Viewing Year: 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 29, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 29, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - July 29, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OfFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 29, 1960 Last week was a hectic one for the stock market. The Vow-Jones Industrial average declined some eight pOints on Monday, reaching a low of 597.30. This was the third leg of a triple bottom in the 596-597 area which had also been reached in late March and in early May. A rally took place on Tuesday, but was largely erased by a decline on the following day. Then the Federal Reserve re- duced margin requirements and Thursday and Friday saw an advance on improving volume with the average gaining 6.86 points for the week and up 19.40 pOints from l – — – — \ / l o n.d.. – a y' ! s lo t-i s w. tli e -basi-c the-sis of the market techn… iC-..i.an that th…. -e. . .m- . a r k e t tell-s its–o–'- wn – ;; Therefore, the Federal Reserve's action in regard to margin rates should, theoretically, have nothing more than a temporary effect. If the market has developed enough inner vitality to hold above the 596 triple bottom, it would have done so in any case. If such vitality has not developed, this area will be breached ard the lowering of margin rates has only postponed the inevitable. We are,therefore, faced with two possibilities. The first is that the triple bottom will hold. This, as every market analyst is aware, would be a very strong signal. It would broaden considerably the base around the 600 area which, at the March-May lows, indicated 660-680, an objective that was reached at the June high of 663.64. en t,he other hand, if the March-May-July lows were broken, it would then be possible to foresee a decline to 578 or 550, the second and third objectives of the August 1959-January 1960 top. Based on the continued poor breadth-of-the-market action up to now, this possibility cannot be disregarded. This prediction, however, must be taken in the range outlook which, as this letter has ,repeatedly stated, t 's remaining in the 700-550 area for the next several years with ps rallies 50 pOints above and below this range. If this is going to be t&Jz\tse, cline to around 580-550 — -would pl'esent —–rathe-r equities in general. fMr\\\, \\ ifn-h;ioc nt-buyin-g -opportunity fo1'- — — V. Cne indication that t'Wht proaching lies in a study of recent advance-decline figures. Th e e recent important bottoms in the one this week year. Ten and bottoms have ten rl , , and March of this year and September of last 0' t s of advances and declines taken at each of these th eadily increasing number of advances and a steadily decreasing number d e s . In other words, j'clst as the market, in early 1959 showed up momentum as it continued to advance, this market is showing declining downside momentum as it continues to fall. This factor should not be taken to indicate that the decline is over. It merely suggests that we are close to the ultimate bottom. If a further decline does take place, the obvious question is what stocks or groups of stocks will present the best purchase opportunities. A number of important changes in relative strength have taken place in the past few weeks. One, the improvement in relative action of the aircraft group, has been referred to in previous letters. Other groups, however, are showing fairly important upturns in relative strength. This in- cludes the coppers, cements, finance, fertilizer, and possibly the steels and oils,although none of these have as yet become strong enough to give positive buying indications. \IIeanwhile, groups such as building materials, variety chains, drugs, foods, tobaccos and utilities, continue to act better than the market. Purchases on any weakness should be concentrated on the groups mentioned above, plus any other groups which show improving market action in the next few weeks. Other relative strength patterns, of course, are unfavorable. The electrical equipment issues, for example, have recently turned quite negative. Other groups which have weakened relative strength and could turn unfavorable very easily include electronics,department stores, and office equipment issues. The blue chip groups such as the aluminums, autos, chemicals, machineries, papers and rubbers, continue to act worse than the market and no real improvement has been seen. e T. -' ,,,,, '7Q EDMUND W. TABELL n In mformal 0111)41 der cuweiances IS to be construed as. an offer to sell or a to herem The mformatIon S I All . or completeness and the f' 6 b cct to furnishIng thereof IS not. and under change Without notice Walston & no circumstances IS to be constrl1ed Co, Inc. and OffIcers, DIrectors, ss.teo.e 0 en; an Bell securities mentioned herem. ThiS market letter IS Intended and presenLf has a genfi!; WNon to day market news ancj not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal mformatlon With respect to any BeCUrItIes re err to erem 301 .. .. … . ……. ' .. … . …… . ….

