Viewing Month: January 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 05, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Olqby 4-4141 In most of my recent discussions of the technical pattern of the market, I have concentratLd on the longer term outlook. It might be appropriate at the moment to look into the intermediate trend of the next few hlonths. The intermediate trend has been down since the June closing high of 193.16 and, as yet, there has been no indication of a turn. The decline from the June high reached a low of 175 ..99 in September. The pre-Election rally in October failed to penetrate the June high. The high was 190.13. This action built up a broad potential distributional area across the June-October tops. This was confirmed as a downtrend by the penetration of the September low in the post-Election maret. The November 30th low was 171.20. The distributional top at 193-190 indicated a decline to the 172-165 area. The November low just about reached the top of this area. The rajl average has had a similar downtrend pattern with a J111y closing high of 64.95 and an October high of 62.24. The September low was 57.45 and tbe November 30th 10 was 51.91. The distributional top at 64-62 indicater a declne to the 52-49 level. Here again the November low just about reached the tGp of this area. Similar formations are present in both the New York Times and New York Herald-Tribune averages. Both of these are conbined averages. The Times average indicated a decline to 114-109 and the November low was around 110. The HeraldTribune average indicated a decline to 116 and reached a low of slightly under 119 in November. Individual issues also show similar action. Without going into each individual case, some issues appear to have reached bottom at the November 30th lows while others indicate the possibility of working somewhat lower t the November lows. Since the sharp break after the election upset, the industrial average liss held in a trading range bounded roughly by 178 high and 172 low. An upside penetration of ths range would indicate the possibility of a rally to 183-18,. A down- side penetration would indicate the possibility of a decline to the 170-165 area. Which of these two events is the more likely From a study of other technical indicators, I am more inclined to favor the upside for the next month. Various breadtli-of-the-market stUdies indicate an improving technical pattern. But regardless of the near term action of the market, it would appear that any time the averages approach or enter the 170-165 area, individual issues are in a buying range. It is possible that this range will not be entered in 1949. I repeat my longer term interpretation of the market. I believe the low of 1949 will be made in the first three months. This low mayor may not be above the November 30th low of 171.20. In any event, I do not believe it will be below 160. I believe the high of' the year will be above 200 and that the longer term (1950-1951) objective is 240-250. In a nuter.ell, the first three months of the year are uncertaln with probabilities favoring the upside, but with considerable irregularity. The last three quarters of the year will witness a gradually rising trend. EDMOND W. TABELL January 5, 1949 WALSTON, HOFFMAN& GOODWIN , t

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 07, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 07, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 07, 1949 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - January 07, 1949 page 2
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y Digby 4.4141 Our bullish attitude of the past few weeks has been justified as the averages have now broken out on the upside of the trading ranges of the past two months. The penetration by the industrials was quite decisive but the rails have not fully confirmed the upswing. The rails have been relatively backward in the stronger markets of the last few days but ability to reach 55 would fully confirm the bullish pattern of the industrial average. The utility average and the 65- Stock Combined average have also reached new territory as have the New York Herald-Tribune average and the New York Times average. The minor term trend is now indicated as up. The bases formd'by the trading range of the past two months indicate an initial objective of 183-187 on the industrials and 57-58 on the rails. Listed below are the comparable upside objectives of a number of leading individual issues. The first column is the breakout point that must be reached before the objective in the second column is indicated Confirmation Point Objective American Can Atchison, Topeka &S. F. Celanese Chrysler Deere & Co. Douglas DuPont Goodrich Illinois Central Jones &Laughlin Kansas City Southern Montgomery Ward Schenley Shell Union Oil Southern Pacific Standard Oil of New Jersey U. S. Steel 83 104 33 56 36 54 184 62 32 34 43 59 31 41 52 75 73 89 114-118 37 58-61 41 60 194-196 65-68 35-37 36-38 47 62 35-38 47 55 82 75-78 These objectives, together with those for the averages, are obviously for a shorter term move. When these objectives are reached would expect a cor- rection and a further broadening of the base pattern prior to a resumption of the longer term advance. EDMUND W. TABELL January 7, 1949 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN this memorandum I. not to b. eonstrued oI!II an oH.r or sol1cllatlOfl of often to buy or lell eny IKuritiet. From time to time Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin mllly have an Intero,f In .ome or ell of ffle lOCurities mentioned herein. The fore901n9 material hes bHn pr..pa,ed by us ., a metter of information only It is baSed upon information believed reliable but not ntlcular.l.,. complet., i not qUllrant.ed al accrlltft or final, and il not intended to foreclose independent inqUiry. – TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION Wolston.Hoffmon &, Goodwin. INTERNATIONAL MINERALS &. CHEMICAL CORP. International Minerals &Chemical derives the bulk of its s41e5 from super- phosphate fertilizers, Mixed and complete fertilizrs, phosphate rock and potash. Demand for fertilizer has increased greatly in recent years as is indicated by the 5n18s trend ,hich increased from 11.7 million in 1939 to over 50 million in 1948. Despite narrOwing margins the earnings trend has also been upward h2.ving shown 5.85 a common share in the fiscal year ended June 30, 1948 as compared with 4.35 in 1947, S3.92 in 1946 and 2.76 in 1945. For the first three months of the current yee.r ended September 30th, common per share earnings amounted to 87 VB. 33 for the like peried in the previous fiscal ycar. Further sales gnins are indicated during the comin months and earings for the full year should compare favorallly with those shovm in the preceding year. Anticipating a further increase, th8 companY recently increased its divi- dend rate from 40 quarterly to 50 qUD.rterly. On the nnua1 indicated 02.00 dividend th. stock e.t present levels gives a yiald Ln 2XC;)SS of 7. The stock has a very strong long term technical pattern ,'1 th a slo-l) ascending uptrend. The high of the past two years is 36. 'fh'J stock roached 45 in 1946. 'fhe potGntinl long term objective is abOV0 60. Tho shorter term pattern is also attractive. A potential base l.rea has been built up in th0 25-28 range ,-Ii t)-, an objective of 35-38. ElECTRIC POiLR AND LIGHT CORPORATION Electric Povrer & Light Corporation is a public utility holding company owning 94.9 or 10,108,101 common shares of United Gas Corporation, d the common stocks of four electric operating companies. Under the proposed plan these electric companies vlill form a new holding companY knovm as Middle South Utilities, Inc., with an initial capitalization of 4,400,000 shares of com!J1.on stock. Iuuninent approval by the SEC of Electric Power and Light's amendod reorganization plail is exp8cted. The folloling tabulation shows pertinent data and treatment of various classes of securities Alloc,'\tions Securities 7 1st pfd. ;'6 1st pfd. 7 2nd pfd. Approx. – -Market 156 140 148 United Gas Middle Sou th Comrr.on Common 6.5 shs. 4.5 shs. 5.9 shs. 4.1 shs. 6.25 shs. 4.3 shs. Accruals 1/3/49 89.71 76.90 117.25 Est. Workout Values 91 – 200 174 – 182 183 – 192 The remaining assets would be distributed to holders of Electric Power & Light's common stock and warrants. For purposes of distribution, the warrants would bo treated as 1/3 of stock of Electric a share Power & of common stock. t Light would be worth present estimated approximately 29 values the common a share. -1.' The stock has bcen building up an almost perfect technical pattern for the last two to tvro nnd a half YGars. The stock raached a high of 23 in mid-1948 and since that time has been backing and filling in the 19-23 area. There seems to bo a floor at 19 and abilHy to pen8trate the. 1948 high would indicate 28-30. Wolston.Hoffmon &, Goodwin INVESTMENT SECURITIES BAKERSFI ElD BEVERLY HiltS EUREKA FRESNO LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND PASADENA. SAN 'RANCISCO 4, CALIF. 265 Montgomery Street 35 WALL STREET NEW YORK 5, N. Y. LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. 