Viewing Month: April 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 01, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 After two day of heavy volume on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the averages reachin highs of 179.19 and 49.86 (up 4.20 and 2.05 from Monday's close), the market lost about half of the gain on Thursday and Friday ,on reduced volume. Date March 29th March 30th March 31st April 1st Industrial Averag;e Advance Decline 2.40 .06 1.35 .82 Total Volume 1,800,000 1,850,000 980,000 850,000 ,' ''\.. – Tuesday I s and Wednesday's volume was the largest since the NDvember decline. The fact that the market was unable to move ahead more than six cents on Wednesday's heavy trading indicates that the 178-182 upside resistance will be difficult to penetrate. The,declining volume on Thursday's and Friday'S sell-off is a favorable factor. The market is wedged between the January 7th to February 3rd upside reSistance and the March 7th to March 28th downside support. During the first period the market held in a range between 182.50 high and 177.88 low for twenty-four trading days. During the second period the market held in a range between 177.66 high and 174.30 low for nineteen trading days. At Friday'S close of 176.28, the market was off the top of the downSide support area. The hope that the upside gap at Tuesday's opening would prove to be a breakaway gap was destroyed when the gap was closed on Friday. It would appear that more time may have to be spent in the broad 175-182 area before the advance will be resumed. The market continues in the uptrend channel from the February 25th lows as witness the table below Date High Low February 25th March 14th March 23rd March 30th 177.66 179.19 170.56 174.32 We have issued recent thumbnail sketches on Brooklyn Union Gas, Commonwealth & Southern, Sharon Steel and White Sewing Machine. They are available on request. The first two issues are being added to our recommended list. The last two have been part of the list for some time. April 1, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN 1lIT, memorandum II no. to b, contfrued 1111 en offer or ItOllcitatlon of off. to buy or 11 any securltl… kom tIme to tlmo Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may r.haft an Int.rt'st In some or all of the IKurtties mentioned her,ln. The for'4011'l; mat.rlal has been prepared by us ill II; matter of Information only. It based upon InformatIon bellend reliable but not necessarily compl.t., II not ;uo!Irent..d as accura or final, and I, not Intended to foreclose 1ndependent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 08, 1949
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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. NEW YORK, N. Y. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. BAKERSFIELD. BEVERLY HILLS. EAST ORANGE, N. J. EUREKA .PASADENA RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SAN DIEGO FRESNO LONG BEACH -.. MODESTO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA STOCKTON OAKLAND VALLEJO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 The majorit\- of' issues in our recommended list (ontinue to show above average market action. There are brief analytical resumes of each of these issues available U8n request. These brief thumbn8il sketches are concerned mainly with the fundamental background of tr-,e issue discussed. Usually, there is brief analysis of the technical market action at the enG of thE-' Sketch. I am starting below a more complete summary of the technical market action of each issue. As I have stated before, I believe the soundest method of appraising possible future market action of an in,lividual stock is a combination of the fundamental or statistical factors together with the technical or supply-and-demand factors. American Cyanamid (O). The stock dropped sharply from the 63 3/4- high in the Summer of 194-6 tc reach a low around 4-2 three months later. A sharp rally back to 55 in December was followed by a new low at 4-0 in May, 194-7. After that there were sporadic rallies back to 4-8 but the stock was in . quite dei'.nite downtrend until the low of 33 1/) was reached in February 194-8. Since that time, the action has dp-finitely improved and the stock appears to 'LlE in a slov; uptrend. The downtrend lines from the 194-6 tops have broken and the stock shows better than average action. The whole area or 30-4-0 is a very strong long term support area. Ability to reach 4-4- would be a very constructive signal ana indicate the possibility of an initial advance to the 50-55 level. 