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 05, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 05, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - August 05, 1960
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I -;;-.-;;—— – – .- Walston &reo. Inc lE COPV Members New YQrk Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER August 5, 1960 The stock market underwent another week of wide price movements. After last Friday's sharp advance to an intra-day high of 618.35, the market continued to advance moderately on Monday to reach a high of 622.37. From then until the last hour on Thurs day, the average drifted downward to 600.28, with very small volume. In the final hour of trading, the market sharply reversed its trend and rcgained the day's losses. The advance continued on Friday when the intra-day high was 617.88. Ability to better Monday's high of 622.37 would, from a technical viewpoint, indicate an uptrend of at least intermediate term', importance. In days ()f secu,ity analysis, the somewhat simpler. than it is atoday. All that was- necessary wa's to discover 'what company had earned in the past and apply an appropriate multiplier to those earnings. One could then, with a minimum of time and effort, discover whether a stock was cheap or dear. Just precisely what this multiplier, or price earnings ratio, should be was some- what of a subjective matter, and depended on a number of outside factors, However, most authorities felt that a range between a P /E ratio of 8 and one of 18 constituted the permissible limits for common stock investment. The analyst who follows the classical theory can only scratch his head in bewil- derment at today's market. P /E ratios of 50-75 have become not uncommon and ratios in the 20's and 30's have become almost the rule for companies which have displayed any growth whatsoever. In order to ascertain value for growth stocks, numerous formula have been developed to replace the old PiE ratio. some of them rivaling the theory of relativity in complexity. Despite all these new theories, however, enough respect for the classical relationship of price to earnings still the suspicion that the current market is too high. to harbor \0J Only time will tell whether the classicists n ro tock theorists are more correct in their appraisal of security values.lt'jAl inte ng to note, however, dar of of stocks wliich are just plain a numbe!.. f 'e . ssicalsiindaras — . – – A few examples come i peka & Santa Fe (23) currently yields 6.30/0 on the indicated 0 1.t5('1rloicated earnings of 2.50 for 1960 give a price/earnings 0 nii' ' n f the largest and most efficient operating rail- road properties' t 0 th three exceptions, has paid dividends continuousl since 1900. Non-r I lOS greater than fixed charges and preferred dividends, which exempts the c rom cyclical fluctuations inherent in more leveraged rail- road stocks. 3tandard Oil of New Jersey (41) currently affords the investor a yield of 5 1/2 on the indicated 2.25 dividend, and it is rather interesting to note that it has not been available on such a generous yield basis since 1954. Much has been heard about the problems of the oil industry.;..nd they are real indeed. Nonetheless,Jersey's cash earn- ings have recovered sharply from the 4.89 of 1958 to 5.35 in 1959,and are expected to show a further moderate recovery this year. Earnings after non-cash charges should reach 3.10. No one claims dividend stability for Kennecott Copper Corporation (75), but the current 5.00 rate is the lowest the company has offered since 1949 when copper was selling at 19 per pound. contrasted WIth the 32 rate enjoyed today. 1960 earnings could reach 7.00 a share before depletion. It is interesting to note that the stock has sold above its present price in every year since 1950. This letter is not suggesting that the three stocks mentioned above are going to have substantial upside moves at any time in the near future. Technical factors, as a matter of fact, indicate just the opposite. However. they all three are just above their technical downside potentials Atchison at 22, Standard Oil of New Jersey at 39 and Kennecott at 70. This, plus the fundamental factors mentioned above, would seem to indicate that there is little downside risk involved in owning them at current prices. In other words. amid all the talk of greatly overpriced equities. it is comfort- ing to know that a large body of solid value stili exists in today's market. Dow-Jones Ind. 614.29 EDMUND W. TAB ELL lRaiJrla IS to be construed as, nn offer to sell or n ,eHGl herein The mformahon C'ontmned herem IS not gllftranteed as t6 nccursty or compietene5s and the furnishmg thereof IS not, andunder no c.lrc.umstances IS to be construed ns, a representa- .dtW'lj). Wll'ktbtl & Co Inc All expreSSlonll of optnlOn are BUhJect to l.hange Without notice Walston & Co . Inc . and Officers, Directors, Stockholderll Bnd sell and may have an mterest m the secUrltws mentioned herein ThiS market letter IS intended and presented merely as B general, Informal on dB; to day market news anq. not as a complete analYSIS. Additional Informatton With respect to any securities referred to herem will be . . . .. .. -.- . f'-'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 12, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 12, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - August 12, 1960