550 South Spring Street RIVERSIDE; SACRAMENTO SAN DIEGO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA STOCKTON VALLEJO This memorandum is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of offers to buy or StU any securities. From time to time Walnon. Hoffman & Goodwin mllV hove an interest in some or o!Iff of the securffles ment10ned hernin. The foregoing mll!teriaf has been prepo!Ired bv us as II! metter of Information only. It is bll!sed upon informo!ltlon believed reliable but not necenarily complete, Is not gUo!Ifanteed as accurate or final, and ts not intended to foreclose independent inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 44141 Quite often you read something in the news which coincides exactly with your own ideas. A recent article of Jules I. Bogen in his Financial Situation column in the Journal of Commerce of January 11th fits this classification. I am reprinting it below Dividend yields on Common stocks have been pushed up close to the highest on record, as a result of recent dividend rate increases and sagging markets late last 6tyear. Average yield of all common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange exceeds per cent at the present time, making allowance for the latest wave of dividend in- 6tcreases. Only once in the last O years – in 1932 – did listed Common stocks return more than per cent for an entire' year. Moody's index of yields of 200 stocks climbed to 6.72 per cent for November, doubtless considerably higher for December. A year before, this index was 5.54 per cent, showing a rise in the average yield of well over 1 per cent for the year. Industrial stocks showed a much sharper gain in dividend return than the inclusive group stocks. Further increases in dividends by many corporations are likely this year, even if a moderate downturn in earnings occurs. For one thing, many corporations will be completing their major .. capital expansion programs, and so will have less need for withholding earnings from shareholders. Secondly, a more stable commodity price trend will lessen the need for additional working capital to finance expansion of inventories and receivables. Particularly because new capital needs may be smaller, corporations will be under pressure to payout more liberal dividends because of Section 102 of the Revenue Act. This law imposes a punitive surtax for 'unreasonable' accumulations of surplus. Business expansion needs are often decisive evidence that surplus increases are 'reasonable,' so that less expansion makes concerns more vulnerable. That investors appreciate a stable dividend return is indicated by fact that utility common stock yields are now considerably below the average for industrials. In November, Moody's index showed that 25 utilities yielded an average of 6.08 per cent, whereas 125 industrials yielded 6.98 per cent. A year before, the utility yield averaged considerably higher than the industrial yield. Since industrials are generally paying out a much smaller percentage of earnings than utilities, it is the more striking that utility yields average lower. This fact indicates a strong tendency among investors to emphasize a stable dividend return more than the earntngsprice ratio under prevailing conditions. The sharp rise in investment yields returned by Common stocks has been an important factor in the strength displayed by the market in the trading during the first week of the year. With the apparent passing of the threat of an excess profits tax or a very rise in the corporate income levy, there is less fear of a major decline in corporate net incomes. Hence, stocks generally are likely to give as great a return this year as last, if not more. Investor accumulations of common stocks for yield has been in considerable evidence since the turn of the year. The tapering off of inflation should be distinctly favorable to the stock market under existing conditionp; It serves to dissipate fears of a return of an excess profits tax or other major tax changes. It lessens' prospective corporate new capital requirements, and sO'makes it possible to payout more earnings as dividends. It reduces new corporate borrowing that is needed to finance business at a higher price level, which weakens the stockholders' equity in enterprise. The prospect for liberal, reasonably stable dividend returns constitutes an important stabilizing factor in the stock market. There are available, on request, write-ups on Electric ower &Light and International Minerals & Chemical. Both issues are on our recommended list. , l' , /' EDMUND W. TAliELL January 12, 1949 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN 0This IMmorandum h….. an Interest In Is not JOfM to or be all constnJed as an of the SKuritiM or solicitation of mentioned herein. The offen to foregoing buy or sell any curitiu. From material has been prepared by tims ealto timm.ett.Wralomf;lo;faftmlan