'l'he point to watch on the do,msiee is 37. Failure to hold at that point and a decline to 36 would destro,' the potentially f2vorable pattern and indicate a return to the lowcr thirties. This would be disconcerting from a timing point of vievr rather than from the danger of a decline to much lower levels. Advise pUf'c),ase of tts stock as a semi-investment equity. American Home Proucts (26 5/8). This isse reached a high of 4-3 1/4- in 1946 on an adjusted price basis. The distributional top outlined in the 4-3-35 range inr2icated a decline to 24–18. The stock reached a low of approximately 23 in 147 hen held in the 23-26 range until February 194-8 when a sharp dip carried the stock down to 20 7/8. The stock quickly returned to the 23-26 trading range in which it held until recently. The pattern of te lows of 23-21-23 and a top of 26 is a strong potential technical pattern. The recent upside penetration to 27 is a technical confirmatiol of the potentially bullish pattern. Would expect an upswing to 32-35 before much upside reSistance is encountered. The stock is a rather slow moving semi-investment issue but the price trend appears to point tOlmrc hie.! 'er levels. America!l Seatinc (2'7). The 194-6 distributional areI'. in the 33-30 range indicateG. a decline to the 18-13 area. A low of 15 1/4- was reached in 194-7. Since that time the stock has been working gradually higher. For the last nine months it has held in an area bounded roughly by 23 and 28. T'lis obviously has been better action than the generE.l lnarket. At 28, the stock raeets the overhead supply in the 27-33 range in which the stock held for ten months during 194-5-194-6. The technical pattern suggests an ultimate penetration of the overhead resistance and new high territory. A decline below 23 would destroy the pattern. ConSider this issue a very attractive speculation. The above summaries 0'-' the technical marli-et action of three recommended issues are eJamples of the technical approach. In addition to analyzing the technical pattern of recommended issues, or issues which we believe should ce sold, it is our function to analyze the technical patterns of issues ir' which our clients or potential clients are interested. We welcome your inquiries. Al'ril 8, 194-9 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Thll memorandum Is not to be construed as an cffer or lollcltatlon of oHel1 to bLl)' Of n any curltl.L From tim. to tim. W.lston, Hoffman a Goodwin may heft an Int…… In tom. or all of the ,ocurltl.s mentioned herein. The fOQolnQ mat.tlal hal been pr.red by u, as a matter of Information only. It II bal.d upon Information b.II……d r.llable but not neceslardy complete, Is not Quarantoed al accurata or final, and Is not Interlded to foreclo.e Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 18, 1949
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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. –, –… Iston,Hoffmon& GOO ……..rii NEW YORK, N. Y. …. -……….. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. BAKERSFIELD BEVERLY HILLS EAST ORANGE. N. J EUREKA PASADENA RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SAN DIEGO FRESNO LONG BEACH SAN JOSE SANTA AHA MODESTO STOCKTON OAKLAND VALLEJO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER \ 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 Over the past three months the market has had to contend with a barrage of unfavorable news from the business front. Only a glance at the headlines would seemingly indicate that there is only one way which the market could move and that is down. The bearish psychology which, with the exception of two or three brief interludes, has prevailed for the last thirty-one months has been intensified. Yet with all of the current bearishness, the market has not sold off. It has been in a slow uptrend since the February 25th lows with individual issues reaching new high territory for the year. For example, five issues in our recommended list of issues equalled or reached new highs for 1949 during the past week. Also, volume indications have been favorable with greater volume occurring on advances than declines. These elements,together with the lack of public interest, low brokers' loans and no vulnerable speculative positions,would seemingly 'indicate that the recent selling has been poor and the buying has been good. In other words, to use an overworked phrase, stocks appear to be moving into stronger hands. As time goes on, the January high of 182.50 and the November low of 170.35 become of increasing importance. The 182.50 level is important because it was the high point after the Election upset. The 170.35 level is important because it was the low point of both the fears of increased taxes and controls in November and the business recession fears in February and March. Ability to pass either point should indicate the direction of the next important intermediate term market move. At the present price of, 177, the market is poised approximately halfway between these two important points. ' I