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– FILE COpy Walston &Co. ..;,;..;,;.;;.,;; Inc Members New Yo,.k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH,/CAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 12, 1960 With the assistance of a reduction in the discount rate by the Federal Reserve Board from 3 1/2 to 3, the Dow-Jones Industrial average moved above the post-margi reduction intra-day high of 622.37 to reach a high of630.53 on Friday. As mentioned in last week's letter, this indicates, from a technical viewpoint, that the market is now in an uptrend of at least intermediate term proportions. The potential base formed by the triple bottom in the 600-597 area in March, May and July, has been enlarged to a potential 700-720, or an advance of 12-15. As for the rails, I mentioned that the Dow- Jones Rail average had a downside potential of 137-133. ,Last week's low was slightly c below that projection at 131.85, but the downside objective of 29 on the Standard & Poor's rail index was just about reached at 29.29. The upside potential on the Rail average is difficult to ascertain at the moment. There is overhead supply at the 136-147 level and it is probable that the average will spend quite some time in that area. Breadth-of-the-market has improved considerably. There were more advances than declines every day this week. On Tuesday when the Industrial average closed only 90 higher, there were 599 advances and only 368 declines. The figures on my weekly breadth-of-the-market index are not yet available at this writing, but I believe the index is quite close to the March high. This indicates a broadening out of the market and the probable emergence of new group leaders. Among possible leaders are aircrafts,air- lines, coppers, natural gas, oil and steel. As I have noted in the past, in the final stage of a bull market lower priced issues tend to perform better than the general market. This letter has published a package recommendation of low-priced stocks on was stressed that these issues be bought as a package in diversification in a speculative list of this lists have so far acted just about the same as the , occmons in the past. It d r 0 rGWide the necessary a j r mmendation e up and some down, butif the ull market is not yet d is could .relatively better actlOn than the market. -The 11st bel r 11g ferent than-the 11st of' February 26th as some issues like e graduated out of the below-20- a-share classification and recommended list. I have entcod a re S g 1959 Earnings Indicated Dividend Yield Allied Paper 1.62 – Avco 1B .93 .50 3.1 Chemway 1 B- .4.0 .40 4.0 Curtis Publishing B- .65 .35 3.2 Fedders Corp. 18 B 1.57(1) 1.00 5.5 Getty Oil 15 B .67 (stk) – Home Oil A 10 C – .37 .25 2.5 Hotel Corp. 5C .03 – – Intern'l Packers 13 B- 3.11 .60 4.6 Kaiser Industries 10 B- .61 – – Lear 20 B- .91 .40 2.0 National Can 8 B- .24 (stk) – Northwest Airlines 19 8- 3.68 .80 4.2 Oliver Corp. 20 1.39(2) .60 – 3.0 Pacific Petroleum 11 Publicker Ind. 11 Rayonier 17 RohrAircraft 15 Servel 13 United Industrial 9 None C B None C None – .48 – .61 2.35 1.40 1.26 (2) – .75 (stk) .80 1.00 .20 4.7 6.6 2.2 (1) Year ended August 31,1959 (2) Year ended October 31, 1959 Dow-Jones Ind. 626.18 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON f…. CO. INC. Dow Jones nails 198. 95 . hf t ThiA market letter is not, and under no ….. r.(.ez9 to be construed ns, nn offet to sell or a sohcltntlOn to buy any SecUrities referred to herem. T e In orma lOn contamed herem IS not guaranteed us to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshlrlg thereof lS not. and under no Clrcumstances lS to be construed as, a representa t on by Walston & Co Inc All expressIOns of opInion arc subject to change wIthout notice Walston & Co. Inc, and Offlcers, Dlrectors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, sell and may have an Interest m the secuntles mcntlOned herem ThiS market letter IS Intended and pr.csented merely as a general, mformal commentary on day to day market news amj not as D complete analYSIs Additional mformatlon wIth respect to any securIties referred to herem

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 19, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 19, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - August 19, 1960
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Walston &Co. – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 19, 1960 For the first time in over a year, breadth-of-the-market action has begun to sho some strongly positive indications. Last week's action is typical. The Dow-Jones Industrial average, closing the week at 629.27, was only moderately above the close of a week ago at 626.18, and the average actually declined on Monday and Thursday. Despite the uninspiring perform- ance of the averages, more stocks advanced than declined, on every day this week, and daily advances have now outnumbered declines for twelve consecutive days. It seems safe to predict that weekly advance/ decline figures wi-ll-.show that,-for -the-period just ended, far more stocks moved ahead than retreated. All this has had a marked effect on breadth-of-the-market stUdies. At their week' high of 631. 42, the Dow Industrials were some thirty points below the high of 663.64 reached two months ago. However, a week ago, the breadth index equalled its June high and appears certain to surpass it this week. Although figures are not yet available, the breadth index could even advance sufficiently to equal the March high which would place it in new high territory for the period since the January decline. The daily breadth in- dex has already exceeded the June high. In other words, a study of the price movements of all stocks reveals considerably better action than that exhibited by the market aver- ages — the first time this has occurred in many months. Volume figures corroborate the picture above. On a 25 -week-moving-total basis, upside volume reached a new high for 1960, and downside volume, which made a new low last week, declined further. Ten-week figures, which have been favorable for some time, continued their favorable action. On both a spread between advances and declines continues to narro W basis, the tlfls action is typical of the beginning of an intermediate uptrend. –' As was pointed out last week, the base forrrwffn the -Jones now gives an upside indication of somewhere aro st i2J' become-iQC1 un– –comineaat-thls prospect, e s – -YC– -e this prediction in the of the longer term outlook for the thi etter has stated repeatedly, it is expected that the range of I c market for the next three to five'years If this is to be the cas ,a ju the mid-point of this range. A move abov 700 would place e a K 1 breadth-of-the-m c r quarter of the area. Thus, while favorable