I Goodjlnb maJ onty. It I lise upon Information believed reliable bitt not necenarily completll, is not Quarllnteed as accUfate or final, and not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 14, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 14, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 14, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 3S WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4.4141 Weakness on Friday brought the Dow-Jones industrial average back to the strong 179-178 support level. Friday's low was 178.19 and the close was 178.80. The 179-178 level is the top of the long trading shelf of 178-172 in which the industrials held from early November to early January. It should furnish strong downside support. The rail average, which has shown relatively poorer action than the industrials and has failed to break out on the upside of its comparable November-January trading shelf of 54-52, still remains in the trading range. Friday's close was 52.39 compared with the 51.87 closing low of January 3rd. There is stong support in the 52-50 area of the rail average. The decline from the January 7th high appears to be a normal technical correction of the sharp eight-point advance from a low of 174.37 on January 3rd to a high of 182.50 on January 7th. The approximate four-point decline from January 7th top to Friday's low is a normal one-half correction of the advance. I believe the odds favor an advancing trend from approximately Friday's lows and an attempt to penetrate the 183 level in the industrials and 55 in the rails. As to individual issues, I like the twenty-five stocks listed below. They all have excellent longer term technical patterns and in addition, the fundamental background appears to be favorable. Thumb nail sketches of these issues are available to clients of the firm. Avco Burlington Mills Cj.ties Service Cooper Bessemer Denver & Rio Grange Eastern Airlines Electric Power & Light Firestone Tire Firth Carpet Flintkote Hewitt Robins Holland Furnace Closing l'lij9 18 1/8 44 5/8 28 26 15 1/4 22 7/8 46 7/8 17 1/4 29 20 7/8 23 Inter. Min & Chem Joy Manufacturing Lowenstein Penn-Dixie Cement Pressed Steel Car Radio Corp st. Regis Paper Schenley Sears Roebuck Sharon Steel Shell Union Oil Standard Steel Spring White Sewing Machine Closing 12/g41/j4 38 22 3/4 19 1/4 7 3 /8 13 8 3/4 29 5/8 38 1/4 36 5/8 38 7/8 14 3/4 19 1/2 January 14, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This memorandum Is not to b. consblMd 1111 an offer Of solicitatIon of offen to buy or sell any securities. From time to time WalltonloHoffman & Goodwin may h…… an Interest 'n some Of aU of the securiliH menfloMd herein. The foregoing meMnal has been pnpared by UI a, a matter of In rmatlC! only. It Is balfld upon Information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, is not 9uaranteed ,n aCCfate or finlli. and II not Intended to foreclo.e Indepflldent inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 17, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 17, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 17, 1949
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-/ TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION Wolston.Hoffmon &, Goodwin , THE FIRESTONE TIRE AND RUBBER COMPANY Firestone Tire and Rubber, although the third largest factor in the industry, ras second with respect to dollar volume because of its large retailing business. Prewar, almost 70 of sales was derived from tires and tubes, of which 23 was for original equipment. With broader diversification in recent years, the oompa is no longer as dependent upon this source for income, having expanded into the manufacture of a wide variety of meohanical and latex rubber products, plastios and misoellaneous items. Due to model ohangeovers sales for the fiscal year ended October 31, 1948 dropped slightly to 633.9 million from 638.4 million in 1947. However, earnings per share rose slightly to l3.64 from the 13.46 in the previous fiscal year With probable growth in most of its non-tire aotivities and tire shipments estimated to run about the srume as last year, sales should hold up well and earnings should be substantial. The oommon dividends on a regular basis have been paid in every year sinoe 1924 and last year 4,00 was paid. At the ourrent prioe of 47 the stook gives a yield of 8 1/2, The stook appears to be in the process of fonning a strong base pattern in the 43-53 range, The 43 low has been tested on three oocasions. An upside penetration of the range would indioate substantially higher levels, CITIES SERVICE COMPANY , Cities Servioe is one of the larger integrated oompanies in the petroleum industry