believe the ultimate penetration out of the present stalemate, when it occurs, will be on the upside. The unfavorable news has been discounted and a great deal of the potentially unfavorable developments may never happen. April 18, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ThIs memorandum I. not to be construed illS an off.r or IOliella'lan of oHers to buy or ,.11 IIIny '8curltiu. from time to Hme Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may have an Int.r.st In some or all of thtl securities mentioned horeln. The foreqoln9 mat.rlal has been prep,ared by III til II metter of Information only. It I, baled apon InformatIon believed rellabl. but not neceSlarll, complete, Ii not Quaranfeed a, accurflte or flnfll, and Is nof Intended to foreclose Independent InquIry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 20, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 20, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 20, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 Continued below is a technical market analysis of the issues in my recommended list. Avco Corporation. After reaching a high of 14 3/8 in 1946, the stock declined to a low of 4 1/2 in early 1948. For almost a year the stock has held in a very restricted trading range between roughly 6 and 7t. It would appear that the entire 4t-7t trading range of the past thirty-one months is a broad potential accumulation area. The first upside objective is 10 to 12. Percentagewise, this would be a very sizeable move. As there are approximately 6,618,000 shares of stock outstanding, the stock moves rather slowly. Purchase is advised in the 6-6t range for a longer term appreciation. Bendix Aviation Corporation. After reaching a high of 63 in late 1945, the stock declined sharply in the 1946 break. Since that time it has been holding in a comparatively narrow trading range between roughly 26 low and 39 higho In fact, most of the- time has been spent in the 30-35 area. The formation has the appearance of accumulation and ability to break out of this recent range on the upside would indicate a further advance to 45-48 at which point considerable overhead resistance would be met. Bigelow-Sanford Carpet Companyo This stock was split two for one in April, 1948. On an adjusted split basis the stock reached an approximate high of 41 in April, 1946. The low point for the last two and a half years was reached in May, 1947 when the stock sold down to approximately 24. The mid-Summer rally of 1948 carried the stock back to a high of 37. The recent low has been 26 3/8 on a full figure basis. Failure to hold above 26 would be discouraging from a short term point of view as it would destroy the potential base area built up over the past four months in the 27-32 range. However, the distribution area is not wide and the 24-25 support area should hold. 'Borg-Warner Corporation. Recent action of this stock has been disappointing in contrast with its relatively favorable action over the past two years. After reaching a high of approximately 61 in early 1946, the October 1946 reaction carried the stock to a low of 36. By mid-1948 the stock not only recovered all of this lost ground but reached new high territory at 66. It was one of the few issues that bettered the 1946 high in 1948. Since that time, however, its reaction has been below average with a recent low bf 44. However, the long term uptrend in effect since October 1946 is still intact with successive lows of 36 in October 1946, 38 in May 1947, 43 in February 1948 and 44 recently. The 40-44 area appears to be a rather strong support range and it would appear that the stock is in a buying area. However, some time may be spent in the 40-50 area, building up another base, before any worthwhile move is indicated EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Thll memorandum I. not to b. construed al an off.r or solicitation of offen to buy or ,all IIny .ecurltles. From tim. to tim. Walston, Hoffm.an & &Godwin may ha…. an Int.r.st In lome or all of the securltlel mentioned her.ln. The fore901,,; ma..rlal has been prepared by us a, III matter of Information only. It Is bas.d upon In'ormatlon bell.yod rellabl. but not necessarlly complete, Is not qUllranteed as accurat. or final, and Is not Intended to foreclose Independent inquIry. ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 22, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LEnER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK S. