the growth trend many companies have shown is expected to continue. In short, the 1960's may well be a decade in which growth will turn up in hitherto unexpected places. The successful investor will be the one who foresees these areas of growth and who purchases stocks in a position to participate therein at bargain basement prices. EDMUND W. TAB ELL Dow-Jones Ind. 615.98 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 143.43 AIN't. dIllb .' This market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be Rb, an offer to sell or a to buy any 'lecurltLes referred to herem The mformatlOn hereHI. is not y;uarnnte(';d as to aeeUl'acy or completeness and the urrnshlny; thereof IS not, and under no cIrcumstances s to be construed as, a representa- tJ(n by Walston & Co, Inc All c.prCSS(fnl of opInlOn arc subJect to change \\oithout notIce Walston & Get. Inc, nnd Offl('Crs, Director'!. Swckholr3ers and Empnyec'l thereof purl!hase sell nor mny have an mtere!t in the Re.urities mentIoned hereIn. ThIS m.o.rket letter lS mtended and presented met ely as n general, mformal on day to d.lY marcet news not as a complete- anabsls AddJbonal lllformatton re5pect to any referred to herem furm'lhed upon reque.t ….. ….– NLi.,.acro,,,. A, .ii,, ,J -1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 08, 1960
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– FILE Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Membel's New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 8, 196C The market advanced for the first four days of the week and, at present writing, is only fractionally lower today. At Thursday's intra-day high of 634.08, the Dow-Jones Industrial average was close to the late February high of 636.30. Ability to better this high would be a constructive development. The Rail average, at Thursday's intra-day high of 146.06, was quite a bit below the comparable February high of 152.66, but the rails are close to breaking a downtrend line that has been in effect since the January high of 161.00. Ability to push above this downtrend line would also be a favorable technical development. However, only a relatively small base pattern has been form'ed so In the Industrials, the upside potential appea.;s to be 65(f to 660 and'the-Rails would meet heavy overhead supply in the 150-160 range. It would appear probable that a broadening of the base somewhere along the line is needed. It is entirely possible that broadening could take place at a level conSiderably above the lows of 603.34 and 596.20 in the Industrial average reached in February and March. The action of my breadth-of-the-market Index is much more important, in my opinion, than the action of the averages. This Index showed very poor technical action late last year and made this letter extremely cautious at the January high. This Index has not yet reversed its downtrend, but is very close to doing so. For the first time since April, 1959, this Index is moving ahead with the market. It reached its high a year ago and turned down five months before the market reached its high in August. Previous to that, the Index turned upward in January 958, some four months before the broad advance started in the general market. At the moment, the Index is at the same point where it was at the late February high in the s mI'average. Ability of the breadth-of-the-market Index to better its last high oul ' i6ate a broadening interest in the market and a probable trend it intermediate term studies of breadth-of-the-marke, ch v te term. Other e and advances- decline ratios, are showing signs of pr ' a' ,although no definite signals have been given. On the I tota or-examllle, downside'volume did not equal the volume in the r k, the number of declining stocks was smaller – which would the inability of upside olum 0 volume started to in r 'n The unfavorable factor was ah&t,- indicating no buying interest. Upside ear the level reached in December. Ability to move above t The recen nother constructive development. kn m INTERNATIONAL PACKERS,LTD .. on our recom- mended list, has occa' ed a good deal of comment. The apparent reason for this weakness would se to be the result of the recent Argentine election in which the incumbent party of President Frondizi was roundly trounced. The actual effect of this development on International is rather difficult to assess. While it is true that the Frondizi government lost ground in the election, it still retains a parliamentary majority. Thus, in the two-year interval until the next election, it will be free to pursue its current policy of encouraging foreign capital investment which, in the eyes of many observers, has largely restored the health of the country's economy. At the end of this two-year pe riod, the government may well have gained back a good deal of the popular support lost in the last election. Meanwhile, the stock has not lost a bit of the speculative merit which caused our original recommendation. The Argentine cattle population, allowed to decline under the Peron regime, continues to increase and, in some two years, the rate of slaughterings should jump sharply above present levels. Thus, the leveraged earnings of IPK could show a substantial increase. Considering the fact that it is now selling at some five times last year's earnings of 3.11, the impact on the stock of such a rise could be substantial. Obviously, some speculative risk attaches to the stock due to the political situation, but for those who can afford this risk; the stock is rerecommended