with some 86 of its 1947 revenues derived from oil and gas operations. with the balanoe obtained from its utility properties from whioh it will ultimately divest itself. In 1947 the oompany oompleted 403 oil produoing gas wells, produoed 33 million barrels of oil and 154 billion oubic feet of gas. In addition the oompa handled even larger quantities of fuel gas and oil purohased' from other producers, In its plan for divestment of its utility properties filed with the SEC, the oompany proposes to sell off its three remaining properties, namely, Ohio Publio Servioe, Toledo Edison, and Spokane Gas and Fuel. Cities Service estimates its equity in these oompanies at a minimum of 85 million. Prooeeds of the sale of these properties are to be turned over to trustees to be used for the retirement of an equivalent amount of the parent compa's bonds. Net earnings have been inoreasing rapidly having shown 3.12 per share on a oonsolidated basis in 1945, 6.4l in 1946, 10.93 in 1947, with 1948 earnings estimated in the neighborhood of 19 a share. A regular dividend of 2.00 plus a year end extra of l.OO was paid last year. These payments are so small in proportion to net inoome that there is a good ohance they will be inoreased above present rates this year. At the present prioe of 45 1/2 and on the dividends paid last year, the stook gives a yield of 6.6 After reaohing a high of 66 in mid 1948 the stook built up a distributional pattern that indioated a decline to the 38-40 range, whioh was the area it aotually reached in the November low. The stook appears to be in the prooess of forming a reaooumulation area and appears to be a purohase in the lower 40's, EIrJIIUND W, TABELL January 17, 1949 Wolston.Hoffmon &. Goodwin INVESTMENT SECURITIES BAKERSFIELD BEVERLY HILLS EUREKA FRESNO LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND PASADENA SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. . 35 WALL STREET 265 Montgomery Street NEW YORK 5, N. Y. LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. 550 South Spring Street RIVERSIDEi SACRAMENTO SAN DIEGO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA STOCKTON VALLEJO This memorandum is not to be construed (IS 4n offer or solicitation of offen to buy or sell lIny securities. From time to time i'i;;i;'1';'; & Goodwin mav have an ink/rost In some or all of the securities mentioned herein. The foregoin9 material hIlS been prepared by 1,15 tiS a matte., 1 only. It is based upon information belle.,.ed reliable but not necessarily complete, Is not 9uaranteed (15 accurate or final, and is not intended Independent inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 19, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. DIgby 44141 The technical patterns on a number of stocks in the consumer goods industry such as retail trade, distilling, amusement, clothing and, in some cases, textiles, are at least beginning to show signs that these issues are under accumulation. The patterns on some of these issues are more favorable than at any time since 1943 and 1944 when these groups were undergoing an accumulation period prior to the subsequent sharp ups,wing that reached its peak in the Spring of 1946. When I turned bearish on the market in the Spring of 1946, and did not advocate long term purchases until after the September-October 1946 break, I avoided any buying recommendations in the consumer goods group, but rather concentrated on the oils, rails, coppers, steels and other companies in the durable goods or allied lines. This proved to be the correct approach as these stocks moved ahead over the next two years while the consurrr goods stocks slowly drifted down to new lows on every dip in the general market. However, now the picture as far as the consumer goods stocks is concerned, has changed. Most of these issues have reached their downside objectives as indicated by the broad distributional tops of early 1946. In addition, in a number of cases they have formed fairly sizeable potential base patterns with indications of a good percentage appreciation. While in most cases these potential base areas do not indicate objectives as ligh as the 1946 highs, they still offer chances of of a worthwhile price advanceo Not all issues in the group appear attractive and selection will be an important element. Taking the industries one by one, we find that in the retail trade group such issues as Federated Department Stores, May Department Stores, McCrory, McLellan and Sears Roebuck, are some of the issues that have attractive patterns. In the distilling group, Schenley and Distillers-Seagram are outstanding while Paramount and Twentieth Century-Fox appear to offer the best possibilities in the