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 The downside penetration of the month-old trading range has changed the minor trend to down 0 After reaching 179.19 on the Dow-Jones industrial average on March 30th, the average held above the previous March 23rd low of 174.32 until Thursday. Friday's low was 172.64. The rail average at Friday's low of 46.83 also penetrated the previous low of 46.98. Outside of the minor trend, there is no change in the other trends. The intermediate trend has been down since the June-July highs of 194.49 and 65.23. Both averages have held above the February lows of 170.56 and 46.04. There has been no change in the major trend which is still holding in the narrow sidewise 15 range which it has occupied for thirty-two months since September, 1946. I have consistently maintained that this sidewise movement of the last thirty-two months is an accumulation area with stocks passing from weaker into stronger hands. During this period various industries have gone through a deflationary and re-adjustment process. In a great many instances this adjustment appears completed. It continues to be my opinion that the market is in a buying range whenever the 170-160 area is entered or approached. Whether this area will be entered again is open to question. The important thing to bear in mind is that periods of weakness at or near the 170-160 level offer a buying opportunity in selected issues. I repeat my December 15th forecast that the low of 1949 will most likely be reached in the first three months of 1949 and will not be mUCh, if any, below the 170.35 low of November and certainly above 160. The following issues offer better than average appreCiation possibilities. Closing 4/22/49 American Cyanamid Amer. Home Products American Seating Avco Bendix Aviation Bigelow Sanford Borg -Warner Brooklyn Union Gas Cities Service Commercial Credit Commonwealth & Southern Cooper Bessemer Denver Rio Grande Eastman Kodak Eastern Airlines Electric Power & Light Firestone Tire & R Firth Carpet Flintkote Fruehauf Trailer Hewitt-Robins Holland Furnace International Min.& C 39 1/4 27 28 6 3/8 32 1/8 25 1/4 43 26 1/8 44 1/8 50 3 3/4 30 3/4 25 1/8 44 1/4 15 23 1/4 48 14 23 1/2 IB 3/4 17 23 25 1/2 Offered by Prospectus only. April 22, 1949 ClOSing 4/22/49 Intertype Corp Johns Manville Joy Manufacturing Kresge (S.So) Lowenstein Niagara Hudson Paraffine Companies Penn-Dixie-Cement Pressed Steel Car Radio Corp Reynolds Metals st. Regis Paper Schenley Sears Roebuck Shamrock Oil & Gas Sharon Steel Shell Union Oil Sperry Corp Standard Steel Spring Sylvania Electric Sunshine Mining Wheeling Steel White Sewing Machine Youngstown Sheet & T 26 34 1/4 38 1/2 37 3/4 22 1/4 10 7/8 17 1/4 21 1/2 6 liB 12 liB 20 7/B 7 5/B 25 3/4 3B 30 1/2 29 1/8 34 3/4 27 3/B 15 liB 21 1/2 9 3/B 39 7/B 22 3/4 63 liB EDMUND W0 TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN mIlThis memorlndum I. not to b. conlfrved as an offer or solicitation of offers to buy Of ,.11 anv .ecurltles. From tIme to tlmo Wellton, Hoffman & Goodwin heY. lin Int.rut In some Of aU of ttle securltle. mentioned herein. Th' foteQoln; melte,lel hal been prepared by us as a matter of Information only. It II bue upon Informetlon bolloved r.llabl, but not necessarily complete, Is not 9uafantetd a. accurate or final, and Is not Intended to foredose Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 27, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 27, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 27, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 For the speculator who likes to purchase well deflated issues, I am listing below a group of stocks that are now selling at a price of approximately one-third 'of their 1945-1946 highs. All of these issues paid dividends in 1948 but that is no reason to assume that such payments will be continued in 1949. To eliminate issues that were purely war beneficiaries, I have added an additional requirement – namely, that at present price no issue is selling at more than ten times 1940 earnings. From a technical viewpoint, while most of these issues appear to have reached their approximate lOWS, very few have built up sufficient base patterns to indicate any important near term move. Undoubtedly, considerable patience will be required. However, even if these, issues regained only half of their three-year declines, the percentage appreciation would be sizeable. Approx. Price 19451946 High 1940 Earn. 1948 Earn. 1948 Div. Air Reduction Allegheny Ludlum Amer.Machine. & Foundry American Stove loom Idwin Locomotive Iron Works 11 Aircraft lumenthal (Sidney) Aluminum Stores lard Company limax, Molybdenum ol1ins & Aikman Columbia Broad. An Consol.Coppermines Cudahy Packing Products General Precision Equip. Hollander & Son Kalamazoo Stove Lehn & Fink Carbonic Truck ttan Shirt ional Can iles-Bement-Pond ific Tin Ivania R.R. ington Rand 1, Inc. Brands Chemical Mining ton Gould .S.Ldustrial Chern. Pump e Motor e & Towne 21 22 13 9 10 11 13 12 6 24 17 14 14 16 18 3 1/2 7 8 13 10 10 10 15 12 16 6 1/2 8 1/2 3 1/2 15 8 8 17 7 9 1/2 4 1/2 19 12 15 ,21 59 3/4 61 1/8 45 1/4 38 7/8 30 38 7/8 39 3/4 35 1/2 26 3/8 78 48 1/4 46 7/8 44 1/2 63 1/2 47 10 3/4 20 33 3/4 4-0 1/2 40 36 33 43 1/4 38 3/8 46 1/2 21 3/4- 26 1/4- 11 1/8 47 1/2 23 7/8 24 7/8 55 24 1/4 24 16 7/8 62 47 1/2 47 1/8 61 1/2 2.38 2.78 1.35 2.17 1.04 1. 