eases the probabilities of an intermediate-term up- move, any such mo ove current levels would greatly increase the risk in- volved in owning equi This is a factor which should be kept in mind, especially when, as and if, an sustained rise above current levels occurs. Most shifts in market trends in recent years have been concurrent with a pro- nounced change in leadership, and it seems probable that this will be the case over the next few months. This letter has previously mentioned laggard groups which have cently shown fairly important reversals of relative strength. The aircrafts now appear to be in a positive uptrend and preliminary buying evidences were shown last week by the coppers and oils. Steels and airlines also have shown some upturn in recent weeks, although to a less pronounced degree. Meanwhile, other groups which had previously been market leaders, have deteriorated somewhat in terms of relative action. This includes department stores, electronics, food, office equipment, and soft drinks. Drugs and tobaccos, on the other hand, also market leaders for some time, have con- tinued to act relatively well. Other groups which have shown poor relative strength, such as aluminums, autos, cheInicals, machineries, papers, and rubbers, exhibit little or no improvement. Thus, current indications are that a certain amount of judicious switching of portfolios should now be undertaken to take best advantage of a probable impending. market uptrend. If a sustained rise occurs, strength should probable be used for the acceptance of profits and the partial reduction of equity commitments. Dow-Jones Ind. 629.27 Dow-Jones Rails 139.73 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. A ')ilT. 8rnB This market letter IS not, and under no circumstances 19 to be construed .(lS, an offer to Bell or a soliCitation to buy any secUrities referred to herein The mfor.matlon contained herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereor IS under no cIrcumstances 18 to be construed as, a representa tIon by Walston & Co., Tnc All e'tpresslOns of opimon are subject to change Without notice. walston & Co. Inc., and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest m the SCCUTIUCI mentIOned herein ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herein Will be .. .. . .. .. . .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 26, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 26, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - August 26, 1960
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Walston &-Co. LECO'Y Members New Y01'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK . SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA . CH.lCAGo OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 26, 1960 The Dow-Jones Industrial average reached an intra-day high of 645.30 on Wednes- day for an advance of 45 points in fifteen trading sessions. The pace of the advance has been fairly rapid and some consolidation may be needed. There is some overhead supply at 645-660. However, breadth-of-the-market action continues its decided improvement. While the figures are not available at this writing, my breadth-of-the-market index probably moved above the March high. Volume indications also remain favorable on bot the ten-week and twenty-five-week moving totals. This also is the case on my advance/ decline patterns on the same graphs. The market, subject to minor technical correct- ions, indicates higher levels for at least the intermediate term; DIAMOND NATIONAL CORPORATION Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 35 1/2 1.60 4.5 Long Term Debt 35,268,000 1.50 Cum.Pfd.Stk. 450,000 shs. Common Stock 4,474,294 shs. In 1953, Diamond Match Company was a relatively small lumbering operation selling wholesale and retail lumber, together with matches and woodenware. In the following year, the company embarked on an aggressive program of expansion through Sales, 1960-E 245,000,000 Earnings per Share-1960 (1) 3.10 Mkt.Range 1960-1955 – 44 7/8-25 1/8 merger. Acquisitions have included two small lumber companies, the General Package Corporation, a major producer of paper board and molded pulp egg cartons, the (1) Estimated. Includes equity in unconsolidated subsidiaries. Gardner boardld m 50 e . ypa Company, a paperanufacturer; a tler, producing milk containers and other wax-coated containers, 19 e U.S. Printing & Lithograph.Company., one oLAmerica's -s., — .. These additions produced a ab esults. (1) Diamond National (the name was changed last year) is no egrated packaging operation. (2) Fro 1953 to 1959, sales rose million. (3) In the same period, net in come has f Until now duce any increase' r, 10 flo. 3 million. 0 ny's tremendous increase in size has failed to pro- er common share. In order to expand, Diamond was forced to increase c m ares outstanding from just over one million to 4 1/2 million. ' .us, the i ase in per-share earnings has been negligible. Moreover, profit margins have declined from 6.5/0 after taxes in 1955, to 4.5/0 last year. Now that Diamond National has completed its program of expansion and integra- tion, it appears reasonable to expect that the company can devote its resources to bringing about the improvements in operating efficiency which could be expected to suIt from a fully-integrated operation. Some progress has already been made in this direction. Despite a low rate of residential construction, and resultant sluggish lumber sales, Diamond National's earnings for the six months ended June 1960 were 1. 45, contrasted with in the comparable 1959 period. Post-tax profit margin improved from 4.2 in 1959 to 5.8 in 1960. It is estimated that, for the full year,earnings should be in the neighborhood of 2.85 per common share, in addition to some per share equity in the earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries. The process of improving profit margins has just begun, however. In this regard, the company is fortunate in having the services of a number of able executives brought in from U. S. Printing & Lithograph Co. last year, including the new president of Diamond National, Mr. William H. Walters. It is worthy of note that each 1 improvement in profit margins at the current sales level can result in an increase of about in annual pershare earnings. Sales are not expected to remain static,however. The dynamic consumer packaging field now accounts for more than 60 of sales and the company is able to offer a complete line of packages and labels designed, printed, and produced by Diamond. The lumber business can also be expected to recover from depressed 1960 levels. From a technical point of view, the stock has held in the 26 -41 area since 1956 and an eventual ability to break out of this range on the upside would indicate a possible 65. The stock, whose recently-raised 1.60 dividend provides a 4 5 Jrie1d,is heing a4g8Q tQ QYP