amusement group. These issues and others will be reviewed in subsequent letters. The general market continues to hold within the confines of the'183-l78 range. In my opinion, its action during the last few days has been quite impressive. There seems to be a slight but growing improvement in investment sentiment. This has been noted in the bond and preferred stock market. The bond averages have been showing a slow but steady rise since early December and this strength has also been apparent recently in second grade bonds and preferred stocks. The traditional signs of a return to confidence and an uptrend is usually a hardening of bond prices followed by a flow of money into secondary bonds and preferred stocks, and the final stage, a rise in common stocks. The wide spread between yields on high grade bonds and common stocks. a aifference of over 3, could make such a shift in investor sentiment a very dynamic one. January 19, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN &GOODWIN Thls momwandum 11 not to b, construed at an offe, or &elicitation of off.rs to buy or .,11 any lecurltles. From time to time Waldon Hoffman & Goodw1n may have lin Inter.st In lome or all of the .curle. mentioned herein. The foregoIng mllterial has been prepared by UI III II metter of Intorrnatlon only. It II based upon Information befleyed rellable but not necenartfy complete. Is not Quarant.,ed liS accurate or final, and 11 not Intended to foreclose Indo pendent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 21, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 21, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 21, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER l5 WALL STREET. NEW YORK S, N, Y. DIgby 4-4141 There are indications of a gradual return of investor confidence. The bond ma,r',et has been in a slow but steady uptrend since December 1st. It is also evidenced in an increasing demand for preferred stocks. If the traditional sequence is followed, this demand will, as confidence increases, make itself felt in the equity market. There were some signs of this in the past week, when several new stock offerings were quickly oversubscribed. In the listed market, the strength, so far, has been largely confined to higher grade issues such as duPont, American Can, and Eastman Kodak. It has not yet seeped over into the more speculative category. Stocks are cheap. It might be said that stocks are absurdly cheap. They are in terms of almost any yardstick you might care to choose. They are cheap in terms of ings, dividends, book value and current asset value. They are cheap in terms of almost e ry other tangible thing. Today, in terms of wheat instead of dollars, it takes less of wheat to buy one share of U.S.Steel now earning 12 a share and paying 5 a share in idends, than it did to buy the same share of U.S.Steel in the depths of the 1932 depress when U.S.Steel showed a loss of 11 a share and paid nothing. Even this is not the CUli,vc picture because it is quite evident that U.S.Steel today is in much better condition f ciallyand physically than.it.w'ls in!1932. U.S. 'Steel is used only as an example. There are hundreds of other stocks that are in te same category. – Stocks are cheap even if, in 1949, earnings decline 20 to 30 due to increased corporate taxes and/or a temporary moderate recession in business. Stocks may remain cheap for quite a while. They will remain cheap until there is a change in investment and specu- lative sentiment. In 1929 and 1930, bUSiness leaders and statesmen and experts of all kept repeating that prosperity was just around the corner. Today the feeling is just the opposite. Some day the fears of an immediate severe depression will subSide. They may subside tomorrow or six months from now after a slight recession fails to broaden into the expected- Gataclysm. In the meantime, stocks are cheap. Stocks will remain cheap until the investors who are waiting for a repetition of the 1920-1921 type of post-war depression are finally convinced that it will not take place or will occur only in an extremely mild form. The backgrounds behind World War I and World War II are quite different. In both cases, the demands of war resulted in a vast expansion of our productive capacity and of our national income. The expansion of World War II was much greater than that of World War I. During the war years of 1940-1945 we built on top of our old economy a new one of almost equivalent size. This tremendous in- crease was needed because the demands of World War II were on a much greater scale than in 1914-1918. Also when war ended, the pent-up demands of World War II were much greater than those of the first war. The war