75 4.90 .95 1. 79 4.09 1.92 6.15 2.40 5.15 2.92 .51 1.00 .91 1.45 2.10 1.96 (b) 1. 54 2.21 1.51 2.20 .72 2.29 .90 3.51 .77 1.67 2.72 .86 1.82 1.1-7 2.14 3.18 2.84 2.90 2.36 5.05 1.66 1.06 2.65 1.26 1.31 (d) .80 1.31 2.76 3.05 1.58 1.04 (a) .46 2.94 .13 .36 (d) .38 1.56 1.01 2.10 .30 3.01 1.56 2.32 .19 1.55 .68 2.61 2.00 3.00 2.05 .70 .80 .28 (a)(d)3.92 (d) 1.13 4.98 4.17 Adjusted (d) Deficit j Nine months. Adjusted for change in fiscal year. 1.00 2.00 .80 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .60 1.00 2.00 .50 1.20 1.00 2.00 .30 .60 .50 1.00 1.00 95 .25 1.00 1.50 1.75 .25 .60 .20 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 ,50 .60 .50 2.50 1.50 1.45 1.00 11 27, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This memorandum Is not to be construed 01 an offer or solicitation of offen to buy or 1111 any s.curltlel. From time to 11m. Walston, Hoffman' &COdin may have an Interelt In lome or all of the IIcurlt'e. mentioned hlreln. Th. foreQoln; mat.rlal has bun prepal1ld by VI 01 a matter of Information only. It Is bated upon Information belJ'YlId rell4ble but not necenonlv complete, Is not liIuaranteed 01 occurate or final, and Is not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry. – –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 29, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 29, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - April 29, 1949
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TABEll'S MARKET lETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 ) \ ,, The range of the market, as portrayed by the Dow-Jones industrial average, is narrowing. This average has been in a downtrend since the June, 1948 high of 194,49, Since that time each successive high has been below the prevtous high, The June high was 194.49, the October high was 190.88; the January high was 182.50 and the March high was 179.19. Until November, this downtrend was also evident in the low pOints reached by the industrial average with a September low of 175.99 and a November low of 170,35. However, since that time, the low point of November has 'held. The February low was 170.56 and the April 22nd low was 172.64. In other wordS, despite the increasing pessimism and the downtrend in bUSiness, the market average has not broken into new low grund, As time goes on, the high of 179.19 and the 10\'1 of 170.35 become of increasing importance, If one or both of the averages hold above their respective lows (46,04 on the rails) and then succeed in passing the highs of 179.19 and 49.86, the turn in the intermediate trend of the market will be indicated. In fact, some students of the Dow Theory woul consider such action a new indication of the major trend and a signal of a new bull market, I would not attach that much significance to such action as I do not believe a Dow Theory signal in the middle of a long thirty-two month range has the importance of a breakout into new territory. Under the same reasoning, a bear market signal was given in November at 175.98 and 57.41. NOW, after five months, the rails are of course lower,but the industrials have not sold much below that point. However, ability to penetrate 179.19 and 79.86. would be a definite change in the intermediate trend. A new low below 170,35 would be a re-affirmation of the intermediate downtrend already in effect and a dip into my oftrm recommended 170-160 buyin.; level. Of course, no change in the intern,ejiate downtrend has yet occurred, but I continue to believe that the eventual breakout of the long thirty-two month trading range, between 194 and 160, will be on the upside, The main reasons for my belief are (1) the low price-earnings ratiO, (2) the high yields in face of the low percentage of earnings paid out in dividends, (3) the favorable marin and loan situations with no forced liquidation in prospect, (If) the fact that despite a moderate decline in bUSiness from the record year of 1948, business will be wa above the pre-war years. April 29, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN . I I \ I This memorandum I, not to b. construed .as ar'I offer or lollcTtation of offers to buy or 141111 any securities. From time to time Walston, Hoffman GoodwIn mey have en tnterett In lome or ell of the securities mentioned hereIn. The 10t.;olnG mot.rlal has been prepared by us 1 oil matter of Information only. It Is baled upon Information believed rollllble but not necessarily complete, Is not Querenteed til IIccurate or finel, lind Is not Intended to foredose Independent Inquiry.

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