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 02, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 02, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 02, 1960
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Walston &CO. Inc – – – – – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CH.JCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 2, 1960 In five trading days, the Dow-Jones Industrials retraced slightly more than half the 45-point advance from the early August low. From the August 22nd high of 645.30, the Industrials declined to 620.93 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, when the average de- clined 8.06 points on the day, volume was 2,890,000 shares as contrasted with 3,460,00 shares on Thursday when the averages only rose slightly but when there were 522 advan- ces as against 419 declines. Despite the unfavorable business background and the tense international situation, breadth-of-the-market action continues to show above average action. The 45-point ad- in- fifteen trading days was a bit too rapid and some needed. The market has only showed slight rallying power in terms of the averages since Wednes day' slow, but there were more advances than declines on both Wednesday and Thursday when volume was over 3 million shares. My breadth-of-the-market index has moved above the March and May highs and is close to breaking a downtrend line extending from the March, 1959 high through August, 1959 high. This is the first time in a year that this line has even been approached. – – Business prospects usually appear clearer after Labor Day. Certainly the pros- pects of an immediate pickup do not appear bright at the moment. The technical pattern of the market suggests that an improvement is anticipated. This is indicated by the im- proving breadth-of-the-market action and the upward emergence of groups that have been in long downtrends. The automobile group, for example, shows signs of reversing its long downtrend, as do the airlines, oils, meat packers, and some textiles. The air- crafts have made a decided change for the better. The an interest- ing technical picture. U. S. Steel (80), has held in an are 0 e bY' 86 and 75 for six months. An upside penetration would indicate a eo i round 105. A downside penetration would indicate a decline to e On relative strength, steelshave been in a downtrend since 59. do end has not yet been re- t t er-s – technical-patterns similar to U S. Steel. In discussing the ne r rW 0 market, sight must not be lost of the long term pattern. Th Ieill' for over ayear that the market is prob- ably in the fifth and . ance that started in 1949. The first phase was the 1949-1952 a phase was the 1952-1953 consolidation. The third phase was the 195 ad e and the fourth phase was the 1956-1957 decline; The fifth and final upwar R was started in October, 1957, and is almost three years old. The final l–.lase usu requires a long time span and in the final stages can be quite volatile with low-priced speculative issues being turned over in large volume. My original timing for this top was sometime in the 1960-1962 period. There are some in- dications that the market is approaching this volatile stage, but it probably has some- what longer to go. The base formed at the triple bottom around 597 suggests a possible 700-720 objective. After that I envision a broad trading area between 750-700 and 550- 500 for several years. Of course, all groups are not in the same stage of progress. Many oilS, for example, reached the fifth phase in mid-1957, and are now in a five-phase down move- ment. The first phase was the decline to the late 1957 lows. The second phase was the advance to late 1958, and the third or downward phase has probably been The fourth phase should be a rally wave and will be followed by a final downward phase. In the adjusting and consolidating period to come, the oils might be one of the first groups to reach its low. On the other hand, there are other groups and stocks that are still in the early stages of the pattern. Woolworth, for example, reached its low in 1957 and is probably still in the first phase. The meat packing stocks started their advance at about the same time and have probably completed the first two phases and are about ready to start the third phase. Issues that are in early phases will be the safer stocks to own during the next several years. Dow-Jones Ind. – 625.22 Dow-Jones Rails – 136.15 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 09, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 09, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 09, 1960