for purchase at current levels f 16 1/2. Dow-Jones Ind. 628.10 Dow-Jones Rails 144.96 EDMUND W. TABELL — WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'5 market letter IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed us, an offer to sell or a solicitatIOn to) buy nny securities referred to herem The Informntion contmned herem IS not gUIllnntced as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshntg thereof IS not. and under no Circumstances is to be construed us. a representa- tion by Walston & (J(). Inc. All expressions of OPIniOn arc subJect to chanp;e Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, nnd OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders and Emplo)-Ci!s thereof, purchase, sell nnd may ha\c nn mterest In the securities mentioned herem This market letter IS mtended and pr;esented merely as n general, mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatIon With respect to any securIties referred to herem Will be furnished upon r C Q u e s t . . ..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 14, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 14, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 14, 1960
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Walstloncn. &- Co. FILE COpy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-IICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – April 14, 196U Last week's market action failed to change, one way or the other, the analysis outlined in last week's letter. With volume and trading interest largely dulled by holiday and tax considerations, the general list was essentially trendless for the first three days of the week and staged a minor rally on Thursday. Breadth-of-the-market indicators failed to show any of the possible improvements looked for in last week's letter. Assuming that such improvement will, ultimately, take place, the longer that it is deferred, the better it is for the.market. As has been noted, thebases formed so. far in the industrials and rails indicate only minor upward moves, and further backing and filling, broadening these bases, would be essentially bullish. Meanwhile, it is probably best for the investor to maintain the reserves continually suggested by this letter and to restrict commitments to issues which show real promise of outperforming the market. One such issue is discussed below. WINN-DIXIE STORES, INC. Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock 49 1.20 2.4 16,000,000 6,335,467 shs. Winn-Dixie has acted well since originally recommended by this letter at 45 a month ago. A major upside breakout was subsequently posted, giving an upside objective of 63-70. The high reabhed a week ago was 52 3/4. A subsequent re- Sales-1960 – E Sales-1959 730,000,000 666,370,000 Earn. Per Share 1960-E Earn. Per Share 1959 — 2.50 2.22 action has half of this move and r levels should work M of– r of time. tec ally and fundamentally – e themost interesting in .- . Price Range -1960-59 523/4 – W Y chain group. Its growth record e past decade has been truly unusual. Note Sales and earnings fig s 'arnings in the fiscal year to end June, 1960 fiscal in are expected to better 2.50 per share vs. 2.22 in the previous fiscal year. This figure represents t tlia 30 increase in earnings as against the 1949-51 aver- age. This growth ra e . ore than three times that of the average of the ten leading grocery chains, ancO-avre than twice that of the next best company in the group. , – There have been two major reasons for Winn-Dixie's success. One is the strong growth trend of the area served. The company's stores are concentrated largely along the south Atlantic coast with heaviest concentration in Florida and the Carolinas. Florida is, of course, growing better than twice as fast as the country as a whole. However, the secular growth trend has been abetted by extremely astute management. During the eleven years to June 1959, the company opened 366 new stores,acquired 174 and closed 371 older outlets. During that period, average sales per store were more than tripled. This figure is one of the most important. indicators of supermarket efficiency as larger units are more profitable to operate than smaller ones. The sales-per-store figure for Winn-Dixie is currently the second highest of the ten major companies. This, plus excellent integration and cost control, gave Winn-Dixie a 2.10/0 post-tax profit margin last year, approximately 50 better than the average margin for the ten industry leaders. Despite the fact that Winn-Dixie has perhaps thA best operating record and growth potential of any of the major food chains, only a modest premium is being paid for the stock. Current prices mark it at some 19 times earnings,slightly above the average for the industry of fourteen. This spread does not appear excessive when the record is considered. The monthly dividend of 10, which could be increased later on during the year,affords a yield of 2.4. rT1\Tn W 'TD'T T o 15 not and under no cireumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to referred to herem The InformatIon 5 or completeness and the furnlshmg thei&rf1s'-r/bt', to be construed 85, a repreeenta- ui \ttfWeJillDCrlbdons (If opimon are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and an interest In the secUrtties mentioned herein ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, to news ang not as a complete analysis Addltlontl1 mformation With respect to any seeurlttes referred to herem,W L – – – — —- – –. – — , – — — — -…….