lasted longer, the war damage was much greater and on top of the unfilled needs of four years of war were the unfilled needs of ten previous years of depression. It was these elements that confounded the economists who expected a post-war recession in 1946, 1947 and 1948 and who are still waiting for it now. An equally important factor that few take into conSideration, is the fact that, in the 1919-1929 period, purchasing power failed to keep pace with the enlarged productive capacity. That was the main reason for the ultimate crash in 1929. The prosperity of the 1920s was a relatively restricted one with a large amount of the liquid wealth in the hands of a small pro- portion of the population. Today, the situation is radically changed. Wages have doubled since 1940 and regardless of inflation and increased taxes, the purchasing power of a vast segment of our population has increased tremendously. There are literally millions of new for houses, automobiles, television sets and securities. There is a demand for first three. As for the last, the financial community has done a rather poor job in to create a demand from the smaller and new investor. Wall Street is twenty years- behind the times in its public relations. I believe we are somewhere around the half way mark in a fifteen-year upswing started in 1942. It is a war and post-war market similar to 1914-1929. We are a long distance away from the 1929 phase. There is a complete absence of a Wall Street boom. Instead of high prices, high brokers' loans, public partiCipation, extreme bullishness and vulnerable dealer inventory pOSitions, we have just the opposite. Today we have almost a cash market with practically no margin dealings. There is small volume and no public cipation. Stocks are in stror hands. There are no vulnerable positions. There are large credit balances in brokerage offices. Trust funds in banks have the largest cash position years. There are large amounts of liquid cash awaiting investment opportunities when anticipated recession occurs. Perhaps the investor will have the chance to purchase ties twenty points lower in the averages. On the other hand, there may be quite a one of these days when the investor realizes that the anticipated slump is not going to cur, or that it is going to be comparatively moderate. In the meantime, the smaller investor who is not interested in minor fluctuations hasn't much to lose by buying selected ies at today's prices. Yields are abnormally high and the chances of ultimate profit outweigh the possibility of a temporary slight dip. EDMUND W. TABELL

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 26, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 26, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 26, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5, N. Y. DIgby 4-4141 The good overnight news on U. S. Steel failed to arouse the market from its lethary and Wednesday's session was a great disappointment to many of those bullishly inclined. However, when emotions are forgotten and the graphs of the averages and various marJet leaders observed, one must arrive at the conclusion th2.t nothing has as yet been refinitely decided as to the direction of the next upward move. I am listing below the techical objectives of the averages and of various market leaders. Included in the compilation are the trading ranges in uhich each individual issue has held since late November and the objectives on the upside or downside, depending in which direction the penetration of the rLlge occurs. Those marked with an asterisk have already penetrated the trading range on the upside. It would seem from this indication that the outlook favors those constructively inclined. Out of the twenty-six issues listed eight have penetrated 0'. the upside and none have penetrated on the downside although several, notably in the oil and railroad group, are quite close to a downside penetration. In additio it might be said that the Dow-Jones Industrial average has already penetrated on 'le upside because it has broken out of the long 172-178 range in which it held from late November until early JA.nuary. To constitute a breakout the penetration must be a full point above or below the approximate trading range figures given in the list below. Objective Objective Trading Range Upside Downside Dow-Jones Incustrials Dow-Jones Rails American Can American Smelting American Rolling Atchison, Toeka Mills & S.F. Celanese Celotex Deere & Co. Douglas Aircraft DuPont Electric Auto Lite Electric Power &Light Goodrich Illinois Central Jones & Laughlin Kansas City Southern Missouri-K nas-Texas, pfd Montgomery. W8rd Plymouth Oil Schenley Shell Union Oil Southern Pacific Standard Oil of N.J. …. u. S. Stee1 Youngstown Sheet & Tube 182t-178 54!!