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Walston &Co. Inc FILE Member8 New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 9, 1960 Last week's market action was hardly encouraging. The averages dropped off sharply in the first two days of the week, and, with declines heavily outnumbering advances, the weakness extended throughout most of the list. The Dow-Jones Industrials reached a low of 607.39 on Thursday before holding and finally staging a moderate rally on the final day of the abbreviated week. Volume, both on the decline and the subsequent rebound, was unimpressive. However, in order to be discouraged by this week's action, it would be necessary for the technician entirely to disregard all of the positive technical signs given by the market during the past month. This we refuse to do. This week's action will certainly result in some deterioration of breadth and volume figures. The deterioration will hardly be sufficient to reverse the positive trends of the past few weeks. Final breadth figures for last week are, of course, not available at this' writing. However, it is worth reviewing just where volume and breadth indices will probably stand when the final figures are in. As mentioned above, the averages declined this week to 607, very close to the thrice-tested low around the 600 level. NevertheleS's, the weekly breadth index will undoubtedly be above, or not much lower than, the level it reached in FebruaryMarch when the average was around 635 and in June when the average reached a peak over 660. 0 Volume figures are equally impressive. s s, upside volume has been 75.3 million shares and downside volume ee 8 illion. Thus, on On- – side-figu-res. volume. , the longer term .. st abve lor, side volume is slightly above upside volume. Twenty-five-week . ,w , are somewhat less susceptible to near-term market is worthy of note that this week's downside total of som 184 . i Ii well below the level of over 200 million shares which pre ai u hrough July. Upside volume of about 178 million shares is . e 150 -170 million range in which it held through most of 1960. Wit oi' to details of the interpretation of the above figures, suffice it to say that t are extremely positive. There is, of course, no law saying that the market cannot continue to drift lower in the face of favorable breadth indications. Were there such a law, market analysis would be an exact science which, most emphatically, it is not. On the basis of technical work, however, it must be considered as probable that the market will hold around the already-tested 600 level. Any projection based on probability, however, must be considered in the light of risk involved if the projection turns out to be wrong. Here again we return to the long-term projection so often voiced by this letter — the indication that the market should hold roughly within the 550-750 range over the next three to five years. This would mean that any sharp decline below 600 would bring the market to the 600-550 range which has been repeatedly mentioned as a favorable area for new stock purchases. Should the 600 level hold, the previously mentioned upside objective of 700 -720 would still be valid. Thus, in the most simple terms, with the Dow-Jones Industrials at around 615, there is a potential gain of better than a hundred points on the upside nieo.sured against some sixty points risk on the downside'. Any further weakness enhances these odds. It therefore becomes apparent that investment odds at this moment strongly favor the purchase of stocks. Any further weakness would probably present one of the best buying opportunities for equities in quite some time. Dow-Jones Ind. – 614.12 EDMUND VV. TAB ELL ,lenstances is to be construed as, an to sell or a to herem. The Information .ctto'6' not guaranteed ns to accuracy or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not, and under no Clrcumstanees 18 to be construed 88, n representn& Co, Inc. All expressions of opmion are subJect to change Wlthout notice '\Yalston & Co, Inc, and Officers. DIrectors. Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and maY haye an mterest in the securities mentioned herem ThlS D!a.rket.letter IS mtended and presented merely.as a general, W'J imformal commentary on day to dny market news anq not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herem l 3b . 0

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 16, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 16, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 16, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc fiLE COlli' Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TAULL'S MARKET LETTER September 16, 1960, Apparently, the most important question confronting the financial world at the moment is whether or not the triple bottom formed by the Dow-Jones Industrial aver age at 596.20 in March, 596.96 in May and 597.30 in July will hold and,if it -does not hold, how much selling will come into the market on the downside penetration. Seeing that Thursday's intra-day low was 598.26, and Friday's low was 598.22, the Industrial average is, in football parlance, holding on the one-yard line. Perhaps a few technical observations might be in order at this point. (1) In my opinion, whether or not the triple bottom holds is relatively unim- portant outside of a temporary psychological effect. Regardless of theopiriion expressed in a book that is on the best seller list, buying or selling on upside or downside penetra- tions on stop orders can be an expensive procedure, particularly when there are a , large number of individuals doing the same thing. (2) My technical opinion continuously stressed for over a year is that the stock market is in the fifth and final phase of an advance that started in 1949, and is no longer undervalued. Whether the tops have been reached is still problematical. Final market phases are usually quite dynamic and are accompanied by excessive volume turnover in low-priced speculative shares. (3) This letter feels that the stock market, as measured by the Industrial average, is going to hold in a wide trading range for several years. The upper limit of this range will probably be about 700, with possible upside excursions to the 750 level. The downside potential appears to be 550 with temporary dips to around the 525'level. If the average is to hold mainly between the 700 and 550 it would appear that the upper third of this range should u e future, lrghten holdings in undesirable situations and that the lower third of e e we 00 and 550, should be used as an accumulation area for situations with a active amental and technical the 0 but, in mY….2pinion, . (4) As ew sM;' nuary, the technical top formed at the August, 1959-January 1 had three downside