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 22, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc —.;… .. .t..y… .;;, Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CKiCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 22, 1960 This week's decline has brought the Dow-Jones Industrials back to the middle of the broad trading area in which it has held since February. It is still problematical whether the consolidation shelf of almost three months duration will eventually turn out to be a base for a further extension of the rise from the March lows, or whether it is only a hesitation in the downward trend that has been in effect since the first of the year. If the March low of 596.20 holds, this week's weakness broadens the potential base. As mentioned in previous letters, the downside count of the double top formed by the highs I.. lf August, 1959 and January, 1960at.around the 680 level indicated,from a technical viewpoint, three possible downside obj ectives, depending on which type graph was used. One objective was 604,a second was 578,and the third and most pessimistic was 550. The first possible downside objective was about reached at the,February and March lows. Our breadth-of-the-market index,which turned quite unfavorable in December, has failed to reverse its trend as yet. I, therefore, continue to advocate the cautious investment policy suggested at that time. I would not aggressively enlarge portfolios until one of two things occurred. (1) A decline to the 580-550 level, (2), An improvement in my breadth-of-the-market index. I The above has, necessarily, referred to the market as a whole. For the past three years, however, we have had an increasing number of instances where many stocks tended to act well even in declining markets. Therefore, it is necessary, whatever the outlook for the average, to continually examine what industrial groups are showing the best relative strength. Following are relative strength ratings of major industrial groups, as of last week. The cOl;n meaning 1. In a definite uptrend relative to the market. 2. In a definite uptrend, -but -some q\Y 1\ gn'S15f' the following W .- 3. Neutral, with some indications 4. In a definite downtrend relative 5. In a definite downtrend, taking V' 6. Ne1ural, with s st g. t 'Lf!ie . signs of possible strength are jor uptrend to -6- – – .. 1 I Dept. Stores Drugs Elec. Equip. Elec. Util. Electronics Grocery Chains Office Equip. Packaged Foods Soft Drinks Tobacco Variety Chains Roofing & Wallboard Canned Foods Heating & Plumbing Aircraft Mfg. Air Transport Auto Mfg. Chemicals Copper Oll-Intern'l Oil Producing Paper Railroads Steel Tire & Rubber Aluminum Cement Machinery Oil – Domestic A few notes on the above classification are m order. A glance at the list of groups acting relatively worse than the market will reveal practically all the indus- trial classifications that have for years formed the backbone of the institutional invest- ment portfolio. The groups acting better than the market can be divided into two categories, so-called defenSive issues and the super-growth issues such as electronics. Dow-Jones Ind. 616.32 Dow-Jones Rails 142.38 EDMUND WALSTON & CO.IN . ThIS market letter is not nnd under no circumstances 13 to be construed as, nn offer to sell or n sohcitatlOn to buy any securities referred to herein Tho mformation contnmed herem is not as to accuracy or completeness and the fUrnIShing thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances 18 to be construed as, khreltesentad t' b Walston & Co Inc All expre'!sions of OPInion are subJect to change Without nollce. Walston & Co., Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stoc 0 ers an thereof purchase sell and may ha.ve an mtercst in the Bccurilles mentioned herein Thl!, market lelter IS Intended and presented merelyhas n on dny to day mnrket news an9 not as a complete analYSIS Addlhonal mformation With respect to nny referred to erem JoI furntshed upon rt'quest . . — – —

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