- 52 82-78 56-52 26-24 103-99 32-29 27-24 36-32 54-47 183-167 43-40 23-19 61-56 31-28 33-30 42-36 25-21 59-52 47-37 30'-26 40-36 51-47 74-71 72-69 74-69 189 57-5Bt 89-95 60-62 32 llEl-ll8 39 33 41 60 194-196 48-50 28 65-68 37-39 37-39 '5 '. 29-31 73 55 38-40 48 57-59 84 77-81 78-80 17t 50 97-926-24 20 46 35 25 28 31 16 47 35 24-22 34 44 66 These objectives, toget.o3r .with those for the averages are obviously for a shorter term move. This list is an up to date revision of our lit of January 7, 1949. Jnuary 26, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This memorandum have an Iltterest In Is not tome to or be all construed as lift of the securities offer or IOIIc1tetlon of mentioned herein. The offen to buy or sell eny securities. From foreQoln9 material hal been prepared by tTsma. . to a tim. Wellton, Hoffman I Goodwin mJ matter of Information only. It 1. bas upon Information believed tenabl. but not necessarily complete, I, not Quaranteed as accurate or final, and Is not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 28, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 28, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - January 28, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WAll STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Olgby 4-4'4' It becomes rather boring, both to the writer and reader, to con- tinually discuss the meaningless Tluctuations of the market in a narrow trading range. The industrial average has held for nineteen trading days in in the an e 178-182 qually n a range. rrow ra For nge b the pre etween c1e7d4ingandtw1e7n8t12 -, s ix days During the market held these tedious tV/o months of sidewise movement, individual stocks have moved up and down without having any noticeable effect on the general market. There is heavy nearby reSistance on both sides of the market and the stalemate may continue for some time longer. However, I still be- lieve that the market lows for the year will be made in the first three months. In fact, it is entirely possible that the low was reached on the first trading day of the year, January 3rd, when the iQdustrial average reached an intra-day low of 174.37. In fact, ever since late August, 1946 the market has been in a stalemate. Ho Jo Nelson in his The Trader column in the January 24th, 1949 issue of Barron's, states the situation very nicely. He says – Not in over 50 years has the industrial-share index had for two consecutive years such narrow fluctuations percentage- wise as in 1947 and 1948. Additionally and significantly, the price range since prior to Labor Day, 1946, has been percentagewise the'smallest on record. Since August 27, 1946, the industrial average has fluctuated between 193 and 163 – 30 pOints, or 15 in 29 months. Nearest approach was in the 25-month'period between October 14, 1922, and November 10, 1924, when the average moved between 103 and 86 – a 17-point, or 16, range. Sequel to the long compression of 1922-1924 was the famous bull market of the 'twenties'. The stock market is not always rushing up hill and dOl'ln. There have been instances before of long, Sidewise movements. In no other similar period, however, have owners of stocks been so well compensated in the form of high yields. In a true bear market, bonds or cash can be proved superior media to stocks, but such has not been the case for the past few years. Therefore, patience, the rarest of market virtues, is still in order. In the meantime, 'individual issues continue to build up favor- able technical patterns. The issues listed below have been covered in previous letters or will be covered shortly. I believe these issues all offer better than average appreCiation prospects over the inter- mediate term. Thumb nail sketches are available on those issues market with an asterisk. American Home Prod. ,Avco Burlington Mills Cities Service -lfCooper Bessemer Denver & Rio Grande Eastern Airlines Electric Pr & Lt Firestone Tire Firth Carpet Flintkote Fruehauf Trailer Hewitt Robins Holland Furnace Inter.Min. & Chern. January 28, 1949 ClOSing 1/28/4 261/ 6 7/8 18 1/8 43 1/2 27. 1/2 25'3/4 15 22 1/8 48 5/8 17 1/2 25 7/8 19 3/4 21 22 1/2 26 5/8 Joy Manufacturing Lowenstein Paraffine Co Penn-Dixie-Cement Pressed Steel Car Radio Corp st. Regis Paper Schenley Sears Roebuck Sharron Steel Shell Union Oil Sperry Corp Standard Steel Spring Sylvania Electric White Sewing Machine ClOSing 1/28/49 3B 22 5/8 18 1/4 18 3/4 7 1/4 12 3/4 8 1/2 27 1/2 37 3/4 36 1/4 35 I 26 3/4 15 3/8 21 5/8 20 1/4 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN 4

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