potentials. The first was h1\h'li 578 and 550. I, r on four occasions. The other two were 600-550 area as a broad buying range. (5) If arch lows hold, a very sizable potential base will have been formed. he Ide potentials will not be ascertainable until the pattern is but t otential would be well above 700. A downside penetration would, of course, destroy the pattern and necessitate a new base in the 600-550 area. (6) Breadth-of-the-market action has been slowly improving. The fact that this is happening while the market is going down is not at all unusual. For example, breadth action started to deteriorate late in 1956, and the averages continued higher until mid-1957. Breadth started to improve in January, 1958, but the market did not start its advance until four months later. The breadth action started to deteriorate in April, 1959, despite the fact that the advance continued until late July. The of breadth to improve in October-December, 1959 indicated the decline that started at the turn of the year. Improving action in the breadth index does not mean that new lows may not be reached by the averages. It simply indicates that the buying-appears to be slowly turning better than the selling, particularly on periods of price weakness. (7) The next advancing phase when it occurs will be selective. For the in- vestment holder, safest purchases today can be found in the issues that have not adv.anced sharply, but have a good fundamental and technical background. Issues that fall into this category include American Viscose (35 1/2), Cluett Peabody (56 3/4), Daystrom (35 3/8), Diamond National (36) Electric Storage Battery (51 3/4), Johns Manville (53 l/!) , Singer Mfg. (55 3/4)and Swift & Co. ('42 IHl. For the speculator, suggest a package purchase of the low-priced issues in the August 12th letter. EDMUND v7. TAB ELL Dow-Jones Ind. – 602.18 VvALSTON & CO.INC. Doc; TonES Rails 192.42 This market letter 15 not, and under no CIrcumstances is to be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy RlY securities referred to herem The mformation contained herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnIshIng thereof IS not. and under no Circumstances is to be construed as. a representa tion by Walston & Co., Inc All expresSions of opinion are Bubjeet to change Wlthout nottce. Walston & Co., Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may ha\e an mterest in the secuntles informal commentary on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analysIs herem ThlS AdditIonal mformatlOn letter IS mtended With respeet to any and presented me securlttes referred retolyhae.Breamgve.n;i1c1rtblle. furnlShed upon request. . . . , \\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 23, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 23, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 23, 1960
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Walston Co.&- Inc. FILE MemberR New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGElES PHILADElPHIA CI-\ICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 23,1960 The triple bottom formed by the Dow-Jones Industrial average in March, May and July at 597 was penetrated last week and decisively so. The Industrials were off fifteen points on Monday and the decline continued to a Tuesday intra-day low of 581. 91. The list turned around midway through the Tuesday session and reached a high of 597.85 on Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, most of the gains had been given up with volum extremely light on the latter two days due to the Jewish holidays. The most commonly-asked question this week, of course, was What can be expected now that the market has penetrated the 600 level There is, .. on the part of some investors, an unfortunate tendency to regard the breaking of the 600 level with a mythical significance akin to the crossing of the Rubicon. That the decline to new lows is importan from a technical point of view is conceded. This importance, however, can be somewhat exaggerated. It will be recalled that the downside count indicated by the technical pattern at the August 1959 and January 1960 tops had three downside implications. The first of thes was around 600, which was finally penetrated this week. The other two were 578 and 550. At this week's intra-day low, the 578 level was almost reached. It now appears that the broad 550 -600 level is a buying area in which the averages will form a new base for a later advance. This does not rule out further weakness as a possibility. Indeed, the mid-week rally was unimpressive enough to make one suspect that the market has not yet found a' strong support level. Therefore, it is quite possible that the lower limit of the 550-600 range will be reached, and even that level may be This would imply the market's becoming oversold from h r period of time. mOtechnical point of view. Such an event, of course, would have a i or subsequent rally and, significantly, it is an occurrence that did not pIa a March, May or June lows. – As this letter has pointed out, the t has, until' recently, been im proving. Obviously, this week' s eterioration, although on a long term basis the indices eli!f;illy rable.1t must be remembered that breadth of the market is a Ie i . usually begins to turn long before the market reaches top 0 or ample, breadth action began deteriorating in March, 1959, d i e e averages made a new high in August, 1959 and e-q1.!alled it in Janu , 9 ior to the 1958-59 advance, breadth began improving in December 1957, s e fact that the market held around its lows and did not start to advance until mi ril of 1958. It is/therefore,unfair to say that the positive breadth action has been invalidated by this week's decline to new low levels. If the thesis that a buying area exists around current levels is correct, the in- vestor should be seeking stocks with a minimum of downside risk and attractive upside potential as vehicles for new buying. Many such stocks are,of course,contained in our recommended list and there are a number of other stocks and groups which appear at- tractive. The outlook for Aircrafts remains strongly bullish with both Martin (49 1/2) and North American Aviation (40 1/2) close to support. Airlines may have to do more work around current levels/ but appear close to their lows with American Airlines (191/8), attractive. Most Building Materials stocks are reaching their downside poten- tials and Bestwall Gypsum (36 1/2) and Johns Manville (521/2) appear interesting. Foods continue to show above average action and Food Chains appear to be slowly basing out. The technical position on the Meat Packing stocks appears to be improving also. The Office Equipment group is mixed, but International Business Machines (511) ap- pears attractive as does Underwood Corp. (46 3/8) on a speculative basis. The Natural Gas stocks also appear attractive from a technical point of view. Tobaccos continue in an uptrend and Philip Morris (71) and Reynolds (80) seem suitable for further moderate price appreciation. ED.'MUNDv'. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. I am leaving today to enter the hospital for an abdominal operation and will probably be there and recuperating at home for the next three to four weeks. This letter will be

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 30, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 30, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - September 30, 1960
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Walston &Co. Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS FILE COPY CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 30, 1960 The stock market decline continued throughout last week with the Dow-Jones In- dustrials reaching a low of 565.49 on Thursday. A late Thursday rebound continued on the final trading day and, at Friday's high, the average had recovered some seventeen points to 582.47. ! At the week's low, the Dow had fallen well over one hundred points, from the Januar high. Prospects at present can be viewed from two standpoints, that of level and that of p!obaole trend. From a level point of view, the market had this week, in terms of most averages, reached or come close to-reaching, the most pessimiStic downside implica- tions of the August-January top. It had reached a point very close to the lower limit of the trading range envisaged by this letter as containing the market over the next two to four years. It had, moreover, reached a point where many stocks were selling on a pure yield basis and at a relatively modest relationship to earnings. It would thus appea that the only stimulus to further decline in a large segment of the list could come from a fairly severe recession which would place dividends in a good deal more jeopardy than that in which they now seem to be. So far, economic indicators do not seem to point to a business decline of this magnitude. Thus, it was pointed out in this letter two weeks ago that investment odds would favor the purchase of selected equities on any further decline. Obviously, the sharp drop of the past two weeks has made these odds more favorable. From a trend point of view, the situation is less clear. It is belaboring the ob- vious to state that the trend of the general list since the first of the year has been down- ward. The obvious question at this point is what of the B8 immiment reversa of that trend. Here technical studies strike a few r t rst time this year, the market had, at this week's lows, reached a position on most tecnnica-riiiaicaturs. A rebouna TrOm-SUCh;!' -. ion is normally ' 7 indication available to the tainly the start of such a Friday's action was cer- d i 8JP ued next week, a rally of at least temporary proportions e Anothe r optim' t c . t week's oversold condition was reached with- out any increase I r re to new highs. On both a 10-week and 25-week moving total basis, sld ume at week's end was well below the levels that had been maintained most of 1960. Upside volume, on the other hand, was considerably above ow pOints reached in the earlier part of the year. These figures evidence an essential strength which has hardly been apparent in the action of the averages. One other factor should be noted. This is the all-important characteristic of selectivity which has characterized the action of the equity market for almost five years and has been just as evident in the recent decline as on many previous occa- sions. It is obvious to anyone who has scrutinized the entire list closely that many individual stocks and industry groups have strongly resisted the downside pressure of the past few weeks and that som e have even advanced. Despite the fact that the Dow is a hundred points below its January high, a goodly number of issues are at this moment selling above their January levels. – This type of action confirms the thesis so often mentioned in this letter that individual stock selection is far more important than attempts to pinpoint highs and lows in the averages. Thus, there appears to be very little reason to alter the thesis voiced by this letter over the past few weeks. This thesis is that the current weakness provides an opportunity for the purchase of carefully selected common stocks on a long term basis. ANTHON W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Ind. – 580.14 Dow-Jones Rails – 125.42 This anl;ttcr IS not, and under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, offer to Bell or a sohcitntlOn to buY any r.efeved to herein The mformatlOn contnined herein Is not guarantccd as to accuracy or completcness and the furnishmg thcreof 1S not, Ilnd under no circumstances IS to be construed as, R reprcscnt.a tlon by Walston & Co, Inc All expressIOns of opinIOn arc subJect to change notice Walston & Co, Ipc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholdcrs and E ployccs thereof purchase sell and may have lin mterest m the securities mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, wMIcommenb..ry on day to day market news an4 not as a complete analysis Additional information 'Ynth respcct to any SecUl'ltles referred to herem —

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